Lessons of 1962 War for a possible new Sino-India conflict

appuseth
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Postby appuseth » 01 Dec 2005 07:37

Secondly I have repeatedly heard that the PLAAF has not yet succeeded in air-air refuelling.


I am not too sure about that. The Chinese are pretty close to getting there, if they are not there already. Our friendly Russians are supplying them with the needed equipment:

http://sinodefence.com/airforce/airlift/il78.asp



We can sweeten the path for China if it plays ball.


All I can say is, never trust the Chinese. Backstabbing has always been their favorite strategy. They will talk about India-China improving relations publicly while they simultaneously supply TSP and terrorist groups in the NorthEast with weapons. China's intentions toward India are completely evil; this can be seen by its recent moves vis-a-vis our neighbors. They are directly or indirectly responsible for all of the conflicts India is engaged in right now. First and foremost, China is an expansionist country, and will never miss a chance to steal Indian land. Any talk or show of accepting borders (for example the whole Sikkim on the Indian map issue) will be unofficial, and will not mean anything: It's just a game China likes to play to fool India. Any show of goodwill by China is solely to fool our govt.
The only way to beat China is to beat them at their own game: For example, we can talk about India-China improving relations while we simultaneously secretly ally ourselves with China's enemies like Taiwan and the US, and prepare with them for any potential conflict with China. :twisted:

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Postby shiv » 01 Dec 2005 08:04

appuseth wrote: ally ourselves with China's enemies like Taiwan and the US, and prepare with them for any potential conflict with China. :twisted:


Taiwan has some pretty complex internal politics that would make it difficult for India to think in "direct" terms like "ally with Taiwan against China"

Unlike Pakistan, Taiwan has no interest in allying with distant third rate parties against a 1.2 billion China next door. India can be of use to Taiwan only if we cave enough naval forces in the straits to prvent a Chinese takeover of the Island. Brahmos would be a useful tool in Taiwan's hands though and should be offered to Taiwan.

Taiwan's "democracy" is not all that perfect, and there is deep distrst of the Taiwanese military among the Taiwanese civilian politicians. Taiwan wants to have its elite controlled "democracy" cake and eat it too with trade and friendly relations with China while not being overrun by the Chicom leadership.

China's only "enemies" are the US and Japan and "democracy" to an extent. And you know how much Japan needs India. Russia is no longer a therat to China.

To an extent India has to play ball with the US in Pakistan in order to have any leverage with regard to China.

China has no clear short to medium term weaknesses. Chinas longterm weaknesses are all "extrapolated" or "imagined". Banking collapse, environmental catastrophe or civil unrest from a rural-urban divide. Nothing certain.

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Postby daulat » 01 Dec 2005 15:01

as far as I know, the KMT in Taiwan also support the Chinese position on borders with India... things may have changed, but I have not seen anything of late to counter this view

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Postby shiv » 01 Dec 2005 16:40

daulat wrote:as far as I know, the KMT in Taiwan also support the Chinese position on borders with India... things may have changed, but I have not seen anything of late to counter this view


Quite possibly, and there are senior members of Taiwan military who will come down heavily on the civilian leadership if the formally declare independence from China.

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Postby JCage » 01 Dec 2005 16:47

FWIW, many of the online Taiwanese are arrogant twits, quite content to think that they are better off than India with a supercilious view of their nation and its ability vs the reality, they seem to mimic their mainland bros, w/o realizing how ironic it is. The taiwanese I have met offline have been far better though- some twits, some good ppl- a mixed bag like the rest of us, bu they for the most part are very tied to China. There were reports of secretive Indo - ROC parleys wonder what became of them. They have some decent electronics hardware ability which could be useful to India.

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Postby ManuJ » 01 Dec 2005 23:18

Most Taiwanese have mainland-China roots, and consider themselves Chinese (the real Chinese, as one of them said!). They are emotionally and culturally tied to China, and most of the Taiwanese I met don't mind a re-unification IF China becomes more democratic. In fact, they see re-unification as inevitable, and just hope that it happens on favorable terms for them. What I didn't see in them was a strong sense of Taiwanese nationalism and that to me is a sure sign of the short-lived future of Taiwan as an independent entity.

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Postby daulat » 02 Dec 2005 00:15

KMT assumed all the territorial rights of the previous chinese administration. when forced to flee to taiwan, they set up in their eyes a 'temporary shop'. they even have MP's for parts of the mainland they have never been to. not sure if they are developing an independent mindset... haven't seen enough evidence of that as yet

they will not have different views on tibet, arunachal, aksai chin - although they are more remote and probably do not worry about it too much

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Postby Philip » 02 Dec 2005 09:33

There has reportedly been a secret Chinese study on the casualties that China would suffer during an invasion of Taiwan.The figure was over 20,000 dead.This was reportedly felt too high to be accepted by the Chinese people.The leadership is currently suffering from unrest in the countryside.the latest benzene pollution o a major Chinese river threatening the city of Harbin with a 9 million population,after a chemical plant explosion has been its gravest embarrassment so far.However,one cannot rule a a future Chinese leadership ,or this one in a domestic crisis by diverting attention using a "national threat" The resurgence of Chinese nationalism has been one of the most unsettling features in Asia in the last decade.Demonstrations against Japan in the recent past come to mind.

The new Chinese railway line to Tibet will mark a massive boost to its strategic and offensive posture in Tibet.This awesome feat of engineering will aloow china to rapidly move troops and supplies to Tibet at any time.It will also destroy forever the demographic balance of Tibet in afvour of Chinese immigrants and stifle the Tibetan culture weakening it into a shadow of its former self.The Chinese will rely upon massive missile strikes apart from their land warfare tactics using their large numbers of troops.Chinese missile production is far greater than India's,with the Chinese reportedly being able to produce over 500+ tactical warfare missiles each year.Apart from these ballistic missiles,the new development of long range Chinese cruise missiles,also available to pak poses a new threat.India has to look to defence against both cruise and ballistic missiles and also increase dramatically our production capacity of missiles like Brahmos,etc. What the Chinese should fear most in a war with India is the number of Chinese casualties that they would suffer,both military and civilian.For that,India has to beef up its military strength against China in those theatres most likely to suffer any Chinese mischief.

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Postby Jagan » 02 Dec 2005 17:06

Could the IAF have tipped the balance in 1962? If not, why, and what are the lessons here? An article by Group Captain Bewoor addresses the issue.

Close Air Support in 1962
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Histo ... ewoor.html

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Postby b_karan » 02 Dec 2005 18:32

[Apart from these ballistic missiles,the new development of long range Chinese cruise missiles,also available to pak poses a new threat.India has to look to defence against both cruise and ballistic missiles and also increase dramatically our production capacity of missiles like Brahmos,etc. What the Chinese should fear most in a war with India is the number of Chinese casualties that they would suffer,both military and civilian.For that,India has to beef up its military strength against China in those theatres most likely to suffer any Chinese mischief.[/quote]


What I assume is that most effectibe way to deal with CHINA is to massively bolster the defence bordering the entire N-East , so as to massively thwart any inferious design . We have the army and Airforce version of Brahmos .....but that need to be developed for a longer range.
But the most important thing is the nuclear capable IRBM AGNI 3 . This is the best thing INDIA can have to strike fear in the heat of BEIJING ground zero being TINAMEn SQUARE.
Its only the fear of their CAPITALS derstuction will force the chines to take a good look at us.
Why I am stressing about AGNI is that most of the missile at TIBBET is targetted to major INDIAN cities . So we need to trade off something bigger incase any of out major cities are being attacked.

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Postby ashan » 14 Dec 2005 07:26

What I assume is that most effectibe way to deal with CHINA is to massively bolster the defence bordering the entire N-East , so as to massively thwart any inferious design . We have the army and Airforce version of Brahmos .....but that need to be developed for a longer range.
But the most important thing is the nuclear capable IRBM AGNI 3 . This is the best thing INDIA can have to strike fear in the heat of BEIJING ground zero being TINAMEn SQUARE. Its only the fear of their CAPITALS derstuction will force the chines to take a good look at us. Why I am stressing about AGNI is that most of the missile at TIBBET is targetted to major INDIAN cities . So we need to trade off something bigger incase any of out major cities are being attacked.


Hello friends, though I don't write very often on forums, of late, I have been a voracious reader of-possible scenarios, military aviation & this forum as well. hats off to the gurus of this site

Philip, point well said In my view, of all the chinkis I encountered have an imminent sense of superiority & brashness, even in online forums, meaning the rise of a nationalistic identity & thinking. Their main view is based on AOW, ie to neutralise existing eco & mil powers, be it US, Japan, & become the one & only power on which the world relies. India is a fast-growing regional power only to them. I also think the following wud help:

a. Increase number of effective squadron deployment on himalayan & NE frontier in line with lizard. This shud be supported with deployment of missile stns with IRBMs (maybe agni-3). IA will not be of much help here, except maybe to counter the local post-defence, as the heart of lizard lies 2000 miles (3000 km) upward north. This will instill sense of fear & Mr. commie party leader & party. Also, motorise road to fwd posts to facilitate troop movemt. If they start using it in face-off, we can always take it out (lets see it as a trade off)

b. NEVER, repeat NEVER trust the chinkis. Their collective mindset as a nation stems from the art of war & hence, backstabbing, deceipt, forgery, doublespeak are central to their idea of living & propelling lizard to world-stage. Dont forget innumerable chinki scientists tried by unkil's govt for diverting neutron-bum, & what have you hi-technology state secrets. IRRESPECTIVE OF BHAI-BHAI SPEAK, THEY WILL LIVE TO EXPAND THEIR COUNTRY ONLY.

c. GOI shud: either adopt an upfront limited diplomacy posture & deploy IRBMs on himalayan/NE border, but this will also lead to indirect buildup of lizard forces on other side. It shud actually play same polite game, hit-under-the-belt & deploy IRBMs saying bhai-bhai. Needless to say that GOI needs to do more force projection for a real blue-water navy, & have long-range tactical bomber aircraft in sufficient nos. to be prepared for such eventuality & war-attritions.

d. Lastly, we must remember that this is the time chinkis will be noticing every activity of IAF exercises with unkil & not sitting idle. He knows what is running inside unkils' mind - to counter asian power tilts. As of now, lizard doesnt see short-medium threat from india, just a regional power adjustment, & neither do its billion-$$ cos. India also need to have strong economical standing.

e. However, in the L-T, lizard is GONNA think in terms of art-of war & spread its expansionist wings. India needs to be self-sufficient enough to thwart such an attempt & also have superior relns with unkil to instill fear in lizard's mind. Japan & TSP will anyway not worry for us, russians I dont know.

pls correct me if i am wrong.... :)

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Postby ashan » 14 Dec 2005 07:27

What I assume is that most effectibe way to deal with CHINA is to massively bolster the defence bordering the entire N-East , so as to massively thwart any inferious design . We have the army and Airforce version of Brahmos .....but that need to be developed for a longer range.
But the most important thing is the nuclear capable IRBM AGNI 3 . This is the best thing INDIA can have to strike fear in the heat of BEIJING ground zero being TINAMEn SQUARE. Its only the fear of their CAPITALS derstuction will force the chines to take a good look at us. Why I am stressing about AGNI is that most of the missile at TIBBET is targetted to major INDIAN cities . So we need to trade off something bigger incase any of out major cities are being attacked.


Hello friends, though I don't write very often on forums, of late, I have been a voracious reader of-possible scenarios, military aviation & this forum as well. hats off to the gurus of this site

Philip, point well said In my view, of all the chinkis I encountered have an imminent sense of superiority & brashness, even in online forums, meaning the rise of a nationalistic identity & thinking. Their main view is based on AOW, ie to neutralise existing eco & mil powers, be it US, Japan, & become the one & only power on which the world relies. India is a fast-growing regional power only to them. I also think the following wud help:

a. Increase number of effective squadron deployment on himalayan & NE frontier in line with lizard. This shud be supported with deployment of missile stns with IRBMs (maybe agni-3). IA will not be of much help here, except maybe to counter the local post-defence, as the heart of lizard lies 2000 miles (3000 km) upward north. This will instill sense of fear in Mr. commie party leader & party. Also, motorise road to fwd posts to facilitate troop movemt. If they start using it in face-off, we can always take it out (lets see it as a trade off)

b. NEVER, repeat NEVER trust the chinkis. Their collective mindset as a nation stems from the art of war & hence, backstabbing, deceipt, forgery, doublespeak are central to their idea of living & propelling lizard to world-stage. Dont forget innumerable chinki scientists tried by unkil's govt for diverting neutron-bum, & what have you hi-technology state secrets. IRRESPECTIVE OF BHAI-BHAI SPEAK, THEY WILL LIVE TO EXPAND THEIR POWER ONLY.

c. GOI shud: either adopt an upfront limited diplomacy posture & deploy IRBMs on himalayan/NE border, but this will also lead to indirect buildup of lizard forces on other side. It shud actually play same polite game, hit-under-the-belt & deploy IRBMs saying bhai-bhai. Needless to say that GOI needs to do more force projection for a real blue-water navy, & have long-range tactical bomber aircraft in sufficient nos. to be prepared for such eventuality & war-attritions.

d. Lastly, we must remember that this is the time chinkis will be noticing every activity of IAF exercises with unkil & not sitting idle. He knows what is running inside unkils' mind - to counter asian power tilts. As of now, lizard doesnt see short-medium threat from india, just a regional power adjustment, & neither do its billion-$$ cos. India also need to have strong economical standing.

e. However, in the L-T, lizard is GONNA think in terms of art-of war & spread its expansionist wings. India needs to be self-sufficient enough to thwart such an attempt & also have superior relns with unkil to instill fear in lizard's mind. Japan & TSP will anyway not worry for us, russians I dont know.

pls correct me if i am wrong.... :)

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Postby appuseth » 14 Dec 2005 08:01

Whatever the long-term strategy is, one thing that we need to put a stop to is the Chinese inching forward into Indian territory (beyond current borders). There have been many incursions into Arunachal Pradesh to which GoI's response has just been some complaining to the CCP thugs. At the same time, the Chinese are building military infrastructure at a rapid rate not only on their side, but also in Indian-claimed territory in Arunachal Pradesh (taking advantage of the 'friendly relations' with India) - GoI ofcourse does not do anything: Part of the problem is that the govt. is filled with Communists.

At any rate, we need to build some sort of a fence (not only in AP, but all along India China border) armed with border patrol to stop any further incursions into our territory. After the fence is up, we need to strengthen our military infrastructure along the India-China border.

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Postby Singha » 14 Dec 2005 09:45

on the AAR topic they have done it with J8 and Su27 for a few yrs using Y8 transport a/c. But the recent order for 35 Il76 includes a unknown number of Midas. so they are getting serious on it.

The distance from Assam to economic targets in eastern china is around
3000km. If we can develop and deploy numbers of GLCM in the kh55 class,
conventional "loss of face" strikes on economic targets there like knocking out a couple of power plants to put shenzhen in darkness would be a great lever - many downstream economic and psyops effects.

This is precisely the kind of thing unkil would do first if it wanted to warn the
PRC during a taiwanese adventure.

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Postby Arun_S » 22 Dec 2005 00:53

Jagan wrote:Could the IAF have tipped the balance in 1962? If not, why, and what are the lessons here? An article by Group Captain Bewoor addresses the issue.

Close Air Support in 1962
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Histo ... ewoor.html
Kudos to Gp Captain Bewoor for asking straight and tough question and need for introspection. A very thought provoking article.

Preparing for contingencies and war required foresight and strategic thinking Something that is unfortunately not pervasive in IAF officer corp psyche. New tactics and practice to push expanded application is IMHO local commanders responsibility (and not Air staff's responsibility), an area they are not tasked and measured on. I sense most of them do not operate beyond the sandbox set by precedence or external power to be. Not sure if IAF has a culture to encourages experimentation and forgive sometimes failure in the process.

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Postby Raj Malhotra » 22 Dec 2005 13:08

Arun_S wrote:
Jagan wrote:Could the IAF have tipped the balance in 1962? If not, why, and what are the lessons here? An article by Group Captain Bewoor addresses the issue.

Close Air Support in 1962
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Histo ... ewoor.html
Kudos to Gp Captain Bewoor for asking straight and tough question and need for introspection. A very thought provoking article.

Preparing for contingencies and war required foresight and strategic thinking Something that is unfortunately not pervasive in IAF officer corp psyche. New tactics and practice to push expanded application is IMHO local commanders responsibility (and not Air staff's responsibility), an area they are not tasked and measured on. I sense most of them do not operate beyond the sandbox set by precedence or external power to be. Not sure if IAF has a culture to encourages experimentation and forgive sometimes failure in the process.


My argument was that the use of IAF would have made the war costlier for China. This would have prevented a walk-over and weakened their fronts in Korea, south east asia and taiwan.

assuming that Chinese air element was stronger than india, even then we should have used IAF

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Postby Aditya G » 22 Dec 2005 13:31

A subject that has intrigued me most about the 1962 air 'war' is the role that was played by Kalinga air, and what potential contribution rest of the civilian airways could have chipped in.

The 1947/48 conflict could not have been fought without IAF Dakota ops. imho IAF won us that war. the IAF was severly constrained by the performance limit of C-47s ... such as the inability to support Skardu garrison.

Coming to 1962, we see that the tonnage IAF could support was woefully inadequet to support the Army's plans on the ground..... one of the greatest blunder we made was not to induct C-46 Commando aircraft in the IAF.

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Postby daulat » 22 Dec 2005 15:18

Raj - yes we should have. but bewoor makes the point that we had not trained to do so in any realistic way. his contention is that the iaf tactical element would have been highly ineffective at best.

this was not a crossing of the yalu river amongst the rolling korean hills, the geography was much more severe. i don't think that with the air power and training available we could have interdicted into tibet at all. if the chinese had begun air raids into the plains of n india, then we may have had more of a chance, but that did not happen.

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Postby Willy » 22 Dec 2005 15:31

Brahmos to Tawain? That would be a big mistake. There are to many chinese moles in all aspects of Tawainese life including the military . Even the US does not supply Taiwan top of the line equipment. Remember the Aegis v/s Kidd class ? Taiwan had to settle for the Kidd.

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Chines encircling of INDIA Is compelte

Postby b_karan » 22 Dec 2005 16:53

b. NEVER, repeat NEVER trust the chinkis. IRRESPECTIVE OF BHAI-BHAI SPEAK, THEY WILL LIVE TO EXPAND THEIR POWER ONLY.


Recently I read an article saying that CHINES encircling of INDIA is almost complete.
Recently they supplied massive arms and ammunitation to NEPAL to counter maoisit threat. NEPAL is more inclined to have help from CHINA than INDIA.....as unlike INDIA it does not sing the
DEMOCRACY tunes..much to the likeness of the NEPAL KING.
Its not only CHINA but also PAKISTAN that is fishing in the trouble NEPAL by providing arms and ammunitation .

In the EAST we have BANGLADESH ..............China is about to sign a treaty of Friendship and Mutual cooperation with it and along with NEPAL.
With BANGLADESH the treaty will allow CHINES NAVAL vessel access to Chittagong port .

All of u wd b knowing that CHINA is the largest arms and ammunitation supplier to BANGALDESH.

So now even BANGLADESH and NEPAL and in its fold ....................so who is left .
There is PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN in the WEST AND PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF NEPAL in the north
and bloody BANGLADESH in the EAST ......and ...deep down the BAY OF BENGAL .....we have COCO ISLAND.......
...the CHINES....electronic listening post.

So what else proof does our Respectable INDIAN GOVT needs . May be this is the clear example of the failure of INDIA FOREIGN POLICY............ but atleast our mighty INDIAN ARMED FORCES are well aware.
so friends the time is not far away when the two giant will cross the SWORD again.......but this time I belive they will be fighting with the modern day INDIAN ARMED FORCES.......and at least our armed forces are well prepared .
So guys BEWARE THE DRAGON ARE HERE.....................its time for INDIA to sharpen its sword.

"MAY THE FORCE BE ALWAYS WITH US.".................Jai Hind

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Postby R Patel » 24 Dec 2005 15:28

Something I have been wanting to do for a long time. While we are takling about China, I thought let me compare of what India has and China has. Here is a list of stuff I made from FAS.org and BR. Number says it all on where India stands and will stand should there be any conflect. I took the highest number available. From FAS, I took the projected number for year 2010. Same data was not found for India and got too tired to look for Pakistan. Others can help.


Navy Type India China Pakistan
1 Destroyers 11 29
2 Frigates 5 43
3 Guided Missile Boats 39 55
4 Submarines 28 62
5 Amphibious Warfare 19 29
6 Naval Aviation 730
7 Personnel 55000 250000
8 AC Carriers 2 0
9 Corvettes 4
10 Patrol Boats – All 27
11 Mine Countermeasure 22
12 Transport Ships 2
Army
1 Armour 11000
2 Armour Fighting Vehicles 6500
3 Artillery – Self Propelled Not Found
4 Artillery - Towed 14500
5 Artillery Rockets 3500
6 Anti Aircraft Artillery 10000
7 Personnel 1100000 1700000
Missiles Estimated as of 80s.
1 ICBM 0 20
2 SLBM 0 24
3 Theater 0 400
4 IRBM 75
Air force
1 Nuke Capable AC 444 220
2 Other Aircrafts 1442 3525
3 Personnel 170000 400000

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Postby Shankar » 24 Dec 2005 17:06

In real world the best thing is ofcourse not to trust anyone but if we allow the disasttrous war of 62 to cloud our judgement may be we shall be making a big mistake . Nuclear deterence against china is effective only to a limit since they would be more than willing to use theirs if given a chance and the ressults will not be any good to us . At the moment we are both on a steep economic high growth path and none would like to upset the apple cart read us investments and technology flow. The new generation of chinese are more american than sereotype chinese we assume them to be .They love good living ,good food and good entertainment and slowly demanding the right to know whya particular policy is being followed by the govt ,it is only a matter of time they will make their presence felt in the corridors of bejing by their sheer economic clout .Maybe in a matter of 5-7 years.

To my mind the next conflict will not be a traditional land battle like in 62 more likely it will a swift and decisive naval engagement in the gulf or indian ocean region when PLAN may try to choke off our sea routes of communication incomming crudes or outgoing exports to japan and asean countries and then indian navy wil have to move in very fast and very decisively to neutralise the threat in somewhat offensive manner while the status quo is maintained by the army and airforce on theeastern front .Maybe that is why we are spending more and more on new vessels ,air to air refueling and the subs . But the key to winning the battle may lie with the carriers .

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Postby Paul » 24 Dec 2005 17:25

The recent performance by the IAF in Kalaikunda may have bought us a few more precious years. No way the chinese will tangle with us unless they are reasonably assured of an easy tactical victory in a theatre away from home.

The next theatre could be in/around SE Asia....maybe south of myanmar. It is reasonable close to the chinese mainland and they may get to fly through Myanmar airspace.

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Postby RayC » 24 Dec 2005 18:02

The China Tibet Railway line includes the Tanggula Mountain Pass, which at 5,072 meters (16,640 feet) above sea level is the world's highest rail track. The line will also include the 3,345-metre Yangbajing No. 1 tunnel, which is 4,264 metres above sea level and located 80 kilometres NW of the regional capital, Lhasa.

More than 960 km, or over 80% of the railway, is built at an altitude of more than 4,000 meters, and over half of it is laid on frozen earth.

The 815 km section from Xining, Qinghai to Golmud, Qinghai opened to traffic in 1984. Construction of the remaining 1,080 km (670 mile) section from Golmud to Lhasa started on 29 June 2001. Though this section was finished in mid-October 2005, signalling work and track testing requires a further 6 to 12 months.

Rail-laying in Xizang was launched from both directions, towards Tanggula Mountain and Lhasa, from Anduo Railway Station on 22 June 2004. On 24 August 2005, track was laid at the railway's highest point, the Tanggula Mountain Pass, which is 5,072 metres above sea level.[1]

Thirty railway stations are to be built, among them Tanggula Mountain railway station, which at 5,068 m will be the world's highest (Cóndor station, at 4,786 m, on the Rio Mulatos-Potosí line, Bolivia, and La Galera at 4,781 m in Peru being the next highest).

Bombardier Transportation is to provide 361 high-altitude passenger carriages with special enriched-oxygen and UV-protection systems, to be delivered between December 2005 and May 2006. Of these, 53 will be luxury sleeper carriages for tourist service[2]. When signalling and track testing is complete, trains travelling in the frozen earth areas are expected to attain maximum speeds of 100 kilometres per hour. On the non-frozen earth areas, speeds are expected to reach 120 kilometres per hour.

The construction of the railway is part of the China Western Development strategy, an attempt to develop the western provinces of China, which are much less developed than eastern China. When the line is opened, it will be possible to travel from Lhasa to Beijing in 50 hours. The railway will later be extended to Zhangmu via Shigatse (Xigaze) to the west, and Dali via Nyingchi (Linzhi) to the east.

The map is at:
http://www.savetibet.org/documents/pdfs ... wayMap.pdf

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Postby uddu » 24 Dec 2005 18:15

---

ADMIN NOTE I fail to see the connection to the posted link and this thread. Please check the relevance of information/ link before posting it here.

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Postby JCage » 25 Dec 2005 09:48

Awesome article.

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Postby R Patel » 27 Dec 2005 02:53

No way Chinese worry about stuff like some exercise in KK. I still thing they have sufficient advantage in number in all level that they can teach India a lesson or two any time they need to. Let's look at it this way. China works heavily on Sun Tzu philosophy. Thinking along the line, they know well the advantage they have over us. Look at some statements made by previous Chinese leaders, including the one by Jang Xeming, I can crush India anytime. For one to make such statement, he needs to be sure about things. So we can day dream all we wish but as far as I am concern, until India achieves numerical equality, India does not have any shot.

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Postby Anoop » 27 Dec 2005 02:56

R Patel wrote: Look at some statements made by previous Chinese leaders, including the one by Jang Xeming, I can crush India anytime. For one to make such statement, he needs to be sure about things.


I proclaim "I can crush China anytime". For me to make such a statement, I need to be sure about things. QED. Oh, btw, my Kautilya's is bigger than your Sun Tzu's.

What has BRF come to?

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Postby satya » 27 Dec 2005 03:22

R Patel,

the nos u have given regarding China's defence forces r not doubt look impressive but put them on a high mountainous battelfield and u will see these numbers going up in the wind , mountain warfare is an entirely different ballgame and there was one very good article tht was put in by another member of this forum regarding Kargil [ its posted under Kargil battle on this forum] read tht first and u will understand , all the logistical nightmare and low physical stamina and not so effective Air Force usage even for USAF in Afghan moutains.

To give a general idea , u need 1:8 in manpower for a proper mountain attack , assume a min. of 100K indian troops bordering China , PLA need atleast 800K manpower to attack and breach the defences , its a general idea ok. So dont freak out tht fast as if chinkies r coming here tomm. and another question for u why China wana attack India now , after 43 yrs ? any reason particularly when the whole world opinion will be against them and India is looked upon more favorably in comparison to China from a defence point of view in US and Russia?

And then they r chinkies , '' in every way they r smaller than us '' u know wht i mean :twisted:

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Postby Babui » 27 Dec 2005 04:29

Satya - the Chinese logistics network (more roads with many all weather ones) along the Indo-Tibet border is far better developed than on our side of the border. In fact, we have very few roads paralleling(sp?) the border. Truth is - during an attack - the Chinese can, possibly, build up 8:1 superiority in localized areas and continuously reinforce it. No matter - how experienced our units are in mountain warfare, we will be overrun. As recently as 5 yrs ago (shortly after the Kargil war) - there were reports of Chinese buildup in the Ladhak-Tibet border (mostly reported in The Telegraph). The reports (discussed on BR) basically stated that, in response, we were only able to send a reinforced company for 'observation' - whereas the Chinese had a road running parallel to their area of ops implying that they could build up very quickly.
It is only the last 5 years, that I've read news reports in our media, that the govt has woken up to this lack of roads and is starting to build closer to the border areas.
In summary - the Chinese can numerically outnumber us and 'press' an attack. We may be able to attack but with poor logistics, we will not be able to advance to far.

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Postby satya » 27 Dec 2005 05:05

Thnxx Babui bout tht piece of info, well this definitely gives the chinkies definitely advantage but point is how much will it be helpful in ''offensive operation' ? considering we dont have tht developed road network on our side , so say if some how IA is able to achieve a breakthrough then dont u think tht very road network will work to our advantage where as non existent road network on indian side will definitely slowdown the chinese advance considerably ?I think this issue of road development is a ''double edge sword'' .

Secondly , ok from time to time PLA has tried to test IA by such brave posturing but if we r so weak why has China waited for past 43 years not to attack us and settle the border dispute militarily or is it tht PLA is now better prepared than in past and IA has lost its edge if there was any.

My best guess is IA always had a ' stalemate scenario' for Chinese border? Rest we can all make some guesses , but if these so called reports and gossips from cousins n frds in IA r to be believed then my frd India has more atleast ''3-4 ghost corps' tht actually have soldiers in them rather than mere ghosts and tht was corraborated by 3 different sources to me .

My best guess is IA's strength is under reported . My 2 anas. :D

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Postby Anoop » 27 Dec 2005 05:20

Gentlemen,

The Chinese infrastructure build-up, particularly the Golmud-Lhasa railway line and the improvement of the Barhabise-Kodari section of the Raxual-Kathmandu-Khasa highway in Nepal presents a serious threat to Indian security concerns in Nepal.

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/nepal_pol90.jpg

Nepal sees it's economic interests as being linked to its status as a transit between China and India and is concerned that its access to a seaport is dependent on India's whims.

http://www.ifa.org.np/pdf/new4.pdf

As always, this threat is less military and more political. It marks another stage in Nepal's journey from India's sphere of influence into China's.

In 1988-89, when reports of Nepalese arms purchases from China (including AA systems) and the secret (i.e. not openly admitted) intelligence sharing agreement between the two countries was reached, India resorted to an economic blockade of Nepal that lasted over a year. Chinese assistance to Nepal during this time was more diplomatic than substantial, determined strongly by (a) lack of an economic route to supply essential items like fuel, due to the lack of Tibetan infrastructure and (b) due to the CCP's concerns about the Tiananmen after-effects.

Today, neither constraints on China exist. That means, coupled with the domestic turmoil in Nepal, King Gyanendra can afford to defy India's concerns and obtain as much weaponry from China as he wishes (as he has already done, by buying Chinese small arms). What is more relevant from India's point of view is what Nepal gives in return to China that could impact Indian security concerns adversely.

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Postby R Patel » 27 Dec 2005 12:40

Anoop,

my Kautilya's is bigger than your Sun Tzu's

Relax bro. When was the last time you have read both?

There is one big problem with yours and mine. Chinese politicians follow Sun Tzu lot more then any Indian babus follow Kautilya. If you have read Sun Tzu then you will know how your enemy thinks, not entirely but you can think of what they are thinking. That is why numbers are necessary factor.

Satiya, the same ratio of 1 to 8 applies equally to India too. What makes you think for every one Indian solder they will need 8 chinks. Like to see your reasons why it will work in India’s favor only and not other way around since they will be fighting in the same mountains.

IMHO, government not building sufficient roads to these border area shows a defensive psyche, not along the line of Kautilya’s method of governance.

This thread is not about when China will attack; it is about what ifs, hence my post of where India stands. There could be many reasons China has not attacked India in 43 years but I am sure it was not because they were scared.

Now, if you look at my post, I also have NaPakistan column left blank. The China factor is also associated to TSP. We all know India has numerical advantage over TSP in all possible way. Yet, why has it not been able to do anything yet about anything, including terrorist problem. I am sure you will agree with me that there is lots of other pressure form India’s neighbours and WEST. So, IMVVHO, until India achieves numerical equality to both, China and TSP, it is a loser should the war start. The key word is should..

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Postby satya » 27 Dec 2005 13:52

oh yaar Patil ,

india army is 'DEFENDING' not in ''offensive '' operation ,its a big difference yaar.

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Postby R Patel » 27 Dec 2005 14:58

Satyagi,

samaj gaye bhai lakin Defence mai bhi to strong hona jaruri hai na

The point I am trying to make is, until India gets numerical equality to China TSP combined, India will always defending against China. Mai yea soch ta houn.

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Postby Anoop » 27 Dec 2005 17:55

R Patel,

It appears that sarcasm passes right by you. Please give us your interpretation ot Sun Tzu and specifically how it relates to the issue of numbers. Then tell me how the numbers issue figure more importantly in the India-China context than (a) prime real estate e.g. Tawang pass and (b) political influence in Nepal that would open up a 500 mile frontier in China's favor or in Bhutan that would hold Indian forces in a pincer on both sides.

This is a serious thread, so please try to remain serious.

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Postby NRao » 27 Dec 2005 18:10

Has anyone comsidered occupying Nepal, IF China becomes too much of a threat? IF that is a possibility, when does it become one?

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Postby Kunal » 27 Dec 2005 18:19

Dont read too much into sun-tse or our dear ex-chairman/woman/ugly-pig. The reality is that GOI ppl (i.e. the ones who matter), are quite aware of such things as chinese mentality and their cultural affiliation to a use of fear/terrror tactics.

Yellow boys think their methods are sound, and that their tactics have been working for a while now. Unfortunately, they have an inability to digest the indian way of forgettting things very quickly and just getting on with it. Thus all of their encirclement and string of pearls obsession and our complacency.

However, very recently, the sleeping elephant has woken up, thanks wholly to prodding and pushing from the international community. There are clear signs now, that we are slowly turning the tables on the 'everything must be great in our country' country. And they are scared (they scare easy because they understand the basics of fear much better). Their behaviour has suddenly changed to being more accomodating on the diplomatic level and more aggressive on the military front. They pretend to welcome us into the many internatonal organizations cropping up in their spere of influence while deeply resenting us. We have started on the path of confrontation and whether we like it or not, we must not back down because that is victory in chinese minds, that they may overcome us by scaring us. India will keep bumbling along politically and diplomatically, but the positions we have taken against the monstrosity that is China, will only be strengthened by the powers that be. The reason is quite simple: we did not start on this path because of clarity of thought among our leadership, both political and administrative, but because many nations with a strong resentment of chinese power need us to take the idiot-dragon on, and we will continue to do this because of their suport and encouragement. Many among this league of nations are superficially pro-china, yet will give anything to keep china off their backs.

The lessons to be learnt about indo-sino confrontation rather than conflict are not from 62' alone but from the innumerable interferences of the chinese government and its proxies across the face of this continent. If we can keep the resentment of that country from fading, we have already won.

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Postby Anoop » 27 Dec 2005 19:27

Niranjan,

I cannot forsee such a situation - it would imply a disastrous failure of Indian foreign policy. I don't know how, but we need a lot more political acumen and a whole host of carrots and some really big sticks. As an example of Nepal's playing favorites (something that we can't wish away, but only make sure that we are the favorites), see

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/NEWS/newsrf.php?newsid=4909

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Postby ShibaPJ » 27 Dec 2005 20:47

Kunal wrote:.... Their behaviour has suddenly changed to being more accomodating on the diplomatic level and more aggressive on the military front. They pretend to welcome us into the many internatonal organizations cropping up in their spere of influence while deeply resenting us...

I wish, Chincom would have atleast pretended so. They were the spoilers (alongwith US) against India getting into UNSC. They have always been against India's N-status. Chincom sponsered UN resolutions against '98 Pokhran tests, created hurdles in NSG against the Indo-US civilian N-energy front, and recently even have tried to block India from ASEAN (ASEAN+3 as opposed to ASEAN + 6). I don't recall even one instance where they have really been accommodating.


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