Indian Railways Thread

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby manjgu » 13 Dec 2015 07:41

Karthik..maybe u have a point. maybe HSR was allright if the rest of the indian transportation system was of acceptable quality as is the case in china and japan or european countries. Given the pitiable quality of indian roads and railways, Why cant GOI find investment to improve the existing infra? rather than going for such publicity stunts.

India cant afford losses which other countries can...please dont stretch the point too much abt public transportation not making profits.

I boarded SwaranJayanthi express from vizag to delhi ... arrived in delhi after a 5 hour delay at around 10 pm instead of 5 pm ...with shitty food on the way..cockroaches running around in the compartment.. and smelly toilets..the english style toilet had broken seat!! ... in 3 tier a/c. flush not working in indian toilet ( which i complained to the cleaning staff)... we need to first get the basics right instead of the this grandiose schemes benefitting a tiny minority...

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Karthik S » 13 Dec 2015 07:51

manjgu wrote:Karthik..maybe u have a point. maybe HSR was allright if the rest of the indian transportation system was of acceptable quality as is the case in china and japan or european countries. Given the pitiable quality of indian roads and railways, Why cant GOI find investment to improve the existing infra? rather than going for such publicity stunts.

India cant afford losses which other countries can...please dont stretch the point too much abt public transportation not making profits.

I boarded SwaranJayanthi express from vizag to delhi ... arrived in delhi after a 5 hour delay at around 10 pm instead of 5 pm ...with shitty food on the way..cockroaches running around in the compartment.. and smelly toilets..the english style toilet had broken seat!! ... in 3 tier a/c. flush not working in indian toilet ( which i complained to the cleaning staff)... we need to first get the basics right instead of the this grandiose schemes benefitting a tiny minority...


manjgu, the IR taking steps to address the very issue you have mentioned. Recently IR cleared proposal to redevelop 400 railway stations, deal with google to provide wifi in 100 stations, bio-digester toilets, new locomotives etc. Overall IR has development plans worth around $130 billion dollars in the next 5 years. And all these projects are not mutually exclusive. These developments can go on parallely.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SSundar » 13 Dec 2015 23:00

manjgu wrote:40000 passengers a day on HSR paying Rs 1800 ( assuming this figure holds till the HSR is completed) for the journey !! Rs 1800 is approx the fare of delhi>amritsar shatabdi express executive class...total no of shatabadis is 2 per day carrying about 300 executive class passengers..unless there is general economic prosperity ...not only businessmen but also families being able to afford this kind of travel , HSR will not be successful.


Manjgu, if you are referring to market size/demand, please see Suraj's post earlier on the supply side. There is no indication that 300 seats x 2 trains per day is what this market demands. IR is not a private entity that dynamically adjusts supply to demand. That is why you typically see that train tickets are sold out weeks or months before the travel date on many Indian routes.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby member_28911 » 13 Dec 2015 23:25

Fare will be 1.5 x Executive class of Mumbai to Ahmedabad Shatabdi Express
which will be Rs.1920 x 1.5 = Rs. 2880

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby manjgu » 14 Dec 2015 07:36

Ssundar..i agree with what u say..that IR does not dynamically adjust capacity as per demand. yes its true that seats are booked in advance. But let me tell u as i do delhi>amritsar shatabadi very often, the WL on shatabadi in worst of times is not more than 130. if IR was to run another 1 or 2 shatabadi daily on this route, the seats will go empty. there are simply not enough people to pay this kind of money ... the size of indian economy, the number of rich people is simply not there to justify such fancy trains. we need to first get the basics right..trains running on time, faster trains, clean trains, as i said if IR can make existing infra better and do mumbai>ahemdabad in 4 hrs , it will be more useful. catch train at 7 am reach mumbai by 11 as offices open and return at 7 pm and back in ahemdabad at 11 pm. who needs 2 hrs??

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Kashi » 14 Dec 2015 08:08

manjgu wrote:Ssundar..i agree with what u say..that IR does not dynamically adjust capacity as per demand. yes its true that seats are booked in advance. But let me tell u as i do delhi>amritsar shatabadi very often, the WL on shatabadi in worst of times is not more than 130. if IR was to run another 1 or 2 shatabadi daily on this route, the seats will go empty. there are simply not enough people to pay this kind of money ... the size of indian economy, the number of rich people is simply not there to justify such fancy trains. we need to first get the basics right..trains running on time, faster trains, clean trains, as i said if IR can make existing infra better and do mumbai>ahemdabad in 4 hrs , it will be more useful. catch train at 7 am reach mumbai by 11 as offices open and return at 7 pm and back in ahemdabad at 11 pm. who needs 2 hrs??


The point is not everyone wants to do that kind of travel. The Delhi-Gujarat-Mumbai section is amongst the busiest in terms of passenger traffic- rail and air. As I mentioned in my previous post, roughly 1 lakh people travel between Gujarat and Mumbai for business daily. Your assumption is that all of them will travel in the morning and be back in the evening, but if the entire lot is stuck to travelling at those times, then there will not be enough trains or room for them in the trains, which means some will have to take a later train or stay overnight. This adds to the cost of business.

Moreover, travelling four hours either way (howsoever comfortable) will sap out their energies. A two hour journey means that these folks can afford to leave their homes/businesses at 9 in the morning, arrive in Mumbai by 11, be done by 8 and back home by 10. An extra one hour of the day for business even if they choose a relaxed schedule.

If IR wants to add more trains, they'll need to add more tracks, unless they can find a way of running two trains on top of each other!! And As far as I am aware, track doubling.tripling/quadrupling is going on in many places and can continue, since the funds for HSR are separate and as a part of FDI. IR can concentrate on it's core infrastructure, leaving the HSR to the joint Indo-Japanese consortium.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2015 09:09

Image

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Jayram » 14 Dec 2015 09:29

Has any decisions been made on land acquisition for this? That might be the shoals that this project like many others before will have to negotiate carefully with attendant - (forever?) delays.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Naveen » 14 Dec 2015 09:31

The above is not an apple-to-apple comparison. Rs. 98,000 crores will be a multi-year investment by the consortium. If you divide this over 5-7 years, it will suddenly start looking very reasonable.
Also, the social sector spending is now highly devolved to states after the 14th Finance Commission implementation. So the comparison if any should be done w.r.t. the annual national (centre+states) spend on education, health etc. and the above graph will show an inference opposite to what it is trying to say.
My 2 cents.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Dec 2015 09:35

chetak wrote:Image

This is a stupid chart that has no business being posted here. All but the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train line are government spending. It just serves to mislead that GoI is spending that money, when it is not.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SSundar » 14 Dec 2015 09:48

Suraj wrote:This is a stupid chart that has no business being posted here. All but the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train line are government spending. It just serves to mislead that GoI is spending that money, when it is not.


Check the source, saar. Herr Omidyar's poodle site.

Intolerant Modi is throwing money on fancy projects that don't help the Indian people :(( :(( :(( . Please vote for nice, pro-poor leaders like our agent Fordiwal onlee.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2015 10:56

May be that I am ignorant but where exactly does it say the GOI is not spending the money?? Are the japanese giving the loan to themselves??

The IR has created the HSRC

High Speed Rail Corporation of India Limited (HSRC) has been formed on the directions of Ministry of Railways, Government of India, for development and implementation of high speed rail projects.

This Special Purpose Vehicle has been incorporated in 2012 as a subsidiary of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited which is a Mini-Ratna public sector enterprise of Government of India.


Objectives

To undertake feasibility studies and techno-economic investigations and prepare Detailed Project Reports and Bankability Reports of selected corridors for introduction of High Speed trains in India.
To plan, design and freeze technical parameters for High Speed Rail Systems including fixed assets, rolling stock and operations.
To develop financing models, explore PPP options, coordinate with stake holders and funding agencies and obtain various Government approvals.
Project development, project execution, construction, upgradation, manufacture, operation and maintenance of High Speed Rail Systems on existing as well as new rail corridors.
To enter into and carry on all businesses related to High Speed Rail Systems and other rail based traffic as may be approved by Government of India or RVNL or any other Authority created by the Government for such activities.


Japan offers India soft loan for $15 billion bullet train in edge over China
By Reuters | 23 Oct, 2015, 03.47AM IST


NEW DELHI: Japan has offered to finance India's first bullet train, estimated to cost $15 billion, at an interest rate of less than 1 percent, officials said, stealing a march on China, which is bidding for other projects on the world's fourth-largest network.

Tokyo was picked to assess the feasibility of building the 505-kilometre corridor linking Mumbai with Ahmedabad, the commercial capital of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state, and concluded it would be technically and financially viable.

The project to build and supply the route will be put out to tender, but offering finance makes Japan the clear frontrunner.

The two projects are part of a 'Diamond Qaudrilateral' of high speed trains over 10,000 km of track that India wants to set up connecting Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata. Japan has offered to meet 80 percent of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad project cost, on condition that India buys 30 percent of equipment including the coaches and locomotives from Japanese firms, officials said.

Japan's International Cooperation Agency, which led the feasibility survey, said the journey time between Mumbai and Ahmedabad would be cut to two hours from seven. The route will require 11 new tunnels including one undersea near Mumbai.

"What complicates the process is Japanese linking funding to use of their technology. There must be tech transfer," said Mital



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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Dec 2015 11:07

The fundamental problem with that chart is that it characterizes the matter as a zero sum case. In other words, money spent on bullet train construction is money that wasn't spent on health or education. That is not true. The spending for the bullet train is a Japanese FDI+soft loan. It is NOT government spending coming out of the annual budget. GoI has committed a very small figure to HSR feasibility study in the 2015-16 budget, and that's the sum total of GoI's spending here. The rest is all risk capital invested by the Japanese and Chinese conducting feasibility studies in the hope of winning a contract. The Japanese just happened to win this one with their commitment to generate substantial railway technology FDI and entirely fund the project themselves.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby johneeG » 14 Dec 2015 11:12

So basically that chart is saying that centre is able to get soft loans on Railways more easily than other sectors?

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Dec 2015 11:18

johneeG wrote:So basically that chart is saying that centre is able to get soft loans on Railways more easily than other sectors?

It doesn't say that.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby johneeG » 14 Dec 2015 11:25

Suraj wrote:
johneeG wrote:So basically that chart is saying that centre is able to get soft loans on Railways more easily than other sectors?

It doesn't say that.


So, does the chart show that Govt needs more soft loans in railways compared to other sectors?

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Dec 2015 11:29

No.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2015 12:02

Suraj wrote:
johneeG wrote:So basically that chart is saying that centre is able to get soft loans on Railways more easily than other sectors?

It doesn't say that.



It may not be part of the budget this year or the next but surely, as the project kicks off and the repayment starts to kick in, it will form part of the budget. This GOI has to pay it's seed money of $3 Billion and the rest comes as a loan with many conditionalities.

The risk is comparatively minor only as far as the feasibility study goes but if the actual running of the HSR does not pan out as envisaged, the risk is very considerable for the GOI and the Indian taxpayer will pay through the nose. The costing of the tickets as seen in many public fora is highly suspect.

It's win win for japan as they get to keep out the chinese and also boost their own industry while also pandering to Modi's "make in India" . Tech transfer will not happen as the japanese will not part with the family silver.



From wiki, for what it is worth.

look at the price of the ticket, for instance. ( it may be just one opinion, but it's still out there!!) some predictions are ridiculously low as some others are ridiculously high.

Also, anybody predicting ticket and project costs this early in the game, is simply pissing into the wind because between now and 2023, the risk variables are not that easy to quantify, what with the world economic and political situation being highly unpredictable and specially India's own political situation, with a vindictive scamgress and an equally vindictive opposition in full cry and the japanese mostly depending on Modi to smooth the political landscape. Much will also depend on the price of oil and other commodities.

The feasibility study is being paid for by the GOI on a 50/50 basis and the PROJECT RISK is COMPLETELY Indian. The loan has to be paid back, come what may.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_India#Cost

History

This corridor, along with 5 other corridors, was introduced for feasibility study in the 2009–2010 Rail Budget by then Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav. The 650 km long high speed rail corridor was proposed to run from Pune railway station to Ahmedabad railway station via Mumbai. The point at which this route would touch Mumbai was to be decided when the feasibility report was prepared. The pre-feasibility study for the Ahmedabad–Mumbai–Pune corridor was completed by a consortium of RITES, Italferr and Systra.[2] The top speed expected for the corridor was up to 350 kmph.[3] The proposed stations included Lonavla on Mumbai–Pune section and Surat, Bharuch and Vadodara on Mumbai–Ahmedabad section. It was proposed to have 32 services between Mumbai and Ahmedabad. Railway officials also proposed extending the corridor up to Bangalore.[4]

Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the SNCF carried out studies on the project.[5][6]

JICA officials visited Mumbai in January 2014 to discuss the details of the project and visit some of the proposed route. On 21 January, following several meeting between JICA and Indian Railways officials, it was proposed to originate the corridor at the Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) in Mumbai. There will be 11 stations on the route, of which 7 will be in Mahararashtra. The team proposed other options for originating the line at either Bandra Terminus or Lokmanya Tilak Terminus, if the BKC option was unfeasible.[7] Air-conditioned bullet trains are expected to operate in the corridor at speeds of 320 kmph, enabling commuters to traverse the 534-km distance in 2 hours.[8]

The Maharashtra government was in favour of connecting the line with Belapur in order to bring high speed rail to Navi Mumbai. However, railway officials were opposed to the Belapur detour. Officials also discussed the need to ensure that the terminal at BKC would be connected to Line 3 of the Mumbai Metro, enabling commuters from South Mumbai to reach BKC. The location of the terminal at Ahmedabad has not yet been decided. The Railways is in favour of constructing it "a little away" from the current Ahmedabad railway station.[9]

It was reported on May 28 in the International Rail Journal that the project was approved by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a meeting with the chairman of the High Speed Rail Corporation of India.[10]

On July 20, 2015, a joint Japanese-Indian survey team recommended a Shinkansen-style system for the Mumbai-Ahmedabad line, including the adoption of Automatic train control and dedicated tracks.[11]

India may go with 500 km/h high-speed railway system as the standard high-speed railway for the country, as first railway line will be used as a reference for further development. Japan has funded $5 Billion for 65 km long 500 km/h railway line in US and waived the license fee for the technology in US.[12]

Mumbai may have underground corridor to have high speed rail start from the CST terminal.[13]

The fare of the bullet train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad is₹6800. [ 1 time ] and return ticket is₹13,500[citation needed]

It is estimated that by 2023 around 40,000 passengers are expected to avail this service everyday and accordingly it would be a financially viable service.
Cost

The project is estimated to cost ₹98000 crore (US$15 billion).[14]

In December 2015, Japan agreed to provide US$12 billion for the project at a very low interest rate of 0.1% over 50 years and a moratorium on repayments up to 15 years

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Dec 2015 12:20

chetak wrote:It may not be part of the budget this year or the next but surely, as the project kicks off and the repayment starts to kick in,

What repayments ? Nothing comes out of the budget to repay the loan. The operational income pays for it. It's upto the Japanese to run enough trains and keep the prices attractive enough to get back their money.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chaanakya » 14 Dec 2015 12:21

Bullet trains in India ( like Japan as well) has to compete with low cost airlines and weigh the comparative cost and time advantages.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... e-airlines

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2015 12:33

Suraj wrote:
chetak wrote:It may not be part of the budget this year or the next but surely, as the project kicks off and the repayment starts to kick in,

What repayments ? Nothing comes out of the budget to repay the loan. The operational income pays for it. It's upto the Japanese to run enough trains and keep the prices attractive enough to get back their money.


saar, please humor me, ignorant as i am.

where exactly does it say, specifically, particularly and in just so many words that the japanese are going to be running it?? They are only funding it and selling HSR stuff to us, nothing more than that, from what i have been able to see.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2015 12:39

chaanakya wrote:Bullet trains in India ( like Japan as well) has to compete with low cost airlines and weigh the comparative cost and time advantages.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... e-airlines


Indian logic is that people take trains because they cannot afford planes. They want low cost plane fares to drop to train levels and not train fares to rise to low cost plane fare levels.

this logic does not hold in many other countries as train fares are inherently expensive, sometimes even more than that of low cost planes.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Dec 2015 12:50

chetak wrote:where exactly does it say, specifically, particularly and in just so many words that the japanese are going to be running it?? They are only funding it and selling HSR stuff to us, nothing more than that, from what i have been able to see.

It is not a question of who is 'running' it. The most likely arrangement is BOT. This is not a sovereign loan requested by GoI and sanctioned by a government-to-agency agreement like a WB/IMF loan. This is a foreign direct investment. GoI is not on the hook to pay this back. If that were the case, when Coca Cola, POSCO or anyone else runs losses, GoI would have to pay it back too.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby kvraghav » 14 Dec 2015 13:08

I am afraid of flying and so are many. I would personally consider the bullet train to flight any day.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Viv S » 14 Dec 2015 13:09

How fast will this bullet train go exactly in regular operations? 250 kph? 300 kph?

I ask because the Spanish Talgo is gearing upfor trial runs of its lightweight trains in India that will reportedly travel between 180-220 kph, without requiring any changes to the IR's existing tracks.

That's about 3 hours for the 500 km Mumbai-Ahmedabad route. Is it worth building a dedicated bullet train line to shave another hour off that travel time?

Even with a very generous payment schedule, a $15 billion bill would result in an annual outgo of over $500 mil from the treasury.* Not having seen the feasibility report for the project (is it publicly available?) its hard to say for certain, but it does seem like that sum could be more productively invested elsewhere. After all, there's no shortage of investment opportunities in India in infrastructure, that the Japanese state could support (with the projects led by Japanese companies).



*Edit: Seems I was wrong. Conditions are far more generous than I expected - The Japanese loan component of $12 billion has been worked out on one of the most attractive repayment terms at almost zero per cent – 0.1 per cent to be precise -- after pretty strong negotiations for the financing, with a 15-year moratorium on a 50-year repayment period. (Link)

Though I still wish we could have gotten similar terms for a project with better commercial prospects (which inevitably have a higher social impact).
Last edited by Viv S on 14 Dec 2015 13:19, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Dec 2015 13:11

Viv S wrote:Even with a very generous payment schedule, a $15 billion bill would result in an annual outgo of over $500 mil from the treasury.

It's not the government that's paying this back.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Viv S » 14 Dec 2015 13:28

Suraj wrote:It's not the government that's paying this back.


Its a loan to a subsidiary of the Indian Railways, owned by the GoI, with the terms of loan negotiated by the GoI and GoJ. Given the history of HSR in the world, the company is unlikely to be able to pay back the capital invested, even over the long run. (Of course doesn't take away from the positive impact it'll have on the economy like most investments in infrastructure, which is why the GoI is backing the venture.)
Last edited by Viv S on 14 Dec 2015 13:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby hanumadu » 14 Dec 2015 13:29

Image

It's a no brainer. Its basically free money to India.

By the fiftieth year, we would be paying 125 cr per anum in present days money.
Last edited by hanumadu on 14 Dec 2015 13:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby geeth » 14 Dec 2015 13:30

The bullet train ticket costs in Japan are comparable to.air tickets. But in India they are likely to be cheaper because 1) the air tickets are comparatively costlier, 2) labour is cheaper 3) electric power, which is a major contributor of operating cost will be cheaper.

Ultimately, it all depends on volume of traffic and how greedy the operator is...but the rates have to be low for it to succeed, IMO less than low cost air ticket.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby hanumadu » 14 Dec 2015 13:40

^^^

hanumadu wrote:They conducted surveys and according to them the ticket from Mumbai to Ahmbad will be priced at 1850. The expected travellers is 40000/day. So that turns out to be 2700 cr/year. If you take away 500 cr as interest, then it leaves out 2200 cr for operating expenses. Initially, there may be a loss or less profit. But as fare rises due to inflation, the line will be more profitable.

The current price for a low cost airline is around 2500 Rs, and the flight time is 1 hr. But if you include the travel to the airport, the check in time, baggage claim, delays and of course the general cheap feeling of the low cost flight, the HSR looks like a great deal compared to flight.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2015 13:50

Suraj wrote:
chetak wrote:where exactly does it say, specifically, particularly and in just so many words that the japanese are going to be running it?? They are only funding it and selling HSR stuff to us, nothing more than that, from what i have been able to see.

It is not a question of who is 'running' it. The most likely arrangement is BOT. This is not a sovereign loan requested by GoI and sanctioned by a government-to-agency agreement like a WB/IMF loan. This is a foreign direct investment. GoI is not on the hook to pay this back. If that were the case, when Coca Cola, POSCO or anyone else runs losses, GoI would have to pay it back too.


If it is a "most likely " scenario, why not wait a while for the situation to crystallize??

No "country" will enter into a BOT in India, the legalese alone will drown the project. The GOI is specifically and directly on the hook to pay back this loan, there are no two ways about it.

The HSR will be run by the IR only and no one else. BOT is not mentioned anywhere nor is it being proposed by anyone as a methodology.

The examples of Coca Cola, POSCO or anyone else running losses doesn't wash as they are all private enterprises running commercial risks of their own volition. The HSR is not an FDI in that sense, it's a govt to govt loan plain and simple with a carrot of low interest for a very specific project only. The japanese have immediate payback in terms of business for their companies and their technology as a very specific conditionality of the loan. This money cannot be used elsewhere nor for any other purpose other than what is specified.

The project has to be tendered first and the smart japanese have done their best to turn it into a "single tender" bid by offering the loan on such soft terms. If another party, like say, the chinese, come up with better terms as well as even softer funding, where do the japanese stand then??

The loan has to be repaid by the GOI, in one way or the other. This loan has to be made to some one in India and it will be made to the HSRC because it is the stakeholder of this project. The HSRC is wholly owned by the GOI and any loan that is taken by this wholly owned entity of the GOI is as good as a loan with a sovereign guarantee because any default would reflect directly on the GOI through the railway ministry. Default on such a loan here would result in immediate downgrading by international agencies as it would undoubtedly be seen as a default of the GOI on an international loan, not to mention the very acute embarrassment and loss of face in such a situation.

even though the specific words "sovereign guarantee" is not used, the loan is without a shadow of doubt, being made to the GOI through the HSRC and the Railway Ministry of the GOI and is thus considered very safe. No other interpretation will wash as the SPV has already been created for such specific projects.


High Speed Rail Corporation of India Limited (HSRC) has been formed on the directions of Ministry of Railways, Government of India, for development and implementation of high speed rail projects.

This Special Purpose Vehicle has been incorporated in 2012 as a subsidiary of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited which is a Mini-Ratna public sector enterprise of Government of India.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Dec 2015 13:52

All good points. It remains to be seen if any of what you said will be true :)

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2015 13:57

geeth wrote:The bullet train ticket costs in Japan are comparable to.air tickets. But in India they are likely to be cheaper because 1) the air tickets are comparatively costlier, 2) labour is cheaper 3) electric power, which is a major contributor of operating cost will be cheaper.

Ultimately, it all depends on volume of traffic and how greedy the operator is...but the rates have to be low for it to succeed, IMO less than low cost air ticket.


cost of labor and electricity is a very temporary phenomena. Both will rise rapidly as living conditions and aspirations and cost of living improves/increases.

no one can accurately project for 2023 or beyond other than out of some academic interest. There are so many variables.

major airline costs are in dollars, even in India.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2015 13:59

Suraj wrote:All good points. It remains to be seen if any of what you said will be true :)


It's not what I said. :)

It is based on the information currently available out there.

If that changes, the scenario will also change accordingly.

Suraj
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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 14 Dec 2015 14:01

Unfortunately you're interpreting documents to your convenience. That's why I said we will see.

chaanakya
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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chaanakya » 14 Dec 2015 14:11

There are other advantages to Bullet trains when compared to Airplanes.One does not have tp travel two hours to reach airport 45 minutes in advance. That saves two and half hours from commute time. You get to the citi centre by train as these trains can use the existing ( slightly modified) stations as their starting point and like all stations they are now mostly in the city. Other advantage is less security needed for entry to platform and train. Though we can quickly nullify this advantage. Trains can carry large number of passengers. The link I posted says that Bullet trains in japan carries 120000 passengers per day.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2015 14:21

kvraghav wrote:I am afraid of flying and so are many. I would personally consider the bullet train to flight any day.



don't mind my macabre humor, but in either case, in the event of a mishap, the hapless passengers would end up in similar sized bits and pieces onlee :wink:

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby hanumadu » 14 Dec 2015 14:38

chetak wrote:
geeth wrote:The bullet train ticket costs in Japan are comparable to.air tickets. But in India they are likely to be cheaper because 1) the air tickets are comparatively costlier, 2) labour is cheaper 3) electric power, which is a major contributor of operating cost will be cheaper.

Ultimately, it all depends on volume of traffic and how greedy the operator is...but the rates have to be low for it to succeed, IMO less than low cost air ticket.


cost of labor and electricity is a very temporary phenomena. Both will rise rapidly as living conditions and aspirations and cost of living improves/increases.

no one can accurately project for 2023 or beyond other than out of some academic interest. There are so many variables.

major airline costs are in dollars, even in India.


You are making a case for bullet trains. If all those increase, then plane fares too increase and so will the train fare. The number of travelers will also increase and so will the number or people paying increase fare. The loan component will be smaller and smaller. The only question that remains is can it make enough to cover operating costs.

You are now even supporting Chinese HSR (with its stolen technology and accident record) over Japanese HSR to win an argument. Of course Japanese is financing it to fund its own industry. A good deal is one where both sides win.

0.1% interest, 50 year repayment, 15 years moratorium. I would be surprised if Japanese are not asking for BOT and we should thank our lucky stars if they are not.

It is important we get hands on experience with operating HSR and the technology involved to eventually build our own. Its India leasing the Russian nuclear subs to help build our own. It will also bring about an enormous mind set change in the Indian public.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chetak » 14 Dec 2015 15:07

^^^^^^^

I have not mentioned the chinese except to suggest that they may also participate when the project is tendered, as a matter of national ego, having lost out to the japanese. I have no interest in any chinese technology whatsoever and no thought of ever supporting them in any cause.

personally, I am not for any HSR and we can easily wait on this whilst concentrating on more inclusive and basic stuff but the japanese seem to be offering us money for jam and so we must make hay while the sun shines.

I feel that we have far more important things to do than get into such extremely expensive and niche areas at this stage of our growth, but then that's just me. :)

If, indeed, it does go forward, then one would hope for immediate spinoffs to deploy and consolidate in other less funded but more vital areas of the railways like safety and efficiency.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SaiK » 14 Dec 2015 16:05

It is not about investments exceeding budgets compared to other investment areas. It is the profitability and ROI. Can we get that data?


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