Indian Railways Thread

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SSundar » 07 Dec 2015 09:23

Singha wrote:14 hrs means why should I take a flight and add 1000/- taxi fare at both ends and hours of security checks etc. I can take a short ride to station and read a book and sleep a little enroute in a chair car, with a couple meals.


Now imagine this becoming an overnight train, saar. End a productive day at work, head to Chennai Central after a good dinner at HSB, get comfortable sleep in a quiet train, get a quick shower at Delhi station and head to HSB for a good breakfast before beginning another productive day at work. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: .

India could use a mix of old and new Japanese technologies. Overnight trains between every financially sustainable city pair should be targeted. That would mean Kolkata to Hyderabad/Chennai can be done with old tech while Chennai/Hyderabad to Delhi would need new tech.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Singha » 07 Dec 2015 09:38

^^ good point that. beyond a certain distance the higher speed HSR techs will be useful. its should be gradual and countryside boiling frog in water technique than a bank-busting showpiece h&D mumbai-ahmedabad or delhi-jaipur line

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Supratik » 07 Dec 2015 11:02

Since we are getting in late in the HSR game it is better to get the best tech we can afford. Old tech may need to be replaced sooner jacking up the cost further.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 07 Dec 2015 11:44

Old and slow are not identical. Not all Shinkansen runs at 300-350km/h . Only the Tokaido/Sanyo Shinkansen (Tokyo to Osaka and Hakata) southwards and the Tohoku & Akita Shinkansen northwards do. There are multiple other 'mini Shinkansens' that are constrained to operate at slower speeds.

The Japanese are welcome to build a Shinkansen line, provided they fund it. IR itself should invest in its own network first, continuing its present plans.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Kashi » 07 Dec 2015 12:32

Suraj wrote:Old and slow are not identical. Not all Shinkansen runs at 300-350km/h . Only the Tokaido/Sanyo Shinkansen (Tokyo to Osaka and Hakata) southwards and the Tohoku & Akita Shinkansen northwards do. There are multiple other 'mini Shinkansens' that are constrained to operate at slower speeds.

The Japanese are welcome to build a Shinkansen line, provided they fund it. IR itself should invest in its own network first, continuing its present plans.


Tokaido Shinkansen runs at a maximum of 275km/h, though the trains are capable of running at higher speeds as they indeed do after crossing Shin-Osaka. The speeds on Tokyo-Osaka route are constrained due to many reasons- noise regulations, gradient curve, traffic density on the Tokaido mainline etc.

The mini Shinkansens run at lower speeds due to a variety of constraints such as gauge changes and track-sharing (some of which are not fenced).

The Japanese seem to be eager to export Shinkansen to India and JR Maglev to USA and after losing the Indonesian HSR bid to China (which was a very sore spot for them), they maybe unwilling to let the same happen in India again. I reckon there will be some serious bargaining and pitching on this when the two PMs meet.

Of course, tech share will be an issue, because Japanese may insist on the trains being built at Kawasaki heavy industries factories in Japan, while we will rightly insist on tech transfer and local production.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Singha » 07 Dec 2015 12:34

they are being eaten alive by cheen HSR + funding pkg in any contest. I would not be surprised if cheen also lands hsr contracts in parallel here. they have become self-taught masters at civil and railway engineering by investing huge over 10 years

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Prasad » 07 Dec 2015 12:44

Would it make any sense for us to have multiple HSR tech and trainsets? Interoperability should be a main concern no?

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Kashi » 07 Dec 2015 12:50

Prasad wrote:Would it make any sense for us to have multiple HSR tech and trainsets? Interoperability should be a main concern no?


It depends on what we want in the long term. As of now we are probably looking at standalone HSR links between major centres- Delhi-Mumbai, Hyderabad-Bangalore-Chennai etc. They'll probably be operated by independent companies.

Even if the systems are linked together eventually, we are unlikely to see a passenger travel all the way from Delhi to Chennai via Mumbai and Bangalore. They'll prefer a more direct route. HSRs will provide short links and interoperatibility shouldn't really be that big an issue.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Supratik » 07 Dec 2015 18:39

As long as there is no inter-operability issue it should be fine to have different systems on different lines. The main issue is whether the Chinese give loans on as favorable condition as the Japanese. Thankfully IR will not have to pay from their pocket.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 08 Dec 2015 12:59

Japan poised to win India's bullet train deal: Nikkei Reports
Japan is expected to win the right to construct India's first bullet train, after losing an Indonesian high-speed rail deal to China, the Nikkei business daily reported on Tuesday.

Japan will offer more than 1 trillion yen ($8.11 billion) in loans to construct India's 980 billion rupee fast train, according to the report.

Japan recently lost the bid to build Indonesia's first fast-train because Beijing provided a $5 billion loan without guarantees.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, due to visit India this week, and his counterpart Narendra Modi are expected to issue a joint statement on the deal, the Nikkei said.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Prasad » 08 Dec 2015 21:01

Still can't wrap my head around that number. Unbelievable numbers being thrown about. How do we repay that kind of money? Are the finances in deals like this clearly elucidated anywhere? All I find are articles like the above.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Rishirishi » 09 Dec 2015 03:46

at 0,5 % finance it is a great deal. Yet the interest alone is 40 million dollars per year. And you have to calculate the depreciation and maintnace costs. I think a conventional upgrade to 200 Km per hour would have done the trick. Mumbai to Ahemedabad in 3 hours is a good option at much lower price.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Kashi » 09 Dec 2015 05:12

We need to insist on substantial tech transfer and local manufacturing. None of "Shinkansen technology is very complex, only the very skilled Japanese workers have the know how to do so at Kawasaki Heavy Industries."

Of course, Japanese maybe a tad reluctant since infrastructure projects are their forte and bread and butter and after the Chinese experience, where they made off with Japanese technology and have started undercutting them in financial bids around the world, their reluctance would be understandable.

We could also do our bit to ally their apprehensions- royalty payments, joint future bids etc.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Singha » 09 Dec 2015 06:42

we should carefully put in HSR signaling systems that are compatible with any train either right away (some global std) or with minimal MLU changes.

once such huge changes go in, they will outlast the trainsets , which will keep evolving and we need choice to run multiple vendors later since our BG gauge is std

lets not get carried away by the shiny trains.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Gyan » 09 Dec 2015 10:09

It should be 100 year loan at -1% rate of interest.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SaiK » 09 Dec 2015 17:35

Kashi wrote:We need to insist on substantial tech transfer and local manufacturing. None of "Shinkansen technology is very complex, only the very skilled Japanese workers have the know how to do so at Kawasaki Heavy Industries."

Of course, Japanese maybe a tad reluctant since infrastructure projects are their forte and bread and butter and after the Chinese experience, where they made off with Japanese technology and have started undercutting them in financial bids around the world, their reluctance would be understandable.

We could also do our bit to ally their apprehensions- royalty payments, joint future bids etc.

+1

---

PS : RE bullet plan, they should do

Amritsar to TVM via delhi, Ahmed, mumbai, mangalore.
TVM to Kolkatta via BLR, Chennai and vizag.
Then kolkatta to dilli via varnasi.

In between, they can connect EW & NS lane.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SaiK » 10 Dec 2015 02:38

Not IR, but linking here to get an idea of 'impossible engineering' by the Chinese
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjSKugzw59o

the only maglev in the world. like they say, it appears to defy fizzics

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Karthik S » 10 Dec 2015 03:34

SaiK wrote:Not IR, but linking here to get an idea of 'impossible engineering' by the Chinese
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjSKugzw59o

the only maglev in the world. like they say, it appears to defy fizzics


It is German technology. Now Japanese have even a faster maglev train.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Rahul M » 10 Dec 2015 06:54

Gyan wrote:It should be 100 year loan at -1% rate of interest.

do you ever post anything meaningful ? all I see from you is nonsense like this ^^.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Kashi » 10 Dec 2015 07:06

Rahul M wrote:do you ever post anything meaningful ? all I see from you is nonsense like this ^^.


Really underscores the irony of user names on internet fora doesn't it?

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Ankit Desai » 10 Dec 2015 08:08

It will be between Ahmedabad-Mumbai.

The bullet train accident in China four years ago along with low-cost finance and a promise to have a substantial 'Make in India' component and transfer of technology clinched the deal for Japan to build the first high-speed train that will run between Mumbai and Ahmedabad — with the possibility of extending it to Delhi in future.


Japan pips China to build India’s first bullet train

-Ankit

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby chetak » 10 Dec 2015 18:30

Ankit Desai wrote:It will be between Ahmedabad-Mumbai.

The bullet train accident in China four years ago along with low-cost finance and a promise to have a substantial 'Make in India' component and transfer of technology clinched the deal for Japan to build the first high-speed train that will run between Mumbai and Ahmedabad — with the possibility of extending it to Delhi in future.


Japan pips China to build India’s first bullet train

-Ankit



what's so great between these two particular cities that we have to spend a bomb on a bullet train??

I am sure that we can get a much bigger bang for the buck, investing in maybe other more inclusive railway projects, benefiting a much larger set of people.

my two paise onlee.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 10 Dec 2015 22:33

chetak wrote:what's so great between these two particular cities that we have to spend a bomb on a bullet train??

I am sure that we can get a much bigger bang for the buck, investing in maybe other more inclusive railway projects, benefiting a much larger set of people.

my two paise onlee.

We aren't. The Japanese are funding the project, and we are not guaranteeing the investment for them.

IR's existing investment plans to expand its general network remain unchanged.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Rishirishi » 11 Dec 2015 04:28

nukavarapu wrote:But if we are building high speed in 21st century then why do it with yesterday's technology? If they are going to run high speed trains on tracks, its better to realign the existing tracks and improve the quality of tracks, train sets and associated infrastructure so that speeds can be increased gradually to 150 kmph and finally to 300 kmph. Whether it's japan's money or whether its India's money, there is always a more sensible way to spend money. But if they are doing brand new infrastructure then why not maglev as that is the future. I assume with the unique challenges india has to offer, they will pretty much do via-duct all the way or most of it. So why not a maglev so in future, we can have glass or metal enclosures throughout the path, make it a vacuum environment and increase the speeds to 1000 kmph. I guess Musk did propose something like that in underground. Gradually this form of travel will be more cost effective then the rails and ballast system and will be far more cost effective and even faster than flights.


In current conditions the bullet train is going to work out too expensive, as even the tickets are going to be as high as flights. However the benefits are

1 For once india is planning for the future. Indians cant afford the train today, but will do in 15 years time, when incomes are quadrupled. India will have experiance and technology available to build high speed trains for all large cities.

2 Do not forget the huge industrial belt in between. Mumbai, Surat, Varoda and Ahemedabad. The benefit is not only between Mumbai and Ahm. It is also between all the cities on the route. Ahm-surat can for example be done in less then an 2 hours and Surat-Varoda in less then 40 min.

3
There is a longterm plan of Delhi-mumbai industrial corridor. This can transform India. Sunpower is plenty in Rajastan, Mumbai has the port. In between are cities like Surat, Varoda, Ahm, udaipur, Ajmer and Jaipur.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Kashi » 11 Dec 2015 05:03

Rishirishi wrote:In current conditions the bullet train is going to work out too expensive, as even the tickets are going to be as high as flights. However the benefits are

1 For once india is planning for the future. Indians cant afford the train today, but will do in 15 years time, when incomes are quadrupled. India will have experiance and technology available to build high speed trains for all large cities.


That's not entirely correct. The argument rests on the premise that the tickets will be as expensive as airfare. However, on the trunk routes (Ahmedabad-Mumbai is a part of one), flights are usually full and aplenty, suggesting that there is enough demand for speedy, convenient travel between key centres.

It is estimated that about 1 lakh people commute between Gujarat and Mumbai daily- most of them for business. If the new Shinkansen is able to lure even a quarter of them, it would be a good start.

And as you rightly pointed out, when more and more people become comfortable with Shinkansen travel, we would have build up the necessary expertise to expand our fledgling network.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Kashi » 11 Dec 2015 05:14

nukavarapu wrote:I was talking more in terms of technology and affordability point of view. I never said that there are no benefits out of it. My grind is that we are going to create another white elephant with yesterday's technology. Realigning existing rail lines and increasing the speed to about 200 kmph will be more cost effective and beneficial compared to a brand new turnkey infrastructure using viaducts, just to create another metal rail & ballast based high speed.


Is it really? In terms of work you are looking at a very similar challenges. It's not just realignment (which will come with it's own set of issues when it comes to land acquisition), but you must replace the tracks, the rolling stock, signalling, staff and crew training and fencing. Where the trunk routes pass through heavily populated sections, fencing alone will not be enough and you'll have to go the elevated way. Then there is the political hot potato of raising passenger fares to make up for the increased cost. One can only imagine how cost-effective this initiative will be.

Of course, what can be done is move freight to DFC, increase the passenger train speeds to consistently run at 160 km/h and streamline the signalling operations- something that I believe the railways are looking at (or at least should be looking at).

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 11 Dec 2015 05:26

nukavarapu wrote:But if we are building high speed in 21st century then why do it with yesterday's technology?

Justify your argument as to why you consider it yesterday's technology.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Karthik S » 11 Dec 2015 06:13

nukavarapu wrote:My justification is maglev is available and can be more cost effective in future compared to tracks with ballast. If we are building new infrastructure, why not do it with maglev instead of doing tracks and ballast? Vaccum based maglev ducts can accelerate trains to speeds more or equal to aeroplanes and can carry more people with a fraction of cost. You can never do that with regular tracks with ballast.


How so? The 30 km Shanghai Maglev train was built at a cost of $1.2 billion more than a decade back. Without considering the effect of inflation, a line that's 17 times longer will cost $20 billion now. Also, China built most of its high speed network after Shanghai Maglev train operation started. Why didn't they go for Maglev if it'd be more cost effective in future?

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SwamyG » 11 Dec 2015 07:10

So Ahmedabad to Mumbai will be in 2 hours, considering Surat is almost in the half way mark it would take about an hour. This will spur more travel and economic activity.
As far as technology goes, this train is just between two cities. There is always opportunity to incorporate newer high speed trains and technology in other parts of the country. China and Japan have mixed high speed trains.
It is a first step, but a good step.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SSundar » 11 Dec 2015 08:06

nukavarapu wrote:My justification is maglev is available and can be more cost effective in future compared to tracks with ballast. If we are building new infrastructure, why not do it with maglev instead of doing tracks and ballast? Vaccum based maglev ducts can accelerate trains to speeds more or equal to aeroplanes and can carry more people with a fraction of cost. You can never do that with regular tracks with ballast.


Nukavarapu, Maglev is truly a white elephant. It is a very expensive way to earn bragging rights - truly a "mine is bigger than yours" claim. It is not easy to use for mass transport that can scale up as the demand increases. The track is an active component in the propulsion of the maglev. So, the cost ought to be orders of magnitude higher than conventional rail.

The Shanghai Maglev has two trains on two fixed tracks going back and forth on the 40 KM stretch between the city outskirts and the airport. The last time I went on these, one was running at 430 KMPH and the other one was stuck at 300 KMPH for some reason. 300 KMPH is the speed at which the conventional HSRs in China, Japan and Europe run. You don't need maglev if the speed you need is 300 KMPH.

The Beijing-Shanghai HSR is 1500+ kilometers long. It covers the distance in 5 hours with a stop in Nanjing. If this line had been a maglev running at 430 KMPH, you would cover this distance in 3 hours and 49 minutes. But the cost would be orders of magnitude higher. Is a cost of $45 billion worth the 1 hour 11 minutes in time savings? Lots of variables go into figuring the ROI out for a venture like this. I am not an expert at calculating ROI for a project like that, but my gut feeling that it will not have good ROI.

Today, you take a train for 40 hours to go from Chennai to Delhi (2176 KM). You would probably take about 7-8 hours doing the same over flight - add airport transit, wait times, cost of delays, etc. The nation loses the productivity of each travelling individual for anywhere between 7 and 40 hours per trip.

A 300 KMPH HSR can cover that distance in under 8 hours. That is a huge gain in productivity for the entire nation. Net ROI for the country would go through the roof. I would argue that bringing down that time to 5 hours with a 430 KMPH maglev will NOT bring a proportional benefit to the nation. The incremental ROI won't be worth it. The cost-benefit curve tends to become a flat line in that zone.
Last edited by SSundar on 11 Dec 2015 21:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SSundar » 11 Dec 2015 08:26

Kashi wrote:That's not entirely correct. The argument rests on the premise that the tickets will be as expensive as airfare. However, on the trunk routes (Ahmedabad-Mumbai is a part of one), flights are usually full and aplenty, suggesting that there is enough demand for speedy, convenient travel between key centres.

It is estimated that about 1 lakh people commute between Gujarat and Mumbai daily- most of them for business. If the new Shinkansen is able to lure even a quarter of them, it would be a good start.


My grandfather did business with merchants in Surat. He traveled there from Chennai at least once every quarter. Two days in the train each way. He did that for at least 35 years that I know of. In his last days, low cost airlines made it easier for him to fly to Mumbai and then take the train to Surat. Many in his line of business make this trip very often. So, the demand for Mumbai-Surat-Ahmadabad includes a lot of traffic that originates outside Mumbai or Gujarat. The demand is there and this route is a really good one to prove out the economics and macroeconomic impact of HSR.

Besides, when Mamata or Laloo become Rail Mantri, they announce new trains to completely undeserving and unviable places in their states/constituencies. One could claim that Japan is investing in this project at least partly due to their relationship with Modi. He absolutely deserves to send this project to "his city".

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SSundar » 11 Dec 2015 08:49

SwamyG wrote:So Ahmedabad to Mumbai will be in 2 hours, considering Surat is almost in the half way mark it would take about an hour. This will spur more travel and economic activity.
As far as technology goes, this train is just between two cities. There is always opportunity to incorporate newer high speed trains and technology in other parts of the country. China and Japan have mixed high speed trains.
It is a first step, but a good step.


+1

1. The economic activity surge will be enormous. We cannot look at HSRs through the conventional prism of ticket prices and infrastructure costs.

2. Every pair of destinations will have its own ideal duration of travel as well as ideal hours of departure and arrival. That "sweet time" needs to be exploited to the max. Train speeds should be subordinated to this requirement, not the other way round.

3. India should indeed require standardization between Japanese, Chinese and European-origin HSRs, but only in terms of gauge, voltage-current requirements, communication and signaling systems.

4. Hopefully, the HSR operations will start from and continue to be with private parties and not end up in the hands of a bureaucracy such as IR.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SwamyG » 11 Dec 2015 09:33

If the Maglev is forced to only 300kmh, then a 'regular' HSR definitely should be pursued now. I traveled in Frecciarossa 1000 in Italy, from Rome to Pompeii. It maxed at 293kmh and there was very little noticeable vibrations in the coach. Only the TV monitors announced the speed. The train for most part was operated in the 250-270 kmh range for a journey of 1 hour. Its full potential was not exercised :-)

I would expect the usage between Ahmedabad to Surat would be high. By the time the train is operational our eInfra (electronic infrastructure) would have advanced even more. Tech/Gadget savvy people will pay for their journey online using their mobile phones, get the some kind of eTicket, scan the eTickets at turnstiles on the platform and walk into their AC coaches, start working/browsing and reach their destination in 1 hour. Considering the train station drop off and pick up by a cab add 2 more hours. So from door to door, 3 hours Ahmedabad to Surat is a possibility. The only traffic snarls would be on the roads, so add another hour to the total trip. With WiFi, and other facilities inside the train, or even if people bought their WiFi dongles people will remain connected for the 2 hours.

Day trips from Ahmedabad to Mumbai becomes possible, increases tourism opportunities.

At this point in time, it is unnecessary for India to do a jump to Maglev trains. Let us move to recently developed HSRs (the non-Maglev types), master them by building more routes and then incorporate Maglev after some time. Biting a chewable project will help us master the technology and more importantly for India the project management of making a HSR a reality.

Indian companies have build stadiums in record times whenever there was a strong political will with good quality. So India can do it, lets take a nibble first then we can take larger bites.

There is no big benefit for being one of the technology adapters (though a little late).

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Singha » 11 Dec 2015 09:36

quite a few inter-city routes in the country like kolkata-patna, kolkata-guwahati, kolkata-ranchi, Hyd-vizag, Hyd-chennai,Hyd-blr, blr-chennai, chennai-tvm might be profitable quite easily with even a 150kmph average "junior" HSR ... it will revolutionize our travel economy if we can convert even 25% of our track mileage to permit 180kmph surges and 150kmph avg.

eg howrah to guwahati is 900 km. it is a 24 hr journey, and then people spend another 24 hrs travelling to far flung corners of NE mostly by bus or by train to dibrugarh and onward. if this journey is cut down to 6 hrs + 1 hr for slowly leaving and entering the cities at both ends......it changes the entire travel economy to NE.

however track alignments simply cannot be "made strong" in many cases, there will be many curves that will need new alignments (like the famous makalidurga climb into blr plateau from hyd side, the curves on the blr-chennai route).....so its not a cheap fix. many old bridges will need replacement.

but its inevitable if we want to make progress into a upper middle income country. will hugely prime our construction industry as well

once the east and west frieght corridors get done I hope they start such improvements countrywide.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SwamyG » 11 Dec 2015 09:44

I like to tell for a rich country Americans are poor, and for a poor country Indians are rich. Every time I travel to India, and fly between cities I look at the passengers taking domestic flights my jaw drops. 10-15 years ago I would never have imagine these types of people would be flying. When I say "these types" I mean we have the stereotype of poor or lower middle income people clad in ethnic outwear and looking very non-chichi. Growing up, there was a thought only the rich flew and a middle class flew once or twice per life time - due to odd reason.

With booming economy, every Ramu and Rani are flying. They have the money, they want the convenience and the modern pleasures of travel.

Build HSR, and appropriate supporting infrastructure people will come flocking to them. There would be no empty trains. Phool paisa will be vasooled.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Singha » 11 Dec 2015 10:32

true..for one time let infra capacity lead demand...in india is vastly the other way around.

municipality builds electric poles, roads and drains after people are done building houses...or never at all properly.

UP and Bihar belt have very few airports but a lot of medium sized business hub towns....agra, moradabad, aligarh, mughalsarai, gorakhpur, varanasi, allahabad, kanpur....huge market there also for fast intercity day trains.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Prasad » 11 Dec 2015 10:33

Suraj wrote:
chetak wrote:what's so great between these two particular cities that we have to spend a bomb on a bullet train??

I am sure that we can get a much bigger bang for the buck, investing in maybe other more inclusive railway projects, benefiting a much larger set of people.

my two paise onlee.

We aren't. The Japanese are funding the project, and we are not guaranteeing the investment for them.

IR's existing investment plans to expand its general network remain unchanged.

No economist so didn't understand what you're saying here. We do have to repay them no? Or is it like a commercial venture that the japanese are doing with their own funding, pricing and exit strategy? If this is a loan to india/IR then its a humungous amount of money.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Kashi » 11 Dec 2015 11:36

Singha wrote:UP and Bihar belt have very few airports but a lot of medium sized business hub towns....agra, moradabad, aligarh, mughalsarai, gorakhpur, varanasi, allahabad, kanpur....huge market there also for fast intercity day trains.


Varanasi in particular could be the interchange and transfer hub for the entire poorvanchal region. The flights to Delhi are reasonably occupied and trains too. A Delhi-Mathura-Agra-Kanpur-Allahabad-Varanasi section in principle could be chock-a-block full of businessmen, tourists and pilgrims.

SSundar
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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SSundar » 11 Dec 2015 12:59

Prasad wrote:No economist so didn't understand what you're saying here. We do have to repay them no? Or is it like a commercial venture that the japanese are doing with their own funding, pricing and exit strategy? If this is a loan to india/IR then its a humungous amount of money.


We do not know yet who will operate the HSR and what the rev sharing arrangement is. It maybe a few years before we know all these details.

Suraj
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Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 11 Dec 2015 13:51

Prasad wrote:No economist so didn't understand what you're saying here. We do have to repay them no? Or is it like a commercial venture that the japanese are doing with their own funding, pricing and exit strategy? If this is a loan to india/IR then its a humungous amount of money.

This is nothing more than FDI in a railway project. It's their venture, not ours. They front up the capital and technology, and in return require a minimum amount of product to be sourced from Japan (30-40% ?). They'll have a BOT arrangement of some kind to get back their investment, but it's not guaranteed that they will get it back, if ridership turns out to be lower than their calculations etc. There's no sovereign guarantee of the 'build this for us, we'll pay you back $X billion in Y years at Z% rate' kind. Companies invest in India and then make or lose money all the time. This is just one more FDI case. Another FDI in railways case was the recent awarding of the diesel loco plant to GE and the electric loco plant to Alstom.


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