Indian Railways Thread

All threads that are locked or marked for deletion will be moved to this forum. The topics will be cleared from this archive on the 1st and 16th of each month.
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3995
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby hanumadu » 11 Dec 2015 14:06

Suraj wrote:
Prasad wrote:No economist so didn't understand what you're saying here. We do have to repay them no? Or is it like a commercial venture that the japanese are doing with their own funding, pricing and exit strategy? If this is a loan to india/IR then its a humungous amount of money.

This is nothing more than FDI in a railway project. It's their venture, not ours. They front up the capital and technology, and in return require a minimum amount of product to be sourced from Japan (30-40% ?). They'll have a BOT arrangement of some kind to get back their investment, but it's not guaranteed that they will get it back, if ridership turns out to be lower than their calculations etc. There's no sovereign guarantee of the 'build this for us, we'll pay you back $X billion in Y years at Z% rate' kind. Companies invest in India and then make or lose money all the time. This is just one more FDI case. Another FDI in railways case was the recent awarding of the diesel loco plant to GE and the electric loco plant to Alstom.


Then, from where does this talk of .5 interest rate comes from. Fro what I have read, it is a loan and not FDI.

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/508334/japan-offers-fund-mumbai-ahmedabad.html
Japan has offered soft loan for the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train project. The railway ministry is studying the conditionality of the loan which will involve transfer of technology and purchase of materials including coaches and locomotives.

“The discussions are on. Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu had last month discussed the matter with the Japanese government during his visit to Japan,” a high official told Deccan Herald.

The Japan is ready to fund 80 per cent cost of the project and wants India to purchase 30 per cent of coaches and locomotives from Japanese companies.

The railway ministry is evaluating the cost-benefit ratio of the project. According to officials, the rate of return on this Rs 98,000 crore project is estimated to be around 4 per cent. So, interest on the loan should not exceed this amount.

vsunder
BRFite
Posts: 691
Joined: 06 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Ulan Bator, Mongolia

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby vsunder » 11 Dec 2015 16:27

Short video clip on Dedicated Freight Corridors. See my previous post above on what I witnessed between Delhi and Kanpur of construction activity on EDFC, Nov 5th, 2015 a month ago. Coming back by LKO Shatabdi it had gotten dark and Shatabdi struck goats near Etwah( outside Ekdil station) and was delayed by 45mins. The problems of Land acquisition will remain and are quite acute, and will also impact HSR too. Nothing is simple in India.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xblzCXk2tUk

vsunder
BRFite
Posts: 691
Joined: 06 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Ulan Bator, Mongolia

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby vsunder » 11 Dec 2015 16:47

Doubling of Mysore to Bangalore line is done and trains are running since Nov 30th on it except for a 1.3km section between Srirangapatna and Pandavapura where Tippu's armory is to be shifted. Bejesus this shifting has been going on for a decade. The latest is that this US company will put the Armory onto wheels and roll it 100m away by March so that tracks can be laid and the doubling can be completed. This is supposed to decrease travel time between Mysore to Bangalore from 3 hours to 2 hours. But take all this with a pinch of salt. Trains coming from Mysore are usually stopped at Nayandahalli outer as there are not enough pit and washing lines at Bangalore city to move rakes out of station platforms. Maybe there are some newer pit and washing lines constructed at Binny Mills. They need to decongest Bangalore city station some more.

Mysore to Shirdi Sai Nagar Express was the first train to use the newly laid double line between Mysuru and Bangalore. Electrification of this section will take another decade given the super efficiency of SWR. Now they say some old overhead transmission lines are in the way of electrification of Mysuru-Bengaluru.
Bengaluru to Ramnagar is electrified. Ramnagar-Mysuru still waits to be electrified.
Somebody needs to give SWR a real kick in their rear ends. They have mega projects on their hands I expect a real cockup. Chikjajur-Hubbali doubling, Arsikere-Tumkur doubling and the important Bengaluru-Penukonda doubling on the Hyderabad-Bangalore route. Tenders for all have been floated October 2015 and Niti Aayog had warned SWR that they want completion of all these important projects in 4 years.

Pic of Paschimvahini bridge over Kaveri ( the girder bridge is newly laid, hope it has enough clearance for electrification!!) and Tippu's armory blocking in front. Tracks have to be laid over the bridge too:

http://i1055.photobucket.com/albums/s51 ... C_0496.jpg

But the pace of IR projects is glacial. The important third line project that got started in June 2015, Bhopal-Itarsi which is 50 miles and does have a small ghat section at Midghat is scheduled for completion in 2020,
and this is a Class A line on Delhi-Chennai route and Delhi-Mumbai route via Itarsi-Khandwa-Bhusaval.

Update on Shoranaur(SRR)-Mangalore electrification: As observed by me upto Dec 1st, traction poles are in the ground on the entire route upto MAQ(Mangalore Central) and the line from MAQ to MAJN(Mangalore Jn.). However between Kasaragod and Mangalore the poles are on just side, that is only the up or down lines have traction poles, wiring is also not complete. Before Kasaragod, Kanhangad etc, wiring is complete. However electric locos are only plying between SRR and Kallayi, not even Kozhikode. Some ROB was not raised high enough near Kozhikode so CRS has banned electric locos entering Kozhikode. There is some wire clearance requirement. After ROB was raised, old requirements were met, but failed new requirements. If ROB is raised more the whole decrepit thing will simply collapse and die and there will be a serious mess, various people will shut down the state of Kerala. Also there is some "ghotala" regarding some sub-station at Tirur, land acquisition problem. I bet you these things will even sink the Japanis when they come to build the HSR, pagal kardega. All these are personal observations made on the above spots.

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp ... 051378.ece

Pranay
BRFite
Posts: 1463
Joined: 06 Feb 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Pranay » 11 Dec 2015 18:55

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35068531

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is on a two-day visit to India, where he is expected to announce a deal for India's first bullet train.

On Thursday, India approved the $14.7bn (£9.7bn) deal for Japan to build the high-speed train line.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 11842
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 11 Dec 2015 20:54

hanumadu wrote:Then, from where does this talk of .5 interest rate comes from. Fro what I have read, it is a loan and not FDI.

Well, here's where I read it:
Nod for biggest FDI in Indian Railways
The decision comes on the back of the recommendations of a panel headed by NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Arvind Panagariya, which chose the low-cost funding proposed by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) at less than one per cent interest rate apart from a commitment for technology transfer and local manufacturing for a specified period.

The Panagariya panel has said the Japanese Shinkansen system of bullet trains had the best safety record, with no fatalities and delays of less than a minute.

A ministry spokesperson refused to confirm the approval. "We have no official information," he said.

India's hopes from bullet trains have been marred by the experience of Taiwan, which has been operating a high-speed train service based on Japan's Shinkansen bullet train system since 2007. Saddled with huge losses - owing to high depreciation and interest payments and low ridership numbers - the operator has sought a bailout by the government to turnaround the troubled business, the Nikkei Asian Review has said last month.

JICA, which had offered to fund 80 per cent of the cost of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad project, had submitted a feasibility study in July for the high-speed corridor that is expected to cut travel time to two hours from seven.

The Japanese loan of over Rs 78,000 crore will come with a 50-year tenure, along with a moratorium of 15-years.

The exact terms are quite confusing right now. It seems they're financing the entire cost of construction, with the technology transfer and manufacturing capability being the FDI. It would be 'interest'ing to see the specifics of how the loan is paid back, and specifically who bears the risk. 50yr loan (with 15 year grace period) at <1% is about as good a loan term as you can get, for anything, anywhere.

I hope GoI do not accord any sovereign guarantees, but just enable the Japanese to extend the tenure of BOT operation by a reasonable additional term if their ticket collections turn out to be below expectations to fulfil the loan repayment. This is quite likely because operational costs of a high speed line are quite significant and ongoing, so only a fraction of the ticket collections will go into paying down the original loan.

SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 35889
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SaiK » 12 Dec 2015 03:46

this is a great link
http://www.railnews.co.in/

vsunder
BRFite
Posts: 691
Joined: 06 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Ulan Bator, Mongolia

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby vsunder » 12 Dec 2015 17:45

The ad-hoc way in which IR operates can be seen by this example. In 1902, the then Maharaja of the erstwhile Travancore state, Uthram Tirunal, decided to build a railway line connecting Quilon, or Kollam as it is now called with TN. This line would pass over the Cardamom Hills, yes there is such a thing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cardamom_Hills

The line would facilitate evacuation of forest products and spices from Kerala to Chennai port, allow the movement of vegetables, dairy products from TN into Kerala and provide a second railway link between Southern Kerala and Chennai. The line was commissioned in 1904, two years after it was a thought. It was a MG line and on it operated the famous Quilon Mail and later Trivandrum Mail from Madras Egmore. One of the architectural features of this line was a 13 arch bridge made of granite:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kollam%E2 ... Kerala.jpg


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kollam%E2 ... View_1.jpg

and a tunnel, which bore at both ends the seal of the Travancore royal house, a conch shell. But then came along Project Unigauge. One of the lines that was selected for gauge conversion was this one. IR of course just stops service even if it has no funds in hand and then the mantris in Dilli give money in drips and drabs. So first some fat Mantri, laid the foundation stone for gauge conversion in 1998, then services was closed in 2007. After about 3 years, the Kollam-Punalur (44km) section was gauge converted 11 years after the foundation stone was laid. Now remains the ghat section over the Cardamon hills, Punalur to Sengottai or Shencottah. This is limping along. Traders suffer, movement of goods suffer and also pilgrim traffic is affected for it is in the Cardamom hills one has this Sabarimala, Ayappan place. The tunnel has to be enlarged possibly in the Punalur-Sengottai ghat section. Money still comes in drips and drabs. But the news is, from Sengottai the line has now advanced till Bhagavatipuram in the ghats and from Punalur to Edamom in the ghats. Between Edamom and Bhagwatipuram at Tenmala is the 13 arch bridge and at Aranyakavu in between Bhagwatipuram and Edamom the two tunnels. The hope is one day this line will be re-gauged and it will be possible to travel from Egmore to Trivandrum without going to Jolarpet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kollam%E2 ... ranch_line

A video of the twin tunnels at Aryankavu, it is exactly at the TN Kerala border.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Suh2LFZXjKE

A YDM through the Aryankavu tunnel( before IR quickly ripped the tracks without money in hand for gauge conversion, no planning nothing)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJhCQvXPE9Y

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwsZMBi35Z0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwsZMBi35Z0

You can see the state of gauge conversion works, Jai ho IR, jai ho, video is dated 2014.

Two other points to note: In the video from 2007 with the train in the Aranyakavu tunnel, you can clearly see the conch seal of the Trivandrum Maharaja as the train exits the tunnel. Secondly you can see upward moving semaphore signals. This was a standard feature of IR in ghat sections in the old days. If a rock fell and broke the cable, the semaphore hand would just fall down and since go was up, this was a safety mechanism to prevent confusion. In the 2014 video, the conch shell is gone and perhaps forever.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4167
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Karthik S » 12 Dec 2015 18:24

Bullet train deal signed.

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-india- ... es-2015-12

Japan will provide $12 billion of soft loans to build India's first bullet train, the two nations announced during a visit by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that also yielded deeper defense ties and a plan for civil nuclear cooperation.

Relations have strengthened between Asia's second and third largest economies as Abe and Indian counterpart Narendra Modi seek to balance China's rise as the dominant Asian power. Both men are nationalists who enjoy a personal friendship.

The deal to build a high-speed train line between the financial hub of Mumbai and the city of Ahmedabad gives Japan an early lead over China, which is conducting feasibility studies for high speed trains on other parts of India's dilapidated rail network.

"This enterprise will launch a revolution in Indian railways and speed up India's journey into the future. It will become an engine of economic transformation in India," Modi said in a speech.

Japan has offered a "highly concessional loan" at an interest rate of 0.1 percent rate with repayment over 50 years and a moratorium for 15 years, Indian Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar told a news conference.

India will be buying a Japanese high-speed train system, effectively with an export credit of $12 billion.

Under defense deals announced on Saturday, the two sides will share technology, equipment and military information, but the long-awaited sale of Japanese aircraft in a deal worth about $1.1 billion was not concluded.....

SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 35889
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SaiK » 12 Dec 2015 18:35

Just like how metros have become a norm for all A and B class cities with a sizeable population I am seeing a future that this bullet train would become an infra standard for connecting two A or B class cities. This is a great news for Vikas.

I can live in Ahmedabad, take 2 hour bullet ride to work in Mumbai. Doing the same timing between say Delhi and Chennai would require maglev types. That is a future I can see as well once bullet gets to be successful. I am forseeing a maglev between Amritsar to Kanyakumari to Kolkota and back.. say, 2 hour to work anywhere in desh vikas plan.

it must work out to 1/2 the traveling cost of flying.

manjgu
BRFite
Posts: 1569
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 10:33

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby manjgu » 12 Dec 2015 21:29

i am not sure abt the viability of the HSR... for such astronomical amounts , a 2 hr journey.. but how many will be ready to pay the astronomical fares !! i think even if IR can do 4 hr Mumabi>Amhmd , it will be awesome. what will be the frequency of the HSR trains..will it run to its capacity?? i dont think there are enough rich people to afford this kind of travel...

a 2nd class beijing to shanghai is approx Rs 6000 ..... 1st class fare is approx Rs 10000 . executive seat is approx Rs 18000
for approx 1300 km journey ... i think this money should have been spent on improving rail n/w and ensuring trains run on time...

manjgu
BRFite
Posts: 1569
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 10:33

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby manjgu » 12 Dec 2015 21:50

there are approx 30+ trains between beijing/shanghai per day ..from 7 am to 6 pm.... how many train do we expect to fill up between mumbai/ahemdabad per day !

prahaar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2782
Joined: 15 Oct 2005 04:14

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby prahaar » 12 Dec 2015 22:18

Manjguji, the exact nature of investment is still unclear but there was indication that it is FDI. Now government has opened 100% FDI. The project to invest is decided by the investors. If this project was starving other IR projects I would agree with you. But there is no indication of such a situation.

Prasad
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6885
Joined: 16 Nov 2007 00:53
Location: Chennai

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Prasad » 12 Dec 2015 22:43

Kyoto to Tokyo on JR Central on the Shinkansen costs about 14,000 yen = INR 7,700(rate card a distance of 450km taking nearly 2hrs 19mins ([url="http://english.jr-central.co.jp/info/timetable/_pdf/westbound.pdf"with 3 stops in between[/url]). Mum-Ahm is 527km. Can we do a quicker run and how many stops will we have?

Re: economics. When will we ever break even on this project? Will it be a case of "build and they'll come?" Keep in mind that its a 1h flight from ahm to bom and costs a heck of a lot less than this bullet train will. I see Jet airways tickets for Rs 2300 for mid Jan for ahm to bom.

Bade
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7212
Joined: 23 May 2002 11:31
Location: badenberg in US administered part of America

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Bade » 12 Dec 2015 23:00

Delhi-Mumbai may have enough takers as traffic will be there, but I am not sure of just A'bad-Mumbai.

arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2934
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby arshyam » 12 Dec 2015 23:17

The question is, how is the occupancy in the trains running today? I am referring to the Shatabdi and the Double Decker that run between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, as they are targeted at the business traveller traffic. Last I heard, the Shatabdi is full most of the time, but the DD is not so much for various reasons. Can folks familiar with this route offer their observations, especially with regards to the traveller profile?

My point is, is the patronage of these two trains enough to fill the HSR? Such a massive investment cannot be recouped by just running a replacement for the two above trains, one needs regular services running every hour or so. Is there enough demand for expensive AC travel every hour on this route? And Indians are very price conscious, so the paisa vasool aspect needs to work out. Definitely, passengers of the Karnavati and Gujarat express/mails are less liable to switch, given the enormous price difference. I am still sceptical of this project, even if it is a full FDI project. Let's see.

The other corridor that is mentioned in the same breath is the Chennai Bengaluru one. The Japanese are not building that, but it comes up often as a contender. But I can say with reasonable certainty that this route currently won't support HSR, since the IR service pattern is interesting. There are 2 Shatabdis and they run mostly full. There is also a DD, which is not that full. These 3 trains total 1400-1500 passengers per day. Question is, while the Shatabdi passengers might, will the DD passengers consider HSR? I would wager a bulk of these patrons will not, going by the ticket cost. Then there is the airline traffic, which can be a useful contender, again, provided the HSR is cheaper. Ultimately, even in this clientele, the price is a determining factor.

Then the bulk of the crowd, i.e. the thousands of people who travel between these 2 cities (many go home to either city every other weekend) and who will need to patronize the HSR to make it viable, prefer the Lalbagh, Brindavan and the Express for their travels (apart from the overnight Mail, Kaveri, and the bus passengers). These trains together offer around 6000 seats/berths in second class. And these trains are chock-a-block with people, even with Brindavan being a mostly unreserved train with walk-in tickets. Will these passengers shift? I don't think so, though some of the well heeled Volvo bus patrons might. But the point still stands, that this so-called affluent IT-enabled traffic is still very price conscious and may not be that enthusiastic in taking HSR regularly (again, keep in mind that many people here travel a few weekends every month, so that monthly cost has to be budgeted). Once in a while, yes, but will that add up to regular patronage?

Lastly, since this HSR is a direct investment with IR having no stake, will they be willing to cannibalize their well patronized trains like the Shatabdi to force passengers to take the HSR? As long as the Shatabdis run in parallel to the HSR, they will offer a more price competitive option to the HSR, depriving the latter of a good number of passengers. Such a situation will become like Chennai's local transport, where the city bus service actually competes with IR suburban services and not act as a feeder.

arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2934
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby arshyam » 12 Dec 2015 23:20

I said this earlier, and say it again, in the long run, we do need the HSR. But I am not certain this is the time to start. A 5 year bull run of the economy might make it more attractive, and starting around 2020 with services by 2025 should be enough. And any such investment will need some IR involvement, so they feel it's worth driving traffic into the HSR.

Ankit Desai
BRFite
Posts: 465
Joined: 05 May 2006 21:28
Location: Gujarat

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Ankit Desai » 12 Dec 2015 23:45

Bade wrote:Delhi-Mumbai may have enough takers as traffic will be there, but I am not sure of just A'bad-Mumbai.


Ahmedabad - Mumbai survey was done couple of times by Japanies companies in the past so already there were much ground work done.

Personally I also believe that they should cover more states. The states where NDA can gain political mileage. This is not the right thread but just a thought.

-Ankit
Last edited by Ankit Desai on 12 Dec 2015 23:49, edited 2 times in total.

member_20292
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2062
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby member_20292 » 12 Dec 2015 23:45

Prasad wrote:Kyoto to Tokyo on JR Central on the Shinkansen costs about 14,000 yen = INR 7,700(rate card a distance of 450km taking nearly 2hrs 19mins ([url="http://english.jr-central.co.jp/info/timetable/_pdf/westbound.pdf"with 3 stops in between[/url]). Mum-Ahm is 527km. Can we do a quicker run and how many stops will we have?

Re: economics. When will we ever break even on this project? Will it be a case of "build and they'll come?" Keep in mind that its a 1h flight from ahm to bom and costs a heck of a lot less than this bullet train will. I see Jet airways tickets for Rs 2300 for mid Jan for ahm to bom.


Public transport by definition , you never break even on it. Neither public nor private companies. Will you say that Airline companies have been great money makers over the years? No

prahaar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2782
Joined: 15 Oct 2005 04:14

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby prahaar » 12 Dec 2015 23:47

In case of network access availability and speed of network, the greater the availability and speed, greater is the usage (a commonly observed situation worldwide). Would the same apply for high frequency trains and at high speeds? As in, increase the usage from the current norm.

SSundar
BRFite
Posts: 626
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SSundar » 13 Dec 2015 00:06

Bade wrote:Delhi-Mumbai may have enough takers as traffic will be there, but I am not sure of just A'bad-Mumbai.


Often, business traffic shapes itself around the facilities available, rather than the other way around. We are talking about two commerce-intensive cities with population densities far exceeding any Japanese city. The traffic cannot NOT be there. We can trust the Japanese to have done their due diligence on the business case before splurging on this. They would not throw away this much money even for their bosom buddy Modi.

Delhi-Mumbai could be an extension of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad line in the future.

I personally believe that this government should kickoff as many HSR projects as they can find investors for. Given the long lead times of HSR construction, we cannot afford to wait till the first HSR is operational before figuring out whether HSR is the right thing or not. Let the Japanese, Chinese, French and Germans throw their money into projects they feel are viable as a 100% FDI venture. GOI must spend its money on speeding up existing lines for semi-HSR and DFC. I would even think that the government should focus on infrastructure and allow private operators to run the trains.

SSundar
BRFite
Posts: 626
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SSundar » 13 Dec 2015 00:18

Here's another thought - let us say that the skeptics are proven right and this is a massive white elephant... which part exactly? The nation did gain tracks and signalling infrastructure that can support speeds of up to 300 KMPH. If running trains at 300 KMPH is not financially viable, then the track could be used for lower speed trains. That is, we quit fretting about the sunk cost and put the tracks to good use. This is the advantage of conventional HSR over complete new technology such as maglev.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 11842
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 13 Dec 2015 00:23

Shinkansen is phenomenally expensive. It partly drove the original Japan National Railways (JNR) to bankruptcy, though there were other factors at play, such as the social imperative of connecting remote areas unprofitably. It was reorganized into what is today the mutiple JR divisions like JR Central, JR East etc. JNR accumulated a debt of $280 billion dollars back in 1987. That was a lot money then - comparable to India's nominal GDP at the time. If IR had to maintain the costs of operating HSR lines, it would become akin to JNR, compelled to run both operationally expensive HSR, and run social imperative connectivity at a loss, essentially getting eaten at both ends. Better to start out with the HSR separate. It's probably beneficial to even split off operations from infrastructure, i.e. let one company run the trains and another maintain infrastructure that's accessible to train operators.

SSundar
BRFite
Posts: 626
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SSundar » 13 Dec 2015 00:29

prahaar wrote:In case of network access availability and speed of network, the greater the availability and speed, greater is the usage (a commonly observed situation worldwide). Would the same apply for high frequency trains and at high speeds? As in, increase the usage from the current norm.


Yes and no. The train running faster would indeed mean that the track is vacated sooner. That only helps if the vacated capacity can be utilized profitably. If safety requires a 15 minute separation between HSRs, you could run 96 HSRs in each direction each day. Do we have enough people to fill 96 trains between these two cities daily? We do not have to assume trains that will carry 1500 passengers each. These could be smaller trains (the frequency vs. capacity tradeoffs). Track Utilization management is a deep expertise domain by itself. So is Yield Management for mass transportation. I am not sure if the latter is practiced in India as a professional discipline even in private airlines.

SSundar
BRFite
Posts: 626
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SSundar » 13 Dec 2015 00:33

Suraj wrote:It's probably beneficial to even split off operations from infrastructure, i.e. let one company run the trains and another maintain infrastructure that's accessible to train operators.


I suspect this applies equally well to conventional rails as well. Hoping that this government takes steps to move us in that direction sooner.

Bade
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7212
Joined: 23 May 2002 11:31
Location: badenberg in US administered part of America

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Bade » 13 Dec 2015 00:37

I am pretty sure the Japanese are not going to stop at Mumbai-A'bad, the idea is to go all the way to Delhi when it will become economically feasible too. Right now it is just to get going, and not give a sticker shock to the Indian public and get their foot in the door for the Indian market.

I am for HSR, well even E Sreedharan was selling the HSR idea in KL with Japanese help. It was always the sticker shock that was the issue.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 11842
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 13 Dec 2015 00:37

"Do we have enough demand" is one question I'd be very careful about trying to judge ahead of time. In many things we are supply constrained. That includes fast and efficient transport. It's like asking 'do we have that much electricity demand'. Build early, build sections that are low hanging fruit, and focus on keeping costs down. In that regard, is Ahmedabad-Mumbai the best first HSR line ? If it were upto me to pick I would pick Chennai-Bangalore instead. Delhi-Mumbai is too long as a first HSR line. Thanks to Mercator projection, India looks smaller than China, but in reality Delhi-Mumbai is longer than Beijing-Shanghai. Delhi-Chennai is longer than Beijing-Guangzhou.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 11842
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 13 Dec 2015 00:42

SSundar wrote:I suspect this applies equally well to conventional rails as well. Hoping that this government takes steps to move us in that direction sooner.

IIRC, the Eurozone makes this a requirement of its members to permit open access for various operators, by unbundling the operator from the infrastructure company. For example, Spain's RENFE spun off their rail infrastructure to a new company ADIF. France's SNCF has track maintenance under a subsidiary too. IR is going in that direction slowly. It's only recently started allowing private train operators to run freight trains on their tracks. Baby steps.

Bade
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7212
Joined: 23 May 2002 11:31
Location: badenberg in US administered part of America

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Bade » 13 Dec 2015 01:08

If the Japanese have staked out the Mumbai-Abad segment with extension to Delhi, maybe the French can work out the Chennai-B'luru segment with further extensions to follow. The Chinese can then be left with a the TVM-Kochi-Kozhikode-Kannur-M'lore with a spoke to B'lur added later. This we may get competitive rates from each investor to jump start the build up.

SSundar
BRFite
Posts: 626
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SSundar » 13 Dec 2015 01:28

Bade wrote:If the Japanese have staked out the Mumbai-Abad segment with extension to Delhi, maybe the French can work out the Chennai-B'luru segment with further extensions to follow. The Chinese can then be left with a the TVM-Kochi-Kozhikode-Kannur-M'lore with a spoke to B'lur added later. This we may get competitive rates from each investor to jump start the build up.


Thought the Chinese were already staking out both Chennai-Bengaluru-Mysore and Chennai-Delhi.

Hyderabad would have been a great companion with Bengaluru and Chennai to complete a great "Silicon Triangle". Unfortunately, politics happened.

Bade
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7212
Joined: 23 May 2002 11:31
Location: badenberg in US administered part of America

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Bade » 13 Dec 2015 02:43

Is there that much direct traffic between Delhi-Chennai ? With Hyderabad and a few other towns in between, it could be feasible too with each segment providing for bulk of the traffic.

arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2934
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby arshyam » 13 Dec 2015 03:04

Suraj wrote:"Do we have enough demand" is one question I'd be very careful about trying to judge ahead of time. In many things we are supply constrained. That includes fast and efficient transport. It's like asking 'do we have that much electricity demand'. Build early, build sections that are low hanging fruit, and focus on keeping costs down.

True, but the cost of HSR is too much to take an aggressive bet on. I am not saying we don't need HSR, just questioning the timing w.r.t. where our economy currently is. I would love to be proved wrong on this, let's see.

Suraj wrote:In that regard, is Ahmedabad-Mumbai the best first HSR line ? If it were upto me to pick I would pick Chennai-Bangalore instead.

I have explained why I think Chennai - Bengaluru won't work right now. At least with Ahmedabad, as Bade saar says, there is an option to extend the line to Jaipur and then Delhi on relatively favourable terrain, controlled by the same party as in centre (for easier land acquisition, etc.). Delhi-Mumbai can supply enough passengers to make it viable. Chennai-Bengaluru, OTOH, will need to go to Pune and then Mumbai through much more difficult terrain, and costs will go up even more making RoI that much more difficult.

arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2934
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby arshyam » 13 Dec 2015 03:09

Bade wrote:Is there that much direct traffic between Delhi-Chennai ? With Hyderabad and a few other towns in between, it could be feasible too with each segment providing for bulk of the traffic.

In the long run, it does have potential - Madras - Hyderabad - Nagpur - Bhopal - Agra - Delhi are all big cities in their own way (commercial + tourist) and can drive a lot of traffic. A northern extension to Chandigarh - Jallandhar and Amritsar, and southern extension to Coimbatore - Kochi - Trivandrum will only add to it.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4167
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Karthik S » 13 Dec 2015 03:15

Some info on the line:

http://www.railjournal.com/index.php/hi ... -rail.html

Jica foresees that the line will require construction of 318km of embankments, 162km of viaduct, and 11 tunnels with a total length of 27.01km, including a 2.16km tunnel underneath Thane Creek to link Mumbai with Navi Mumbai....

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 11842
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Suraj » 13 Dec 2015 03:26

arshyam wrote:I am not saying we don't need HSR, just questioning the timing w.r.t. where our economy currently is. I would love to be proved wrong on this, let's see.

Which is why the Japanese plan is the best option. Their FDI combined with their half-century term loan with an additional 15 year slack. It makes more sense to let them build now than later, for it lowers their fixed setup costs. Since it's not our capital outlay, IR is not hampered from its own plans. Further, the additional technological inputs from the investment helps them. Even further, such a massive FDI serves as a vote of confidence enabling IR to seek further investments.

Even the Chinese built their first expressways this way - the Beijing-Tianjin expressway was built using World Bank loans in the early 1990s.

SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 35889
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SaiK » 13 Dec 2015 03:46

If it can be run successfully and safe, people will consider 1/2 premium to move into such transport. It might take a KFC kinda moment to realize about such change (when they opened that restaurant chain BLR, it was empty.. and then when local thugs attacked, it became international news). Network marketing now is largely a twitter and whatsapp exercise.

Traffic management is one aspect, profitability is another important point but goes well below safety and security on a tradeoff analysis.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3995
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby hanumadu » 13 Dec 2015 04:46

They conducted surveys and according to them the ticket from Mumbai to Ahmbad will be priced at 1850. The expected travellers is 40000/day. So that turns out to be 2700 cr/year. If you take away 500 cr as interest, then it leaves out 2200 cr for operating expenses. Initially, there may be a loss or less profit. But as fare rises due to inflation, the line will be more profitable.

The current price for a low cost airline is around 2500 Rs, and the flight time is 1 hr. But if you include the travel to the airport, the check in time, baggage claim, delays and of course the general cheap feeling of the low cost flight, the HSR looks like a great deal compared to flight.

Bade
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7212
Joined: 23 May 2002 11:31
Location: badenberg in US administered part of America

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Bade » 13 Dec 2015 05:16

In the current security environment for public transport, it is doubtful if the security checks like for Airlines is not going to be done for HSR passengers too. So the added time is there for HSR travel too. Maybe being fixed to rails on the ground unlike an aircraft there is more 'control' of the situation in case of security related emergencies.

SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 35889
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby SaiK » 13 Dec 2015 05:30

well, that security overhead must be discounted for travel time if you are calculating costs vs time ratio. security is cross cutting for all infrastructure and the must be borne by our extremely fragile setup where any darn fool across the yellow seas will just sail in to do a 2611.

manjgu
BRFite
Posts: 1569
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 10:33

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby manjgu » 13 Dec 2015 05:55

prahaar...while its true that its the investors perogative to decide on which project to invest...the responsibility of GOI is to see projects are contributing to indias growth and not as publicity stunts.. ie meaningful projects...

40000 passengers a day on HSR paying Rs 1800 ( assuming this figure holds till the HSR is completed) for the journey !! Rs 1800 is approx the fare of delhi>amritsar shatabdi express executive class...total no of shatabadis is 2 per day carrying about 300 executive class passengers..unless there is general economic prosperity ...not only businessmen but also families being able to afford this kind of travel , HSR will not be successful.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4167
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: Indian Railways Thread

Postby Karthik S » 13 Dec 2015 06:56

manjgu wrote:prahaar...while its true that its the investors perogative to decide on which project to invest...the responsibility of GOI is to see projects are contributing to indias growth and not as publicity stunts.. ie meaningful projects...

40000 passengers a day on HSR paying Rs 1800 ( assuming this figure holds till the HSR is completed) for the journey !! Rs 1800 is approx the fare of delhi>amritsar shatabdi express executive class...total no of shatabadis is 2 per day carrying about 300 executive class passengers..unless there is general economic prosperity ...not only businessmen but also families being able to afford this kind of travel , HSR will not be successful.


Sir, it's not a publicity stunt. The feasibility study was conducted by both the countries and has been given a go ahead now. The first plan to have HSR was envisaged back in 2010. The line will be extended till Delhi. With DMIC, there will lot of people in this region who'll require good connectivity. As someone pointed out before, you can't expect to make profits in public transportation. Please see how many metros, railways and airlines in various cities of the world make a net operating profit. Does that mean the respective governments made wrong investments in them? For instance, read sometime back London underground was realizing losses, does that mean it was a bad investment? Imagine Such cities without public transport. We have hedged our risks by going through the FDI route, and given the offer, it's a good decision to go ahead with the project.


Return to “Trash Can Archive”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests