China Military Watch

Thomas Kolarek · Post by **Thomas Kolarek** » 27 Aug 2010 08:58

What else would US do. They will impose sanction

All the phony US World Organizations from UN, WTO, WB will chime in the same tune
Chinese are really showing their frustrations with India in recent years. Fear brewing hot probably

TonyMontana wrote:

An angry New Delhi shot off a strongly worded demarche to Beijing, protesting its decision. Soon thereafter, India refused permission to two Chinese defence officials to come to India for a course at the National Defence College. A subsequent visit by Indian military officials to China was also cancelled by India.

To ensure that there was no ambiguity about the reason for its annoyance, New Delhi has since also bluntly told Beijing that the unexpected decision to block Lt-Gen Jaswal's visit to China was the reason behind India's decisions.

India has already responded. The whole point of these actions is to keep the issue "disputed". The bigger the "scene" India makes, the more you play into Chinese hands. If North Korea refuses Jimmy Carter a visa because they claims Georgia. What do you think the US will do?

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 27 Aug 2010 09:00

This constant needling one day going to make Indians declare Tibet as disputed territory. In accordance with the annexation of princely states, Dalai Lama may one day proclaim annexation of Tibet to India as an autonomous state, the kind he is pleading with the Chinese. Then the real fun starts. Already this needling made Indians to raise new divisions and it only going to go worse.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 27 Aug 2010 09:03

uddu wrote: Rather than allow the Chinese to Insult Indians in this manner, the GOI can start issuing stapled visas to Uighur (Comparing Islamic Uighurs with the Islamic Kashmiris if the Chinese want it in that manner will be better). Stop any PLA officer from visiting India if they are posted in Uighuristan.

Diplomatic equivalent of a pissing contest. It's beneath a nation like India.

uddu wrote: Keep Tibet off from the equation. Tibet is an Independent nation and hence no compromise about that.

Tibet remain occupied.

uddu wrote: Start having diplomatic links with Taiwan and strong military relationship with the Taiwanese (For diplomatic sake).

More excuse for the Chinese to spend MORE money on their military. Will India go to war for Taiwan? Will there be a war?

uddu wrote: Have strong strategic partnership with the Vietnamese. Provide Vietnam military hardware including the INSAS, Tejas, Akash, Brahmos, Shivaliks and things upto Agni-1 series of missiles.

China will now openly (and some people in the west will see as legitamitely) supplies Pakistan with even more military hardware at a even more discounted price. Will there be a land war between China and Vietname soon? What about between India and Pakistan?

Patrick Cusack · Post by **Patrick Cusack** » 27 Aug 2010 09:07

If Kashmir is disputed - How come nobody is mentioning Sinkiang is disputed - exactly the same problem.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 27 Aug 2010 09:31

Kanson wrote: This constant needling one day going to make Indians declare Tibet as disputed territory. .

I think in the eyes of the world Tibet IS disputed.

Kanson wrote: In accordance with the annexation of princely states, Dalai Lama may one day proclaim annexation of Tibet to India as an autonomous state, the kind he is pleading with the Chinese.

I proclaim the annexcation of Pakistan to India as an autonomous state. Now what?

Thomas Kolarek · Post by **Thomas Kolarek** » 27 Aug 2010 10:21

http://www.peopleforum.cn/viewthread.ph ... a=page%3D1

How likely is China's launch of a limited war against India?
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2010-8-27 10:49

A Chinese officer tries an Indian weapon during the China-India army joint anti-terrorism training in India's Belgaum on Dec. 6, 2008.

With China, India is always in a capability vs. intention dilemma. China has a vastly superior conventional force and a decisive advantage in nuclear capability and can attack India at will. But it isn’t overly aggressive and professes peaceful co-existence.

India’s unresolved territorial and boundary dispute with China and an un-demarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC) on the Indo-Tibetan (India’s official position is the Tibetan autonomous region of China) border do not augur well for long-term peace and stability between these two Asian giants. The next major incident on the LAC could lead to a localized border conflict as either Indian patience with Chinese intransigence wears thin or the Chinese look at Indian attempts to build infrastructure and develop the border areas as the adoption of an aggressive forward posture. Hence, in the foreseeable future, a limited border war between the two cannot be entirely ruled out.

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2010-8-27 10:49

Indian Navy conducting coastal security exercise

shang_class.jpg (65.17 KB)
2010-8-27 10:49

China's Shang class Nuclear-powered attack submarine

Even the Sino-Indian maritime relationship has an adversarial potential as China is engaged in developing a “string of pearls” strategy to acquire port facilities around India at Hangyi, Hambantota, Gwadar and in the Maldives. While Chinese nuclear submarines can operate in the northern Indian Ocean for extended periods even today, India’s insecurity would be heightened when China establishes its naval presence in the Indian Ocean through deployment of its surface ships and when port facilities become available to it by about 2015.

China has been following a policy of peace and tranquility with India at the strategic level while simultaneously keeping up the pressure at the tactical level through claims to the state of South China (Arunachal Pradesh) followed up by frequent intrusions, refusal of visa to the local residents and objections to the approval of an Asian Development Bank loan to India because this region would also have been a beneficiary. Clearly, China’s strategy is not to rock the boat too hard but to give itself leeway to raise the ante whenever it finds it convenient to do so. India must also utilize this window of relative tranquility with China for its economic development while simultaneously upgrading its military capabilities to squarely face any future Chinese threat.

India’s trade with China, which has crossed $50 billion in 2008-09 may not by itself be able to completely deter conflict. Hence, it is necessary for India to ensure that its national power grows comprehensively along with its growing economy.

Besides, India’s policy of nuclear deterrence lacks credibility with our aggressive neighbours. India lacks the inter-continental ballistic missile capability which means it will not be able to reach the far ends of a large neighbour. Its Agni missiles have not been tested adequately. At a maximum of 80, the number of warheads available to India does not fulfill even the low-end requirements of minimum deterrence. Add to all this the lingering doubts over the efficacy of the thermonuclear device tested in 1998. The outside world doesn’t believe India is ready to respond to a nuclear conflagration. (From Forbes)

According to Chinese experts on international relations, China and India have a lot in common though there are disputed bilateral issues. For example, China and India adopted the same stance without communication in the Copenhagen Climate Conference.

They point out western media's negative reports on the relation between China and India are more than positive reports. Sometimes, they describe "the threat from China" more serious than India itself deems.

Western media like to exaggerate conflicts between China and India. Only when the west sees the two countries in conflicts, it will feel at ease.

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 27 Aug 2010 11:14

TonyMontana wrote: Diplomatic equivalent of a pissing contest. It's beneath a nation like India.

This is how things work and it's not a pissing contest but hard diplomacy. That's how things must be, but sadly not. You hold on to one aspect of Dharma while totally neglecting the other part of it, which is hard response.

TonyMontana wrote: Tibet remain occupied.

But India can have a stance that Tibet is an independent nation. Don't say that some preveious govt agreed to something. With China, which did not agree to any principles when it comes to gain for them, then there is no such agreement and high principles that India has to hold onto. Nothing.

TonyMontana wrote: More excuse for the Chinese to spend MORE money on their military. Will India go to war for Taiwan? Will there be a war?

You may be Buddha reincarnated or a PLA officer. You talk as if they are not doing it. They don't stop building their military to the level possible because there are peaceful Indians in their neighborhood. Indian and Indians must do what is necessary to stop the Chinese not that the Chinese may get offended because of that and build more. They are building more. The time is for India to build more. Will China fight India for Pakistan?

TonyMontana wrote: China will now openly (and some people in the west will see as legitamitely) supplies Pakistan with even more military hardware at a even more discounted price. Will there be a land war between China and Vietname soon? What about between India and Pakistan?

The Chinese are doing their level best in suppling Pakistan with whatever they can. If they do it openly or covertly is not going to make any change except India strengthening countries like Vietnam. And if the Chinese still play hard, it's time that the whole of ASEAN is flooded with Indian military equipment. Lets make some money and let them stop the Chinese as well. A war? Ask the Chicoms about a war b/w India and China.

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 27 Aug 2010 11:25

Patrick Cusack wrote:If Kashmir is disputed - How come nobody is mentioning Sinkiang is disputed - exactly the same problem.

This is the stance that India must take. If the Chinese have Khujli with J&K being part of India, surely Indians have more Khujli with Shinjang being part of China.

Time that we even equate Taiwan with Pakistan and any kind of assistance to Pakistan which is a territory of India will result in military sales to Taiwan. Anyway the territory under Pakistan belongs to India under the One India policy.

The only thing is that with Taiwan we will not be able to provide high tech equipments which can be provided easily to Vietnam.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 27 Aug 2010 11:52

PLA Ballistic Missiles
Sean O'Connor

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 27 Aug 2010 11:54

In a way it is good. After they visit china, they turn china lovers. I have observed it in a lot of them. By the way of national media, we have a def min and an adm as an example.

KiranM · Post by **KiranM** » 27 Aug 2010 13:21

Folks should understand the art of diplomacy is not just being nice to people, but also kicking a$$ with nice words.

Regards,
Kiran

Kailash · Post by **Kailash** » 27 Aug 2010 16:42

Thomas Kolarek wrote:The news really makes Blood Boil..India should disengage with Chinese Telecom communications as a protest.

Craig Alpert wrote:
China denies visa to top general in J&K

There is our response:
India cancels China defence exchanges after visa row : BBC

India has cancelled defence exchanges with China after China refused a visa to a Kashmir-based general.

**Added later
Antony rules out breaking defence ties with China

"It is not the question of breaking defence ties with China. We have close ties with China though there could be some problems occasionally. There may be small problems here and there but the broader approach of defence ties would not be affected," said Antony

So from what I can gather, exchanges have stopped, but ties continue...

arindam · Post by **arindam** » 27 Aug 2010 17:03

Now China's response...

Visa row: China in damage control mode

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 445831.cms

Amid reports that an Indian Army General was denied a visa to visit China, the country's envoy Zhang Yan visited South Block on Friday afternoon to meet officials of the ministry of external affairs, sources said.

Varoon Shekhar · Post by **Varoon Shekhar** » 27 Aug 2010 17:21

"The whole point of these actions is to keep the issue "disputed". The bigger the "scene" India makes, the more you play into Chinese hands."

And the alternative principled action was, what?

China has shown what a contrived, manufactured country it is. Everything is about the state, politbureau, Red Army, Communist Party, and pursuing a crude power-driven ethno-centric philosophy.

yantra · Post by **yantra** » 27 Aug 2010 18:41

uddu wrote:
Patrick Cusack wrote:If Kashmir is disputed - How come nobody is mentioning Sinkiang is disputed - exactly the same problem.
This is the stance that India must take. If the Chinese have Khujli with J&K being part of India, surely Indians have more Khujli with Shinjang being part of China.

Time that we even equate Taiwan with Pakistan and any kind of assistance to Pakistan which is a territory of India will result in military sales to Taiwan. Anyway the territory under Pakistan belongs to India under the One India policy. The only thing is that with Taiwan we will not be able to provide high tech equipments which can be provided easily to Vietnam.

Good point. We can certainly 'enhance our military co-operation' and have Taiwan as a "preferred trading partner".

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 27 Aug 2010 19:35

i think its worth remembering that china's interest in kashmir is not just offensive, but actually driven from a defensive fear of losing control over tibet and who knows what else, the paquis are just trojans (of the rubber variety)

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 27 Aug 2010 20:18

uddu wrote: Tibet remain occupied.
But India can have a stance that Tibet is an independent nation. Don't say that some preveious govt agreed to something. With China, which did not agree to any principles when it comes to gain for them, then there is no such agreement and high principles that India has to hold onto. Nothing.

Ohh!! Please......who are you trying to scare, some kindergarteners in red fancy outfit? How many anniversaries have we celebrated with a similar stance with POK?

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 27 Aug 2010 20:21

Indian stance is "autonomous part of current China." If it ever breaks up, then they will have to renegotiate. Indian also does not say that it was historically Chinese territory.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 27 Aug 2010 20:33

Such sudden influx of anti-china material in India media looks suspicious. Things were like this since decades. They have been trying to undermine Indian interests for quite some time now.

Till now they were all handled diplomatically (using Ghandin principles

).

But suddenly our bureaucrats and media (which is totally controlled) seems to have grown balls out of thin air.

I hope we are not being played by Yanks here to fulfill their dreams.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 27 Aug 2010 20:38

Sid wrote:
I hope we are not being played by Yanks here to fulfill their dreams.

There has to be some justification for yanks to enter India.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 27 Aug 2010 21:24

Acharya wrote:
Sid wrote:
I hope we are not being played by Yanks here to fulfill their dreams.
There has to be some justification for yanks to enter India.

Well, this is real tough for the GOI here....damned if does and damned if does not......

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 27 Aug 2010 21:33

rohitvats wrote:
Well, this is real tough for the GOI here....damned if does and damned if does not......

50 years of neglect will get you in this situation

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 27 Aug 2010 22:07

Acharya wrote:
rohitvats wrote:
Well, this is real tough for the GOI here....damned if does and damned if does not......
50 years of neglect will get you in this situation

And for a change if the same GOI tries to do something straight, we can always have our conspiracy theories........

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 27 Aug 2010 22:10

Good one

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 27 Aug 2010 22:38

KiranM wrote:Folks should understand the art of diplomacy is not just being nice to people, but also kicking a$$ with nice words.

Regards,
Kiran

Right saar as somebody mentioned "diplomacy is an art where diplomate can presuade enemy to go to hell and enemy is eagerly waiting to go to hell"

Varoon Shekhar · Post by **Varoon Shekhar** » 28 Aug 2010 00:59

"India has already responded. The whole point of these actions is to keep the issue "disputed". The bigger the "scene" India makes, the more you play into Chinese hands."

Basically, the position of Tony Montana is that India should appease China, or else face more irritants and abuse. But perhaps Montana should tell us what advantage India gets from this appeasement? Oh, I see, less irritants and abuse- I answered my own question.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 28 Aug 2010 01:41

The lesson, it is ~~sometimes~~ manytimes advantageous to be a prick

yantra · Post by **yantra** » 28 Aug 2010 03:32

India should drop its support to the so called "One China" policy under which Tibet (and Taiwan, Mongolia, etc, etc) becomes part of China, unless China stops giving arms to Porkis, and considers J&K a part of India (not a "disputed territory"). This incident was probably in response to MMS meeting HH Dalai Lama.

Unless India shows some spine, China will keep pricking and poking.

arindam · Post by **arindam** » 28 Aug 2010 03:35

Tit for tat......

Visa row: India reads out riot act to Chinese envoy

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 447854.cms

India summoned the Chinese ambassador on Friday and has refused to allow visits of two Chinese military officials to protest against Beijing's refusal of a visa to a general in the Indian Army.

India was also cold to China's fence-mending bid by offering to send a colonel-level official to New Delhi for talks with joint secretary (international cooperation) in the defence ministry. With passions running high, there was no certainty that the government would allow the visit scheduled for September 7.

Chinese ambassador Zhang Yan met joint secretary (east Asia) Gautam Bambawale in the foreign office to discuss the issue against the backdrop of outrage in India over the the provocation and Beijing's anxiety to de-escalate tensions. The message India gave was that China was solely responsible for the current fracas and that the onus of untying the knot rested with it, said sources.

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 28 Aug 2010 04:42

Jaswal visited China in 2008 as IV Corps Commander

The IV Corps area of responsibility includes Arunachal Pradesh and the "disputed" border with Tibet. So China's message seems to be that AP is part of India and the Tibet border is not disputed......excellent!

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 28 Aug 2010 06:46

New Reports Warn of Chinese Naval Buildup

Capturing Taiwan would help China penetrate the “first island chain” that runs from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines and then to Indonesia. Beijing thinks of the waters between the mainland and the island nations to the east as being Chinese territorial seas. The Pentagon report notes that the PRC is developing its own legal doctrine which is “inconsistent with international law” in regard to control of the trade routes and seabed resources of the region.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 28 Aug 2010 09:16

Beijing is stretching itself thin. Taiwan, South china Sea, Shadow Boxing with US, border issues with India etc. However, the resources are freed due to Russia- China bonhomie. Some one should work on that department. China always plays of one super power against other.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 28 Aug 2010 12:01

I had outlined similar opinion on Great game thread some time ago....

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 28 Aug 2010 12:33

I don't seem to understand what china hopes to accomplish by being an occasional irritant with India. Clearly it seems to have shot itself in the foot militarily atleast. China provocative posture has forced govt. Of India to embark upon a military build up against china wrt mountain divisions , rapid reaction forces , air bases , missile squadrons and what not. In short they have forced India to build deterrence against them , making any future military action by china all the more difficult .

ashi · Post by **ashi** » 28 Aug 2010 12:45

Nihat wrote:I don't seem to understand what china hopes to accomplish by being an occasional irritant with India. Clearly it seems to have shot itself in the foot militarily atleast. China provocative posture has forced govt. Of India to embark upon a military build up against china wrt mountain divisions , rapid reaction forces , air bases , missile squadrons and what not. In short they have forced India to build deterrence against them , making any future military action by china all the more difficult .

Maybe keep putting the pressure on India and forcing India into an arm race? Most part of dollars the Chinese spent on military circular back to their economy, but same thing can't be said to India.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 28 Aug 2010 12:48

Nihat wrote:I don't seem to understand what china hopes to accomplish by being an occasional irritant with India.

It is the balance of power. With every other country reeling under stress and pressure and Pak being under distress with flooding there is no body to stop India and its progress. China is the last big country which can halt India from expanding. With India GDP growth likely to outpace China soon there is no choice but to increase the cost to India to keep growth smoothly.

Vril · Post by **Vril** » 29 Aug 2010 15:24

there was news peice on India TV where the mouth peice newspaper of chinese government has come out with an article on whether there should be a war with India.

i think the deleted by moderator are really upto something. this is not only provocative but threatening.what is our preparation if they actually do something nasty??

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 29 Aug 2010 17:07

Nihat wrote:I don't seem to understand what china hopes to accomplish by being an occasional irritant with India. Clearly it seems to have shot itself in the foot militarily atleast. China provocative posture has forced govt. Of India to embark upon a military build up against china wrt mountain divisions , rapid reaction forces , air bases , missile squadrons and what not. In short they have forced India to build deterrence against them , making any future military action by china all the more difficult .

1. By invading India China hopes to grab parts of NE and Kashmir; and eliminate India as a strategic threat.
2. China has not shot itself in the foot, after what happened in 1962 India should have been prepared to deal with China. The facts are it is not, as you mentioned India has embarked on a military buildup.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 29 Aug 2010 19:22

What China has done
1) According to the reports, panda is already in northern areas of POK.
2) wants Arunachal Pradesh.
3) wants India to stop any Tibetan protests and accept its sovereignty over Tibet.
4) has tightly embraced Pakistan.
5) needles India whenever it can-ex visas, noises about J&K etc
6) trying to build ports around India(string of pearls) however efficient they are.
7) Being a permanent member of UNO and other institutions has some kind of power compared to India. Ex- denying loans thru ADB etc.
8 ) has a better economy(2nd biggest now) coupled with one party system and secrecy. Overall has a greater effect in enforcing its policies.

what can India do
1) India can protest about northern areas etc. what else it can do? because Pakistan will not listen to India. Less said about panda. US at best will be ambivalent- explore the pros and cons- likely will side with Pakistan for the moment. Even if it sides India, uncle cannot force dragon out of pok.
2) About Arunachal Pradesh- it is a bargaining chip for china. India should raise issues about Tibet (see 3)
3) India is a democratic country. Protests are legitimate in India. For India this is the least cost option till it becomes stronger economically and militarily(relative to dragon). Tibetans and Indians can be organised to stage protests in front of dragon embassy and in various places in India once in months. Main issue is to keep the Tibet illegal occupation under focus. Keep it under simmer.OUT OF SIGHT IS OUT OF MIND. How it can be done-a)By frequently organizing it say once in few months, people all over the world are made aware of it, by particularly Tibetans all over the world. b)MPs from different parties can be made aware & to raise it frequently in parliament. If china demands an end to it, we can say that India is democracy onlee, we allow all these under constitution. We can also can needle them to be democratic etc.( requires b*lls for this). c) Media should be made to publish articles of defence thinktank etc on china’s illegal occupation of Tibet and its demand on India—making Indians aware of the dragon.Forewarned is forearmed
4) Regarding Pakistan—a) continue to grow away from Pakistan economically, military build up to continue.b) Give support covertly to separatist movements inside Pakistan(requires change of mindset and b*lls). c)Be proactive in Afghanisthan to have some leverage in the power structure. In this we should tackle uncle that India has to be in the loop in any arrangement they make- if not make things difficult for them by just increasing military build up.Also explore with Iran-Russia etc for alternatives. (Requires b*lls for this)Any day Afghans prefer Indians to Pakistan. This should be used to full extent. d) increase our contacts with ASEAN countries, embrace Burma more tightly and offer whatever is possible including defence equipments etc. Offer lip service to humans rights and US led group of nations wrt Burma.
5) India can needle dragon easily—India media can raise the issues dragon has with its neighbours truthfully and frequently. Retired Military personnel and defence thinktanks should be given more coverage in mainstream media and regularly up the ante in this.
6) String of pearls strategy may not be effective. It works beautifully only in Pakistan which has a visceral hatred of India. With other neighbouring countries India can effectively stymie it. Also many nations like to be independent and make decisions on their own. Help them by offering economic incentives and military equipment. Costs can be reduced. When the smaller nations become reasonably economically independent they can withstand the dragon pressures.
7) India is not a permanent member of UNO. However it can raise issues in the general assembly about Tibet. (Requires b*lls for this) remember out of sight out of mind.
8 ) Indian economy is growing but still behind dragon. It will take a few years/decades to near it. Demographic dividends are in the next few years onwards. It is not exactly predictable as we cannot see it now. However policies should be framed by GOI to capitalize on it.
9) Others like controlling of Maoists insurgency naga problem etc should be vigorously solved – may take few months to years(likely) but everything starts with few small steps. it is a tall order but should be done.
10) Of course simultaneously education, improvement of social conditions of poor people should be continued with economic growth.

The above can be done together rather than exclusively concentrating on economic growth alone. They have to be finely calibrated to achieve the results however small or big.

As of today India can start doing 1,2,3,5 right away. some of them India is already doing currently.
Put the spotlight back on dragon on its troublesome problems with its neighbours.
We have to do it irrespective of western nations support because it pertains to our land and freedom.

yantra · Post by **yantra** » 29 Aug 2010 20:06

It could even be Unkil's strategy to create a threat environment in the region for their own strategic benefit.