China Military Watch

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 19 Sep 2009 07:40

johnny and patrick, did you read my post ?

johnny_m · Post by **johnny_m** » 19 Sep 2009 08:19

Yes i did but my comments bar the last one was in accordance with the forum topic. China Military Watch.

Patrick Cusack · Post by **Patrick Cusack** » 19 Sep 2009 08:23

Self deleted

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 19 Sep 2009 12:00

johnny_m wrote:Yes i did but my comments bar the last one was in accordance with the forum topic. China Military Watch.

sorry, it was more foreign policy with little or no military content. if you aren't careful you run the risk of losing your posts. not every mod will have the patience to move posts from one thread to another.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 19 Sep 2009 12:12

http://www.fas.org/irp/dni/osc/china-imagery.pdf

PLA training in counter satellite surveillance.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 19 Sep 2009 22:10

Rahul M, dada, no agent of CIA/KGB/FSB can identify your location
("Location: aadim kaler chandim him, todaye bandha ghorar dim !! "

)
unless he/she is a Bangla agent.

Anyway, a person in know, deployed in Indi-Chini border oncle told me that they
looked down upon their chinese counterparts because those guys were so poorly
equipped, shabbily dressed, and haggard looking. On the other-side, the indian camp
was better dressed, wellfed, and had better equipments. Chinis were numerically superior,
but indi side had far more fire-power (heavy machine guns, etc). During border
meetings, chinis were more eager to get handouts/gifts from the indi side - mainly
hindi filmy magazines with full page scantily dressed 'naach girls' and cigarettes. ...
...But that was in mid nineties. Things might have changed by now. Who knows.

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 19 Sep 2009 22:27

^^^
aroor has reported that such a proposal is being considered seriously. I would hope that the IAF buys new mki's and modify at least some of those for naval strike rather than use the regular mki.

gagan, which bases in IOR for china ? a penny packet deployment without means to protect them will be a disaster for any force risking it. say, for example a couple of PLAN destroyers are based in qwadar. (hypothetical situation as will be clear)

why this will not happen
a) to give such a force a fighting chance (no more, most likely a suicide) PLAN would have to base its most advanced vessels, the 05* ships. they have too few of those to spare for an overseas deployment.

b) a small surface fleet deployment of middling tech and capabilities would be mincemeat in the opening hours of hostilities. you would be better served to gather your forces at one place with overlapping protection.

c) again, the only possible force would be subs, these can operate without a large cover.

With an expanding sub fleet ourselves we should be able to track Chink subs in IOR for the purpose of identifying their unique signature.

This "string of pearls" policy has the capability to fall flat on it's face , it's very good today though when we have a limited number of ageing subs , destroyers and surface ships so we cannot track all movements of Chinese vessels and subs in the area.

If hostilities do not break out in the IOR then all this series of ports would accomplish is that it would expose Chinese vessels to the ever growing fleet of IN .

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Sep 2009 15:23

The Chinese repotedly effectively killed India's ADB loan for Ar.Pr.,by getting a vote taken where Oz and Japan surprisingly voted with it.What we require is both a short term solution to defeating China's masterplan against india in the Himalayas,as well as a long term plan to scuttle China's IOR ambitions.

For China,it is far easier to use the land route through Pak and Iran to access the Gulf in strength.It has a continous link through the Tibetan railway,excellent Tibetan road infrastructure and air bases and the Karakorum Highway.The new link to pak through territory occupied by it in Aksai Chin is another destabilising move,as it puts further pressure upon India in the Siachen region.Where we have an advantage is thanks to geography,Chinese warships and merchantmen have to first travel through the S.China Sea,round Singapore and transit into the IOR,through the Malacca Straits,a vital choke-point.The other routes into the IOR are also straits farther south through Indonesian waters.Hence the keen interest in Burma and Lanka.It is far easier for the Chinese to access facilities in Burma,another military junta ruled entity,just like China,NoKo and Pak (most of the time).It can only for the moment support its merchant fleet and efffectively monitor the IOR with its SSGNs and conventional subs best.Until China acquires carriers ,it will not be able to project power into the IOR,though it is stamping its presence in the IOR wiht its anti-piracy patrols off Somalia.

The IN's ambitious plans to set up formidable bases and facilities in the A&N islands,Lakshadweep,plus new base facilities and logistic agreements with nations like Mauritius,the Maldives,etc.,indicates that it expects the PLAN making its foray into the IOR in the coming years,but is planning to counter it by strengthening India's defensive and offensive forward capabilities.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 22 Sep 2009 16:56

China announces its naval power projection blue-water ambitions.

http://in.reuters.com/article/topNews/i ... dChannel=0

China to project naval, air power further off shore
Tue Sep 22, 2009

BEIJING (Reuters) - China plans to transform its naval and air forces to project power further from its shores, China's defence minister said a week before the nation puts on a massive military parade showcasing its strength.

The navy will expand to include blue-water capability as well as "relatively strong" coastal defence, and the air force will evolve from a purely defensive capability to include both defensive and offensive stances, General Liang Guanglie said.

China has long held a goal to develop an aircraft carrier, which would allow it to project military power far beyond its shores. Last winter, the Chinese navy deployed to waters off Somalia to protect commercial shipping from pirates.

"According to our strategic plan, the army will transform from regional defence to a mobile force deploying across our whole territory, the navy will have a relatively strong coastal defence ability to fight wars far out at sea, and the air force will shift from defending national territory to defensive and offensive capabilities," Liang said

China has boosted its international military cooperation and debuted a website and a white paper to show its transparency, but regional rivals including Japan still remain wary of the country's growing military strength.

"Now we have developed military-use satellites and advanced fighter aircraft in the air, newly designed tanks, cannons and missiles on land and advanced warships and submarines on the sea," Liang said.

"You can say that whatever the Western developed nations' militaries have, we basically have as well, and much of the equipment capability has reached the most advanced level," he added in an interview posted on the Defence Ministry's website (www.mod.gov.cn) late on Monday.

China's military now numbers 2.3 million, down from its peak at 6 million, Liang said. The Communist armies commanded about 5.5 million people in 1949, at the end of the civil war against the Nationalists or Kuomintang (KMT).

It plans to complete its mechanisation drive by 2020, and make progress on its information technology initiatives. Continued...

Liang defended China's battle-readiness, saying a campaign to improve the "informatisation" of the military and raise the quality of the officer corps meant the military was better able to defend China's sovereignty.

The Chinese military has been focused on gaining control of Taiwan, which has been ruled separately since 1949, and much of its military capability is directed towards the island.

Natural disaster mobilisation during severe flooding in 1998 and a devastating earthquake last year had helped the military's responsiveness and cohesion, he said.

The army will transform from a regionally based defence deployment to mobile deployment across China's territory as part of the military modernisation strategy, he said.

The Second Artillery Division, which is in charge of nuclear weapons, will also control some conventional missiles under the strategic plan, Liang said.

China holds a National Day parade in the capital, Beijing, on Oct. 1 showcasing its military strength.

(Reporting by Lucy Hornby; Editing by Nick Macfie

tejas · Post by **tejas** » 22 Sep 2009 20:08

Philip, the ADB loan was not killed. The Chinese just got official confirmation that the bank did not recognize that Arunachal was Indian territory. Hopefully when it comes to a FTA with Australia the GOI remembers their role in this affair.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 22 Sep 2009 20:16

Philip wrote:The Chinese repotedly effectively killed India's ADB loan for Ar.Pr.,by getting a vote taken where Oz and Japan surprisingly voted with it.What we require is both a short term solution to defeating China's masterplan against india in the Himalayas,as well as a long term plan to scuttle China's IOR ambitions.

My apologies, but I'm little confused by the link between India's ADB loan and strengthening Military. You are not saying that if India achieves her military objectives as you outlined in your post, next ADB loan for AP will pass, are you? Because no matter, how much India modernizes it military, AP loan will never pass. TO be honest, the AP loan thing is so absurd, it makes my blood boil. When are we going to stop begging. Its enough. First we begged to British, then US, and now Asian countries. What happened to that Race Course owner, Hasan Ali Khan, in Mumbai and Delhi who was hiding Rs. 30,000 crores in back taxes in the Swiss bank? Why can't we he pay AP and help us buy some modern weaponry..

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 22 Sep 2009 23:39

Paging RayC Sir and anyone else who has been posted to/served in Leh or been to that place.

A quick question:

How does one reach Karakoram Pass and Aksai Chin overland from Leh? Is there a motorable route? Does it follow Shyok river from Leh-Khardungla-Nubra Valley-Shyok Village and comes out at the foot of the Rimo glacier?

Also, is there a road from Darbuk to Shyok Village?

Thanx in advance.

Added Later: Paging Senior Ayatollahs--does any one have links to e-book(s) which cronicle historical travel in Karakorams? Especially, trvael from Leh to Yarkand/Kashgar/Sahidulla or in those parts of the woods?

-- I'm especially looking for source to identify the geostrategic dynamics in 15-20th century which affeted the Ladakh Kingdom and its relation to its neighbors to North
-- I also want to understand the historic extend of Sinkiang kingdom and what is the basis of Chinese claimes on Aksai Chin?
-- Also, trying to understand the significance of Aksai Chin to Chinese, apart from the land route.

Any direction will be of great help.

animesharma · Post by **animesharma** » 23 Sep 2009 00:22

I guess "Beyond the Himalayas- by Murdo MacDonald will be a nice read for you.

I searched it off google and found this abstract ( I suggest you do the same)
"Murdo MacDonald-Bayne was born the 21st day of June 1887...........
.....If you
are fortunate enough to acquire his books, Beyond the Himalayas and The Yoga of the Christ, you will find
details of his experiences and travels in Tibet, of spending time and study and practice of the higher spiritual
instructions which he received from the living Masters and formed the foundation for his later teachings.
He travelled many miles through rugged Tibetan terrain, visiting lamaseries where he witnessed extraordinary
feats and demonstrations of both a spiritual and physical nature. He developed his talents of telepathy and
learned to leave his body at will, mastered pranayama, and acquired a profound knowledge of the Eternal and
Everlasting Life through meditations of several days’ duration.

He was a damn traveller..
"

Here's the full text of book http://macdonaldbayne.homestead.com/BEYONDindex_1.html

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 23 Sep 2009 06:45

VikB wrote:An observation - Quite contrary to what is pretended to be, it is the Chinese that have been bitten by the we-want-to-be-like-Amerikka cum hollywood bug. We can call it a PR drive also but it is very clear that they want to look 'awesome' like the Americans. ...reminded me of the Desert Storm... This strong desire to be seen and respected as the Americans.

That is true, and it is a disturbing thought. The Chinese high command was genuinely shocked by Desert Storm, because it believed quantity at least had some quality of its own. The rapid fall of Iraqi Army disturbed them and sent them on a self-examination drive. Two thoughts came out: First to appear and essentially be American-like to their poorer, Eastern Bloc-equipped neighbors; secondly to pursue asymmetric approach to the richer and America-backed neighbors. So far they have been methodically pursuing both the approaches. It is disturbing all around, except maybe for the Russians who have blithely dropped their nuclear NFU policy and spooked Beijing into wariness in relation to themselves.

Patrick Cusack · Post by **Patrick Cusack** » 23 Sep 2009 07:13

I just noticed the pictures of Chinese soldiers they are all in green - ready for the tropics and jungle warfare. It looks like they are seriously prepping to bludgeon down Indias doors all at the same time - Tibet side and Arunachal Pradesh together one fine morning before fall rains start.

The question I have is can we can sleep assured by the fact that Russia has enough nukes to wipeout China many times over if they start a war - will Russia give us cover or dissuade China from starting this mis-adventure?.

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 23 Sep 2009 07:31

Patrick Cusack wrote:The question I have is can we can sleep assured by the fact that Russia has enough nukes to wipeout China many times over if they start a war - will Russia give us cover or dissuade China from starting this mis-adventure?.

No and no. The Russian arsenal is solely for its protection and cover for its forces, not for anyone else - not today. Back in 60s when the PRC has nukes in 10s, maybe. Not now.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 23 Sep 2009 07:35

Patrick Cusack wrote:The question I have is can we can sleep assured by the fact that Russia has enough nukes to wipeout China many times over if they start a war - will Russia give us cover or dissuade China from starting this mis-adventure?.

The frank answer is NO.
NO nation in the world is going to get into a war with another to protect the interests of another nation. Russia is an almost equal ally to both India and China, although its relations with china are tempered by the border war they had with the Chinese. China however remains a very important trading partner to Russia.
The same aspect of trade binds the US's hands wrt china. Stale pronouncements apart, neither of the two nations (US and Russia) will really do much to curb the china should it decide to indulge in a military skirmish.
The onerous task will be left to India, and GoI will have to bear the consequences of their actions and their crimes of ommission and commission in trying to sweep the chinese threat under the carpet all these years. The India soldier will again pay with his precious blood to halt the chinese.

But don't expect the death of an Indian soldier to change anything in New Delhi.
One, because the war will be fought in some far off border in the jungles of Arunachal or in the icy heights of the laddakh, far off from New Delhi or any TV camera crews.
Two, TV camera crews will not see the gory aspects of war, will not see our soldiers dying because GoI underequipped them.
Three, Kargil. The Chinese aim to do a Kargil on India. The previous Kargil did not wake GoI from its slumber. The Army was talking about its shortage of Artillery guns then, the army lacked field artillery radars among a few things. Today, the IA still has virtually the same numbers of 155mm artillery pieces, the field artillery radars are simply too few in number to be much use along the huge border with china. The SAM cover is simply too thin and streached out, and only covering major airbases. India does not have significant land attack cruise missile capability to deter / respond adequately - the Brahmos is too shortlegged and in too few a number to be of much significance. The supply lines still depend on days of travel on mules - yes the IA still uses mules to get to some posts in eastern arunachal, while the chines have roads more or less all along, even a CAT-3 equipped airport right next to the border (Imagine only IGI airport Delhi is CAT-3 equipped!). I could go on and on, it will only lead to more heart break.

The time is just right for China this winter of 2009-2010 to humiliate India.

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 23 Sep 2009 08:43

^^^

Gagan my friend.....after spending some time on the forum and reading a lot of posts, I understand where you are coming from. It is good to be able to criticize the government's polices, ineptness, vision and lack of strategy....thats what a democracy allows us to do.

However, let's refrain from casting demoralizing tones...while at the same time not get complacent. GoI has failed us time and again but, fortunately the armed forces of India have not let us down.

Also, while India may not be up 2 speed vis-a-vis China just as yet but, the India of 2009 is not the India of 1962 either

I hope you take this in the right spirit!

A request to the mods...eventhough there are plenty of China related threads
How about starting a thread on the lines of a SWOT analysis???
i.e. (India versus China - Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats)

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Sep 2009 15:43

If such a comparison is done,it should take into account a regional comparitive analysis and what strengths China can bring to bear in any spat with India.For example,China has sent a few naval vessels to combat Somalian pirates,which could be used by it to protect Chene oil tankers transiting the Gulf.These ships likewise bereft of any air cover would be sitting ducks to the IN which could send them to Davy Jones' Locker in several ways.In fact should the Chinese cross over into Indian territory,the first Chinese casualty shoud be their warships and any other naval assets in the IOR and the interception and capture or sinking of its oil tankers.To protect these warships and merchantmen,China might very well send into the IOR in advance a couple of its subs,which would refuel at Paki ports in particular,Karachi and Gwadar.Any such movement of PLAN assets as mentioned would indicate that China IS plannign a quick spat in the Himalayas,especially anj "excursion" into AP.Come November we should see our first Akula-2 arrive,the Chakra,hopefully by Navy Day just in time before the Dalai Lama's visit to AP.The Chakra and any other underwater assets that we might task,could even be stationed in the S.China Sea to intercept and destroy any PLAN task forces attempting to enter the IOR.China might very well be planning to team up with the Paki Navy,using it to escort PLAN assets/merchantmen.Pak's sub fleet would be a very useful asset for China.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 23 Sep 2009 16:11

Phillip, a sub coming in nov will take atleast 6 -8 months for operational clearance.. these things require long term perspective and planning..which sadly is missing in India. The *edit* are masters in planning everything to the minutest detail. I was reading that in 62 war they even estimated the no of Indian POW's and built facilities accordingly. before hostilities will commence, their N subs will be in IO etc etc... indian statecraft, diplomacy etc is no match for the *edit*..and we are not even talking about military capabilities ( though military is also an instrument of statecraft). India should have a long term plan to build capabilities in a determined fashion. we cant even confront a enemy 1/7 our size !! have you ever been on manali leh highway.. it was identified as a strategic road...i dont know if you had a chance to travel on it..and you will understand what is poor infrastructure..

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 23 Sep 2009 16:28

further a complex platform needs to be integrated with the existing platforms, new war strategies needs to gamed , validated etc etc.. its many years before a platform like a sub realises its full potential..

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Sep 2009 18:58

True,but it is not the first time that a new sub or warship was inducted into operations due to a crisis.The sub would've been "commissioned" unlike the Arihant,with its weapon systems integrated.China might have greater numbers,but they cannot send the entire navy into the IOR,plus they lack bases and logistic infrastructure inthe IOR except for Pak.Their own subs have yet to operate in waters far from their home bases as thus far they've been used mainly in tracking US naval task forces and also patrolling waters around Japan and Korea.The huge Hainan facility is meant for the future carrier task forces and subs too,to dominate the S.China Sea and as home port for forays into the IOR.Their current gameplan would be a quick spat,chewing off a chunk of Indian territory hard to take back like the Kargil heights,before the UN etc. came in with intense pressure for two nuclear powers to stop fighting.Their weakest spot in their defences is their inability to protect their merchant fleet transiting the IOR and this is where the IN can strike very hard.

As I said before,they fear the Dalai Lama's hold over the Tibetan people in much the same way as the Pope holds sway over Catholics.His visit to Tawang will be a symbolic slap in the face of the mandarins of the Middle Kingdom and they will do they worst to prevent this from happening.

ParGha · Post by **ParGha** » 23 Sep 2009 19:09

Gagan wrote:The frank answer is NO. NO nation in the world is going to get into a war with another to protect the interests of another nation. Russia is an almost equal ally to both India and China, although its relations with china are tempered by the border war they had with the Chinese. China however remains a very important trading partner to Russia. The same aspect of trade binds the US's hands wrt china. Stale pronouncements apart, neither of the two nations (US and Russia) will really do much to curb the china should it decide to indulge in a military skirmish. The onerous task will be left to India, and GoI will have to bear the consequences of their actions and their crimes of ommission and commission in trying to sweep the chinese threat under the carpet all these years. The India soldier will again pay with his precious blood to halt the chinese.

The final conclusion is correct, but the reasoning process is totally wrong. Let us ignore why it is wrong with regards to the US and Russia. Just ask yourself, will you go to a nuclear war to protect Myanmar or Vietnam? For all we know, the border tensions in India may be a feint to tie India up in knots while PLA "teaches a lesson" to the Burmese generals for their successful offensive against the Chinese-related insurgent groups last month. The Burma business is a very unsavory one, best conducted "under the carpets"; as are many other such necessary realpolitik work. Quaint and naive as it may sound, when it comes to dealing with China (and not much else) I still trust the GoI more than I trust private India (alternately manipulated by free-trade, protectionist, foreign and jingoistic interests). Everybody knows 1962, but how many remember 1965, 1967, 1984 - thats is right, not many know because it was swept under the carpets and India generally came out the better for it.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 23 Sep 2009 19:49

Phillip, how are you so sure that EDIT N subs dont ply far away from home?? i can bet if they are indeed flaring up things on the border, their entire fleet ( a big %) will be in IOR.

How many ships can indians stop.. maybe the ships flying chinese flag..but how about ships flying other flags?

what is the ability of IN to put a large no of ships to sea in case of short/sharp conflict to enforce such a blockade... very few to the best of my knowledge?

for how long will you disrupt the shipping..even after the hostilites have ended and there is a ceasfire after the deed has been done..??

there is no substitute to having a well planned build of capabilities in all spheres to deter aggression in the first place itself..all measure suggested like blockade etc are non feasible in my opinion. not doable by IN with the current force levels or even in the next 5 - 8 years.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 23 Sep 2009 20:12

Who says that china will ever fight a nuclear war with India. They may be a lot of things, but stupidity is one characteristic I don't attribute to them. China has a lot of good things waiting for it in the next 20 years on, and they are currently on a roll.

I don't believe the chinese will fight with India where they are clearly at a disadvantage. For example I don't see them fighting a naval battle in the IOR. Any IN ship on the other side of the malacca will be targetted.

China's strength is superior border infrastructure in TIBET, and like in kargil, they will be quite willing to take their chances there. Add to this, the fact that India is unprepared right now to give a muh tod jawab to the chinese. Unfortunately that is what is needed to keep the Han from trying misadventure in the future, and give India peace on the northern borders for a few decades.

I am aware of the border skirmishes after 62. But those were china retreating after taking casualties and not pursuing the matter further. But in the 21st century, the PLA is a different fighting force, they are tech wise our equivalents, they have the advantage of superior numbers and safe supply lines this time.

With the recent rehtoric in the chinese government mouthpiece media, I will watch the chinese very carefully indeed.

Ranvijay · Post by **Ranvijay** » 23 Sep 2009 20:21

The Han class have yet to make significant operational forays outside of the territorial waters near the north sea fleet base at Qingdao. There was ONE recorded op patrol though where a HAN class skirted through Guam and went out to the coast of Japan and got tracked by every single ASW asset out there.

The talks of the diesel powered Song class SSK's floating up near CBG's is ridiculous, the only reason a SSK will surface near a CBG is to accept that it has been detected by the CBG's assets. FAS records of SSN patrols of the PLAN show that there have been an increase in the past few years but much of their fleet is just on paper. The Xia class have been in refit for much of their lifespan, the newer Jin class have never conducted an operational patrol but were supposed to be based at Hainan. Their SSBN's in fact have yet to conduct a patrol outside their regional waters!

suneels · Post by **suneels** » 23 Sep 2009 20:48

Gagan wrote:Who says that china will ever fight a nuclear war with India. They may be a lot of things, but stupidity is one characteristic I don't attribute to them. China has a lot of good things waiting for it in the next 20 years on, and they are currently on a roll.
With the recent rehtoric in the chinese government mouthpiece media, I will watch the chinese very carefully indeed.

Gentlemen,
I would be on full alert on or around the 20th of October, because the Chinese are also great believers in history.
We cannot allow another Krishna Menon / Nehru to lull us into "Sab theek Hai"

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 23 Sep 2009 20:50

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... 026890.cms

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 23 Sep 2009 21:37

manjgu wrote:Phillip, how are you so sure that EDIT N subs dont ply far away from home?? i can bet if they are indeed flaring up things on the border, their entire fleet ( a big %) will be in IOR.
...........

their ability to do so is extremely limited.

you don't just wake up one fine morning and go on an expedition 1000s of KM away against a more competent adversary.

also, even the newer PLAN boomers are quite noisy.

Masaru · Post by **Masaru** » 23 Sep 2009 23:38

China gets ready to display world class arsenal

The Chinese military is getting to exhibit some of its most sophisticated equipment after claiming to possess weapons systems that are comparable to the ones in the arsenals of developed western nations.

The decision to show off its military might comes along with an announcement that China has formulated a three-step development strategy, starting with for the upgrades in weapons systems. It will begin laying "a solid foundation by 2010" for implementing the plan, Minister of National Defense Liang Guanglie said.

Liang said that China's weapons capabilities are now a match to those of the western nations in terms of technological development. "This is an extraordinary achievements that speaks to the level of our military's modernization and the huge change in our country's technological strength," the minister said. The official media went further and said China was striving to create a weapon system that compares to those of the United States, Russia and European nations.

What is this solid foundation being talked about?

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 24 Sep 2009 06:21

rahul..the chinese subs may be noisy ( i am no expert of subs really) but they have numbers.. and pray with what are you going to hunt these numerous noisy subs?? and for how long in a short sharp conflict? how many subs / ASW assets can india put to sea on a notice of even 2-3 months??

also nobody is responding to the other questions raised by me..

Prasanth · Post by **Prasanth** » 24 Sep 2009 07:40

Ranvijay wrote:The Han class have yet to make significant operational forays outside of the territorial waters near the north sea fleet base at Qingdao. There was ONE recorded op patrol though where a HAN class skirted through Guam and went out to the coast of Japan and got tracked by every single ASW asset out there.

The talks of the diesel powered Song class SSK's floating up near CBG's is ridiculous, the only reason a SSK will surface near a CBG is to accept that it has been detected by the CBG's assets. FAS records of SSN patrols of the PLAN show that there have been an increase in the past few years but much of their fleet is just on paper. The Xia class have been in refit for much of their lifespan, the newer Jin class have never conducted an operational patrol but were supposed to be based at Hainan. Their SSBN's in fact have yet to conduct a patrol outside their regional waters!

As much as I would like to believe that all things Chinese are inferior, but reality tells me otherwise. Firstly, nothing is mentioned about the definition of ‘extended patrols’ from the FAS report, does it include routine exercises and training? How far to do you need to travel to constitute a patrol?. We need to look at this issue in a logical sense, they have the money to spend on their naval training, they have the equipment, and they have access to Russian training procedures, so what's preventing them from patroling?

Besides that, the second most powerful nuclear country Russia, conducted even less extended patrols than China? Any idea how many 'patrols' we conducted?
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/02/patrols.php

From the FAS article >

A request for the definition has been denied. It is assumed that a patrol in this case involves an extended voyage far enough from the submarine’s base to be different from a brief training exercise.

Another thing, how do we know their subs are noisy? How does it compare to our indigenous subs (if we have one)? Even their older non-nuke albeit upgraded attack subs came near a carrier group undetected. There were also news report that they detected our subs and force it to surface. I doubt they forced us to surface but if they are able to detect our subs and even the Americans cannot detect theirs, then we have a serious problem!

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/200 ... 539-3317r/

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news ... ia/419210/

Avinash R · Post by **Avinash R** » 24 Sep 2009 10:04

^ The report about indian submarines being forced to surface by chinese warships is fake.

China-India Naval Duel? Not Quite
Posted by Austin Ramzy Thursday, February 5, 2009 at 5:08 am
7 Comments • Trackback (7)

It had the makings of a pretty good story. Three Chinese warships patrolling against pirates in the Gulf of Aden--an unusually remote mission for the Chinese navy--were stalked by an Indian submarine. The Indian interloper is discovered, pursued and eventually forced to surface by the Chinese convoy. You have two rising powers squaring off "Hunt for Red October" style, with China proving that its navy can handle more than a gang of pirates.

There's one small problem though. The story is apparently fiction. While there are reports of some jostling between the two navies, which would be expected given China's high-profile mission far beyond its waters, the story of the submarine surfacing appears to have come from a faked news report. The original source was a piece in a Chinese publication called the Qingdao Chenbao. The Feb. 3 story was republished by some mainland web portals, and picked up the next day by the South China Morning Post. (The subscription-only story is here, complete with an editorial cartoon that says, "Captain Singh! I think they're on to us.") The Indian military denied the report.
...
I discussed the item earlier today with Andrei Chang who edits a military news publication called Kanwa Asian Defence. "I'm sure it's a fake news story," Chang says. He notes that some details of the piece don't make sense, including why exactly the Indian sub would be forced to surface. He says fake military stories have appeared in China both under his name and Jane's Defence News. Fake products "are not just shoes or clothes," he says. "It includes stories."

More Here

And this is how real "spooking" is done.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 24 Sep 2009 10:47

though our discussion on this forum does not amount to much.. its your word against mine... the naval chief put things in perspective on difference between IN and chinese navy as did the air chief. the point is our defence planning / thinking is too paki centric. If the indian statectraft had been upto mark, Pakistan should have been sorted out long ago. now we have 2 enemies lurking around.

even in a indo china conflict, what is the assurance that paki subs are not in the fray?? subs provide a deniability not afforded to other platforms... would indian navy stop a ship flying paki flag destined for china loaded with oil?

we have allowed a enemy 1/7 our size become a security nightmare and do not know how to handle a enemy much bigger than us.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 24 Sep 2009 11:13

good points prasanth...

if they have the subs and subs have the endurance to come into IOR then we will find them there ... we know a sukhoi 30 has a endurance of 6 hours.. but maybe it has never flown that long but if the ballon goes up then they can fly 6 hours...similar logic with chinese subs/ships...

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 24 Sep 2009 11:41

Mao the Second!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 845441.ece

Mao's grandson becomes youngest major-general in Chinese armyJane Macartney in Beijing

5Mao Xinyu
Chairman Mao’s grandson may be the very model of a modern major-general; possibly the youngest in all of the People’s Liberation Army.

Speaking recently in his capacity as a researcher at the Academy of Military Sciences, and as an expert in Mao Zedong Thought, Mao Xinyu was introduced as a major-general. It was the first signal that the only known surviving heir in the male line from the Great Helmsman may have been promoted from senior colonel. His elevation, reportedly in June, makes the scion of the Mao family the youngest major-general in the 2.5-million-strong PLA. He is 39.

The only child of the late Chairman’s second son, Mao Anqing, the younger Mao studied history at People’s University in Beijing before he was spotted in the late 1980s working as a student waiter at the newly opened Shangri-La hotel. He later entered the army, following in the footsteps of his mother, who also reached the rank of major-general.

Mao Xinyu serves as a deputy head of the academy’s research centre on war and military strategy. In a recent interview, he said he had fulfilled a dream. “I never thought I would be able to enter the military, even less did I dream that I could reach the rank of major-general.”

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Some media analysts have voiced doubts about his reported rise in rank. Latest photographs show him still wearing the insignia of a colonel on his uniform. But a journalist who reported on a recent speech by the younger Mao in his father’s native province of Hunan was corrected by an aide who insisted on an alteration to the story to identify Mao Xinyu as a major-general rather than as a colonel. That was the first clue to a possible promotion.

If true, Mao Xinyu would join the ranks of several other renowned major-generals who are not on active service — among them his mother, who was a prominent photographer. One of the best known today is the popular PLA singer Peng Liyuan, 47, the wife of Xi Jinping, the Politburo Standing Committee member and Vice-President. Others are the table tennis player Wang Tao, 42; China’s first man in space, Yang Liwei, 44; and Song Zuying, 43, who sang at the Olympics closing ceremony.

Mao Xinyu is also a member of an advisory body to parliament and the author of an anecdotal history book published in 2004 under the title Grandpa Mao Zedong. The youthful general takes after his grandfather both as a keen swimmer and also in his physique. In a recent interview, he told Chinese reporters: “I am fat, so I need to work out to lose some extra pounds. I go mountain climbing, swimming. My favorite sport is swimming. Besides that, I spend most of my time reading.”

He added: “These hobbies are all the same as my grandfather. But, of course, there’s one more even more important, and that’s eating braised pork!” Fatty pork belly, braised for hours, was the Chairman’s favourite dish.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 24 Sep 2009 11:50

With our known inferiority ion numbers vis-a-vis China,plus our inferior infrastructure in the himalayas,we must adopt an assymetric strategy if China embarks upon mischief.If it invades us in AP,etc.,we should shut down its maritime trade in the IOR where we have the advantage.As in '62,when we ,the GOI at that time was terrified of using our air force for fear of reprisals against Indian cities,should such mischief happen again from the Chinese side,we must not be afraid of using our air force AND navy to checkmate China this time round.The loss of a PLAN warship or merchantman would have a far greater significance and symbolism that a few miles of inhospitable Himalyan heights.Everyone knows that China cannot survive without its export trade.If India throttles it at sea,kaput China!

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 24 Sep 2009 12:20

the strategy is good on paper .... but not practical with the current force levels / capabilties. also phillip who will protect the indian shipping when the few indian naval ships go hunting for the huns? how many indian ships have the legs to guard the vast areas.. and for how long. the IN in its present shape or even projected force levels in next 4-5 years in not capable to undertake this task.

with their strategic oil reserves which will be bolstered prior to any conflict ( remember the chinese will have the luxury to decide the dates for the attack), i am not sure if it will make chinese go kaput? but may spell doom for us. the key to attaining some status as a superpwer is to have a robust and indigenous arms industry.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 24 Sep 2009 12:24

manjgu wrote:rahul..the chinese subs may be noisy ( i am no expert of subs really) but they have numbers.. {I may have a billion lee enfield rifles, it would still do me no good in a modern war. there is a minimum standard that needs to be crossed before quantity becomes a quality of its own. else it is simply lots of useless junk. major part of PLAN submarine fleet is junk.} and pray with what are you going to hunt these numerous noisy subs?? {pray why do I need to hunt these 'numerous' submarines when they simply don't have the ability to make it this far in the first place ?}and for how long in a short sharp conflict? how many subs / ASW assets can india put to sea on a notice of even 2-3 months?? {very low. India's ASW capability is a mess beyond self-protection of IN ships. the ships can look after themselves, that's about it. but again, the point remains that PLAN will find it very difficult to impossible to deploy subs in IOR in any considerable force. that is not going to change for quite sometime in the future.

If you disagree I would request you to put up a list of PLAN subs you think can go on combat patrol 1000's of km away before arguing this further. else it simply becomes your word vs mine with no one being the wiser}

also nobody is responding to the other questions raised by me.. {which are ?}

Prasanth wrote: As much as I would like to believe that all things Chinese are inferior, but reality tells me otherwise. {which reality ? I'm yet to see any backing info and you have already presented the conclusion !!} Firstly, nothing is mentioned about the definition of ‘extended patrols’ from the FAS report, does it include routine exercises and training? {'routine exercise' != 'training', don't use those terms interchangeably. secondly, FAS didn't call PLAN submarine patrols 'extended patrol'. patrol would be assumed to be 'combat patrol' i.e an exercise where at a minimum, the sub acts as an attack platform patrolling the waters of interest to its country, not just a submersible ship.} How far to do you need to travel to constitute a patrol?. We need to look at this issue in a logical sense, they have the money to spend on their naval training, they have the equipment, and they have access to Russian training procedures, so what's preventing them from patroling?
{unfortunately simple logic doesn't always work. if it did the arab armed forces would have been the best trained in the world, they satisfy all the conditions you mention and some have access to american and european training. institutional psyche etc count for a lot. }
Besides that, the second most powerful nuclear country Russia, conducted even less extended patrols than China? {why is that surprising ? russian military's funding woes are well known.}Any idea how many 'patrols' we conducted? {any sub that's not on refit goes on patrol at least once a year, sometimes more.}
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/02/patrols.php

From the FAS article >

Another thing, how do we know their subs are noisy? {the same way we 'know' that LA class are quiet, old russian subs are noisy and so on. IOW USN/intel reports made public. they called PLAN sub designs 'most noisy nuke subs ever made'. the Han also had serious problems with radiation and crew frequently became sick. you are free to disbelieve them. the SSBNs (both xia and jin) however don't need such reports to prove they are noisy. those shapes can be anything but quiet.} How does it compare to our indigenous subs (if we have one)? {if you don't even know that what are you doing giving expert-commentary on IN vs PLAN sub strengths ? } Even their older non-nuke albeit upgraded attack subs came near a carrier group undetected. There were also news report that they detected our subs and force it to surface. I doubt they forced us to surface but if they are able to detect our subs and even the Americans cannot detect theirs, then we have a serious problem! {again, you are simply ill-informed. that 'incident' was simply a case of wet dreams by the chinese editor}

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 24 Sep 2009 12:41

manjgu wrote:good points prasanth...

if they have the subs and subs have the endurance to come into IOR then we will find them there ... we know a sukhoi 30 has a endurance of 6 hours.. but maybe it has never flown that long but if the ballon goes up then they can fly 6 hours...similar logic with chinese subs/ships...

let's move into specifics. come into IOR through which route. which subs ?

FYI, a sukhoi in wartime can do a 6 hr flight or more AND perform well in combat (those two are not the same thing) because the sukhoi force trains for such long duration flights. sukhois have been known to fly directly from western India to A&N.

if you don't train for it, you sure as hell can't do it in combat, it's that simple. heck, you mayn't be able to do it in combat even if you train for it, there's no way a difficult mission can be pulled off without any prior training.
unless of course you are damn lucky. even then you will be successful say, once in a thousand attempts ?

the strategy is good on paper .... but not practical with the current force levels / capabilties. also phillip who will protect the indian shipping when the few indian naval ships go hunting for the huns? how many indian ships have the legs to guard the vast areas.. and for how long. the IN in its present shape or even projected force levels in next 4-5 years in not capable to undertake this task.

very much practical with current force levels/capabilities. the chinese frenzy about the string of pearls should tell you something. which of IN ships would have problems in range could you be specific ?

also, protect the shipping from what exactly ?

with their strategic oil reserves which will be bolstered prior to any conflict ( remember the chinese will have the luxury to decide the dates for the attack), i am not sure if it will make chinese go kaput? but may spell doom for us. the key to attaining some status as a superpwer is to have a robust and indigenous arms industry.

the objective is not making PRC go kaput but block it's maritime trade access to half the world. the threat to shipping alone will be quite serious. oil is not the only thing.

btw, quest of superpowerdom is passe, let's remain grounded in reality shall we ?