On what basis do you guys state that? The Hyde Act is not up for a vote!! It is the 123.
Besides, Andy Grotto did not get the memo from the US Amby to India? He clearly stated that both teh Hyde Act and the 123 stand, which is why the NSG does not have to place additional conditions - when there are these, why place more? All the concerns of all the NSG members - per him - are answered in the Hyde Act/123/IAEA.
There is no time to undo the Hyde Act in this US Congress as far as I can see - there are enough problems for just the 123 to pass, how can they take up both the 123 and then the Hyde Act?
Besides that FR and RU have both agreed not to deal with India until the US Congress passes the 123 and BOTH have subscribed to GNEP already!!!
On the flip side, even if RU + FR get $100 billion, the US will get access to the greater share of the Indian middle class - a few Trillion dollar market. What does Russia OR France have to compare to the US or Japan when it comes to selling consumer products? Also, on the "strategic" front, what has Russia done outside of selling arms - France to a much lesser extent. The US is getting a ton done on that front.
All said and done, the US seems to be in a better position as we post?
Consider a scenario, where the NSG Waiver does not have hard-coded conditions of no nuclear testing. In this case:
There are two constraints, which US Business and US Nuclear Industry could face in a post NSG Waiver-Phase.
1) The Freedom to do business with India like other countries. (123 Agreement)
2) A level playing field as other countries like France and Russia in the Indian Nuclear Market. (Hyde Act)
Once the NSG Waiver is there, there will be tremendous pressure on Congress to pass 123 Agreement, which then allows US Nuclear Industry to do business with India.
For US to be on a level playing field with France and Russia, either the NSG Waiver also needs to have a condition of "No nuclear testing, otherwise NSG countries will be required to terminate their bilateral agreements with India" just as in the Hyde Act. Only then would France and Russia have the same constraints as USA. Hyde Act is not directly applicable to Russia and France. Or if NSG does not have such a provision, and thereby Russia and France do not insist on such conditions in their bilateral agreements with India, then USA is at a disadvantage. To level the field, Congress would have to soften up the Hyde Act somewhat.
If NSG insists on the hard-coded condition, then India will probably walk out of the deal, and there is no deal.
As far as access to Indian market is concerned, Kamal Nath has his own ideas and I like his methods.