It has been a while, so gentle readers, I think the time for your self appointed rambler/commentator to post a ramble.
For those old timers (if any still left in the new improved BR
) familar with the old rambles of mine on the antics and activities of the various versions of Harried Rats (Hurriyat) and their principal sponsors the US and Pakistan one can start getting the
deja vu feeling soon.
During the Musharaff era, it was Geelani, Salahuddin combination that represented Pakistani interests. The Mirwaiz, Yasin, Lone and others were Uncle Sam's cat paw. Now it looks like the PDP is fully bougth over by the US. You can see that from the increasing pro independence stance.
With the advent of Bush to the White House, more so in the second term, there was a clear push to win over India to the US camp and the US started to back off from their support for the kashmiri cause. In any case, the PDP Congress government in the state was doing their bit to keep the azadi flame burining. The former by acts of commission and the latter by acts of ommission.
The descending spiral in pakistan coupled by the series of actions taken by the then NDA and the successor UPA governments to apply the lessons learnt from Kargil, by way of improved fencing, border control and targetted culling of terror heads put paid to hopes of Pakistan's ability to give a widespread push to the separtist agenda. Thankfully for the state, the PDP had to step down and with a Congess Chief Minister Azad, there were some steps taken to counter terror and repair done to the serious damage done to the intelligence gathering capability in the valley by the PDP.
But the blessing in disguise came with the Amarnath Land issue. The familiar failings of the congress to pander and appease to Muslim sensitivities in the valley came to roost on this issue. Pakistan saw a chance to make a comeback and in the weeks and months that followed the government twist and turn to appease, caused the long suffering Jammu region to revolt. It is too simplistic to paint that rising by Jammu as a communal reaction engineered by the BJP. The BJP had a presence there in the valley, no doubt, but bear in mind that the Congress had the most number of MLAs from that region. It is true that the BJP created and provided a platform for Jammuites to register their protest, but the resentment was genuine and it was the clearest indication in many decades of the the widespread support for J&K to be part of India. It clearly marked out who it was who was against being in India. The valley Muslims were clearly against being in India. While the majority of them want to be independent there was a minority of them who wanted to join Pakistan.
Both factions joined again as they could see that the Amarnath issue was bringing to the fore what they had so far successfully pushed to the background. Key issues such as delimitation and reallocation of seats, descrimination in terms of funds allocation, the vile theocratic interpretation of the dubious
kashmiriyat mumbo jumbo, and the genuine acceptance of the people of J&K other than those in the valley to be a part of India and share in its growth and prosperity. All these were beginning to find expression as the Jammu revolt on Amarnath gathered steam. The desperation of the valley based parties like NC, PDP and the Congress's need to appease, drove all of them to find a way out and diffuse. Sensing that the difference between them and the NC/Congress is not much, the PDP joined cause with the
azadi bandwagon. Being the only party from that camp, the valley has given them votes and seats in this election. Pakistan did try their best to broad base the support and make a putsch for an "intifada" like movement in the valley against India. But to their surprise they have found that there are no takers for them except for their paid agents like Geelani. The conclusion is that the majority in the valley who do not support being in India, support independence over integration with Pakistan.
Now what does this all mean? In the short term, the solution could be for an NC and Congress government to rule the state. If Omar is an improvement on his dad, he could push development and better governance so that the majority population in valley can see the difference in terms of infrastructure, lowered corruption and better security. If they have any sense, they will also see the writing on the wall and ensure that they have a base across all three regions. For this they have to undo the past. They need to ensure there is delimitation carried out and a better representation happens. If they are too scared that this will lead to BJP gaining at their expense, then it is idiocy.
They will have to couple the development agenda with a ruthless going after terror modules. Most modules today are pakistani and other origin. The local Mujahideen variety are playing second fiddle and providing logistic, financial and intelligence support. The attack modules are almost always pakistani. The policy of targetted removal of module heads should continue. There is a setback on the intelligence gathering capability locally thanks to the stupidity of the PDP. This can and should be set right. This will be one of the biggest challenges for the state as well as the Home Ministry in the the Center.
With the advent of Obama and clintonian SD in the offing, one is sure to see a rise in the profile of PDP and Mirwaiz faction. The USG will seek to appease Pakistan that it will impose equal-equal pressure on India to give pakistan some H&D points on kashmir. There will be paid articles of the Suzanne A Roy variety in our media on how India's progress to super powerdom is unnecassarily held back by kashmir. More lemons will sought to be sold in New Delhi by the lemon sellers from Foggy Bottom. Obama is desperate to get out of Iraq and get into Afghanistan. They want to get out of there after crippling the OBL machine and will be willing to reach a compromise with Afghani taleban who are willing to settle for a compromise. They can have their sharia paradise as long as they do not hurt Americans. Americans ideally would want a stable friendly regime in Kabul that has llimited control and get the hell out of there.
So from that perspective they need a pakistan. To make pakistan survive is increasingly difficult. The USG will attempt to give them some kind of deal in kashmir that pakistan can portray as a great victory over India. One can expect IB=LOC and a semi soverign dominion status for J&K state within Indian Union as the lemon that will be sold here in Delhi.
If this is indeed the agenda of the US and Pakistan, the question therefores is what can the GOI do to use this election verdict to thwart such designs? The ideal thing would be for the NC, Congress and the BJP to come together and form a government in J&K and deliver. That combination can and does have the potential to win over the recalcitrant valley while also cutting down on the undue influence of the valley region to the detriment of the other regions and the cause of the state's emotional integration with the rest of India.
But that is day dreaming. It calls for statesmanship that is absent in the congress and the BJP. Therefore the next best option is for the GOI to present this as the biggest vindication of the Indian position on Kashmir and proceed to deliver on the key expectations of the electorate - Security, good governance and Development. In that order.
For Security, the following should be done immediately
1. Revive the intelligence network and empower the security forces to go after the terror module heads
2. Continue to improve border monitoring, create capabilities for the forces to inflict unacceptable damage to pakistani army and terror camps - there is a need to provide capabilities that are non-intrusive, non-escalatory, punitive delivery mechanisms that can bring massive, sudden and unpredictable damage on terror camps.
3. Keep the pressure on Pakistan diplomatically and militarily, expecially on terror masters - some covert taking out of terror masters inside pakistan or POK would do well.
4. Go after and cut the terror funding inside the valley and slam cases on separatist leaders. Discredit them in public.
5. Finally and most importantly, apologise to the kashmiri pundit community, create safe and secure environment, procure and restore their properties, compensate them for their losses, provide loans to rehabilitate them. It is their most important duty.
For Good Governance the following should be done:
1. The political leadership should make a conscious effort to reach out and meet the requirements of the population. Omar's record as the MoS for External Affairs in the NDA and his presence and performance in Parliament suggests a clear mind and a better awareness of people's aspirations than his father. If he can set a clear example at the top a responsive administration can be had
2. Control Corruption. J&K receives huge sums of money and if the government can improve marginally on this front, there is likely to be a force multiplier effect in terms of development. Such is the level of money we are talking about. Simple things like improving PDS, improving citizen services and timely disbursements of pensions, permits and aid can be made to perform better and with lower levels of corruption. I am a realist and do not see complete elimination of corruption possible in J&K. It is not in any state in India, but the above can be done and has been done in other states.
3. Bring in transparency through a combination of e-governance, RTI compliance, local governments, and a responsive interaction system. The CM should lead the way and ensure that he travels to every district and monitors deveopment and greivance resolution. Examples from Gujarat can be used here. The CM there monitors key programmes and indicies personally, has a well trained group of beaurocrats who help him and personally monitors key indicies of every district on a daily basis. CBN had a similar system in AP when he was CM there.
In the area of Development the new government can do the following:
1. Improve physical connectivity between the regions and between the state and other parts of India. More rail, road and air links to different parts of the state.
2. Ensure that there is an equitable development of the regions.
3. Improve investment climate in the state, promote the Jammu region aggressively as a destination for industry, bring in a couple of high profile investments. A young articulate CM can actually help here. He has the ability to communicate clearly as we saw in the Parliamentary intervention as well as his stint in the NDA government.
4. Invest in education and rural sectors and activate and follow through on NREGS in J&K. This can help create a stake amongst the rural and young in the system and the state. Encourage and prepare J&K youth to compete for jobs and opportunities elsewhere in India. If they can see that they too can share the progress of India and live and work as every other Indian anwhere in India, that is going to create a stake in India for them like all of us have.
By staying focused on the above the GOI and GOJ&K can actually thwart the attempts of US and pakistan in J&K. This election has presented a good opportunity for making a decisive turn away from the seperatist agenda. If we get this right, then we can actually see a peaceful J&K and a turn around as it happened in Punjab in the not so distant past.
Will those in power and positions of influence see it that way? Will a young Omar be better than his father and grand father and create a name for himself and place in this nation's history? These are questions, answers to which will determine India's war on terror in J&K at least.
As usual a long ramble. Take it for what it is worth gentle readers.
ps. Moderators, old and new, the above may or may not meet your criteria of "quality". May I seek your indulgence to let other members decide that. Yours humbly etc etc. thanks!
. Rest of the family and most of friends didn't vote for NC, PDP or Congress. That's some consolation
