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NRao
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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby NRao » 19 Nov 2014 06:31

You had to let the cat out of the bag, eh?

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby Kashi » 19 Nov 2014 07:09

brar_w wrote:Getting close does not mean solving all long standing disputes over diplomatic, economic or other matters. It means that there is a common interest that aligns for both parties and they can build off of that. Thats all that means. A trend can be established given M2M relation over the past decade, the defense acquisition relation over the last decade and the projected growth on both these fronts over the next decade.


Getting close also means being mindful of others sensitivities..funny enough that does not seem to figure in the discourse here..maybe that would be trying too hard...

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby brar_w » 19 Nov 2014 07:20

Kashi wrote:
brar_w wrote:Getting close does not mean solving all long standing disputes over diplomatic, economic or other matters. It means that there is a common interest that aligns for both parties and they can build off of that. Thats all that means. A trend can be established given M2M relation over the past decade, the defense acquisition relation over the last decade and the projected growth on both these fronts over the next decade.


Getting close also means being mindful of others sensitivities..funny enough that does not seem to figure in the discourse here..maybe that would be trying too hard...


Others sensitivities? These are M2M ties we are talking about. No relationship in the geopolitical scheme of things is perfect especially not one that has quite a way to go. I see this only growing with Modi irrespective of who comes to power in the WH post Obama. No leader is dumb enough to deal with these issues through a personal, narrow view point. These are strategic issues dealt with at that level. India isn't going out and canceling helicopter deals, or transporter deals because a Diplomat was treated in the wrong way. Similarly, if India were to reciprocate the US wouldn't go out and say "we won't sell you GE engines". This isn't how complex geopolitical alliances work. You have service chiefs, diplomats and politicians on both sides and they decide based on a strategic vision and plan. Similarly, India isn't going after Russia because Russia is selling China an engine for its current and future stealth fighters, or that it has sold it its most sophisticated Ballistic Missile defense setup, or that it sold it a carrier etc etc etc. India will quietly reciprocate by hedging its own relationship with other alliances. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see where the Sino-Russian relationship is going, and what India's strategic options are to hedge against a future where Russia is invested in China to a much greater extent than it is invested in India.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby NRao » 19 Nov 2014 07:38

OT for this thread, but, if there is an agency in the US that supports India it is the Dept of Def. Kerry, who I had said would be a pain for India, has turned out to be a surprise. There will be bumps along the way - no two ways about it - but neither, for the foreseeable future, afford to go their own way. Leashes, 7th fleet, TSP, whatever, it really does not matter, the two are tied at the hips to some extent for the next 30-40 years at the very least.

And, in some areas, they work very, very closely.

No options.

On the flip side, even if there are some 200 projects with the Russians, one can see the offering made by them and the projects they consider important. There is a decline, There too it is just the way the cards have been dealt.

Anyways, back to the thread.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby JTull » 19 Nov 2014 15:41

NRao wrote:
By the way, Americans/Europeans have sold the pakis tanks, guns, fighter jets, ships, submarines that have been directly used by pakis against Indians in various wars already.


west has sold to Pakis and Pakis have lost every war (they have a diff story)

Russia has sold to China and

1) China has brought the US and India closer
2) Just out - Australia is about ready to sign up with India (just 5-10 years ago India was considered a threat to the Aussie "Indian Ocean for Peace" effort)
3) Japan has signed up with India and is actually build roads along the LCA in Arunachal P - whcih China asked a clarification for
4) China has leased parts of PoK for 50 years, is training Pakis, building infrastructure in a disputed area, but does not allow India to build up a disputed area!!!
4) China is just about ready to rename IO to SL Ocean - without going to war.

So ................................ As we were saying .......................


Oh, BTW, thsi just in:


Narendra Modi and Tony Abbott reveal new India-Australia military agreement

An Australian paper!!!!!!


The new India-Australia framework dovetails neatly with both countries tightening ties with both Japan and the United States, suggesting the informal resurrection of a "security quad" or "security diamond" of democratic powers that was previously dropped due to Chinese concerns.


Those Chinese "concerns" are no longer a concern, because of Russian items sold to china


#Strategy :wink:


Congress would always appease Chinese, Russian, American (etc) interests while Indian interests were always subservient to their own pockets.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby vishvak » 19 Nov 2014 23:16

Well, based on IAF MMRCA competition, Rafale seems to have made it. FGFA program will also have lessons learnt from Su-30MKI for our own requirements. Overall, MMRCA and FGFA are better for Indians than yet to be tested and never competed F-35. If we are to purchase F-35 only for the navy, then it is anyway better to fund more submarines (-hunter killers) or anti-submarine warfare platforms that will have much more affect right upto the Chinese coastline and probably beyond.

As far as Russian co-operation with China is concerned, I think we are not living in 1962 any more in the first place. We can not be playing for USA against China when USA is playing pakis against us -genocides, wars, terrorism, ethnic cleansing et all - ; but rather confronting China on our terms. By paying a few more $$, we can ignore USA altogether ( and therefore politicking, legalities, invasive checks, etc etc).

No point in reducing any cooperation with Russia just because of Russia cooperating with China. In fact, we should offer to buy more oil from Russia (and reduce dependence on Araps) as well, thereby hedging our options and offering more avenues to Russia, just as China is doing and probably Japan will too.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby NRao » 20 Nov 2014 00:15

Well, based on IAF MMRCA competition, Rafale seems to have made it.


We keep going in circles on this, don't we? That statement neglect the fact that the "MMRCA" has gone from an estimated $7 billion to $20+ billion. The problem is that the IAF has a Chief to bat for them, who is batting for the Indian paying public? Or are you saying the cost does not matter?

FGFA program will also have lessons learnt from Su-30MKI for our own requirements. Overall, MMRCA and FGFA are better for Indians than yet to be tested and never competed F-35.


OK.

So, the FGFA can rely on the MKI and the F-35 has nothing to lean on? (Please keep this to yourself, the US has had 3-4 full-fledged "stealth" efforts prior to the F-35, Russia has had .......... none.)

By saying the F-35 is "yet to be tested" you are saying that the MMRCA has been tested and so too the FGFA? And, then "never completed", the FGFA is not even been signed for and where is the Indian Rafale?

If we are to purchase F-35 only for the navy, then it is anyway better to fund more submarines (-hunter killers) or anti-submarine warfare platforms that will have much more affect right upto the Chinese coastline and probably beyond.


IN air crafts and subs are not a zero sum game. The F-35 - I would think - are being considered for a future air craft carrier along with perhaps the EMAL and other air crafts (from the US). And why not? It is after all only a consideration.

As far as Russian co-operation with China is concerned, I think we are not living in 1962 any more in the first place. We can not be playing for USA against China when USA is playing pakis against us -genocides, wars, terrorism, ethnic cleansing et all - ; but rather confronting China on our terms. By paying a few more $$, we can ignore USA altogether ( and therefore politicking, legalities, invasive checks, etc etc).


60s it is.

* Just check out the 4 point Indo-Pak framework
* India needs less of others than China needs Russia. Or, if it were to be a purely India vs. China, India should come out ahead - China needs the US for economy and Russia for defense
* Where are these "invasive checks", etc?
* In confronting China - there are no longer "us" and "them". That idea died with the previous Gov that lost.
* US phobia cannot be so overwhelming that one discount events in the very recent past


No point in reducing any cooperation with Russia just because of Russia cooperating with China. In fact, we should offer to buy more oil from Russia (and reduce dependence on Araps) as well, thereby hedging our options and offering more avenues to Russia, just as China is doing and probably Japan will too.


India has to do what is good for India. IF they means reducing cooperation with the Russians so be it. That said, I have no clue what India will do, which is why I suggested to wait till Putin departs from India.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby Viv S » 20 Nov 2014 00:47

vishvak wrote:Well, based on IAF MMRCA competition, Rafale seems to have made it. FGFA program will also have lessons learnt from Su-30MKI for our own requirements.

1. What did we 'learn' from the Su-30MKI?
2. The Russians designed the Su-30MKI, why didn't they 'learn' the same thing?
3. Assuming they 'learnt' the same thing, why didn't they incorporate it into the PAK FA?
4. If they did incorporate it on the PAK FA, just what is the remaining distinction between the PAK FA and the FGFA?
5. If there's no distinction, what lessons from the Su-30MKI do you propose to have incorporated into the FGFA?

Overall, MMRCA and FGFA are better for Indians than yet to be tested and never competed F-35. If we are to purchase F-35 only for the navy, then it is anyway better to fund more submarines (-hunter killers) or anti-submarine warfare platforms that will have much more affect right upto the Chinese coastline and probably beyond.

1. The MMRCA/Rafale will start deliveries no earlier than 2018 and continue production till 2026. The PLAAF will likely roll back its J-10 production and start J-20/31 induction by decade end. So our out-of-the-box solution to PLAAF's burgeoning numerical advantage, is to field an aircraft that costs more and is less capable in comparison.

2. If the F-35 is 'yet-to-be-tested', just how would you describe the FGFA? 'Yet-to-be-approved-for-development'?

As far as Russian co-operation with China is concerned, I think we are not living in 1962 any more in the first place.

Not living in 1962? You mean if tensions between China and India were to escalate tomorrow into a impending war like situation, the Russians would not take the same neutralist position they took in 1962? Would they expedite deliveries of military equipment, if so requested by the Indian govt?

We can not be playing for USA against China when USA is playing pakis against us -genocides, wars, terrorism, ethnic cleansing et all - ; but rather confronting China on our terms.

The US has lost more troops to Pak backed groups over the last six years than we have. Equations have changed. Keep up. Meanwhile, Russia just signed an agreement two days ago to send more RD-93 engines for the JF-17 and develop a upgraded version of it (which may also equip the J-31).

By paying a few more $$, we can ignore USA altogether ( and therefore politicking, legalities, invasive checks, etc etc).

China defence budget: $130 billion ('officially')
India defence budget: $33 billion

How many is a 'few more $$'?

No point in reducing any cooperation with Russia just because of Russia cooperating with China. In fact, we should offer to buy more oil from Russia (and reduce dependence on Araps) as well, thereby hedging our options and offering more avenues to Russia, just as China is doing and probably Japan will too.

Our response to the Russian-Chinese 'partnership' should be to try to support Russia economically and thus offering 'more avenues' to it?

(BTW the countries sanctioning Russian include Japan. And Japan's dispute with Russia over the Kuril Islands is still very much alive. IIRC last year Russian Su-27s intruded into Japanese territorial waters and the JASDF has to scramble fighters to intercept them.)

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby vishvak » 20 Nov 2014 01:11

Difficult to see how US can play pakis against India on one hand, then play India against China on the other. India has to get closer to USA because of China, thereby USA getting away scot free for its continuous support to pakis - all through cold war and beyond till now - even without being penalized for its support to pakiban actors. In any case, it will be very hard to find monies for F-35 when we can spend that much on AMCA. Better to get Russian tech for FGFA engines (- in JV - thereby removing risk of selling off engines to China). For a crucial tech like engines, we can't depend on one source alone IMHO, the more the better and including France.

About J-20/31, I do expect Russians to expedite military equipment. We do need to remind the Russians that the technology gap that FGFA may have is due to breakup of USSR in the first place, abetted by pakis for USA. If we can order the military equipment we need ASAP, we can do that too - we may have to spend some after a decade of do-nothing & spend nothing. Hopefully the govt will allocate enough funds for the Chinese front, (besides for LCA-Mk2, AMCA).

Incidentally, it is because of pakis and American jihad in Afghanistan that Americans are losing troops; and Americans know that too. Americans are still at it, aren't they? About sanctions on Russia, there are American oil companies are working in Russia. American sanctions haven't stopped Americans, so why should Japanese or Indians.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby NRao » 20 Nov 2014 02:44

Indian game plan:

JV with Russia.

If that does not work JV with Israel.

What if that does not work, JV with France.

Hmmm..... they have moved on, how about ................... jv with the US? No too much leash and scrotum stuff, so ............ let us see ........Sweden ..........Oh, yeah, Japan.

Nobody is agreeing, let a consortium led by a Chinese company ........ that should work. Chinese money, Tajikistan labor, ....... brain.


If these is one thing common to all threads; JV.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby Cosmo_R » 20 Nov 2014 03:03

NRao wrote:Indian game plan:

JV with Russia.

If that does not work JV with Israel.

What if that does not work, JV with France.

Hmmm..... they have moved on, how about ................... jv with the US? No too much leash and scrotum stuff, so ............ let us see ........Sweden ..........Oh, yeah, Japan.

Nobody is agreeing, let a consortium led by a Chinese company ........ that should work. Chinese money, Tajikistan labor, ....... brain.


If these is one thing common to all threads; JV.


You forgot ToT

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby Viv S » 20 Nov 2014 03:37

vishvak wrote:Difficult to see how US can play pakis against India on one hand, then play India against China on the other. India has to get closer to USA because of China, thereby USA getting away scot free for its continuous support to pakis - all through cold war and beyond till now - even without being penalized for its support to pakiban actors.

It was JLN & IG that originally strove for close ties with our socialist brethren in the USSR (in a bipolar world). But all that aside, is 'penalizing the US' that really your priority? The Chinese behemoth is emerging on our door, its military modernization being implemented at a breakneck pace, its army actively probing our defences on the LAC, its claims over Tawang are become louder, its Tibetan infrastructure is being heavily upgraded, its influence in POK is rising, and your unerring focus is still on the US.

In any case, it will be very hard to find monies for F-35 when we can spend that much on AMCA.

Where do you propose to find the monies for the Rafale?

Better to get Russian tech for FGFA engines (- in JV - thereby removing risk of selling off engines to China). For a crucial tech like engines, we can't depend on one source alone IMHO, the more the better and including France.

Whatever gave you the impression that we can stop the Russians from selling engines to China? Hell we can't even stop them from selling engines to Pakistan.

About J-20/31, I do expect Russians to expedite military equipment. We do need to remind the Russians that the technology gap that FGFA may have is due to breakup of USSR in the first place, abetted by pakis for USA. If we can order the military equipment we need ASAP, we can do that too - we may have to spend some after a decade of do-nothing & spend nothing. Hopefully the govt will allocate enough funds for the Chinese front, (besides for LCA-Mk2, AMCA).

The US had a technological lead over the Russians long before the breakup of the USSR. The Soviets were never able to catch up with the Americans when it came to defence spending (and R&D) and the Russians never will. The Chinese on the other hand are a totally different matter. Their defence expenditure is just a quarter of the US' for now (< 2% of the GDP BTW), but they get far more bang-for-the-buck. And in the next 15 years, they'll probably overtake the US in nominal terms as well.

Incidentally, it is because of pakis and American jihad in Afghanistan that Americans are losing troops; and Americans know that too. Americans are still at it, aren't they?

India's total foreign aid to Afghanistan exceeds $2 billion. We have a plethora of Indian companies & contractors working there. You really think a hard pullout by the US forces will not affect India's interests in Afghanistan? Because you may find your advice to be at odds with that given by the PM to the US president.

About sanctions on Russia, there are American oil companies are working in Russia. American sanctions haven't stopped Americans, so why should Japanese or Indians.

Shouldn't stop us at all. Invest by all means. As long as we don't delude ourselves into thinking we can create some strategic leverage over Russia. The highest possible amount we're likely to invest will still only be a small fraction of the Chinese investment in Russian commodities.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby NRao » 20 Nov 2014 03:59

About sanctions on Russia, there are American oil companies are working in Russia. American sanctions haven't stopped Americans, so why should Japanese or Indians


"Sanctions" are political in nature.

The AMerican companies are out there to make a profit - $$ - not political in nature.

India, Japan, Australia, etc all operate the very same way. Heck no company is willing to build a pipeline from CA to India (via A'stan + Pakistan), so ....... India is debating about *asking* a chinese company to lead the consortium.

China, to India, is both an adversary on the battlefield and a close partner in trade. So as India pulls on one (to get closer) (trade), she pushes on the other (to move further apart)(defense). This has to be orchestrated simultaneously.

Just that this type of a relationship is what is facing India and Russia. And, no one is really ready for it - because it is hard to believe that that is what will happen. But, it is normal.

And, a strategist, in making decisions, considers all this in real-time. There is a residual effect of a 7th fleet steaming into the BoB, US supplying the Pakis, US laws - all that exists (and *all that* was discussed in detail with the US - out there in open source), But *all that* is managed, selectively pushed to the background (as in the case of Australia and japan too).

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby member_28722 » 20 Nov 2014 04:05

NRao wrote:So, the FGFA can rely on the MKI and the F-35 has nothing to lean on? (Please keep this to yourself, the US has had 3-4 full-fledged "stealth" efforts prior to the F-35, Russia has had .......... none.)

Erm .. Mig 1.44 ... prototype flew in 2000.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby member_28722 » 20 Nov 2014 04:12

Viv S wrote:1. What did we 'learn' from the Su-30MKI?

Local manufacturing for 4th gen aircraft.

2. The Russians designed the Su-30MKI, why didn't they 'learn' the same thing?

Su-35BM. They has already learned the remaining things.

3. Assuming they 'learnt' the same thing, why didn't they incorporate it into the PAK FA?

PAKFA is LO .... Su30 is probably close to the other end.

4. If they did incorporate it on the PAK FA, just what is the remaining distinction between the PAK FA and the FGFA?

Same distinction that exists today between Su27 and Su30

1. The MMRCA/Rafale will start deliveries no earlier than 2018 and continue production till 2026. The PLAAF will likely roll back its J-10 production and start J-20/31 induction by decade end. So our out-of-the-box solution to PLAAF's burgeoning numerical advantage, is to field an aircraft that costs more and is less capable in comparison.

Provided the J31 is technologically equivalent to F35 and PLAAF is able to achieve serial production with 6 years of test flight (something which took the Yankees 12 years from test flight)

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby brar_w » 20 Nov 2014 05:25

Our response to the Russian-Chinese 'partnership' should be to try to support Russia economically and thus offering 'more avenues' to it?

(BTW the countries sanctioning Russian include Japan. And Japan's dispute with Russia over the Kuril Islands is still very much alive. IIRC last year Russian Su-27s intruded into Japanese territorial waters and the JASDF has to scramble fighters to intercept them.)


Its an absurd notion no doubt. US gives Pakistan aid so India should stay away from closer ties, yet Russia sells China its most sophisticated kit (S400, Su-35 negotiations, Long term energy alliance etc) and looks the other way when China blatantly knocks off its designs to leap frog having to do hard research and development - and India's response should be to up the cooperation with Russia and begin to compete with them, in an area where doing so would have MASSIVE economic ramifications. :)
Last edited by brar_w on 20 Nov 2014 07:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby Viv S » 20 Nov 2014 05:59

saurabh.mhapsekar wrote:Local manufacturing for 4th gen aircraft.

We already do that.

2. The Russians designed the Su-30MKI, why didn't they 'learn' the same thing?

Su-35BM. They has already learned the remaining things.

We didn't come out with our version of the Su-35S. So its not the 'same thing'.

PAKFA is LO .... Su30 is probably close to the other end.

Same distinction that exists today between Su27 and Su30

The Su-27 & Su-30 were both developed by the Russians. There's nothing in the Su-30MKI that we can 'learn' from (by virtue of license producing it) and incorporate in the FGFA, thus improving it from the baseline PAK FA.

Provided the J31 is technologically equivalent to F35 and PLAAF is able to achieve serial production with 6 years of test flight (something which took the Yankees 12 years from test flight)

The Yankees took 7 seven from the first prototype flight to put the F-35 into series production. And the J-31 just needs to be better than the Rafale, and with their numerical advantage, the regional balance of air power will become ridiculously lopsided.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby Karan M » 20 Nov 2014 08:44

>>>US gives Pakistan aid so India should stay away from closer ties, yet Russia sells China

There is a big difference there itself. Also, Russia does not patronize India with gratuitous commentary about its internal affairs, religious issues, its relations with Pakistan etc.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby Yagnasri » 20 Nov 2014 08:52

Further Russia has given us somethings which others will never, like Akulas and their help to our Arihanth. Yes there are serious problems even with Russia also. But not as much as with US and other gora nations.

In the end we are alone and better learn to live with that. We need our local efforts like LCA and AMCA to secure our nation and serious time. money and drive is needed in this direction.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby brar_w » 20 Nov 2014 08:57

You are only considering monetary benefits, No aid whatsoever is free. Like I said, Russia may sell to both India and China and that is best for it. As a consequence, China with its shameless copying, will save billions of dollars in R&D and "lessons learnt" through failures and would close the technology gap with adversaries in the region and with the US. I suppose you are OK with the fact that Russia sells to china the highest quality Air defense system, multi-role fighters, carriers, submarines and what not. That should be a worrying thing given the sheer amount of difference between the defense budget of china and India. China only has one external source to acquire high end military gear, and to do so at a rapid pace with what appears to be a fairly liberal policy when it comes to "looking away" when they copy the stuff. Over the years China's leverage over Russia has grown and this will continue to grow as Russia looks towards china and its demand for energy to fund its economic development given economic sanctions from the west. As a consequence China would be a far more valuable strategic partner to Russia than India. I am sure Russia would try to balance these two relationships for as long as possible but in the end the consequence of this relationship is that the deeper Sino_Russian relationship will have a considerable impact on India's economy and defense spending while whatever the US gives to pakistan has pretty much a negligible impact on India's overall defense policy specially given the fact that in that multi-nation relationship, India enjoys a far greater leverage than Pakistan both in the short term and in the long term. India's trade with the US, overall economic ties, the fact China is emerging as a strategic threat to the Pacific and IOR for the USN, and the overall influence of Indian_american diaspora on US politicians translates to a much stronger influence on what the US values as a long term partnership. Pakistan's leverage is fast decreasing combined with the fact that its one of the most hated nations in the US in public opinion.

As the US M2M ties with Pakistan reduce, that place has and will continue to be filled up by China, and through their rapid defense modernization, and thanks to the liberal copying of Russian aircraft, engines, electronics and what not they will continue to subsidize military equipment to china in order to hold a strong influence over it for strategic reasons. So as a result you will have china that is going to be producing Fighters for example at a global record pace..It will produce them, acquire them at the sort of pace with which they can rapidly modernize. It would be interesting to see the exact number of Su-35's they negotiate. I feel it would be rather small, around 50 or so..China will soon begin to use some of its advanced features and technologies into its own flanker clones that it produces at a lower price. Same will happen with the J-31, they will try their best to acquire, steal and develop propulsion and capability and the easiest way for them to do so is to reverse engineer or knock off things they recive from Russia. As a result within the next decade, not only will china modernize at an alarming pace (once they figure out a way to churn even half decent 5th gen aircraft) but would have the capability to modernize the Pakistani military at record pace as well. Thanks to its higher defense spending and with plenty of help from Russia, not only directly through sales but to continue to sell it stuff despite of fairly well documented copying and a general disregard for IP. With the new energy deals and with the Russian economy looking towards CHINA, I am sure china will seize the opportunity to get access to even more sensitive technology.

Folks in strategic circles would have surely seen this. Pakistan will continue to become more of a Chinese puppet then a US puppet especially since the US plans to disengage eventually from Afghanistan. China being a communist state will rapidly move in, fill the gap and would not hesitate to seize the strategic initiative through pretty much what was done in similar circumstances during the cold war. They will sell subsidized kit, and perhaps would even give away stuff. As has been happening for many years, India has seen this and has started to hedge both its defense spending as well as its M2M alliances and strategic partnerships with other non-traditional partners such as the US, Japan, Australia etc. There is security in that fact that outside of espionage there is no way that China can acquire high technology stuff, or learn more about the strategic ties between these nations and India. Expect the trend of increased M2M dialogue, exercises and acquisitions to only increase with Modi and beyond. There are things that happen in strategic circles which bring many nations together, even those that have traditionally had little common ground from a M2M perspective. You will see the nations that value the status quo as far as regional interest is concerned continue to align informally and deepen military and economic ties to try to maintain their influence. Ultimately, its not about "punishing Russia for helping China leapfrog" or about "Punishing the US for aiding Pakistan"..Both these examples are that of a nation acting for its own interest. Similarly, India hedging against a time where China through its deeper economic ties can yield greater influence on Russia, isn't a PUNISHMENT to Russia, but doing something what is in India's best interest.
Last edited by brar_w on 20 Nov 2014 09:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby NRao » 20 Nov 2014 09:26

Russia does not patronize India with gratuitous commentary about its internal affairs, religious issues


In their own they all do, even Russia. Just that they do not do it as openly. Way back Russia gave JLN a lecture on how India should use metal for arms and not for lampposts. JLN (actually the pre-independence Congress) had borrowed heavily from the Soviets, but not completely and there was the rub. But India has taken a scolding from them over the years.

US and other gora nations


errrr.....

Russia is a European, gora, christian nation.


Point being that every nation acts in her own interest. Russia selling stuff to China is not an anti-Indian act, although it does impact India negatively.

Give it some time and see what happens. As India rises we should see Russian behavior change - which should be expected. Normal stuff.

And if India leans towards what Russia perceives as anti-Russian nations, then the reaction should be even more acute.

Akula, help for Arihant, etc are not gifts. India has paid for them in funds and will be expected to pay in other ways too. Which ways we may or may not know. But Russia, the nation, will always act in her own interest. Like others. And, you can now see India under Modi doing precisely the same.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby Austin » 20 Nov 2014 10:36

Its a monkeys game with the whole idea of furthering US Interest by creating FUD.

Back in 70's and 80's when India was perceived as enemy and closer to NAM/SU , US played the same FUD game against India by supporting the pakistanis ecnomically and militarily to engage and contain India and played it well.

China was a sleepy town then so US found no threat to itself , till Henry Kissenger/Nixon found China to be useful anti-Soviet allay and befriended China to contain the SU.

Today things have changed , China has the 2nd largest economy in the World and is the largest owner of US treasuries/bond and with rise of Chinese Economy rises its military and its perceived threat to US Domination in the world.

The same FUD game goes on , US now wants to use India to contain China and use Pakistan to play the same game against us. Again not in the interest of India or China or Pakistan but to further its own Goal.

India being dhoti clad SDRE knows this too well as it has been the victim of same game in the past ....It would stay away from this or that alliance that US is trying to put India into and has joined the BRICS and next year joining SCO ....again to protect its own interest.

India would engage with US as it does with any other nation and with US and China being India 1st and 2nd largest trading partner but wont fall into US trap of playing monkeys game to further US National interest at its own cost.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby deejay » 20 Nov 2014 13:32

The fact that Russia is selling to China its best forces us to buy from them and do equal - equal, no? That we cannot control Russia and their decisions is understood but the argument that Russia is at-least helping us and staying away from 'thought control' over Indians is not a reason for joy. They are practically (controlling) forcing our defence needs by supplying almost everything to our adversary in the East and now wish to do it to the west.

I do not think an Indo - US alignment of trust can ever be established. So yes, we are on our own here. The Chinese will of course have more respect for the Rafale than the Su 30 MKI (IMO). Simply because they have equivalents (or so they believe) in Russian systems.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby member_20317 » 20 Nov 2014 14:02

deejay ji,

if there was as much an element of force involved then Indians could have abjured the option of further cooperation in other areas. Instead the cooperation grew in almost all areas except where the Russians were in no position to provide an option. It is true that Russians take an inordinate/unjustified pride in their own equipment which is nagging at times and even dangerous for our people. It is also true that for a truly independent status we need to diversify our supplies. To that extent even american supplies should be welcome. Though uropeons would be somewhat better in that regard.

But if supplies to the opponent are the only criteria then somebody will have to explain how many Indian soldiers were lost to american supplied weapons and why and why was it tolerated?

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby deejay » 20 Nov 2014 14:43

^^^ Well I am not justifying either Ruski eqpt or Khan weapons. My view is very simple - We are being played, whether we look West or North. That one side is better (argued somewhere above) is a false premise.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby Austin » 20 Nov 2014 14:51

deejay wrote:I do not think an Indo - US alignment of trust can ever be established. So yes, we are on our own here. The Chinese will of course have more respect for the Rafale than the Su 30 MKI (IMO). Simply because they have equivalents (or so they believe) in Russian systems.


No Alignment would work really , the best option is to work independent without baggage's from any either side. Thats the policy we pursed during Cold War and that what we would do now.

This whole push from US to push India into some sort of anti-China alliance wont work at all ...in long run its detrimental to our interest in the region.

Its good to solve all problem on our own and through bilateral means without external interference .......If you recollect Hillary Clinton when she came to India was pushing for anti-China alliance and we gently told her NO :)

We are too BIG and too Independent as a Nation to play the Monkey Game

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby Cosmo_R » 20 Nov 2014 15:26

Let us avoid the impulse of viewing everything through the "are they with us or against us?" lens. It has to be through a long term strategic view. Militarily, we do need to have like-minded partners. Closer defense relations with Japan, Oz and the US does not mean we go to war over Taiwan. PRC gave nukes to pakis and proffers its is not anti-India.

We don't have to get involved in all of unkil's schemes and stupid wars. At the same time, we should not give PRC a veto over whom we can align with in our own self interest.

Modi is doing just that: Oz is the 'centerpiece', Japan and US are pillars. Oz has good relations with PRC. He is creating a defacto 'concert of democracies' without rubbing it into PRC. As the centerpiece, Oz is the one that's going to feel the brunt of PRC pressure.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby vishvak » 20 Nov 2014 20:50

The Chinese gained numbers in any which way from producing Mig-21s 15 years ago.

At this point of time, we are to build squadrons of LCA-Mk1 soon, and then we will build LCA-Mk2. We are even testing LCA for navy. We are manufacturing Su-30MKI to an extent, and also (if/when French deal pans out for MMRCA) Rafale. FGFA will make our capabilities to the next level. I think this is a much better situation as of now, than 15 years ago. Buying star wars fighter will not make the it any better than situation in Telecom sector where we use imported wireless kits, wireless routers and gateways but not manufacture anything here(someone mentioned this), and be poodle of western countries(mentioned again already. Actually there is nothing to brag about being poodle of USA, like shameless pakis are doing). I think someone even put a question that what will be outcome of F-35 coming from Indian ocean versus FGFA, for which there is no answer. In fact, there is no answer to F-35 so do we avoid manufacturing in a planned manner? I think it is obviously better to go on with FGFA therefore, and reach a stage where we can reduce cost for FGFA (like Su-30MKI due to local manufacturing-a lesson well learnt), and make FGFA in volume to reduce cost even further. That is probably the only way to scale up numbers of what we want. Besides, we can buy more oil from Russia too( but that is just like being the Chinese anyway). We are actually buying over the counter for our own fighter jets shouldn't be a penalty, so it is better to ramp up the numbers per year and as we have to. When we want more monies, we can dig more oil from Bombay high oil well for a few years and save $$ in times of crisis.

Another way to focus on Chinese front is to finish off pakis completely, and thereby reduce chances of 2-front war if we have to.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby NRao » 20 Nov 2014 21:42

No use comparing anything with the "FGFA".

The MiGs were accepted pretty much as-is.

The MKI was an Indian idea, but built by the Russians - that was progress from the MiG experience.

Now the FGFA goes - IMHO - way beyond all that. Based on what we know - the IAF is asking for something beyond the PAK-FA itself. Long back I had said: AMCA >> FGFA >> PAK-FA. That still stands. My feel is that the IAF sees the FGFA project as something too separate from the PAK-FA and would like the two be de-linked as much as possible (which is why the IAF was unhappy with HALs decision to reduce work share). IAF does not want to repeat what happened with earlier experiences - that is clear. And rightfully so. The FGFA project has to rely very little on the Russians. Only then can the next step of the AMCA be pretty close to being a complete Indian effort.

And, I do not think the Russians are willing to do that. From their point of view they want India to be somewhat reliant on them - and rightfully so - to be expected. This tussle is what has to be resolved.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby Viv S » 20 Nov 2014 22:02

The writing is on the wall. Yet some of us choose to close our eyes to it.

__________________________

China, Russia step up ties to face U.S. pivot

Atul Aneja
BEIJING, November 20, 2014

China and Russia are swiftly reinforcing their military ties to counter the “Asia Pivot” of the United States, widely seen as a military doctrine in the Asia-Pacific to contain Beijing’s growing international stature.

Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, during a visit to the Chinese capital, minced no words on Wednesday in his assertion that Beijing and Moscow have “expressed concern about the U.S. attempts to strengthen its military and political influence in the Asia-Pacific region”.

Under the framework of its “Asia Pivot,” Washington is strengthening its military presence along China’s periphery through fresh deployments chiefly in Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines.

Joint exercise

Russia and China will hold joint military exercises in the Pacific Ocean next year, closer to the Chinese mainland and in the Mediterranean Sea, Mr. Shoigu said.

Analysts say that the manoeuvres in the Mediterranean will reinforce Beijing and Moscow’s common understanding not to permit U.S.-led “regime change” in countries such as Syria and Lebanon.

Mr. Shoigu also asserted in Beijing, the headquarters of the Shanghai Cooperative Organisation (SCO), that Russia and China visualise establishing a collective security force in the region.

Both countries, emerging as the core defenders of Eurasia, are acutely concerned about the escalating threat of terrorism radiating from Afghanistan, which is likely to experience a military power vacuum following the bulk troop withdrawal of NATO forces from Kabul.

Beijing and Moscow see counter-terrorism cooperation by the SCO countries, which include Central Asia, as part of the solution.

In an address last week, former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev warned that growing tensions over Ukraine are threatening a new Cold War between Russia and the West.

Russia on Wednesday also came out in stout defence of China in its handling of the situation in Hong Kong. Russian media quoted Deputy Defence Minister, Anatoly Antonov as saying: “We have taken note of the events that recently took place in Hong Kong and the two Ministers acknowledged that not a single country can feel insured against colour revolutions.”

The Hindu
Last edited by Viv S on 21 Nov 2014 01:14, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby member_28722 » 20 Nov 2014 23:37

Viv S wrote:We already do that.

Before Su30MKI?

We didn't come out with our version of the Su-35S. So its not the 'same thing'.

Super Sukhoi upgrade features are also spin offs of Su35 and PAKFA. 'Our learnings' will be be applied on 'our fighters'. Are you claiming the LCA manufacturing has received zero benefits from experiences with Su30?

The Su-27 & Su-30 were both developed by the Russians. There's nothing in the Su-30MKI that we can 'learn' from (by virtue of license producing it) and incorporate in the FGFA, thus improving it from the baseline PAK FA.

If proof of learning is satisfied only by by producing a full fighter based on Flankers, then you would be correct. Fortunately, there is a lot for an industry to learn from manufacturing a world-class jet. 'Our learnings' will be visible in our fighter programs.

The Yankees took 7 seven from the first prototype flight to put the F-35 into series production. And the J-31 just needs to be better than the Rafale, and with their numerical advantage, the regional balance of air power will become ridiculously lopsided.

Completely incorrect
1. First test flight of F-35 -- 2006
2. First test flight of production variant -- 2012 (more importantly this has 5000 hours of tests for just F35. The Chinese haven't crossed 1000 in 2 years for both J20 and J31 combined)
3. Limited rate of production -- 2012 - 2018
4. Full batch production -- 2018
One does not do Limited production for a fully ready aircraft. If you are predicting the PLAAF will have J31/J20 in hundreds then China needs to be at 2018 same time as Yanks. You are essentially assuming that they will do everything in 1/2 the time the LM took.
And just being better than Rafale is not something which can be done as easily as writing it

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby NRao » 21 Nov 2014 00:26

Viv S wrote:The writing is on the wall. Yet some of us choose to close our eyes to it.

__________________________

China, Russia step up ties to face U.S. pivot

The Hindu



Filed under "Time will tell. :) "

Nov 20, 2014 :: Pakistan, Russia Sign 'Milestone' Military Cooperation Pact

Pakistan and Russia signed a "milestone" military cooperation pact today aimed at bringing peace and stability to the region, Islamabad's defence ministry said.

The agreement was signed during a visit by Russian Defence Minister General Sergei Shoigu with Pakistani defence minister Khawaja Asif.

"The signing of the military cooperation agreement between the two significant countries of the region is a milestone," Asif said after the signing ceremony in a ministry statement.

"Both sides will translate this relationship in tangible terms and further strengthen military to military relations," Asif added.

The pair expressed hope that the agreement will pave the way for exchange of views and information, as well as issues related to strengthening of mutual trust and international security, counter-terrorist and arms control activities.
Related

"The first ever visit of the defence minister from Russian Federation has come at a very critical juncture when US-led NATO forces are drawing down from Afghanistan by the end of 2014," the statement said.

"Apart from promoting bilateral defence relations, the visit will enable both countries to join hands in bringing peace and stability in the region," it added.

Russia has long been the largest supplier of arms to Pakistan's nuclear-armed arch rival India, which is the world's top arms buyer.

Russia's ITAR-TASS news agency reported in June that the country had lifted its embargo on arms supplies to Pakistan and was holding talks on supplying Islamabad with combat helicopters.

Shoigu, who is accompanied by a 41-member high level delegation, commended the skill and expertise of Pakistani armed forces in fighting the war against terrorism, the Pakistani defence ministry said.

"The world community not only praises but wants to do business with Pakistan now," it quoted Shoigu as saying.

During his stay, the Russian defence minister will also hold in-depth talks with Pakistani authorities as well as meeting Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

"The Prime Minister stressed upon the need to increase bilateral trade between the two countries which currently stands at $542 million and does not correspond to their trade potential," the prime minister's office said in a statement after Shoigu-Sharif meeting.

Sharif invited Russian companies to invest in Pakistan, particularly in the energy sector and benefit from the business-friendly policies of the government, it added.

"Pakistan is keen to enhance its multi-dimensional relations with Moscow, including defence," Sharif said.



"The world community not only praises but wants to do business with Pakistan now," it quoted Shoigu as saying.


Must be rather desperate times.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby Viv S » 21 Nov 2014 00:42

saurabh.mhapsekar wrote:Before Su30MKI?

Su-30MKI plus Tejas. There's no improvement over the existing setup that the Rafale confers, that can't be obtained far cheaper through consultancy on contract.

Super Sukhoi upgrade features are also spin offs of Su35 and PAKFA. 'Our learnings' will be be applied on 'our fighters'. Are you claiming the LCA manufacturing has received zero benefits from experiences with Su30?

Whatever modifications/upgrades/applications pertain to the Su-35/PAK FA were implemented by the Russians.

Can you tell me what features of the Tejas are a spin-off from the Su-30MKI?

If proof of learning is satisfied only by by producing a full fighter based on Flankers, then you would be correct. Fortunately, there is a lot for an industry to learn from manufacturing a world-class jet. 'Our learnings' will be visible in our fighter programs.

The MiG-21 was a world class jet when we start manufacturing it. The Su-30MKI was equally world class when its manufacturing commenced. Same goes for the MiG-27 and Jaguar. None of them revolutionized our industry. License manufacture of the Rafale is simply business-as-usual.

Completely incorrect
1. First test flight of F-35 -- 2006
2. First test flight of production variant -- 2012 (more importantly this has 5000 hours of tests for just F35. The Chinese haven't crossed 1000 in 2 years for both J20 and J31 combined)
3. Limited rate of production -- 2012 - 2018
4. Full batch production -- 2018


I'm afraid you're wrong. The X-35 first flew in 2000 (that's the proper analogue to the 31001). And the aircraft went into limited production in 2007, not in 2012. It was the fifth LRIP batch that was contracted in 2012.

One does not do Limited production for a fully ready aircraft. If you are predicting the PLAAF will have J31/J20 in hundreds then China needs to be at 2018 same time as Yanks. You are essentially assuming that they will do everything in 1/2 the time the LM took.

The Chinese don't need to have a 'fully ready aircraft' to put it into production. The PAK FA for example, goes into production in 2016 with a preliminary order of 60 units.

And just being better than Rafale is not something which can be done as easily as writing it

Its not being done as easily as writing it. Its being driven by investments of millions of man-hours and billions of dollars, by an industry that has already achieved critical mass in almost all aspects of fighter aircraft development.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby NRao » 21 Nov 2014 01:02


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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby NRao » 21 Nov 2014 01:18

Very interesting article:

The India-Australia Security and Defence Relationship: Developments, Constraints and Prospects

What is interesting is:

Much of this article is based on confidential interviews conducted by the author in 2013 with
serving and retired military officers, diplomats, government officials, corporate executives and
analysts in India and Australia.


And it was published in this journal in 2104!!!!

So, this relationship was spawned under the previous admin!!! Interesting.

And, here are the expectations:

In coming years, India is likely to become one of Australia‟s most important partners in the region. This article explores how the security and defence relationship has developed in recent times. It discusses challenges in the relationship before exploring potential a reas for enhanced security and defence cooperation. It argues that if Australia wishes to be successful in its objectives of promoting greater cooperation with India, it will need to move in a consistent and sustained manner with a time horizon considerably longer than it is generally used to. In some cases, Australia may also need to move past any immediate expectations of the reciprocity that would be expected in developing security partnerships with most countries

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby vishvak » 21 Nov 2014 01:19

As OT, the Chinese are investing since a decade in Australia - from real estate to farms. Same for USA - the Chinese have bought a lot of companies in USA.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby member_28722 » 21 Nov 2014 03:10

Viv S wrote:Su-30MKI plus Tejas. There's no improvement over the existing setup that the Rafale confers, that can't be obtained far cheaper through consultancy on contract.

And you determined this how?

Can you tell me what features of the Tejas are a spin-off from the Su-30MKI?

The experience of manufacturing components of an aircraft is useful to other aircraft being manufactured by the same complex. This is not complex to comprehend.

The MiG-21 was a world class jet when we start manufacturing it. The Su-30MKI was equally world class when its manufacturing commenced. Same goes for the MiG-27 and Jaguar. None of them revolutionized our industry. License manufacture of the Rafale is simply business-as-usual.

1. There is no point comparing pre 90s manufacture with post 90s. Our abilities and economics will be very different. The intent behind Rafale is different (straight from horse's mouth) compared to previous deals.
2. Su30MKI liscense produce is quite different from Mig27 since a lot of those parts are being fully made in India and Sukhoi is being customized for Indian weapons (which didn't exist earlier)
3. How much customization was done to Mig27/Jag/Mig21? The Su30MKI was customized for us and most of its custom components are made in India. It allowed us to have the intent to go at design phase with Russians for FGFA. Things are progressing in both Russian and western tech absorption.

I'm afraid you're wrong. The X-35 first flew in 2000 (that's the proper analogue to the 31001). And the aircraft went into limited production in 2007, not in 2012. It was the fifth LRIP batch that was contracted in 2012.

If J31 = X35 then pray tell me how J31 will go into 100s production within 6/8 years when it took the Yanks 18 years to achieve same. If F35 wasn't 'fully' ready in 2007, nor will it be 'fully ready' till 2018.
You can check the Wiki procurement table for F35 timeline.

The Chinese don't need to have a 'fully ready aircraft' to put it into production. The PAK FA for example, goes into production in 2016 with a preliminary order of 60 units.

Considering that J31 is one of the maiden 5th gen aircraft, one would want it to be able to do at least all the basic 5th gen capabilities and fire weapons. If you are assuming that PLAAF will induct jets not meeting even those parameters then why are you so worried?
The Russians had 5th gen tech birds flying as back as 2000 and post UAC creation the experience of that tech was used in PAKFA development also. Besides the Russian aviation industry is based on real development from world war eras, not copying. So I would not call PAKFA partially ready in the same breath as a partially ready J31

Its not being done as easily as writing it. Its being driven by investments of millions of man-hours and billions of dollars, by an industry that has already achieved critical mass in almost all aspects of fighter aircraft development.

Even better aviation industry also spent decades perfecting the Rafale. Its better than any 4th gen PLAAF jet and will easily equal a partially ready J31.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby member_28722 » 21 Nov 2014 03:15

brar_w wrote:The F-35/JSF was designed from the outset to be a joint program. That adds time. They reached a commonality threshold below which they would not go, as a result even though the three PDR's and CDR's were spread out over years, essentially the earliest reviews could not be completed until a large portion of the other reviews were mature so as to not have to go back and re-adjust in the future. That adds time. Moreover, the USAF and the USMC are expeditionary forces that would be replacing directly, very capable and advanced multi role fighters that they have invested a lot to acquire and develop into strike assets that they currently are. As a result these services demanded capability upfront that was way more than traditional programs such as the F-22 or F-16 demanded from them at induction. The amount of software development and integration of sensors required at Block 3A,I a& F is SO comprehensive partly because the aircrafts being replaced by these inductions are capable of doing a varying set of mission and due to basing and forward deployment (logistical footprint) concerns one cannot slowly develop the multi-role capability without having to retain large portions of legacy aircraft for those missions.

It would be quite astonishing if the J-31 as a program operated under similar constraints. They would most likely do a soft-rollout with basic Air to Air capability and take their good old time to develop it into a multi-role fighter while building numerical strength through acquisition and concurrent production. Much like what the USAF did with the F-22. In my opinion with the J-20 they would tackle the A2AD strike and maritime strike mission while they would look at the J-31 to be the mainstay air-air assets if they do indeed go in for a two 5th gen fighter air-force.

I agree with you
1. But being only 1/2 a generation ahead and that to without proper capabilities the J31 is not a massive threat for us since and we retain the qualitative edge on 4.5 gen as both Rafale and Super Sukhoi are better than J10s or J16s.
2. We will have a better 5th gen in FGFA joining probably a couple of years after the soft J31 rollout. By the time the Chinese iron out their issues we should have FGFA in good numbers and hopefully the AMCA close to production. This is hardly a doom gloom scenario for IAF.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby brar_w » 21 Nov 2014 03:18

If J31 = X35 then pray tell me how J31 will go into 100s production within 6/8 years when it took the Yanks 18 years to achieve same.


Not saying the Chinese are going to do this, but the F-35 is a bad example to use. To add to my previous post, the X-35 program was to test parameters that were more than 2X the number that were to be tested for a normal CTOL aircraft. Secondly, both the PDR's and CDR's were longer in duration for the same reasons mentioned above. Despite this, serial production began 7 years after the prototype flew. The ability to crank out 100's of aircrafts is limited by development milestones that themselves are cumbersome because the capability demanded is complex because it is replacing aircrafts that due a varying mission set. On the F-22A they were able to crank out the capability faster and spirally develop the program. Lastly, the volume production orders are limited because the C version has a lot of testing to do before it begins to be ordered in large numbers. The USN is only ordering it at a few a year not because there is no space for production but because they do not need to order them so rapidly because the ITT force is going to take a few years still to mature the Charlie. If the JPO was tasked with a vanilla Air to Air Capability much like the F-22 (Electronic Warfare, and a2g capability came much later including the expansion of the CNI) the F-35 would have been operational by now with 100's in service. This is why the F-35 is a bad example to compare the J-31 to given that China is likely to be pragmatic given their capability and would not place such large expectations (mission span) from the J-31 at the beginning if EVER. What you have to deal with is initially at least a stealthy fighter with internal weapons with an AESA and some sort of IR coverage. They will optimize it for Air to Air as sort of a lower end, slower J-20 that they will use as a penetrative strike aircraft with some sort of super cruise capability. What they lack in terms of sophistication (compared to the F-22, F-35, FGFA) they will make up through huge volumes. This is why a 20 Billion investment on the rafale is a wrong allocation of resources especially when the same fighter can be obtained for far less by watering down TOT to a few essential areas and using a standard offset. At 12 billion it begins to look quite nice, especially if you can bring license production cost down further. Otherwise a 120 odd rafales are not going to change the strategic picture significantly given how much of th budget they are likely to swallow.

I agree with you
1. But being only 1/2 a generation ahead and that to without proper capabilities the J31 is not a massive threat for us since and we retain the qualitative edge on 4.5 gen as both Rafale and Super Sukhoi are better than J10s or J16s.
2. We will have a better 5th gen in FGFA joining probably a couple of years after the soft J31 rollout. By the time the Chinese iron out their issues we should have FGFA in good numbers and hopefully the AMCA close to production. This is hardly a doom gloom scenario for IAF.


It is imho, because the threat isn't just from the J-31, its from a combination of J-31's, J-20's at the upper end, Flanker clones and the emerging Su-35's and the Super Flanker Clone that will naturally follow from it on the lower end. Given the fact that they spend so much more then India on National defense, it would not be unreasonable to assume that they would maintain a very healthy lead over the IAF when it comes to local production, both of the J20, and J-31 over the Rafale and FGFA and with the lower end flanker clones, and Super Flanker clones (Su-35 knockoffs) in addition to knocking off Anti-Access denial systems like the S-400 and its clones that will logically follow.

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Re: Indian Military Aviation- September 29 2013

Postby member_28722 » 21 Nov 2014 05:20

brar_w wrote:It is imho, because the threat isn't just from the J-31, its from a combination of J-31's, J-20's at the upper end, Flanker clones and the emerging Su-35's and the Super Flanker Clone that will naturally follow from it on the lower end. Given the fact that they spend so much more then India on National defense, it would not be unreasonable to assume that they would maintain a very healthy lead over the IAF when it comes to local production, both of the J20, and J-31 over the Rafale and FGFA and with the lower end flanker clones, and Super Flanker clones (Su-35 knockoffs) in addition to knocking off Anti-Access denial systems like the S-400 and its clones that will logically follow.

We will have also 500+ 4.5 gen (600+ if LCA Mk2 happens on time), FGFA and hopefully AMCA in test flights by the time J31 is mature enough for Tibet airfields.


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