Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

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svinayak
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 22 Mar 2009 00:05

ramana wrote:
BTW for all others some old fashioned ideas on geopolitics. Indinas need to understand geo-politics as thats one area they are not familiar with.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geopolitics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_the_Heartland

Mackinder's world

Research Project

And try to read Brezinski's Grand Chessboard- a plan of US domination in the 21 century.


The People’s Republic of China, situated at the gates of Mackinder’s “pivot region” or Heartland, and with access to the sea, possesses sufficient human and natural resources to make a bid for Eurasian mastery sometime in this new century. Russia, though currently undergoing a new time of troubles, still occupies the Heartland and possesses vast human and natural resources, as well as thousands of nuclear weapons. The nations of Western, Central and Eastern Europe are moving toward economic unity and, perhaps, political unity, with Germany playing a leading role. Whatever specific power constellation emerges, however, U.S. foreign policy will continue to be shaped by Mackinder’s geopolitical vision of a Eurasian-based world hegemon.


Image


Image

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 22 Mar 2009 08:56

Here is my take on the extension of the "heartland" theory. I would see it as a pair of axes, as shown in the following map. The Atlanteans (US+UK+allies) are basically trying to push North East and the Steppenwolf (Russia+PRC+allies) are trying to push South West. However I think we have to modify the "heartland" into the more vital economic "heartland" of Northern Indian Ocean. This is where the economic engine and centre of garvity of the world is moving towards - middle eastern oil, South Asian knowledge economy (production and consumption of knowledge), a more or less stable food production, stable climate and possibly robust against potential adverse climate changes.

Image

The countries on the border around the axis - are under the dynamic of this pull, and the game is going on in winning over slowly and expanding the axis into the zone of the opponent. This can however lead to certain problems as in ordinary field battles, such as stabilizing or collapsing a "bulge". The confrontation point is steadily moving down along the frontal axis from North West to the South East - from the time of the world wars (the southern tip of this contest in WWII was ultimately an extension of the battle for survival in Europe), through proxy wars in the near East and Middle East, and now directly into the current central contact point in AFG.

India can use the general trend of confrontations moving down along this axis and push towards the east from the Indian Ocean. This is a flanking movement to outpace PRC.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 22 Mar 2009 11:34

Where did you get this. Is it yours?

Can you combine yours with the heartland theory and come up with a combined one.

There are some interesting point and we can see the current dynamics

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 22 Mar 2009 19:27

It was my take. Here is a new version of this.

Image

I am inclined to take the Indian Ocean rim as the new heartland. Mineral and energy reosurces of Africa, SE Asia, and the Gulf, and the potential for knowledge economy based on the subcontinent and possibly Oz, and the food production capacities of Oz, India, SE Asia. A warm tropical Ocean touching all these crucial points is of added significance.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 22 Mar 2009 21:37

I am inclined to take the Indian Ocean rim as the new heartland. Mineral and energy reosurces of Africa, SE Asia, and the Gulf, and the potential for knowledge economy based on the subcontinent and possibly Oz, and the food production capacities of Oz, India, SE Asia. A warm tropincal Ocean touching all these crucial points is of added significance.

Indian Ocean rim is not yet the new heartland.
The major land resources - oil/minerals are still in Siberia, Central asia, middle east etc.

Water access is to only middle east but the rest of the locations are land locked.
This is the reason for the great shift and force towards the heartland.

India is on the path towards this shift and has to control the access and influence over the heartland.

India is also collateral damage during any confrontation and shift.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Atri » 22 Mar 2009 21:49

Brihaspatiji,

You have not considered Climate change. Arctic ice-cap is melting. When it does in next 20-25 years, the Arctic ocean will be available for Russian navigation and Russia will dominate Arctic Ocean. They have already started building ports on their coastline facing arctic ocean.

This will pull the axis towards north-pole too.. The pity is that even if ice-cap melts, it will be available for 6 months of summer only.. For other six months, there will be ice, I guess.

That will be very big factor in favour of Russia and hence the Steppenwolf...

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 23 Mar 2009 01:37

Acharyaji,
I think, the Atlanteans have realized after several attempts that appropriation of the natural resources in the lair of the Steppenwolf can be quite hazardous. Europe got severely burnt. On the otherhand, Steppenwolf has realized that it cannot sustain its momentum entirely on its own - its attempts at primitive capitalist accumulation and modernization without Atlantean participation has failed. USSR has crashed, and PRC abandoned almost all basic Communist anti-Atlantean positions. Thus the "heartland" in NE Asia is in itself perhaps no longer that valuable a determinant for global power.

It seems holding the frontal axis is crucial - and the heartland is shifting towards the Northern Indian Ocean.

Chironji,

I did consider climate angle. But missed the Arctic angle. They are already I think fighting over dividing up the Arctic for natural resources. But with the rate and prognosis of the actual climate changes possible (for example arctic/Greenland ice sheet melting although initially freeing up the northern passages could actually stop the salt-pump and stop the Gulf-stream conveyor thereby actually start another ice-age again that freezes the passages up). A new or onset of ice-age will reduce sea-levels - increasing subcontinental and Indian Ocean rim land mass massively - prime real estate and productive lands in the tropics.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 23 Mar 2009 01:59

brihaspati wrote:Acharyaji, Thus the "heartland" in NE Asia is in itself perhaps no longer that valuable a determinant for global power.

It seems holding the frontal axis is crucial - and the heartland is shifting towards the Northern Indian Ocean.



Heartland has not changed. You need to give a more researched answer.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 23 Mar 2009 03:04

Acharyaji,
I would concede only that it has led to a stalemate. The Steppenwolf controls the "old heartland" now. But it has not led to its overall dominance of global politics and power equations. Both PRC and Russia needed Atlanteans to make their available resources more functional, and their earlier models of state power and global politics had to be abandoned (Cold War, proxy wars, classical Marxist/Communist models of government).

The Atlanteans on the other hand tried twice during the earlier half of 20th century but failed to overrun the "old heartland". But this did not automatically lead to their retreat or collapse. In fact they could successfully use the ruptures within Steppenwolf to overcome Steppenwolf gains by the 80's (transition in PRC economic strategy in 1979, bogging down of USSR in AFG using the Mujaheeds).

At the moment both sides are engaged in a stalemate, and are highly interdependent in each other. Thus the old heartland in itself is no longer sufficient for global domination. Although it is possible that both sides still do not realize this fully. The Atlanteans are trying to bring the dynamic in their favour by moving through their AFG -CAR-Kazakh forward bulge. But already it is reaching the stalemate stage. The contest for superiority has to be found in the future in the more south-eastern zone.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 23 Mar 2009 03:55

brihaspati wrote:
I would concede only that it has led to a stalemate. The Steppenwolf controls the "old heartland" now. But it has not led to its overall dominance of global politics and power equations.


Controlling the heartland is to deny the other side total domination. That is all. It does not mean than Steppenwolf will be dominant.

Atlanteans have failed in their economic model for global domination with the global financial crisis.

The Atlanteans are trying to bring the dynamic in their favour by moving through their AFG -CAR-Kazakh forward bulge. But already it is reaching the stalemate stage. The contest for superiority has to be found in the future in the more south-eastern zone.


The central Asia was always be the fault line for the heartland. That is only way to breach the heartland. All other areas are blocked by mountain ranges and natural barriers.
War on Terror and alliance with Taliban are moves to breach this fault line towards the heartland.

The question is why do you consider India as a forward base for the Atlanteans.
Atlanteans are supporting Pakistan/Taliban to breach central asia.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 23 Mar 2009 04:11

Well, I showed India as "potential" forward base. If the Atlanteans can use India, they sit on East-West ocean corridor south of the inaccessible barriers of Himalayas. The South East Asian flank, that I have proposed India takes up to outsmart PRC, could also be used by the Atlanteans for their own thrust in moving the frontal axis once they stalemate in the central sector now.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 23 Mar 2009 04:27

brihaspati wrote:Well, I showed India as "potential" forward base. If the Atlanteans can use India, they sit on East-West ocean corridor south of the inaccessible barriers of Himalayas. The South East Asian flank, that I have proposed India takes up to outsmart PRC, could also be used by the Atlanteans for their own thrust in moving the frontal axis once they stalemate in the central sector now.


There wont be stalemate.
If they breach India they have the full flank from Afghanistan to South East Asia with no opposition in Indian Ocean or the littoral states in the IO rim.
SE is not important since it does not give direct access to the heartland.

They need the control of the ocean to the central asia.
If Iran provides that corridor then they will start a war in Gulf to deny access to everybody.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 23 Mar 2009 04:55

Acharyaji,
my concern long ago was that (before Obama's inauguration) that the new admin will bluster a lot (not to be seen weaker than Bush) but its primary concern will be to stabilize the Afghan military front rather than advance. And it is this stability in military policy that will be the beginning of the unravelling of the NATO strategy in AFG.

The Talebjabis are using mobile warfare. Only way US could balance was by employing superior weaponry, starving enclosed areas, and be mobile themselves. Once they try to stabilize they become sitting ducks in an unfamiliar and basically "hostile" territory. So my calculation is in spite of patching up with Iran, Obama admin has succumbed to those among the Atlanteans - probably the UK group - who favour a TSP ruled Saudi-Sunni-Pakistani axis as the best antidote to the Steppenwolf and keep the mysterious and doubtful-for-the-future Hindu-India at bay.

I know that most yet do not see the SE as a crucial future arena. But just by looking at physical maps, it becomes obvious why that flank - the land and sea corridor will become important in the advance or retreat of the Steppenwolf. Any power that controls this sector controls Steppenwolfs remaining connvenient access to the Indian Ocean and its rim.

India on the other hand pushing here draws PRC out back to its own nerve centres.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 23 Mar 2009 05:06

brihaspati wrote:Acharyaji,
my concern long ago was that (before Obama's inauguration) that the new admin will bluster a lot (not to be seen weaker than Bush) but its primary concern will be to stabilize the Afghan military front rather than advance. And it is this stability in military policy that will be the beginning of the unravelling of the NATO strategy in AFG.


Administration will come and go but the policies remain the same.
So my calculation is in spite of patching up with Iran, Obama admin has succumbed to those among the Atlanteans - probably the UK group - who favour a TSP ruled Saudi-Sunni-Pakistani axis as the best antidote to the Steppenwolf and keep the mysterious and doubtful-for-the-future Hindu-India at bay.

This will not change. But India is still the balancer. Your analysis is missing this.
India has to ensure that it eliminates the alternative choices.
I know that most yet do not see the SE as a crucial future arena. But just by looking at physical maps, it becomes obvious why that flank - the land and sea corridor will become important in the advance or retreat of the Steppenwolf. Any power that controls this sector controls Steppenwolfs remaining connvenient access to the Indian Ocean and its rim.

Too many barriers to the north.

India on the other hand pushing here draws PRC out back to its own nerve centres.

It is good region for India to invite the dragon for war.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 23 Mar 2009 05:19

Acharyaji,
My estimate is that the Tommy within the Atlantean has not yet recovered from licking its wounds of 47. They will cut their own ear if necessary to try to show why it was so stupid of Indians to chase them out. This faction together with certain European factions will always keep India "shady" in their calculations. And this is a fundamental weakness of the Atlantean calculation. I did not include India specifically because I feel this hesitation in Atlantean policy about India.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Keshav » 23 Mar 2009 05:28

Let me ask a noob question real quick to Acharya and Brihapati -

When you say control, what type of control are you referring to?

Control of resources? Political control? Economic control? Economic and Political control through the control of resources?

Physical control?

And what type of resources are you talking about?

Man power for proxy wars? Knowledge based economy? Manufacturing?

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby shiv » 23 Mar 2009 07:02

Pretty pictures but why is it that this strategic thought seems to ignore the possibility of the existence of a conscious force (such as the Atlantaeans or Steppenwolf) in Africa and India. This is post-colonial-cold war thinking in which the existence of huge entities on earth were ignored because of their historic irrelevance over the colonial period.

What would be the effect of the "Kumaraeans" (Indians) and "Obongobongos" of Africa?

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby vadivelu » 23 Mar 2009 07:16

brihaspati wrote:It was my take. Here is a new version of this.




Admirable scenario you have conjured up – my plaudits for a bold attempt to go where few have.

However you fail in two arenas- the first of which is Russia. It is a struggling nation. Read this
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/22/world/europe/22believers.html?ref=world


The next flaw in your ointment is India. India is a risk averse nation.

Perhaps my best analogy is BRF itself. I have been following this Forum for more than a decade. The same old tired moderators perennially predicting the imminent demise of Pukistan. They tried to rope in one of the more belligerent of their kind - and he ends up wrist slapping like a Jesuit nun. Indians avoid risk - the ones who take it on go overseas and suffer the consequences in the Middle East.

Look at the BRF makeup - their strength is in their links with the Indian military establishment. The same old guys have been pontificating here for decades. The impact globally has been minimal. Mental masturbation at its worst.

You have been a breath of fresh air here in your new avatar.

A risk averse India and a geriatric Russia render your model invalid.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby shiv » 23 Mar 2009 07:24

vadivelu wrote:
Perhaps my best analogy is BRF itself. I have been following this Forum for more than a decade. The same old tired moderators perennially predicting the imminent demise of Pukistan. They tried to rope in one of the more belligerent of their kind - and he ends up wrist slapping like a Jesuit nun. Indians avoid risk - the ones who take it on go overseas and suffer the consequences in the Middle East.

Look at the BRF makeup - their strength is in their links with the Indian military establishment. The same old guys have been pontificating here for decades. The impact globally has been minimal. Mental masturbation at its worst.


This is an interesting post that bitch-slaps moderators for no fault of their own. That suggests something to me about what you are thinking. Sounds like a decades old chip on the shoulder to me.... It's always the age that refines and matures the resentment.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 23 Mar 2009 07:34

brihaspati wrote:Acharyaji,
My estimate is that the Tommy within the Atlantean has not yet recovered from licking its wounds of 47. They will cut their own ear if necessary to try to show why it was so stupid of Indians to chase them out. This faction together with certain European factions will always keep India "shady" in their calculations. And this is a fundamental weakness of the Atlantean calculation. I did not include India specifically because I feel this hesitation in Atlantean policy about India.


Tommy has weaknesses. Exploit it and you have the answer.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 23 Mar 2009 08:08

Keshavji, will try to reply to your questions in detail later! Not much time left this night to do justice to your post.

Shiv wrote
Pretty pictures but why is it that this strategic thought seems to ignore the possibility of the existence of a conscious force (such as the Atlantaeans or Steppenwolf) in Africa and India. This is post-colonial-cold war thinking in which the existence of huge entities on earth were ignored because of their historic irrelevance over the colonial period.
What would be the effect of the "Kumaraeans" (Indians) and "Obongobongos" of Africa?


The "conscious force" is just an abstraction for me representing the complex equilibrium of historical-socio-economic forces appearing to act almost like a conscious entity on certain issues. However, I had been toying with the idea of showing a "long distance" future version of the same map where - the frontal axis becomes almost equatorial . Some distance in the future, the south of Africa, and Indians will perhaps become main pivots. The "Dharmics" and the "Simbans" do have a role to play. But I can see a long period of struggle between the two proselytizing branches of the Abrahamic, and ethnic animosities to play out over the "Simban" continent in addition to the Atlantean-Steppenwolf contest over its resources.

The projection here is approximately for the next 30 years. I am not denying at all the longer term emergence of these other pivots.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby RayC » 23 Mar 2009 08:26

vadivelu wrote:

The next flaw in your ointment is India. India is a risk averse nation.

Perhaps my best analogy is BRF itself. I have been following this Forum for more than a decade. The same old tired moderators perennially predicting the imminent demise of Pukistan. They tried to rope in one of the more belligerent of their kind - and he ends up wrist slapping like a Jesuit nun. Indians avoid risk - the ones who take it on go overseas and suffer the consequences in the Middle East.

Look at the BRF makeup - their strength is in their links with the Indian military establishment. The same old guys have been pontificating here for decades. The impact globally has been minimal. Mental masturbation at its worst.

You have been a breath of fresh air here in your new avatar.

A risk averse India and a geriatric Russia render your model invalid.


You seem to have upset people with your post.

Therefore, may I interject?

I think you are guilty of terminological inexactitude.

Where is the connection with the BRF and the military establishment? BRF is neither a part of the military establishment nor has it any active military members on its panel. If some people find the military worth their while to 'admire', I am afraid, one can do very little about it! Likewise, many here admire the IAS and IPS, but what of it?

It is not the same 'old tired Moderators'. It appears that while you have lurking for decades, you have failed to notice the change. There is a brand new set!

In so far as the prediction of the demise of Pakistan, it is a national hobby and one can't blame anyone. It is those who have faced Pakistan one to one are aware of the realities of existence, the remainder are permitted to ride the favourite hobby horse! Why grudge them that pleasure? If you feel that they have, as you so quaintly put it, 'mentally masturbated', do permit me to reply in the same coin (though more politely than you) - it appears you are riding a drug induced high!

Should you find the BRF discomfiting, I am sure you could find new pastures to your liking.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 23 Mar 2009 08:49

Vadivelu wrote
A risk averse India and a geriatric Russia render your model invalid.

I have some direct contacts with expat Russian communities, some my students. I can see over the last 5 years a new resurgence in their thought process. They are looking back to Mother Russia as way forward, even if they are not immediately going back to their fatherland. I can see a similar process of radicalization and "nationalism" as in expat Indic. I observed them closely for over a decade - you can take the Russian from Russia, but almost never the Russia from the Russian.

I agree to your general observation about the "Indian". But is it a consistent feature? Indians do seem to take risk in large numbers even if not the entire society, from time to time. From the Sindhis before Qasim, or Shahyias, or Mewar, the Sangams, and many others, right up to the modern freedom frighters against the British. I personally know of families ruined. Entire family lines destroyed. I have very reliable eyewitnesses to farmers watching stolidly all their grain and cattle seized and house razed to the ground or sold off for "non-cooperation". I understand your reasons and you are justified but I feel sad. In generalizing we dishonour the countless sacrifices of Indians who risked all for their beliefs or commitments. My apologies to their souls on behalf of all of us.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby vadivelu » 23 Mar 2009 09:13

RayC wrote:[

You seem to have upset people with your post.



The provocation was intentional.

However I am equally upset you take umbrage at my response since I have always considered you a voice of reason here in BRF.

I can post elsewhere - but do you want sycophants or raucous voices of dissent?

At least two of the BRF moderators/contributors have ties with Indian defense procurement. I am in the same field. I know.

Reverting back to to the topic - my contention of an Indian risk aversal. is it genetic?

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 23 Mar 2009 09:23

vadivelu, I dont know whats bugging you. From your fisrt post you appeared to have a chip on your shoulder. Sort of bearing a huge burden over the ages. Youre on a mission to aggravate and provoke people. We dont care what you claim to be but we do care that you dont aggravate the members. To date I havent seen anything worthwhile from you that we should entertain your attacks. Age seesm to have not given you any wisdom.

I think you already have a couple of warnings. One more and it will lead to self ban.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby RayC » 23 Mar 2009 09:36

vadivelu wrote:
RayC wrote:[

You seem to have upset people with your post.



The provocation was intentional.

However I am equally upset you take umbrage at my response since I have always considered you a voice of reason here in BRF.

I can post elsewhere - but do you want sycophants or raucous voices of dissent?

At least two of the BRF moderators/contributors have ties with Indian defense procurement. I am in the same field. I know.

Reverting back to to the topic - my contention of an Indian risk aversal. is it genetic?



I do my task as a Moderator and it has nothing personal.

It is just that you were upset with the BRF.

As one of the Chiefs told me that we have to work with the same organisation, same folks and the same equipment. We must do the best we can with it. We can't change anything to suit our desire.

Valuable words!

Can one change the BRF?

Change takes time and perseverance.

We are at it, but it will take time.

We are all good men and women here - the Moderators and the posters.

Let us coexist!

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby vadivelu » 23 Mar 2009 09:42

ramana wrote:vadivelu, I dont know whats bugging you. From your fisrt post you appeared to have a chip on your shoulder. Sort of bearing a huge burden over the ages. Youre on a mission to aggravate and provoke people. We dont care what you claim to be but we do care that you dont aggravate the members. To date I havent seen anything worthwhile from you that we should entertain your attacks. Age seesm to have not given you any wisdom.

I think you already have a couple of warnings. One more and it will lead to self ban.


I am not aware of any warnings and I have been provocative but not obnoxious.

Age and wisdom are an overrated Indian axiom.

What would you consider worthwhile from me ?

can you point to a specific attack from me?

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 23 Mar 2009 09:53

brihaspati wrote:
Vadivelu wrote
A risk averse India and a geriatric Russia render your model invalid.

I have some direct contacts with expat Russian communities, some my students. I can see over the last 5 years a new resurgence in their thought process. They are looking back to Mother Russia as way forward, even if they are not immediately going back to their fatherland. I can see a similar process of radicalization and "nationalism" as in expat Indic. I observed them closely for over a decade - you can take the Russian from Russia, but almost never the Russia from the Russian.

NYtimes has an article on global migration back to mother land. They talk about Russians from Latin america migrating back o Russia after few generations.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby shiv » 23 Mar 2009 10:21

vadivelu wrote:Age and wisdom are an overrated Indian axiom.


But not when it applies to you or the US - as it would appear from another off topic post you made in which a specific number of years in the US was purported to have a special effect. Perhaps your indian-ness was showing in that post, with a value being put on age.

viewtopic.php?p=638952#p638952

vadivelu wrote:can you point to a specific attack from me?


The following text, which you admit is a deliberate provocation is specifically an attack against moderators on here. Attacking the group and claiming that no individual has been criticised would be a lame excuse.

The same old tired moderators perennially predicting the imminent demise of Pukistan. They tried to rope in one of the more belligerent of their kind - and he ends up wrist slapping like a Jesuit nun.



vadivelu wrote:What would you consider worthwhile from me ?


Thiru Vadivelu You appear to me to be:
a) erudite
b) wise

But you seek to use your erudition and wisdom in confrontation and resent any restriction of your erudition.

All you need to do is stick to a given topic and make posts that do not seek to irritate, criticise or lampoon someone as a sub text as you post your undoubtedly valuable take on what is being discussed.

I do not mean to hurt you but what you have done so far, despite your erudition borders on trolling. But the biggest trolls are often the most intelligent and erudite people. We lose some. But some stay on and become really useful assets.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby vadivelu » 23 Mar 2009 10:27

Brihaspati

Your graphic was remarkable.

Based on the Indian response to Mumbai provocation, India should be classified as a pacifist nation.

India will expend considerable monies to procure rearmaments and build a military infrastructure to be acknowledged as a regional military power. But never exercise its arsenal.

Pakistan however is a failed state imploding - and the globe is apprehensive of and hoping to prevent such a catastrophe.

Should this not factor into the equation?

Blackmail.

We see it here against me.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby vadivelu » 23 Mar 2009 11:29

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/EBOOKS/pfs.pdf

how long does it take a state to fail?

The article is 2 years old.

Since then Mumbai.

IPL moved out.

A failed state? Or wishful thinking?

Does India have a strategy for the future or is it premised on a certainty that the Pakistani state will fail.
As predicted with unwavering logic.

RayC
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby RayC » 23 Mar 2009 13:33

vadivelu wrote:http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/EBOOKS/pfs.pdf

how long does it take a state to fail?

The article is 2 years old.

Since then Mumbai.

IPL moved out.

A failed state? Or wishful thinking?

Does India have a strategy for the future or is it premised on a certainty that the Pakistani state will fail.
As predicted with unwavering logic.


I agree that India is not Shining and India is Not Incredible either, unless the word is taken in a negative way.

Why confine oneself to Mumbai or even IPL (not that the IPL moving out is something earth shaking)!

India is full of negative aspects of Statehood. It is corrupt, casteists, communal, sectarian, regional etc etc. Its leadership consists of a foreign import, a meek and whining PM, a slim customer in the Home Ministry, some Court Jesters and fodder eaters, some prize thugs, some murderers, some petty thieves and maginificent frauds and some glowing under the aura of dynastic hand me downs!

Notwithstanding, I take solace that inspite of all this, we are still accepted in the comity of nations.

Pakistan is not worth the comparison!

shiv
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby shiv » 23 Mar 2009 17:25

vadivelu wrote:http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/EBOOKS/pfs.pdf

how long does it take a state to fail?


That depends on your definition of a failed state. The above link has my definition of a failed state. Kindly define what you think is a failed state or a successful state for that matter.

NRao
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby NRao » 23 Mar 2009 17:48

vadivelu wrote:
Admirable scenario you have conjured up – my plaudits for a bold attempt to go where few have.

............................................................

The next flaw in your ointment is India. India is a risk averse nation.

..............................................

A risk averse India and a geriatric Russia render your model invalid.


You are right that India is averse to risk. However, that is true only to some extent. During the creation of BD, India was held back from rearranging the western segment too. In a prior war too there is ample evidence that India was forced to return land that was won in a just war.

That is ALL in the past. Now those very nations that made India negotiate are in the very soup that India has been in and not allowed to take risks when India wanted to. ALL of them made a living and writing history books on how they took risks and did well. Today they are bogged down and not willing to take the risks they ought to take to bring an end to this menace.

Pakistan is not failing because of a prop, not because it is/has not failed. And, it is being prop-ed because those propping it THINK that Pakistan is part of the solution (the latest being that Kiyani helped with the current solution, while Mullin(sp?) had a diff story).

In the 40s India would have to physically take over to solve the problem. In the 70s the problem needed a large "nudge". Today India needs to do nothing. Pakistan, IF not for PM Brown of the UK and Billions from the US, would be a failed state - IF it not already, which I think it is.

The frustration of this failure not happening earlier will always be there and shared by many all over.
Last edited by NRao on 23 Mar 2009 17:53, edited 1 time in total.

Viv Sreenivasan
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Viv Sreenivasan » 23 Mar 2009 17:52

Pakistan is already a failed state. When you cant control your borders and large parts of the country are in militants hands and when the political system is a bad joke, you have a failed state.

Coming to the future stragtic scenario of India. Trust me i wish i could say that India is going to be the next 'superpower' as many people say but i just dont see it happening. The problems facing India are just too large. A list of problems that i just thought over the top of my head.

-Overpopulation
-Corruption
-Endemic poverty
-Environmental degradation including air, water, food pollution
-Castesim
-Highest rate of child malnutrition in the world, even worse than subsaharan africa (WTF!)
-Communalism
-Sepratist movements (Naxals, Maoists etc)
-Widening gap between have's and have nots.
-Widespread hunger in lower classes (average indian caloric intake has FALLEN GRADUALLY since 1973)
-Bad Primary education facillites for poor.
-Dowry murders
-Ragging on campus facilites
-Religious Extremists like that idiot Mutalik who wants to ban Valentines day
-'Regional extremists'- like that idiot Raj Thackray who would probably prefer Maharashthra only for Marathas.
-A dumbass media that acts sometimes against national interest
-Pakistan and the problems that arise out of that state
-Crappy Infrastructure
-Power cuts
-Communist parties esp in bengal
-Idiot politicians like Mayawati
-Justice system that doesnt really deliver justice
-Intelligence failures like mumbai
-A gutless political establisment.


Wow India really has its plate full. I just thought about the above list in like a minute, there are probably a hell of a lot more problems.
Seriously if India can keep itself together and ensure that its citizens are safe and have a decent standard of living (which it is not doing atm). It will be a MASSIVE acheivement. Forget about being a superpower.
-

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby RayC » 23 Mar 2009 18:03

shiv wrote:
vadivelu wrote:http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/EBOOKS/pfs.pdf

how long does it take a state to fail?


That depends on your definition of a failed state. The above link has my definition of a failed state. Kindly define what you think is a failed state or a successful state for that matter.


When a country fails to exercise its sovereignty, it could be termed as a failed state.

When a country fails to provide its population a basic minimum income. basic minimum health care, basic minimum education the country is a failed state.

When a country cannot provide for internal and external security of it Nation and its populace it is a failed state.

When a country is unable to interact with the comity of nations in a constructive manner, not being taken seriously and when a country is unable to be economically acceptable as a equal partner, owing to a serious economic decline, it is a failed state.

And so on and so forth.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby NRao » 23 Mar 2009 18:12

VV,

A Conversation With David Kilcullen

IMHO, on why the west is worried about Pakistan:

What is the real central front in the war on terror?

Pakistan. Hands down. No doubt.

Why?

Pakistan is 173 million people, 100 nuclear weapons, an army bigger than the U.S. Army, and al-Qaeda headquarters sitting right there in the two-thirds of the country that the government doesn't control. The Pakistani military and police and intelligence service don't follow the civilian government; they are essentially a rogue state within a state. We're now reaching the point where within one to six months we could see the collapse of the Pakistani state, also because of the global financial crisis, which just exacerbates all these problems. . . . The collapse of Pakistan, al-Qaeda acquiring nuclear weapons, an extremist takeover -- that would dwarf everything we've seen in the war on terror today.


As I have said before, the west is in deep fear. One that is larger than that of Indian fear. All these years the west has managed Pakistan - which included the "risk" taken by India. They did not take care of this problem and did not allow India to take care of it, thus this predictable situation.

Now the situation demands action. However, the west would love to dictate what needs to be done and make others take the risk. India should sit tight and watch for a while, until given a prominent role to play. Which will happen.

Viv Sreenivasan
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Viv Sreenivasan » 23 Mar 2009 18:22

Just to juxtapose my previous post, i will ask the question what problems does an advanced state like Australia face?

They include things like

-obesity
-effects of climate change
-binge drinking
-drug use
-mental illness

Bascially social factors. Its not like India doesnt suffer from these as well, but the overwhelming economic/environmental/governance issues just cover it up.

Being a third world nation sucks big time. What did we do to deserve it? But more importantly how can we get out of this rut? Big questions.

shiv
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby shiv » 23 Mar 2009 18:49

Viv Sreenivasan wrote:-Idiot politicians like Mayawati
-



Please watch your tongue. I admire Mayawati. I'm not joking.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby RayC » 23 Mar 2009 19:41

People call the US as the Land of Opportunity.

India too is a land of opportunity, depends of course upon one being astute and having guile.

Quite a few of our politicians are genuinely rags to riches variety.

I was watching The Big Fight and there was Pappu Yadav, who was extolling his virtues and what he has done for the ''people''!!

I marvel at the way politicians, before becoming politicians were poor as a churchmouse and doing menial jobs are today owner of properties in crores and with money that defies imagination!

And these are people who will decide the future strategy of this Nation!


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