Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

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Atri
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Atri » 05 Apr 2009 06:08

durgesh wrote:As far as Hindu massacre at the hands of Islam is concerned.It's inevitable. History has a habit of repeating itself. Hindus are too fragmented to unite even for their survival. Mandal has destroyed Kamandal for eternity.


The revival of Bhaaratiya civilization has to come from that segment of society which is referred to as OBC and BC in Post-Mandal India. If you notice, this is slowly becoming the largest support base of BJP in past two decades. Social mobility in play here. This same mobility converted mlenchha huns to Kshatriya Rajputs.

Although the immediate damage done to Indic civilization by implementation of Mandal commission recommendations cannot be disputed, I feel the new change should and will come from this very segment. The damage will be nullified as more and more castes get the status of OBC and BC. There will be simply too many people under one category, which won't make benefits viable. This will however unite them under one denomination.

The biggest damage will come if Sachar committee's recommendations are implemented. I pray that should not happen.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Prem » 05 Apr 2009 07:38

Sreenivasan
When Mughals and British were on top, no one could even imagine they will be sent down the garbage bin. My feeling is exactly opposite of you , the revival of Bhoomiputras started in 80s and getting better every day . Soon there will be No India but Bharat and Her free Dharmputras .

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 05 Apr 2009 22:01

Viv Sreenivasan wrote
Howevery alluring what brihaspati writes it is unfortunately a pipe dream. Its like suddenly expecting all african countires to give up conflict for peace- its simply not going to happen.
Brihaspati its better for you to know this to save you years if not decades of dissappointment. There is close to zero chance for your vision to come true.

Vivji, (if I may call you so!)
Thank you for your good wishes. I very much appreciate what you have tried to say and warn me about. No I will not be disappointed. I have seen too much and gone through too much in terms of political and social experience of "Bharat" to simply fantasize. I could never debate for something I did not believe in or felt sure about. I have always fought against my intuition with my rational mind, but over many years now I have felt that the destiny of Bharat has a lot more to it than we currently see.
Visions come true when a significant determined minority start believing in the vision. I propose ideas and strategies I feel are feasible, but of course others may not see it that way. But what if they think on it, suggest improvements, show pitfalls, all with a purpose behind to produce something even better and more workable than that I had suggested? That possibility is too tempting for me.
In my own estimate I have probably come halfway through my life and one which has been quite colourful. So I may not have a very long time to see my dreams come to fruition. But I hope to see a lot of that within the next 40 years. If it is alluring, why not spare a thought on it? What if you come out with something even better, aiming for what we all obviously want?
Dreaming alone does not help. Working on that dream is needed. Only through trying to put it in practice can we learn how far we really can go. But I have this deep sense inside, and I cannot dismiss it for I have come to it in spite of my hard struggle to rationally debunk it, that Bharat's destiny is to reassert itself over the subcontinent and beyond, over the Indian Ocean, over its internal and external detractors, and it will probably do it through a grim ruthless campaign - both political as well as military. It is the genrations who will increasingly populate over the next 30 years that are going to be involved.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby darshhan » 05 Apr 2009 23:36

Brihaspatiji , you have my complete support.

Viv I can understand your impatience.Geopolitical realities don't change so soon.The timeline for such change is in decades and sometimes even in centuries.If possible just read the history of Reconquista and note how much time it took the christians to overwhelm the muslims in spain.As far as I recollect it took them more than 700 years to wipe out the islamic trace from spain.By the way spain is much smaller than India and much less diverse than India.

So you can imagine the difficulty level of the task.Maybe it wouldn't be completed within our lifetimes.That shouldn't be discouraging.We should instead concentrate on doing our utmost in this direction.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Keshav » 05 Apr 2009 23:52

darshhan wrote:Viv I can understand your impatience.Geopolitical realities don't change so soon.The timeline for such change is in decades and sometimes even in centuries.If possible just read the history of Reconquista and note how much time it took the christians to overwhelm the muslims in spain.As far as I recollect it took them more than 700 years to wipe out the islamic trace from spain.By the way spain is much smaller than India and much less diverse than India.


:shock:

Let's be clear, first, that our goal is not Reconquista! Why are you even talking about this? Brihaspati's ideas, whatever you may think of them, are generally grandiose and inclusive and do not include genocides, inquisitions, or other such atrocities. It's weird that I have to say this but a few loonies can make everyone crazy.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby darshhan » 06 Apr 2009 04:06

Let's be clear, first, that our goal is not Reconquista! Why are you even talking about this? Brihaspati's ideas, whatever you may think of them, are generally grandiose and inclusive and do not include genocides, inquisitions, or other such atrocities. It's weird that I have to say this but a few loonies can make everyone crazy.



Keshavji I just gave an example of time needed to change geopolitical realities on the ground.That includes both by peaceful means as well as by violent means.I never said anything about genocides.What I meant is that Spanish took such a long time to get their country back.I am not suggesting that we follow the same strategy.I am just telling that we should be patient.Infact Patience is one of the hallmarks of peaceful people.

By the way lot of Indian territory is in foreign hands(POK and Aksaichin).Surely as an Indian you shouldn't have any problems when we get these territories back.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 06 Apr 2009 16:18

Just an interjection, there was not much of a genocide during the formal reconquering of territories in Spain by the "Christians". In fact modern evidence suggests that many simply switched sides, and were accepted at "top" positions and retained their full privileges. There were formal negotiations for population exchanges and guarantees of safe passage which were kept. The genocidic aspects developed later when the organized Church was fighting against pre-existing ideological components within the population, and wanted a "purge".

I have suggested only "neutralizing" the Islamic theologians, destroying their educational networks and bringing the "flock" under compulsory modern educational processes. However it has to be understood that a continuous ideological struggle has to be waged to undermine the hold of "Islam" and in a sense alternative faiths have to be "marketed" propely - as infinitely more "attractive".

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Keshav » 06 Apr 2009 19:43

brihaspati wrote:Just an interjection, there was not much of a genocide during the formal reconquering of territories in Spain by the "Christians". In fact modern evidence suggests that many simply switched sides, and were accepted at "top" positions and retained their full privileges. There were formal negotiations for population exchanges and guarantees of safe passage which were kept. The genocidic aspects developed later when the organized Church was fighting against pre-existing ideological components within the population, and wanted a "purge".


I've read the same thing as well, but to say that people did not die in droves is not true. The idea of Reconquista was not genocide or it would not have been a very successful "re-conquering"!

darshann wrote:By the way lot of Indian territory is in foreign hands(POK and Aksaichin).Surely as an Indian you shouldn't have any problems when we get these territories back.


You forgot about Arunachal Pradesh. India still has to work that out with China.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby RamaY » 06 Apr 2009 20:01

brihaspati wrote:Just an interjection, there was not much of a genocide during the formal reconquering of territories in Spain by the "Christians". In fact modern evidence suggests that many simply switched sides, and were accepted at "top" positions and retained their full privileges. There were formal negotiations for population exchanges and guarantees of safe passage which were kept. The genocidic aspects developed later when the organized Church was fighting against pre-existing ideological components within the population, and wanted a "purge".

I have suggested only "neutralizing" the Islamic theologians, destroying their educational networks and bringing the "flock" under compulsory modern educational processes. However it has to be understood that a continuous ideological struggle has to be waged to undermine the hold of "Islam" and in a sense alternative faiths have to be "marketed" propely - as infinitely more "attractive".


Unfortunately some minds can only think/see in genocidal terms whenever someone suggests removal of alien and virulent ideologies. This is a tactic used by the liberal minds to divert the discussion and cry wolf for every idea that is helpful to this civilization and its future. I sometime wonder if these liberals are really propagating the idea of mass conversion to Islam or Christianity or what, to avoid conflict and to preserve their percious lifestyles.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 06 Apr 2009 21:44

With blasts again in Assam, the issue of working out a strategy for consolidation of whatever is remnant in the periphery that binds it to an extent to the core, comes up again. Waiting for the Congress or the Indians state establishment will simply lead Assam into a situation, where they will either surrender to the EJ+ULFA+BD+Islamists+PRC nexus, or join the separatist bandwagon.

Whatever reservation people may have I am increasingly being forced to consider the possibility that we have to launch movements that encourage, revive, and foster pre-Islamic pre-Christian cultural-religious entities that existed in the Brahmaputra valley and still exist under overlays. Both Vaishnava and Shaiva cultural networks flourished here, and a sizeable Vasihnava community still exists on the majestic islands on Brahmaputra.

The strategy followed in Odra could be thought of. We have to think of this as a simultaneous political as well as cultural movement that seeks to become the basis for a sfuture state power. The GOI and the current Indian state machinery is not geared at all towards such strategic thinking.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 08 Apr 2009 00:06

Following on from above, cultural revivalist movements in the North East that show strong connections to the rest of India, and are of pre-Islamic, pre-Christian roots could also help us overcome the feeling of isolation that Assam bhumiputras have developed over the years. Like many other parts of India, there is a need to culturally draw people still outside of Jihad and EJ influence together into a structure that makes them feel belonging to a strong group that will fight external threats - where the state and the so-called secular forces are obviously failing, and their only methods appearing to be further appeasement of Jihad.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 08 Apr 2009 00:29

The Taliban thrust towards India is now probably materializing even as per GOI lament. Those who have been dreaming for implosion of TSP should sit up and notice. I am the lone "paranoid" voice perhaps in this forum who consistently batted for a forward military occupation across TSP to the western borders of TSP.

A lot of the strategic negatives for India I had scoped for are possibly coming together now. Obama's policy as I mentioned before was about stabilization and all his initial bluster would be simply not be outdone by Bush's legacy. His ultimate goal would be a compromise with Jihad, minimize US commitments and withdraw without appearing to withdraw. The US is leaving the neo-caliphate, and Obama is simply trying to buy it out by paying TSP.

Whetehr India likes it or not, my envisioned Talebjabi caliphate expansive thrust from their base area in the TSP-AFG border, into the South East will start now in earnest. They will be helped by PRC, who will se this as a golden opportunity to seal off India's potential linking up with AFG of blocking Chinese access to the subcontinent through north Kashmir. The Caliphates expansion into Kashmir is a big strategic gain for Jihad. A weak and Islam-appeasing GOI will simply give this as proof that we are not doing sufficiently in appeasement.

I know many here ridicule such thoughts as projection of "fear" born out of "incompetence". But it just might be worthwhile for thos who "fear" to think for themselves. Think about an alternative structure to the weak state, for even the unthinkable could happen - the Indian state could fall before Jihad in the North. And this would then be an unrelenting aggression from neo-caliphate jihad.

I think to a certain extent, this is a positive sign. At the very least we will have some chance of reconstructing an alternative that is more appropriate for the situation. The Red Army under Mao could save itself from encirclement and annihilation in their southern base by moving to the north ostensibly to fight the Japanese. But in the north the Nationalists, their "annihilators" had retreated before the Japanese and escaped to the south - leaving the communists under Mao free to exist and take on the mantle of the "real nationalists" who fight for the "country".

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 08 Apr 2009 00:45

This is a great opening for the modeling scenario. In order to facilitate it, we need more "rules of engagement," if it is clear to you what I mean by that. Can you expand further of the possible interactions including Russia perhaps?

S

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby JwalaMukhi » 08 Apr 2009 00:56

X-posting from Tibet thread:
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/diggi ... nd/443896/
And this shutting of eyes is typical: we shut our eyes to the Talibanisation of Pakistan; to the Talibanisation of Bangladesh; to the ingress of Bangladeshis into the Northeast; to the consequences for us of China encircling India — Myanmar as a colony, a military pact with Bangladesh, a fully militarised and nuclearised Tibet, a willing and dependent instrument in Pakistan.
In the case of China and Tibet, as the years have gone by, we have shut our eyes tighter and tighter.

a China that is spreading its influence in Latin America, Central Asia, Africa is not going to overlook these countries along its southern rim. Had not Mao declared, “Tibet is the palm of China, the Himalayan kingdoms are its fingers”?

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby RamaY » 08 Apr 2009 01:47

brihaspati wrote:Whetehr India likes it or not, my envisioned Talebjabi caliphate expansive thrust from their base area in the TSP-AFG border, into the South East will start now in earnest. They will be helped by PRC, who will se this as a golden opportunity to seal off India's potential linking up with AFG of blocking Chinese access to the subcontinent through north Kashmir. The Caliphates expansion into Kashmir is a big strategic gain for Jihad. A weak and Islam-appeasing GOI will simply give this as proof that we are not doing sufficiently in appeasement.


Taliban need not come to Indian controlled J&K. Even if they neutralize POK it would increase the cost for India.

IMO, India must prepare for a military action to liberate POK and integrate united J&K into India (no A370). This is the only way it can deny the strategic-offensive space to PRC. If POK is talebanized, it will be doubly difficult for India to reoccupy it without major human loss.

Liberation of POK will not only dent PRC’s strategic offense, but also act as strategic defense for future Pakistani directed strategies.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 08 Apr 2009 02:10

Is it fair to say that the only plausible outcome for pakistan is complete talibanization? Don't we have to look at both US and Chinese role in preventing that? If the US leaves, it is not clear what China's relationship with a talibanized Pak will be. Therefore, wouldn't it be useful to draw the Russians and Iranians in now to have a stake in the outcome while it is possible?

S

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 08 Apr 2009 02:21

There was a time that the US or West could have prevented Talibanization of TSP but that did not happen for the West did not understand the nature of the problem. They thougt they were creating a weapon against FSU and then India. As for PRC its influence over jihadis is highly overrated. The jihadis appear to listen to PRC in order to obtain support against India.

Its break up ya Talibainzation.

I said many times earlier that in Islamist societies the hardliner/literalist will prevail over the softliners/interpreters.

two keys:

Tibetian nationalism to create buffer zone between India and PRC and

Falun Gong for transitioning PRC-> China.

West wants to PRC-> Christian China

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Atri » 08 Apr 2009 02:28

RamaY wrote:
brihaspati wrote:Whetehr India likes it or not, my envisioned Talebjabi caliphate expansive thrust from their base area in the TSP-AFG border, into the South East will start now in earnest. They will be helped by PRC, who will se this as a golden opportunity to seal off India's potential linking up with AFG of blocking Chinese access to the subcontinent through north Kashmir. The Caliphates expansion into Kashmir is a big strategic gain for Jihad. A weak and Islam-appeasing GOI will simply give this as proof that we are not doing sufficiently in appeasement.


Taliban need not come to Indian controlled J&K. Even if they neutralize POK it would increase the cost for India.

IMO, India must prepare for a military action to liberate POK and integrate united J&K into India (no A370). This is the only way it can deny the strategic-offensive space to PRC. If POK is talebanized, it will be doubly difficult for India to reoccupy it without major human loss.

Liberation of POK will not only dent PRC’s strategic offense, but also act as strategic defense for future Pakistani directed strategies.


I remember reading it somewhere on BRF.. The only way to negate the partition is capturing POK and Coastline of Pakistan. Once TSP becomes a land-locked country, partition is negated.

Kashmir will establish the links with central asia. India can strike deal with China regarding gas supply - Iran-India-China.. Russia will gain access to warm waters through India. and everything falls in place. We really don't need to give a damn about pakjab and nwfp. Just conquer a small belt on Paki coastline upto Iran and capture POK. The moment we control Karakorum highway, everything falls down in favour of India. This way, we neutralize British empire.

To neutralize China, we need to bring democracy in Myanmar.

1. Capture POK completely. leave aside aksai chin for time-being, no need to touch it.
2. Capture coastal strip of Pakistan all the way upto Iran. This won't be difficult after Sindh. Control the coastline.
3. Prioritize the democratic movement in Myanmar.

This is the least Bhaarat SHOULD DO. Rest, will fall in place.. Just gain strength for fulfilling these three objectives.
Last edited by Atri on 08 Apr 2009 02:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 08 Apr 2009 02:29

But if no one props Pak, why won't they simply keep folding one sector at a time, like Swat?
What I don't understand is what China might make of the talibanization. If it sees the threat to itself, and wishes to act, may be helping it to continue to prop will be the right move so that increases the prospect of a break up? (and like wise with US). Or has this line of thinking now collapsed?

S

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 08 Apr 2009 06:15

PRC could have come to an agreement with the Talebs a la Stalin Hitler pact. They each eye the other as potential enemy. However, the Talebs now know that only the PRC is their only reliable source of sustenance material wise apart from the funding trickling in from the Gulf. Further they have to cross barren, and unproductive regions to get to the real "meat" of China.

Compared to that India is much more lucrative. Has a huge population which had once according to Islamic and Thaparite myth really let the historical Jihadis to lord it over them. If the Bollywood "Hindu" houri's preferences are any indicator, paradise could be just for the plucking here on earth. Current regimes voted to power electorally by majority seem to reflect a desire in the majority to give-in to the Jihadi after some initial show and bluster. The GOI never even dares to hit back at the sources of Taleb terror.

The Talebs score hugely if they overrun India for they think they will easily coerce this populace which is fervently and overjealously tolerant of extreme violence and sadism from all other faiths than the "Hindu", into Islam. Further they can live off the resources of the land to expand further their Caliphate.

For quite a while they cannot antagonize PRC - that time will come once (if) they consolidate their rule by extending the Caliphate into most of India, and reach BD and the east, where it will clash with the strategic interests of China.

Russia loses in this arrangement, but it may not want to show its anti-Jihadi hand too early in fear of pushing the Jihadis faster into open PRC alliance, or revive the anti-Soviet AFG memories.

India should perhaps cultivate the Shias in TSP. But formally India can follow a policy similar to that of the Israelis - anyone who protects a "Indic origin faith" life is a "beloved" of India, and Shias known to protect TSP "hindus/buddhists" to be treated with the same honour. This will bring greater repression on them. Which is of course strategically not bad for India. India has to think of RUS+IRAN+India alliance against PRC.

The Myanmar angle was proposed by me sometime earlier. Its perhaps urgent to start the flanking moves into south-east Asia and promote a Tibetan Liberation Army. Distract and make PRC expend more on defence.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Atri » 08 Apr 2009 06:51

Won't Tibaten liberation army support too early? It will directly antagonize China. In myanmar, we at least have a moral high ground which is undisputed in the eyes of the West. The Democracy. Having accepted that Tibet is part of China, won't it be too audacious on our part to antagonize China by supporting TLA (Tibetan Liberation Army) without having a good infrastructure along Indo-Chinese border.

What Bhaarat can do is start inducting Tibetan youth in Indian army. If a Tibet Regiment is created, it will serve the same purpose. Alternatively, they need not be part of Indian army. They will be on the pay role of Tibetan government in exile who will sign a defence pact with GOI for military training of Tibetan Youth. They are about 120,000 in India overall. It is easily possible to create a force as strong as 30,000-35,000 out of them.

This will take at least 6-7 years.. And mean while it will be excellent if somehow we could enter into defence treaties with Nepal and Bhutan of deploying our BSF on their chinese borders and develop infrastructure in their lands. Especially Bhutan. The Siliguri corridor is too narrow. If we could create at least one more parallel route to Siliguri-Tinsukhia route for Northeastern states through Bhutan it would enormously serve our purpose.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 08 Apr 2009 08:31

Is this the corridor we want?
How do we maintain the eastern/northern front with China? If we can find a way to do that, I think the rest can, in principle, fall in place.
Corridor 1: Maintained by RU and IR.
Corridor 2: Maintained by RU, IR and IN.
Corridor 3: Maintained by IN, TAJIK, UZBEK, KAZAKH
Corridor 4: IN
Corridor 5: IR
Corridor 6: IN-IR.

Junction 1/Caspian: Supply base.
Junction 1/2: A RU/IR/IN Base
Junction 2/4:IN Base (Holding/Logistics)
Junction 3/4: IN Base (Strike/Expeditionary/Air)
Junction 3/Kazakh: Supply base.

Use route 1-2 and KAZ-3 for equipment.
Use route 6-5-2 for personnel.

Image

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 08 Apr 2009 21:46

Chiron wrote
Won't Tibaten liberation army support too early? It will directly antagonize China.
In myanmar, we at least have a moral high ground which is undisputed in the eyes of the West. The Democracy. Having accepted that Tibet is part of China, won't it be too audacious on our part to antagonize China by supporting TLA (Tibetan Liberation Army) without having a good infrastructure along Indo-Chinese border.

It does not have to be officially declared support. It can form on its own. After that who they negotiate with for support is not necessarily a GOI affair. There could be "third parties" easily setup. Think corporate srategies to evade taxation and accountability. :mrgreen: Some GOI accepted "Tibet" as part of China? We didn't! We will decide in the future what is apart of China or not, and will pehaps most likely be decided on the battlefield.

What Bhaarat can do is start inducting Tibetan youth in Indian army. If a Tibet Regiment is created, it will serve the same purpose. Alternatively, they need not be part of Indian army. They will be on the pay role of Tibetan government in exile who will sign a defence pact with GOI for military training of Tibetan Youth. They are about 120,000 in India overall. It is easily possible to create a force as strong as 30,000-35,000 out of them.


Any formally recognized armed body of Tibetans poses a problem. It has to be an unofficial one. It cannot be part of the Indian army. However having a Tibetan regiment by name is perhaps unwise. Better have a "Himalayan" or "mountain" regiment. Good suggestion for "building up" though - fully appreciated.

This will take at least 6-7 years.. And mean while it will be excellent if somehow we could enter into defence treaties with Nepal and Bhutan of deploying our BSF on their chinese borders and develop infrastructure in their lands. Especially Bhutan. The Siliguri corridor is too narrow. If we could create at least one more parallel route to Siliguri-Tinsukhia route for Northeastern states through Bhutan it would enormously serve our purpose.


I am sure, IA/GOI has had secret negotiations for facing up to potential military scenarios against China with the countries mentioned. If not it will be donkeys at helm. These countries should be promised their claimed territories in case an "alliance" succeeds in pushing back PLA from Tibet.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 08 Apr 2009 23:58

Samuelji,
before the scenario you posted, we have to consider the possibility that we may have to overcome certain opposition from the PRC in achieveing that. Here I am posting a "pre-scenario", which may facilitate the arrangements you envisage.

Image

1 : Current and immediate future projection of Talebjabi holding lines
2 : second frontier of expansion into India targeted along the Gangetic plain and along corridors of natural "support". Note significantly that UP, Bihar and WB lie along this path with significant Muslim populations
3 : the eastern targeted frontier to link up with BD by the Talebs, this is where further expansion comes into potential conflict with PRC strategic interests
4 : Main current thrust of Talebjabis towards Kashmir valley
5 : if India's moves 6 and 8 are successful, this is where the Talebjabis should be "encouraged" to divert
6 : Indian move to disjoin the PLA and the Talebs in North Kashmir, and push for the eventual India controlled corridor A to CAR.
7 : Diversionary Indian move to the south of TSP aiming for Balochistan and Sind, drawing Talebjabis and formal PA down south.
8 : After securing entire Kashmir, Indian push through PRC occupied territories towards the northern flank of Tibet
9 : Indian holding lines in NE
10 : thrust through ArP towards Lhasa.

A : CAR corridor
B: Myanmar corridor
C : Gulf corridor

Northern Kashmir appears to be the crucial pivot, to prevent the Molotov-Ribbentrop type pacts materializing between PRC and Talebs to temporrarily split up India. Perhaps the Taleb thrust into Kashmir cannot be undercut unless attacked from within TSP at the entrance to the valley and while TSP forces are tied down in the south.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 08 Apr 2009 23:59

Jupiterji, If you take a very long view it is AF that provides the entry way for non Indic forces from time immemorial. One way of looking at Shakuni mama is that he was protecting the Gandhara interests by hanging out and meddling in Hastinapura. The Khyber was breached long time ago. We need to take a pre-Persian and pre-Alexanderian take and see the importance of Gandahara to Gangetic plains. The only invariant is geography and natural resources.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby samuel » 09 Apr 2009 00:13

Yes POK is the choke in opening the corridor, I completely agree with you. I am concerned at the number of thrusts that must be simultaneously managed. Minimizing that would be most beneficial. If you look at it (from the numberings in my image) Ayni is exactly where 2/4 and 3/4 meet. Good show! The next will be the Herat-Mashad axis. Mashod to RU is open and secure I think. Then will be Herat to North Af and this is where all that Highway work comes in. To me corridor 2 (again my map) is crucial. Presently, we must find a way to relieve the Americans either by joint IR/US sharing of corridor 2, or joint RU/IR/US sharing in return for transit rights via corridor 5 or 1 for the Americans. Once that happens, RU and IR can connect with us at junction 2/4 or 3/4. This will establish one route, e,g, 5-2 for men and 1-2 for material. We will still have to open Ayni-Tashkent-Kazakh, but that is not as crucial but a back up. With all this in place, we can push into 4. If we achieve that without the Laddakh front collapsing, we are home. Here, any help we can get we must. Once this path is open, TSP is over. China should in principle be happy too, it is a matter of what they are willing to do.

In the end, bounded by RU, Kazakh, IR, CN and India lie the CAR states - Turk, Uzbek, Kyrgyz, greater Pakhtun - and the buffers of what remains of Pak and Afg.
They must be small and managed at the boundaries by these "many gods" promoting "freedom and democracy" in the interior.

What will the UK to do prevent this from happening?
S

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Rudradev » 09 Apr 2009 01:48

Chiron wrote:
durgesh wrote:As far as Hindu massacre at the hands of Islam is concerned.It's inevitable. History has a habit of repeating itself. Hindus are too fragmented to unite even for their survival. Mandal has destroyed Kamandal for eternity.


The revival of Bhaaratiya civilization has to come from that segment of society which is referred to as OBC and BC in Post-Mandal India. If you notice, this is slowly becoming the largest support base of BJP in past two decades. Social mobility in play here. This same mobility converted mlenchha huns to Kshatriya Rajputs.


I agree. In the short run, it seemed as if Mandal was a grave threat to united Hindu society. Today, the Mandal beneficiaries are the rank and file of Hindu revivalism. A subgroup's immediate aspirations, if successfully fulfilled, will necessarily give way to wider aspirations for a wider identity of which that subgroup constitutes a part. The same principle can be extended to scheduled castes and tribes as well.

It is the empowerment these groups have received as a consequence of reservations and constitutional benefits, that equips them to look beyond their immediate subgroup identity and nurture aspirations for a wider, Hindu identity. With this comes the realization that they are Einvolk.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 09 Apr 2009 01:59

Ramanaji,
yes AFG remains the hinterland and the primary channel- I agree. Just that in the current context, the Talebjabi combination does not need to worry about Pakjab. I think two factors are working behind the thrust into Kashmir. PRC worry that further delay could jeopardize its hold on TSP establishment if the US somehow allows India to join in on AFG "management". Also if Russia comes to separate agreements with the Tajik component, Iran and India, then Russian dependence on China lessens, and these forces - USA, Rus, Iran and India could come together to feel sufficiently strong to ignore PRC to a great extent. So PRC would pressurize the Talebjabis to grab Kashmir as quickly as possible, especially when Indian electorate seems to return Islamophiles to supreme power and therefore can be expected to remain paralyzed before Islamic Jihad.

I am also not ignoring the possibility that PRC itself could have appeared (or actually due to resource constraints) to the Talebs to be weakening or retreating. So they could have come to a mutual agreement by which PRC would allow the Talebs to fill in the "gap".

Second, Kashmiri militants are probably feeling isolated and feel that intrusion of Talebs could bring new purpose and direction to the Jihadi movement. Whatever media campaign they could carrying out in trying to pretend that "native" militants are not in league with "imported ones", they are more likely to be coordinating their campaigns.

It is also possible that Jihadi networks now feel sufficiently confidentof local network support continuously from Kashmir, into the Gangetic plain along the significant Muslim presence states right up to BD.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 09 Apr 2009 02:09

Samuelji,
not all fronts need be based on actual involvement of the IA simultaneously. These could be thrusts using "irregulars" and in tandem or what appears to be unpredictable time sequence. But coordinated nonetheless. Clearing of those three corridors initially could be less dependent on "foreign" support than appears to be. I did not mean all simultaneous thrusts but rather feints and pretensions but one front being used as cover for others with all three sectors being important.

UK's role will be pro-PRC. For it will immediately realize the Indian gameplan which would virtually annihilate any potential hopes of UK meddling in "south Asia". It will do its best to sabotage the "India" axis, and help Talebs and PRC. It will activate all its "sleepers" within India at all levels in a desperate bid to stop these moves. It will provide intelligence and other help to PRC definitely. Its bases in Indian Ocean can be very effective monitors of Indian moves. India should insist on share of these bases in any future "cooperation" plans.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 09 Apr 2009 22:33

UK can also influence the "guillible" USA probably through shared bidirectional intelligence networks, that India should not be allowed to go ahead with such plans as it can upset the "power balance" now in "western favour". UK+PRC will be the source of greatest pain for Indian designs. Russia and USA need certain strategic accesses, UK on the otherhand needs to prove a point - that chasing the British out was a big mistake.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby ramana » 10 Apr 2009 00:41

I think that India can help raise Kabul Rifles on pattern of Vikas regiment as a counter terrorist organization for Afghansistan.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Atri » 10 Apr 2009 04:08

brihaspati wrote:UK can also influence the "guillible" USA probably through shared bidirectional intelligence networks, that India should not be allowed to go ahead with such plans as it can upset the "power balance" now in "western favour". UK+PRC will be the source of greatest pain for Indian designs. Russia and USA need certain strategic accesses, UK on the otherhand needs to prove a point - that chasing the British out was a big mistake.


Brihaspatiji,

This is intriguing. Does it really matter now after 62 years? I mean, entire 2 generations in UK and India have passed by. What makes you think that UK is still virulent for loss of India in 1947? The younger generation of UK won't give a damn about their colonial past.

UK's interests must coincide with interests of USA and the west in general. The economies of UK and USA are so inter-tangled that there can't be such huge disparity in the interests of UK and USA, when it comes to Central and South Asia.

One thing which is going in your argument's favour is the devaluation of Pound-sterling. They are seriously thinking of introducing Euro in UK. If that happens, the prestige of US-Dollar will be affected sharply and Euro will emerge as new global currency. If currency of trade for crude oil becomes Euro, then the divergence of UK from USA will start.


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What's Greater Middle East?

Postby Akshut » 10 Apr 2009 16:13

x-posting from US thread.

This is an article buy Robert D. Kaplan in NYtimes on 8 dec 2008.

Trouble in the Other Middle East

Just as solving or at least neutralizing the Israeli-Palestinian dispute is a requirement for reducing radicalism and Iranian influence throughout the Levant, the same is true of the Indian-Pakistani dispute at the other end of the Greater Middle East.


We need a second special negotiator for the Middle East, a skilled diplomat shuttling regularly among New Delhi, Islamabad and Kabul. (There has been some speculation, in fact, that Barack Obama is considering Richard Holbrooke, the former United Nations ambassador, for just such a job.)


The Middle East is back to where it was centuries ago, not because of ancient hatreds but because of globalization


Our best strategy is, as difficult and trite as it sounds, to be at all places at once, Not with troops, necessarily, but with every bit of energy and constant attention that our entire national security apparatus — and those of our allies — can bring to bear.


This was just after Mumbai attacks Happened.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 10 Apr 2009 19:33

Chironji,
Loss of formal overlordship of India was disastrous at a much deeper British civilizational level. It coincided with the general fading away of the empire and giving up of predominant British position globally to the Americans and the Soviets. However the loss was more significant because the British had made up the Indian empire to be the "jewel in its crown" with good economic reasons too. Loss of India was a huge blow to their power projection, and could have substantially eroded its grip on global power scenario. Rerireval of thsi authority in some form over India would be a restart of its power projection globally.

The fact is that UK tries to remain independent of both continental Europe as well as the USA and uses each to balance the other. When it is a general failure from both sides it opportunistically goes on to powers like the PRC. Moreover their political psyche appears to be remain firmly ensconced in a subtle type of racism and I would say rather a primitive animalistic attitude of worshipping the "victorious". In the British viewpoint, the Indians never beat the hell out of them militarily, and were ultimately all defeeated. From their viewpoint, Indians got their official freedom only because it became too expensive for an exhausted UK to run the admin. Because Indians in a certain sense were "manumitted" by them, Indians will never be their "equal" in their eyes. Their whole psychology is based on licking the boots of the winner - winning is beautiful and the endall criterion to judge a person or a nation. You can see this in the relish with which they describe the violent takeover and enslavement of their own nation by the Romans and take pride in Roman symbols.

My speculative line about the modern trend reflecting the old UK hatred of independent India is that UK sees an independent and Islam resisting India as obstruction to its indirect continued hold over the subcontinent. It was primarily responsible for foisting Pakistan as a strategic bulwark and docile executor of British wishes in the subcontinent, since it could not rely on the anglophile regime it had put in place in India. And it was the British intelligence networks all over the subcontinent that was basically asked to support the US in taking uo its new role in Asia.

But given the thoroughly unprincipled and twisted nature of British foreign policy machinations, I would be inclined to think that all through the post independence period they have subtly carried on agame by which the US presence and authority is gradually eroded over the subcontinent. It allowed the US backing up of Mujahideen because it coincided with UK interests in keeping Russia away from the zone. But subsequently it has gone back to bolstering up Pakistan. Recent comments from UK legislators are not such a bad reflection about their essentially anti-Indian thrusts.

Uk tropp presence in AFG for me is bad thing. Combined with their pre-existing intelligence penetration and sharing of command information with the US could imply a calculated reverse flow of information to the Talebs which has seen the AFG fromnt gradually roll back toa stalemate. Bidirectional intelligence networks can also be used to subtly misinform and alter perceptions aming the Americans. An important clue would be the significant ties developed with PRC and investments in the UK from the Gulf. Pressure from botha s well as UK's own long term ambitions for dominance could be subtly combined to squeeze and destabilize India. In the UK viewpoint, its prosperity depends on military dominance of global resources. And India obviously is going to be a key factor.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Keshav » 10 Apr 2009 19:43

Everybody on BRF really needs to get over this whole conspiracy theory about how Britain is in anyway relevant or worse yet, a threat to India in any way other than support American designs which adversely affect India.

Really, people. If you knew Britishers, you would realize that they really don't give a damn about India and they have no hangups about the empire other than defending from people who would run it down.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 10 Apr 2009 20:21

I have to interact with many Britishers over the year. The common Britisher is just as without influence on British foreignpolicy or deep covert actions as that of the common Indian on Indian foreign policy (no cover action on tha latter's part so left it out). The state authority has to be looked as a two stage game, where certain groups first negotiate with the "commons" for power, and onec that power is obtained, the group in power nego tiates with similar groups elsewhere. As long as such negotiations do not hamper the first order negotiation with the commons, the "elite" in power can do pretty as much as they please in the secondary or external interaction.

The common Britisher's nonchalance about what happens to India should not be taken as reflection of the Brtish state establishment's priorities or plans. You can see this in the recent complex tidal flows in financial policies and the reactions of the commons to the G20 or G8.

An untestable hypothesis can be deemed a conspiracy theory. However what I have stated about British attitudes or plans can be tested out in the immediate and longterm future. It will come out in their stand on supporting TSP and Taleban, or hints of compromises with the Mullahs, insistence on the "Kashmir" problem, etc.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 10 Apr 2009 21:03

Keshav wrote:Everybody on BRF really needs to get over this whole conspiracy theory about how Britain is in anyway relevant or worse yet, a threat to India in any way other than support American designs which adversely affect India.

Really, people. If you knew Britishers, you would realize that they really don't give a damn about India and they have no hangups about the empire other than defending from people who would run it down.

I hope you are not talking about common Britisher who have love and affection for Indians and curries.
Here we are talking about state policy and strategic policy of Britain and its allies over several centuries.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Arun_S » 10 Apr 2009 22:39

Keshav wrote:Everybody on BRF really needs to get over this whole conspiracy theory about how Britain is in anyway relevant or worse yet, a threat to India in any way other than support American designs which adversely affect India.

Really, people. If you knew Britishers, you would realize that they really don't give a damn about India and they have no hangups about the empire other than defending from people who would run it down.

Surely there are Britishers (or even Americans) who only read the tabloid for fashion and juicy titillating sexploites. Does that diminish the reality that there are also Britishers who also read more informed news papers, or books, and there are Britishers who govern (administer) that are ingrained with education and profession of statecraft. These people really do not read the tabloid that is stable feed for the Britishers you are taking about. These Britishers monitor, analyse, make policies and administer them making use of the ordinary Britishers that you talk about.

They have a functioning organization, that is bigger than collection of lay Britishers, that is their source of power. Those who fail to see it, will have to experience the result of the harvesting blade, when those policies come to reap their reward.

So walk at your own peril. Of course one is free to do as Ostritch do (by calling it by whatever name, conspiracy theory or something else), or keep eyes open and really fight to win. Really an individual free choice.

I say open your eyes and OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide and Act).

Thank you.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 11 Apr 2009 18:34

Pak gov's recent claims of India behind the Lahore attacks, in spite of supposed claims by Bytullah Mehsood, is significant. In my analytical framework, I would see this as an indication that the PA and its foreign handlers have now decided that the further spread of Taleban and the PA+Talebjabi expansion plans need a a formal cover to divert global attentions.

PA or UK+PRC is not exactly sure about the future outcomes of the Indian elections. If a Congress governemnt is not returned to power tolerance of Jihad is not guaranteed. Even a third/fourth front collapsing under the weight of their own Islamophilia could get replaced by a staunchly and actively anti-Jihadi right-wing government. Additionally, economic recovery in UK and PRC may be facing severe obstacles. Under the circumstances, starting a proxy war on India would be a tempting solution. Both countries can sell their military hardware to TSP at a premium bought against the US bailout given to TSP (as per TSP track record in juggling funds taken for one purpose into investing for terrorism and war on India).


For TSP too, the next stages of the Talebjabi+PA expansion plans need to focus on India. To allow diversion and cover up of the plan to expand east under the excuse of defending against "Indian aggression". This actually derails all US caluclations of retreating from AFG in good order. US will have to face the dilemma of fighting further south within TSP and abandon hopes of any remnant influence in AFG proper, or, activate the northern supply route to preserve AFG sector but abandon TSP sector.


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