Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby manju » 02 Sep 2009 09:53

brihaspati wrote
I have indeed tried out the "karma without expectation"


surinder wrote:[quote=".......I am curious if a scientific person has tried this approach and found it emperically better/useful/true. ............ ?
[/quote]

some random thoughts..

- Often, when I hear statements like above, I feel that the person (I dont mean you Surinderbhai..I am generalizing) subconsciously thinks that science and dharma are somehow mutually exclusive or contradictory. This, as has happened in the historical past is quite true of non-eastern religions. (Galileo being improsined by the Church for saying earth is not center of universe, etc)..

- Let me give an example:
A scientist conducting a clinical trial (research) discovers a drug named A which has the poential to treat a deadly disease.
Now the scientist has to find out if the new drug A that he/she has discovered is any better than the current standard (let us call it drug "B"). The scientist has everything to gain if t turns out drug A is better than B.. He will make croroes of rupees.

However, if in the process of his research he is biased and sincerely hopes and fudges data to prove A is better than B he is doing science and humanity a big disfaovr. Drug A will be falsely accepted as a cure and patients will suffer.
- If the scientisit is more interested in proving that Drug A is better rather than finding out the truth- i.e How good is drug A compared to Drug B- then he is likely to compromise on the research methodology, fudge data, etc..
- He may unconsciously be biased in his methodology and the final reults will not revleal the TRUTH
- Therefore in science the STARTING point or the BASIC assumptions is the NULL HYPOTHESES that is "There is no difference between Drug A and B".
- Such being hte case how should the researcher balance these two potentially conflicting thought processes? He should be focused on finding out the truth which is possible if he ensure the processes (research methodology) is not compromised.
- the researcher/scientist should focus on the process to ensure there is no BIAS or any known or unkown extraneous influences (avoid confounding factors) that could affect the outomce of the study.
- TheN THE outcome of the reasearch/study will be better valued by the peers and those critically analysing the research..

I think Lord Krishna's advise to remain dispassionate (not disengaged) applies perfectly to this scientists situation. In fact I cant think of any other value system or anaology from the spiritual field that best applies to the scientific world.

Sorry, if I have not been able to communicate my idea more clearly!

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Pulikeshi » 02 Sep 2009 10:59

It takes the genius of the desi mind to confuse the spiritual for the material or scientific! :P
Perhaps they do converge, but so what?

Do not expect the "great big one in the Akash" to shower munificence on you or deny or punish you cruelly for your actions. Perform your actions (karma) without the expectation of spiritual reward. Do your dharma, thathastu.

See in my capitalist Hindu mind this does not translate to "do not worry about getting paid for your services" or "do not worry about your risky investments in the market" or "do not worry about getting ripped to shreds for the mental discharge you put down on paper and tried to convince a peer panel or reviewers" - Actions have cost/benefit period. :mrgreen:

For those of you who visit Tirupathi -
Give to the Lord a plenty, but do not expect the Lord to give anything to you
What the Lord wants the Lord gets, may the Lord help us all! :rotfl:

PPS: If you did not get it, there is major sarcasm alert in my entire post above.

Let me try a simple example - when I play tennis, not worrying about the effectiveness of my serve, has always resulted in a better serve. Not sure if this is what Krishna meant, but it seems to work. Also, I get to enjoy the serve more :mrgreen:

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Sanku » 02 Sep 2009 11:18

The highest message of Gita is Gyana yoga actually. Every one agrees with this.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 02 Sep 2009 18:03

Surinder,
In my educational and professional "actions" I was driven by an insatiable hunger for knowledge. It was more a quest for understanding rather than any target for rewards etc. In fact on many points, I had refused to take tempting (for shocked others) "offers" because I somehow did not feel the consequent material rewards as important. I have more been pushed to whatever my professional standing has become, rather by "fate" and insistent "seniors" and "gurus" in my specialty. In fact I have been singularly fortunate in somehow getting the unsolicited blessing of senior experts at each and every advance careerwise. Believe me, I have advanced without much effort on my part, and rather reluctantly. Even now, many times I feel the urge to leave it all behind, and become a monk as I had always wanted to be. But I cannot do it because I have accepted duty and responsibility towards others. In my professional and educational life, I definitely never was looking for rewards. But different questions and problems somehow always made me obsessively bite into them, until I got answers - this was perhaps found useful by gurus who used my respect and regard for them to bind me to commitments. Although I have had a tiff with RayC on the Partition thread about "oaths" and "given words", I personally have always tried to keep "given words", and hence when respected or regarded gurus (mostly my teachers at various levels) really insisted, I could not refuse them - "gurudakshina".

My caution about "action" in the societal scene comes from an extensive experience. In my very early childhood, I experienced the last remnants of Leftist violence before the Emergency. My family from both sides had a long history of involvement in politics and political upheavals dating as per legend from pre-Islamic times. They had originally come from the north-west and gradually moved eastwards, retaining internal traditions of "militancy" and "independence". With the advent of the British, some had joined them in the "first war" period but later on came into conflict. So after three generations they basically stopped and banned next gens from joining the army and admin under the British. They were closely linked with the early Congress and MKG's non-cooperation. Some of them suffered seriously. Then they supported Bose. I have it on good sources that they were also under surveillance for helping out a lot of "extremists". So it was not surprising that post Independence my parents would turn to the socialist "nationalists" and staunch anti-Communists. I had therefore very early exposure to intense political activism of the "grassroots" kind. I have seen a lot of activism, both of the political and apolitical kind. I have grave doubts about blind activism based on this accumulated experience.

Because my parents were away most of the time, I spent a lot of time with my grandparents, who in turn sent me around to grow up in the traditional "male" "education" of the family - spending time with tribes and non-tribal clans (both Muslims and non-Muslim) of "martial" bent, to learn their "trade". They were my first gurus. So my education was a strange mixture of learning to use the bow and spear and stick and hunt and self-teaching in the extensive library of my ancestors. I saw then how different parties and NGO's promoted activism and how futile and dangerous it was if the ideology behind the activism was not sourcing itself from the pre-existing underlying belief systems within the society.

In my adolescence the role of the grandparents was taken over by an ex-member of the "Syndicate", and I was taught a lot - especially in organization and activism from the "right". Here again, I saw others around him and their experiences in activism. After he passed away, I joined the mainstream Leftist student movement, and gradually went up the "ladder". Here again I saw activism from the "left".

By the time I excused myself from the "left", I have had my fill of pure "action". I deeply mourn all those young hearts I lost to the "extremists", whom I had failed to retain within the "normal" range. If these brilliant minds were still alive, they would at least be contributing in other areas of life.

The cumulative experience of mine says in the societal arena, if you plan society wide changes and transitions through activism, you have to be most careful that the activism is well thought out and the ground prepared properly. Here "nishkama karma" has to be qualified with "lakshyapuran". For an individual, perhaps "lakshyapuran" is not that important - but when a large number of other humans are involved, "lakshyapuran" is important as otherwise the price is paid by innocents.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Karmasura » 03 Sep 2009 01:10

Nishkaam karma is essential in most of the fields of life.. particularly science and brilliantly proven by Manju's example. Excessive, lustful hankering over a goal can make us do the wrong things.. But at the same time, we need to assure ourselves that our duty has been well done. There has to be a balance of both.

Here is a post I made on the "karmaniye vadhikaraste... " Ch. 2 sholka 47 of the BG that I made on my blog.
http://krishnabhakt.blogspot.com/2008/0 ... raste.html

An excerpt:
It is obvious that you should have desire for a goal of your action, and the goal should be the destination itself. A traveller without a direction, is lost in this journey of life. That is what happens to thieves, dacoits, terrorists and all. Either they are brain-washed, or are too weak-willed to do what they had wished to do, or perhaps they had no wishes and were thus led astray by the powers that be?

My interpretation is that this 'shloka' (verse) did not imply goal, but lust. Yes lust is indeed evil and must be avoided while performing an action. When there is lust, a person goes to great lengths to achieve what he wants to.. and in that he forgets sense of good and evil. To some extent, one has to employ a sense of detachment with what he does. "Do your action in good faith, work the hardest, but do not go beyond that." Could that be the meaning of this shloka?


Brihaspati, that is a very interesting upbringing...

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Sanku » 03 Sep 2009 01:21

Karmasura wrote:It is obvious that you should have desire for a goal of your action, and the goal should be the destination itself.


Actually all this confusion comes because of lack of English language concept of Kaama, so gets loosely translated as desire.

Kaama in Indian concept does not refer to the goal or desire (Dhyeya) but emotional involvement with the outcome.

emotional need for the outcome -- gets shortened as "desire" in English and all hell breaks loose.

Its just Anglais, and that's why I keep cribbing for a Indic link language.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 03 Sep 2009 01:41

I know I have done my bit now to veer the discussion into philosophy and towards OT. But my main concern was to express my tremedous discomfort with "activism" for the future of our nation, that does not also consider and constantly keep in mind the potential costs to be paid by millions of innocents.

I do not want to see a situation, where things like MKG' or JLN's commitments have to be paid with lives and pain of the massacred, raped, orphaned, looted, traumatized and stigmatized. I know that a certain degree of detachment from the suffering of people churned through a major, rough, but necessary societal transition is required on the part of the leadership. But let us not elect or select leaders whose first and most important characteristic is not an identification and overwhelming love for the "commonest" of man or woman of our nation. However able he or she may appear to be.

There can perhaps be many clues - the lifestyle of the person, his ability to earn on his own through some transparent means, consistency in standing beside the needy and the genuine sufferer, etc.

This was the main reason behind raising the issue of "nishkama karama" and "lakshyapuran".

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 03 Sep 2009 19:25

ramanaji's suggestion on the Partition thread made me reread Blunts collection of essays published in 1882 on the "Future of Islam".

Revisiting after almost 10 years, I have a much wider perspective on Blunt. Blunt's intellectual motivation can now be traced to two different but possibly interconnected anxieties of the Anglo-Saxon.

I will start with the following postulates. First, that there was always a dichotomy between the Germanic tribal conception of civilization and the Roman/Mediterranean concept of civilization. The Germanic remained a pastoral, atavic/forest based, simplicity loving ideal, whereas the Romano-Mediterranean one remained an urban, complexity loving one. The result of this was a constant struggle by the Germanic against urban, sophistication and centralization at the hands of the urban powers. In the philosophical realm this manifested in a struggle against the Roman centralized Church, whose power lay in the urban centres.

When the Reformation started, we know that this coincided with the Renaissance - and both came after some significant historical events. First the fall of the Fatimid caliphate in Al Andalus dispersed a lot of Islamic scholarship which had copied and maintained classical knowledge suppressed by the Roman church, back into Europe. While Islam was being displaced at least formally from the west, in the east, the Byzantine's fell and another face of Islam advanced into Europe - the Ottomans.

From the Germanic viewpoint, the Ottomans within Islam represented the analogue of the Roman Church within Christianity. The common distrust and hatred of the urban philosophies of the Roman orthodoxy and the Ottoman Islamic orthodoxy, would lead to creation of a space in the point of view of the Germanic where they would sympathize with the Sunni/Wahabi/Arabic interpretation of Islam. This would explain the convergence of political sympathies within the Protestants and the Wahabis - a common perception of the urbanized "imperial" theocracy as corrupt, and deviants from the "simpler/purer/true" "path".

Once this process started, and geo-political considerations come into place, the paradoxical German imperial love for the Ottomans is not difficult to understand - as they would be worried at the diasporic Germanic "protestant"'s activities to arouse the Arabic and Wahabi strains.

I would be inclined to believe that this original trend in the diasporic Germanic still remains, and hence their continuous fascination with the Wahabi versions of Islam. A lot of the Anglo-Saxons may not find it wrong in fact to convert formally into Islam.

For the future, India has a lot of lessons to learn from this process. First, the "Aranyak" component of the Bharatyia civilizational formulations should not be completely displaced as that can accommodate those who would feel disconnected and out of place in the increasing complexity of the urban. This should be promoted so as the Abrahamic atavistic memes do not gain more destructive capacity in increasing numbers. On the other hand, civilizational alliances with other long-term urbanized cultures should be actively explored.

We should have a much more intensive cultural charm offensive and even philosophical explorations of commonalities with the Chinese and Japanese civilizations (not the CCP) fopr example all the while we prepare for PLA assault.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby surinder » 03 Sep 2009 20:51

brihaspati wrote:Surinder,
In my educational and professional "actions" ...


B,

By sharing your rich experiences, you have enriched my life. Thanks.

Regards.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 03 Sep 2009 22:41

karmasura and surinder, many thanks for your comments on my expreience. On second thoughts, I should not have written it. :) But I thought I should explain my caution about "activism". For all, please ignore the personal aspects.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby sukhdeo » 03 Sep 2009 22:47

surinder,

Can you pls email me at sukhdeo at cox dot net. Thanks

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby surinder » 03 Sep 2009 23:19

Sukhdeo,

Done.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 04 Sep 2009 23:18

The AFG theratre is turning. Very recently the US military has been making noises that it may need more resources to "stabilize" the scene, and that the situation otherwise is "difficult". On the other hand the civilian portion of the adminsitration on the US side has been making grumbling noises at facing the possibility of committing more resources. They simply cannot commit so much resources without some subtatntial justifications as to why Americans should pour more down the Afghan pit. This is in line with what I explored here before. The stabilization strategy of Obama will lose the war for them, by making the action against Talebs non-mobile and therefore increasingly stationary and cornered.

The TSPA moved up north behind the Talebs who were needed in the AFG elections, and is a good cover for supplying the Talebs inside AFG. The skirmishes between Talebs and PA were basically about reasserting control over those in the Taleb who were taking their illusions of guerrilia independence too seriously.

But my worry was that under the pretext of moving up north and chasing the Talebs "up" the PA will arrange for some of the Jihadis to turn north and east. This at least initially should show up as a much higher rates of infiltrations. It could be important to track these and correlate with movements in the Swat and southern AFG sectors.

The US dilemma mentioned above, could also prompt them to try something rash - provoking an attack in the north of TSP or directed against India again - to provide the right excuses. If the US cannot do anything spectacular in AFG for the sake of its domestic constituency, US is going tof ollow the Obama limne of inventing a "good Taleban" and force a national "gov of consensus" on Karazai. A "weak" Karazai had to be "elected" with "clear majority" because such a gov will be amenable to US pressures. (Probably true of most govs now in Asia! - any overwhelming majority gov, that immediately compromises in mediations by the US - should be fishy). A Taleb+Karazai gov will transform into a Taleb gov again soon. And TSPA wins.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Johann » 05 Sep 2009 04:34

Sorry for the late response!

krishnapremi wrote:Johann,
Nobody disputes the right of jews to live in dignity.But where?Weizmann and others argued that it was possible only in Zion/palestine.It went against the grain of 20th century thought.


Perhaps this is because the Zionist movement was born in the 19th century?

'God' had granted the land to Israel(the believers).But how?The believers evicted the Cannanites.As a Hindu theist,I can argue that Iswara in his infinite wisdom evicted the jews out again.The Jews have again repossessed it by force.This is consistent with Hindu thought.Kshatra (military) power is the final arbiter of such things.


The vast majority of the Zionist movement was secular - their attachment to the historical Jewish homeland has nothing to do with acts of god, or divine mandates.

Jewishness has always been as much an ethnic identity as a religious one.

Consider for a second if the Gypsies, who had for so long forgotten their roots, had instead cherished memories of their homeland, and decided during rise of Fascism in the 1930s returned in numbers, settling in Pre-Partition Sindh, and attempted to build a future there?

What if they had refused to be driven out by Muslim League activists in 1947? Would you tell the Gypsies go back to Europe? Or ask them why they didnt try setting up shop in Africa or the Americas instead?

It is ridiculous to argue that I will migrate to a land and decide what is good for the natives.If an indvidual does that,you know what happens then.


It is ridiculous - which is why I called it naive.

If you have read my posts,you will notice that I am filled with reverence for men like Einstein,Marx,Freud and many jewish mathematicians,physicists,writers and thinkers.In fact their ideas repudiate simplistic monotheism.I am perfectly at home with Advaitic monotheism which understands the difference between ideals and reality.


Sadly it is difficult to find people of their calibre either in Europe or Israel today. The de-Judaisation of Europe has impoverished both cultures, and the world at large.

Most Hindus have sympathy for the state of Israel.But by western notions of 'liberalism','indigenous people' and all that crap,it is untenable.


Its true liberal sensibilities find Israel's self-definition as a defensible haven for Jews worldwide as chauvinistic.

Ultimately however it is not liberal sensibilities that threaten Israel's survival - it is the width and depth of Palestinian, Arab and Muslim determination, solidarity and hatred compared to the far smaller and fragile base of committed (ie risk taking) allies of Israel, and the faultlines within Jewish and Israeli community.

Apart from other Jews, and a declining number of Christian Zionists, Israel's other relationships are based ultimately on pragmatic factors which can shift against it For example the growth of Arab and Iranian economic power since the 1970s turned Europe from an Israeli asset to a Israeli burden.

As a Hindu I have no problem with the state of Israel.Its logic is that US is able to guarantee its existence.


The US was not going to intervene on its behalf in the war for its creation in 1948, or in the war for survival in 1967.

US strategic guarantees from that point on came as a *result* of the conventional and nuclear superiority that Israel had already established for itself (with the financial and political support of the diaspora).

America has backed Israel for one major reason - because that is the only way to restrain Israel from 'overreacting', and straining America's friendships in the Arab world. A secondary reason was America's shortage of militarily capable allies in the Middle East.

Israel has accepted this arrangement so long as it has deterred its enemies, but it has always reserved the right to think and act unilaterally. Without such means it has no way of ensuring that the Americans take its quest for survival seriously.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 06 Sep 2009 20:12

One of the interesting aspects of the current scenario for India is that on every front, we are heading trowards a stalemate.

When the establishment starts making indirect threatening noises towards potential military aggressors, it means the establishment is scared. It is then simply puffing up its feathers in an attempt to make the enemy believe that any adventure could be quite costly. But at the same time it also means that there are real perception behind getting scared. Does the GOI recognize that it is not keeping ahead of its enemies in military terms? The failure of the American military mcahine in AFG could also have prompted GOI to feel vulnerable. This means they had hoped for indirect cancellation of military disadvantage with alliance and support of US military.

On the TSP front, its back to square one - in spite of all the right noises at S-e-S. There will be no concrete move against terrorists and the TSPA+ISI+Taleb+militant nexus, in fact they will be encourgaed. India can do nothing about it, other than wait for the next attack.

On the PRC front, its back to square one - where the situation was in 1962. GOI does not think itself capable of rolling back PRC presence, and the negotiations and border talks are heading nowhere - as the Chinese have no need to concede anything.

Internally, the ideological vacuum imposed from the Nehru era to strengthen personality cults is not getting diluted. If anyone is gaining ideologically, it is the skillful utilization of this rashtra maintained vacuum by the proselytizing branches of the Abrahamics - as revealed in the degree of EJ-ization in the higher orders of establishment among certain states in the south. The affiliation of these branches to centres of authority outside the country in nations and regimes which have been traditionally involved in attempts at political and colonial control of India makes this even more dangerous.

The attempt at sourcing resistance to these trends based on Bharatyia roots, based within non-Abrahamic traditions have practically failed in the political sphere because the Hindutva forces which apparently tried to do a version of their own have been forced to retreat through a combination of political, rashtryia, and propaganda machinery. The retreat is a profound one, because, these forces have practically been forced to toe the rashtryia lines of not allowing the "Bharatyia" to come in the front in identity.

The rashtra on the other hand has not succeeded in reversing the basic trends of impoverishment of the economically lowest and numerically largest commons. There is still the evidence of speculative control of business networks of profiteers on the prices of consumption items of the vast majority.

This is a time of the rashtryia engine gradually grinding to a halt. What should be the steps to restart and redirect it?

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 06 Sep 2009 20:46

brihaspati wrote:
Internally, the ideological vacuum imposed from the Nehru era to strengthen personality cults is not getting diluted. If anyone is gaining ideologically, it is the skillful utilization of this rashtra maintained vacuum by the proselytizing branches of the Abrahamics - as revealed in the degree of EJ-ization in the higher orders of establishment among certain states in the south. The affiliation of these branches to centres of authority outside the country in nations and regimes which have been traditionally involved in attempts at political and colonial control of India makes this even more dangerous.

The attempt at sourcing resistance to these trends based on Bharatyia roots, based within non-Abrahamic traditions have practically failed in the political sphere because the Hindutva forces which apparently tried to do a version of their own have been forced to retreat through a combination of political, rashtryia, and propaganda machinery. The retreat is a profound one, because, these forces have practically been forced to toe the rashtryia lines of not allowing the "Bharatyia" to come in the front in identity.

This is a time of the rashtryia engine gradually grinding to a halt. What should be the steps to restart and redirect it?

Good post. The modernization project is putting pressure on the Bharatiya identity and keeping it in the background. The younger population is under free market indoctrination to discard the nationalistic view point.
Few articles in Foriegn affairs even talk about restlessness of the younger population and country unable to handle this.
There are various angle they are working on to change the internal balance

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Atri » 06 Sep 2009 21:38

brihaspati wrote:This is a time of the rashtryia engine gradually grinding to a halt. What should be the steps to restart and redirect it?



any object tends to continue its state of rest or uniform motion, unless acted upon by some external unbalanced force.

Alexander >> Chanakya/Chandragupta
Menander >> Pushyamitra
Rudrasimha >> Vikramaditya
Arabs >> Shankaracharya
Bahmani >> Vidyaranya Swami >> Harihara and Bukka
Mughals >> Marathas >> Sikhs

Harihara, Shivaji were backed by adverse climate as well.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Abhi_G » 06 Sep 2009 21:45

China+Pak+inimical western interests >> ?

Added later: The revival project started by the Sikhs and Marathas were cut short by the appearance of a totally new adversary, i.e., the brits. The nationalistic revival depicted by Aurobindo, Savarkar, Bhagat Singh, Bose and the countless youth were again thwarted. We are once again in the stages where the incomplete project stares at us in our eyes until we are once again rudely shocked out of our complacency.....
Last edited by Abhi_G on 06 Sep 2009 22:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 06 Sep 2009 21:47

True. I have broached the subject before of a possible attack and destruction of the north and that being a factor and cue in regeneration. But before that happens - during that old-style interval between the two halves of the movie in the halls - there is an opportunity to turn things around, changing the direction of the rudder. So that when currents start to flow again, the behemoth goes ina certain direction. Thats what I am looking for.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Atri » 07 Sep 2009 06:04

I think we should start integrating data about climate-change on BR... This is very very important phenomenon.. If Monsoon continues to be erratic and continues to decrease for longer time, the Indic resurgence will be pushed further behind..

http://news.in.msn.com/national/article ... id=3211192

How do we expect to see the resurgence of civilization, if glaciers start melting and Monsoon decreasing..

If moderators allow, we should have a thread especially dedicated to climate-change in history of India. The last major drastic decrease in monsoon resulted in desertion of IVC and SSC cities. It resulted in disappearence of Saraswati river.

It will be great if we correlate Brihaspati ji's 90-year cycle with whatever data is available about climate in that time-frame.

It should be followed concurrently that the projects of linking rivers with each other throughout the subcontinent has to be taken up and completed as fast as possible.. Culture should be given sufficient time to adapt before sh!t hits the fan.

We need Bhagirath... again...

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 07 Sep 2009 09:42

We could be entering a global mega dought that cycles in 1470 years. China has already shown the beginnings from the 1920's onwards, but it is not yet very strongly apparent. But it could take anywhere between 50 to 100 years to fully manifest. This time around, problem will be the possibility of a cold cycle coinciding at around 2190's - which could be an as yet uncalculable "ice age". But the buildup to that means erratic rainfall, and gradual drying up. The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation has decreased substantially..so things can get nasty. Problem is when! It could be a few decades by the pessimistic estimates or around 150 years by medium-optimistic calcs.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Raja Ram » 07 Sep 2009 12:26

From a strategic scenario perspective the assault on the priests at the Lord Pashupatiji temple in Nepal should not go unnoticed.

People have been talking about soft power and hard power. The system of having a cultural binding to the each other is age old in India. The linkages that exist between the Nepal's holiest shrine and South India is but an ancient link that has survived. It is also of tremendous significance. To India and Nepal both.

It goes into the very essence of the linkages between Nepal and India, not merely as two sovereign nation states, but civilizational. No means was it uni directional. The Nepal royal family has been accorded a similar access and a special significance in India as well. Not many know that the Royal family of Nepal has certain privileges that are unique to them in the Rameshwaram temple in South India for example.

The attack on the priests therefore by the Chinese cat's paw, the Maoists is to be viewed in this light and it must figure in the series of violations and aggressive actions mounted by the PRC against India in the recent past.

India can ill afford to view this as an internal matter of Nepal or dismiss it as a symbolic grandstanding by the Maoists there with a view to strengthen their image as the only custodians of Nepali independence and identity from "hegemonic" India.

Yet the GOI seems to be indifferent. No statements, no discreet but low key actions being taken to strengthen those who are opposed to Maoists. I had written earlier about my fears about adopting a policy of drift. The silence and virtual acquiescing by the GOI of this attempt to destroy the civilizational linkages is one more data point to this policy of drift.

Nepal is a laboratory for another plan of war by a thousand cuts. It is being planned and perfected by those who follow the ideology of communism. Let us not ignore the fact that the idea of India is as much an anathema to them as it is to the Islamists. To not take note of this will be at our peril.

Just a stray thought thought that cause me to ramble thus. Take it for what it is worth.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 07 Sep 2009 18:26

The GOI of the Congress variety has systematically distanced itself from anything remotely connected to the word "Hindu". It cannot afford to now reverse its position and take any steps that would make it look like as if it no longer has an "anti-Hindu" stance - if it comes out strongly against the treatment of "Hindu priests". This has consequences for its image inside the country as well as outside. It stands to lose a huge swathe of international proselytizing Abrahamic backing if it responds against the Nepal Maoists' atrocities on Hidnu priests. Second, it needs to suppress the news as much as possible - because the Congress and its national and international backers' mortal fear is a consolidation of the "Hindu" which could be slightly triggered by "outrage".

The official stance could also be the typical babudom excuse - that because this is baiting by proxy by the PRC, any overt response by the GOI will play into exactly what the Maoists and PRC wants, therefore no reaction.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 08 Sep 2009 04:24

All the moves indicate that countries are preparing to move on India. Pakistan may really be increasing its nuke arsenal. It can be used for many different tactical purposes. First PRC can simply be placing more of its own nukes in a tactical move to surround the north better. TSP+PRC can explode one or two in the north on occupied territory among people who are not trusted by the ruling regime - and claim either Talebs have done it or GOI has organized it. This then immediately becomes the excuse for TSPA+Taleb+militant+PLA move simultaneously from north and east into India.

PLA is increasing its dramatics in the east. This can be sign of a two pronged strategy as well as one of those proverbial "communist" power struggles. If a part of coordinated strategy to divert attention from internal crises, then the PLA is being instructed to up the ante to distract India from its western borders where PA is mobilizing forces and irregulars for action. On the internal struggle side, sections within the PLA itself can up the ante to provoke both the CCP and GOI into a military adventure.

In spite of the best efforts of IA, I am not sure it is equipped properly and more importantly that the GOI will not handicap IA actions until the last decisive and crucial moments. They have a very confused and ambiguous policy towards TSP and they do not yet have the clear target of erasing TSP a s a political entity - the only way to get rid of a permanent problem. The northern plains are vulnerable.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 08 Sep 2009 21:08

Raja Ram wrote:
Nepal is a laboratory for another plan of war by a thousand cuts. It is being planned and perfected by those who follow the ideology of communism.

Ideology of communism is a branch of the western evangelism and liberation theology

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 08 Sep 2009 21:25

Probably not a deliberate creation - but the result of internal competition for power and recognition - almost like say Protestantism from Catholic. The conflict of interest is an important component in understanding the relation between communism and Christianity and the western world.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby svinayak » 08 Sep 2009 21:30

brihaspati wrote:Probably not a deliberate creation - but the result of internal competition for power and recognition - almost like say Protestantism from Catholic. The conflict of interest is an important component in understanding the relation between communism and Christianity and the western world.

That conflict of interest which was there 100 years ago is no longer there. It is only in pockets and now communism seems to be adopted by evangelists to get their message.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 08 Sep 2009 21:52

I think EJ's are simply having a mutually beneficial relationship here with the reds, in China they are in conflict. The attitude is very similar to that in the early Islamists - use different tribes within the Judaic against a smaller isolated enemy. Once the erasuer of the enemy is complete they will turn on the erstwhile ally. The Islamists saw the Judaic as much as competitir for the same space in ideological dominance as the EJ's see in the communists. I don't think it is a sound alliance.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 09 Sep 2009 04:24

But what is surprising is that they (EJ+Red) do not realize every such step they take, forces the "moderates" among the "Hindu" to the wall, and goes against their own strategic interests?

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby RoyG » 09 Sep 2009 07:00

brihaspati,

How will we know when dharmists are finally pitted against the wall? Do you see a consolidation ever taking place in Nepal? I mean you'd think this huge backlash would happen by now especially with all the communal violence, terrorism, ethnic and religious cleansing (NE, Kashmir, Bangladesh, Pakistan), etc. Could a joint offensive by pakistan and china serve as a catalyst?

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 09 Sep 2009 07:42

the backlash takes time to gather momentum. We have lost three generations of the most active responders to direct confrontation with the rashtra, and one generation to migration. The first wave in the 20th century was basically lost in 1905-1915, then in 1935-45, then 1965-1975. The generation of 1995-2005 is of course split between migration and fallout of Babri. Revolutions are something I am most reluctant about - for inevitably they remove the most dedicated, selfless ones through conflict as such people rare to be in the frontlines. Post revolutionary societies are always thinner in dedicated people and are fertile breeding ground for opportunists to fill up the blanks. 2025-2035 is the next generational frustration point. But thinsg can get speededup if TSP+PRC really make their moves, even in small barking or growling ways.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Raja Ram » 09 Sep 2009 08:57

brihaspati,

One should also note that in India revolutions are almost always evolutionary and spans generations. Revolution as per western constructs has never happened. Whenever there has been an attempt to enforce a complete change, it has been momentarily accepted and almost immediately the new system is slowly changed and reduced to a complete new entity and integrated into the old system.

So the trick was to ensure that the new system considerably alters the underpinnings of the old system. The guys who got this right and succeeded to an extent were the British. They were successful in launching an attack on the very bastion of the old system - call it sanatana dharma or Indic or whatever. They attacked the primacy of this in the classes that were supposed to be well versed in it and created a shackle in the minds. It is this shackle that has remained till date in some shape or form and been the most difficult to get rid of.

This is my take. Of course, I lack the depth and width of vision and knowledge that you have on such matters. So I may be wrong.

These days I am veering to a point of view that just as the outside world is poised for a dramatic change and shifts so too is the internal situation in India. If by some way, the shackles on the minds of Indians are broken and they once again think from an Indian perspective and view the world thus, the resurgence of India can happen. If the shackles in the mind are not broken and we are always going to look and react to this world on the basis of what other do or say, then we may not see the resurgence happening.

In a way, Swami Vivekananda had already to twin tasks of nation building, namely, the Rediscovery of the Indian way of thinking and assimilating it into proactive service to get rid of all the ills facing the country.

Just my thoughts

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Prem » 09 Sep 2009 09:08

Raja Ram wrote:brihaspati,

In a way, Swami Vivekananda had already to twin tasks of nation building, namely, the Rediscovery of the Indian way of thinking and assimilating it into proactive service to get rid of all the ills facing the country.

Just my thoughts

He said his job was to move the stuck wheel of Indian thinking which will gain momentum onlee for next 500 years . If its a evolutionary process , then it has been 100 years of slow beginning , in the very first gear , the sprouting of old seeds and should pick up speed in next 50 years to run in top gear.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Pranav » 09 Sep 2009 09:26

brihaspati wrote:The GOI of the Congress variety has systematically distanced itself from anything remotely connected to the word "Hindu".


Yes, this news about what's happening to Indics in Delhi reinforces that view (thx to Stan for posting this earlier):

Delhi Hindus Must Obtain License For Durga Puja, Ram Leela
http://www.hinduismtoday.com/modules/xp ... ram-leela/
Hindus in Delhi will now be required to obtain a license from the Delhi police to perform Ram Leela or public puja such as Durga Puja. According to the latest directive issued by the licensing department of Delhi police “The season of festivals is coming soon. It is mandatory to get license for Pooja from a competent authority.” Many Durga Puja committees and Ram Leela Committees have had to abandon their plans to perform Puja/Ram Leela this year due to the very complicated and expensive procedure to obtain the required license. A committee must make an affidavit and submit a NO OBJECTION Certificate from Local Police, DDA, Traffic Police, Chief Fire Officer, Electricity Inspector, Entertainment Tax Officer, etc. Security must be arranged by puja committees from their own sources and should not be less than airport security in any manner.

Even to merely show a Ramayan TV serial on a big screen, a Ramleela committee must now go through many formalities, including obtaining a certificate from the film censor board and depositing US$12 per day. Just last Monday, the Lt. Governor of Delhi had assured the meeting delegates of Ramleela/Durga Pooja Committees that any such complications would be withdrawn.

[HPI correspondent Rajiv Malik adds: This is something unprecedented. This kind of licensing has never been required for holding these religious events. Certain permissions from local authorities would have been required, but this procedure for all organizers is new.]


What's all this about certificate from film censor board. Sounds really Stalinist. Does anybody know if it is illegal to make a film with your camcorder, and show it in public on an LCD projector?

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 09 Sep 2009 17:23

Raja Ramji,
please do not embarass me! My knowledge is insufficient. Only my passion sometimes crosses into arrogance.

The internal overnight switching over from the passive mode to the active mode has become difficult now - because our "gurus" have compromised, and used their spiritual prestige to channelize the Bharatyia passion into a safe-for-the-rashtra and safe-for-rashtryia-masters-foreign-masters purely "spiritual" quest that is totally disjoint and even anti political mobilization.

The terms of this demand have first been set by the British and then continued by those to whom the British transferred power to. The energies of the core are carefully pushed through this format and the Bharatyia now has come to the point where it has become a crime to source political mobilization from within "spiritual" quest. The Bharatyia is especially pressurized to channelize his spiritual drive, if at all socially, then only in "charity" but never ever politically.

Vivekananda's times were such that overt political action would have been nipped off by the unchallenged power of the British imeperium at that stage. But such circumstantial restrictions have now been institutionalized - so that Vivekananda is the excuse to restrict the Bharatyia completely and strictly away from political reassertion. This peeling away of historical circumstances in which particular strands of spiritual organization has developed, is important to release the Bharatyia spirit from the outside imposed and elite accepted shackles.

Those who stand in the way of Bharatyia reassertion that goes politically and spiritually - simultaneously, in any form, either through channelizing into pure charity (charity that does not simultaneously demand conformity and enhancement of Bharatyia goals - yes, yes, all those high philosophies of "daanam" will be touted) or through pure "spiritual quests" that are steeped in rituals and immersion in personality cults - are the enemies of Bharatyia revival. Spiritual gurus who do not contribute towards political self-reassertion should be deemed to be possibly unknowingly virtual agents of anti-Bharatyia rashtryia and foreign elements.

Any new Vivekananda must be political. With a singleminded life goal of simultaneous cultural, political and military reassertion of the Bharatyia. Nothing short of that is acceptable. Nothing more is needed.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 09 Sep 2009 17:38

pranavji,
the Delhite organizers of religious functions should not complain - they helped elect the Congress gov into power. What was the excuse - "development"? So "development" should compensate for such "minor" frustrations?

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Pranav » 09 Sep 2009 17:54

brihaspati wrote:pranavji,
the Delhite organizers of religious functions should not complain - they helped elect the Congress gov into power. What was the excuse - "development"? So "development" should compensate for such "minor" frustrations?


Brihaspati ji, I would not be so certain that the election results indeed reflect the will of the people. Long thread about EVMs in the Technology and Economy forum.

But yes, the people are pretty ignorant about the psy-ops and the larger forces that are at play.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby rkirankr » 09 Sep 2009 18:02

I have a question please try to answer without being Jingoistic
How would the Indian defense apparatus react if china and paki both declared war on India at the same time.
Indian defence forces may be very efficient in taking on one at a time, but if the two attack how is it going to be? Has there been any analysis by experts which is available to aam janta ?
No do not take me as scare monger or something like that , this scenario gives the nightmares. Even defending against only china (as against capturing chinese territories or tibetan territories) is I think within the capabalities of IA, IAF and IN.
I feel in the next war there will be more active cooperation between the two.
Any thoughts from the gurus?

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby brihaspati » 09 Sep 2009 18:22

not a guru! However, I think we have considered the possibility many times. In fact any move by any one of them will be coordinated with the other. The IA will do its best, but they are not fully equipped to tackle both fronts simultaneously. In fact, there will be three fronts - on the west, north on HP, and the far NE. They can play arround in harassing and harrying. Only indirect pressure from Russia and the USA can perhaps balance things a bit. But then the war scenario will only happen when these two factors are not working.

As it stands, the northern plains are vulnerable and not defensible against a combined attack. It is too wide a front, with an extremely long frontal line, and relatively small enclosed inner depth. The enemy if combined, can pick off from all directions. However, one crucial link that would unbalance the PRC+TSP plans, is if IA cuts off the entrance to the Valley from the TSP side. I think this is the reason, TSP is strengthening this area under the excuse of getting a grip on Swat and putting possible nuke resources around.

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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Postby Abhi_G » 09 Sep 2009 18:31

^^^^

In western media US-UK news sites (BBC, PBS) the whole state of J&K are not shown as parts of India. Northernmost parts of India start from Punjab and Himachal Pradesh. Previously, the parts of J&K within the LAC were shown. In google map, Arunachal was shown as a part of China and now it is an independent entity. Yesterday, MIT announced a speech by Montek Singh Ahluwalia (Chief Planning Commission) and in their front page website (which is no longer there), they had curiously concealed J&K on the map of India, by one of those board pins. I wrote en email in protest that this is a blatant misrepresentation. They replied that the map was not politically motivated and "Assam has not been represented". So can one infer anything regarding the fact that the role of US involvement will be at best ambiguous? Do these cartographic misrepresentations of India mean something?


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