RamaY wrote:Chiron ji
I do not have any military credentials whatsoever, but cannot see logic in some strategies.
For example; the claims that terrain doesn’t allow any (Indian or enemy) “army column to move horizontally in sync”. Then how did India lose POK to Pakistan and how did it gain control of Siachin?
Yes the costs are immense. But our enemies are willing to bear that cost if they can severe Indian connection with Himalayan and CAR regions. What should India do?
If India, with its 9th largest military budget in the world and more than million soldiers cannot defend its borders on one or other pretext, who else can?
Surinder wrote:I actually had the same question: if it is impossible to fight why is it impossible only for India? how come TSP took the lands in 1948? And PRC in 1962? If it is impossible, then shouldn't Indian J&K (whaterver is left of it) be also immune to any attack? So that should be no anxiety on that front.
RamaY ji and Surindar ji,
I guess, RayC ji has elucidated upon the comment with much more authority and experience. Although I have no experience of serving in armed forces, a quick glance at the map of both these regions will help us answer the question.
It is neither China's interest nor ambition to occupy any of the Indian heartland territory. The war (from their side) will start and aim only at earning some diplomatic chips for future bargaining. The aim here is unhindered chinese access to IOR and isolation of India from CAR.
Given the infrastructure which is already in place on Chinese side of territory, the movement of army column is much more easier. Infrastructure development on Indian side has started quite late we are at least 5-6 years behind the Chinese. This may or may not act to our benefit simply because it will be progressively difficult for the Chinese to march on Indian territory.
When an entire front of 200-300 miles moves in sync in the enemy territory, the capture is complete. In Northern Areas, Aksai Chin, Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, this thing is impossible. The invaders will have to attack in terms of platoons or companies and not in regiments and divisions. Again, lack of artillery cover-fire makes the movement of infantry expensive in terms of lives.
Yes, we should defend our boundaries and sovereignty. But, it can either be done by indulging in Dharma-Yuddha or Koota-Yuddha. Dharma-Yuddha will be retaliating and fighting in Aksai-Chin without opening any other front. Koota-Yuddha will be to make a thrust in Myanmar and a Naval thrust beyond Singapore while blocking off all the Chinese supplies in IOR. If India overthrows the military Junta in Myanmar, the Burmese Janata will almost definitely welcome this change. This permanently dislodges China from Bay of Bengal, all the way beyond Singapore. The invasion may as well continue in Yunnan province of PRC. In this case, even India will earn some bargaining chips. This is dangerously close to middle-kingdom and Chinese heartland. The loss of civilian lives and property in Yunnan will be much more severe for China than the loss of same in Aksai-Chin and Ladakh for India. It is easier to open a huge front in this region with a huge army column moving in sync without straining the logistics too harshly as it would while advancing in Aksai-Chin, Northern Areas and Ladakh.
Of course, it will be unwise to give-up the precious J&K and isolate the nation from CARs, but given the cost-benefit ratio which is currently in favour of Chinese, this move can seriously shift the equilibrium on Indian side.
Hence, Bhaarat should fanatically improve the roads and related infrastructure in meghalaya, Manipur, tripura, mizoram, Assam and Arunachal; and start talking more positively with both Burmese Junta and people. The positions of advantage on Himalayan frontier have already been occupied and fortified by Indian and Chinese armies. It will be immensely expensive to invade through that wall. Fighting China in Arunachal, Aksai Chin, Sikkim is playing the game on their terms. Fighting them in Yunnan and IOR is fighting the war on Indian terms. They are dangerously close to our heartland hence the frantic reactions from India. Bhaarat can hit their heartland, the middle kingdom, via this route.
Just remember the scene when Shivaji killed Afzal Khan.
Edit - It would be interesting to see the infrastructure in place on Myanmar-PRC border.