India Nuclear News And Discussion

[abhischekcc]

sanku,

somnath never argues points which he knows he is on a sticky wicket. He will simply ignore those points and provoke you into reacting to something else. Not only is he well read, he is also extremely well trained propaganda artiste.

Reminds me of someone else if you know what I mean.

[SRoy]

We don't need H-Bomb for minimal credible deterrence.

This type of motherhood statement is to be accepted as policy? On what basis you said that? Tomorrow someone will say we don't need a blue water Navy.
JLN once said Army is not required in independent India, police forces are enough. You statement adds to such tyoe of foot in the mouth acts.

In the 98 test the warhead design was 200 megaton which was restricted to 48 Megaton for the testing purpose . (a village was 5 km in proximity)

WTF? I think you need some reading on what was tested in Pokhran - II. Kindly don't post about something just pulled out of your musharraf. A wrong unit of measurement repeated identically twice is not a typing mistake, its ignorance.

Another contradiction apparent in your post, your are not aware, (obviuously due to ignorance, BTW nothing to do with Pokhran-II tests) is that Megaton class bombs are thermonuclear ones.

[ShauryaT]

Before this thread goes to a redux, will request some to go through the following link.
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewforum.php?f=8

Some here have no idea of the passions this issue can revive.

[Amber G.]

Last week's IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety, in Vienna, Below is the statement in behalf of Indian delegation from Sri Banerjee, (Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission and the Leader of the Indian delegation)
http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Meetings/P ... _india.pdf
Excerpts .. (read the whole doc, if interested)

...Nuclear power is undoubtedly a clean source of energy, which can sustain global economic growth by meeting energy needs particularly in the developing world, while adequately addressing global warming and climate change concerns. The improved performance and enhanced safety features in nuclear power plants over the last two and half decades had contributed to a large extent for the public acceptance of the viability of nuclear power. Following the event in Japan, many countries including
India, have expressed their commitment to further strengthen safety in
nuclear power and reiterated their decision to pursue their planned nuclear programmes. Let us build on the lessons learnt from this accident to take nuclear safety to higher levels which can also take into account natural calamities of particularly large magnitudes....

[GuruPrabhu]

In the 98 test the warhead design was 200 megaton which was restricted to 48 Megaton for the testing purpose ...

Let's not get carried away.

[Amber G.]

^^^ GP Above, obviously is a typo. Obviously he meant KT (instead MT)

[gakakkad]

I meant kiloton. I am aware of nuclear weapons and their designs . No bomb of 200 M Ton of TNT has ever been made . I am no fan of MMS . And the nsg waiver has nothing to do with mining contracts or whom should we buy Uranium from. It has nothing to do with how much we allot to Indian mines. The deal per Se is neither good nor bad . It is how we use it . The deal in itself is not castrating . The deal has nothing to do with MMS as it was conceived before the upa abbreviation was even coined . All the waiver says is that we are allowed to be a part of nuclear commerce . And it does not restrict us to buy from US . We need not buy a single reactor from US .And no one from IAEA can even put his toe nail on the non safe guarded indigenous reactors or military reactors for inspection . Buy all means we should develop our naval and other capabilities. And I am sure that the opportunity to test will present itself in the future . And they cannot do anything to prevent research and development in nuclear field . Having said that I agree that the deal can have a negative impact because of the tendencies of Indian govt to be bought off buy foreign powers .

I know a good deal about nuclear science , engineering and commerce. Please do not over react to an obvious typo . If you read about pokhran you ll realise that the 2 stage devise was a 200 kt warhead design restricted to 48 kt for testing purpose . And indeed there was a village within 5 km . It may have yielded 30 kt as per seismic records .Or may even have been more . The damage to villages was unexpected. We tested 4 designs (5 tests in total) in kargil . A plutonium based device . Sub kt triggers of boosted fusion . And a double stage thermo nuclear device. And everyone know that we made a policy mistake then . We should have tested more designs and retested the H- Bomb then and then itself . I respect what Sethna said a month before he died. What he meant was that we should have tested more when we had the opportunity.
Lets not get too emotive and aim for each others musharrafs or man mohans . And even without the deal we were not going to test @ this point.

[GuruPrabhu]

I know a good deal about nuclear science , engineering and commerce. Please do not over react to an obvious typo . If you read about pokhran you ll realise that the 2 stage devise was a 200 kt warhead design restricted to 48 kt for testing purpose . And indeed there was a village within 5 km . It may have yielded 30 kt as per seismic records .Or may even have been more . The damage to villages was unexpected. We tested 4 designs (5 tests in total) in kargil.

it is 400% difficult to distinguish typos from carelessness from ignorance. Why not pay attention to what you type?

[amit]

Here are some meaningful points and not a hatchet job of taking one arbitrary line and spinning it to high heavens.

Manmohan Singh has thus jeopardised the country’s strategic nuclear security — because the 1998 thermonuclear test was a dud, absence of further testing will translate into unproven, unreliable, and unsafe fusion weapons and a strategic deterrent lacking in thermonuclear credibility, and ignored the home-grown solution for energy independence, envisaged by Bhabha, based on interlocked first stage pressurised heavy water reactors, second stage breeder reactors (now in the take-off phase), and third stage thorium reactors (the prototype ‘Kamini’ 40MW experimental operating in Kalpakkam, which requires more concept, design, and engineering work and upscaling).

Instead, Manmohan Singh’s purchasing 40 foreign reactors worth $150 billion (at today’s dollar value) producing 40,000 MW of electricity by 2050, will at once sustain the nuclear industries in America, France and Russia, and provide Washington the handle to keep India in line. Resumption of testing, say, will prompt immediate cut-off of uranium fuel, resulting in rapid shutdown of foreign reactors and precipitous fall of power in the grid

.

So I suppose those two bolded points are some new epoch making observation by BK which he has never made before?

Sorry I used respect BK's writing, now I'm not too sure. He expects that in 2050 US would be still the world hegemon and that France and Russia will just simply fall in line to US diktats to stop supply of Uranium to what will then be the world's third largest economy - with the US being the world's second largest.

I hope guys here note this point: by 2050, heck by 2025 India's economy would be significantly larger than those of Russia and France. And bilateral trade between those two countries and India would not be just restricted to nuclear reactors and uranium. An arbitrary choking off of uranium supply by these two won't provoke a reaction from India?

And despite that the Russians and the French will jump through the hula hoop the moment US cracks the whip? Give me a break, there's a limit to credulity, even if it's the great BK.

And excuse me but can someone tell me please how many of these 40 reactors are going to be sourced from the US of A? I would be much obliged.

Analysis such as this made in a vacuum taking today's prevalent geo-political situation and extrapolating it to 40 years down the line without factoring in trend changes that are visible even today, make for good propaganda material but other than that has little use.

I've asked this question before, I'll ask again: Can anyone guess why everyone including the US of A is mum about blatant proliferation of nuclear and missile tech to Pakistan by China? Remember their latest tactical missile, Naser (or is it Nisar?) can be just as much a threat to the coalition forces in Afghanistan as it is to India? I'll give you a hint: Look up GDP and trade balance.

Another point where BK doesn't impress me is he talks about 40,000 MW - that's a number (along with the 40 reactors) he's used before. He doesn't want India to get these 40 reactors but he doesn't tell us where the alternative 40,000 MW would come from? I wonder maybe he's a secret admirer of Medha Pathkar and her ideal of returning to a village life-gobar gas existence. Maybe we should all do it. BRF can convene not in a server situated half way across the world but under the big Banyan tree in the village square.

Somnath was right in ignoring the same old same, same from BK.

[somnath]

The truth is that MMS has been the biggest enemy of India's independence in nuclear power and weapons. He destroyed domestic uranium mining by refusing to allocate funds to it when he was FM. Then, this lack of domestic uranium mining was held up as an example of how domestic uranium mining has 'failed' and how India desperately needs to bow to west to fulfill its uranium needs. And while this nuclear deal drama was going on, MMS refused to talk to countries that offered uraium without preconditions (IIRC, Kazakhastan and an African country, perhaps Nigeria). If that does not sound like treason, what does?

Amazing imagination used to bridge large gaps in facts and data! So MMS had a premonition of a potential nuclear deal with the US 11 years in advance! And hence blocked funding to nuclear mining in 1991..Not just that, he also had the same premonition that he will be the PM in 2005, and that George W Bush will be POTUS! In the pantheon of CTs, this should take a very lofty position...

On second issue (bolded out), again as fantastic as it gets...Without the NSG waiver, no 2 bit African/Central Asian country would engage in regular nuke trade with India...As noted in a post above, such exceptions are few and far between - Russia (Tarapur 2001, Kudunkumlum), China (Chashma 1-4)..It requires enormous political capital of the seller to push through one-off transactions like them.....Regular trade? Out of question - even Russia clearly told us about Kudunkulum 3/4 that it would depend on an NSG waiver.....

What actually happened was that parallel 123-type agreements were being negotiated with various countries, and we gave a little more time to the US process to get over, given the massive amounts of political capital being spent by them on the issue...As it happens, we now have agreements with a host of countries, while commercial deals with the US are still stuck at various stages..

Of course, if one asked what "preconditions" are laid down for fuel trade now - it would be too much, isnt it?

[amit]

^^^^^^

This talk about MMS destroying domestic mining in 1991 is one of BRF's favourite CTs. He was FM then and not PM. And the priority then was something different if anyone cares to remember those days.

What is also amusing is that as part of the CT, folks have convinced themselves that MMS had no hand to play in the liberalisation of the economy and PVNR as PM was responsible for whatever gains were made during that period. I'm fine with that but interestingly if PVNR was such a strong PM then how is it that MMS is solely responsible for "destroying the domestic mining industry"? I mean one should at least blame PVNR as well, na? Even though he's a folkhero here!

PS: Just to put it on record I have deep respect for PVNR and I personally think he has been the best PM that India has had since Independence. However, in the case of liberalisation both PVNR and MMS should get equal credit - MMS for developing the policy and PVNR for backing him to the hilt despite opposition from within the party, legislature and industry (remember Bombay Club and Gurumurthy saab and Swadeshi Jagaran Manch, cira early 1990s?)

[GuruPrabhu]

... if PVNR was such a strong PM then how is it that MMS is solely responsible for "destroying the domestic mining industry"? I mean one should at least blame PVNR as well, na? Even though he's a folkhero here!

DAE is run by PMO. FM is not at all involved.

[gakakkad]

In all probability we would exceed the americans economically in 2030s By 2050 we might even be the largest . AS the chinese bubble may bust anytime soon . And the 9-10 % growth that we have is actually below potential . When business conditions and infra improves we may grow in excess of 15 % for atleast a decade. In 2030s we might be the ones threatening countries with sanctions . And we can test our designs over shanghai and beijing then .

[hshukla]

Questions to the gurulog....
1] I have heard that our indigenous Thorium cycle technology will result in a reactor which will produce more Uranium than which is required to initially prime it...right?

2] If yes, than can the above Uranium be harvested and used in other traditional reactors which we are building now?
If so then we will be future proof from "Uranium supply sanctions" that BK talks of in his article.

Also some forum members talk of India having a huge enough GDP by 2025 to be sanctioned(too large to be sanctioned )....point we are missing out is that to reach that stage, India should remain strong enough to deter an attack on itself. So the needs for a strong N deterrent is till we reach the the stage of huge GDP not so much after that. Dilli abhi door hai

[somnath]

^^^There is a lot of material in open source on the thorium fuel cycle (including tons of stuff posted by Amber G and GP in recent times here)...

But, on this..

Also some forum members talk of India having a huge enough GDP by 2025 to be sanctioned(too large to be sanctioned )....point we are missing out is that to reach that stage, India should remain strong enough to deter an attack on itself. So the needs for a strong N deterrent is till we reach the the stage of huge GDP not so much after that

GDP is actually a metaphor in this context, rather than a number...India, by all available indications, will be a far more "powerful" (by all measures of state power) country by 2025...Given the primacy of economic muscle these days, GDP is a good proxy to depict that...

But while on the topic, thsi whole business of "castration" of strategic capability post nuke deal needs to be examined...Barring the decommissioning of Cirus, and putting under safeguards of some power plants, what is the whole business around "castration"? Is there any evidence that production of fissile material has been slowed down post the nuke deal? We have evidence (from Srikumar Bannerjee, again) that the U enrichment facility in Ratnahalli has been expanded many times over, and there are plans to add-on massively to that capacity...

We have discussed this before, but most estimates of Indian bomb stockpile is based on estimates of WgrPu stocks...There are credible references that we have the capability to fashion nukes out of RgrPu as well...And our RgrPu stocks? Well, whichever estimate is taken to be correct, its huge...

If anything, in the last 4-5 years, there has been a massive forward movement in the key variable in the deterrence matrix, ie, delivery systems...Bharat Karnad himself identified that as the key drawback in his book on Indian nuclear posture in 2008 (where he said that Indian missile production rates lags behind Pak's!)...By all available accounts, that is being addressed...From the 42 "specially configured" Su30s ordered to induction of Agni III to a public declaration on hastening the Agi V programme - there is no evidence that policymakers are blase on the issue at all...

Which leaves only one point, the old one about the validity of the "thermonuclear" bomb success in Shakti....It is a separate topic of discussion, but comes back to the issue on testing...As covered in the post above, presumably, if policymakers really thoguht it would be so important, they can go ahead and test! The nuke deal has nothing to prevent that!

[gakakkad]

@ Hersh

Thorium in itself is not fissile . The key idea here is to get u 233 which is fissile .
Bombardment of neurton to Th 232 produces Th 233 which beta decays to Pa 233 (protactinium ) which beta decays further to for u 233 .U 233 is fissile. Since Th in itself is not fissile some u 235/u233 or plutonium is needed to initiate the cycle .The answer of your question is yes . Because a smaller amount of fissile material is needed to achieve criticality of the reactor the u 233 produced is more then the fissile material that goes into initiating the reaction .

Once criticality is achieved we can also also achieve a closed loop cycle ie some of the 233 produced in the reaction with thorium can be fabricated as a fuel rod . Due to u232 which is actively disintegrating.

An excellent review of thorium fuel extraction.

http://www.barc.ernet.in/publications/e ... %209/9.pdf

this will give chaddi shivers to all chinalurks and paklurks .

http://www.barc.ernet.in/publications/e ... %206/6.pdf

All the controversy around enrt was useless .We have the requisite tech already . Their is not much that anyone can offer us. Besides fuel cycle has been a much less financed topic internationally due to disarmament politicians . After 74 tests us actually stopped commercial companies from the fuel business. When something remain in gov't domain only growth in technology is especially retarded.

Regarding your second question about us being attacked , if u follow the millitary threads closely we have the most extensive defence modernization program in the world . No country in the world will have the capacity to attack us in 2025 without destroying there own economy. The only country insane enough to attack us is tsp . By 2025 our defence budget will equal there whole gdp . And I have very serious doubts that they have usable nuclear weapons . The highest recorded yield of their test was 8 kt . Besides they have uranium based devices . u might talk about the increasing reactors in tsp . But to gain the much publicised load of plutonium quickly is a physical impossibility . And we have taken SLIMES and ddms more seriously than we should have.

[Hari Seldon]

From twitter

Kakodkar calls NSG guidelines betrayal, Yashwant says PM misled Parliament

Oh, I reasonably expect at least some with unusual comprehensions to pickup the word 'Yashwant' from the above headline and launch into a diversionary diatribe on how he's been the worst post-reform FM and all that. Still, against hope I hope that dhaga will stay on message rather than on the messenger but that maybe too much to hope for, perhaps. Time will tell, of course.

[somnath]

Yashwant Sinha continues to display his utter mediocrity, and BJP its utter hypocrisy in the nuclear debate (it was only a couple of weeks back that Arun Jaitley was in the US asking US nuke companies to invest in India, assuring them that the Nuke Liability Law was a "reasonably fair" one! Someone should have reminded him that the discussion started with the conclusion of the nuke deal..)...

The bloomers from YS..

It was clear all along that the transfer of ENR technologies was subject to a separate agreement

Really? Only ENR tech? Presumably U fuel, reactors, and everything else comes in through automatic divine channels post NSG waiver? No agreements need to be reached with different countries? MAybe we wasted our time negotiating separate agreements with dozens of different countries. And of course, maybe we should take Australia to court (or NSG ) for having completely ignored NSG guidelines for trade in non-ENR tech with India!

contingent upon India setting up a separate facility to reprocess the spent fuel of imported reactors

Wow..So YS actually thought that the "civil nuclear agreement" and "waiver" from NSG is about supply of weapons related tech! Imported ENR facilities should be outside "safeguards"...Hmm....

The Hyde Act was clear that it will not permit non-NPT countries to access ENR technologies.

Of course, the US does not trade in ENR tech - means that everyone else is subject to US laws in trade with India?

At best , the ENR development is a case of collateral damage to India for something that was being discussed in NSG for a long time..At worst, the US tried a cute diversionary tactic to comply with commitments it made domestically to get the 123 agreement ratified...Either ways, treating this as anything bigger than what it is, is well, just politics...As explained in earlier posts, the ENR business was always problematic, and India lived with it through ambiguous legalese...The idea was, once the bigger picture is clarified, when it comes to the crunch, our dollars would take care of irritants like these...Its time to make the dollars count! Someone should be asking the govt on the status of our negotiations with the French on Jaitapur! And whether ENR is included in that...

But of course, Jaitapur is nukes...Horror! How can we deal in such dangerous stuff, after Fukushima?! Ahem, then, well, maybe we should "voluntarily" renounce nukes altogether..then, well, why cavil over minor roadblocks on ENR?!

[svinayak]

When is this going to stop.

[negi]

Yay ! today we celebrate super comprehension day.

[JwalaMukhi]

Oh, I reasonably expect at least some with unusual comprehensions to pickup the word 'Yashwant' from the above headline and launch into a diversionary diatribe on how he's been the worst post-reform FM and all that.

Hari Garu, right on cue.
Takes a bow.

Well, would the next stop be how the idol (Shri Kakodar) who was eulogized for all the projections into next 30 years to 50 years is going to be suddenly found to have his feet made of clay? Anyways, fully expect how Shri.Kakodar doesn't understand nuclear commerce completely and also about larger geopolitical influences of this complex saga, theme to dominate next.

[gakakkad]

Kakodkars statement has been taken out of context and merged with Yashwants . Please keep politics and restrict to only science and facts. Kakodkar said that any move by NSG to ban India from getting ENRT would be betrayal of some sort. He never said that the deal is bad .

heres what kakodkar said

http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/news/c ... kar/204024

Kakodkar readily acknowledges that the deal is about nuclear fuel and not technology .

http://news.rediff.com/report/2009/aug/ ... energy.htm

He was a very open advocate of NSG waiver . Please avoid flaming and name calling . When reporting media articles look @ the context . quite often they only report a segment of the interview that helps in creating hype. Like in case of undy tv .

@ somnath If we convince people that the deal will do India good before the results show on the ground than we deserve a special price.

PS - Lets not make this a bjp or con - gress issue . Its got far bigger implications .

[Theo_Fidel]

Thorium is not a new idea. The problem has always been getting it to work commercially. Performance in the real world has been pretty dismal. All the dozen different attempts around the world have been abandoned after serious under performance and complication after complication. Even now in India, after 50 years of research we havn't made much headway and even BARC admits the final cycle is a good 40 years+ away.

Here's a recent review.

Don't believe the spin on thorium being a ‘greener’ nuclear option

[GuruPrabhu]

LWRs are haraam. Thorium is haraam. ENR is haraam but desired.

Imported Oil is haraam but what to do onlee.

Imported Gas is halaal but goes through Af-Pak.

Solar/wind are halaal but not enough.

Gobar Gas is the most halaal answer. Jai Ho!

I recommend that we shut down DAE and convert BARC into a Gobar Gas Giant. We can then have a halaal 3G scam.

It would be poetic justice to make BC in charge of GG production. He may even contribute personally to the output.

[somnath]

@ somnath If we convince people that the deal will do India good before the results show on the ground than we deserve a special price.

PS - Lets not make this a bjp or con - gress issue . Its got far bigger implications .

The results of the key aim of the deal is already visible - just look at the PLF numbers of NPCIL.."Free" supply of fuel has meant that our reactors are operating @ never before levels of utilisastion...And every single nuke biggie i falling over each otehr to conclude contrcts with India...

About the "Cong v/s BJP" bit - its a shame really that BJP's position has been so cynical on this, officially...As Jaswant Singh himself said, the nuke deal is the culmination of a process started by ABV - with the grandiosely termed NSSP as the mid-way pillar...Heck, the nuke deal is a HUGE improvement over what the NDA gvovt was prepared to do - sign CTBT (Jaswant-Strobe talks), or put a far higher # of reactors under safeguards (BRajesh Mishra's offer)...This is right up BJP's own (admirable) instincts, but they shoose to continue playing petty politics with it...

[GuruPrabhu]

removed

[Tanaji]

but nuclear radiologist Peter Karamoskos, of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), says the world shouldn’t hold its breath.

Peter Rowberry of No Money for Nuclear (NM4N) and Communities Against Nuclear Expansion (CANE).

I think you are missing quotes from the following worthies, it would go a long way in adding value

• Michael Krepon
• Eric Margolis
• Prafool Bidwai

[gakakkad]

About the "Cong v/s BJP" bit - its a shame really that BJP's position has been so cynical on this, officially...As Jaswant Singh himself said, the nuke deal is the culmination of a process started by ABV - with the grandiosely termed NSSP as the mid-way pillar...Heck, the nuke deal is a HUGE improvement over what the NDA gvovt was prepared to do - sign CTBT (Jaswant-Strobe talks), or put a far higher # of reactors under safeguards (BRajesh Mishra's offer)...This is right up BJP's own (admirable) instincts, but they shoose to continue playing petty politics with it...

I do agree that the nsg waiver seems to be a big diplomatic victory . We do not know whom to give credit for the same . Anyway the opposition to the deal in India was staggeringly greater than that in other countries . It amazed me . Indian politicians by definition are hypocrites . BJP should have kept quite on the issue . Disclaimer - I disdain congress and am not a fan of manmohan as a pm . Though I am not a fan of BJP even. I do not wish to get into politics.

And you are spot on again . To us educated enthusiasts the benefits are clearly apparent . One of my class mates is hopeful to find jobs in private sector in India . To the common man results will be apparent when cost of electricity is reduced and there are fewer power cuts.

Last attempt to explain people on ENRT .

The indian constitution gives a right to practise any occupation . Supposing xyz wants to be a doctor and he does not get admission to medical college . Can he take them to court for violating the right to practise any occupation ? Hain ji ?

similarly nsg says its ok for countries to trade enrt with India . But if xyz country ( Unkil in this instance) refuses the trade the NSG cannot force them .


@ Theo - A nuclear radiologist basically is a medical doctor who is trained to read PET SCANS and gamma scans and bone scans . He is not a energy reactor expert . Though Technetium isotopes need fresh source directly from a reactor , that part is a job of a medical physicist . The source you referred to seems to be left winged environmentalists. I do agree that thorium reactors are a decade away . But the reason for them to be unpopular was completely different from what is mentioned. Thing is that U 232 IS ALSO produced when neutrons are bombarded to thorium . Now 232 is highly radioactive but not fissile . And there is no known chemical way of separating it from the fissile u 233 . Bottom line is that thorium reactors cannot be used to produce nuclear bombs . The raison d'etre of cold war era reactors was making weapons . Electricity generation could very well be considered an added benefit or secondary reason of making reactors in those days. And neither US nor USSR had any Uranium shortage . So they never needed to make a thorium based reactor. By 2030 thorium reactors should be commercially ready . overall the article was badly written with a lot of factual errors. even people commenting say so .

[GuruPrabhu]

Thing is that U 232 IS ALSO produced when neutrons are bombarded to thorium . Now 232 is highly radioactive but not fissile . And there is no known chemical way of separating it from the fissile u 233 .

I have read of attempts to remove Pa 233, thus separating U 233 before it is even produced.

Bottom line is that thorium reactors cannot be used to produce nuclear bombs

There is no such bottom line. Working with a gamma rich material makes life difficult, but not impossible.

[gakakkad]

@ Garu Prabhu Kudos !! Now this discussion is heading where it should head . the scientific and technical direction rather than the frivolous political and name calling direction.

If I invest in a thorium reactor I would do it for the sole purpose of energy generation . Making weapons out of it might be so difficult and expensive that you could call it "practically impossible" .
The IAEA coined the term " INTRINSIC PROLIFERATION RESISTANCE" for the thorium based cycle for this reason . I don't know whether you have come across this doc b4 but its an IAEA publication on thorium cycle . It is fairly exhaustive (> 100 pages )

http://www-pub.iaea.org/mtcd/publicatio ... 50_web.pdf

It was said in pop-sci sources that soviet union and us acquired enough nukes to destroy the world several times over . I have not bothered calculating if that is literally true . Because they surely had enough to cause devastating blow to life on this planet . The thing is that the current techniques give us more than enough to make weapons. And they are arguably lot simpler . The early separation of pa 233 would surely need very complicated engineering and design solutions. So it would be futile to attempt making a bomb out of thorium based reactors when we have proven techniques already. However using them for energy generation is certainly conceivable and advisable due to several favorable properties over Uranium (mainly abundance ) . Have a nice sunday .

[Theo_Fidel]

Thorium reactors are most definitely much more than a decade away. Even India has not even begun to construct one yet. We are at least 40+ years away. There is a thought process in India that this is because we are the only ones who are doing Thorium research, so it is cutting edge technology, etc. Nothing could be further from the truth. Thorium reactors have been tried a dozen times before by a half a dozen countries. All of them gave up as complication after complication came at them. And at the end the breeding ratio too was very very disappointing. Think about it, other than a few minor differences in the daughter products and moderator use, breeding Thorium is the same as Breeding U-238. And we have tonnes and tonnes of that stuff lying around, yes even we do. The PFBR is breeding U238 to U-233 using Pu. Even this U-238 has been tried dozens of times, but those who have tried even this breeding process have been very disappointed with the performance. It don't see that article as badly written, just a collection of peoples opinions on where Thorium is going, there is a lot of study behind those opinions. The reason Thorium is not followed is because it has proven to be commercially nonviable repeatedly. And it is not just a question of money and the price of energy. In a couple of them it was a question of how much energy you put in to how much energy you get out. I suspect this is the one that will get the PFBR too. Consuming more electricity than it produces. Your 2030 date is a pipe dream. They are right that Thorium is just a distraction.

With respect to U-233, it appears to always be contaminated with U-232, which makes it very radioactive and difficult but not impossible to reprocess. The question is whether it is worth the pain. Many have come to that particular fork in the road and decided it is not worth it. The attempts to remove Pa-233 were just that attempts. The final consensus appears to be that it is easier to just let it decay to U-233 within the fuel itself. In case of solid fuel the U-233 will have to then be processed to create fuel. The plan with molten salt reactors is that the U-233 can be burnt right away.

Finally your claim that Uranium was chosen over Thorium for nuclear weapons is quite wrong. Uranium was chosen because it alone has the fissile material required, namely U-235. Why go to all that trouble of separating out U-235 and then put it in a Thorium reactor when you can burn it all by itself. The Hanford site produced the majority of the US weapons plutonium from 2 reactors on site. Over 40 years it produced about 60 Tonnes of Plutonium, enough for 60,000 weapons. Commercial material was not really needed and sits in ponds all over the country. The US had about a 100+ different reactor designs and concepts going on in the 50's and 60's, up to and including Nuclear rocket ships. Thorium was just one of these. All of them were cut down to the 3-4 technologies commercially operating right now. The US navy works with many more designs.

[Theo_Fidel]

Meanwhile one little note on Kudankulam, March 2012 now. Having already spent about Rs 16,000 Crore (their estimate). Send more Money Please...

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/fea ... 153399.ece

The much-talked about Kudankulam nuclear power project is expected go on stream by March 2012, a 39-month delay from its scheduled completion date.

Even as an inflationary scenario has resulted in estimated cost of projects such as the one above going out of kilter, time overruns of the above scale, exacerbates the cost over-run. In the above case, the revised cost of Rs 15,824 crore is 20 per cent higher than the original cost. Not to mention the difficulties faced by the end-users of the 1000 MW(at least) of power supply that the commissioning would have generated.

[GuruPrabhu]

gakakkad,

Perhaps your world view is based on recent times. The U-233 weapons consideration I was talking about is what I read in the 70s. India did not have much Pu then.

[GuruPrabhu]

Think about it, other than a few minor differences in the daughter products and moderator use, breeding Thorium is the same as Breeding U-238.

Just thinking about it won't help. You also have to read. There is something called the eta factor.

And we have tonnes and tonnes of that stuff lying around, yes even we do

India's reserves of U are much less than Th. Bhabha wasn't a fool. He actually calculated stuff.

[GuruPrabhu]

Meanwhile one little note on Kudankulam, March 2012 now. Having already spent about Rs 16,000 Crore (their estimate). Send more Money Please...

This is what you get when you combine Russian Maal and Indian Public Sector. See stats below, for a total of 565 projects surveyed:

Of the 285 delayed projects, a whopping 41 per cent witnessed delays ranging between two and five years and about 14 per cent over five years. Clearly, longer the delay, higher the impact on the expenditure incurred in these projects. For instance, over a one-year period up to February 2011, inflation (as traced by the Wholesale Price Index) rose by 9.5 per cent suggesting that costs could have been impacted at least to this extent. Over a three-year period, the impact could have been significant as inflation rose by an absolute 24 per cent.

We need the French and US to accelerate construction.

[Theo_Fidel]

With the new mines we have on the order of 100,000 tonnes of U-238/235. These were not available to Bhaba. Times change. Question is one of technology now.

Eta is fancy way of saying how many neutrons are produced per absorption in fissile materials. U-233 is better but we don't have any of it yet remember. We do have Pu239 & U238.

The French are even further behind on their EPR's. Time delay of at least 60 months expected. Cost escalation of at least $4 Billion so far. After Fukushima likely to be even more. Total cost so far for 1,600 MW plant about $9 Billion so far. About Rs 40,000 crore. God help us.

[gakakkad]

theo saar . one correction . Th based reactors have already been constructed in India and are running. Though @ a smaller scale . turn to page 4 of the iaea document. Having said that we are not abandoning proven uranium based designs for thorium . We ll keep building uranium reactors till thorium based designs are perfected. By 2030 we have a very good chance of having close to 1 gw of thorium based energy. Though I agree that we should go for liquid designs .However BARC may have reasons for breeding thorium . I am a medical doctor and an enthusiast . BARC people surely know much better. yeah its costly .but we have no way out. In research u can always fail. fear of failure should not be a reason for abandoning thorium research . (or any other research for that matter).

I dont know if this has been discussed. But India along with eu , Japan and china has committed to money for ITER . (FUSION REACTORS) . We have a far far far better chance of achieving thorium dream than fusion .

[GuruPrabhu]

ok, it is once again time to ask "Who was Sita?"

BARC people surely know better.

That is a bad assumption on this dhagaa.

I dont know if this has been discussed.

You can safely assume that any and every nuke topic has been discussed on nuke dhagaa in something like 4-5 cycles. Just go back and read from about 1998 onwards.

A new cycle has just started. We have to once again examine the long term estimates for U vs Th because someone found some new U.

This is ground hog day.

[Theo_Fidel]

Its not a question of trying and failing. Some one once defined what trying the same thing again and again and expecting a different outcome was...
WRT commercial energy BARC record has been dismal. Doesn't matter what they think or how much IQ they have. Still a PSU.

[gakakkad]

Its not a question of trying and failing. Some one once defined what trying the same thing again and again and expecting a different outcome was...
WRT commercial energy BARC record has been dismal. Doesn't matter what they think or how much IQ they have. Still a PSU.

I am a capitalist and believe in privatization . Having said that some PSUS have done quite well (ISRO). It may not have been able as big an impact in energy production as it might have been expected too. Thats were the NSG waiver came in . And thats where the much increased private participation comes in . We must give Kakodkar and team due credit . They persisted in spite of decades of technology denial and more importantly lack of fuel . I can give you a huge list of american state owned enterprises that have done far worse . I have seen ridiculous and frivolous work being financed in Columbia univ and weil Cornell med centre. All in all Indian PSU S are nothing to be proud of . But ISRO or antomic energy corporation besides a few others have done exceptionally well.