RamaY wrote:^ This will be a litmus test for international structure.
The so-called sole-superpower insisted on going thru NSG and what not when it came to India's case. But another P5 member is bypassing (unless they can grandfather-in this issue) the process to support one failing states which is also sponsoring terrorism outside its borders.
India must warn the international community that this would set a wrong precedence and work closely with Russia and France on this issue.
Either USA would block it in NSG, in which case USA still considers itself the leader in 'nuclear non-proliferation' or the deal already has the blessings of USA, in which case it will go through, either through NSG or drive-through.
When China joined the NSG in 2004, they gave the exact scope of Chinese support to Pakistan's 'civilian' nuclear program. The present deal goes far beyond it. So it is not covered by the present arrangement. If they want a new deal, they have to either do it snubbing NSG or through NSG approval.
If they do it outside NSG, then the present system breaks down, unless China is thrown out of NSG and all Chinese suppliers in NSG block all nuclear supply to China. If they do it inside, USA loses its leadership and Iran can do whatever they want.
One take on this is that US has approved of this deal and it would go through NSG. China would not have brought this up, unless they were sure that it is possible.
So what does China give to USA: More sanctions on Iran
So what does Pakistan give to USA: OBL's head
So what does India get: Obama visit
The other take is that USA has given China the go ahead to take this up, for the sake of drama, and then do an about turn and tell the Pakistanis that the international community is not yet prepared to accept it. The US is willing to let this carrot dangle in front of the Pakistanis for a time, till Pakistan is willing to give up OBL and possibly Mullah Omar.
Obama wins! China wins more Pakistani sympathy!
It is useless for India to take this up vocally. If it doesn't go through, then it would be because of Western misgivings, and if they don't have misgivings, then it would go through regardless of what India says. It is widely known, what the issues here are. India does not add anything to it.