OK I highlighted the relevant parts of KS article here
K Subrahmanyam: Partnering with the US: Yes we can!
India is in a position to help sustain US pre-eminence in technological and economic spheres.
K Subrahmanyam / New Delhi November 18, 2009, 0:16 IST
A large number of commentators on Indo-US relations seem to think that when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meets President Barack Obama next week in Washington DC, the latter will not be able to match his predecessor George Bush’s enthusiasm for India. This baseless pessimism is based on the view that the US is compelled to be on cordial terms with China because of economic compulsions. It is argued that India will be one more important Asian country for the US, perhaps a little higher in priority than Indonesia, but will not get the attention it got from George Bush.
This view, widely shared both in the government and the media, is not surprising. Go back to the first week of July 2005 and look at media comments then on the PM’s proposed visit to the US, and you will not find very optimistic predictions of the summit outcome before the visit. There was a lot of cynicism about the summit outcome even weeks and months after the event. George Bush did not become popular overnight.
It is not my contention that November 24, 2009 will be a repeat of July 18, 2005. The world has, of course, changed. At that time the US was unquestionably the sole super power. China was a rising power whom the US wanted to be “tethered in Asia”, in the words of the then Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice. The US of George Bush promised to help India in its efforts to become a world-class power, presumably in an attempt to create a balance of power in Asia.
US efforts to get India accepted as a state with nuclear weapons — “a responsible state with advanced nuclear technology” — and its campaign to get India the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver in regard to the civil nuclear cooperation, were motivated by this consideration. Today, the US is perceived as a declining power in the wake of the financial crisis and China is seen as the second-ranking power striving hard to narrow the gap between itself and the US. Many Chinese and some Americans talk of a G-2 system of the US and China managing the international monetary system. China holds more than 800 billions of US dollar assets. The US expects China to continue to buy its treasury bonds. Predictions are that at current rates of growth, China will overtake the US as the world’s number one economy in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) in the next two-three decades. This situation is different from the one in July 2005, and the Indo-US summit has to address this reality.
China is modernising its military rapidly. Some Chinese talk of dividing the Pacific Ocean into two spheres of influence with the US. This will impact Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia.
During his election campaign, “candidate” Obama had said, “Having China as a banker is not good for US economy, it is not good for US global leadership. It is not good for US national security… History teaches us for a nation to remain pre-eminent military power, it must remain pre-eminent economic power.” Obviously, Obama would like the US to continue to be a pre-eminent economic, technological and military power even if it has to lose its place as the number one economy in terms of GDP.
Both Manmohan Singh and Obama believe that in the 21st century, knowledge will be the currency of power. China has four times the population of the US and is investing heavily in higher education and upgrading the skills of its population. Obama has warned fellow Americans that if they do not upgrade their education, they will have to face competition from Beijing and Bangalore. {Not the equal equal not noted by KS}
If the US is to sustain its pre-eminence, it needs partners. This is highlighted by the fact that in this year’s Nobel prize list, a majority are Americans, and a majority among them are immigrant Americans! President Obama has already recognised the value of this aspect of Indo-US partnership.
In a letter written last September to Prime Minister Singh, while still campaigning for presidency, Obama said: “We also should be working hand in hand to tap into the creativity and dynamism of our entrepreneurs, engineers and scientists to promote development of alternative sources of clean energy. Imagine our two democracies in action. Indian laboratories and industry collaborating with American laboratories and industry to discover innovative solutions to today’s energy problems. That is the kind of new partnership I would like to build with India as President.”
What is in India’s national interest? Surely an international system in which the pre-eminent power is a pluralist democracy and not a totalitarian one-party state. India too needs a partnership for its accelerated economic growth. China was able to grow at such a rapid pace after 1980 because Chinese “princelings” (sons of top military officers and apparatchiks) linked up with US multinationals and exploited the US as a market, using the ties with those multinationals.
For the US, India is an English-speaking, pluralistic and democratic country, home of immigrants who have already made a notable contribution to US scientific and organisational innovativeness in a short period of three decades. US companies have developed a significant number of R&D centres in India and their experience of offsourcing has been positive with reciprocal Indian job creation in the US.
While China is likely to face the problem of an ageing population, India will have a youth bulge in the next two-three decades with a potential to convert it into a very productive workforce. {Demographic dividend being offered to US as tribute. Most of the GOI officials were at the forefront of limiting Indian population and are now claiming credit for it and want to take advantage of it!}
The US is about to embark upon a major healthcare reform which, it is feared, will increase its budgetary deficit and public debt. A major tie-up between US drug firms and the Indian pharma industry can result in significant cost reductions. It is expected that environment industries dealing in clean energy generation and energy efficient products will come up in coming years. The two countries can work together in this field.
Economic recovery after the financial crisis will be marked by the emergence of new, innovative technologies. Indo-US collaboration and cooperation in these areas may lead to cost reductions and creation of new markets. In other words, India is in a position to help sustain US pre-eminence in technological and economic spheres.
Unlike in 2005, this time India is in a position to offer the US a partnership of mutual benefit, which will serve both Indian and US national interests and also serve the cause of democracy. Just as the Sino-US economic partnership of the past three decades benefited both countries, till the recent economic crisis set in, and aided China’s growth, an Indo-US economic and social partnership can also be of mutual benefit to both democracies.
This highlighting only confirms my earlier comments that the GOI officialdom is offering the Indian labor and intellectual capital as tribute to the US to what end I dont know. If this is the non-linear thinking that they spent ten months on no wonder its a mess. This approach is as linaer as it gets to ensure the caterpillar stays a worm.
It totally ignores the moves underway in Beijing as we write where the US is conceding primacy to PRC as a mediator between India and TSP and chastises India about non-proliferation when its PRC which violated the NPT repeatedly and after the fact allows TSP to transfer it regardless of who is affected.
Will e-mail author.
Before first was the fizzle.
First was the IUCNA deal.
Next this economic and social partnership.
Next will be Indian military forces as subalterns for the democratic Empire.
