Indian Missile Technology Discussion

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 21 May 2009 18:59

More from source - who also works with Express Group as a Defence Journo:

"Dear Sanjay,

Spoke to the DRDO officials..not a source, who said, "this was a training trial carried out by the Indian Army on our facility. We were not involved in the test as the army was trying it on different parameters, therefore the release that was sent to you was just three line.

As for whether a success or a failure...who called it a failure??? On what grounds??.

If you insist on knowing success or failure then just call the Indian amy and ask them."

This whole is verbatim."

For this source to claim Rout was never seen at any MoD briefing is adds to the mystery. Also, note he wrote only 1 article for the Indian Express. Curiouser and Curiouser.

If any of you are wondering why I am going through all this effort to figure out what's going on, it is because of how willing we all (including me) were to believe this single report of failure and to start drawing conclusion after conclusion on it.

Now it may transpire that Rout may indeed be right, but it's been over 48hrs since the test and not a single paper in print has run with a story confirming a failure after 127 seconds.

Vikram_S · Post by **Vikram_S** » 21 May 2009 20:47

Sanjay your source is credible and spot on. The PRO **is** Sitanshu Kar and yes it is true he is just direct with the answers

Thanks

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 21 May 2009 22:22

It just scares me how willing everyone is to believe the worst. Again, Rout could be right but as of now there is an outright denial by the MoD spokesman. But as you know DRDO bashers will be braying again about lies and cover-ups etc etc. If there was a crash and burn in 127 seconds, we would have known by now. I suspect there may be an accuracy issue - this is just a feeling not a fact - with the new guidance system.

sunilUpa · Post by **sunilUpa** » 21 May 2009 22:34

Sanjay,

I missed the news item about denial by MOD spokesman. Please post the link so that we can highlight it, otherwise these stories will take a life of their own.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 21 May 2009 22:43

Sunil - my apologies - I was refering to the denial when the MoD spokesman was asked about it by my source. Read above posts.

It is interesting that not a single newspaper has deemed the issue fit for investigation. I also think the MoD should say something, but I am led to understand that the report in the Hindu - that the data was still being analysed is correct. The test didn't fail in the sense that the missile took-off fine and splashed down fine but as DRDO didn't do the test the army had its own parameters which are being analysed to see if they were met. TOI and Hindu are closer to the truth perhaps than all others.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 May 2009 23:09

Sanjay wrote:Sunil - my apologies - I was refering to the denial when the MoD spokesman was asked about it by my source. Read above posts.

It is interesting that not a single newspaper has deemed the issue fit for investigation. I also think the MoD should say something, but I am led to understand that the report in the Hindu - that the data was still being analysed is correct. The test didn't fail in the sense that the missile took-off fine and splashed down fine but as DRDO didn't do the test the army had its own parameters which are being analysed to see if they were met. TOI and Hindu are closer to the truth perhaps than all others.

What does this mean Sanjay? How does the user agency have their own parameters besides that of the designing agency? Are they doing their own mods like this is piece of ordnance? Its missile and for strategic deterrent. Cant have tinkering with such vehicles.

I grant since its a user test that it was from IA inventory. Even for that the TLM and Tracking etc have to be by the design agency for they will have the instruments to be added to the baseline vehicle.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 21 May 2009 23:16

Ramana, I simply quote again:

"Dear Sanjay,

Spoke to the DRDO officials..not a source, who said, "this was a training trial carried out by the Indian Army on our facility. We were not involved in the test as the army was trying it on different parameters, therefore the release that was sent to you was just three line.

As for whether a success or a failure...who called it a failure??? On what grounds??.

If you insist on knowing success or failure then just call the Indian amy and ask them."

This whole is verbatim."

As for tinkering - don't be surprised if that is exactly what happened. The army does consider it a piece of ordnance. They would tinker with the TEL, perhaps even the missile if they thought they could do it.

Regarding what these "different parameters" were, I don't know - yet.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 21 May 2009 23:42

And credibility be damned! It says a lot that the spokesperson says go ask the Army.

By now we would have an article from Hindu bu TSS giving inner details etc.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 22 May 2009 00:28

Ramana, what do you mean by "credibility be damned" ? TSS will write in Frontline or the Hindu one way or the other and would have broken any story about catastrophic failure already. But remember DRDO feeds them the information. The Army is another story. It appears from all the probing to date, the army had complete control this time. You will note that Frontline did not do a major story on the Agni-1 user trial and the Hindu just reported as a user trial and moved on.

The state of play is this:
Rout claims failure, MoD spokesman asked and says no the test was successful. DRDO official asked and asks "who said it was a failure ? Go ask the army." DRDO source asked and says it was successful. That is as far as my inquiries have led to date.

Again, other than Rout's report - no other confirmation of such catastrophic failure ? A bit odd. Of course it does not mean he is wrong but still...

The really good thing is that more than likely we'll get another test soon. As I've said before, I suspect the Hindu's report was closest to the truth.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 23 May 2009 11:33

Sanjay wrote:It just scares me how willing everyone is to believe the worst. Again, Rout could be right but as of now there is an outright denial by the MoD spokesman. But as you know DRDO bashers will be braying again about lies and cover-ups etc etc. If there was a crash and burn in 127 seconds, we would have known by now. I suspect there may be an accuracy issue - this is just a feeling not a fact - with the new guidance system.

incidentally the only time I had heard of this rout fellow was another story of a missile test from wheeler. my distinct impression was that of a ISI chaap DDM.
strange that he surfaces only during missile tests.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 23 May 2009 16:06

Note - 4 days have elapsed without a single confirmation of Rout's story in any part of the media yet.

Again, he might be right but...

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 23 May 2009 20:52

4 Days have elapsed and Indian Army is still doing data analysis.

BTW I have found some of Hemant Kumar Rout's earlier articles useful to make it to my personal archive on subject matter. We should be careful to look out for real thing and not shoot the messenger at first opportunity.

ramana wrote:And credibility be damned! It says a lot that the spokesperson says go ask the Army.

That loose statement of the spokesperson has put to question Indian facade of credibility, in the eyes of the Indian deteractors. IMHO the person has little sense of strategic weapons and callously treating the subject as yet another non-strategic gun and shell test. Will not be surprised if he gets a slap on the wrist.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 23 May 2009 21:03

None of us was there to hear the tone of the discussion. Be careful with questioning credibility. From my source I got an entirely different impression, he was shocked at the allegation of failure and dared the journalist to go ask the army. I see nothing wrong with that.

Furthermore that was not a DRDO spokesman. It was an official tracked down in an attempt to confirm Rout's story. The MoD spokesman was very clear - the story was not true. Everything after that was in an attempt to confirm the MoD spokesman.

To ask a straightforward question - does anyone actually have any more information ?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2009 06:57

Rahul M wrote:
Sanjay wrote:It just scares me how willing everyone is to believe the worst. Again, Rout could be right but as of now there is an outright denial by the MoD spokesman. But as you know DRDO bashers will be braying again about lies and cover-ups etc etc. If there was a crash and burn in 127 seconds, we would have known by now. I suspect there may be an accuracy issue - this is just a feeling not a fact - with the new guidance system.
incidentally the only time I had heard of this rout fellow was another story of a missile test from wheeler. my distinct impression was that of a ISI chaap DDM.
strange that he surfaces only during missile tests.

Hemant Kumar Rout is easily Googled. He is an Orissa based person who writes mainly about Orissa issues. The only missile related archived news I could find was about missile tests affecting Olive Ridley Turtles: Here it is

http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.i ... kumar-rout

There is also another article about the "Smearch"

India successfully tests Russia-made ‘Smearch’

There is some interesting new information about the "Smearch"

Hemant Kumar Rout
First Published : 19 Dec 2008 09:48:00 AM

The 300-mm ‘Smearch’ projectiles are fitted with solid fuel engines. Rockets are 7.6 m in length and 800 kg in weight. Weight of warhead is 280 kg. Warhead can be simple or cluster.
‘‘It also has the capability of launching surface to surface and surface to air missiles. The system can be integrated with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to provide a new dimension to artillery defence system,’’ he added.

Other articles revolve around Orissa festivals, Orissa environment and communal harmony. He has 3 blogs - none of which are active.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 May 2009 16:38

Note he also spelt Smerch wrong.

None of the Delhi journos on the defence beat have ever seen him or knows what he looks like.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2009 17:02

Actually Googling for Hemant Rout missile gives many more hits. He appears to have done a lot of missile reporting as per this link.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2009 17:23

There is some really weird stuff going on.

Here is a screenshot of two reports, both from the 20th of May. One is from Express Buzz - by Hemant Rout that says

Hemant Kumar Rout
First Published : 20 May 2009 03:46:00 AM IST
Last Updated : 20 May 2009 12:03:16 PM IST

and the other from the Indian Express newspaper that says:

Express news servicePosted: Wednesday, May 20, 2009 at 0234 hrs IST

Both reports say different things. This is a complete mystery.

Click on image to see it enlarged:

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 May 2009 17:29

Comrade Shiv, this is exactly what I've been trying to show and deal with. Interesting thing is that the ExpressBuzz e-paper - the New Indian Express - did not carry Rout's story. Only the website itself. Which is right ? Well that was the question put to Mr. Kar of the MoD and his answer indicated that the Indian Express report was closer to the truth.

If you want to see something interesting - check the Sakaal Times piece. Unattributed and at 11:05am IST on 20/5/09.

Could it be that Rout merely copied the Sakaal Times piece ?

If an unknown like Rout could come up with this, don't you think by now other journos would have been falling over themselves to report the story or follow up on it ? Again, the caveat - he could be right but there is no confirmation of this and an oral denial of it.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 24 May 2009 17:39

@shiv sir, why are you using KDE 3 ? KDE 4.2-3 is already pretty feature complete.

babbupandey · Post by **babbupandey** » 24 May 2009 18:14

I think this can easily be resolved by many of BRFites who are journalists, it's just sending an email to their colleagues in Express group

On the story, I would trust Indian Express story on any given day than to a tabloid (even if it's of Express group). And more so because I could not find any contradictory story in any of the major newspapers I trust (The Hindu, Hindustan Times)

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 May 2009 18:16

Comrade, that's what I've been doing. Please see my posts from the begining of this. My contacts have been with a journo of the Express Group who has provided the information indicated. Is it enough ?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2009 18:18

anmol wrote:@shiv sir, why are you using KDE 3 ? KDE 4.2-3 is already pretty feature complete.

Whatever the default Ubuntu 8.04 LTS offers.

Need to upgrade soon.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2009 18:22

Sanjay wrote: Could it be that Rout merely copied the Sakaal Times piece ?

The words are the same - but where did the Sakaal times get its information from? The guy must have a contact inside Wheeler Island - a "scientist" who has access to some info.

Are we looking at some kind of "mole" inside Wheeler Island. The Sakaal times item is from Bhubaneshwar - about 11 AM 20th May.

If it was an army test the "scientist" would (might not?) not have access to the specific commands that the army might have wanted executed, but he might have acces to tracking data.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 May 2009 18:35

Investigating that angle as we speak. That being said, DRDO sources were asked and said the test was successful. All investigations suggest a very minimal DRDO presence. As I say, investigating this angle and I will revert as and when I find out something. Also, of the other papers, the Hindu has always been the best connected to DRDO on both successes and failure.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 24 May 2009 19:34

Prepare for some Rona-Dona,

Info from Pannwaala says that the test was indeed a failure and it was the press which jumped the gun and termed it as success. There was a problem during stage saperation as in there was lack of pressure even though the motor was running. Wonder why DRDO & IA haven't come out about this news, considering the dramabaazi IA does every time a desi maal doesn't behave to its expectations.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 May 2009 19:37

I will of course take your word for it.

babbupandey · Post by **babbupandey** » 24 May 2009 19:50

Sanjay sir,
it may be too much to ask, but can you ask your friend in Express group to check with someone he might know in the Hindu group. That way, we'll have two different sources to judge on.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 May 2009 19:51

Sure - will see what I can do.

BTW - please note the media only ran its stories after the MoD issued its press release. Subsequently when the allegations of failure came out, they asked the MoD and the spokesman denied those allegations.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 24 May 2009 20:48

Thank you Shiv. I was having difficulty using Google Desktop to get those articles by Rout from my archive.

Jay wrote:Prepare for some Rona-Dona,

Info from Pannwaala says that the test was indeed a failure and it was the press which jumped the gun and termed it as success. There was a problem during stage saperation as in there was lack of pressure even though the motor was running. Wonder why DRDO & IA haven't come out about this news, considering the dramabaazi IA does every time a desi maal doesn't behave to its expectations.

AoA !!
DDM never fails to amaze me.

As an aside while the Yindians suffer from genetic fingerprint to be self critical and self doubting, the double whammy is the genetic fingerprint to take as brahma satya the words of "thakur" (officials) even when earth is shaking. Just my personal observation onleeee.

Going back into my borrow to hide from volley of mijjiles.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 May 2009 21:14

Arun, should we then unquestioningly believe an unnamed source ?

I am continuing to investigate and will believe nothing until I get some more information.

There is also a view among some Indians to view a report or analysis on a website as true despite it being unsubstantiated and to believe opinion as fact.

I re-iterate the media reported after the MoD gave its statement.

But you are entitled to your view.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 24 May 2009 21:27

Arun_S wrote:Thank you Shiv. I was having difficulty using Google Desktop to get those articles by Rout from my archive.

AoA !!
DDM never fails to amaze me.

As an aside while the Yindians suffer from genetic fingerprint to be self critical and self doubting, the double whammy is the genetic fingerprint to take as brahma satya the words of "thakur" (officials) even when earth is shaking. Just my personal observation onleeee.

Going back into my borrow to hide from volley of mijjiles.

Apart from the failure, this delaying/denying of the truth is whats unacceptable. Is MOD trying to take a leaf from pakis or what? This is one chance where the DDM could have grilled them and as usual their lazy bums could'nt care. Its the apathy thats shocking, even for naxal rams hindu pamphlet and the less said the better about TOI-let paper.

Anyways, Paanwaala says that this is the first time they had a failure of this sort sincs Agni's first test flight and he also said that the mood in the organzation is not pessimisstic and it seems that fellow paanwaalas are treating this as an valuable lesson/experience and also everybody is aware of the fact that this happened during User trials.

Meanwhile a tidbit about Astra: As we known during the last trials, 2 Astras have been testfired, one with Desi seeker and the other with French seeker which promptly surrendered. It seems this is the second time the Frenchies surrendered with the exact same problem, which made the Paanwaalas wondering what did the French babus do in the last 6 months and it seems theres an opinion among out paanwalas that french paanwaalas are too slow.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 May 2009 21:31

Jay, I am sorry to say that this time you are wrong about the media for whom I hold no brief.

Fine your source might be right,but the media did ask specifically about the report. The plan is to continue asking in the coming week - at least on the part of my source.

But at this stage you will forgive me believing nothing yet.

Veracity aside, to follow your comments how can they not be pessimistic when an Agni-2 which had a pretty trouble-free development life fail ?

sum · Post by **sum** » 24 May 2009 21:34

It seems this is the second time the Frenchies surrendered with the exact same problem, which made the Paanwaalas wondering what did the French babus do in the last 6 months and it seems theres an opinion among out paanwalas that french paanwaalas are too slow.

French seeker concked twice?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 May 2009 21:38

One way to explain the lack of info is since its an operation test it will be classified info and until they have all the info they wont talk about it. As long as it was development program its open to all. So hold tight.
Stage sep is not an easy thing.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 May 2009 21:40

I give this undertaking - whatever the investigations reveal in the coming week(s) I will share as far as possible (and that has not been restricted so far).

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 24 May 2009 21:50

I do not know why everybody is making so much noise over one report that the whole thing failed. This Hemant Rout has also been batting for causes such as stopping tests so that turtles may nest peacefully. This shows where he comes from. Why should a single report by such an element be given more credibility than the MoD spokesperson?

The last time a test failed was A III in July 2006. Even though the media jumped the gun at first, they corrected themselves after that and the fact that it was a failure came out clearly. This time nothing like that happened. Why shold people then try to discredit the test and give hemant rout more credibility than all the other sources put together ?

There has to be some responsibility when commenting on this. Jay, are you making a general sarcastic comment or are you saying something that you heard from credible sources ? This is a serious matter on which loose statements/posts should never be made. I think the senior gurus should clearly state where they stand on this matter: do they believe Hemant Rout or the official spokesperson ?

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 24 May 2009 21:54

Ramana,

You say stage separation is not an easy thing. True. Stil, even the Pakis get it Ok with their M18/Shaheen II. Isro gets it right all the time. So, what is the difficulty with DRDO ?Agni II failing would mean our deterrent is not credible. Aircraft are useless for delivery. Ballistic missiles and ballistic missiles alone will be effective.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 24 May 2009 21:59

Ramdas, moreover, Agni-2 has had a good record to date. There was one problem in the 1992 test and that was largely because of an attempt to reduce weight by modifying the design.

To follow your point, the Agni-3 failure took place on 9th July 2006. In the issue dated 10th July 2006 (the first possible one after the test) Y. Mallikarjun wrote about the failure. http://www.hindu.com/2006/07/10/stories ... 510100.htm.
The MoD press report was not allowed to stand and the truth was told.

This time what happens ? The 20th May 2009 issue of the Hindu has an article by Y.Mallikarjun being very clear on a 10 minute flight etc. http://www.hindu.com/2009/05/20/stories ... 331300.htm

I am concerned that unsubstantitated reports are being selectively given the status of truth while other reports from sources hitherto pretty credible are being dismissed.

As I say, I will continue to investigate as far as possible.

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 24 May 2009 22:14

Sanjay,

Of course, there is a transition from from development to serial production. This is why batch testing of produced missiles has to be done systematically. Three successful tests may suffice to fully develop a ballistic missile. After that, it goes into production. The producing agency is different from the developing agency. This is where periodic testing becomes necessary- to make sure that the quality control mehanisms that have been put in place are working fine.

I also beleive that in the long run, Agni III and family are likely to be more robust than Agni II. Regarding the current test, I think one should give more credibility to hitherto credible sources.

In any case, there have been instances in the USSR of ICBMs of a certain type having problems that came to light after they were deployed and mass produced. Of course, they were fixed.

ramdas · Post by **ramdas** » 24 May 2009 22:18

Jay,

According to your source, was the failure due to lack of thrust in the second stage solid motor or due to some other problem in the stage separation mechanism itself ?

After all, A II uses a stage separation mechanism with open trusses. These are usualy reliable,with stage separation occuring once the second stage develops sufficient thrust.