Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 2010)

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g.sarkar
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by g.sarkar »

enqyoob wrote: LUCK has saved US again, with your kind presence in Stockton, CA. Alla* B Praised!!
Enqyoob Sirji,
You are right to praise Allah. When money and luck runs out. Rats like me will leave the sinking ship. Then only Allah Almighty will help. So, AOA. and MOA.
Gautam
Sanjay M
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Sanjay M »

The dumb populist is trying to spend his way out of recession using other peoples' money again:




He just loves dipping his hands into other peoples' pockets, doesn't he?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by shyam »

More the debt government takes, more it will be forced to keep interest rates low since it can't afford to pay higher rates. Longer the Fed keeps interest rate low, larger the distortion it does to the economy.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

Christopher Sidor wrote:These Gold-plated pensions, like the American Social Security, are there for a very good reason. They help the wage-earners and salaried to concentrate on consumption, without worrying about old-age support. Without these pensions and the medical/health support that the americans/canadians/europeans/australians/etc are entitled to, the wage-earners would not consume so much. In fact, in their absence, quite a significant amount of their wages and salaries would go into savings.
It should be going into savings. Wrecklessly consuming and printing without producing & saving is what's destroying the economy. That type of silly keynesian logic of ripping off one segment of society so a far smaller segment of society can consume & live comfortably is wrecking the economy.

I don't know if you have clued into the fact that SS, nevermind public sector gold plated pensions, is ponzi scheme. There is no money to pay out - not at current purchasing power levels anyway. Nobody in their 20s, 30s, 40s or maybe even 50s who is paying in should have any illusions of getting out what he put in.

There is no free energy machine where everyone can get out more than they put in. If someone gets more, someone else has to get less.

Public sector pensions meanwhile need to be converted into a 401K type plan before it destroys what's left of the private sector. Really everyone needs to be saving for their own retirement instead of looking for some sucker to carry their burden or offloading that debt on the younger generation.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ramana »

Hari Seldon < Have you read Robert McElvaine's, the History Prof on the Great Depression? He had similar stats which showed wealth concentration was a major facor tha led to the crash. His one liner was the Great Crash and Depression led to the transfer of wealth from the top 10% to the middle 40% which fed the consumer boom that led to the exit of the Great Depression which ended by mid- fifties.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-s-mcelvaine
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

Sanjay M wrote:He just loves dipping his hands into other peoples' pockets, doesn't he?
By definition, a recession means there is too much capasity and infrastructure gets used less. Roads & rail get used less. Airports and ports get used less. In some cases they are used less to a point where they are no longer economically viable to even maintain.

So I don't get the idea behind building/rebuilding *more* roads, rails and ports. The only thing that will result in is greater future expenditure for its upkeep and its return on investment will be negative.

This is not the 1920s where building a road or a rail might result in the creation of new machine tools, heavy machinery and industrial process. Road and rail building is not a high tech science. So it cannot even be said that something is learnt from this spending. Nothing is learnt.

Its a huge waste of money and malinvestment in a hopless attempt to prolong the inevitable - unless some boom industry comes into its own like genetics to turn the situation around.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ldev »

IMO, American wealth over the past 2 centuries came from (a) ripping out the natural resources of the North American continent and showing others how to rip out natural resources elsewhere, and (b) somehow channeling the wealth from this into generating new wealth through mechanized agriculture, mechanized industry for transportation, mass production, construction, and a fabulous education/R&D system to fuel innovation. These are what made the average worker so productive compared to others across the world, that the per-worker wealth generation rose to unprecedented levels.

Now, the natural resources have not been exhausted, but they alone cannot sustain individual income. The Services Industry which operated on trickle-down e-Khanomics has been shown to be unsustainable, because a lot of that can be outsourced at much lower cost. Mass manufacturing does not pay because the mechanisation has been exported to places where the workers get paid a lot less.
Empirical study will show that great wealth was generated initially through the industrial revolution which began in Europe. Natural resources had very little to do with it. Paradoxically most countries that have natural resources have remained poor. Just look at Africa. Also, countries that are called rich today did not practice the economic theory that they preached. Rather economic policy was quite different from economic thought or theory. Tariff walls and other non tariff barriers were high throughout the period when today's rich countries were becoming rich, from Europe in the 1800s and early 1900s to the US in the early and mid 1900s.

Current economic practice of "free markets" is in fact opposite to the policies followed by the rich countries of the west as as well as Japan and South Korea.

Agriculture reaches a point of diminishing marginal returns very quickly. Industrial production sustains positive marginal returns even for those items which we call commodities. However before the Chinese decided to become the factory to the world, nobody had rolled the dice they way that they have to actually test the theory. Manufacturing technology to make marginal returns positive were non existent in developing countries and high tariff walls in the west made it difficult to justify such investments other than in those countries which were given preferential market access such as Western Europe after WW2 as well as Japan and South Korea later.

History teaches us that countries should fight to retain all possible jobs whether in industry or services. The "free trade" policies now being followed mean either that the lessons of history have been forgotten or that policy makers have been bought over completely by industry.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ramana »

SanjayM, Dont let polemics takeover.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by enqyoob »

The cash/gold economy. Cash is King, but the King needs an Army to protect him. Back to the Wild West..
Argentines risking all to carry huge wads of cash
By ALMUDENA CALATRAVA and MICHAEL WARREN, Associated Press Writers Almudena Calatrava And Michael Warren, Associated Press Writers Mon Sep 6, 4:01 pm ET

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina – The "marker" lurks inside the bank, looking for people pulling large amounts of cash from a safe deposit box or bank account. The gunmen linger outside, usually on motorcyles, waiting to make their move.

For people like Carolina Piparo, eight months pregnant and carrying a purse full of cash for a down payment on her first home, gangs like these are an unavoidable risk in today's Argentina, where the underground cash economy is fueling a frightening new crime wave.

The July 29 attack that left Piparo comatose and killed her child added to a toll of thousands of crime victims — 4,998 reported "withdrawal robberies" in the first half of this year alone, according to Louis Vicat, a security consultant who keeps track privately because the government hasn't published detailed crime statistics since 2007.

Many victims don't even report being robbed, because they wouldn't be able to explain to tax agents where they got the money, says Vicat, who retired as deputy internal affairs chief of the Buenos Aires provincial police.

And yet cash on the table is simply the only way to do business — even when buying homes or entire companies — for many people in Argentina.

Transferring such money electronically would solve the problem in an instant. But in a society where income tax evasion runs about 50 percent and taxes eat up 65 percent of the money people do declare, many people are reluctant to use banks that way. Even people who want to pay all their taxes have a hard time complying, because there's always someone demanding to hide all or part of the transaction by paying in cash — preferably U.S. dollars. :shock:

The attack on Piparo in provincial La Plata prompted anti-crime marches and no end of fingerpointing .. Despite some arrests, "withdrawal robberies" continue unabated.

Piparo had saved for years with her husband to buy a home to raise their baby in. When it came time to withdraw the down payment, the teller told them the bank branch didn't have enough dollars; they would have to come back the next day.

Piparo did, with her mother, carefully putting $13,250 in her purse.

The bank's cameras recorded a burly man watching from behind them in line — a "marker" who later confessed to signaling others outside. Two men on a motorcycle stopped their car, threw Piparo to the ground and shot her in the face and chest as she begged them to just take the money. Her baby boy, Isidro, was born as she lay comatose, but didn't survive.

Piparo is now slowly recovering and seven people have been arrested, but many Argentines remain furious that they are exposed to such risks.

Politicians, economists, security experts and others interviewed by The Associated Press say one of the root causes of the robberies is Argentina's undeclared economy, along with the widespread reluctance of people to use a bureaucratic and costly banking system.

Add inflation of 25 percent or more this year, and people have many reasons to avoid transferring money from one account to another.

Soccer player Fabian Cubero lost a huge sum last month when his accountant left a bank with cash and was attacked by two criminals on a motorcycle in the parking garage. The player wouldn't say publicly just how the robbers got, but several newspapers reported it was 600,000 pesos — $150,000.

"These things happen on a daily basis. One has to get used to being robbed and be thankful for not getting killed," Cubero said.

Argentines aren't obligated to file tax returns each year unless they declare an annual income of least 144,000 pesos ($36,000) — and only 20 percent of the people officially meet this threshold. Many people handle as many transactions as possible in ways that avoid the scrutiny of tax agents.

With income tax compliance so low, the government seeks revenue in many other ways, imposing a 21 percent sales tax, bank transaction taxes, a "stamp tax" on business contracts, an annual "wealth tax" on personal property and many fees based on the declared value of a person's home.

"Of every 100 pesos you make, 65 you owe to the state through various taxes. That is why there is so much of this underground economy," said Ponciano Vivanco, a veteran notary in Buenos Aires who estimates that 90 percent of Buenos Aires' real estate is purchased in cash.

Argentina also taxes money transfers, check deposits and withdrawals and other routine banking transactions. Banks add their own fees and rules to discourage customers from using rival banks or credit cards.

"There are big Argentine companies that keep an important part of their management off the books. This also is common with small and medium enterprises. Anything you want to buy, you don't get an official receipt for it," economist Marcelo de Las Carreras said.

Still another factor that leads many Argentines to rely on cash is a mistrust of the country's currency.

Argentines can't forget the 2001 economic crisis that forced the government to devalue the peso, robbing most people of two-thirds or more of their wealth overnight. Banks were ordered to freeze deposits, and dollar-denominated savings could be withdrawn only in devalued pesos.

"Banks swindled us not long ago," Vivanco, the notary, said. "People who had their deposits in dollars were given back pesos and many lost 70 percent of their savings, and they blame the financial entities for this, even though the banks were just following the government's orders."

Many people avoid peso-denominated bank accounts, and convert their pesos into dollars that they stash in safe deposit boxes. Or they spend their cash on the likes of cars, appliances and apartments in hopes of protecting their wealth.

"The big money is kept in safe deposit boxes, not in bank accounts," ... .
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Sanjay M »

^^^ ramana,

Between 1929 and the 1950s, there was a little event called WW2 which caused the US to emerge from the Great Depression, by stimulating massive production capacity.

Obama is not adding to US capabilities or capacity by his pork-barrel spending. He's just doling out some pork to get re-elected, but his nation will pay a price for this. He is not boosting competitiveness.

What type of infrastructure spending would add to US competitiveness?
I dunno - maybe if he improved the US educational system by allowing people to go online for job re-training and earning degrees in their spare time, etc.

Teachers and academia have become a fat, bloated portion of their system which could easily be targeted for reform and competition.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by enqyoob »

The US interstate system has remained essentially the same since the 1950s - expanded, but technically it's the same, allowing cars and trucks to zoom along at 70-80 mph.

Only the Fed govt can bring along a modern high-speed rail system and hopefully cut into some of the wasteful air traffic for intercity travel. With a 2-hour airport lead time + 1 hour airport parking time + 1 hour airport exit time from touchdown to parking lot, air travel is pointless for trips shorter than say, 600 miles, but people have to then drive their own cars instead. High-speed rail can make a big difference long-term, but will never happen without a massive Federal investment. Investment in rail (the US rail system is also decrepit, with a large incidence of derailments due to the age of the tracks and bridges) is also essential, to take more of the interstate commerce off the fossil-burning interstate highways.

Same way, any advance in long-term infrastructure requires Federal investment, because the ROI takes 20 years+, and no US corporate manager will agree to such an investment.

Until and unless the US invests in such things, there cannot be any magical improvement in US "competitiveness" in the new Duniya, where Oirope, Australia, Japan, China, Pakistan and even parts of India have high-speed roads and telecom systems, and they also have excellent long-distance and intercity electric rail transport.

Finally the US seems to have a POTUS who is willing to at least speak of these things and express an intention to act along these lines. I think the per-mile costs of high-speed rail are absolutely outrageous, but maybe a lot of it is funny money.

It is sad to see rabid propaganda from one side, ignoring these fundamental truths just to throw mud at an elected President. The posts parroting the "NO Party" goons' lies remind us of the slogan:
VOTE *********. IT'S EASIER THAN THINKING


What the **** have the present Opposition contributed in the past 20 years to the advancement of the USA? They've just ripped off the nation, exported jobs, gutted the education system, sent healthcare costs zooming some 600%, allowed the infrastructure to rot, put the nation into the hands of terrorists by supporting Pakistan and KSA, and then got the nation into a crippling and totally needless war in Iraq. And these oiseules have the gall to keep telling us that the PRESENT government is any stupider than the Reagan/Bush1/Dubya goon gang? This is plain tiresome.

While I will be glad to see the likes of Barbara Boxer get their comeuppance, I sure don't want to see a repeat of the Gingrinch-era nonsense.

And I forgot to add: Gutted the entire Federal Inspection system that had brought some quality control and standards to the US of A. The FAA, the EPA, the FEMA, OSHA, the BLM, the Forest Service, the Corps of Engineers, all gutted. Is it any wonder that the Standard&Poor types felt chalta hai enough to hand out AAA ratings for junk mortgage derivative packages?
Last edited by enqyoob on 07 Sep 2010 08:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

Neshant wrote:We are moving to an SDR type system as a global currency. Its another worthless paper system which surely won't last more than a few years before it dawns on everyone this is the same wine in a new bottle. Its exactly as Jim Rickards predicted. One of the key signs of this is the rebalancing of voting rights at the IMF for China. US wants China to have a bigger voting share so its willing to come onboard with the idea.

Jim Rickards Interview from June 14th with Eric King
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldn ... 3A2010.mp3
In light of the above a few articles have been posted by members highlighting the US push to increase China's represenation at the IMF (mostly at European country's expense).

I came across an interesting page (the US postal service) which lists SDR to USD exchange rate at the bottom of the page in tables. http://pe.usps.com/text/imm/immc3_007.htm

The rate quoted is :
1 U.S. $ = 0.6576 SDR

A glimpse of the 35% devaluation of the dollar to come?

Jim Rickards predicts the upcoming G-20 meeting in South Korea will be far more important than the one earlier in Toronto this year. It will be where the idea of SDR as a global unit for international trade will be pushed forward. It will be spun as a good thing to 'balance trade' and other BS but really it will be a devaluation of the dollar and savers of western fiat will take it up the a$$.

If you come across any articles on SDR especially in the context of US wanting China to have a bigger role or especially anything in relation to the next G-20 meeting in South Korea, please post it.

Something evil is coming down the pike I can just feel it. The only possible reason the G-7 morphed into the G-20 is to push forward some crooked international currency system to default on debt and transfer liabilities elsewhere.
Last edited by Neshant on 07 Sep 2010 08:19, edited 1 time in total.
arnab
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

Sanjay M wrote:
Between 1929 and the 1950s, there was a little event called WW2 which caused the US to emerge from the Great Depression, by stimulating massive production capacity.

Obama is not adding to US capabilities or capacity by his pork-barrel spending. He's just doling out some pork to get re-elected, but his nation will pay a price for this. He is not boosting competitiveness.

What type of infrastructure spending would add to US competitiveness?

Umm but wasn't the WW2 policy effectively the same? - undertake huge govt expenditure in the 'war machinery'. Do look at the US debt-GDP ratio at the time. What sort of productive capacity did it add to? What happenned to the US unemployment rates after the demobilisation in 1945?
Unfortunately, today since we don't have someone of the calibre of hitler or a Tojo hanging around (I don't think Amejinadehad's propsed adventures will really require US to ramp up its military capacity and George W in his wisdom went after Saddam during 'boom phase' in the US and created huge deficits for the US government leaving her dangerously exposed to the 'bust phase'), so US tries an intelligent alternative - infrastructure spending.

Feel free to have a look:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexch ... l_policy_0
There was enormous scope for spending in simply preventing declines in normal investments; due to revenue shortfalls associated with the recession local governments and transit organisations curtailed services, raised fares, delayed procurement, and halted expansion. These changes were both damaging to local communities and representative of missed opportunities for easy stimulus.
And obviously there are many other needs to be addressed. Roads and bridges are undermaintained. America's rail system is inadequate and in need of repair and expansion. Electrical grids are weak in many places and could be turned into smart grids in others to facilitate a more efficient use of energy. Water and sewer systems in cities around the country are aging and vulnerable. Broadband coverage in many metropolitan areas is pitiful relative to that elsewhere in the developed world. And so on. The country could usefully spend several hundred billion dollars a year on such investments, for years to come.
the biggest economic advantage of infrastructure spending is that it represents investments that are probably needed in any case. There would be positive returns to such investments whether or not the economy was weak. That there are ample underused resources at present merely sweetens the deal. Projects can be done cheaply and effectively now, without risk of crowding out private investment and while providing desperately needed support for aggregate demand.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Sanjay M »

^^^ Yeah, but the expansion of production capacity was based on actual demand - ie. the demands of a massive globe-spanning war.

Lots of ships were being launched, but lots of them were being sunk, too. There was no possibility of a supply glut in that regard.


Meanwhile, rumours are circulating that Obama intends to bring back the Homebuyer Tax Credit:

http://blogs.forbes.com/beltway/2010/09 ... s-baaaack/

This measure was a predictable flop before, and it will be a flop again. This guy keeps going for stuntsmanship over substance. He keeps trying to steal from future sales in order to bump up the current numbers. It's a sign of desperation and intellectual bankruptcy.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

Sanjay M wrote:^^^ Yeah, but the expansion of production capacity was based on actual demand - ie. the demands of a massive globe-spanning war.

Lots of ships were being launched, but lots of them were being sunk, too. There was no possibility of a supply glut in that regard.
How does it matter? Say tomorrow if the US govt asks the 6th fleet to sink the 7th fleet and then build more ships to augment 'demand' for the lost fleet - would this be creating actual demand? Why not do something produtive for a change - build a good transportation rail network / power grids etc?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

arnab wrote:Why not do something produtive for a change - build a good transportation rail network / power grids etc?
You got the definition of productive mixed up. There is no need for this stuff. Its not needed any more than you need to build 3 more garages for your house or install 10 more bathrooms. It is just an expenditure of capital on something that's not needed and which will incur an upkeep cost for a long time. Therefore it is unproductive.

A recession means people use less of stuff. If people use less of ports, roads, bridges, power, oil..etc. what is the need for building more when the market does not demand it? Is the current power grid failing on a daily basis that it needs a total over haul? Is there a sudden increase in goods that have to be shipped via rail from one end to another? Millions of baby boomers are going to drop dead in the next 15 years and so will demand for a lot of things. Is there need to build more in anticipation of that?

Ironically something productive might be tearing down a few of these existing infrastructure projects to save the states from their upkeep, labor union, public sector pension cost.

First the demand should come, then it should be built. Only time its the other way around is when you got a developing country that is growing with strong potential. Even so you make the projections of future growth conservatively and not build 30 nuclear power plants on the credit card at one shot.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

ramana wrote:Hari Seldon < Have you read Robert McElvaine's, the History Prof on the Great Depression? He had similar stats which showed wealth concentration was a major facor tha led to the crash.
...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-s-mcelvaine
Good reference, ramana garu.

Such hard won insight from the throes of the great depression seems like common sense in hindsight only. Still remains far from common in policy circles, for some reason.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

Neshant wrote: .

A recession means people use less of stuff. If people use less of ports, roads, bridges, power, oil..etc. what is the need for building more when the market does not demand it? Is the current power grid failing on a daily basis that it needs a total over haul?
Which is why it is important to understand some basic economics. There is something known as a 'counter cyclical' policy. A recession is the 'bust' phase of an economic cycle. If people are using 'less stuff' then govts should not add to this pressure by also using 'less stuff'. Otherwise the economy goes into a down-ward spiral of less consumption feeding on even lower employment.
When credit off-take is weak that is precisely the time when govts should invest in major infrastructure projects because it can do so without the fear of crowding out private investment. Then when the 'boom' returns your - ports, rail, road etc are ready to provide the 'multiplier' effect for private investment.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

arnab wrote: Which is why it is important to understand some basic economics. There is something known as a 'counter cyclical' policy. A recession is the 'bust' phase of an economic cycle. If people are using 'less stuff' then govts should not add to this pressure by also using 'less stuff'. Otherwise the economy goes into a down-ward spiral of less consumption feeding on even lower employment.
There isn't counter cyclical anything. This is just keynesian economic theory which is bankrupting many states the world over like Greece. If the solution to every economic problem was just spending more, there would be no problems.

At some point one gets a negative rate of return. That is for every dollar of debt you go into to stimulate the economy, you get less than a dollar back. This is especially so when govt gets bright ideas and start building/spending on stuff that nobody needs. Keep stimulating and you could well be stimulating yourself into an ever deeper economic hole. Then what do you do? Start printing? Its just a robbery from the productive segment of society which in turn destroys that productive segment and pull the economy down further.

The downward spiral stuff is a crock made up by bankers to get the public to eat their speculation losses during the boom times. Prices should fall to a level that demand can support where financially prudent people can afford it.

The sillyness of keynesian economics which has clueless people at the top fiddling around with interest rates, stimulating (housing), printing and other crazy ideas is the CAUSE not the cure of the current economic crisis. The solution is to let demand control the supply. If there is a recession, it only means too many wise men at the top have meddled with the system and they need to stop meddling, stimulating, printing, taxing, inflating, bailout-ing and other forms of scamming & scheming.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Sanjay M »

^^ Arnab, you act like a govt has an infinite money tap, and that the rest of the public won't notice the rampant borrowing that the govt would have to engage in just to maintain the rampant spending. Remember, govt doesn't create money, it just uses up other peoples' money.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

Neshant wrote: At some point one gets a negative rate of return. That is for every dollar of debt you go into to stimulate the economy, you get less than a dollar back. This is especially so when govt gets bright ideas and start building/spending on stuff that nobody needs. Keep stimulating and you could well be stimulating yourself into an ever deeper economic hole. Then what do you do? Start printing? Its just a robbery from the productive segment of society which in turn destroys that productive segment and pull the economy down further.
Sir who is this 'productive segment' of society? At a basic level - one needs nothing except food and water to survive (A Robinson Crusoe economy). Everything else is an artificially created demand - a product of glib marketing. So this inference that the public servants and big bankers are leeches but the poor new york taxi driver is a productive member of the economy is of course nonsense.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

Sanjay M wrote:^^ Arnab, you act like a govt has an infinite money tap, and that the rest of the public won't notice the rampant borrowing that the govt would have to engage in just to maintain the rampant spending. Remember, govt doesn't create money, it just uses up other peoples' money.
Actually the govt does have an infinite money tap :) - Even Zimbawe hasn't exactly collapsed despite the dire predictions for a while now. It depends only on how much inflation you are willing to tolerate :)
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ShivaS »

Governments crop up
Governments collapse
Economy inflates
Economy deflates

Currency circulates
Currency capitulates
Commodities gain currency

Wealth migrates
Wealth vanishes

Land may languish
Land doesn’t vanish
From vanquished

People Procreate
People Produce
People barter
People consume

Life ends only to begin
People survive
People thrive yet again
****
Be it Zimbabwae, Somalia, pol p(l)ot, N Korea, Liberia, Rawanda, Congo
it will continue, Native Americans were not so lucky unfortunately because of bio warfare....
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by svinayak »

It is worth pausing to consider the financial crisis in 2008. For the most part, it was a routine culmination of a business cycle. During an aggressive upsurge in an economy, interest rates are necessarily low. Conservative investors seek to increase yield without increasing risk. Financial institutions are first and foremost marketing organizations, designed to devise products satisfying demand. As the business cycle moves to climax, financial institutions must become more aggressive in crafting these products, frequently increasing the hidden risk in the product. At the end of the cycle, the weakness is revealed and the house comes crashing down. Consider the dot-com meltdown at the turn of the century.

When the devastation affects a financial sector, rather than a non-financial economic sector like dot-coms, the consequences are doubled. First, there are financial losses. Second, the ability of the financial sector to function, to provide liquidity to the economy, contracts. In the United States, the normal solution has been federal intervention. In the 1970s, the federal government intervened in a possible meltdown in municipal bonds by bailing out New York City—guaranteeing its bonds. In the 1980s, when third world countries began defaulting on debt because of declining commodity prices, the United States led an international bailout that essentially guaranteed the third world debt via the Brady Bond. In 1989, when a collapse in the commercial real estate market devastated the savings and loan industry, the federal government intervened through the Resolution Trust Corporation. The crisis of 2008 was triggered by the decline of housing prices, forcing the government to intervene to guarantee those loans and other functions of the financial system.

Debt is measured against net worth. If you owe a thousand dollars and have a net worth that’s negative, you have problems if you lose your job. If you owe a million dollars but have a net worth of a billion dollars, you don’t have a problem. The U.S. economy has a net worth measured in hundreds of trillions of dollars. Therefore, a debt crisis measuring a few trillion cannot destroy it. The problem is, how can this country’s net worth be used to cover the bad loans, since that net worth is in hundreds of millions of private hands? Only the government can do that, and it does it by guaranteeing the debts, using the state’s sovereign taxing power, and utilizing the Federal Reserve’s ability to print money to bail out the system.

In that sense, the 2008 crisis was not materially different from previous crises. While the underlying economy will go through a recession, recessions are normal and common parts of the business cycle. But at the same time, we are seeing an important harbinger of the more distant future. The decline in housing prices has many reasons, but lurking in back of it is a demographic reality. As global population growth declines, the historic assumption that land and other real estate will always rise in price due to greater demand becomes suspect. The crisis of 2008 was not yet really a demographically driven crisis. But it showed a process that will reveal itself more fully over the next twenty years: an equity crisis driven by demographics. Declines in residential real estate prices are startling. They have not been drivers in the past. This one is hardly a defining moment. Think of it as a straw in the wind, a sign of things to come—from pressure on real estate to greater government control of the economy.
When we talk of economic crisis, all fears turn immediately to the Great Depression. In fact, historically, the terminal crisis of a cycle has usually resembled deep discomfort more than the profound agony of the Depression. The stagflation of the 1970s or the short, sharp crises of the 1870s are far more likely than the prolonged, systemic failure of the 1930s. As will be true for the crisis of the 2020s, we don’t have to be facing a Great Depression in order to be confronting a historical turning point.

For the first century of the United States, the driving problem was the structure of land ownership. For the next 150 years, the primary issue was how to manage the relationship between capital formation and consumption. The solution swung between favoring capital formation and favoring consumption, sometimes settling on balancing the two. But for 250 years of American history, labor was never an issue. The population always grew and the younger, working- age cohorts were more numerous than the older.

Underlying the crisis of 2030 is the fact that labor will no longer be the reliable component it has been up to that point. The surge in birthrate following World War II and the increase in life expectancy will create a large aging population, increasingly out of the workforce but continuing to consume. And here’s a fact that should get you thinking: when Social Security set the retirement age at sixty- five, the average life expectancy for a male was sixty- one. It makes us realize how little Social Security was designed to pay out. The subsequent surge in life expectancy has changed the math of retirement entirely.

The decline in birthrates since the 1970s, coupled with later and later entry into the workforce, reduces the number of workers to each retiree. During the 2020s this trend will intensify. It is not so much that workers will be supporting retirees, although that will be a factor. The problem will be that retirees, drawing on equity in homes and retirement funds, will still be consuming at high rates. Therefore, workers will be needed to fill their demand. With a declining workforce, and steady demand for goods and services, inflation will soar because the cost of labor will go through the roof. It will also accelerate the rate at which retirees exhaust their wealth.
Retirees will divide into two groups. Those lucky or smart enough to have equity reserves in houses and 401(k)s will be forced to sell those assets. A second group of retirees will have few or no assets. Social Security, under the best of circumstances, leaves people in abject poverty. The pressure to maintain reasonable standards of living and health care for the baby boomers will be intense, and it will come from a group that will continue to retain disproportionate political power because of their numbers.
Retirees vote disproportionately to other groups, and the baby boomer vote will be particularly huge. They will vote themselves benefits.

Boomers will start retiring in about 2013. If we assume an average retirement age of seventy (and health and financial need will push it there), the years after will see the start of a surging retired population. A significant drop- off won’t occur until well after 2025, and the economic repercussions will continue to echo well after that. Those born in 1980 will be coping with this problem from their mid- thirties to their mid- forties. For an important part of their working life, they will be living in an increasingly dysfunctional economy. From a broad historical point of view this is just a passing problem. For those born between 1970 and 1990 this not only will be painful but will define their generation. It may not be on the order of another Great Depression, but those who remember the stagflation of the 1970s will have a point of reference.
Baby boomers came in with a generation gap. They will go out with a generation gap.


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

Haven't read the piece yet but remember, JK Galbraith is a guy who advocates that 'deficits don't matter'. He has his (plausible) reasons.

BTW, while massive widespread systematic fraud cutting across political, corporate, military and other lines is indeed the root of the crisis and all that, it's interesting to note that *nothing* has been done subsequently to address the problem - no indictments, no prosecutions and jailwalks so far. None. Nada. No overhaul of regulation and enforcement in the so-called 'fin reform' bills, no attempt even at reviving the protections such as Glass-steagel that were in place for decades, nothing!

And while the Repuglycans may indeed be the scum of the earth and all that, I blame the Democraps more. They have had full control of all 3 branches of the state - executive, legislative (both houses!) and judiciary (majority of SCOTUS judges are Dem leaning) - and still they have not acted. Why? Blaming the GOP is easy and par for the course. Why haven't you acted so far, sri Obama?!?!
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ShivaS »

'deficits don't matter'. He has his (plausible) reasons.
Yes they dont matter
But for what purpose (is the deficit) and how much is more important to answer.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Singha »

BBC - dusk for pax brittanica

Fears over street light cut-backs
Street lamp Some local authorities see a reduction in street lighting as a way to save money

The growing number of councils across the UK that are switching off street lights has prompted criticism from MPs and road safety groups.

Some local authorities have turned off some lights at selected times and switched others off completely, in a bid to save money.

Commons Transport Select Committee chairwoman Louise Ellman said she feared safety was being compromised.

The UK's 7.5m street lights cost about £500m each year to power.

Buckinghamshire County Council said it had turned off 1,600 of the 28,000 street lights around the county and was saving about £700,000 a year as a result.

Spokesman Keith Carpenter said: "I can assure people that we are carefully monitoring this trial. We have the intention of saving money but without compromising road safety."

Similar schemes have already started or are planned across the UK in areas including Swansea, Essex, Leicestershire, Devon and parts of Yorkshire.

I am extremely concerned that financial pressures are leading to steps which can jeopardise peoples lives and increase the number of injuries”

End Quote Louise Ellman MP Commons Transport Select Committee

In Somerset, the council said turning off 500 lights between 0030 and 0500 would save £18,500 a year and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 122 tonnes a year.

It had already carried out a two-year trial of switching off lights on parts of the A370 and A371.

Councillors in Leicestershire have said a scheme in which 60 street lights, along with 1,300 village lamps, were switched off between midnight and 0530 had saved money.

The county council plans to turn off 1,000 more lights over the next few months and has said it expects the move to save about £19,000 over the first 12 months.

Meanwhile in Essex, the council said it had turned off 18,000 of the 220,000 street lights, saving about £1.25m a year.

But Mrs Ellman said: "I am extremely concerned that financial pressures are leading to steps which can jeopardise people's lives and increase the number of injuries.

"We've made great progress in recent years in reducing the number of deaths and injuries on our roads. It would be tragic if by switching the lights off that progress was to be put back many years."

Tara Green, whose nine-year-old stepson was killed on an unlit rural road, told the BBC keeping street lights on was among measures that should remain in place to "keep the public safe".

Nigel Parry, of the Institution of Lighting Engineers, suggested there were other ways for councils to save money besides turning off street lights completely.

"We think the best thing that they can do is invest in new technology where they can talk to all the street lights centrally and dim them down to, say, 50% of their light output during the wee hours of the morning and still save 40-50% of their energy budget. Everybody wins that way," he said.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by svinayak »

We were selling products that had been around for 20 years
and faced a lot of price pressure from Wal-Mart, Kmart, and
Target—our three biggest customers. They kept threatening

to go to suppliers in China or India unless we lowered our
prices. We had four alternatives: (1) reduce costs to match
China and India, (2) buy from China and India and resell to
our customers, (3) introduce new products (one of which
was close at hand), or (4) do a combination of the above.

My hypothesis was that we could best minimize the price pressure
by introducing new products. Sure enough, when we
walked into the Big 3 to introduce the new product, they
were excited; we could practically charge whatever we
wanted. After that, they were much less concerned about
beating us up on price, even on the established products, as
long as we kept generating new products. Therefore, the
hypothesis worked out.

We could have taken one of the other approaches and tried
to cut costs to beat India and China. In fact, several of our
key managers thought cost reduction was the only answer, as
it had been in the past. Well, good luck; you can’t beat China
and India on costs with U.S.–made products. Naturally, cost
reduction was part of the answer for the long term; we
launched a cost reduction effort, but we never got down to
Chinese or Indian costs.

The other option, purchasing from China and India and
reselling to Kmart, Wal-Mart, and Target, while popular
with a small faction of management, made no sense to me.
All we would be doing was setting up a distribution system
for the Asian manufacturers and, once established, they
would go directly to the buyers and cut us out. Because of
constant price pressure, this option will continue to be on the
table, but as long as we have other values to offer the Big 3,
the better off we are going to be.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by ShivaS »

Like in Shiva’s case :wink: the Ganga spouting from his head, Acharya ji did the above post spout out of your hat or there is some other source I humbly ask?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

It's terrible I tell ya..... Now the Blitish lag Independent is hell bent on night-soiling poor PRC's pristine reputation... :evil:
A surge in bank lending. A speculative rush to buy houses – not just second properties, but third or fourth homes. Soaring property prices. Banks hiding the loans off their balance sheets. Surely it could not be happening again? And not so soon? But it is – in China.
Yup, and like a wise wag on the web quipped, "We've seen how that movie ends."
The world's most populous country survived the crash that crippled economies in the West, but Beijing did so by stimulating spending, especially by pushing money into property. Now the regulators are worried that boom will lead to bust there too.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has asked the country's lenders to stress-test their balance sheets to see what will happen if house prices fall by 10 per cent, 20 per cent or 30 per cent.

The answers are worrying. Banks have been told to raise more capital to strengthen their reserves and curb property lending, though they will not have to bring off-balance-sheet loans – estimated at £200bn – into their accounts until the end of next year. But three of China's biggest banks announced plans last week to raise more than 200bn yuan (£19bn) from shareholders.
Yawn,. Nothing will happen. PLA can simply shoot all the troublemakers - bondholders, subprime deadbeats, bank managements and so on - and start afresh on a clean slate. Now whatever could go wrong with that, eh?
However, in a country still moving from communism to capitalism, the banks, the borrowers and the shareholders are all part of the state. Although leading banks such as Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are listed on the Beijing or Shanghai stock markets, the state still controls them via its Central Huijin Investment vehicle. The government must thus subscribe for much of the new capital or see its stakes diluted.

Over the past decade, Western countries have relied on China as a source of both cheap imports and capital as the export proceeds are reinvested in America or Europe. But the property boom has absorbed not only money that would have been deposited in foreign countries but funds that would have been lent to small businesses. A growing proportion of the Chinese economy is based on inflated property values rather than manufacturing or exporting.
Someone was quipping abt some shenzen vs haipin or something a moon or so ago somewhere on brf only....
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

arnab wrote: Sir who is this 'productive segment' of society?
The fact that one has to ask the above question is itself testament to how badly mauled common sense gets under keynesian economics.

A productive segment of society is one which profitably fulfills a demand in society. A taxi driver gets people from point A to B. A guy working a factory job produces something that people want to buy.

Now unless there is a demand among people to be scammed of their hard earned money by financing & banking crooks, that would be classified as non-productive.

To put it bluntly, its destructive. Even if one accepts the utility role of banks (which is increasingly of marginal value given technology), one has to ask is it worth anywhere near what this 'industry' drains from the productive economy. By all indications, its a useless middle man industry.

Govt stimulating, printing, inflating, bailout-ing, rigging and various other -ing of such an industry is a transfer of wealth from the productive segments of society to the overpriced and/or useless segment of society. A revolving door system between bankers and politicians is the reason for this.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by enqyoob »

Banks are evil. Mine has started charging me $2/mo for "check image statement facility" even when there is not a single check image in the statement, seriously eroding the balance.

********** Hawala - the Choice of the IT Generation**********

AoA!
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

enqyoob wrote:Banks are evil. Mine has started charging me $2/mo for "check image statement facility" even when there is not a single check image in the statement, seriously eroding the balance.

Check image statement facility is usually online. i.e. if you login to your online account and click on a link in your statement of a check you issued, they charge you something for viewing it.

Its a legitimate cost for the convenience. This kind of record keeping may be one of the few useful things a bank does (a utility role).

The kind of ripoff I'm talking about is not a 1 and 2 dollar affair. Its stuff like banks getting money from the federal reserve at 0% and depositing that money back with the federal reserve at a higher interest rate. What is that other than a handout of free money and a ripoff of anyone who does real work in the economy. That kind of ripoff is legion.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

Neshant wrote: The fact that one has to ask the above question is itself testament to how badly mauled common sense gets under keynesian economics.

A productive segment of society is one which profitably fulfills a demand in society. A taxi driver gets people from point A to B. A guy working a factory job produces something that people want to buy.

Now unless there is a demand among people to be scammed of their hard earned money by financing & banking crooks, that would be classified as non-productive.

To put it bluntly, its destructive. Even if one accepts the utility role of banks (which is increasingly of marginal value given technology), one has to ask is it worth anywhere near what this 'industry' drains from the productive economy. By all indications, its a useless middle man industry.
No - a taxi gets a person from A to B, but you have the option of walking from A to B or taking public transport. The 'demand' is created only because there is a supply of taxis. You don't really need it. A taxi also causes pollution which people do not demand but the driver is not asked to bear the cost. A taxi driver in new york earns 20 times more than a taxi driver in mumbai for no additional skills. He just takes advantage of being in a country whose government protects his salary by not allowing free taxi driver migration from mumbai to NY till the wages drop to mumbai levels (so much for 'free market' !!). So - see your govt provides a service. The same for your banks - they provide a service. So you pay for it.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Hari Seldon »

^^^ Interesting perspective arnab da.

Must say I somewhat-maybe kinda agree only. However nitpicks remain....
arnab wrote:No - a taxi gets a person from A to B, but you have the option of walking from A to B or taking public transport. The 'demand' is created only because there is a supply of taxis.

Wow. IOW, supply came first and hence 'created' its own demand..... interesting. Overturns established theory that either demand comes first or we ahve a chicken-egg evolution situation for complex products and services....
You don't really need it.
Wow. And you know that, how? By that logic, denitists' patients too probably don't need painkiller. I know, I know ... the analogy's imperfect and all, but is it really?
A taxi also causes pollution which people do not demand but the driver is not asked to bear the cost.
True. Quite true. And who shall compute and assign what each activity 'costs' the planet? Why, a super duper (and unelected) gubmint babucracy, of course! The elected legislators, trapped as they are -poor souls - in a permanent campaign mode, nowadays needn't bother with the intricacies of thinking and writing bills, I'm told. Why, corporate lobbyists do it for them already, and that too for FREE, I hear. Can anyone say, "Hello cap-n-trade"?
A taxi driver in new york earns 20 times more than a taxi driver in mumbai for no additional skills. He just takes advantage of being in a country whose government protects his salary by not allowing free taxi driver migration from mumbai to NY till the wages drop to mumbai levels
Just as true. If not even more so.
So the world ain't a free and fair place. So what else's new?
(so much for 'free market' !!).
Universal bugbear. While nobody's saying there ever is or was a free market, everybody's accusing everyone else of a free market doomsday cultism only. Just like the 'nazi' label is an easy stick to beat debate opponents with, I guess. :D
So - see your govt provides a service. The same for your banks - they provide a service. So you pay for it.
I agree.
From what I hear though, utility companies are heavily regulated under, well, utility laws. Their returns are guaranteed but also, importantly, capped. Else, one can always argue that one doesn't 'need' electricity or the water supply. I understand that nobody here is trying to excuse banking recklessness, naked fraud and even more naked power grab. But its is high time we don;t provide the banksters the fig leaf of 'free market or its lack thereof' and other such lofty intellectual arguments. Just saying, not disagreeing with your main points or anything.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

Hari Seldon wrote:^^^ Interesting perspective arnab da.

Must say I somewhat-maybe kinda agree only. However nitpicks remain....
Hari saar - all contextual onlee :) Remember Say's law? (Supply creates it own demand).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Say's_law

What you 'need' or 'don't need' has to be seen in the context of the claim - 'cut out the middle-man' (aka guovernment and Banks). Just pointing out where we could go if we take such 'arguments' to the ridiculous extreme :)

Added later: (Though I must say that it is ironic that Neshant calls Keynesian arguments nonsensical - yet his own argument is a primarily keynesian one which focuses on demand unlike the classical arguments which focus on supply side economics) :mrgreen:
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

arnab wrote: No - a taxi gets a person from A to B, but you have the option of walking from A to B or taking public transport.
Option being the key word.

Where do I sign up for the option of not getting ripped off by banking crooks.

arnab wrote:The 'demand' is created only because there is a supply of taxis.
By that logic, demand for housing should be booming since there's a ready supply of it. Demand is created by need/want not supply.
arnab wrote:He just takes advantage of being in a country whose government protects his salary by not allowing free taxi driver migration.
There are already an army of illegals driving cabs in America.
arnab wrote:So you pay for it.
Only if I choose to. To reiterate : A productive segment of society is one which profitably fulfills a demand in society. Scamming is not productive and nobody signs up to be ripped off by banking crooks nor have their liabilities offloaded onto their backs. Its forced upon productive society by a useless middle man industry. Amen.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by arnab »

Neshant wrote:
arnab wrote: No - a taxi gets a person from A to B, but you have the option of walking from A to B or taking public transport.
Option being the key word.

Now where do I sign up for the option of not getting ripped off by banking crooks?

arnab wrote:The 'demand' is created only because there is a supply of taxis.
By that logic, demand for housing should be booming since there's a ready supply of it. Demand is created by need/want not supply.
arnab wrote:He just takes advantage of being in a country whose government protects his salary by not allowing free taxi driver migration.
There are already an army of illegals driving cabs in America.
arnab wrote:So you pay for it.
Only if I choose to. To reiterate : A productive segment of society is one which profitably fulfills a demand in society. Scamming is not productive and nobody signs up for it. Its forced upon the productive by a useless middle man industry.
1. Don't bank your money. keep it under your pillow.
2. yes but demand can be 'manufactured' - do you really need an iphone4? So why did apple make it? (just like demand for housing was artificially manufactured based on the ludicrous premise that property prices always goes up).
3. Yes - but they are illegals right? Why doesn't the govt legally get cabbies in a 'free market' instead of unnecessarily shoring up the wages of such unskilled people?
4. Yes - you can pay for goods that you can 'choose' to have or not have. But the protection (and facilities) offered to you by the US govt comes to you just by virtue of staying there. So you don't have the option of 'choosing'. So you pay (this is known as a public good)
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown (Jan 26 201

Post by Neshant »

arnab wrote: 1. Don't bank your money. keep it under your pillow.
In order for the productive to have the option of keeping money under their pillow, it should retain its purchasing power. Since the crooked middle man industry produces nothing, its only means of income is stealing it from others - hence the need for 'promoting' inflation. Now to stop the thievery, central banking would have to be disbanded. Except that won't happen because the middle man industry's primary means of looting the people of their wealth will be gone. So there's no option for me to keep it under my pillow.
arnab wrote:2. yes but demand can be 'manufactured' - do you really need an iphone4?.
I don't need it, but I have the option of having it if I agree to trade my hard earned money for it. When I do and Apple makes a sale. Its a reward for having produced a product somebody wants to have. Nobody opts to be scammed by banking crooks. Again where's the option to sign off?
3. Yes - but they are illegals right? Why doesn't the govt legally get cabbies in a 'free market' instead of unnecessarily shoring up the wages of such unskilled people?
Sounds good if the whole world be put in a free market. Why just cabbies?
4. Yes - you can pay for goods that you can 'choose' to have or not have. But the protection (and facilities) offered to you by the US govt comes to you just by virtue of staying there. So you don't have the option of 'choosing'. So you pay (this is known as a public good)
I'm afraid not every piece of sillyness engaged in by govts at the urging of a useless middle man industry or lobbyists can be categorized as the public good.
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