shiv wrote:If India's aim is to gain an advantage over Pakistan, that advantage will not come unless India somehow sabotages the US and its support for the Pakistan army.
For this to happen we have to recognise signs where the US is in pain and be ready to milk an advantage for ourselves. Can we milk the US to do something for us? That is why I asked in my previous post:
Which of the following options would India support?
1) Pakistan army in power in Pakisatan
2) Taliban in power in Pakistan
3) US controlling Pakistan army and stopping terror against India
2 may be the best option
3 is second best
1 is worst.
from the given options, I agree with their order of preference. I do believe, there are some other options, particularly those, where we do not have to consider the whole of Pakistan as one political entity.
As far as the discussion between you and Anujan ji goes wrt the weakness of the US, IMHO that is a discussion of how to mold our perception based on two different perspectives of the situation, rather than necessarily a disagreement about the facts on the ground, so I will defer on that.
Expanding on your preferences, I would humbly add a few points:
The main aim of the US in Af-Pak region is
1) to have the Pakistani Army at its beckoning (you mention this)
2) protect its echandee
3) get a few Al Qaeda types to show at home, that the fight against terrorism is going apace.
In order to protect its echandee, and for Al Qaeda No. 3s, its willing to pump the greenbacks up the backsides of the greeshirts. That is one reason why US is willing to finance the Pakistani Army.
So possible reasons are:
a) Fight Al Qaida et al
b) Keep India in check
c) Avoid the situation, that China takes over the Pakistani Army, which USA has so assiduously built up over the years.
d) Assure US access to Central Asia, for whatever reason, including engagement there with the regimes for crude Oil. If the regimes there find out, that US has lost logistical access to the region, they will fall back into the laps of Russia and may be China.
Is there a way to break the relationship between USA and Pakistani Army? That is the question! For that it may be important to see how one can nullify all these reasons.
a) Fight Al Qaida: Now the US knows that the Pakistani Army is hardly fighting the whole network that has come up there with all sorts of scorpions and snakes. But the American taxpayer still needs to be assured that the US Army is fighting the good war, the war against terrorism. That America is doing something. Al Qaida's No 3s may be a laughing stock on BRF, but they are vital importance to the sense of security of Americans.
Secondly BHO and HRC swear on 'smart power'. Something they are not really applying in Pakistan, as the RoI is getting skewed against them. This is the BIG SECRET in Washington, and the politicos want to keep it that way. The military want to keep it that way, because of the largesse to the military (but lets not go there).
The article from London School of Economics was a big exposé from a respectable source of the double crossing of Pakistanis. That is why there were quick denials of its credibility from Washington. Washington's bluff needs to be called and some have started doing just that.
The Europeans know that they don't know what they are still doing in Afghanistan. One day you are fighting the Taliban. Next day you want to talk to them. One day you catch them. Next day you let them go. European soldiers are dying and getting maimed and for what? The mission of doing nation-building in Afghanistan is off the table. The mission of destroying Islamic extremists in Afghanistan is off the table. The mission of stopping drug trade arising from Afghanistan is off the table. So what is left anymore? The Europeans want to get out. It is in Europe that the bluff needs to be called: that the Americans have lost a credible partner in the war against terror in Pakistan, and without Pakistan's cooperation the chances of NATO's have dwindled into nothing.
So the story about the double-crossing Pakistanis needs to flashed incessantly around the world, and that too from respectable institutions. If the coalition breaks, US will not stay much longer in Afghanistan. The question that arises, is how would US leave Afghanistan, in whose hands. From India's PoV, this should never be in Pakistan's hands. The story about Pakistan's double-crossing would help in that regard. The people of NATO countries should know, that their sons fell in Afghanistan because of Pakistan's double crossing. Some regimes, especially Britain would want to hand everything over to Pakistanis and get out, simply because that is the quickest way and saves them some echandee, but these stories about Pakistan's double crossing should make the Europeans think, that it is better to get out of Afghanistan without any such rubbish arrangements and echandee doesn't matter much.
Can the Indians help in prodding and getting European media and research institutions to print damning material on Pakistanis and their double-cross, articles of the same quality as LSE?!! American media may or may not indulge.
b) As far as the theory of US using Pakistani Army to keep India in check goes, I personally believe that MMS has done enough chaaploosi of USA to have that as a US priority.
c) The other question is, what happens if the Pakistani Army falls in the hands of the Chinese. To go into that, I would have to have the confidence, that the Pakistani Army would survive that long.
d) Access to Central Asia is something to which there are no easy options, or is Kashmir one such option. I don't know, how that can be tackled. Unless of course, US sees that all this engagement with Central Asia was for nothing, and Russia will have monopoly over the Oil and other minerals regardless of whether USA is engaged or not. The CARs probably already know that the Emperor is naked.