Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

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Rudradev
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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Rudradev » 30 Jun 2010 07:07

dingyibvs wrote: However, don't expect them to be so quick in admitting conventional defeat. If the situation is indeed as you stated, which I think is ludicrous BTW given current day Chinese attitudes, that a weak Chinese leader managed to piss off the people and lose a significant border conflict with India, then you can expect a conventional escalation. Just as you had assumed, he will have no room to back down, so expect something just short of total war from China to take back any lost territory. That is the only way for the CCP to preserve itself since either admitting defeat or going nuclear means self-destruction. Manufacturing capabilities will be important then, as well as wealth. So once again, I ask, is India up to the task?


Dingyibvs, for a student of Sun Tzu, you easily forget the Far Emperor :)

China doesn't have infinite resources. If it is facing a conventional loss in Aksai Chin or Tawang, and decides to go for total war against India to save its face... what a golden opportunity that will provide for the United States. While China pours billions into its total war effort, the US will be overjoyed, and encourage them to spend more and lose more in the easiest way possible... by supplying India with everything it needs to prolong the war for as long as China tries to fight it.

You hype the economic clout of China with Western powers and claim they might engage in "war profiteering" with India in case of an India-China war. No doubt China's production capacity will exceed India's... but the United States' exceeds China's. And the United States continues to supply even little Taiwan with the latest weapons in its arsenal... despite all the fuss and noise about China's economic clout, Beijing hasn't been able to do a thing about that.

Do you really think the US will pass up such an opportunity to set China back by many, many decades as a strategic competitor? What better opportunity for the Americans to achieve this, than to arm and aid India to retaliate pound for pound against China's "total war?" It will boost the American economy and not one American life will be lost. The Americans will get to see all their latest weapons systems in action against the much-vaunted Chinese military machine. By the end of it China's economy will be depleted to exhaustion. And there will be no superpowerdom for China for another century to come, at least.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ShauryaT » 30 Jun 2010 07:32

Prem Kumar wrote:ShauryaT: its not an outlandish plan but rather a way of escalating without crossing the threshold. Remember that PRC also has self preservation instincts.
Like what? look guys, I am really, really serious, if you do not accept my views, I will just nuke you to smithereens. War is a serious affair, Nuke war is analogous to annihilation of a nation or a civilization. You simply do not go from war over territory or other strategic gains to a war of annihilation. There are escalation steps. Between these steps is room for conventional warfare. All military forces believe in this concept. You do not jump ladders for any reason or just because someone's a** is getting squeezed in an empty plateau. In this game, there is no room for empty threats.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ShauryaT » 30 Jun 2010 07:36

Shiv: BC does have a tendency to exaggerate and I have even detected mistakes in his articles. But, overall, we need at least ONE person, to present the extreme case. His case is unlikely to ever become reality, but even if we come close, we will be far better than where things are today. So, all in all, I support his views.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby DavidD » 30 Jun 2010 08:17

Rudradev wrote:
Dingyibvs, for a student of Sun Tzu, you easily forget the Far Emperor :)

China doesn't have infinite resources. If it is facing a conventional loss in Aksai Chin or Tawang, and decides to go for total war against India to save its face... what a golden opportunity that will provide for the United States. While China pours billions into its total war effort, the US will be overjoyed, and encourage them to spend more and lose more in the easiest way possible... by supplying India with everything it needs to prolong the war for as long as China tries to fight it.

You hype the economic clout of China with Western powers and claim they might engage in "war profiteering" with India in case of an India-China war. No doubt China's production capacity will exceed India's... but the United States' exceeds China's. And the United States continues to supply even little Taiwan with the latest weapons in its arsenal... despite all the fuss and noise about China's economic clout, Beijing hasn't been able to do a thing about that.

Do you really think the US will pass up such an opportunity to set China back by many, many decades as a strategic competitor? What better opportunity for the Americans to achieve this, than to arm and aid India to retaliate pound for pound against China's "total war?" It will boost the American economy and not one American life will be lost. The Americans will get to see all their latest weapons systems in action against the much-vaunted Chinese military machine. By the end of it China's economy will be depleted to exhaustion. And there will be no superpowerdom for China for another century to come, at least.


Oh it's a misunderstanding, I completely agree with what you said. What I meant by lost territory is large chunks of land in Tibet, not the disputed territories. If China loses a conventional war over the disputed territories, they'll just take it for now. No sense in going all out for a land where "not a blade of grass grows." India didn't see the logic in it in the 60's, and nothing about those areas has changed since then, so China won't see the logic in it now either. As I've stated before, the only benefactors in a large scale war between China and India would be Russia and the U.S. due to war profiteering.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby DavidD » 30 Jun 2010 08:24

ShauryaT wrote:
Prem Kumar wrote:ShauryaT: its not an outlandish plan but rather a way of escalating without crossing the threshold. Remember that PRC also has self preservation instincts.
Like what? look guys, I am really, really serious, if you do not accept my views, I will just nuke you to smithereens. War is a serious affair, Nuke war is analogous to annihilation of a nation or a civilization. You simply do not go from war over territory or other strategic gains to a war of annihilation. There are escalation steps. Between these steps is room for conventional warfare. All military forces believe in this concept. You do not jump ladders for any reason or just because someone's a** is getting squeezed in an empty plateau. In this game, there is no room for empty threats.


You're wasting your breath man, without actually coming face to face with annihilation, there are many who can drum up the bravado to support such an action. People like that seem to get more common these days, probably because of the relative peace across the globe the past few decades. I hope that the world doesn't become like Europe circa 1914, when a few decades of relative peace caused people to forget the horrors of war, resulting in many countries going to war for no ideals and no necessities.
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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 30 Jun 2010 08:58

dingyibvs wrote: without actually coming face to face with annihilation, there are many who can drum up the bravado to support such an action. People like that seem to get more common these days, probably because of the relative peace across the globe the past few decades.


The people who believe that nuclear threats are "bravado" are just the correct people on whom nuclear threats should be used. If they have guessed right they are lucky. If they guess wrong they lose unless they too are ready with nukes. There is rationality here, not irrationality. You can never say you weren't warned.

For India the peace that you allege the world has seen is non existent and you are basically talking through your hat. The last Chinese soldier to be killed in combat was a few decades ago. The Chinese have forgotten what combat is. You are a Chinese in the US and obviously you don't see a US war (with US combat deaths) as your war, but you see Chinese peace as your peace. That is an interesting psychological twist that I accuse Indian Americans of carrying. A kind of split mind where some part is American and another part is not.

To my Indian mind 11 years does not constitute a "few decades". It was in 1999 that Pakistan threatened India with nuclear war. For that reason my mind thinks differently about nuclear war. My mind says "Pakistan got those nukes with Chinese help. And now China has had peace. And I am jealous. How do I spoil China's fun? The best way is to threaten to nuke China. If the Chinese think it is bluff and bravado - so be it. Nuclear weapons are so serious that a person who threatens with nukes should be taken seriously. If he is dismissed as a person who is posturing - it makes no difference to the person who is making the threat, but it could make one heck of a difference to the person who dismissed it as bravado.

In other words a nuclear threat puts a person in a "Heads I win. Tails you lose" position I am certain that Chicom planners in China know this although a Chinese sitting in America with mixed ambiguous loyalties may not see it that way. Why do you think India is developing China specific missiles? Bravado? . Because India has had peace for several decades? Those missiles will not reach America so you are safe.

If someone theratens to nuke you, you have to threaten to nuke back. If you laugh it off as posturing or bravado the other party has the initiative of either sparing you or making an example of you. Looks like you have not thought this thing through fully. Too much peace in your neighborhood? Not enough threats?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Manish_Sharma » 30 Jun 2010 16:15

munna wrote:Ahh! So the Indian PM will be hauled to Hague, simply not possible without complete obliteration of Indian forces and that in turn will not take place until we exhaust all the diwali patakhas. And if its the final case then this world will not be a place worth living in any case :wink:


But Munna still I would make that choice as it will shift the blame on an individual and not demonise indian people and spare them sanctions etc.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Venkarl » 30 Jun 2010 17:01

Interesting thread...thanks to OP and contributors.

...the latest orders from GoI to defense forces to be prepared for 2 front war is a good move irrespective of such a possibility...

if such a phenomena is indeed in progress...my naive views are as follows

1) it is seemingly illogical for Chinese to go on an all out offensive with India...as they cannot afford to indulge itself in a war with a regional power while they aspire to put up a strong front against US backed nations on its east coast....it is another matter whether they'll win/lose/stalemate against India...point is...it will cost them hugely setting them way back than required levels to compete with US and NATO.
Instead
2) They always have an option of doing some diversionary tactics along the Indo-China border..like mobilizing their formations...may be they'll heat up their west bound missile silos to create some panic in Indian establishment...
3) They will obviously use their proxy porkies by pumping in money, weapons, equipment and intelligence to them.
4) They might even signal their strategic arm (maoists) in the heartland of India to intensify their operations against civilian security forces and other targets like railway lines, military posts, BSF etc. to create some internal unrest.
5) There might be a heavy presence of Chinese submarines in Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal with their ships stationed at straits of importance in south east asian waters.
6) Stirring up disturbances in NE region will also be on their list.
7) All this will put pressure on us resulting in a split in the Indian focus which may benefit their proxy prokies and Chinese...if not properly tackled by Indian civil and military leaders.
8) Meanwhile pakis famous for being suicidal, will consume itself anyway..but Indian forces' strength may be depleted by X number.
9) China might use this weak moment to their advantage and bring wounded India to the table on Indo-China border negotiations and make an offer which India cannot refuse.

What can we do?
1) Like popular choice of BRF, nullify India's NFU stance.
2) Declare National Emergency.
3) Maoists and Naxals should be annihilated by then..should they decline GoI's offer to them of joining Indian Army's 1st/2nd/3rd{will leave it to you jingos} line of defense.
4) Separate its 3 defense forces to 3 wings: Wing 1 for Pakistan, Wing 3 for China and Wing 2 as a reserve in central India which could serve wing 1 or wing 3 based on orders. The separation should be absolute...no question of W1 divisions being diverted to W3 areas or vice versa.
5) Shut down Chinese owned companies like ZTE, Huwei etc on Indian territories.
6) Bring up the alert levels of both east and west bound missile systems and deep strike bombers.
7) While we hold the Chinese aggressive stance...bomb the hell out of pakis side of Khunjerab Pass...cut their land connection with China...and aim to re-unite the POK and NA with J&K state. Till this objective is achieved we say STFU to West..and then talk of cease fire et al.

As an Indian, I want the next Indo-Pak war to not only cut Paki-Chini land connection but India to have access to Afghan border which will of course play a major role in pursuing greater interests in India's favor and establish the land route to the airbase in Tajikistan.

my humble thoughts only....I have not gone into technicalities as I know not much about it...I also didn't touch upon how US, EU and Russia would react....but for the worst case sake..did not consider them...well it'd be interesting what role the other nations play....maybe you Gurus can pour in more.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby bhavik » 30 Jun 2010 17:07

Best way right now for India is to win more Asian allies who feel threatened by Chinese and whom we can help in various ways
- Taiwan
- Vietnam, Japan
- Malaysia, Thailand
- South Korea
- Even our neighbours who have begun to lean towards chipanda Srilanka/bangladesh need to be made aware of consequences.

Clearly send message if China does not stop military assitance to pakis, we may also consider taiwan and other asian friends eligible for all possible defence help we can provide.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Kanson » 30 Jun 2010 17:28

shiv wrote:
dingyibvs wrote: without actually coming face to face with annihilation, there are many who can drum up the bravado to support such an action. People like that seem to get more common these days, probably because of the relative peace across the globe the past few decades.


The people who believe that nuclear threats are "bravado" are just the correct people on whom nuclear threats should be used. If they have guessed right they are lucky. If they guess wrong they lose unless they too are ready with nukes. There is rationality here, not irrationality. You can never say you weren't warned.

For India the peace that you allege the world has seen is non existent and you are basically talking through your hat. The last Chinese soldier to be killed in combat was a few decades ago. The Chinese have forgotten what combat is. You are a Chinese in the US and obviously you don't see a US war (with US combat deaths) as your war, but you see Chinese peace as your peace. That is an interesting psychological twist that I accuse Indian Americans of carrying. A kind of split mind where some part is American and another part is not.

To my Indian mind 11 years does not constitute a "few decades". It was in 1999 that Pakistan threatened India with nuclear war. For that reason my mind thinks differently about nuclear war. My mind says "Pakistan got those nukes with Chinese help. And now China has had peace. And I am jealous. How do I spoil China's fun? The best way is to threaten to nuke China. If the Chinese think it is bluff and bravado - so be it. Nuclear weapons are so serious that a person who threatens with nukes should be taken seriously. If he is dismissed as a person who is posturing - it makes no difference to the person who is making the threat, but it could make one heck of a difference to the person who dismissed it as bravado.

In other words a nuclear threat puts a person in a "Heads I win. Tails you lose" position I am certain that Chicom planners in China know this although a Chinese sitting in America with mixed ambiguous loyalties may not see it that way. Why do you think India is developing China specific missiles? Bravado? . Because India has had peace for several decades? Those missiles will not reach America so you are safe.

If someone theratens to nuke you, you have to threaten to nuke back. If you laugh it off as posturing or bravado the other party has the initiative of either sparing you or making an example of you. Looks like you have not thought this thing through fully. Too much peace in your neighborhood? Not enough threats?


Good One Sirji. It could be the lesson for the Pakis who use the word N at the drop of hat. We must be explicit in stating that if Pak attack us with N we will attack China with N weapon. Glad that atleast we come to this level of openness in declaring two front war.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Kanson » 30 Jun 2010 17:39

Venkarl wrote: What can we do?
1) Like popular choice of BRF, nullify India's NFU stance.

As i said before, India has not shied away in thinking abt the first strike. Just go throu this.
http://www.saag.org/common/uploaded_files/paper604.html
No First Use (NFU) Pledge by India on Use of Nuclear Weapons: Other than the very bland comment by Indias Defence Minister that India will continue with this pledge as a policy formulation, no effort has been made by the Indian Government to assure the country on the reasons for this rigidity. Especially so, when press reports indicate that the outgoing National Security Advisory Board had made a recommendation that India should dispense with this pledge.


In January 2000, the American publication DEFENSE NEWS carried a report quoting an Indian Foreign Ministry Official as saying: 'No First Strike policy does not mean India will not have a first strike capability. The foundation of deterrence is based on having overwhelming superiority over the enemy to launch nuclear strikes. I would say we are working towards having a first strike capability, but how to exercise this option within the no first strike policy will be the subject of political decision making.


As you can see that there was a recommendation from the Board for the first strike and that will be based on the political decision irrespective of the stated NFU policy.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ajit_tr » 30 Jun 2010 18:18

Prem wrote:Indian defence forces have always trained for 1 1.2 war so there is no srprise here if Poakie and chinese act together. Hold China while creaming the Poakis have always been the policy. The nightmere scenario will be if PRC froces actually lands in Lahore but that will then start World War 3 and Poakies are not that worth for PRC. Poakie loose again.
Do you think that india is worth enough for the world to spill their blood in ww-3.India has lost importance to world after partition.Pakistan is more importan for world to advance their strategic interests than india.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 30 Jun 2010 19:21

This is how I see it. Every war and crisis India has seen from 1962 have been from a China-Pakistan combination. Right from 1965 India has had to think of 2 front war.

Form 1964 onward India has had to contend with a nuclear armed China
From 1986 India has had to contend with a nuclear armed Pakistan
In 1999 India was actually threatened with nuclear war.

Why the hell should we even think of losing men and territory to a combination attack from these two b#ench*dian mofos? ?

Imagine a life or death conventional struggle going on for weeks and months - indecisive like WW 1. What for? Why should India have to take this.

The correct thing to do is to stop buggering about and say we nuke you guys if you cooperate to attack India.

However it appears to me that the actual policy planned is to defeat them both conventionally and nuke them if they nuke us.

But does NFU take into consideration defeat in a 2 front war? Is India willing to get its ass kicked and lose territory just because we don't; want to use the single weapons that can cook Paki and Chinese ass and make Mughlai + Manchurian in one go?

No way. After all the Russiana already have this policy. No harm in taking a leaf out of their book. In war NFU can be thrown into the gutter. Why do we have to pretend to be so goddam dharmic that we will keep our word about NFU?

They must NEVER win a combined war. Or any war. Period.

Start with that conclusion in our minds first and foremost.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby sawant » 30 Jun 2010 20:57

ajit_tr wrote:Do you think that india is worth enough for the world to spill their blood in ww-3.India has lost importance to world after partition.Pakistan is more importan for world to advance their strategic interests than india.


OT but its a bit like that John Cusack disaster movie "2012" where no ship/flight comes to pick that Indian scientist... enough Indian gene pool in the western world anyway... they will be happy to do without a billion :wink:
But why bother if the world will save us or not... we are independent arent we? it's all upto us

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby sawant » 30 Jun 2010 21:04

bhavik wrote:Best way right now for India is to win more Asian allies who feel threatened by Chinese and whom we can help in various ways
- Taiwan
- Vietnam, Japan
- Malaysia, Thailand
- South Korea
- Even our neighbours who have begun to lean towards chipanda Srilanka/bangladesh need to be made aware of consequences.

Clearly send message if China does not stop military assitance to pakis, we may also consider taiwan and other asian friends eligible for all possible defence help we can provide.


I just wonder in case of a 2 front war... what happens to the stance of these peripheral states... do they accept Chinese ascendency or do they veer ever so more towards the US for protection.... or do they arm themselves with nukes as well... methinks a confrontation with India will only make Japan and others more suspicious and rigid and China may find itself in a less friendly neighbourhood than expected... it may just realize that it is feared for bullying and not for the economic strides it makes...not sure if they would want that ...

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Kanan » 30 Jun 2010 21:39

China is very much capable of inflicting REALLY HEAVY DAMAGE alone! IAF,IA and IN are in doldrums with archaic equipment and cannot match the the Chinese might! Also China has so much of unnaccounted expenditure that we cannot believe that China also has only archaic equipment! The Bottomline is:
1) India is not ready for a two front war! India would lose badly!

2) The two front war will push India over the brink and will end in nuclear catastrophe!

3) China,Pak and India all know this and hence chances of third party interference in a two nation war is very SLIM!!
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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Venkarl » 30 Jun 2010 22:06

Kanson wrote:As i said before, India has not shied away in thinking abt the first strike. Just go throu this.
http://www.saag.org/common/uploaded_files/paper604.html


Then I'd say...GoI should make that heard loud and clear officially....not through some think tanks.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Prem Kumar » 30 Jun 2010 23:31

ShauryaT wrote:
Prem Kumar wrote:ShauryaT: its not an outlandish plan but rather a way of escalating without crossing the threshold. Remember that PRC also has self preservation instincts.
Like what? look guys, I am really, really serious, if you do not accept my views, I will just nuke you to smithereens. War is a serious affair, Nuke war is analogous to annihilation of a nation or a civilization. You simply do not go from war over territory or other strategic gains to a war of annihilation. There are escalation steps. Between these steps is room for conventional warfare. All military forces believe in this concept. You do not jump ladders for any reason or just because someone's a** is getting squeezed in an empty plateau. In this game, there is no room for empty threats.



ShauryaT: let me make sure I understand what you are saying. Are you saying that if we do a nuke test as an escalation step, it will lead to nuclear war? If so, I disagree with you. It will actually serve the opposite purpose, which was why I proposed it - i.e. it can potentially stop the war, thereby saving us men, material and land. Mind you, I didnt say we use this as the very first step in escalation. I also stated that this is an option to exercise when things are going badly for us. So, in the escalation ladder, this is definitely a step IMO. And this step is better than the alternatives, which are:

a) Lose a conventional war

b) Nuke and get nuked in return

Well, this step might still fail, in which case we will have to go to (b) above. But at least we warned.

Now, why is a "test" important. That's because of the visual impact. When people think of Hiroshima, even though most are horrified at what happened, the horror is very antiseptic. You get a visceral sense of the horror only if you actually see the pictures & videos of the bomb and the victims. Same with cigarette smoking: its been proven that displaying the image of a lung ravaged by cancer is by far the most effective method of making people quit - because of the fear it creates.

Same situation here: nuclear deterrence can feel very antiseptic. Demonstrate an actual explosion in all its g(l)ory to gently remind the folks of what the next step in the escalation ladder looks like. The test also demonstrates an intent to use the weapon - which is an important requirement for deterrence to hold.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Kanson » 30 Jun 2010 23:38

Venkarl wrote:
Kanson wrote:As i said before, India has not shied away in thinking abt the first strike. Just go throu this.
http://www.saag.org/common/uploaded_files/paper604.html


Then I'd say...GoI should make that heard loud and clear officially....not through some think tanks.

It is better to have an ambiguity. It helps a lot. But at the sametime, you passed the messg by these leaks to your adversaries rather than raising unneccesary eyebrows, like Iran currently doing. Those want to know will know what you mean. Job finished.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby archan » 01 Jul 2010 00:46

Mr. K@n@n,
Please check your inbox and respond to the email address provided in the message at the earliest. Thanks.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby RamaY » 01 Jul 2010 01:21

dingyibvs wrote:Thats the biggest joke I heard all day. It seems you have no idea about the 10% GDP growth during recession. Its an inflation created by rampant investment in Real Estate creating a huge bubble, far bigger than Dubai or Greece. When exports fell, that was how 10% GDP growth achieved. If you wanna better understand what I am saying, you should hang out in the China Economy thread. Or economy gurus like RamaY explain to you. You have no idea how big risk this bubble carries.


I am no economics guru :oops: ... but I just have a data point (between 2007-08)

PRC Nominal GDP Growth
Country(Region)↓................ GDP 2007 (Billions USD)↓....... GDP 2008 (Billions USD)↓ ........ GDP growth↓
People's Republic of China ..... 3,382.445 ................................ 4,401.614 ............................. 30.13%


PRC Trade Balance
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2008 19.5 8.6 13.4 16.7 20.2 21.0 25.3 28.7 29.4 35.2 40.1 39.0 297.0
2007 15.9 23.8 6.9 16.9 22.5 26.9 24.4 25.0 23.8 27.1 26.3 22.7 261.9


So a cursory analysis will tell us that only $36B "nominal" GDP increase derived from exports in 2008 where as the overall nominal GDP grew by >$1T.

Other key factors that could have contributed to such a massive nominal GDP increase are
- Exchange rate
- RE bubble
- Internal consumption

One can do further research to get exact numbers but a $400B RE bubble is plausible in PRC.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby RamaY » 01 Jul 2010 01:32

dingyibvs wrote:Oh it's a misunderstanding, I completely agree with what you said. What I meant by lost territory is large chunks of land in Tibet, not the disputed territories. If China loses a conventional war over the disputed territories, they'll just take it for now. No sense in going all out for a land where "not a blade of grass grows." India didn't see the logic in it in the 60's, and nothing about those areas has changed since then, so China won't see the logic in it now either. As I've stated before, the only benefactors in a large scale war between China and India would be Russia and the U.S. due to war profiteering.


Unfortunately Tibet is a disputed territory, if not between India and PRC, but Tibet and PRC.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Raveen » 01 Jul 2010 02:03

dingyibvs wrote:

How much did America's GDP grow during that period? Anywhere even near 10% a year? Nope.



10% of $1 is not the same as 1% of $100; the GDPs were so disparate 10-15 years ago (the time period you made this statement about; plus no one really knows the real growth rate of Chine, not even IMF or the World Bank). Plus, we all like to drum up the sub-prime mortgage issue in the US, trust me when I say you would still be homeless in 2007 with no job and no money (the story would be differnet thought with a job and no money).

As far as cars go, well phone, internet and car penetration has also gone up SIGNIFICANTLY in India over the last decade and is growing at an amazing pace despite lacking the dictatorial communist style of China and therefore the state sponsored infrastructure and showpiece cities.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Kanan » 01 Jul 2010 05:54

Actually in the bygone financial year China grew at 10% and India 7.2%! The fastest and the second fastest growing economies! But to be honest we are like a Maruthi 800 doing 72 mph but they are like a Mercedes M class doing 100mph!

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 01 Jul 2010 06:23

K@nn@n wrote:
2) The two front war will push India over the brink and will end in nuclear catastrophe!




As long as the catastrophe involves China and Pakistan (with or without India) i am fine with this. Both China and Pakistan have grabbed Indian territory in the past and have shared it among themselves

Never, never again.

The last thing we should be thinking of is catastrophe for India alone, loss of territory, loss of life and intact Indian nuclear weapons waiting to be used while Pakistan and China do lungi dance on India's remains

That is the most humongously and phenomenally stupid thing if we allow it to occur.

Indians as a people must brace for this. No point blaming leaders because leaders are elected from the people and the leaders think like the people. The people and leaders think EXACTLY like this which is typical Indian shiver-me-dhoti statement, well known and well recognised by all:
China is very much capable of inflicting REALLY HEAVY DAMAGE alone! IAF,IA and IN are in doldrums with archaic equipment and cannot match the the Chinese might! Also China has so much of unnaccounted expenditure that we cannot believe that China also has only archaic equipment! The Bottomline is:
1) India is not ready for a two front war! India would lose badly!


Why the frug is everyone hell bent on shifting blame to "leaders" when we are like this? Pah.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby kit » 01 Jul 2010 06:39

K@nn@n wrote:Actually in the bygone financial year China grew at 10% and India 7.2%! The fastest and the second fastest growing economies! But to be honest we are like a Maruthi 800 doing 72 mph but they are like a Mercedes M class doing 100mph!


Precisely the reason why India must have thermonuclear weapons., a bit off the topic, but China will have sooo much to lose when a couple of Indian Hydrogen bombs land on their heads than the way bit smaller fission warheads at present.A two front war ., baby you got it.The strategic scenario changes when India fields fusion weapons even in the tens of missiles.
China wont prefer to attack India but let their dirty work done by PK while they cheer at the sidelines.Just because they could very well lose their economic infrastructure and lose their superpower status will prevent them from involving directly against India.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Kanan » 01 Jul 2010 12:23

archan wrote:Mr. K@n@n,
Please check your inbox and respond to the email address provided in the message at the earliest. Thanks.



I have replied to the e-mail! Plz get back to me if there anything at all! Thnx!!!

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Chandragupta » 01 Jul 2010 13:26

In events leading to a possible two front war, Indian leaders would do well to follow Nixon's madman theory. What's the harm in faking some instability in the balance of power in the country. I assume our PM is not the best man to be portrayed as an unstable leader, reading war tales of Shri Guru Gobind Singh ji every night to sleep & talking about nuclear warfare with a straight face, but such a leader can be created by a chankian GoI. Let him make some noise, pretend that the ruling party is split & our good doctor could be sidelined by hawks in the event of a war, mate some nuclear warheads with A3s and point them towards China. I will eat my hawai chappal if China does not end up doing a huge browning of pants ceremony like Pakistan.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Telang » 01 Jul 2010 13:31

There will be no total wars in the foreseeable future between nations on the same scale as WW II. Defeating an adversary nation is done well before any war starts by openly demonstrating both the CAPABILITY and the WILL to defeat such adversary.

In 1971 there was no capability to defeat China but THE WILL WAS ABUNDANTLY EXHIBITED, by extensive preparations to take on China and by very agressive patrolling on the indo-tibetan border. And by God, with what ever capability we had, we would have taken on China till the last man and last bullet in 1971, while simultaneously dealing with Pukistan. The Chinese knew it because we were itching to take on them and that "Itch" was amply demonstrated to every Chinese soldier who used to move almost shoulder to shoulder with our patrolling parties. The then Chinese leadership did not miss noticing this WILL TO FIGHT on our part.

Typically the Indian Hizda Political leadership of the kind of MMS demonstrates such covardice and lack of will to fight that even if we had all the nuclear weapons in the world with us, our enemies would feel encouraged to tickle our bottom just with the confidene that the Indian political leadership would not use even fire crakers, leave alone nulear weapons.

So, first gather WILL and demonstrate it amply and loudly. That should take care 99% of victory effort.
Last edited by archan on 01 Jul 2010 22:41, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: user warned. Indulge in criticism but with decency.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby blueleaf » 01 Jul 2010 13:36

No, we are of course not ready for a two front war. Pakistanis send terrorists to our major cities and kill hundreds, we are not in a position to even punish those terrorists and here in military forums we discuss about taking on Pakistan and China at once. Ha ha ha. China is atleast 2 decades ahead of us, so lets stop dreaming about a two front-war. We can't even train our CRPF people to face the Naxals and we talk of big things. If some one sees these forums they will spit at us...day dreamers. See whats going to happen to us once US moves out of Afghanistan. Let us discuss things that are more realistic in nature...like how to tackle afghanistan reaction next year etc.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby blueleaf » 01 Jul 2010 13:40

we will be crushed in such a situation and we will loose control of Kashmir, North east, tamil nadu. Huge losses in Gujarat , Punjab and rajhastan. Civil war will break out in allmost all major states of India with naxal leaders leading the revolt. Naxals will start attacking Public assets and police station in Major Towns and cities and most muslims will align with the invading forces. India as a country will break down into some 10-15 smaller regions. Jai Hind.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Chandragupta » 01 Jul 2010 13:44

You missed the Pakistani flag hoisting ceremony at the Red Fort, the naming of the subcontinent as Pakistan, the change in Mumbai's name to Muslimabad etc etc..

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Venkarl » 01 Jul 2010 14:30

Kanson wrote:It is better to have an ambiguity. It helps a lot. But at the sametime, you passed the messg by these leaks to your adversaries rather than raising unneccesary eyebrows, like Iran currently doing. Those want to know will know what you mean. Job finished.


Maintaining ambiguity is good bhayya...but what purpose is it serving? except we BRFites discuss about that till 25th hour...If there is an absolute mandate of No-NFU....the message is enough clear....like Iran as you've said...recent reports are suggesting that Iran has NF to make 2 bombs and it is openly threatening to wipe Israel if there is any attack from US/NATO. Still no US/NATO/Israeli action on that except UN sanctions. And Iran pulled it off nicely with the help of Turkey and Brazil..and Russia's hidden help...I think their clear mandate is helping them...otherwise...Iran would have become Oil-Walmart for the west..ditto with Noko...a power like USA couldn't do anything :lol:

According to me the ambiguity should not be between NFU or No-NFU...it should rather be at what stage of a war the Indian nukes will be used...this ambiguity will actually make our foes to re-think their plans....

With no-NFU announced, the moment Paki or Chini forces advance their formations..and both being nuclear nations..we have a valid reason to ready our nuclear vehicles to code red...now this is the info that should leak..signaling our foes to halt...if they don't..they are only risking of getting nuked..now question is will they afford to get nuked? With 2 hostile nuclear nations on either side...we cannot afford to be soft and let them take our land piece by piece...

My humble opinions Kanson..educate me if this line of thinking is not better for India.
Last edited by Venkarl on 01 Jul 2010 15:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby rohitvats » 01 Jul 2010 14:34

K@nn@n wrote:China is very much capable of inflicting REALLY HEAVY DAMAGE alone! IAF,IA and IN are in doldrums with archaic equipment and cannot match the the Chinese might! Also China has so much of unnaccounted expenditure that we cannot believe that China also has only archaic equipment! The Bottomline is: <SNIP>


Sir, please explain the profound thinking and logic behind this statement? Thanx.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Venkarl » 01 Jul 2010 15:11

@blueleaf

Your posts would have been sensible if your handle was some greenleaf or redleaf.

Regards,
Orangeleaf

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby VikB » 01 Jul 2010 15:33

^^^ Junta - ignore the trolls

Came across the famous Schlieffen Plan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schlieffen_Plan that was essentially Germany preparing to fight on Eastern and Western fronts before the WW 1. Basic funda - defeat France quickly on the West and rush forces from there to the Russian (East) side. This was jeopardized by counter attack on Paris by the French and rapid offensive by the Russians. This lead to the invention of the long drawn out 'trench warfare'. Schlieffen's last words were "remember to keep the right flank strong" which though it seems was not adhered to.

The best way to counter a two-front war - Break Pak ASAP. Probably immediately nuke them to Hoor-land plus dig-in on the Eastern Himalayan front. I have been to Tawang and the surrounding area and trust me, forget about 1000 surprise cruise missile attack, even 10,000 wont be able to take out the defensive positions there. The only way to take land there is by having boots-on-the-ground. For defenders, it is always an advantage as they work from built up positions. The 4 new mountain divisions and better road network are the right things to do. Once the new artillery, radar, SAM, Agni are in place - it is bye-bye to Chini dreams.

I think China realises this. They attempted to try some things a few months back when they intruded in to our territory on ground and by air but for some unknown (to me) reasons, they could not execute what I think they had set themselves to achieve. Most probably they wanted a Kargil like situation. Something stopped them - just struck me - maybe a timely warning from Uncle Sam to us. Maybe that is why we are bending backward to accept their defence maal lock-stock-and-barrel. All conjecture thinking by me.

It is with this that the 4 front war is even more plausible. Not today, but in future. We have to be watchful. Engaging the Bangladeshi Army and politicos is good thing. So is building bridges with Myanmar. If we remember the situation a few years ago and observe - Bangla was going Paki way and Nepal was under siege. Both the places are still hotspots yet we surely have pulled back some what in last about 2 years.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby VikB » 01 Jul 2010 15:46

A related thought. Imagine that we have ZERO trouble on Western side. Imagine the entire might of Indian Army, Air force and Navy just required to handle China. What do you think will happen? Does it not look like that even a Tibetian liberation is possible! I surely think so.

We have to become the hawks. Right now we are the rabbits which the hawk (China) is waiting to ensnare. One weakness, one looseness from our currently perilious balance and we can be assured of an attack.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 01 Jul 2010 16:19

blueleaf wrote:we will be crushed in such a situation and we will loose control of Kashmir, North east, tamil nadu. Huge losses in Gujarat , Punjab and rajhastan. Civil war will break out in allmost all major states of India with naxal leaders leading the revolt. Naxals will start attacking Public assets and police station in Major Towns and cities and most muslims will align with the invading forces. India as a country will break down into some 10-15 smaller regions. Jai Hind.


Ah! Gotcha.

Pakiiiiiiii!!!! :mrgreen:

But I did enjoy your post. You were Indian apart from that slip up. This is the level of confidence that a lot of Indians have. You Pakis took confidence with you when you cut and ran. But then you were left with too much.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Manish_Sharma » 01 Jul 2010 16:25

rohitvats wrote:
K@nn@n wrote:China is very much capable of inflicting REALLY HEAVY DAMAGE alone! IAF,IA and IN are in doldrums with archaic equipment and cannot match the the Chinese might! Also China has so much of unnaccounted expenditure that we cannot believe that China also has only archaic equipment! The Bottomline is: <SNIP>


Sir, please explain the profound thinking and logic behind this statement? Thanx.


Rohit welcome, I have been waiting for you and Vivek Ahuja to visit this thread. Finally some guderian has provoked you :D I have two questions:

1.) How would India fair as lasting of weaponery/ammunition/fuel/rasadwise for a month long war on both the fronts. As I am reminded that we didn't have ample stock during kargil and had to get from Russi/Israeli stock.

2.) How much damage it will be for chinese if we take out their myamar port and gwadar port + 5 merchant and 3 big oil tankers?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Manish_Sharma » 01 Jul 2010 16:28

shiv wrote:
blueleaf wrote:we will be crushed in such a situation and we will loose control of Kashmir, North east, tamil nadu. Huge losses in Gujarat , Punjab and rajhastan. Civil war will break out in allmost all major states of India with naxal leaders leading the revolt. Naxals will start attacking Public assets and police station in Major Towns and cities and most muslims will align with the invading forces. India as a country will break down into some 10-15 smaller regions. Jai Hind.


Ah! Gotcha.

Pakiiiiiiii!!!! :mrgreen:

But I did enjoy your post. You were Indian apart from that slip up. This is the level of confidence that a lot of Indians have. You Pakis took confidence with you when you cut and ran. But then you were left with too much.

:rotfl:

good catch Doc, what would BR do without you!

Dear Porki blueleaf please comeout of your hole!


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