Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby JimmyJ » 28 Jun 2010 17:23

dingyibvs wrote:Pakistan provokes a border conflict, which fails but in the process causing enough collateral damage so that India would not be satisfied with simply resetting at the LOC and advances into Pakistan proper. China, fearing that Pakistan would resort to nuclear weapons and initiate a nuclear war that may very well involve itself, decides to intervene conventionally on Pakistan's behalf. The U.S. and Russia do not want a nuclear war either, but they'd love for China and India to weaken themselves in the conflict, so they decide to stay out of it at least overtly for the time being.


Using this logic how would you explain Kargil ? Didn't those days present the same opportunity for the India, China, US and Russia? China could have kicked India easier, the superpowers could have nipped Indian and China in the bud.

Or do you have any expansion of this collateral damage that India would not digest, even after 3/12 and 26/11. Please avoid the nuke option as it would have already taken the war to a different platform.

Also in an all out war is there anything which prevents India to switch to a First Use policy, after all policies are just policies that can be changed at any point of time. Shouldn't a wise leader be wary of that fact when going into a war against a nuke nation?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 28 Jun 2010 19:01

ShauryaT wrote:One traditional area where, such a two front war will make strategic sense for TSP and PRC, is Kashmir and Ladakh.

PRC could seek to control the Karakoram pass to link with the ceded Shaksgam valley and Aksai Chin and seek control of Siachen glacier, along with a deep thrust, to occupy the entire rain shadow region of Ladakh, upto Zoji La.

Meanwhile TSP, focuses on the valley.

PRC and TSP could manage to keep the US and Russia at bay, where they essentially do not interfere, beyond advise for restraint.

All of the battle is in officially "disputed" territory.

There is no guarantee that India will go nuclear. Let us leave the nuclear option out for it changes the risk profile dramatically.


Shaurya if we talk about "traditional" areas, India will open up other fronts to take Pakistani pressure off Kashmir.

The terrain on the Chinese side is almost unnavigable and China would have to make a diversionary attack in the east - say in Arunachal Pradesh to split Indian forces because the terrain they face in that region is deadly - with very long and very thin logistics lines unless they can link up with Pakistan.

The other thing that I foresee is that there will be a lot more use of air power than in old battles. India will aim for air dominance in that region. The best bet for Chinese aircraft would be to operate out of Pakistan, but such an escalation would mean a sea battle as well - with ports and ships getting whacked.

I don't see a "prolonged" struggle if a war gets that big. If India decided to do a quick job of splitting Pakistan while the going is good - either the nuclear question arises or India faces only one adversary. India has, as you know planned to split Pakistan in an intense war for a long time and that option is always open.

The gamble of making a war wider depends on whether we are going to lose in a narrow conflict or whether we can prevail. In 1965 the war was escalated because India found the pressure from Pakistan in operation Grand slam very high. No such pressure existed in 1999 so the war front was not made wider.

Just one of many scenarios that can arise I guess. Everything being subject to the usual disclaimers of leadership and money being put into the right places. And karma.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Vashishtha » 28 Jun 2010 20:35

nukavarapu, superb post buddy!!!
One can only hope that the neighbors are not foolish to do something that stupid, that we lose any of the two above mentioned factors.

Both have understood these so i guess its gonna be a slow and steady un-conventional war.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby aditya.agd » 28 Jun 2010 20:59

With no Submarines and aircraft numbers depleting, how can India have even a chance to defend themselves against a combined Pak-China attack?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Chandragupta » 28 Jun 2010 21:17

aditya.agd wrote:With no Submarines and aircraft numbers depleting, how can India have even a chance to defend themselves against a combined Pak-China attack?


Is that supposed to be a question or a conclusion or a disguised prophecy? I am confused onlee. :-?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Vinod Ji » 28 Jun 2010 21:22

Hey Come on guys you are kidding.. not only we are ready but assured of winning with one caveat.. place time and fronts of our choosing.. YEAH Baby!!!

come on Bhutan!!! come on ???? :eek: heck where is SIKKIM !! :-? GOD!! I am still living in 20th century!! OK Now let us be serious. :idea: we are ready for one front war !! with caveat our choosing the front!! :twisted:

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby sachin_b_k » 28 Jun 2010 21:51

Desh bendhuo,

Let us examine a few current developments:

1. Pakistani Army chief and spy chief on frequent trips to Pakistan and have carried Haqqani (Siraj) on a recent one for holding talks with Karzai (Afghan PM), without taking US in confidence (http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/06/afghan_president_mee.php).

2. Pakistan resisting all American pressure for action in N Waziristan. (http://www.longwarjournal.com, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LF22Df01.html, newyorktimes, Washington post). Pakistan has used and is using LeT cum Haqqani network in Afghanistan to target Indian strategic targets (embassies, personnel, projects). Pakistan has wriggled out of 26/11 without any action against LeT, JuD, ISI and not much US pressure for action.

3. Afghan PM agreeing to accommodate Taliban and give Pakistani strategic depth vis a vis for retaining power after American withdrawal circa mid 2011 (same as above)

4. Pakistan declaring that F-16 can be used against all adversaries( [url]http://dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\06\28\story_28-6-2010_pg7_3[/url])

5. China and Pak nuke deal on Chasma not overtly opposed at NSG. Only indirect reference. India not happy with response but helpless as its not part of NSG (times of india). Indian editors (beta.thehindu.com) trying to spin this by saying India should accept and even encourage Chasma III and IV!

6. Intense protests in Sopore, Baramulla, Srinagar over a few killings allegedly by security forces. (times of india, Indian express, ndtv, dawn, bbc)

What do the above events show us?

This is in conjunction to my hypothesis on “Pakistani cold war (action) backed by Chinese covert blackmail (threat)” to take some part of Kashmir valley to humiliate India.

For any innovative hypothesis, its difficult to bring proofs by book simply because they have not been written. Such hypothesis needs to be tested by simple approach, connect the dots on the ground.

So , Pakistan has not taken any action on North Waziristan and is increasingly successful in getting strategic depth in Afghanistan in preparation of US exit. So, its making itself free of the AfPak nightmare and turning it into an advantage. Why? So that it can concentrate on the eastern front with India.

China went ahead with the Chasma III and IV after putting it in cold storage during the AfPak war. Why? To test its diplomatic leverage and also and more importantly Indian counter leverage. The result: the world silently allowed the open infringement of so called nuclear proliferation making china confident of its success in the world stage of its dominance and of the irrelevance of Indian opinion and strategic incompetence of Indian political leadership.

The Kashmir protests over the flimsiest of excuses and on a grand scale are continuing albeit increasing. They occur today headlines in all our papers and prominent coverage in international press. Kashmir is disputed and Kashmiris are unhappy with Indian rule and atrocities is the message Pakistan is succeeding in giving the world.

If someone has been following my earlier posts where I detailed the logic of my hypothesis these factual analysis are supporting it.

To summarise:
1. Pakistan is building military concentration on Eastern front with India.
2. Kashmir continues to be on boil and hundreds of terrorists on standby. There is a popular uprising against India beign projected by Pakistanis to the outside world.
3. China is openly supporting Pakistan on strategic controversional issues internationally with success.
4. Indian political leadership has been on defensive against the China and Pakistani political moves (2 and 3 above). No strategic innovative counterattack.

As my hypothesis puts it, all the above are part of the game plan. Connect the dots my friend. Do not shoot the messenger if you don’t like his message. I repeat, there was no Kargil written in any book. There is no mention of Pakistani cold doctrine either.

Please do NOT invoke nuclear scenario and insult Chinese intelligence. And please stop suggesting that Indian political leadership has factored all this for the facts speak for themselves.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ShauryaT » 28 Jun 2010 23:21

shiv wrote:
Shaurya if we talk about "traditional" areas, India will open up other fronts to take Pakistani pressure off Kashmir.
Which would be a smart move, to use Indian assets to capture territory, where we are stronger. However, it would mean likely defeat in the valley and Ladakh, due to splitting of Indian forces.

The terrain on the Chinese side is almost unnavigable and China would have to make a diversionary attack in the east - say in Arunachal Pradesh to split Indian forces because the terrain they face in that region is deadly - with very long and very thin logistics lines unless they can link up with Pakistan.
Agreed, it is the terrain that makes the risk/benefit ratio for PRC very challenging. Even in the 62 debacle the Ladakh front was better managed than the NE front. Having said that, China has built new infrastructure across the board and if there is any place where they could prove the benefits of this infrastructure, it is in being able to move significant forces to the area, if they manage to move forces overcoming the terrain difficulty, is not out of the question, including basing assets in TSP.

The other thing that I foresee is that there will be a lot more use of air power than in old battles. India will aim for air dominance in that region. The best bet for Chinese aircraft would be to operate out of Pakistan, but such an escalation would mean a sea battle as well - with ports and ships getting whacked.
True, unless the PLAN decides to approach the Bay, which splits Indian naval assets.

I don't see a "prolonged" struggle if a war gets that big. If India decided to do a quick job of splitting Pakistan while the going is good - either the nuclear question arises or India faces only one adversary. India has, as you know planned to split Pakistan in an intense war for a long time and that option is always open.
Actually, what you are showing is TSP is not likely to gain in such a war. Along with India they will loose too. PRC's gains will be of little value, if their client looses. In turn, reducing PRC's motivation for such a gamble.

The gamble of making a war wider depends on whether we are going to lose in a narrow conflict or whether we can prevail. In 1965 the war was escalated because India found the pressure from Pakistan in operation Grand slam very high. No such pressure existed in 1999 so the war front was not made wider.
Also a critique of India's military and political strategy to continue with similar ideas in today;s era. The military gains of 1965 or even 1971 that was gained through blood were not converted to a lasting peace, which is possible, only if the strategic capabilities of TSP (which is to collect rent) are degraded. (I have personally given up on the idea of having a peaceful TSP to work with a long time back) Cutting TSP by making a run across Sindh and lower Punjab is simply not viable in the nuclear era. Also, even if militarily Indian is able to cut TSP, what then? Unless, the aim is the dissolution of TSP, which i do not think it is, it does not make sense.

The modified doctrine of cold start, either seeks to punish TSP forces and/or seeks to capture salami slices with little strategic value. Both of these do not address the strategic capability of TSP to collect rent. For many of these and other reasons, I think the conventional focus needs to shift to degrading TSP strategic capability to collect rent. But, that would be OT.
Last edited by ShauryaT on 29 Jun 2010 01:54, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ramana » 29 Jun 2010 01:45

Today's Pioneer article

Be ready for two front war


Brace for two-front war, Army told

Rahul Datta | New Delhi

In an unprecedented move that has confirmed India’s concerns about China’s growing military might, the Government has for the first time given a directive in writing to the armed forces to enhance their military capabilities vis-a-vis the neighbouring country and prepare for a two-front war scenario with China and Pakistan.

Asking the armed forces to prepare themselves to fight simultaneous wars on the eastern and western fronts with China and Pakistan, Defence Minister AK Antony has directed the chiefs of Army, Navy and Air Force to rapidly modernise and upgrade their weapon systems and tone up operational preparedness.

The Services have been assured full support from the Government in this endeavour, sources said.

Explaining the significance of the directive, the sources maintained that it came against the backdrop of the armed forces’ apprehensions about the rapid modernisation programme of their Chinese counterparts. The directive will allow the armed forces to build capabilities to rapidly move troops from one theatre of war to the other by procuring more transport planes and improved rail and road network for ferrying weapons systems.

Modern warfare was all about speed, lethality and mobility and the directive would go a long way in helping the armed forces achieve this objective as soon as possible, the sources added.

The directive follows the Cabinet Committee on Security’s (CCS) nod to the Army to raise two more mountain divisions (each division has 10,000 troops) on the China front. With the focus on improving infrastructure, the Army was last year allowed to raise two mountain divisions. It means that in the next four or five years, it would have four divisions on the China front.

The Government has also removed the 10-year cap on recruitment and permitted the Army to go for fresh intakes. Coupled with this important development, the Government has cleared the proposal to acquire more than 200 Howitzer guns for these divisions through the foreign military sale route from the US.

“The Howitzer guns are light. These can be dismantled and carried on horseback or by helicopters to the remote and rugged terrain of Arunachal Pradesh and other such regions in Jammu & Kashmir where road infrastructure is non-existent,” sources said.

While the two-front war concept was in public domain and being discussed in seminars and TV debates, the political leadership had so far refrained from joining the debate. The recently-issued directive clearly indicates that the Government has finally heeded the concerns of the armed forces and given them unambiguous orders to go ahead and do the needful, sources said.

This decision would give the necessary momentum to the security establishment to improve the infrastructure, including all-weather roads right up to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and airports and helipads in remote regions of States like Arunachal Pradesh. In fact, the armed forces are already engaged in upgrading nearly 25 airports in the North-East and the project is likely to be over within the next two years.

India and China have a 5,000-km-long disputed border and the Chinese have over the years rapidly improved their logistical lines by building roads right up to their side of the LAC. India is in a disadvantageous position as the terrain on its side is hilly and building roads there takes more time than in the plains, sources said, adding that the slopes on the Chinese side are gentler.


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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ramana » 29 Jun 2010 01:47

^^ Guess right now India is not ready but is taking steps to become ready. Can we close the thread?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ShauryaT » 29 Jun 2010 03:35

ramana wrote:^^ Guess right now India is not ready but is taking steps to become ready.
Right now - even PRC is not "ready" to take on India, so as and when PRC is ready, so will be India. The statement if the media report is to be read accurately is an acknowledgment by the political leaderships of the warnings of General Deepak Kapoor made last year, that India will have to upgrade its infrastructure and speed up modernization of forces and does not have time on its side anymore.

I am not sure how much of this is a real fear of a two front war, which was always there in the background, so nothing really new and how much of this is a reaction to the modernization of PLA/N/AF and upgraded infrastructure. If I have to bet, I will bet on the latter.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 29 Jun 2010 07:25

India has a long history of "having its nose bloodied" and being shamed without retaliating, while Pakistan and to a smaller extent China has a history of "shaming India" for echandee without tangible gains.

As regards territorial losses and gains. The last combat territorial gains for China were in 1962 and for Pakistan they were in 1947-48. Has India made any territorial gains?

Both China and Pakistan are doing a "you farted" on India by claiming that India by just being there has already occupied their territory. Seen from this viewpoint India's minor "gains" in the absorption of Sikkim and the redefinition of the LoC to include Siachen are the only two "territorial adjustments" India has made. However see partition itself as "loss of their territory" so that is a different ball game.

I keep seeing references to "China wanting to keep India down". This assertion belongs in the same category as "India is aspiring for superpower status" .

May I ask all Indians whether they were even indoctrinated in school and in their early years that they should work for "superpower status" for India. I am not saying such indoctrination would have been wrong (or right). All I am saying is that it did not occur. The only thing Indians have been indoctrinated to believe from childhood is unity and equality. Not dominance and "screw the next guy". So who cooked up this "India's superpower aspirations" bogey and where did it come from?

"India's superpower ambition" did not exist just 20 years ago when I returned as an RNRI to an India 3 years before Finance Min. Manmohan Singh opened up India's economy under the PVNR government. India's Sri Lanka involvement was winding down, and the Kashmir terror campaign was about to start.However Rajiv Gandhi's action in the Maldives and Sri Lanka had opened a few eyes about India's military capability and there were accusations that "Brasstacks" a couple of years or so earlier was aimed at splitting Pakistan.

We talk so much about India's reputation and what raised eyebrows and made bad press abroad, and we all know that if India appeared aggressive it would be reported. I lived abroad and watched Op Blue Star, Indira Gandhi's funeral, launch of Agni I and India's entry into Sri Lanka from outside India. Also the fall of the Berlin wall and the start of Gulf War 1. India's entry to the Maldives and Sri Lanka were noted. There was hardly a chirp or a flutter about Brass Tacks. Either India's so called "invasion plans" were a total secret, or they were cooked up later to show india's belligerent intent. In those days, just 20 years ago, the question of India becoming a superpower did not arise. China was, at that time "not there yet".

In the last 20 years we have suddenly seen China becoming a superpower and India has been promoted to "aspiring superpower"? What? How? There seem to be people sitting around cooking up names and descriptions and actions to people that may or may not exist. If we are really serious (I will refer only to India) we find that India has so many poor and screwed up people that we can only become a third rate superpower based on soft strength alone. Look seriously at India's human development statistics. For at least the next 20 years India cannot become a superpower in terms of human development. Military wise - it remains only a regional power. As an economy India is a large second tier power. It will be decades of hard work to become a power, leave alone a superpower. Just because the USSR went down and the US is going down and India is rising relatively does not mean India is anywhere near superpower status.

But suddenly there is this new thing that has come up. "China is a superpower and is a jealous one. It is watching India rising to become a superpower and will do everything it can to keep India down" "China wants to be the only player in town but India is the new kid on the block with his shiny new six-shooter and is learning to be fast on the draw"- so that the world is going to see a drama like the US-USSR cold war except that it might turn hot.

In my opinion this is bullshit. before we talk of what sort of relationship India and China will have we have to ask what sort of powers they are and what they desire.

China with 1.3 billion people and India with 1.1 billion people will be making huge demands on the world's resources. If Indians and Chinese all lived like profligate Americans, there are not enough resources on earth for both countries to reach the level of excess consumption that America has reached. For that reason it is unlikely that either country will ever get their entire population to the level of wasteful excess that the ordinary American is accustomed to living with every day.

If you look at human development statistics (birth rate, mothers/infants dying at childbirth etc), and place Western Europe and Japan as rank 1, China has managed to reach 2, Indians are at 3. Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are also level with India at 3. Actually India may be 2.9 and Pakistan 3.1. That's all. China may be 2.1

Because India has embarked on a program of "uplifting the masses" and its economy has improved a bit - China and India are beginning to compete in some areas. These are:

1) Exports and markets: I am putting this at the top because I do not see this as a spark for hot war and just want to mention it.

2) Resources: the primary competition is oil. Oil prices and oil usage in the world are going haywire because of India and China. It started with China, but India's increase in consumption will obviously hit China and the rest of the world as well. If India consumes as much as China - oil will run out that much faster. The other problem is oil transport. Oil has tro travel a long way before it reaches China and a much shorter way before it reaches India. India military control over the Indian ocean is seen asa threat by China because of Chinese oil needs. Both the US and India are seen as "potentially against China" so oil flow is a Chinese concern. But India needs to keep her own oil lanes open. So India needs naval power - but that same naval power will serve as a threat to China's oil supplies. This is a potential war zone.

3) Water and environment: Between half and two-thirds of of China is either unlivable mountain or desert. The best areas of China are in the east and south east. But economic development has seen a migration of about 150 million Chinese from the hinterland to the cities of the east. China has scrambled desperately to use its resources with massive (and admirable) engineering projects like the three gorges dam and other projects to draw water are in the offing such as dams on the Brahmaputra and a linkage between the Brahmaputra and other Chinese rivers. It is well known that is some areas the Chinese have made a mess of their environment. The effects of these projects on India are unknown and unpredictable. These are a source of tension. But what kind of war can occur here? Unless india starts attacking Chinese engineering projects in China or Tibet why would China waste time fighting India over these projects?

4) Territory: Both the Chinese and the Pakistanis have somehow given themselves a vision of the territories they are supposed to own. And both countries have convinced themselves that they own territory in what is India today. Referring back to my earlier statement about what Indians (you and me) have been taught in school - none of us have been given a vision of grievance where we are pining for territories outside India that we must reclaim. Maybe this is a handicap, because both the Chinese and Pakistanis seem to have that mindset.

For Pakistan a gain of India territory will be like the scent of blood to a shark. But Indian territory for China is less likely to be economically useful and more likely to be a echandee vision.

How does India continue its development and yet thwart the territorial aims of these countries?

But let me repeat once again. You cannot fight a war without making the other person feel pain. if the Chinese want to land grab in India they have to be punished by taking out their oil ships at sea and sinking Chinese imports and exports. No point blaming lack of vision of leaders if we cannot think of fighting a hot escalated no holds barred war. Are we talking about a Hindu rate of escalation of a war with an overlay of Ahimsa?

As regards Pakistan we will have to try and split that nation by existing forces and plans. that means they may nuke us. How extraordinarily stupid to say that we do not want to think of nukes because the Chinese won't use them. We are talking of a two front war. Pakistan is in it too. Pakistan may use nukes on us. Are we then going to say "Sorry. We never thought of that?"

Talk is cheap. Restricted talk when we are blind to what can happen is cheaper still. Worse is to blame others for being blind when we don't want to face reality. I think we Indians want to do things on the cheap. But it will cost us in the long term No?
Last edited by shiv on 29 Jun 2010 07:52, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby sawant » 29 Jun 2010 07:34

I don't really see why the Maoists and Kashmir insurgency will be used by India to plan a war. At least as far as Maoists are concerned, it's really ours to lose. Why can we not clean up somethin that's completely within our borders, no one will buy that argument if we use it against China... it's more a case of us keeping the doors open and letting the wolves in, we have to win it, the way we did in Punjab... Same for Kashmir... the Sopore etc incidents are typical to enthuse hardliners and try to revive anti-India feeling bcoz militancy is on the wane. Honestly, if GOI gets its act together, we can manage all these insurgencies and prevent others....

Now for the flashpoint scenario... but what happens after His Holiness the Dalai Lama.... does China accept the Karmapa or will it try to sabotage that by putting up one itself... and will Tibetans accept that ...

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby DavidD » 29 Jun 2010 07:37

nukavarapu:

Although I generally agree with your conclusions, some of your assumptions, especially your first point, are false on many levels.

1) You're overestimating the power of the firewalls. I once read a western story about how none of the college students this reporter interviewed in Beijing even knows about the Tiananmen Square incident. That's a complete pile of bull. I have many family and relatives in China and particularly in Beijing, you'd be hard pressed to find even a girl who doesn't know of the incident and its real background(i.e. not the official CCP story). No, the information isn't online, but people talk about it freely on the streets, in restaurants, and in their homes. If it is such a non-story now, the Chinese Premiere Wen Jiabao would not have written a page long editorial on Hu Yaobang(the death of whom precipitated the incident) just earlier this year. In contrast to your analysis of what the CCP did to prevent the next TAM Square, they actually SLOWED down the rate of liberalization as they purged the most liberal members at the time, including Zhao Ziyang. What really helped them wasn't their policies, but the fall of the USSR and the ensuing turmoils and the re-establishment of a pseudo-democracy in Russia.
The people saw that a mad dash to democracy isn't the panacea for all their problems(like corruption and widening rich-poor gap).

2) Wide gaps between the rich and poor is a symptom of a rapidly industrializing and developing society, not an power play by the CCP. Is there not a gigantic wealth gap in India too? Is it because the GOI is trying to keep the poor people down? Also, while China's peasants have not advanced at the rapid rate that Chinese urbanites have, they have indeed come a long way since then. I know. My father was a peasant, my grandfather was a peasant, and many of their relatives and friends are still peasants. That's not even mentioning my more distant relatives.

You have to keep in mind that when they were young, people around them starved to death, died of simple sicknesses because they couldn't afford/find simple medicines, died in wars and social turmoils and had no future to look forward to except generation after generation of working in the fields. For example, all of my maternal grandfather's siblings died in WWII, my paternal grandfather's father and siblings all died when he was a teenager due to simple diseases, one of my aunts died of a mouth canker sore, another one was given away because they couldn't afford to feed her. My father couldn't go to college because universities were essentially abolished during the Cultural Revolution, and he labored in the rice fields in despair wondering if all his intellectual talents were going to waste.

Things are different now, nobody is under threat of starvation anymore, everybody could get healthcare for the simpler diseases, and just about all families can afford an education for their children, providing them with a way out. China's literacy rate is at above 90%, far higher than India's, so I don't know where you get the uneducated masses thing from. This all changed in the last 30 years, and the pace of change has shown no signs of slowing down. That's why if you look at the latest Pew surveys, you'll find that ~90% of the Chinese people are happy with the direction of the country, far above any other country surveyed.

http://pewglobal.org/2010/06/17/obama-m ... at-home/4/
Image

China isn't without its problems, but you're exaggerating it by a wide margin.

3) Your analysis, thus, of China's economy is also flawed. Global trading decreased significantly during the recent recession, and many pundits predicted that China's "export-driven" economy would be slammed the worst. But hey, what do you know, China's growth rate hummed along at a scorching ~10% yet again. So how do you explain this dichotomy? How can exports drop so much but this "export-driven" economy remain just fine? A closer analysis would indicate that China's economy is not nearly as export-driven as many had simply assumed. Chinese leaders have taken note nonetheless, and if you're keeping up with the latest news from China, including the tacit approval by the CCP over labor protests, you'll see that China is actively making the nation more consumer-driven. Due to the political stability the CCP enjoys in contrast with democratic nations, long-term vision is one of its most potent assets, and it has been put to good use.

4) In the end, I still largely agree with your conclusion, because I believe that resources will eventually be key. As fossil fuel around the world dwindles, there will be a mad dash to secure the last bits of it. However, do take note that China is not satisfied with simply securing more resources, it is taking an active approach to become energy independent. Currently, China is investing more money than any other country, the U.S. included, in renewable(if not environmentally-friendly) energy. Still, if there is a conflict, it will much more likely be one over energy rather than over markets.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 29 Jun 2010 08:14

If we have a two front war how can we get away with it cheaply?

Let me talk about that.

The cheapest method of having a two front war is not to prepare at all.

Slightly more costly is to fight a war and constantly keep our worries and anxieties at the back of our minds. Let me say how this can be done:
Shiva Shivaa!! I am facing a two front war. China and Pakistan both attacking! What to do?? Allah. Christ. Shiva anyone please give me gyan.

I have sent my forces to face the Chinese in Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. But we are losing territory. The Air Force Chief says - without attacking the supply lines deep inside Tibet we cannot win. But the Chinese may attack deep inside India. Imagine Guwahati, Agartala, Kolkata and even Delhi being hit. Shiva shiva. Please let me not have this. No No escalation. I will send more men. The navy chief says that if we start sinking Chinese ships at the straits of Malacca and Indian ocean we can start making the war costly for them. But if we make the war costly for them it will be more costly for us also no? Imagine Vishakpatnam being attacked? No No. I don't want it to be so costly. We are a poor country Leave the Chinese shipping alone. What? Two Indian ships sunk? No. Don't retaliate. we will just observe the situation. Maybe they will stop. They just want to send a signal

What? Army chief says territorial loss cannot be avoided and that the only possibility will be to use a nuclear weapon? Chee. Tell that man to go wash his mouth. Shiva shiva. What kind of uncultured people we have. Do they think it is easy to fight a war?

Shut up Nagraj. Why you are disturbing me? Whatwhat? Pakistan front? They are gaining territory in Kashmir? Army chief says we should start an offensive to split Pakistan in two and take pressure off? Thoo. That same man again. Shiva Shiva. If we split Pakistan they will nuke us. They have already issued a statement to that effect. Does he want to start nuclear war? Is this a game or war?

No! Send more troops? What? We don't have enough men? Shiva Shivaaa, What to do. Let us retreat and ask UN to get our land back.


More seriously. War is costly business.

If someone starts a war he will IMPOSE COST ON US. If we are unwilling to similarly impose cost on him we have already lost the war. Why blame the politicians if we ourselves are afraid to talk about imposing cost on the other guy where it hurts him? Even in a cooked up gaming scenario like this thread? Pah!

Added later:

Imposing cost on an adversary can only be done where you hold the upper hand. If Pakistan is strong in Kashmir - we must attack them further south. If China is strong at the borders where do we hit them? We have to hit them where it hurts, and where we have the capability. Not realising that and not planning for that is like planning to lose a war.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Samay » 29 Jun 2010 14:09

^^ There were similar type of people ruling India who would have said and done such things because of their dhimmitude ,when we lost huge areas to china and pakistan ,ie. JLN and his communist team members
still many facets lie hidden from public
Our actual preparations for a 2 front war started after 1965 when losing further territories was not an option and a two front attack was imminent when and how it happened..
Good that pakistan was split ,but the task of taking care of this pakistan problem in SA is still incomplete .. for a greater good of all it must be done asap

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 29 Jun 2010 16:45

Samay wrote:^^ There were similar type of people ruling India who would have said and done such things because of their dhimmitude ,when we lost huge areas to china and pakistan ,ie. JLN and his communist team members
still many facets lie hidden from public
Our actual preparations for a 2 front war started after 1965 when losing further territories was not an option and a two front attack was imminent when and how it happened..
Good that pakistan was split ,but the task of taking care of this pakistan problem in SA is still incomplete .. for a greater good of all it must be done asap



Samay, my persnal view is that for a thread like this,on an internet forum. people must put themselves in the position of a leader and state how they would conduct such a war rather than saying "This will happen - and the leader will cop out. Then China will do that and our leader will crap in his dhoti. Then Pakistan will do xyz and the leader will want to be pseudosecular"

This kind of talk is an indirect way of expressing fears. it does not say what should be done. A forum such as this should be able to prod people into coming up with pro active ideas based on some knowledge rather than reactive rants about leadership failures and what scares them as a result. But being realistic about the opponents' and Indian strengths helps maintain a degree of realism.

Or else we can sum up this whole thread in 3 lines

Pakistan and China attack
India leadership bad/sad/weak
India loses


After that we can onlee proceed to discuss leadership - like the proverbial story of the man who know about the cow but was asked to write about a coconut tree. He said that "The cow is tied to the coconut tree.."and proceeded to write about the cow.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Samay » 29 Jun 2010 17:15

But being realistic about the opponents' and Indian strengths helps maintain a degree of realism.

Sir, I accept that first few lines of my post show some kind of fear,but that was about what had already happened ..
in the last line I have mentioned that to win a 2 front war ,we need to weaken one of the fronts .. we have an unfinished business with the western enemy and it needs to be dismantled asap..

Anyone who fears too much losing votebank/commercial interests,like pseudo-secular dhimmis ,
will say that a stable pakistan is in India's interest !!
I have not said that ..

BTW what is the probability that an attack on India will only be from 2 fronts?
it seems likely ,but likelihood is again a human perception ,isnt it?
The enemy we are talking about (chn)is very good at creating false perceptions ,we have seen it earlier ..

How do we define what a front is?
if it is an axis/joint effort, then china and pak are a single front (to be considered at least) and if they are considered separate fronts on the basis they being different entities,then IMHO there are more fronts waiting to be activated
The question I would ask is that are we ready for surprises ??

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Samay » 29 Jun 2010 17:40

After that we can onlee proceed to discuss leadership - like the proverbial story of the man who know about the cow but was asked to write about a coconut tree. He said that "The cow is tied to the coconut tree.."and proceeded to write about the cow.

Are you saying that the war outcomes do not depent upon leader's quality ,then what abt 1962 and 1971 ?
leadership and strength work parallel to each other ,
I remember a story when our airforce had strength to stop the chinese incursions much earlier if our leadership have permitted , I remember a story that if our leadership had allowed to counter attack after kargil,we would have taught pakis a never to forget lesson abt India and kashmir, and I also remember a story when Hannibal was defeated from his winning position only because carthagian leadership were kind of dhimmis we see today .
Leadership determines about how we prepare against the seen-unseen odds , our way of progress ,
not something to be discussed at last,but something to be discussed before everything starts .

Are we ready for a two or more front war- is our leadership ready to take responsibility?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby RamaY » 29 Jun 2010 19:02

dingyibvs,

The statistics you presented tell the story of China. Everything (good/bad) is highly polarized. Perhaps we should add a nice % (20-30% IMO) to any/every China data point to get the true picture. In modeling we call this "calibration".

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 29 Jun 2010 19:12

Samay wrote:Are you saying that the war outcomes do not depent upon leader's quality ,then what abt 1962 and 1971 ?



Good God no!!!! You have not understood what I am trying to say. :shock: :x

Put YOURSELF in the place of the leader. Make yourself a top decision maker in India and then say how YOU will fight this 2 front war!! Say how you will prepare for it and then fight it if you like.

Otherwise you have one more excuse to make things up and say - we can do this but our leaders won't do it.

Remember that I have already stated that a 2 front war can be ended very easily by nuking them both. If I was leader I would do just that. make it go nuclear soon. iI have stated several times what I would do.

What would YOU do?

Only on a net forum can we do this. Everyone on earth has a whine about our leaders. Why don't YOU try t be leaders on this thread? You show your quality rather that moan about our leaders quality which is what we do all the time.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby RamaY » 29 Jun 2010 19:43

shiv wrote:What would YOU do?


That is a good question. Blaming leaders is easy, LEADING is very difficult. What would I do if I am PM of India between 2010-15?

Assumption: Scope of this post is limited to Internal Security, External Affairs, Trade, and Defense fields.

5 year plan by area:

Internal Security - Budget $10B Non-Perishable
- Setup a nation-wide database of anti-national elements
- Implement National Id program
- Develop 30-50,000 Rapid Action Force with complete logistics (Communication, air-borne Logistics, Training, Law/Policy similar to AFSPA/POTA, and so on)
- Address and solve Naxal Problem
- Absorb willing Naxal forces into CRPF type organization and send them to JK
- Develop a Forest Reserve Force from Tribal Regions
- Develop comprehensive civic infra for all tribal villages
- Crush Anti-national Maoist forces

External Affairs - Budget $10B Perishable
- Identify partner-nationss in ASEAN, SAARC, ME regions
- Donate Akash, Pinaka, Arjun, and LCA regiments as needed
- Appraise International powers/players accordingly (deception is the game here)

Trade - $30B Non-Perishable
- Identify necessary war logistics
- Develop strategic reserves (energy, minerals, etc.,)
- Identify possible trade partners
- Develop hedging strategies

Defense - $45B Non-Perishable
- Navy - $10B (10 new boats, 2 AC fully equipped) - In addition to what is already approved and budgeted for
- Army - $15B (explained in my posts earlier)
- IAF - $10B (LCAI/LCAII production line with 100+ units per year) - In addition to Su-30MKI deals, MMRCA deal, approved deals
- BMD - $5B
- Army Sattillite constellation - $5B

Total = $95B over 5 years = $17B per year. Easily doable. The non-perishable items will stay for at least 15-20 years bringing down the overall cost to $5-6B a year .

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Kanson » 29 Jun 2010 21:54

shiv wrote:
Samay wrote:Are you saying that the war outcomes do not depent upon leader's quality ,then what abt 1962 and 1971 ?



Good God no!!!! You have not understood what I am trying to say. :shock: :x

Put YOURSELF in the place of the leader. Make yourself a top decision maker in India and then say how YOU will fight this 2 front war!! Say how you will prepare for it and then fight it if you like.

......

Remember that I have already stated that a 2 front war can be ended very easily by nuking them both. If I was leader I would do just that. make it go nuclear soon. iI have stated several times what I would do.

What would YOU do?


Seriously, if i'm in that position, i will appoint a CDS and make him as Def. Minister and let him run the show. Rest everything will fall in place.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Vivek K » 29 Jun 2010 22:15

Shiv is right. Change the tear jerker doctrin and remove NFU policy. State clearly what Shiv has posted as such in it.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ShauryaT » 29 Jun 2010 23:51

shiv wrote:Remember that I have already stated that a 2 front war can be ended very easily by nuking them both. If I was leader I would do just that. make it go nuclear soon. iI have stated several times what I would do.
Unrelated to your response to Samay.

The idea to go nuclear on a two front war is not without its counter arguments, as now you are facing the combined arsenal of PRC and TSP, both. Especially against PRC a first strike option would not dent their counter strike options. Your assumption is that if India, chooses to go nuclear, it will stop such a misadventure in the first place. The counter argument would be MCD/NFU is quite unambiguous. The argument you have presented is NFU has qualifiers, unknown attached. Even if true, and if India does go nuclear first, PRC would have counter strike capabilities. So, why will India actually choose the nuclear option in the first place. So, the assumption is PRC would not want to suffer losses of a nuclear scale, true, but can they gamble that India would not escalate this to a nuclear war if certain other aspects are true.

- The battle is restricted to within 100 miles of the border and away from Indian heartland.
- No major attacks on Indian cities or on civilians
- The battle is only within territory widely recognized as "disputed" by the internationally community

The biggest looser will be TSP and that remains true for conventional and non conventional in the two pronged attack scenarios. Without TSP, PRC's gains would be moot. The best argument so far for against a two pronged attack is there is little for PRC to gain and more for TSP to loose, nuclear or not. What is inescapable, is that India HAS to maintain an offensive posture against TSP and aggressive defense postures against PRC "at a minimum", conventionally and nuclear.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Prem Kumar » 30 Jun 2010 01:02

Here is a thought: lets say there is a 2 front war & things are not going too well for India. We have an option between nuclear and conventional. Conduct a Megaton atmospheric nuclear test over say the Arabian sea. An airburst is an easier option than Pokhran because not much prep is required.

The message being "back-off or else".

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Manish_Sharma » 30 Jun 2010 02:02

Nice article by BC in TOI today:

http://chellaney.spaces.live.com/

China's Murky Hydropolitics

Ties and Troubled Waters



China's hydro-engineering projects in Tibet indicate it is fashioning water as a card against India



Brahma Chellaney

The Times of India, June 29, 2010



New evidence from China indicates that, as part of its planned diversion of the waters of the Brahmaputra, preparations are afoot to start work on the world’s biggest dam at the river’s so-called Great Bend, located at Tibet’s corner with northeastern India. The dam, by impounding water on a gargantuan scale, will generate, according to a latest map of planned dams put up on its Web site by the state-run Hydro China, 38,000 megawatts of power, or more than twice the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam. Such is its scale that this new dam will by itself produce the equivalent of 25 percent of India’s current electricity generation from all sources.


Water is becoming a key security issue in Sino-Indian relations and a potential source of enduring discord. China and India already are water-stressed economies. The spread of irrigated farming and water-intensive industries, together with the demands of a rising middle class, have led to a severe struggle for more water. Indeed, both countries have entered an era of perennial water scarcity, which before long is likely to equal, in terms of per capita availability, the water shortages found in the Middle East. :eek:



Rapid economic growth could slow in the face of acute scarcity if demand for water continues to grow at its current frantic pace, turning China and India — both food-sufficient countries by and large — into major importers, a development that would accentuate the global food crisis. Even though India has more arable land than China — 160.5 million hectares compared to 137.1 million hectares — the source of most major Indian rivers is Chinese-controlled Tibet. The Tibetan plateau’s vast glaciers, huge underground springs and high altitude make Tibet the world’s largest freshwater repository. Indeed, all of Asia’s major rivers, except the Ganges, originate in the Chinese-held Tibetan plateau. Even the Ganges’ main tributaries flow in from Tibet.



But China is now pursuing major inter-basin and inter-river water transfer projects on the Tibetan plateau, which threaten to diminish international-river flows into India and other co-riparian states. China’s opaquely pursued hydro-engineering projects in Tibet threaten the interests of India more than those of any other country. The greatest impact of the diversion of the Brahmaputra waters, however, would probably be borne by Bangladesh. The Brahmaputra is Bangladesh’s most-important river, and the Chinese diversion would mean environmental devastation of large parts of Bangladesh. In fact, China is presently pursuing a separate cascade of major dams on the Mekong, the Salween, the Brahmaputra and the Irtysh-Illy, pitting it in water disputes with most of its riparian neighbours — from Kazakhstan and Russia to India and the countries of Indochina Peninsula.



In March 2009, the chairman of the Tibetan regional government unveiled plans for major new dams on the Brahmaputra. A series of six big dams will come up in the upper-middle reaches of the Brahmaputra, to the southeast of Lhasa, with construction of the first — Zangmu — beginning in 2009 itself. As part of this cascade, four other new dams will come up downstream from Zangmu at Jiacha, Lengda, Zhongda and Langzhen. The sixth, at Jiexu, is upstream to Zangmu. This cascade is in addition to the more than a dozen smaller dams China already has built on the Brahmaputra and its tributaries, including at Yamdrok Tso, Pangduo, Nyingtri-Payi and Drikong.



The most ominous plan China is pursuing is the one to reroute a sizable chunk of the Brahmaputra waters northwards at the Great Bend, the point where the river makes a sharp turn to enter India, creating in the process a canyon larger and deeper than the Grand Canyon in the US. The rapid infrastructure work in this area is clearly geared at such water diversion and hydropower generation. In fact, a new Chinese State Grid map showing that the Great Bend area will soon be connected to the rest of China’s power supply is a pointer to the impending launch of work on the mammoth dam there — a scheme recently supported by leaders of China’s state-run hydropower industry, including Zhang Boting, the deputy general secretary of the Chinese Society for Hydropower Engineering.



Through its giant projects in Tibet, China is actually set to acquire the capability to fashion water as a political weapon against India. Such a weapon can be put to overt use in war or employed subtly in peacetime so that the level of cross-border water flows becomes a function of political concession.



With China determined to exploit its riparian dominance, New Delhi’s self-injurious acceptance of Tibet as part of China is becoming more apparent. Just as India has retreated to an increasingly defensive position territorially, with the spotlight on China’s Tibet-linked claim to Arunachal Pradesh than on Tibet’s status itself, New Delhi’s policy straitjacket precludes an Indian diplomatic campaign against Beijing’s dam-building projects. Accepting Tibet and the developments there as China’s “internal” affairs has proven a huge misstep that will continue to exact increasing costs. A bold, forward-looking leadership, though, can rectify any past mistake before it becomes too late.



The writer is professor, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi.


Downside is that they can takeaway our much needed water, but during the war it will present as a juicy target. For such a highly important place where they'll be producing equivalent to 25% of India's electricity....

Though what I found more worrisome in the article was:
Indeed, both countries have entered an era of perennial water scarcity, which before long is likely to equal, in terms of per capita availability, the water shortages found in the Middle East.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby aditya.agd » 30 Jun 2010 02:10

Even if we are faced with 2 front war, our strategy should be to destroy the entire military capability of Pakistan and also work to liberate Tibet from chinese occupation. India should keep ready more than 100 Nukes of varying sizes to be used against pakistan. If need be we should attack Pakistan first with Nukes. They should be mounted and kept ready. Initial blitzkrieg should be of more than 1000 ballistic missiles against Pakistan, against all military and civilian targets. Pakistan must be made free of Punjabi feudalism by destroying the army and their administrative setup. We can even ask the Baluchis, Sindh and other tribes to merge together and form a separate state altogether.

In the case of China we need to completely destroy their military infrastructure in Tibet. We can work with Tibetan Guerillas and local Tibetan population to start guerilla warfare to weaken the enemy combat lines. Light Howitzers and Indian Airforce to completely neutralize the border posts of China. We should use more than 1000 ballistic missiles and brahmos to destroy the targets.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ShauryaT » 30 Jun 2010 02:10

Prem Kumar wrote:Here is a thought: lets say there is a 2 front war & things are not going too well for India. We have an option between nuclear and conventional. Conduct a Megaton atmospheric nuclear test over say the Arabian sea. An airburst is an easier option than Pokhran because not much prep is required.

The message being "back-off or else".
You seriously do not want to start the MT debate here :lol: Are you saying in the middle of a war, we should do a test, to indicate our intentions! If I am the leader of this campaign from PRC, what stops me from doing a massive first strike as you just gave me the perfect excuse? The guess is a joint first strike can result in up to 60% of India's nuclear assets destroyed. The remaining 40% does squat to threaten PRC, especially with the tonnage we carry, our delivery options and the distance to valuable targets. In this scenario, again, dump the balance 40% on TSP.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Prem » 30 Jun 2010 02:13

Indian defence forces have always trained for 1 1.2 war so there is no srprise here if Poakie and chinese act together. Hold China while creaming the Poakis have always been the policy. The nightmere scenario will be if PRC froces actually lands in Lahore but that will then start World War 3 and Poakies are not that worth for PRC. Poakie loose again.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ShauryaT » 30 Jun 2010 02:24

aditya.agd wrote:Even if we are faced with 2 front war, our strategy should be to destroy the entire military capability of Pakistan and also work to liberate Tibet from chinese occupation.
Jingoes will agree, but the GoI does not.


India should keep ready more than 100 Nukes of varying sizes to be used against pakistan. If need be we should attack Pakistan first with Nukes. They should be mounted and kept ready. Initial blitzkrieg should be of more than 1000 ballistic missiles against Pakistan, against all military and civilian targets.
100, 1000, 100000000000000, Let us get the number right, to understand, what you are saying. Also, see if you can educate yourself on India's postures and its likely arsenal and delivery vehicles.

Pakistan must be made free of Punjabi feudalism by destroying the army and their administrative setup. We can even ask the Baluchis, Sindh and other tribes to merge together and form a separate state altogether.
Fat chance that will do any good for India. BIG assumption that they will support India and then another BIG assumption that the state is viable, without the resources of the Punjab. also, how do you accomplish this.....can we do away with wishes on this thread :mrgreen:

[qoute]In the case of China we need to completely destroy their military infrastructure in Tibet. We can work with Tibetan Guerillas and local Tibetan population to start guerilla warfare to weaken the enemy combat lines. Light Howitzers and Indian Airforce to completely neutralize the border posts of China. We should use more than 1000 ballistic missiles and brahmos to destroy the targets.[/quote]More of the same again. Please do the math, on what is the "minimum" level of force needed to even start thinking of trying to accomplish such a venture.

I will give you a person's name, who is passionate about this and actually knows a few things on the matter. He is our ultimate version of a Jingo out there. It is the author of the article posted above. Get his works and see what he has to say on the matter.

Folks please can we have posters here, who can post with SOME basic knowledge, of capabilities, terrain, doctrine, goals, risks, etc.

Sorry, but it is somewhat irritating, maybe i need to be more patient.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby ramana » 30 Jun 2010 02:39

If we really have two front external war count on an internal one to a half war from the million mutinies.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Manish_Sharma » 30 Jun 2010 03:11

Putting myself in the shoes/chair of Indian PM.

1st day meeting with Army/Air/Naval Chiefs I ask them these questions:

1.) How many oil/merchant chinese ships are there in sea from Arab to singopore/malaca straits etc.? If its not on your tips then please pick up this blue phone and get the figures in next 20 mins., in case you don't have figures then start working on it 'cause 1 month from now I may call you up and ask you the same question again anytime.

2.) How much time you need to launch all the nukes we have if I give the order now?

3.) How much ammo/weapons/fuel we have to fight with 100% of our capacity for how many days?

4.) How secure are the missile launch sites of the country?

Next 1-2 years will be spent to stock up Brahmos/Nirbhays/Shauryas as much as possible, also the basic artillery ammo etc.

When such a scenario starts, say within first 5-6 hours Navy will be ordered to take out all the Chinese merchant/oil ships. All the chinese ports in neighbouring countries will be bombed/missiled.

If the war continues for more than 36hours on both the fronts, then I do two things simultaneously: one order 98% of the nukes to be used up against Porkis/BD and all arab oil wells + Air bases. And while Arihant is launching against oil wells etc. and land missile bases are pounding porkis to obliteration I'll tell the chinese PM "look we are still not launching against you so don't force our hand, even if we lose all metropolitins + few more cities to porki bums we won't launch against you, but if you launch then we'll retaliate with everything we got". This will be a big gamble, but if chinese back down on this fine, if they don't then we launch against their 10 refineries + 3 gorges dam and ports.

The reason to nuke arabs is that first they may provide their A/cs for porki help, they maybe hiding some nukes for porkis, and most importantly in postwar scenario they may help porki/bd to stand back against nuked/wounded India.

Now the western europe/US will be pissed with India for next 100 years, but they won't attack or attack just to stop anymore launches. There is not much punishment they can give. I as a leader will allow Arundhatis/Bidwais to protest against govt. then taking full responsibility turn myself over to UN/Hague whatever it is. While India/world will be rid of these vermin of the earth.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Prem » 30 Jun 2010 03:24

Manish why wait for war to vapourize the vermins next door. Long time ago i asked the very same question. Out politians are spent force, old enough to totter on the edge of final departure from Bhuloka. Just Nuke the Pukes and take the blame ,resign and go for penance . But are the willing to make such sacrifices while serving all sunderies except Indian people. Now think of this energy independence in ~15-20~ years open up big canvas to paint a fress new picture of Peaceful SouthAsia . Arabs have already understood this, China will in next few years. Where will Poakie go ?

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Manish_Sharma » 30 Jun 2010 03:35

Prem wrote:Manish why wait for war to vapourize the vermins next door. Long time ago i asked the very same question. Out politians are spent force, old enough to totter on the edge of final departure from Bhuloka. Just Nuke the Pukes and take the blame ,resign and go for penance . But are the willing to make such sacrifices while serving all sunderies except Indian people. Now think of this energy independence in ~15-20~ years open up big canvas to paint a fress new picture of Peaceful SouthAsia . Arabs have already understood this, China will in next few years. Where will Poakie go ?


Actually makes sense Prem! Why wait for the war? Just push the button obliterating porki/bd lands and get on the plane to Hague taking full personal responsiblity.

I accept my basic mistake in the article :oops:

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby munna » 30 Jun 2010 03:42

Manish_Sharma wrote:Actually makes sense Prem! Why wait for the war? Just push the button obliterating porki/bd lands and get on the plane to Hague taking full personal responsiblity.

I accept my basic mistake in the article :oops:


Ahh! So the Indian PM will be hauled to Hague, simply not possible without complete obliteration of Indian forces and that in turn will not take place until we exhaust all the diwali patakhas. And if its the final case then this world will not be a place worth living in any case :wink:

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Prem Kumar » 30 Jun 2010 04:45

ShauryaT wrote:You seriously do not want to start the MT debate here :lol: Are you saying in the middle of a war, we should do a test, to indicate our intentions! If I am the leader of this campaign from PRC, what stops me from doing a massive first strike as you just gave me the perfect excuse? The guess is a joint first strike can result in up to 60% of India's nuclear assets destroyed. The remaining 40% does squat to threaten PRC, especially with the tonnage we carry, our delivery options and the distance to valuable targets. In this scenario, again, dump the balance 40% on TSP.


ShauryaT: its not an outlandish plan but rather a way of escalating without crossing the threshold. Remember that PRC also has self preservation instincts. They wont enter a nuke war unless the benefits far outweigh the costs. Doing a test in the middle of a war going badly (from an Indian POV) will send a signal to de-escalate to both Chinese and the Pakis. This will raise the question in the minds of the leaders of both these countries - "if we push any further, one of us is going to get nuked. Now, which one of us wants to make the next move?"

The purpose of this thought experiment is to explore the grey area between conventional & nuclear - is there a 0.5 between 0 and 1?

I threw in the MT just for fun. Maybe at least then, we will know the answer to the sizzle ya fizzle question :D

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby DavidD » 30 Jun 2010 06:08

nukavarapu wrote:
And I am very sure that they are very well informed. My claim or post was to be sarcastic and not literal.


You were making a point, and you are yet again making the same point that Chinese people are uninformed with regard to that incident. I am rejecting that viewpoint based on contact with actual Chinese people corroborated with outside information. Tell me, how many Chinese people have you asked about the incident?

nukavarapu wrote:
Spare me, I never talked about liberalization, I talked about socio-economic progress and shinning glitters of modernization. A person being liberal is nothing to do with his economic stature. And I agree completely that liberalization would definitely backfire the leadership. Its the charms of modernization that can people amazed in materialistic offerings.


I rejected both definitions of liberalization. The opening up of China was an ongoing process that began in the late '70s, not the late '80s.

nukavarapu wrote:
There is a economic gap in India between the rich and the poor but not the way it is in Chipanda. In india the economic gap is because of the socio-development and infrastructure between urban and rural areas. More to do with government planning and conducive environment. There is no deliberate motive of GOI to keep the poor poor and create a class. In fact the GOI is taking every step possible to bridge the gap. The gap has been gigantic is because of the lack of infrastructure in rural areas and lack of basic amenities like primary/secondary education. In India, though we have a rather socialistic labor laws, but the labor class decides, then they work, for how much they work and when they won't work. A person can stay a laborer if he decides to be a laborer all his life or else he can very well chose a different destiny. That is the root of Indian socialism. The only things that stop him is the absence of education or opportunities. If we had the kind of infrastructure that you chipanda has put in, I am more than 100% sure, the gap will never be that gigantic. Even with such poor infrastructure and all the possible lack of opportunities, our rural class is actually doing very well. During the recession this class was the one which drove the economy and not the urban class.


This makes no sense. If the GOI is doing all they can to bridge that gap, then why are rural areas' soco-development and infrastructure so far behind? Not all areas develop at the same rate in developing nations, that's the truth. What evidence do you have that Chinese rural areas' infrastructure is much better than Indian ones vis-a-vis Chinese and Indian urban areas respectively? You are trying to force this argument, I hope you can keep an open mind in this discussion. You obviously have a perception of China, but try not to force everything you may or may not know into that perception.

nukavarapu wrote:
I agree to you whole heartedly and that is what is the main pinch in the entire 21st century picture of China. A country with higher GDP than India, lesser population than India, better infrastructure than India, is still very poor compared to India in terms of healthcare. In india no matter what kind of Revolution we have, nobody can stop us from going to college or create our own future. Its been like that and it will be like that as long as Indian society and our way of life exists.


The same goes for China, which is why the Chinese people love the direction of the country. I'll agree with you on the healthcare issue tho, I've heard some disgusting stories over the years. I don't think healthcare will ever be as good as India's though, it's partly a cultural issue. Based on what I've heard, doctors in India have very high pay and status, that's simply never been the case in China. Heck, I'm going into medicine myself and all my Chinese relatives tried to persuade me to do engineering instead! (based on what my Indian friends tell me, that should sound pretty ridiculous to an Indian)

nukavarapu wrote:
I will take your claim with a pinch of salt about 90% literacy. There is no UN report to claim that unless if you can provide. When it comes to chipanda, I will believe only reports from UN because they only compile a report if they are allowed to do their work freely without any restrictions. But I do agree that the literacy rate has improved. One question, if the so called literacy rate is 90% and chipanda is doing so good in improving the socio-economic status, how come they are having such a huge no. of cheap laborers? You mean to say people attending colleges and doing graduation still end up as laborers? Is just having a basic literacy to write/read letters and count numbers guarantee a better career? Is it the lack of opportunities? How can that be with the kind of GDP growth and industrial revolution going on?


So now you're picking and choosing which statistic to believe? It's very rare to meet an illiterate younger person in China, most of the illiterate people are pretty old. It's obvious that you have little real knowledge of China, go walk around in the country, see if you can find many illiterate people. How come they have such a huge no. of cheap laborers? Competition. In case you forgot, there are 1.3 billion people in China. Divide China's GDP by 1.3 billion, what do you have? You have what the west would consider a poor man. Is there a lack of opportunities? Of course there is. China wouldn't be a developing country if there wasn't. In order for the average Chinese person to make as much as an average American, China's GDP needs to quadruple America's. China is still many decades away from having as many opportunities per capita as the U.S.

nukavarapu wrote:
Thats the biggest joke I heard all day. It seems you have no idea about the 10% GDP growth during recession. Its an inflation created by rampant investment in Real Estate creating a huge bubble, far bigger than Dubai or Greece. When exports fell, that was how 10% GDP growth achieved. If you wanna better understand what I am saying, you should hang out in the China Economy thread. Or economy gurus like RamaY explain to you. You have no idea how big risk this bubble carries.

China has a very long way to go to become a consumer driven economy. You can counter my claims by saying the Car sales etc. We also have records which prove that the record cars sails may be false. If even they are true, a self-sustaining economy based on domestic consumption cannot be declared in 1 - 2 years. It needs to have a consistent record of atleast 10 years, where domestic consumption played for more than 50% of GDP and atleast more than 60% in the actual GDP growth. BTW domestic consumption during recession to boost GDP Growth numbers cannot be called as a true domestic consumption.

I seriously hope that this bubble does not burst the way it looks right now. Keeping geo-politics and national pride aside, it might bring a very tough time to the people of Chipanda. Well, being your neighbors we won't be left unscathed by this bubble.


How incredibly ironic! While making fun of my post, you made THE gigantic joke. I mean, come on! A bubble real estate economy is the cause of a TEN PERCENT increase in GDP? Are you serious? Do you realize how much 10% of China's GDP is? That's, nominally, 400 BILLION dollars! In one year! Do you really think that inflated real estate in a handful Chinese cities can result in that much GDP growth? One of the worst real estate bubble cities, Beijing, happens to be where many of my relatives live, so I know what the prices there are like. Yes, it's sky high, but it's been that way, space is precious in eastern China. But I was in the states when the American bubble economy was booming. My landlord sold my apartment for $100,000 about 10 years back. It was resold 5 years later at $350,000. Now THAT's a bubble economy. How much did America's GDP grow during that period? Anywhere even near 10% a year? Nope.

Please you, or RamaY, explain to me how that happens!

I agree that domestic consumption doesn't happen in a year. In fact I stated that it is a part of CCP's long term vision. However, increased domestic consumption has been an ongoing process in China. When I left China ~15 year ago, owning a car was unthinkable. My parents would've had to save up for 10 years while spending $0(obviously unrealistic) to buy one. When I went back last summer, I had no trouble getting around in any city, because we could always find a relative or a friend who has a car and has time to help us out. I don't know if the numbers are fudged, but car ownership in China is exploding and that's a fact. Now, with that said, I agree that China has a LONG way to go to become a consumer-driven economy, but you are seriously underestimating the rapid changes China has undergone.

As for the bubble economy, it won't have a dramatic burst like the U.S. one. Chinese legislators are much more proactive than their American counterparts. Just a few years ago, I could've gotten a loan to buy a house in the U.S. without any money nor even a job. In China, a recent law prohibits a person from buying more than 1 residence and the housing loans are much more difficult to obtain.

My friend, you really need to open your mind. I know you already have a pretty deeply ingrained notion of how China is and what it is about, but things change quickly and if you filter all new information through your existing web of perception, you'll always skew your views toward your preconceived ones. There is a funny saying among the Chinese nationals in the states, "in China we'd spend all day trashing our government, but in America we spend all day defending it!" That's because China has many problems, problems that Chinese people know all too well, but all these problems are magnified 10x by the western media and Chinese people living in the west have to often go "wait a minute, it's bad, but not THAT bad!"

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby shiv » 30 Jun 2010 06:42

Manish_Sharma wrote:Nice article by BC in TOI today:

http://chellaney.spaces.live.com/


China's hydro-engineering projects in Tibet indicate it is fashioning water as a card against India



Over the months and years I am beginning to have a problem with the way Chellaney states things.

Mind you. I am a nobody and Chellaney is a great thinker and patriot. But yet - his style is IMO counterproductive. He has a whiny style of saying things and that whininess and hand wringing get transferred to readers who admire his foresight.

The Yarlung Tsangpo or "great bend" is situated in Chinese controlled territory - Tibet.

If I were a Chinese planning to build a dam to generate a lot of electricity for China I would not be looking at this gigantic engineering execrcise as a "water card against India". I would be viewing it as my genuine right to use the recources of the land I control. It woudl provide jobs for thousands and power for millions in my country. If any Chinese is told that he is playing a "water card" by building a hydroelectric dam on his territory he will ROTFL and say "Fnck off. I am using my river for my work and development. Nothing to do with you". And you can bet this is exactly how the Chinese will react once they stop denying that the project exists.

Maybe Chellaney does this because he intends it for an Indian audience of babus an dhotis who will not understand that such a dam may set their asses on fire and there will be no water to put out that fire unless they pay attention and watch what China is doing now. But the same moronic babus and dhotis wil believe that "card story" and react to it in that way. And I don't see that as the most constructive way of doing something about it.

How does India react to such a dam? "We are going to destroy the dam" is a nonsensical statement. We are not. And if we destroy such a dam guess who will get flooded?

India that is claimed to be throwing out a million graduates a year does not seem to have one geologist or environmentalist who can figure out the impact of such a dam. Last month when the CET (Common Entrance Test) was being conducted I saw 200,000 kids trying to become software engineers. So we have to depend on Brahm Chellaney who has to be a jack of all trades.

I am reminded of a sick joke. In an old Hindu movie starring Dara Singh a woman gives him a rose and says "Yeh Mohabbat ka phool hai" (This is a flower of love). To which our hero says "Arre yeh to Gulab ka phool hai" ("You're kidding. This flower is a rose") When you call a Chinese dam a card against India the Chinese will say "No way. This is a dam for China". This becomes a battle of semantics and definitions from the start, rather than a discussion of exactly what the implications are and what can be done. Playing with semantics carries problems of its own.

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Re: Are We Ready for a Two-front War ?

Postby Prem Kumar » 30 Jun 2010 06:54

nukavarapu wrote:
Don't you think that escalating the situation to a full blown war is an indicator enough that we are going to exercise the nuclear option? Whats the point in putting up a grand display of testing a nuclear device in middle of a war? It would make more sense to use the nuclear device directly on porkis, will cause them immense damage and act as a deterrent to chipanda.
.


Nukavarapu: A 2 front war does not *have* to go nuclear. That's a fundamental premise in the scenario that I described. If I was the Indian PM, I would at least consider this "testing as a warning" option rather than rush to press the red button. No one wants the blood of millions on their hands.


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