Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2010

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 28 Jul 2010 22:51

My apologies in case this B Raman article was already posted

Soft At The Top

The ISI did have some fears when Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao were Prime Ministers, but because of a succession of soft Prime Ministers we have had, there seems to be no pressure on it


Will the revelations about Pakistan and the ISI in the documents leaked to Wikileaks lead at long last to Pakistan and its ISI being subjected to punitive action? I have serious doubts. After some strong statements, the US will hush up the matter once again and the Govt. of India will avoid pressing the US to act against Pakistan. It is a great national shame.


raj mata's fear of assisination is making this nation weak and coward. BJP is in bigger shambles post ABV. So situation is pretty grim

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby svinayak » 28 Jul 2010 22:53

A_Gupta wrote:Assume for an instant that Stratfor's George Friedman is correct, about this "Since a stable Pakistan is more important to the United States than a victory in Afghanistan - which it wasn't going to get anyway - the United States released pressure and increased aid. If Pakistan collapsed, then India would be the sole regional power, not something the United States wants,' Friedman said."

'Since a stable Pakistan is more important to the United States than a victory in Afghanistan - which it wasn't going to get anyway - the United States released pressure and increased aid. If Pakistan collapsed, then India would be the sole regional power, not something the United States wants,' Friedman said.
Quote:
'Given that the United States is powerful and is Pakistan's only lever against India, the Pakistanis will not make this their public policy, however,' he said.



It follows that Pakistan is unable or unwilling to deliver this delinking. Pakistan has not kept even the L-e-T to a local scope (India, Afghanistan). It might be the usual Paki method of taking a maximalist position, or it might be that Pakistan genuinely has lost control.

It follows that the duplicity is not that Pakistan supports the Taliban. The duplicity, from the P.O.V. of the US, if Friedman is correct, is that Pakistan has not delivered on keeping its terrorist proxies confined to South Asia.

The head of the private global intelligence agency, as Stratfor calls itself, goes to the extent of saying the US itself has created a situation for Pakistan to play the double game 'of overt opposition to the Taliban and covert support for the Taliban' as it does not want to see the emergence of India as the sole regional power if Pakistan collapses.

I dont trust this Stratfor.
It is dragging in India when the focus should be Pakistan. This policy to not allow India to be sole regional power after the 1971 war was created by Kissinger and it has been consistent on this. This has resulted in a war situation and encouraged Pakistan to be belligerent for the last 30 years supported by US.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby svinayak » 28 Jul 2010 22:57

Brad Goodman wrote:Can some one decipher this news

House Overwhelmingly Votes Against Resolution To Remove Troops From Pakistan

on Tuesday, with the Congressmen unswayed by reports suggesting that the U.S. is conducting a secret war in the country.

The House voted 372 to 38 to reject the resolution, which was introduced by Reps. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, and Ron Paul, R-Texas. Thirty-two Democrats and six Republicans voted in favor of the measure, while three Democrats and one Republican voted "present."


This means that US and Pentagon are trying to get inside Pakistna proper and they are going to get into the day to day affair of Pakistan and GOP. This is a sign of collapse of Pakistan and its functional govt what ever is left.

Looks for signs of new people appointed for govt and different civilian and factory positions.
Mushy was able to get some control but after 2008 there has been a break down. Without a IRON FRAME - code word for American advisors - Pakistan cannot be made functional. Anarchy like Afghanistan may be the future of Pakistan.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 28 Jul 2010 23:00

Acharya ji with all due respect this means US troops and this time I am referring to combat troops are performing ops in FATA and KP and this bill will make sure that their boots remain on ground. The question is since when are these troops active and what kind of mission are they working on? How does TSPA support them etc and how come we missed it.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby svinayak » 28 Jul 2010 23:04

Brad Goodman wrote:Acharya ji with all due respect this means US troops and this time I am referring to combat troops are performing ops in FATA and KP and this bill will make sure that their boots remain on ground. The question is since when are these troops active and what kind of mission are they working on? How does TSPA support them etc and how come we missed it.

Do you know that US troops are also govt advisors.
There is a recon team inside Pakistan from 2001 and have been monitoring the jehadi network. Airports and public cities are under watch. The money to run the Pak govt is coming from US govt and budget of various US mil ops. Incoming and outgoing public from airports are screened. Civilian CIA also has troops and it works with civilian office adn administration.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Muppalla » 28 Jul 2010 23:10

A_Gupta wrote:Assume for an instant that Stratfor's George Friedman is correct, about this "Since a stable Pakistan is more important to the United States than a victory in Afghanistan - which it wasn't going to get anyway - the United States released pressure and increased aid. If Pakistan collapsed, then India would be the sole regional power, not something the United States wants,' Friedman said."

To me, the logical implication is that if Pakistan could break the al-Qaeda/other international terrorist groups' link with the Taliban; i.e., if the Pakistani Army could convince/force its clients in Afghanistan and Pakistan not to threaten the US or NATO countries, the the US would be happy to give Pakistan free rein in Afghanistan. After all, that meets all US objectives.

It follows that Pakistan is unable or unwilling to deliver this delinking. Pakistan has not kept even the L-e-T to a local scope (India, Afghanistan). It might be the usual Paki method of taking a maximalist position, or it might be that Pakistan genuinely has lost control.

It follows that the duplicity is not that Pakistan supports the Taliban. The duplicity, from the P.O.V. of the US, if Friedman is correct, is that Pakistan has not delivered on keeping its terrorist proxies confined to South Asia.


shiv wrote:If what Friedman says is true and we assume that Paki nukes have US PALs - it is likely that the US has made it clear to India that war with Pakistan means that Pakistan will be free to unlock their nukes.

This is contrary to what I have believed and stated so far.I have believed hat the US has cajoled and compelled India into cooperation on the suggestion that moving the nukes would get some of them out of control. But this news could mean that the US will not object if the nukes are moved for mating in a war with India. I am still not sure that this is good for the US in the long term. It is bad for India from any anglle anyway.


These two posts fundamentally are summary of the zillion posts and zillion versions of BR threads regarding this tango between India-TSP-US. In addition to what George Friedman has put so bluntly and honestly, we should add India's closest friend Robert Blackwill's comments recently and also the one that he made immediately after India's parliament attack. He clearly said that " Existance and integerty of pakistan is non-negotiable as it is US national interest. We are not here to fight India's war. "

What US wants is a tap (owned by TSP) when opened the water (Jihadi Terror) should always fall in a designated vessel (was Russia and India and later just India). However, as the tap got wornout, it started leakings. The leaked water started reaching western nations and created a one time flood in the form of 911. US was working to fix the leak for a while and became serious to fix the leak after 911. However, there was never a plan to remove the tap. The tap is required. India is just a catalyst so that the leaks are fixed. Nukes are a hedge so that India and others does not remove the tap forever. Now just add the billions of dollars in aid being delivered etc. to this picture and we get the same story. Fundamentally nothing has really changed geopolitically between US-TSP and India. US's friendship with India is just for pure commercial purposes.

TSP knows this game so well and they were extremely confident that US will never knockout TSP and hence they played the alleged-double game against US. It is neither unexpected nor shocking for US that TSP is actually using the war on terror to help Taliban. They know that Pakistan has to be allowed to do whatever they are doing inorder to get the tap-leaks plugged. The only challenge in the whole game was for TSP in convincing the entire jihadi-machinery that this whole thing is supposed to be meant only-for-India and not a global thing. The entire engagement of US in South Asia is to wait patienty and help/facilitate TSP to plug the tap-leaks. In the persuit, it asked India also to take some hits because it is a necessary step to facilate TSP meet the "challenge".

The wikileaks is a platform to tell the world what US actually wanted and it is like a status report. It is also the way to tell that as soon as we are satisfied that the "water-leak" is taken care off, we will be off Af-Pak. I am sure in the coming days we will also see the strategy that US want to put in place so that TSP could meet the "challenge".

Did US succeed in helping TSP meet the challenge?
(1) Yes - it has put a lot of human and electronic intel in Af-Pak area to know when the attacks are coming to west.
(2) As long as jihadis are busy in attacks in India, Russia etc. it achieved its goal
(3) It may allow some not-so-important western nations (like Spain, Iceland etc.) to take those once in a while attacks. It may feel that it is ok to take once in a while terror attacks on US interest abroad viz. US-Cole etc. Minimal life loss once in a while to jihadis is not that big of a loss and worth the loss in the US-National interest.

Did the US succeed in helping TSP stay on course and intact?
(1) US is working on a plan to see Pasthuns are less angry. TSP may just allow them to do whatever they want in Punjab. TSPA may gift Pastuns to go and rape as many women as they want in Punjab. The rentier state can rent the selected portions of Punjab to Pasthuns to buy peace and put back the machines on course.
(2) Allow Taliban to takeover Afghanistan so that they can lead Afghans and also they have Punjab for flesh. TSPA will make sure the tap water goes to designated vessel.
(3) Drug market eminating from Af-Pak is force multiplier to motivate all the officials from the countires there so that the financial-cuts could make them rich while helping the jihadi finances

US will stay as long as it takes to achieve the above.

What's for India in all this?
It has to wait before thinking doing these big-boy items as it has to take care of those who does not have a flushable lavatory. Until then India has to spin itself for talks-with-anyone, Nuke deals and everything that will get few more dollars. [Note: not meant to take potshots on any BR member. I honestly believe this is the thought process in a substantial section of Indian policy makers.]

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 28 Jul 2010 23:11

Nope all this is news to me. All I knew was there were some advisors and some trainers from massa land but never read that they were this active.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 28 Jul 2010 23:35

Take this for what ever it is worth

Headley's 26/11 revelations 'ticking time bomb' in Pak-US ties

WASHINGTON: David Headley's revelation that LeT planned the Mumbai attacks with possible help from the ISI is a "ticking time bomb" that could wreck the US- Pakistan relationship and take the subcontinent to disaster, a former CIA official has warned.

Bruce Riedel, a former CIA official and now with the prestigious Brookings Institute, said Pakistan should carry out a "thorough house cleaning" of its military after the Pakistani-American LeT operative's revelations that attackers had links to the ISI.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby ramana » 28 Jul 2010 23:38

The empahsis appears to be on LeT. Maybe they are showing up in Afghanistan which is a different than their original mandate?

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby satyam » 28 Jul 2010 23:42

I have a feeling there would be terrorist attacks in India once US lives Af-pak. What can we do ? :(

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby ramana » 28 Jul 2010 23:43

If they leave Af-Pak it will be easy to retaliate with full force on the escalation ladder.

So they wont leave.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby svinayak » 28 Jul 2010 23:43

satyam wrote:I have a feeling there would be terrorist attacks in India once US lives Af-pak. What can we do ? :(


Not only that but leaders and other business will also be the target of terrorists in the next few weeks and mths

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby satyam » 28 Jul 2010 23:45

^^^^

Yes this is exactly my feeling. :( They will try to hurt our economy. But atleast there would be no US aid to them.
Last edited by satyam on 28 Jul 2010 23:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby svinayak » 28 Jul 2010 23:45

Brad Goodman wrote:Nope all this is news to me. All I knew was there were some advisors and some trainers from massa land but never read that they were this active.

Update your self and archives will also help

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby svinayak » 28 Jul 2010 23:46

satyam wrote: But atleast there would be no US aid to them.

We dont know. If they feel that India has a upper hand they will try to help Pak with aid and military

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby satyam » 28 Jul 2010 23:49

^^^^^

Pakistan needs regular annual 7 billion $ to sustain itself. If we start covert operation , they will collapse.

Our gdp will be 1.55 trillion $ next year ( march 2011) and there 180 billion $ with IMF aid and US aid.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 28 Jul 2010 23:53

ramana wrote:The empahsis appears to be on LeT. Maybe they are showing up in Afghanistan which is a different than their original mandate?


All those who think US is OK with India specific terror. I disagree with you guys. One thing that unkil knows and we need to realize is that LeT, Jem, HuJi, Telibunny, Pakiban, AlQ are all one and the same. They might have different management but their foot soldiers freely move across organizations for new set of challenges or share logistics as well as information. So if you remove cancer from one part of body (which was affecting some vital organ like lung or liver) and leave it on say limbs hoping that this will not affect you in future then you are wrong you need to surgically remove it from all parts of body and then undergo a chemotherapy and radiation therapy session for next few months even if you are 200% sure that you have removed all of it.

Unkil knows that intact LeT can train next generation of arabic alphabet soup tanzeem that shows up on horizon. Plus with every successful attack their expertise and skill set goes up now they can use this base knowledge and improvise to go for more spectacular attacks. Also unkil is getting worried about these retired ISI / TSPA jehadis who are feeding the frankenstien. If you disagree with my analysis I can give an example JeM has gone cold on India front and is now active in secterian front and AfPak
Last edited by Brad Goodman on 28 Jul 2010 23:58, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 28 Jul 2010 23:57

satyam wrote:I have a feeling there would be terrorist attacks in India once US lives Af-pak. What can we do ? :(



India gets hit irrespective of whethere unkil stays or leaves. The matter for concern for unkil is how long before these same yahoo's gather the courage to attack west. The stakes have gone higher because west has a huge pool of ROPer jihadis who are willing to pay capitation fees to these tanzeems to learn tricks of trade and then use these newly applied skills in west example Sehzad, arlington VA boys and 7/7 london based pakis

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby shravan » 29 Jul 2010 00:05

Brad Goodman wrote: Also unkil is getting worried about these retired ISI / TSPA jehadis who are feeding the frankenstien.


Unkil was not worried about ISI / TSPA after 9/11 or when they were killing their soldiers. What makes you think they have changed their mind ?

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 29 Jul 2010 00:09

shravan wrote:
Brad Goodman wrote: Also unkil is getting worried about these retired ISI / TSPA jehadis who are feeding the frankenstien.


Unkil was not worried about ISI / TSPA after 9/11 or when they were killing their soldiers. What makes you think they have changed their mind ?


its basically conflict of interest that is messing up unkil's policy. There is one school of thought that wants to shut down this devils embrace which leaked all the documents also the ones who published the new ME map. Then there is old school as well as people who want to use TSPA as a levrage against any startegic shifts in Asia. I think there is a lobby in US that wants to shut down this factory. If you ask me for proof I do not have it with me but surely time will what will happen.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby satyam » 29 Jul 2010 00:10

Do we have ability to conduct terrorist attack in Pak ? Do we have assets in Pak ?

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 29 Jul 2010 00:14

satyam wrote:Do we have ability to conduct terrorist attack in Pak ? Do we have assets in Pak ?


I would like to modify your question. Do we have the WILL to go that route? If yes then everything else can be put in place.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby satyam » 29 Jul 2010 00:16

^^^^
Even after terrorist attack like Mumbai,i think there should be no question of will . I think having covert operation in Pak will make them think thrice before terrorist attack.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 29 Jul 2010 00:21

I agree that would be eye for an eye or pashtowali code. But how many of our public is ready for it? Just look at elections after Mumbai attacks both at national & state level there was absolutely no fall out for Kangress despite Shivraj Patil dress change or Vilasrao's carnage tourism with Ramu or MMS losing sleep or raj mata's maun vrat. So what makes you feel Indian public is ready for such action

Also please read B Raman's article I posted a few moons ago. He says ISI is raising the bar because we have a weak leadership. Indira had karachi on fire for every attack in Punjab but since mandal days we have these bhelpuri governments that are busy horse trading and not have no time for national interest whether it was Gowda Gujral or MMS. ABV was the pick of the lot but his hands were tied too.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby shravan » 29 Jul 2010 00:23

^^ Till now only one Politician has said something similar - "We should talk to the Pakis in the language they understand"

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby satyam » 29 Jul 2010 00:24

Having covert operation are the work of intelligence agency not govt. They require fund and little bit govt support.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 29 Jul 2010 00:29

satyam wrote:^^^

These are the work of intelligence agency not govt. They require fund and little bit govt support.


Intelligence agencies do what Govt orders them to do atleast this is true in India. Ofcourse ISI does what it feels it needs to do. For your wish to come true MMS needs to pick his phone call the NSG meeting invite raa chief and ask him how can we hit pakis where it would hurt them. Then raa cheif lays options and then MMS and company draws the upper and lower bands on what is halal and what is not. Then raa cheif is left to put these ideas into action on ground (that is all the mandate he has nothing more) so when I say WILL what I mean is MMS needs to factor how ISI will react to this new cold start by Raa and is awam ready to pay the price that comes with this stepping on gas (least in short term) he needs to worry which states go for election in that time frame and which allies can ditch him in midstream and what happens if he has to face mid term polls. Plus biggest veto factor is raj mata herself who will go to any lenghts to protect yuvraj from any assasination attempt even if that would mean India suffers.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby satyam » 29 Jul 2010 00:39

So you think assasination attempt is not being made now because India is not retaliating.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 29 Jul 2010 00:40

satyam wrote:So you think assasination attempt is not being made now because India is not retaliating.


Its a game of probablity. Grandmother was taken off because she upped the stakes in Punjab. Daddy did the same in Lanka. Now raj mata thinks yuvi is well off if we just keep changing our cheeks and let TSPA punch it.
Last edited by Brad Goodman on 29 Jul 2010 00:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby shravan » 29 Jul 2010 00:41

Image

Captain of the Airblue flight

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby satyam » 29 Jul 2010 00:43

So these leaders were killed by TSPA . This is rubbish.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby ramana » 29 Jul 2010 00:47

In case of Mrs G it was true. The hands were the bodyguards but the mind was ISI.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 29 Jul 2010 00:48

shravan wrote:Image

Captain of the Airblue flight



How could such bious bilot ever crash a udan khatola. Looks like raa kanspiracy to mee

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 29 Jul 2010 00:50

satyam wrote:So these leaders were killed by TSPA . This is rubbish.


You are mixing issues. GM was ISI. Daddy was LTTE (no evidence of ISI there) but the point was India's WILL to raise the stakes so my point was Raj mata will not allow. If you take few moments to grasp the topic you will not jump the gun.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby archan » 29 Jul 2010 00:50

satyam wrote:^^^^

Yes this is exactly my feeling. :( They will try to hurt our economy. But atleast there would be no US aid to them.

Ah, do we have a cowering in fear SDRE here?

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby satyam » 29 Jul 2010 00:51

Rahul Gandhi should leave India then.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby archan » 29 Jul 2010 00:52

satyam, stop it.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Brad Goodman » 29 Jul 2010 00:54

satyam wrote:Rahul Gandhi should leave India then.


He owns the place its his jagir. SDRE are expendible so they can make the choice

1) Leave India and settle in west
2) Take everything that happens as Karma and live for next day
3) Raise the stakes for Yuvraj (by voting against him) so which in turns means Yuvi takes action on TSPA

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby Sam » 29 Jul 2010 01:16

Brad Goodman wrote:
satyam wrote:So these leaders were killed by TSPA . This is rubbish.

You are mixing issues. GM was ISI. Daddy was LTTE (no evidence of ISI there) but the point was India's WILL to raise the stakes so my point was Raj mata will not allow. If you take few moments to grasp the topic you will not jump the gun.


Many years back ppl have discussed LTTE-ISI nexus here on BRF so Rajiv Gandhi's assasination may not be solely due to LTTE.

Agree with other comment that if Sonia Gandhi is worried of Rahul Gandhi being killed then the family should move out, maybe to Sicily.
Last edited by Sam on 29 Jul 2010 01:23, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): July 07, 2

Postby muraliravi » 29 Jul 2010 01:18

Muppalla wrote:Did the US succeed in helping TSP stay on course and intact?
(1) US is working on a plan to see Pasthuns are less angry. TSP may just allow them to do whatever they want in Punjab. TSPA may gift Pastuns to go and rape as many women as they want in Punjab. The rentier state can rent the selected portions of Punjab to Pasthuns to buy peace and put back the machines on course.


What exactly is that pashtuns want? I think it is better we spell it out clearly. Without that, this argument is not complete. If pashtuns want a pashtunistan where only they rule and they want sharia all over it and mullah omar as president, how is pakistan going to buy peace with them by renting out parts of punjab.

Muppalla wrote:(2) Allow Taliban to takeover Afghanistan so that they can lead Afghans and also they have Punjab for flesh. TSPA will make sure the tap water goes to designated vessel.


What if the taliban/pashtuns feel that they can overwhelm the paki army in terms of force in their strongholds in border areas and that they can create pashtunistan by sheer force, why will they buy peace with pakistan army.


In all this, one thing is clear, India can very well close pakistan's tap (not by destroying it) but by just frustrating them. One way to frustrate them will be to go by the stupid appeasement policy we did (from 2004-2008) or by building really top level strong defenses (hopefully we are doing that from 2008 onwards). The stronger we get in terms of intel, security and border mgmt, the more the tap fails. What will happen to pakistan's tap, if it exists but is clogged??
Last edited by muraliravi on 29 Jul 2010 01:25, edited 1 time in total.


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