D Roy wrote:
3 P-15 + 3 P-15A Kolkata + 4 P-15 B + maybe 1-2 Kashins = 10-12 DDGs
3+3+4 Talwars + 3 Shivalik + 3 Brahmaputra + 7 P-17 A follow on shivalik ( 4 at MDL 3 at GRSE) = 23 FFGs
Gorshkov + IAC-1 (2014-15) + IAC -2 ( 65000 tonne) ( 2018) = 3 Carriers.
IMHO we are likely to see all of the modified Kashins (Rajput class), but in slightly different role -- upgraded and armed with Dhanush and/or Brahmos with land attack orientation.
We only know of 3 + 3 Talwars. There is ongoing occasional reports about negotiations for additional 4
IMO, the above overlooks some of the extremely capable IN ships which have been upgraded or are likely to see serious upgrades as a means for maintaining credible strength while the newly designed ships etc. begin rolling out (I am referring to post 15B and 17A).
Existing part of fleet that are prime candidates in surface fleet 2020:
Upgraded Rajput class (5 originally commissioned 1980 to 1988)
Upgraded Godavari Class (3 originally commissioned 1983 - 1988)
Upgraded Brahmaputra Class (3 originally commissioned 2000 - 2004)
Delhi Class/P-15 (3 originally commissioned 1997 - 2001)
Kolkata Class/P-15A (3 to be commissioned 2011 - 2013)
Talwar Class (3 commissioned 2003-2004; 3 to be commissioned 2011-2012)
Shivalik Class/P-17 (3 commissioned/to be commissioned 2010-2011)
That is a total of 29 ships
Shivalik Class NG/P-17A (7 to be built, parallel production MDL and GRSE)
Kolkata Class NG/P-15B (4 to be built)
Shivalik NG/P-17A: Production is not to start till upgrades are complete at MDL/GRSE.
So construction will not begin till 2012 in both places.
Assuming historical 2 years to launch, 5 years from launch to sea trial, and 1 year to commissioning (based on P-17).
The first of the 2 P-17A will commission in 2020, with 1.5 years between subsequent pairs. None of the 7 will be delivered before 2020.
Kolkata Class NG/P-15B: Based on INS Chennai, laid down to launch ~ 4 years and commissioning additional 3 years.
The first P-15B will be commissioned no earlier than 2017/2018, with 1/year for next 3 years. Optimistically, we will have 3 of the P-15B by 2020.
Surface fleet, based on current orders and expectations: 32 total.