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CRamS wrote:Israel can and will take out Iran's nukes in a heartbeat.
Not true. If what you say is credible, Iran's nuclear facilities would have been taken out long ago. The fact is that a dispersed nuclear program is hard to stop, especially when a country is as large as Iran is and has good bargaining chips like oil.
It depends on what "take out" means. You are right Iran is not foolish to keep all its nukes in one place. Plus, I am told that Iran's nuke facilities are all underground. But Israel can easily cripple Iran's capability to launch nukes through a devastating aireal bombardment. Plus, I think US knows (and by default Israel too) that exact GPS coordinates of every aspect of Iran's nukes through HumInt (the entire Iranian opposition is in US hip-pocket doing US's bidding).
Guru:
I do get your point. India's whining to USA etc about TSP is no different from Israel' whining about Iran. Israel's whining not only gets a hearing, it gets empathy and total support. India's whining re-enforces equal equal even further . Or worse, demands from India to placate TSP.
Iran's position is so secure that its territory is pretty much hermetically sealed. Look at the security layers: 1) Israel's own overwhelming militray superiority over Iran, 2) USA & entire NATO's militray capability to defend Israel should there be any hanky panky from Iran, 3) that Iran should not have any nukes, not even wet dreams, is the policy of the entire "world", i.e., USA & its European lackeys. What more does Israel need?
Contrast that with what India has, if any, over TSP.
Last edited by CRamS on 27 Dec 2010 10:27, edited 1 time in total.
A_Gupta wrote:New York Times story: Necessity Pushes Pakistani Women Into Jobs and Peril. . .
. . . Sometimes men misinterpret simple acts of customer service, like a smile. Fauzia, who works as a cashier at KFC, said that last year a customer was so taken with her smile that he followed her out the door and tried to force her into his car before she escaped.
This type of behaviour largely comes from the practice of severe seggregation of men and women and is common in Islamic countries which follow Shariah. The fact that women still work in Pakistan means that strict Islam is not being followed. No wonder 'bad Taliban' are burning down schools.
CRamS wrote:Contrast that with what India has, if any, over TSP.
Precisely. So who is "whining"? That was the phrase Avram used. It showed a complete lack of analysis. The bravado that exists in Israel, generated by bombing helpless countries using advanced American weapons, is not applicable to any other country.
ShError is spicing up the blog to get some traffic. Otherwise what is the point of quoting a totally ridiculous paper to generate some comments. And jazz it up with a photo of X-47 UCAV? The depths this guys go.
Veteran Kashmiri Hurriyet leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani has lashed out at the Pakistani political leadership for what he said putting the Kashmir issue on backburner and doing nothing to settle this core dispute with India.
While speaking, Syed Ali Shah Geelani said that strong association with Pakistan was the part and parcel of our lives but the Pakistani leadership and media had dispirited us very badly.
“Pakistani media is giving the excessive and undue coverage to those who are our enemies and not giving importance to the freedom struggle to the extent that it deserves”, he opined.
He said that Kashmiri people have pinned hopes in Pakistan but our gashes were being salted instead of healing by the Pakistani leaders.
Isn't this reason enough to get this Geela nahi arrested for treason ?
-------------------------------------------------
And here is one more reason 10 paarcenti's days seem numbered
“PML (N) is Pakistan-friendly and not the government-friendly opposition party,” Nawaz said adding that the party would continue working and striving hard for the speedy progress, prosperity, security and sovereignty of Pakistan.
He said PML-N is a revolutionary party. He himself is an innovative person, adding that the PML-N is a sign of revolution.
Last edited by SSridhar on 27 Dec 2010 18:18, edited 2 times in total.
Reason:Fixed formatting issues
KHYBER AGENCY: Two Nato helicopters violated Pakistan’s border limits on Monday morning, entering through the Torkham border located in Khyber Agency, according to security officials.
The Nato helicopters entered from the Torkham border into Landi Kotal area of Khyber Agency bordering Afghanistan, said security officials.
Nato helicopters have also previously violated Pakistan’s border limits and targeted a security checkpost killing three officials.
CRamS wrote:Israel can and will take out Iran's nukes in a heartbeat.
Not true. If what you say is credible, Iran's nuclear facilities would have been taken out long ago. The fact is that a dispersed nuclear program is hard to stop, especially when a country is as large as Iran is and has good bargaining chips like oil.
Its not that. The fallout of a strike is what everyone is worried about. At this juncture, the US can't afford a war.
India is whining about TSP because we don't want a war. MMS is more worried about the ekhanomy. If tomorrow, we took over TSP, do you want our troops to live in an Iraq/Afghanistan type situation? MMS is also scared about TSP using their nooks. Yes, TSP will get annihalated, but is it a price worth paying? If memory serves me right ABV didn't cross the LoC because of the nooks being mated and pointing towards yindustan.
Boy! Droneacharya has been really merciful of late! Yet another strike,15 faithfuls have been dispatched to get their quota of 72.
MIRAMSHAH: A US drone strike in Pakistan’s northwestern tribal belt killed 15 militants on Monday, destroying a vehicle and a compound in North Waziristan, local security officials said.
The strike took place in Mir Ali village, 25 kilometres east of Miramshah, the main town of the North Waziristan tribal district, Pakistan’s premier fortress of al-Qaeda-linked militants near the Afghan border.
“At least 15 militants were killed in a US missile strike, which targeted a vehicle and a compound,” a senior Pakistani security official told AFP.
“Four missiles hit the vehicle and two struck the compound,” he added.
The identities of the dead were not immediately clear, but officials believed that most of them were Pakistani, rather than Afghan or Arab fighters.
Not true. If what you say is credible, Iran's nuclear facilities would have been taken out long ago. The fact is that a dispersed nuclear program is hard to stop, especially when a country is as large as Iran is and has good bargaining chips like oil.[/quote]
Its not that. The fallout of a strike is what everyone is worried about. At this juncture, the US can't afford a war.
India is whining about TSP because we don't want a war. MMS is more worried about the ekhanomy. If tomorrow, we took over TSP, do you want our troops to live in an Iraq/Afghanistan type situation? MMS is also scared about TSP using their nooks. Yes, TSP will get annihalated, but is it a price worth paying? If memory serves me right ABV didn't cross the LoC because of the nooks being mated and pointing towards yindustan.[/quote]
The moot point is missed here....as long as unkil has 50k+ forces in Eyeraq, any attack on Eyeran is off the table - no matter how much whining Eyesrael does. (The same with Eyendia with respect to US forces in Afghanistan ....with Pak in indirect control of feeding these forces.).....Eyeran can squeeze the balls of these US forces in Eyeraq if there is any change in current status quo......I think unkil and eyeran have come to an understanding after a bitter three years of tit for tat experience...where Eyerian diplomats were kidnapped and in return eyerinian backed shis forces made the unkil's life miserable.....Now both sides have come to a stalemate.......
Add to that the fact that Iran can pretty much shut down the Straits of Hormuz by targetting shipping passing through there resulting in skyrocketing shipping insurance and oil over $200 a barrel which will send the already shaky world economy into a tail spin.
that will trigger a immediate US attack on iranian navy and related AF facilities on land to lift the blockade. ofcourse there will still be a spike in oil for a few weeks - but US supporters in gulf and free agents like nigeria/venezuela will no doubt cash in by lifting production to overclocked levels for a while - and iran will be pounded from the air and sea back to the paleolithic age - they might lob a few conventional missiles on israel - kill a few jews - no impact on the overall scheme of things - IDF will be asked to exercise yindu style restraint while the F-15Es rip the iranian infra apart.
end result will be the iranian regime has no cash, no foreign trade, broken infra and a starving and rebellious urban horde scavenging for food stamps. thats not good for the 'moderate izlamic' regime surely.
sher khan forces in iraq will take some hits, but iran really will not have any logistical lines and POL left to supply any raiding forces after the initial surge - not with F-18s and F-16s swarming like a cloud of black bees day and night looking for easy meat...loaded to the gunwales with guided munitions and laser pods - the sher khans night bombing and target finding ability has increase vastly in a continous series of rolling upgds. iranian sea skimming microlight jihadi ASMs will fly out to engage and people using 12 gauge shotguns standing the rails will bag them like geese.
iran can push people around only to a degree, not to infinite degree.
iran's faithful ally and biggest oil client the big lizard ($100b in signed deals) will no doubt exercise its usual statesmanship and sit quietly by as its munna gets beaten to a pulp - they did that in kargil too
khan will recover the cost of war by browbeating the gulf sunni arabs that their biggest threat is reduced, so pony up a few hundred billion $ in new arms deals and bring price of petrol back to $50 a barrel.
British Police Charge 9 on Terror Offenses
By ALAN COWELL
Published: December 27, 2010
LONDON — A week after a series of coordinated raids in three cities, the British police said on Monday that they had charged 9 of the 12 men they arrested in what seemed to be a sign that Europe’s concerns over potential terrorist attacks are spreading.
Three of the 12 men were released without being charged, the West Midlands Police said in a statement shortly before the men appeared in court in London accused of “engaging in conduct in preparation for acts of terrorism.”
The men, five of whom were said in British news reports to be of Bangladeshi origin, were accused of offenses including reconnoitering targets, conspiracy to cause explosions and testing incendiary material. On Monday, Judge Howard Riddle ordered all nine of them to be held in prison until a further hearing on Jan. 14.
The arrests a week ago came shortly after the police in Germany moved against two Salafist Muslim networks suspected of seeking the imposition of an Islamic state. The arrests earlier this month were seen as reflecting growing concern in Berlin over the radical messages of some Islamic groups.
On Saturday, prosecutors in the Netherlands said they had arrested 12 Somalis suspected of plotting a terrorist attack.
In recent days, European concerns over terrorism have also seemed to mount after a suicide attack in Sweden by a British resident, a number of terrorism arrests in Spain and France, and other alarms in Germany over fears of a terrorism attack modeled on the 2008 Mumbai killings. The alerts have been given added weight by a warning in October from the State Department in Washington, cautioning of reports of a planned attack in a European city.
In London the men charged with terrorism offenses, aged between 19 and 28, were from three separate areas of Britain: Cardiff in Wales, Stoke-on-Trent in the English Midlands and London. The charges related to various periods between Oct. 1 and Dec. 20 — the day of their arrests.
Their alleged offenses were said by the police to include downloading and researching material from the Internet. The nine men were said to have agreed on potential targets, although those have not been made known.
The West Midlands Police said those charged from Cardiff were Gurukanth Desai, 28; Omar Sharif Latif, 26; and Abdul Malik Miah, 24.
The London residents charged on Monday were Mohammed Moksudur Rahman Chowdhury, 20; and Shah Mohammed Lutfar Rahman, 28.
The accused from Stoke-on-Trent were identified as Nazam Hussain, 25; Usman Khan, 19; Mohibur Rahman, 26; and Abul Bosher Mohammed Shahjahan, 26.
Sue Hemming, the head of the Counter-Terrorism Division of the Crown Prosecution Service, said in a statement that she was satisfied that there was sufficient evidence “for a realistic prospect of conviction, and it is in the public interest that these men should be charged with these offenses.”
When the men were seized, the BBC said they were linked to an investigation, led by the MI5 domestic security service, involving Al Qaeda within Britain. The suspected plot was said to be in its early stages.
Britain’s current assessment of the threat of a terrorist attack stands at severe, its second-highest level, meaning that an attack is seen as “highly likely,” according to the MI5 Web site.
The conspiracy theorist inside me tells LeT is planning another attack and then if IAF retaliates they want to test their defences.
The Pakistan Navy today successfully test-fired several surface-to-air missiles to assess its air defence capabilities, officials said.
Three surface-to-air missile tests were carried out in Sonmiani area of Sindh province, a navy spokesman said, adding all missiles hit their targets precisely.
Jeffrey Souter, a major in the U.S. Army, is a student at the Fort Leavenworth Command and General Staff College who specializes in Middle Eastern studies. He worked at the U.S. Embassy in Pakistan in 2009.
Before we criticize Pakistan’s commitment to the United States, we should ask ourselves how committed we are to Pakistan. What will our relationship be in five years, after we draw down our forces in Afghanistan? We continue to invest heavily in India’s tech and service sectors, so who will we favor in 15 or 25 years? If India invades Pakistan again, who will we support?
From the Pakistani perspective, maybe they aren’t the ones with commitment issues.
God bless us if this is the kind of people thinking in foggy bottom and pentagon
British Police Charge 9 on Terror Offenses
By ALAN COWELL
Published: December 27, 2010
...
The West Midlands Police said those charged from Cardiff were Gurukanth Desai, 28; Omar Sharif Latif, 26; and Abdul Malik Miah, 24.
WTF! Why is a Hindu name appearing in this list? Maybe some abdul gave a false name? The DDM might seize this opportunity to indulge in more Hindu bashing.
KARACHI: Pakistan’s fiscal deficit may exceed 7 per cent of economic output, endangering its standing with international donors, due to a delay in implementing a reformed general sales tax, analysts said on Monday.
“If the IMF loses confidence in the government’s ability to manage this deficit, funding from other foreign institutions is also likely to dry up, resulting in severe consequences for the country.”
In November 2008, Pakistan agreed to an $11 billion bailout programme with the IMF to avert a balance of payments crisis. It received the fifth tranche of the loan – $1.13 billion – in May 2010.
But the delay in the sixth IMF tranche, a lack of foreign aid and the cost of rebuilding after August’s floods has more than trebled government borrowing from the central bank, to a provisional 324.64 billion rupees ($3.785 billion) from Jul. 1 to Dec. 11, compared with 106 billion rupees in the same period last year.
To try and make up the shortfall, the government is considering a “Plan B”, according to media reports.
“The government does not realise the gravity of the situation and the sense of compliance is not there as they are not in pressing need to get a tranche released from the IMF because of the improving current account balance,” said Asif Qureshi, a director at Invisor Securities Ltd. He said that balance could easily deteriorate with the rise in international oil prices.
Pakistan’s current account has shown a surplus for the last three months. The IMF bailout was designed to shore up reserves and avert a balance of payments crisis.
Singha wrote:WTF! Why is a Hindu name appearing in this list? Maybe some abdul gave a false name? The DDM might seize this opportunity to indulge in more Hindu bashing.
Isnt Gurukant Desai name of Abhishek Bachchans caracter in the movie Guru?
Former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has accused former Premier Nawaz Sharif of supporting Baloch nationalist leaders, charging that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief was trying to draw "political mileage" from the Baloch unrest.
Despite being banned, alcohol is easily available, prompting rising alcoholism and a growing trade in clinics trying to treat middle-class patients
Waiters serve scotch on the sidelines of society weddings and corporate functions; ministers drink openly at functions but hide their glasses when photographers come round. Bootleggers offer home delivery, so that ordering a bottle of booze is as easy as calling for a pizza, and likely to arrive more quickly
Islamabad, Dec 27 (ANI): The incidents of sexual harassment against women, particularly rape and gang rape incidents have increased at an alarmingly rate of over 13 percent across Punjab and the Gujranwala regions in Pakistan.
British Police Charge 9 on Terror Offenses
By ALAN COWELL
Published: December 27, 2010
...
The West Midlands Police said those charged from Cardiff were Gurukanth Desai, 28; Omar Sharif Latif, 26; and Abdul Malik Miah, 24.
WTF! Why is a Hindu name appearing in this list? Maybe some abdul gave a false name? The DDM might seize this opportunity to indulge in more Hindu bashing.
A Convert?
Adding to what Sridhar has said it will be recollected that one of the “Toronto 18” group of Muslim terrorists was Vikash Steven Chand who was a Hindu born convert to Islam.
Last edited by arun on 27 Dec 2010 20:13, edited 1 time in total.
asprinzl wrote:Here is the deal...Instead of interdicting the ships in the sea you just whine to the USA.
I can understand very well if sometimes folks feel like wanting to lynch the political class.
Avram Sprinzl
Not true Avram.
The pakistanis got missiles parts and machinery via ships which were intercepted by the Indian Navy on at least one occasion off the coast of Gujarat. The diplomats of several countries were taken abroad to show them the parts and machinery.
You have to understand the problem from India's POV. India is still a developing country. When facing Pakistan exported terror and its behaviour against India, India is actually facing the expression of its 3.5 masters. (How easy is it to shoot down that irritating neighbour's dog that barks and snipes at you everyday? Its simple isn't it in theory - except that you don't do it because the neighbour will be very angry and might call the cops)
Unless Pakistan's 3.5 masters decide to dump that nation and wash their hands off its terrorist activities, its aquisition of Nuclear weapons, its aquisition of missiles from the chinese and the North Koreans, India attempting to take out pakistan will be on a fools errand. India will only end up damaging its economic growth, and in the end simply see pakistan rebuild by its 3.5 masters.
The job at hand at the level of GoI is to first wean off the 3.5 from blindly supporting Pakistan. Until they see pakistan as a threat to their survival, they will continue to support the evil ways of its army. Mainly because they are themselves secure because of the distance from the region, and can play callous geopolitical games in trying to needle India via their guard doggie.
http://pakistanpal.livejournal.com/955796.html
Let’s stop flattering India so much
Ay azz A mir ( professional wailer of old kind paid to attend and make funeral processions loud and worth watching )
The centre of the Pakistani solar system is not the sun, as innocents may tend to believe, but our elephant-like neighbour to the east, from whose bosom once-upon-a-time we were carved: India. We may be fighting a war on our western frontier and the greatest threat to the idea envisioned by our luckless founding fathers may come from the forces of religious extremism - whose creation in present form and shape is one of the singular achievements of our defence establishment - but all our war doctrines are based on the real or presumed threat from the east.Thus, while the world marches on we remain trapped in a time warp, fighting the battles of the past, obsessed with the perception of a threat which spurs us on to a nuclear arms race underpinned by no sense of logic or rationality...as the rest of the world understands these terms.
Except for the first Kashmir war, 1947-48, which allowed us to acquire the portion of Kashmir in our possession, all our subsequent wars with India were exercises in unmitigated folly. In the name of the national interest and, from Gen Ziaul Haq's time onwards, in the name of 'jihad', our supreme keepers of the national flame have done things which in other countries would have called for the requisitioning of a determined firing squad.Haven't we gone through enough but must we still learn no lessons? Yes, the Pakistan-India border remains one of the most militarised frontiers in the world. Yes, there is an unbroken chain of military cantonments on the Indian side of the border, just as there is a similar chain - from the mountains of Kashmir to the sea - on our side. But we should be reversing this state of affairs, not advancing it.
Yes, we must remain eternally vigilant, I suppose an inescapable cliché in this sort of discussion. But the point is that we have enough, and to spare, to meet and even exceed the demands of vigilance. There may be sections of Indian public opinion hostile to Pakistan. But that shouldn't cause us any sleepless nights. There are many things about official India which we don't like. To hear Indians talk about their economic achievements, the implication being that Pakistan has been left far behind, can be tiresome, especially when repeated too often.
But the mark of being a civilized people is not to eliminate prejudice - it would be a dull world without anger and prejudice - but to keep it in check. We can indulge our fancies in private but when fancy and fantasy cloud public discourse or become substitutes for wisdom in government policy we invite trouble for ourselves.
Pakistan is not a morsel that can be chewed and swallowed. Contrary to what many in the chattering classes assert, Pakistan is not a banana republic. The United States does not run Pakistan and indeed could not, because some of our most glaring stupidities in the name of 'jihad' and national security are entirely indigenous, capable of concoction in no other laboratory.Without under-estimating the ingenuity of the CIA, would the CIA have been able to create something quite like the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi or the Lashkar-e-Taiba? The Kargil adventure could have been dreamt up only by the best and brightest in our own general staff. The fortress-of-Islam narrative can only be a Pakistani production. Making regular asses of ourselves in the name of religion is very much a home-grown talent.So let us not run ourselves down and put India on too high a perch. India cannot harm us. Let us get this dangerous nonsense out of our heads. India is not about to attack Pakistan. Its leaders would have to be crazy - crazier than us - to even contemplate the possibility. India attacked us only once, in 1971, and even then we had made such a mess of East Pakistan that it was almost like inviting India to intervene. The rest of the times we attacked India, with nothing but disaster to show for it. We should get the balance of this accounting right. The foremost task facing us as a nation is to return to normality and make education and the march to civilization our central preoccupations, instead of the totem poles currently the greatest objects of our worship: bombs and nuke-carrying missiles.
( Sir , why a Normal nation when you are destined to own whole Islam, PA shall Guard the doors of paradise in Aasman and Poak Mullah will be the sole dealer of Paradise entry permit with whoors supplied by Lahori Landuz. The Poak experiment has onlee started , give it some time so whole world can se the real product of indoctrination )
Last edited by Prem on 27 Dec 2010 23:48, edited 1 time in total.
just received a mail which among other things had a URL with the the accompanying title Petraeus: Pakistan counterinsurgency 'impressive'
But clicking the URL took me to this page Explosion in southern Afghan city of Kandahar - no mention of the General & him gushing with praise of any COIN US believes pakistan is conducting
that there have been successful "hammer and anvil" operations straddling the border, with Pakistani forces on one side and NATO and Afghan troops on the other squeezing militants.
pakistan counter insurgency impressive? - what gives?
looks like some pakistani journo found employment with AP
Update: There is yet another version of a article with the same title & attribute - this one has the General with relevant quotes
& in spite of the article being retracted from everywhere else it continues to be maintained by pakistani news outlets http://www.dawn.com/2010/12/26/pakistan ... raeus.html
Last edited by Hiten on 27 Dec 2010 23:49, edited 1 time in total.
From the Soviet–Afghan War (1979–1989) until recently, Langley had been dutiful, if not zealous, in defending—or more often ignoring—the ISI’s most egregious behavior, especially in its support of violent Islamic militants in Afghanistan and Kashmir. Even after September 11, former chiefs-of-station in Pakistan could defend Pakistani support of the Taliban, including Pakistani support of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, one of the nastiest Pashtun Islamic militants and certainly the only one ever to build fan clubs inside the CIA, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the ISI. (To be fair to Langley: Former Islamabad chief Milt Bearden didn’t ideologically admire Hekmatyar; but could praise the warlord’s eagerness to attack Soviets on an ISI/CIA approved schedule. Rootless, tribe-free, ideology-driven holy warriors did have their operational advantages over insurgents like Ahmed Shah Masoud, the Lion of the Panjshir, who fought only in the lands of his kith and kin.) Excuses for the Pakistanis have come far too easily to the lips of senior CIA case officers—as they have from many officials at the State Department and the Pentagon. These excuses are fewer now because Pakistani-aided Afghan Taliban insurgents are killing Americans and Europeans. But a change of heart now in Langley about the ISI, and more broadly about Pakistan, is worrisome (however pleasingly ironic). Pakistan’s democratically elected government has been far more successful infighting its own Islamist demons, especially its Pashtun jihadists in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and the North-West Frontier Province, than was the military dictatorship of Pervez Musharraf. However erratically and incompetently, the Pakistani military, including its loyal intelligence servant, the ISI, has invested more of its blood and treasure in fighting Pakistani Taliban and other Islamic militants than it ever has in the past.
That Pakistanis also play a double game, with us and with themselves, is beyond question: Old habits die hard, especially when those habits are grounded in ethnicity and faith. Pakistan’s pre-September 11 worldview had a certain holistic logic. Afghanistan—the Taliban war against the Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance, which became a laboratory for Central Asian Islamic militants with a sense of adventure and a high testosterone count—was an escape valve for Pakistani Pashtun religious fervor.
Non-Pashtun Pakistanis of the Sindh and the Punjab have never known exactly what to do with their Pashtuns, who don’t meld well with the “more civilized” peoples of the south. (Putting them into the army has been an effective means of solidifying ties.) Afghanistan also offered secular Pakistanis a place to show their religious bona fides. It offered a training ground for Kashmiri rebels, which appealed to just about everyone south of the Durand Line. Annoying—wounding—Hindu India is an essential part of the nation’s Islamic soul. If Americans or other Westerners perished because of the flowering of religious militancy in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, that was, well, acceptable collateral damage. When that turned out not to be okay, when America responded with unexpected power, Islamabad’s understanding of how their own country worked ceased to function.
We shouldn’t fool ourselves: If we take away American troops on the ground, our ability to wage war against Al Qaeda-affiliated forces in Afghanistan will cease to exist. (Many in Washington are afflicted with what might be called the Over-the-Horizon-Yemen-Want-To-Be-Predator-Drone-Hubris Syndrome.) A forced American withdrawal will be a stunning victory for the Taliban and those who’ve been their dogged supporters in Pakistan.
We won’t get to ignore the next Afghan civil war: We will have to choose sides, which will put us in an armed conflict against Islamabad. The Taliban’s ideological brew is unlikely to go dormant upon our departure (“We’ve won, so now we’ll behave—no more Al Qaeda and holy war for us”). The Taliban–Al Qaeda fusion, which is already advanced (it’s much more intertwined now than it was on September 11, 2001), will continue on both sides of the Durand Line. Pakistan is today a headache. But it could get a lot worse. This may seem like an abstract scenario to many on the left and the “realist” right (September 11 is, in American years, a long time ago), but to the CIA, which remains the vanguard in our battle against Islamic militancy, it might not be. And in that, there is hope. As much as Langley may now despise the Pakistanis, we are still wedded to them. And a bad marriage here is much, much better than an acrimonious divorce.
Reuel Marc Gerecht is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a contributing editor at The Weekly Standard, and author of the forthcoming The Wave: Man, God, and the Ballot Box in the Middle East.
The reason why unkil is not attacking Iran is the following:
1. Iran controls nearly half of the persian gulf which are its territorial waters. They will disrupt shipping and the oil tankers plying there. This accounts for half the world's oil output. India's oil comes from there too.
The Iranians will attack sea ports that the oil tankers dock at in Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, KSA. Even one successful attack will paralyze the whole gulf region. All these are easily within very short range missiles, which Iran has plenty in stock. There is nothing that unkil can do about this threat.
2. Unkil fancies that Ahmedinijad's popularity is on the decline. If the nautanki that went on in the western media and going by the street protests in western cities when the presidential elections were disputed in Iran are any thing to go by, regime change using the democracy option is seen as likely. That will be winning the battle without firing a shot to say the least.
Gagan wrote:The reason why unkil is not attacking Iran is the following:
1. Iran controls nearly half of the persian gulf which are its territorial waters. They will disrupt shipping and the oil tankers plying there. This accounts for half the world's oil output. India's oil comes from there too.
The Iranians will attack sea ports that the oil tankers dock at in Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, KSA. Even one successful attack will paralyze the whole gulf region. All these are easily within very short range missiles, which Iran has plenty in stock. There is nothing that unkil can do about this threat.
2. Unkil fancies that Ahmedinijad's popularity is on the decline. If the nautanki that went on in the western media and going by the street protests in western cities when the presidential elections were disputed in Iran are any thing to go by, regime change using the democracy option is seen as likely. That will be winning the battle without firing a shot to say the least.
The key word here is Strait of Hormuz, whose maximum depth of 90 metres and an average depth of 50 metres - Iran just has to sink one supertanker purposely (traffic of 15 a day) and choke the whole traffic for months to come......Crude prices going north anywhere from 150-200 USD.....
Thats the biggest worry. But Israel surgical strike a la Osirak is another angle to look into...
This is now OT for this thread, but Iran has expanded its n weapons program so that one airstrike like the Osirik strike might not completely cripple the program.
Iran does not need nukes to threaten the Sunni arab states. Its conventional military power and the threat to the world's oil supply is more powerful than any nuke, simply because it is easily usable, mere ratching up the ante will yield the necessary concessions from the arabs. That's why Israel gets worried that the nukes are intended for Israel.
KSA apparently has nukes on hot standby, I have looked at KSA's expansion of its missile storage facilities - they are exponentially growing. India needs to keep a look out for these too, even though relations between India and KSA are on the upswing, and they are the best that have ever been.
That means more and more that a peaceful democratic coup will be the option persued in Iran rather than the airstrike / war option.
. Or worse, demands from India to placate TSP.
