NoKo-SoKo War crisis

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Fidel Guevara
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Fidel Guevara » 24 Nov 2010 22:02

ShivaS wrote:As long as everything is under the hood Man or Woman we are all fine. :?:
Meanwhile There is much to lose for SoKo than NoKo hence the aggresive attitude, pluss consider the fact that if there is any opposition to Junior ill this crisis comes in handy. Hope SG takes a lesson and goes to war with TSP to install R G as PM or self as PM. No?


The parallels with India-Pak are just too much : nuke-armed dirt-poor country with no future goes up against a much richer and more powerful democratic neighbour. Richer neighbour has much more to lose, so appeases the aggression again and again, and just fires off a few artillery rounds to "teach them a lesson", and of course sends some strict "demands" and "dossiers". POTUS sweet-talks both democratic countries in urgent late-night telephone calls.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Fidel Guevara » 24 Nov 2010 22:08

Lalmohan wrote:and suddenly a million PLA soldiers stream across the yalu river and...


...and depose big Kim and little Kim and absorbs NoKo as a "historic part of ancient China"?

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Lalmohan » 24 Nov 2010 22:42

^^^ it could happen!

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Fidel Guevara » 25 Nov 2010 02:15

The more I read about NoKo, the more impressive they seem to be. Some eye-popping numbers from NoKo :

Military budget estimated at US$6 billion, in a $28B economy - 21% of GDP!!
Fourth largest army in the world - 1,106,000 full-time, plus reserve force comprising 8,200,000 personnel!!
Third largest chemical weapons stockpile in the world!! (> India, > China)

All aging junk, no doubt, but enormous numbers of aging junk. Like the Soviet general said "quantity is also a quality".

NoKo is by far the most militarized country in the world, with bunkers, strong-points, berms, tank-traps, decoys, all over the countryside. If you think of Desert Storm 1, think Saddam had 50 years to fortify Kuwait, had 4 times as many soldiers, and all more motivated soldiers, and there you have NoKo. Plus the mountains...lots and lots of steep mountains.

The US/SoKo forces may have high-tech PGMs, but do they have enough to push back invading forces - and do so quickly, before Seoul's time runs out?

In any counter-attack and invasion into the North, what do the air support and UAV's go after? For every NoKo missile TEL there will be a hundred decoys. Even the US cannot afford to randomly fire a Hellfire or LGB for each so-called "target", knowing that 99% are likely to be bamboo-reinforced-styrofoam constructs (covered in aluminium foil for added radar visibility)!

Not as easy as first thought...

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Hitesh » 25 Nov 2010 02:36

And the North Koreans are starving. They will not last under a sustained war. They simply do not have the required reserve of foodstuffs to survive a total embargo. There would be massive floods of refugees coming from NK into China. And this time, China is not coming to save NK's bacon but to prevent a flood of refugees from washing over onto Chinese shores and causing an economic and social nightmare. If a war ever start, it would be the end of Kim's dynasty because the PLA would storm through the northern borders of NK and take over Pyongyang before SK could and force SK back to its pre war borders with carrots and a big stick. US would be happy to oblige because in exchange for not getting involved too much and pressuring SK back to its prewar borders, China will agree to defang NK and set a stabilizing force in NK. SK would be happy with the final result because it means that SK is spared the expense of rehabilitating 23 million NKs who are in far worse shape than East Germans were when West Germans rehabilitated East Germany in its unification process. Kim's options of survival are extremely limited after war is started. Not even nukes will save him because the specter of NK refugees washing over the shores of China is greater than the damage of one or two nukes could ever do.

Kim knows all of this and is just saber rattling. But he is definitely walking on the fine edge between his hardliner generals, his reformists, the Chinese, and his desire to preserve his "legacy."

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Hitesh » 25 Nov 2010 02:41

Fidel Guevara wrote:
Surya wrote:Noko arty capable of hitting Seoul is about 500

so of course the geniuses calc 4 or 8 rounds per minute and come up with the scary numbers,

As if Noko will be firing with the same number of guns after 30 minutes

Also there are rugged mountains around Seoul - will be interesting how they factor.

The one headache is a lot of the population is around Seoul - so Seoul itself need not be hit to creates chaos

http://www.businessinsider.com/map-of-t ... rs-2010-5#

It is the same "do nto strike pakistan because they will go nuclear ' nonsense


IF Noko just does arty barrages from their side, yes, they will soon be degraded with counter-battery PGM. However, they will probably push in a few miles, thereby bringing a lot more guns able to target Seoul. Also, the NoKo forces are not in a desert area like Iraqis were - their heavy artillery is deeply entrenched amongst steep mountains, with heavy concrete protection. So with the heavily protected heavy artillery from beyond the border, and the lighter guns pushed a few miles across the border, Seoul is in for a major barrage.

The US forces in SoKo are among the most heavily armed formations among the entire US military - less infantry, and lots more artillery/recon/UAV/MBT forces. Along with the large SoKo forces, the final outcome is not in doubt. What is in doubt is how much damage will SoKo suffer - can they put the NoKo guns offline quickly enough?


Seoul will indeed suffer a major damage to its infrastructure and economy but the SK military has the capability now to take out NK artillery no matter how deep they are into the mountains. They have the capability to collapse the tunnels and holes to prevent the NK from taking the artillery out and fire them. Pretty much the NK artillery are one fire shot only before they are taken out by counter artillery and MRLS and Paveway bombs. NK forces simply do not have the required force to punch through the heaviest mined area in the world and take Seoul by force. They will simply be exhausted by the time they reach Seoul and thus be set up for an easy killing exercise by SK. NK do not have the reserves. SK have the reserves.

All in all, Seoul takes major damage but NK's military will be spent and it will be open country from Seoul to Pyongyang when SK takes the counterattack initiative.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby ShivaS » 25 Nov 2010 02:47

Its not easy to subjugate a country by technology alone, look at TSP and Afghan campaign of unkil.. predetor or predator

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Hitesh » 25 Nov 2010 02:59

It is not technology but strength of force and ability to carry out such force. SK has twice the population base of NK and that SK population base is highly skilled, well fed, healthy and educated as compared to the population of NK. That means SK has the means to carry out a sustained war and subjugate NK to its will. Whether they will do it or not is the question.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby ShivaS » 25 Nov 2010 03:22

Remember SU Afghan war,

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Hitesh » 25 Nov 2010 03:37

Yes but Afghan war is not the same as Korean war. The Korean War is more akin to WWII. Soviets were considered as occupiers and Soviets didn't really see Afghanistan as their land. SK will see it different. Once war occurs, they will not stop until they are sure that NK are defeated and will engage in total war to ensure the regime is defeated. Besides, the population of NK will stop supporting Kim's regime once they get better food and supplies from SK.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Surya » 25 Nov 2010 07:51

I think if there is any place if the leadership (incl some of the nutty generals) is decapitated, the population will gladly welcome Soko

Whther the Chinese will openly interfere is a question mark. The Chinese do fear a united korea.

So all in all it will be a test of wills. But nothing will give me more pleasure then watching a united korea on China's border.



The only three countries who can bloody the Chinese are the Koreans, japanese and Vietnamese - and we need all of them.

Now back to admiring the glittering city of Seoul

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Fidel Guevara » 25 Nov 2010 07:54

Hitesh wrote:Yes but Afghan war is not the same as Korean war. The Korean War is more akin to WWII. Soviets were considered as occupiers and Soviets didn't really see Afghanistan as their land. SK will see it different. Once war occurs, they will not stop until they are sure that NK are defeated and will engage in total war to ensure the regime is defeated. Besides, the population of NK will stop supporting Kim's regime once they get better food and supplies from SK.


SK may hate the Kim regime, but they have a lot of family ties with NK. I think it is unlikely that they will engage in total war...i.e. no distinction between civilian and military targets. They are more likely to fight all-out against the NK military, but will likely not do anything that results in mass civilian casualties.

Or they can outsource the "total war" piece to the Khans, who don't really care, and say "see, it's the Americans who so cruelly killed so many NK civilians".

If this war happens, then for the first time since World War 2 we will see such large scale modern warfare - classic Soviet mass armor/artillery assault against a modern US-style army. 1971 & 1973 were too small & too short, ODS and OIL were too one-sided. A lot of military tactics & theories will be proven or dismissed.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Singha » 25 Nov 2010 08:47

the NoKo population will turn on their generals and commissars moment it looks like Soko is going to win. every town square will have a lynch mob. some NoKo army units will surely desert enmasse once writing is on wall.

but it will take a strong push and some risks to move the situation into that point of no return. Kim Jong getting a 15,000FAE on his palace would be a start.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby amit » 25 Nov 2010 12:21

William Pesek, who in my opinion is one of the most cued to Asia Gora journalists has a very good article in Bloomberg. One should try to read between the lines as Pesek saab conveys a lot of things in the cols which he writes.

Black Swans Abound as North Korea Lobs Shells

For Hu, the timing couldn’t be worse. China is struggling to keep its overheating economy on track. Officials in Beijing must slow growth, while making sure those efforts don’t antagonize hundreds of millions of Chinese seeking higher wages. You would think Hu’s regime has enough on its hands and it’s high time it put North Korea on a shorter leash. It has great financial leverage over Pyongyang.

You can bet Hu will get an earful from world leaders, including Obama. At the Seoul G-20, China was vocal about America’s stimulative monetary policies. It urged the U.S. to act responsibly for the good of the world economy. Now Obama can turn the tables and ask Hu to do the same with Kim.
{He's connecting the dots between QE2 and this sudden firing by Panda's most loyal munna, albeit in a very crafty indirect way.}


Our intelligence on North Korea is rather lacking. Media stories focus on chronic food shortages and how sanctions inflict pain. Then we learn about Siegfried Hecker’s visit this month to a nuclear plant. The Stanford University professor speaks of “astonishingly modern” technological advances at the Yongbyon reactor site. Clearly, efforts to squeeze Kim are failing. {Another pointer to Panda}

Kim’s Allowance

China owes it to the world to dock Kim’s allowance and restore some sobriety to the Korean peninsula. Lee has a very short list of options here. It also seems clear that North Korea had outside help and equipment to build its new uranium- enrichment facility so quickly. China really does need to read North Korea the riot act.

The geopolitical-risk angle here is terrible news for investors everywhere. This isn’t a straight-forward Black Swan moment. Yes, it will have an impact on markets, yet Asians are rather accustomed to Kim lobbing volatility bombs their way. Even so, this is a warning that something big and destabilizing -- beyond anything investors have contemplated -- could come from Pyongyang at any moment.

{This is China's threat to Khan saab: you try to squeeze us with quantitative easing then we will screw the global markets and put your Munna's in trouble by releasing our mad dog(s)}.

A sudden coup, for example, might unnerve investors. Ending the disastrous Kim dynasty has a certain appeal to many of us. Yet some rogue, unknown general with lots to prove might not be an improvement. With Europe’s debt crisis unfolding and the U.S. dollar shaky, missiles shot in the direction of, say, Tokyo can’t be ruled out.

Along with causing untold pain and suffering for Japan’s populace, an attack would devastate stocks, send bond yields soaring and cause havoc in currency markets.

Geopolitics in Asia often trumps economics, and events in Korea are convulsing markets that are already off balance. North Korea is Exhibit A of the potential Black Swans out there. Denial is no longer an option.


The point to note is that if Panda is loosening the lease on one of its Munnas, will it also do the same to the other Baitch that it holds with his other hand? The news of Kiya-nahi meeting all those folks should be viewed in this context.

Bottomline: QE2 has thread very close to Panda's red lines. Any further QE3 or such would cross it. So IMO this is a shot across the bow. And yes there's no way Lee can afford a hot war unless NoKo mobilises first. Any SoKo reaction would be defensive. The so-called arc of democracies in the far east is in no condition to fight.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Pratyush » 25 Nov 2010 13:52

The north is acting in a way that shows the south that it is capable of hurting them but without actually threating the major southern target.

As it would like to continue the parasicitic relationship with the south rather then ending it by acting in a hostile manner.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Lalmohan » 25 Nov 2010 14:02

this is more like goonda collecting hafta, whilst don watches quietly from beyond the yalu river

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Pratyush » 25 Nov 2010 14:12

Aptly put, the hafta can only be collected when the payer is sufficiently cowed down but not really desperate. When he becomed desperate he will stop paying and dare the goonda to do his worst.

The south has not reached that stage yet. When they do. We will see...........

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Philip » 25 Nov 2010 14:17

And now,"war games" between SoKo and Yankee Doodle. Let the "Far East Asian Games" begin?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... w-Sea.html

North Korea attack: US and South Korea prepare war games in Yellow Sea
The US and South Korea are to stage fresh war games in the Yellow Sea in the coming days in a show of force against the North Korean regime, as diplomatic and military tension remained high on the Korean peninsula.

Xcpts:
By Peter Foster in Beijing 24 Nov 2010
The announcement of the war games came as the death toll from Tuesday's bombardment of a South Korean island rose to four after the bodies of two construction workers were found in the shelled-out remains of a house.

The decision to send the nuclear-powered USS Washington, with its 75 warplanes and 6,000-strong crew, immediately angered North Korea and is likely to unnerve China which objected strenuously to similar US plans earlier this year.

North Korea, which has blamed South Korean live-fire naval exercises for its bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island, warned on Wednesday that South Korea was worsening ties with its "reckless military provocations" and its decision to cut off humanitarian aid.

Related Articles

North Korea threatens more attacks on South 25 Nov 2010
US sends nuclear aircraft carrier to South Korea 24 Nov 2010
Obama pledges to defend US ally South Korea 24 Nov 2010

In a statement the North's official KCNA news agency said South Korea was "driving the situation to the brink of war by pursuing its policy of confrontation with the DPRK (North Korea)".

The USS Washington left Yokosuka US Naval Base south of Tokyo on Wednesday morning and will begin the joint exercises on Sunday to demonstrate the US "commitment to regional stability through deterrence", according to the US Forces Korea (USFK).

The decision to deploy the USS Washington so close to the Chinese coast is reminiscent of a crisis in 1996 when former President Bill Clinton sent a carrier group through the Taiwan Strait after Beijing test-fired missiles into the channel between the mainland and Taiwan.

The US postponed plans for similar exercises last August after Beijing reacted furiously to its announcement that it was sending the USS Washington to the Yellow Sea, with one Chinese general describing the move as a "flagrant provocation".

China has refused to issue an outright condemnation of Tuesday's attack but was coming under increasing pressure from the US and Japan to be more proactive in using its influence to curb Pyongyang's belligerence.

Stephen Bosworth, the US special envoy on North Korea, left Beijing yesterday [Wed] after further talks with his Chinese counterparts which he described as "useful".

In a statement before departing however, Mr Bosworth made little attempt to hide US differences with China over how to handle North Korea, calling on Beijing to condemn Pyongyang's actions.

Japan also publicly echoed the US's private calls for China to be more forceful in using its economic and political leverage to make North Korea adhere to the norms of international behaviour.

The mood remained tense and angry in South Korea on Wednesday, with a few small demonstrations in the capital Seoul, although the majority of people went about their ordinary business.

Many kept a close eye on their televisions, however, which showed exhausted survivors of the attack arriving in the port of Incheon to be greeted by tearful family members and giving first-hand accounts of their terror when the shells began to land.

"I heard the sound of artillery, and I felt that something was flying over my head," said Lim Jung-eun, a 36 year-old housewife who escaped Yeonpyeong island with her three children, one of whom, a 9-month-old baby girl, she carried on her back. "Then the mountain caught on fire."

Despite pressure from South Korea's media which called for stronger retaliation against the North, Lee Myung-bak, the South Korean president, has responded to widespread diplomatic calls for calm with a pledge not to escalate the crisis.


PS:This is a dramatic escalation in tension.Sending in a US carrier into waters off China and NoKo is tantamount to waving a red rag to a two "red" bulls.Clinton's dramatic unppturned finger insult to China,by sending a carrier task forve through the Taiwan Straits many moons ago,resulted in a massive expansion of the PLAn,including the acquisition of 4 Sovremenny class Russian built DDGs wiuth their Sunburn missiles and new classes of conventional and nuclear subs built for the PLAN.I would not put it past NoKo to fire salvoes of missiles at SoKo/USnaval forces if they steer too close to NoKo waters,as the condemnation of the move by the Dragon indicates that it might encourage its proxy to "bloody" the Yanqui's nose.PLAN subs-and China has dozens available (including 636 Kilos),are bound to shadow the US/SoKo fleet in littoral waters,where they have the advantage over nuclear subs,and recent reports about a PLAN sub that was undetected by a us carrier task force is significant.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Philip » 25 Nov 2010 15:46

This report indicates what might be a world first,the launch of UAVs/drones to monitor the spat between the two Koreas from a submerged US nuclear sub,the "Jimmy Carter",which is rumoured to be operating off the NoKo coast.Here are some details.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/11 ... rth-korea/

The George Washington aircraft carrier is equipped with 75 planes and around 6,000 sailors. But it’s not coming alone. It’s got the destroyers Lassen, Stethem and Fitzgerald with it, and the missile cruiser Cowpens in tow. Rumor also has it that the carrier strike group will link up with another asset in area: The undersea spy known as the Jimmy Carter, which can monitor and potentially thwart North Korean subs that might shadow the American-South Korea exercises.

According to plugged-in naval blogger Raymond Pritchett, word’s going around Navy circles that the first surveillance assets that the United States had in the air over yesterday’s Korean island battle were drones launched from the Jimmy Carter.

“North Korea couldn’t detect the USS Jimmy Carter short of using a minefield, even if they used every sonar in their entire inventory,” Galrahn writes. That’ll matter in case North Korea decides to launch another torpedo attack from a submarine, as it did in March to sink the South Korean corvette Cheonan.

The Navy doesn’t say much about what the Jimmy Carter can do, but the consensus is that it’s used for “highly classified missions.” Reportedly, it can tap undersea fiber-optic cables, potentially intercepting North Korean commands.

It carries Navy SEALs to slip into enemy ports undetected. And its class of subs have 26-and-a-half-inch-diameter torpedo tubes, wider than the rest of the submarine fleet, in case the Carter has to take out rival ships. “That’s a Seawolf, the most powerful attack sub in the world,” says Robert Farley, a maritime and international-relations scholar at the University of Kentucky.

All that might be intended to keep the North Koreans from trying something during the exercises, scheduled to run from December 3 through 10. As bellicose as they’ve been this year, they’d be up against a carrier strike group on the lookout for North Korean aggression.

The North’s 10 Yeono-class midget submarines — tiny subs with a crew of only a few sailors designed mostly for firing torpedoes — is “only mildly more capable than the submarines the Nazis were using in 1945,” Farley says, but “if there’s a nervous or adventurous North Korean sub skipper out there, we could have a real problem.”

The real role of the George Washington’s carrier strike group is floating diplomacy and deterrence, signaling “the close security cooperation between our two countries, and to underscore the strength of our Alliance and commitment to peace and security in the region,” as the White House’s account of a phone call between the U.S. and South Korean presidents last night put it.

And the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association’s influential NightWatch newsletter doubts that North Korea is really preparing for war: It doesn’t appear to have issued new military alerts, and it’s competing in the Chinese-sponsored Asian Games.

But should its submarines get ready to harass the United States during next month’s exercises, chances are the Jimmy Carter will see it first.


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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Pratyush » 25 Nov 2010 16:08

Sea wolf however capable will have trouble against a conventional boat operating in the littoral with its diesal switched off.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby amit » 25 Nov 2010 16:30

Philip wrote:PS:This is a dramatic escalation in tension.Sending in a US carrier into waters off China and NoKo is tantamount to waving a red rag to a two "red" bulls.Clinton's dramatic unppturned finger insult to China,by sending a carrier task forve through the Taiwan Straits many moons ago,resulted in a massive expansion of the PLAn,including the acquisition of 4 Sovremenny class Russian built DDGs wiuth their Sunburn missiles and new classes of conventional and nuclear subs built for the PLAN.I would not put it past NoKo to fire salvoes of missiles at SoKo/USnaval forces if they steer too close to NoKo waters,as the condemnation of the move by the Dragon indicates that it might encourage its proxy to "bloody" the Yanqui's nose.PLAN subs-and China has dozens available (including 636 Kilos),are bound to shadow the US/SoKo fleet in littoral waters,where they have the advantage over nuclear subs,and recent reports about a PLAN sub that was undetected by a us carrier task force is significant.


If you ask me that's the right thing to do. That forces the Panda to come out from its hiding place behind its Munna. Dear Leader takes Hu's permission before going for a morning crap. And you think he or one of the jarnails ordered this firing without Panda's wink, wink, nod, nod?

You see the Panda is playing the same game the Pukes are playing with the Taliban. First instigate the wild dogs to attack and then make a big show and dance of being reasonable and trying to contain them.

Panda is just giving out a warning of what it would do if it's squeezed on the currency side.

PS: Philip, you always bemoan the fact that India is not more proactive with tough responses to Paki provocations. Yet you chee chee when the US shows balls and calls Panda's bluff. I wonder why? :)

JMT

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Surya » 25 Nov 2010 17:37

dramatic escalation???

:eek:

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby ShivaS » 25 Nov 2010 19:26

Surya wrote:dramatic escalation???

:eek:


Yes Its all drama is what was meant

Guys focus on english content not Korean

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby rsingh » 25 Nov 2010 19:37

Image

As we can see from map, SoKo and US are doing live fire exercises very close to NoKo border. It shows that they have a plan for Panda and Munna.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby krisna » 25 Nov 2010 20:10

this is more of a shadow boxing between the dragon and uncle thru their proxies.
Here the Uncle is on the defensive as dragon has made lot of moves in the region challenging it deftly. It has claimed all of the region as its own, threatened the smaller neighbours. This has led to the scrambling of uncle to asauge the smaller ones through its defensive manoeuvrings, (also including India in it.)
Dragon
For dragon it is a case of pushing its tentacles to see the red line which will draw the uncle out of its shell.
Later dragon will withdraw (thru proxy)and say it is peace onlee. 8)

Uncle
If uncle has to maintain its relevance it should show and act as the BOSS of the region who calls the shots and not dragon.
Also with wars in Afpak and Iraq not exactly to their liking , this might have a better success rate as soko will be their to mop up rather than uncle if things end up in war.(unlike eyerak and afpak).
what about reelection bid and more orders for super duper weapons as it happened after the first gulf war, stimulate economy.
East asian region
If uncle does not show something substantial and succeed it will send shivers down the smaller neighbours. Japan soko and others will keenly watch this developments. If uncle fails it will be disastrous for these economies as dragon will be emboldened by these (mis)adventures.
Nothing succeeds like succeeds.
let the games continue.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Tamang » 25 Nov 2010 20:43


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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby wig » 25 Nov 2010 21:59

South Korea’s Defense Chief Resigns in Wake of Attack
Mr. Kim’s departure followed one of the most violent clashes as the North and South exchanged artillery barrages on Tuesday afternoon. The battle killed two marines and two civilians on the small South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, about nine miles off the North Korean coast.

A commentary in the conservative South Korean daily Chosun Ilbo assailed Mr. Kim, saying the military had been outgunned and underprepared.

“The minister practically admitted that the military failed to respond to a new type of North Korean threat” in the Yellow Sea, the newspaper said, charging that “the military has been implementing reforms that weaken defense capabilities” on the islands.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/26/world ... ml?_r=1&hp

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby ShivaS » 25 Nov 2010 22:03

Nothing wrong with Sarah paaalin standing by Noko
Why for that matter Dr. Tim also on number of occasions defended US inaction and often pointed out how TSP is the allie of US and India is the enemy of US. One is a politician would be president, the other is instructor at Naval War college same difference

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby svinayak » 25 Nov 2010 22:04

Philip wrote:And now,"war games" between SoKo and Yankee Doodle. Let the "Far East Asian Games" begin?


PS:This is a dramatic escalation in tension.Sending in a US carrier into waters off China and NoKo is tantamount to waving a red rag to a two "red" bulls. PLAN subs-and China has dozens available (including 636 Kilos),are bound to shadow the US/SoKo fleet in littoral waters,where they have the advantage over nuclear subs,and recent reports about a PLAN sub that was undetected by a us carrier task force is significant.


This was anticipated some 4 mths ago by a senior BR member. Readiness had increased. Sept to Dec the Panda has to be engaged in other theaters and made sure that they cannot concentrate all their forces in one disputed border alone.

Panda has become aggressive and cannot be cowed down by one or two CVG. It needs stealth, SSN and other postures including exercise to make sure that they stand down.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Lalmohan » 25 Nov 2010 22:32

its actually a G2 scam to restart F22 production
US gets its toys
China gets manufacturing
everyone happy!
(just kidding)

Surya
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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Surya » 25 Nov 2010 22:43

Lalmohan

i expected that from Philip :)

From you I expected a Lal Chix storyline

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Rahul M » 26 Nov 2010 01:09

ShivaS wrote:Remember SU Afghan war,

SoKo is not as lacking in numbers, to put it mildly as SU was in Afg.

they might not be able control the north but they can certainly declaw it and make life unsustainable for the slippery il. problem is the south korean people don't want the north korean people to suffer for the mistakes of the il.

amit wrote:Bottomline: QE2 has thread very close to Panda's red lines. Any further QE3 or such would cross it. So IMO this is a shot across the bow.

even though I'm not a fan, this sounds eerily like the start of the tom clancy novel bear and the dragon.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Cain Marko » 26 Nov 2010 01:26

Rahul M wrote:
ShivaS wrote:Remember SU Afghan war,

SoKo is not as lacking in numbers, to put it mildly as SU was in Afg.

they might not be able control the north but they can certainly declaw it and make life unsustainable for the slippery il. problem is the south korean people don't want the north korean people to suffer for the mistakes of the il.


Aiyyo, but wot if il takes it personally and pheels he is going to be deposed ala Saddam? Waat iph he pushes the trigger? It takes everything out of proportion and changes equation considerably. Will the US bum NOko in response? I doubt it, response will be conventional. IOWs, in the end NOko will suffer but not as much as Soko, and possibly Japan. This, like Pakistan is a major problem - how to get past it?

Perhaps an aggressive and very comprehensive first strike targeting every/any possibility at an incredible expense is one option. I think Soko in tandem with US can do such a thing, India on its own has less chance vs. Pak.

CM.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Gagan » 26 Nov 2010 02:43

Err,
Who all in the chinese leadership / power structure are the villans here?
Who are the people who control the two pet doggies?

I assume that there will be a 'naram dal' concentrating on the economy, and a 'harami dal' concentrating on dirty games all around.

Can the china watchers on BRF post names/positions/pictures of the chinese power structure and possibly identify the villans?

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby ShivaS » 26 Nov 2010 03:43

Just revist the 1953 war and see why UN forces could not drive the commies all the way to bejing. SoKo might have a lot more to throw since then so does NoKo.

For some reason BRF residents easily point out how it is for any one to defeat an agressor but when it comes to India taking on TSPakis we all agree its not easy? no.

I am just saying this to say we have infite confidence on other armed forces but when it comes to us acting we have every rational reason not to act. But I digress.... moron that I am certified...

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Fidel Guevara » 26 Nov 2010 04:03

Pratyush wrote:Sea wolf however capable will have trouble against a conventional boat operating in the littoral with its diesal switched off.


True, but NK has only vintage subs - Romeo/Foxtrot types - 50's Soviet design with some minor upgrades. No AIP, just plain diesel-electrics.

Compared to that, the Japanese have 11 modern subs, a few older ones, and two top-of-the-line Soryu submarines. The sensor arrays are all top-notch. The South Koreans have 9 very modern German-made subs. All in all, the waters off both Koreas will be jam-packed with submarines from somebody or the other.

Most of the PLAN submarines and all of the NK submarines will not be able to keep up with a CVN steaming at battle speed, only a PLAN SSN could do that - and that's where the US SSNs have a huge advantage in stealth.

If this goes to war, the Navy & Air Forces of NK will be mince-meat within 1-2 hours. Their real strength is, and always has been, in the massive army and heavy fortifications all over.

I'm not saying it's going to be easy to invade NK and depose Kim, but relatively easy to fend off a NK adventure, and give them a bloody nose (like no more things that fly or things that float)

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby krisna » 26 Nov 2010 07:15

Image
NOKO - SOKO crisis from stratfor.

Look at the yellow line which is the military demarcation line and the green line which is the northern limit line. :roll:
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/201011 ... 82cd059509
The timing of the North’s firing at Yeonpyeongdo, then, seems to contradict the other actions currently under way in inter-Korean relations. With the ongoing leadership transition in North Korea, there have been rumors of discontent within the military, and the current actions may reflect miscommunications or worse within the North’s command-and-control structure, or disagreements within the North Korean leadership.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby Pratyush » 26 Nov 2010 11:52

FG,

The great leader is great till he is winning. If the SK gives the noth military a bloody nose over a period of say 6 or 7 days and offer a ceasefire to the North.

The great leder will no longer be as great as he seems. That at the moment ought to be the goal of the South and the Khans.

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby vardhank » 26 Nov 2010 11:59

Excuse my ignorance... what's this QE2/QE3 thing?

Also, heh, maybe if at any time Pakistan starts making threatening noises, it would be in our interests to keep the Korean peninsula boiling? With China busy on the other side, would Pak try much overt aggression? (I'm talking a very hypothetical situation... could also work if we decide to attack Pak? Keep China busy elsewhere so they don't come to Munna 1's aid?)

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Re: NoKo-SoKo War crisis

Postby VikB » 26 Nov 2010 12:20

^^^ Spot on. I agree. China cannot fight at two fronts. We should sit back and enjoy as the world gets messed up at a point which is 1000s of km away from us. Now is the time to swat some flies in our neighbourhood. We can surely raise the ante and slip in a small slap somewhere to the Pakis. Maybe down another of their 'Atlantic'!


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