Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Dec. 28, 2010

[jrjrao]

John Ellis once again nails the Paki blackmail:

Moody's Readies Credit Downgrade For Pakistan

Moody's Investor Services said today that a credit downgrade for Pakistan was more or less imminent. The reasons given were exactly what one would expect; fiscal mis-management combined with inflation equals lower credit-worthiness.

Pakistan, of course, listens to these scoldings all the time, from a wide variety of outside sources. It always promises to reform. It never does.

The reason it doesn't have to is that Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Western and some Arab governments worry that those weapons will fall into the hands of Al Qaeda. Whenever things get tight on the money side, Pakistan goes to the western and Arab governments and their various lending agencies and says: "give us some money or the weapons will fall into the hands of Al Qaeda." The western and Arab governments (and their various lending agencies) fork over more dough.

So Moody's warning is, on one level, meaningless. But on another level, it's important. It's further confirmation of the incompetence and corruption of the nation's leadership. And it's fair warning that things continue to get worse, not better, in Pakistan.

[Mahendra]

Three accused of spying for US found dead in North Waziristan

[anupmisra]

Raymond David being interrogated by pakjabi cops
"No money, no pani"
"Nestle da pure waater"

[abhishek_sharma]

Excuses and excuses

It is not even good excuse. Just lame excuses.

[ManjaM]

"The stick we have we can't use, and the carrot that the Pakistanis want [Kashmir] we can't give them," said Sibal.

Lets all drop out guns and pray for peace. Incredible, shocking, outstanding display of surrender. Well done mofos.

[hnair]

^^^

"Any rational observer would say this is not the time to nourish much hope on moving forward on substantive issues," said former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal. "But on our side they feel that vacuum is not in our favor and by not talking we would be giving up whatever little hope there is ... of stemming the rise of these radical forces and giving some backing to those who wish to normalize relations with India — especially Pakistani civil society."

aliens have landed in Pakistan?

[ramana]

Don't worry the TSP will do another terrorist attack when it gets overconifdent. Right now Davis affair, Mubarak stepping down require distraction in TSP.
And India is busy anyway with scandals and scams.

[CRamS]

And the most frustrating thing is that there is that the DDM which is supposed to ask some tough questions and unearth the reason for MMS's surrender to TSP is cheer leading.

[Pranav]

IMHO, one needs a multi-dimensional approach with Sama, Dama, Bheda, Danda.

It is not as if abstaining from Chai-Biskoot with Paks was giving any great dividends.

However one humble suggestion is that one needs to work with multiple power centers in TSP. Pak is a collection of gangs, and one needs to have an equation with each gang.

[JwalaMukhi]

^ More important to talk to 3.5 handlers than to the pakis. The handlers hold the key to the fate of the rabid dog. Talking to dog is wasted effort, other than it being a show of grandstanding compassion. Nothing else.
The only question in dealing with the rabid dog is whether to shoot it first or to confine it to... well let's say pakistan.

[SSridhar]

IMHO, one needs a multi-dimensional approach with Sama, Dama, Bheda, Danda.

It is not as if abstaining from Chai-Biskoot with Paks was giving any great dividends.

Pranav, for long, I have always felt the same way that India needs to do everything to squeeze Pakistan. I have not changed that opinion myself. If GoI has a similar approach, then one should welcome the dialogue as part of that strategy. However, I am not convinced that such a unified field theory exists among the bureaucracy and the ruling class. In the absence of such an approach, start/stop kind of talks only convey a confusion in our handling of Pakistan. The enemy gets that message and behaves accordingly.

[ramana]

When using strategy one shouldn't appear to be using anything for it to be effective.

[Pranav]

^ More important to talk to 3.5 handlers than to the pakis. The handlers hold the key to the fate of the rabid dog. Talking to dog is wasted effort, other than it being a show of grandstanding compassion. Nothing else.

Sure, talk to the handlers.

TSP is not a dog - rather it is a pack of dogs. Can some of the members of the pack be influenced in one way or another?

Each of the handlers has its own favorites in the pack.

[jrjrao]

Unkil is already fast in retreat mode.

Because here is the latest from AP, which says: OOoooooo! US is now, for sure, 400% definite, going to get real mean and nasty tough with the Pakis.

But in fact, it actually shows that the superpower is, when it comes to the Pakis, just a pooper-soower ( image for which is here ).

US weighs tougher approach with Pakistan

...detention has become a point of national honor for both nations, and a rallying point for anti-American suspicion in Pakistan.

U.S. officials said they were likely to postpone an invitation to Pakistan's foreign minister to visit Washington later this month.

Officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because the case is before a court, said the Obama administration is also considering a slow-down in visa processing for Pakistanis seeking to come to the U.S. (OOOOO, THAT WILL FOR SURE SCARE KIYANI OUT OF HIS BROWN PANTS) That would be hugely unpopular in Pakistan, where grievance already runs high over the perception that the U.S. discriminates in granting visas to Pakistanis.

The U.S. is also weighing whether to cut back on military and educational training programs with the Pakistani armed forces and civilian educational, scientific, cultural and local and state government exchanges, one official said. (AND JUST AS IN AFTER 9/11, IN A FEW MONTHS, THE UNKIL WILL BE BACK, BEGGING THE PAKIS TO COME ONCE AGAIN TO THESE TRAINING PROGRAMS IN THE US).

Canceling an upcoming three-way session among Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and top Pakistani and Afghan diplomats would be a significant slap. Pakistan prizes the forum as a means to assert influence in Afghanistan. (IDIOT -- THE PAKIS ARE ALREADY ASSERTING PLENTY HEARTY INFLUENCE IN AFGHANISTAN).

But the dispute over Davis has reflected Washington's limited leverage with a Pakistani government it relies on to help fight extremists on its soil and in Afghanistan.

"Threats go both ways. Each side has a lot of leverage on the other," said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst at the Brookings Institution and the author of "Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of the Global Jihad."

Admins, pl. 'xcuse me because I know this is a family friendly forum, but what the esteemed Bruce Riedel says above reminds me only of this:

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1324/142 ... 370163.jpg

[Pranav]

It is clear from the way things are going, that something has to give way sooner or later.

The smart powers pro-actively work towards having a favorable outcome after the dust settles. Recall how the US was encouraging the Egyptian bloggers.

[SSridhar]

When using strategy one shouldn't appear to be using anything for it to be effective.

Absolutely true. However, past does not inspire confidence. Also, past record is not an indicator of future performance, as they say in Mutual Fund adverts. The present does not seem to be any different from the past. The other hope is that Pakistan does a series of very silly things with the US that turn the tide and 3½ miraculously become 2½ and India gathers its wits and chalks out a strategy to take advantage of the situation. However, there must be a continuity in approach because this may involve different governments and political parties on the Indian side.

[ramana]

One of the friend's has to worry about getting Mubaraked. So its happening already.

Your concerns are valid.

[Anindya]

From the Jason Overdorf article...

By caving into Pakistan's demands up front and allowing Kashmir and "all outstanding issues" back on the table, India has essentially admitted that it has nothing to negotiate with. The threat of war is an empty one (thankfully), and generous aid from an opportunistic China and a fearful United States renders India's economic clout meaningless.

"The stick we have we can't use, and the carrot that the Pakistanis want [Kashmir] we can't give them," said Sibal.

In terms of our ability to create leverage, we seem to be at the same place where were 8-9 years ago - absolutely no progress has been made - what follows is a blast from the past...

http://arindam-banerji.sulekha.com/blog ... kistan.htm

It's come down to this now -- Musharraf and his cohorts are putting out bounties on the heads of Indian citizens -- anything from 1 lakh to 40 lakhs depending upon who you can kill. Not having legitimate sources of income, this extends the job opportunities for Pakistani youth, from employment in terrorist factories to mafia-style contract killings -- constant progress, brought to you by the Islamist generals. Unfortunately, Musharraf kills leaders, political activists, soldiers, women and children at will in India while our government seems to have no ability or perhaps even the will to protect its citizens. Pakistani minions have killed well over 2000 Indians just this year, while we've not been able to slow them down or even make Pakistan pay for this in any form. Unlike a wrestling match, where you win or lose depending upon how well you can exploit your leverage against your opponent, India does not seem to have any leverage against Pakistan. Pakistan, on the other hand, has exploited its three points of leverage against us remarkably well.

First, Pakistan turns up/down its well-entrenched, but covert proxy-war whenever it wants to. In fact, it has slowly extended this proxy war to multiple parts of India and has surely put stumbling blocks in our convoluted path towards economic power. It seeks Indian capitulation on Kashmir as a reward for slowing down its terrorism -- and, of course, we are considering this possibility as a strategic step towards solving Kashmir.

Second, Pakistan maintains a highly public strategy of readiness to use nuclear weapons. During any crisis, Pakistan fires its missiles or moves them around from site to site, causing panic in western governments. After all, the Americans and Russians were sophisticated enough to know about the impact of nuclear detonations; how can anybody expect these brown South Asians to know anything about the horrendous effects of nuclear war. Parleys and panicky visits follow, immediately resulting in paralyzing Indian restraint.

Finally, Musharraf has unflinching support within the conservative leadership of the United States. Some of this based upon the complete control they have over Musharraf, some based upon air bases and oil deals in Pakistan and of course, some residuals from the cold war era.....

Unfortunately, India does not seem to have any leverage against this terrorist nation, other than to beg for assistance from the US. This is not necessary, when we can do far more than wring our hands in helplessness.

[Gagan]

I wonder,
Isn't the US overreacting to the arrest of Raymond Davis?
After all he is in police custody, and has been saved from a public lynching to begin with.
And after the US consulate stepped in, the ISI won't use 3rd degree measures on him. He is probably being cared for well, getting his Nestle bottled water and biriyani burgers and all.

Why is massa trying to shame the pakistanis in public? That they already know from long experience is the worst way to get things done. Pakistan GUBOS in private for money, and Hussain Haqqani has probably been giving the SD/WH hourly updates on how well the ISI is treating RD.

Then why this halla gulla? Something is afoot.
If Zardari makes a false move, and he is being pushed into a corner on this one, because the foreign office will have to come to court and say that RD has diplomatic immunity and the brunt of the abduls anger will then have to be borne by Zardari.

Unless we know more, the working conjecture is:
Kiyani is exacerbating this to topple Zardari in a Tunisia-Egypt style public coup. I wonder what the US is doing.

[Narad]

I get a feeling that the upcoming 2011 Cricket world cup too has some angle in all these baat-cheet. IMHO one of the reasons GOI seem to be engaging TSP may be for a momentary benifit of letting the event pass off peacefully. Knowing fully well that TSPA is very desperate and frustrated to inflict another ghazi-style yalgar on India. What better way than the == SL team attack in LaWhore.

[SSridhar]

6 months of spadework done for resuming talks

[Prasad]

An attack during the world cup might be as spectacular as Mumbai 26/11 but it will be just as strategically brilliant since almost every tom dick and hairy know that its from pukistan. And even Mumbai might be forgotten by the public but any attack during cricket will live a lot longer in public memory. Of course, max reaction from GoI will be the ever-ready "we're halting all talks onlee".

[abhishek_sharma]

They didn't test 6 bums.
The Chinese tested their new bum design (possibly a Neutron bomb?), because soon after that the chinese were claiming that they had (acquired) neutorn weapons tech. To which BARC scientists also said that that technology was not unusual or unachievable for BARC.

The Pakistanis tried to test their own bomb a week or so earlier, but it didn't do off, or it didn't go nuclear. Numerous well regarded observers have hinted at this. Then musharraf had to rush to Beijing to request them to preserve H&D, and so the chinese brought their own weapons and tested them. Meanwhile they were scared that the IAF will intercept the shipment midway, so they made that story of IAF planning to attack the test site

The videos of a hillock squiggling are of the first day's test. Again that same evening different pakistani netas, scientists and faujis were saying different things about the number of bombs tested and the yeilds, because these guys were all over TV to take credit. It was laughable because everyone was obviously lying, and with the world watching.

They tested something two days after the first test. That didn't even disturb the seismographs too much, but that site was nevertheless identified as a very low yield explosion 50 odd kms west of the original test site. That probably was the pakistani design that had been re-tested.

So they probably tested between 2-3 devices and 1 chinese device.

1. 1 pakistani device a few days before the actual publicized test - failure
2. 28 May 1998 - Televised test of 1 Chinese device, possibly one Pakistani device tested simultaneously - result the chinese device probably performed as per the expectations of the chinese designers. Pakistani device did not contribute to the yield - ?Failure.
3. 30 May 1998 - 1 Pakistani device tested 2 days later - again failure / very low yield.

Then there were stories of two North Korean transport aircraft that were parked at Chaklala Air force base, Pindi during the entire events. It was speculated that the Chinese device had been brought in by air on these N korean transport planes.

My 2 naya paisa.

Gagan miyan, what is the source of this info? I mean, which book?

According to Adrian Levy's book, the Americans had the Paki design (they showed it to Benazir when she visited US), and according to the book: "it always worked".

[Gagan]

Well the Cricket world cup is definitely one possible reason why GoI is talking to the Pakistanis.

GoI did that last just before the Commonwealth games, and even engineered a 'warm welcome' from the crowd for the Pakistani team.

I would suspect that the Pakistanis will get a similar 'warm crowd welcome' in this world cup too.

BTW Bryan Adams will be performing in the opening ceremony of this world cup, (and he is on tour to Mumbai, Pune, and Bangaluru)

[Dilbu]

There is another reason also. In the absence of talks GOI will be forced to take some concrete action in case of another 26/11. Restarting talks firmly places the pressure valve back on. If there is an attack GOI can again give muh thod jawab by suspending talks.

[Anujan]

Pakistan could risk facing rating downgrade - Moody's

Current rating is B3 (they might run away with your money). Next rating is Caa (they will run away with your money unless someone else gives them more money, in which case your money might be safe)

[SSridhar]

I get a feeling that the upcoming 2011 Cricket world cup too has some angle in all these baat-cheet. IMHO one of the reasons GOI seem to be engaging TSP may be for a momentary benifit of letting the event pass off peacefully. Knowing fully well that TSPA is very desperate and frustrated to inflict another ghazi-style yalgar on India. What better way than the == SL team attack in LaWhore.

Narad, our Foreign Secretary met Pakistan's in New Delhi in February, 2010. Then, our Foreign Minister met the Great Makhdoom in Islamabad in June, ending in a complete disaster. There were voices here in BR that these talks were to prevent attacks on the upcoming Commonwealth Games in October, 2010. We are again saying now that the 'talks about talks' is to keep Pakistan in good humour so that the ICC World Cup events may pass off peacefully. As a rapidly growing India conducts more such international events (sports & non-sports), do we need to constantly grease Pakistani palms to remain safe ? Haven't we been already defeated with that approach ? A time may come when even R-Day & I-Day events will need some concessions shown to Pakistan.

It raises other questions too. Why should Pakistan be satisfied with promise of resumption of talks ? Does Gilani exercise enough control over the PA & Punjabi Taliban not to terrorize India during the event ? Won't Pakistan see through this game after a couple of times ? Won't Pakistan be tempted to blackmail us even more in this case ?

I do not believe that ICC is the trigger for talks, for it has come too late in the day.

[Gagan]

They didn't test 6 bums.
My 2 naya paisa.

Gagan miyan, what is the source of this info? I mean, which book?

According to Adrian Levy's book, the Americans had the Paki design (they showed it to Benazir when she visited US), and according to the book: "it always worked".

The source is highlighted above.

The "it always worked" quote is more in reference to the US chortcircuiting Bull Shit from pakistani leaders at the start of any meeting. The US disarms foreign dignitaries in a tag team style when they visit the White House.
After the foreign leader has gone through the pow-wow with the US babu, the POTUS steps in, all charms and smiles, for the kill.

On their part, between the Pakistanis and the Chinese, the Pakistani scientists were working in Chinese nuclear labs learning the physics and the engineering of the nuclear bum cycle. The Pakistanis were transferring Centrifuge tech to the chinese, and the chinese in turn were trying to develop improved models of those centrifuges.

Like in any astute gali-nukkad training school, it is likely that in May 1990, the chinese let the pakistanis watch as they assembled the warhead using a Chinese built trigger, chinese materials etc. The pakistani scientists may have been allowed to turn the screwdriver once or twice. And then the chinese tested that bomb for the Pakistanis at Lop Nor.

I don't know if the Pakistanis have Uranium based bombs from their uranium enrichment program or chinese supplied Plutonium bombs that the chinese supplied. IIRC the latter were taken back after 9/11 when the US got really angry. The Uranium ones probably don't go off as shown on the chinese manual.

Because if the pakistanis could, they would have loved to have a huge dhamaka that would have over shadowed the Indian tests in terms of yield in may 1998, but the only output from their tests was low yield explosion.

I use this as the working assumption when I read any news article referring to the yield, numbers, and pakistani nuclear weapons in general. Things seem to concur with this assumption at least for the time being.

Again standard disclaimers apply.

[CRamS]

An attack during the world cup might be as spectacular as Mumbai 26/11 but it will be just as strategically brilliant since almost every tom dick and hairy know that its from pukistan. And even Mumbai might be forgotten by the public but any attack during cricket will live a lot longer in public memory. Of course, max reaction from GoI will be the ever-ready "we're halting all talks onlee".

Logic, reason, morality, justice, punishment etc have no relevance when it comes to TSP attack on India or for that matter any crime that TSP commits agisnt India, even a nuke attack. Tell me, did you even in your wildest fantasy ever imagine that MMS will betray India by concoting "saffron terror" as the moral equivalence of TSP terror as a ruse to surrender to TSP, and worse, he seems to have gooten away with it. Patiala house, and whether or not Tendulkar will do will in the upcoming WC is consuming the Indian public more than MMS's surrender.

My point being that even if TSP were to pull off a spectacular attack during WC, and India has tons of evidence as obvious as daylight, what good would have come of it? Would India attack? Do you think the white boys will come down on India's side and hold TSP accountable just as all and sundry empathized with US post 9/11? And what about MMS himself? Maybe he would have dug up something about Modi to excuse TSP.

So, I think that the key reasons for India's surrender are 4-fold: 1) beg TSP to spare India from any pigLeT attack, including during the upcoming WC, 2) MMS's own proclivity to kiss up to his TSP cousins, he has not one Indian nationalist bone, he is a "South Asian", 3) Indian's lack of offensive capability to punish TSP without shooting itself on the foot, and 4) The US-led western colonialists for whom the fight against "Al Queda" with TSP's so called "help" is so sacrosanct that India has to endure TSP's terrorist machinations and give in to its demands.

[Gagan]

One reason why GoI wants talks with the Pakistanis is perhaps because realtions between India and Pakistan have been so strained from the begining, wars etc, that even usual treaties that exist between two normal countries, don't exist between India and Pakistan.

It suits the Pakistanis fine just like this, because they want to project India as the enemy, sponsor terrorist attacks. Pakistan has in effect never stopped its war against India since 1947, there may have been numerous taquiyyas in the interim, but in their mind, they are still at war.

In talks with them either directly, or through SAARC etc, an attempt made to get some agreements on basic non controversial topics, streamlining laws etc. But the ISI and the Army-wallahs there, are so suspicious all the time that they sabotage everything.

[abhishek_sharma]

Cricket world cup is also the best time for talks because people are not paying attention to these issues.

[ramana]

Gaganullah is right.

The German Chancellor and Japanese PM announced on May 16 th at the G-7 mtg that TSP tested and soon the statement was withdrawn.
As for it always worked could be psy-ops to prevent BB BSing.

[habal]

An attack during the world cup might be as spectacular as Mumbai 26/11 but it will be just as strategically brilliant since almost every tom dick and hairy know that its from pukistan. And even Mumbai might be forgotten by the public but any attack during cricket will live a lot longer in public memory. Of course, max reaction from GoI will be the ever-ready "we're halting all talks onlee".

Logic, reason, morality, justice, punishment etc have no relevance when it comes to TSP attack on India or for that matter any crime that TSP commits agisnt India, even a nuke attack. Tell me, did you even in your wildest fantasy ever imagine that MMS will betray India by concoting "saffron terror" as the moral equivalence of TSP terror as a ruse to surrender to TSP, and worse, he seems to have gooten away with it. Patiala house, and whether or not Tendulkar will do will in the upcoming WC is consuming the Indian public more than MMS's surrender.

it is fully imaginable for MMS to do such a thing, he is not elected and does not owe any section of the Indian public. He is an appointee of external interests and by correlation also beholden to their Indian arm, viz the petroleum businessman and likes (apni dukan hai). He has to satisfy his benefactors, which he does at every available opportunity.

the difference in 1971 was that there was nothing much to lose, in such that there was not much earning potential wrt Indian economy in the wisdom of its political patrons. That is not the case now, there is money to be made now and the bunch of the lalas in political garb just cannot develop the fortitude for war.

But post 26/11 some kind of ultimatum has been passed on to pakistan in such that there hasn't been any major terror-strike since then. Ofcourse GoI isn't going to make the same public, for preserving H&D of tspa but an unspoken red-ilne seems to be in effect since then.

[CRamS]

Sorry to sound harsh, but Indian elite and many a Indian public were ecstatic at slum dog Oscars witout realizing that they are pissed upon.

Thus, I am wondering if US isn't capable of pulling of the following stunt post Egypt. First instigate the Kashmiri Muslims to go on a revolt Egyptian style demaning "azaadi" and "freedom" from "Indian oppression". They then call up their boy MMS and tell him to restrain the security forces, as if he needed any prodding (he might actually deploy the security forces against any Indian nationalist opposition to KM demands). In the mean time, with some nudge, nudge strategy from CIA, the Bakara types, Sagarika Ghosh types, and other "green generation" as Sagarika calls western aping Indian middle class; all go marching into the streets of New Delhi in support of the the "right of self determination" and "azaadi" and "freedom" of KMs from "oppression"; and rope ever more #s in a day or two using facebook and twitter, all this circus augmented with round the clock commentary on CNN, BBC, Faux about what a great democracy India is, how Gandhian Mirwaiz fakroo and the vegeratrian terrorist are in their peaceful demands for freedom, and wallah the final nail on India's coffin, MMS declaring in address to the nation and world from the ramports of the red fort that as the world's largest democracy and living up to democratic principlesz, he grants KMs their "azaadi". And of course, the Sweedsih Nobel committee announes the joint Nobel for him, Mark Zuckerberg, and Kiyani soon after.

This kind of a scenario is not fiction, a realistic scenario speculated on recent developments under MMS & Co.

[Nihat]

Another one meets the "72"

[abhishek_sharma]

Nobel prize is so passe' these days from the dizzying heights of Raisina Hills.

No. It is that "legacy" thing.

[Chinmayanand]

AoA !!! Amid all this nobel confusion, TSP dhaga has met its 72 raisins again . IB4TL !!!

[RajeshA]

I am eating kheer today. Does anybody have spare raisins? IB4TL!