China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

[bmallick]

one thing China has gotten it right since the Mao days is to not give a crap about international opinion, only pragmatic calculations of risks and rewards. Surely they don't always get it right, but they'll do what they believe needs to be done, western media be damned.

I don't think its that simple. I believe the Chinese do care a great deal about what the West and others say - but they are looking for admiration and respect.

The Chinese definitely care what the World thinks of themselves. They have understood the fact that in the dirty, wild, hard world of real politiks, where everybody is a bully, you have to stand on your own and get counted. You need to be the best in every field for earning admiration and respect. Hence a conscious effort to be the number one, be it olympics medal tally, go deep in the ocean, etc. When you start better what has been done and be the number 1 in a few fields, suddenly everybody respects you and your voice is heard. The meek inherit the world only in dreams.

[Philip]

Two key nations with which India should enhance naval ties are Vietnam and Indonesia,with whom we have long friendly ties.Years ago the Indonesians wanted us to service their Soviet era warships,but as usual babudom delayed matters.We need to act rapidly so that the PLAN is challenged in the Indo-China Sea.I wish that all BRites start calling that waterbody as I've done,as the entire landmass of the region is also called "Indo-China" giving the nomenclature legitimacy!
The Phillipinos too need to strengthen realtions with India.

Meanwhile,more news of China's "Leaky boat"!

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... 945032103/
Xcpt: Read the full story.

SUBMARINE NUCLEAR LEAK

A leak of radioactive material was detected at a submarine base near the Chinese port city of Dalian in northern China, the U.S.-based Chinese website Boxun reported over the weekend.

The accident reportedly occurred Friday, according to Boxun, when one of the two Jin-class ballistic missile submarines at the Xiaopingdao naval base near Dalian was being outfitted with electronic equipment.

The news portal reported that the information came from a “direct and exclusive source” familiar with the mishap. Questioned by Inside China, a Boxun editor stated that the source for the report was from inside the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) who was “reliable.” Pentagon spokesmen have not commented on the reported accident.

[NRao]

So basically the Filipinos are going back on a multilateral agreement that was just reached late last month, but a story is written about China's verbal response to the Philippines' concrete violations?

In line with the latest trends, set by China of course, the agreement was stapled.

I guess by the time the agreement got to the GoPhil, the staples fell off?

__________________________

China needs to stop being greedy .................... for once.

Dial down.

[NRao]

if it was China constructing buildings on disputed islands

IF?

China HAS occupied territories (where she can "constructing buildings" in the thousands) and HAS refused to return it!!!

(And, what is this about front page editorials? Do they always appear on the front page? Or is it to threaten others when they appear there?

Childish behavior.)

[rajrang]

Two key nations with which India should enhance naval ties are Vietnam and Indonesia,with whom we have long friendly ties.Years ago the Indonesians wanted us to service their Soviet era warships,but as usual babudom delayed matters.We need to act rapidly so that the PLAN is challenged in the Indo-China Sea.I wish that all BRites start calling that waterbody as I've done,as the entire landmass of the region is also called "Indo-China" giving the nomenclature legitimacy!
The Phillipinos too need to strengthen realtions with India.

Meanwhile,more news of China's "Leaky boat"!

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... 945032103/
Xcpt: Read the full story.

SUBMARINE NUCLEAR LEAK

A leak of radioactive material was detected at a submarine base near the Chinese port city of Dalian in northern China, the U.S.-based Chinese website Boxun reported over the weekend.

The accident reportedly occurred Friday, according to Boxun, when one of the two Jin-class ballistic missile submarines at the Xiaopingdao naval base near Dalian was being outfitted with electronic equipment.

The news portal reported that the information came from a “direct and exclusive source” familiar with the mishap. Questioned by Inside China, a Boxun editor stated that the source for the report was from inside the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) who was “reliable.” Pentagon spokesmen have not commented on the reported accident.

I would include South Korea and Taiwan in this list.

[Kartik]

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9630/vietnam-india-boost-naval-ties-to-counter-china

Even as Vietnam and China continue to conduct tit-for-tat naval maneuvers in the South China Sea, Hanoi has started making direct calls for foreign involvement in the two nations' maritime territorial dispute.

While many commentators saw this as a thinly veiled invitation to the United States, it could also be a precursor to India establishing a permanent presence in Vietnamese waters. India has apparently responded favorably to Vietnam's offer of permanent berthing rights in Na Thrang port. The move would not only add military heft to India's "Look East" policy, but is also emblematic of a larger Indian effort to counter China's activities in South Asia.

Since then the asymmetry in naval power between China and Vietnam has grown exponentially in the former's favor, while Hanoi has lost its Soviet-era security guarantees. Although Vietnam's decision to hold live naval drills in the wake of the cable-cutting incident in mid-June was seen as a show of resolve, it did little to temper ongoing Chinese surveys in disputed areas.

Clearly Vietnam requires a more credible naval power to intercede on its behalf to prevent the Chinese from upping the ante any further. That power could be India. In a move that had been in the offing for some time, India appears to have finally greenlighted long-term basing for it ships at Na Thrang, just south of China's new naval base at Sanya on Hainan Island.

The offer on Na Thrang was reiterated by the Vietnamese Chief of Naval Staff Vice Adm. Nguyen Van Hien on his recent visit to India. Nguyen visited two key Indian shipyards and conducted meetings on securing Indian help for augmenting the size and capabilities of the Vietnamese navy. While Indian public shipyards are actually at full capacity owing to domestic orders, newly established private shipyards will probably be awarded contracts to supply Vietnam with offshore patrol vessels and fast attack craft. In any case, India will continue to train Vietnamese naval personnel and help maintain any equipment that Vietnam sources from Russia. New Delhi has also agreed in principle to sell Vietnam the Brahmos supersonic anti-ship missile and possibly Prithvi surface-to-surface missiles.

Less visible, but no less critical, is the Indian IT industry's involvement in devising network-centric solutions for the Vietnamese armed forces. Criticized in the past for not putting enough heft in its Look East policy, the current tensions in the South China Sea have provided India an opportunity to display to Southeast Asia its willingness to help maintain the Asian balance of power.
A permanent presence in Na Thrang will essentially be the other bookend of India's efforts to counter a possible "third Chinese island chain" in the Indian and Pacific oceans.

Na Thrang would allow India to monitor the South China Sea side of the Straits of Malacca as well, effectively securing India's energy and commercial shipping originating in the Far East, while putting a greater swathe of China's sea lines of communication (SLOCs) within the Indian navy's reach.

The mantra in South Bloc at the moment seems to be that if the Indian Ocean is not India's ocean, then the South China Sea is not China's south sea.

Hope we continue to make Vietnam, our own backyard of China.

Having interacted with many Vietnamese at work, I can attest to one thing- they share our dislike and suspicion of China thanks to them also being the victims of Chinese aggression. There can be no better ally for India in checking Chinese naval activity than Vietnam and India should offer to sell them whatever we can develop indigenously. This is the same policy that China has used against us by propping up Pakistan, offering them weapons at generous credit terms and it makes ample sense for us to do the same. Naval warships, fast attack crafts, submarines, torpedoes, sonars, radars, Brahmos, Barak, Prithvi-II, Prahaar, Pinaka, Arjun etc. should all be on the table for them. And help them in servicing and maintenance of Russian sourced weapons with permission from Russia.

Forming an informal alliance with Vietnam, South Korea and Japan to tie up China is the way to go and India needs to be very pro-active in this regard rather than waiting for them to approach us.

[krisna]

one thing China has gotten it right since the Mao days is to not give a crap about international opinion, only pragmatic calculations of risks and rewards. Surely they don't always get it right, but they'll do what they believe needs to be done, western media be damned.

I don't think its that simple. I believe the Chinese do care a great deal about what the West and others say - but they are looking for admiration and respect.

Both views are right in a way.
CCP has 2 views just like pakis about opinions - one for internal and one for external consumption-

Internal consumption-- which the CCP views and monitors with great alacrity. It is very sensitive.
1) The CCP is paranoid about internal security. It has got rattled during the tiannenmen riots in 1989 when it killed 1000s of young chinese people. It purged officials sympathetic to the protests.The fervour of communist ideology has been lost on the chinese masses. Since then it has started a policy of indoctrination of chinese with nationalism/patriotism. It has established propagandu cells for it. . Hence this a new ruse to get the masses rally on the CCP thru nationalism. CCP + protector of nationalism, defender of china etc.Vitriol is poured on certain issues- US, Japan,Taiwan and territorial issues. Anything small spoken by anyone on these is magnified and manifold by party propagandus and circulated in internet and print media. With a ready young indoctrinated chinese in universities on nationalism, it takes its own turn thru cell phones/emails/print media etc.
In chinese universities many students are monitored and their emails cannot be anonymous, has to be in their names. They cannot be critical of CCP or communism. Hence the students take to nationalism, also with rising economic prosperity it is a natural offshot with propagandu.
many a times the protestations on foreign embassies like japan US or others are a just a show of frustration by the chinese as they cannot do on their ruling CCP. This is known to foreign govts, hence relatively quiet action from them.
2) CCP are wary of international opinion particularly western ones(read USA). it is economically interwined with it. it kisses and quarrels with it. Many a time it manufactures internal protestations to take a tough stand with negotiations. It wants to be like uncle , has respect and understands its power
However internal security is paramount and it takes precedence over external threats. Reason being CCP is ruling for a long time. Once it loses power there is no second chance as in democracy.

Like pakis it is riding a tiger of a different kind-- on a potent mix of dangerous nationalism bordering on ethnicity, economic growth, stifling media/internet/propagandu and avoiding mass unrest- trying to diffuse it by small protests at local levels.

[VinodTK]

India may disappoint Vietnam on S. China Sea

:
If Vietnam chooses to resolve the South China Sea disputes by force, Lin continued, its allies would not be able to protect it. India likely formed its alliance on the understanding that China and Vietnam will not likely enter into large-scale armed conflict. But if Vietnam were to go too far and engage China militarily, India would likely be the first to leave, Lin said.
:

The post has some good pictures of Indian ships

[krisna]

Japan Detains Two China Ship Captains, May Rekindle Tensions

Japan’s coast guard said it arrested two Chinese sea captains for operating in an exclusive economic zone on the coast of Ishikawa prefecture without permission.
The coast guard is now inspecting the shipping vessels, the authority said today in a faxed statement to Bloomberg News, without giving further details.

Japan expressed mounting concern over China’s expanding naval reach this week, saying in the government’s annual defense report that it expects the rising maritime power’s ships to become commonplace near its waters. The nation has shifted its defense focus to China from Russia and said it would deploy troops to its southwestern islands, moving personnel and tanks from northern areas.

[NRao]

India may disappoint Vietnam on S. China Sea

:
If Vietnam chooses to resolve the South China Sea disputes by force, Lin continued, its allies would not be able to protect it. India likely formed its alliance on the understanding that China and Vietnam will not likely enter into large-scale armed conflict. But if Vietnam were to go too far and engage China militarily, India would likely be the first to leave, Lin said.
:

The post has some good pictures of Indian ships

A Chinese plant.

As usual not worth paper it is written on!!!!

Nice pictures. But, please see them elsewhere. Do not give that site any more hits.

[NRao]

But if Vietnam were to go too far and engage China militarily, India would likely be the first to leave, Lin said.

Vietname by itself will never engage China in a military venture. To be sure, it will be China - as they did recently and has for many years - that will engage Vietnam, while Vietnam does what she can do in her territorial waters.

Indian presence, again to be sure, is to prevent any military engagement from China. China will think twice to engage Vietnam in the presence of Indian ships in the vicinity.

[uddu]

But if Vietnam were to go too far and engage China militarily, India would likely be the first to leave, Lin said.

To the Chinese communists: India is not U.S, nor China, who give word and break them at ease.
And Vietnam is not the one who is engaging China militarily. It's the other way around.

[rajrang]

Even as Vietnam and China continue to conduct tit-for-tat naval maneuvers in the South China Sea, Hanoi has started making direct calls for foreign involvement in the two nations' maritime territorial dispute.

While many commentators saw this as a thinly veiled invitation to the United States, it could also be a precursor to India establishing a permanent presence in Vietnamese waters. India has apparently responded favorably to Vietnam's offer of permanent berthing rights in Na Thrang port. The move would not only add military heft to India's "Look East" policy, but is also emblematic of a larger Indian effort to counter China's activities in South Asia.

Since then the asymmetry in naval power between China and Vietnam has grown exponentially in the former's favor, while Hanoi has lost its Soviet-era security guarantees. Although Vietnam's decision to hold live naval drills in the wake of the cable-cutting incident in mid-June was seen as a show of resolve, it did little to temper ongoing Chinese surveys in disputed areas.

Clearly Vietnam requires a more credible naval power to intercede on its behalf to prevent the Chinese from upping the ante any further. That power could be India. In a move that had been in the offing for some time, India appears to have finally greenlighted long-term basing for it ships at Na Thrang, just south of China's new naval base at Sanya on Hainan Island.

The offer on Na Thrang was reiterated by the Vietnamese Chief of Naval Staff Vice Adm. Nguyen Van Hien on his recent visit to India. Nguyen visited two key Indian shipyards and conducted meetings on securing Indian help for augmenting the size and capabilities of the Vietnamese navy. While Indian public shipyards are actually at full capacity owing to domestic orders, newly established private shipyards will probably be awarded contracts to supply Vietnam with offshore patrol vessels and fast attack craft. In any case, India will continue to train Vietnamese naval personnel and help maintain any equipment that Vietnam sources from Russia. New Delhi has also agreed in principle to sell Vietnam the Brahmos supersonic anti-ship missile and possibly Prithvi surface-to-surface missiles.

Less visible, but no less critical, is the Indian IT industry's involvement in devising network-centric solutions for the Vietnamese armed forces. Criticized in the past for not putting enough heft in its Look East policy, the current tensions in the South China Sea have provided India an opportunity to display to Southeast Asia its willingness to help maintain the Asian balance of power.
A permanent presence in Na Thrang will essentially be the other bookend of India's efforts to counter a possible "third Chinese island chain" in the Indian and Pacific oceans.

Na Thrang would allow India to monitor the South China Sea side of the Straits of Malacca as well, effectively securing India's energy and commercial shipping originating in the Far East, while putting a greater swathe of China's sea lines of communication (SLOCs) within the Indian navy's reach.

The mantra in South Bloc at the moment seems to be that if the Indian Ocean is not India's ocean, then the South China Sea is not China's south sea.

Having interacted with many Vietnamese at work, I can attest to one thing- they share our dislike and suspicion of China thanks to them also being the victims of Chinese aggression. There can be no better ally for India in checking Chinese naval activity than Vietnam and India should offer to sell them whatever we can develop indigenously. This is the same policy that China has used against us by propping up Pakistan, offering them weapons at generous credit terms and it makes ample sense for us to do the same. Naval warships, fast attack crafts, submarines, torpedoes, sonars, radars, Brahmos, Barak, Prithvi-II, Prahaar, Pinaka, Arjun etc. should all be on the table for them. And help them in servicing and maintenance of Russian sourced weapons with permission from Russia.

Forming an informal alliance with Vietnam, South Korea and Japan to tie up China is the way to go and India needs to be very pro-active in this regard rather than waiting for them to approach us.

and some Agnis


alliance with phillipines, indonesia also

[jamwal]

India may disappoint Vietnam on S. China Sea

Chinese being well..Chinese have done it again, even in print. Photo on this link is stolen from somewhere else without giving proper credit, most likely National Geographic TV series Mission Navy. NG logo on lower right corner is blurred.

Even this, I'm sure that I've seen this photo soemwhere else, just can't remember where.

[DavidD]

I don't think its that simple. I believe the Chinese do care a great deal about what the West and others say - but they are looking for admiration and respect.

Both views are right in a way.
CCP has 2 views just like pakis about opinions - one for internal and one for external consumption-

Internal consumption-- which the CCP views and monitors with great alacrity. It is very sensitive.
1) The CCP is paranoid about internal security. It has got rattled during the tiannenmen riots in 1989 when it killed 1000s of young chinese people. It purged officials sympathetic to the protests.The fervour of communist ideology has been lost on the chinese masses. Since then it has started a policy of indoctrination of chinese with nationalism/patriotism. It has established propagandu cells for it. . Hence this a new ruse to get the masses rally on the CCP thru nationalism. CCP + protector of nationalism, defender of china etc.Vitriol is poured on certain issues- US, Japan,Taiwan and territorial issues. Anything small spoken by anyone on these is magnified and manifold by party propagandus and circulated in internet and print media. With a ready young indoctrinated chinese in universities on nationalism, it takes its own turn thru cell phones/emails/print media etc.
In chinese universities many students are monitored and their emails cannot be anonymous, has to be in their names. They cannot be critical of CCP or communism. Hence the students take to nationalism, also with rising economic prosperity it is a natural offshot with propagandu.
many a times the protestations on foreign embassies like japan US or others are a just a show of frustration by the chinese as they cannot do on their ruling CCP. This is known to foreign govts, hence relatively quiet action from them.
2) CCP are wary of international opinion particularly western ones(read USA). it is economically interwined with it. it kisses and quarrels with it. Many a time it manufactures internal protestations to take a tough stand with negotiations. It wants to be like uncle , has respect and understands its power
However internal security is paramount and it takes precedence over external threats. Reason being CCP is ruling for a long time. Once it loses power there is no second chance as in democracy.

Like pakis it is riding a tiger of a different kind-- on a potent mix of dangerous nationalism bordering on ethnicity, economic growth, stifling media/internet/propagandu and avoiding mass unrest- trying to diffuse it by small protests at local levels.

You're pretty much right, though I might have said things a bit differently. In essence, while the Chinese citizens may care about what the world thinks of them, what's paramount to the Chinese government is how its own citizens think about the CCP. For example, I've always pointed out the fallacy of the argument that the 2008 Olympics was China's attempt to show the world that it has arrived. That may be what the Chinese citizens wanted, but what the CCP wanted was to show the Chinese people what they have arrived.

Relevant to our discussion is the SCS issue. Many people pointed out how China's aggressive behaviors(and I'll freely admit that they've stepped up in agressiveness) are drawing international criticism and making the other parties of the dispute band together or seek foreign help. In essence, China seeks more power, and since power is a zero-sum game, any increase in Chinese power will come at the expense at someone else'. Now, nobody wants to lose power, so there will be resistance every step of the way. Thus, it can be logically concluded that the only way to avoid such resistance(bad press, Vietnam seeking American and Indian help, etc.) is to not to seek more power, which is unacceptable to the Chinese due to how much the safety of their economy is dependent on this power(control of the SCS in this case). Therefore, what's happening in the SCS is entirely unavoidable and no matter how many agreements or ASEAN meetings there are, frictions will continue and bad press will be abound.

As for Indian assistance to Vietnam, it'll be nothing more than a show for all parties involved even if it does happen, at least in the medium future. China already controls the Paracel islands, where the greatest contention between Vietnam and China occurs, so China has no reason to be aggressive there beyond cutting some cables and whatnot. As many have mentioned already, Vietnam won't be so foolish as to try to take the Paracel islands through force, so the chances of actual conflict there is essentially zero for even the long term future. The Spratlys are much more complex due to both the number of states involved and the current American interest in the region. I don't see the status quo changing much there either due primarily to the U.S. dominance in the region. In the medium-term future at least, nothing China or India does is going to matter, only what the Americans say and do will. I see the status quo holding there for at LEAST another 20 years.

[darshhan]

Even as Vietnam and China continue to conduct tit-for-tat naval maneuvers in the South China Sea, Hanoi has started making direct calls for foreign involvement in the two nations' maritime territorial dispute.

While many commentators saw this as a thinly veiled invitation to the United States, it could also be a precursor to India establishing a permanent presence in Vietnamese waters. India has apparently responded favorably to Vietnam's offer of permanent berthing rights in Na Thrang port. The move would not only add military heft to India's "Look East" policy, but is also emblematic of a larger Indian effort to counter China's activities in South Asia.

Since then the asymmetry in naval power between China and Vietnam has grown exponentially in the former's favor, while Hanoi has lost its Soviet-era security guarantees. Although Vietnam's decision to hold live naval drills in the wake of the cable-cutting incident in mid-June was seen as a show of resolve, it did little to temper ongoing Chinese surveys in disputed areas.

Clearly Vietnam requires a more credible naval power to intercede on its behalf to prevent the Chinese from upping the ante any further. That power could be India. In a move that had been in the offing for some time, India appears to have finally greenlighted long-term basing for it ships at Na Thrang, just south of China's new naval base at Sanya on Hainan Island.

The offer on Na Thrang was reiterated by the Vietnamese Chief of Naval Staff Vice Adm. Nguyen Van Hien on his recent visit to India. Nguyen visited two key Indian shipyards and conducted meetings on securing Indian help for augmenting the size and capabilities of the Vietnamese navy. While Indian public shipyards are actually at full capacity owing to domestic orders, newly established private shipyards will probably be awarded contracts to supply Vietnam with offshore patrol vessels and fast attack craft. In any case, India will continue to train Vietnamese naval personnel and help maintain any equipment that Vietnam sources from Russia. New Delhi has also agreed in principle to sell Vietnam the Brahmos supersonic anti-ship missile and possibly Prithvi surface-to-surface missiles.

Less visible, but no less critical, is the Indian IT industry's involvement in devising network-centric solutions for the Vietnamese armed forces. Criticized in the past for not putting enough heft in its Look East policy, the current tensions in the South China Sea have provided India an opportunity to display to Southeast Asia its willingness to help maintain the Asian balance of power.
A permanent presence in Na Thrang will essentially be the other bookend of India's efforts to counter a possible "third Chinese island chain" in the Indian and Pacific oceans.

Na Thrang would allow India to monitor the South China Sea side of the Straits of Malacca as well, effectively securing India's energy and commercial shipping originating in the Far East, while putting a greater swathe of China's sea lines of communication (SLOCs) within the Indian navy's reach.

The mantra in South Bloc at the moment seems to be that if the Indian Ocean is not India's ocean, then the South China Sea is not China's south sea.

Having interacted with many Vietnamese at work, I can attest to one thing- they share our dislike and suspicion of China thanks to them also being the victims of Chinese aggression. There can be no better ally for India in checking Chinese naval activity than Vietnam and India should offer to sell them whatever we can develop indigenously. This is the same policy that China has used against us by propping up Pakistan, offering them weapons at generous credit terms and it makes ample sense for us to do the same. Naval warships, fast attack crafts, submarines, torpedoes, sonars, radars, Brahmos, Barak, Prithvi-II, Prahaar, Pinaka, Arjun etc. should all be on the table for them. And help them in servicing and maintenance of Russian sourced weapons with permission from Russia.

Forming an informal alliance with Vietnam, South Korea and Japan to tie up China is the way to go and India needs to be very pro-active in this regard rather than waiting for them to approach us.

and some Agnis


alliance with phillipines, indonesia also

Rajrang ji, Agnis and prithvis are ok but Vitnam's security will only be ensured if we supply them nukes(thermonuclear will be better).This sole step will boost vietnam's security like nothing else especially when you you factor in that Vietnam is much closer to coastal China(shangai,shenjen etc) compared to India.

[jamwal]

It's already known to almost everyone that transferring nuclear weapons and missiles with 300 Km plus range is against international laws which Indian govt will never break. Then why posts wishing transfer or nookes, Agnee etc to Vietnam are still occupying bulk of discussion ? Please post something that is really feasible, not fantasies.

[darshhan]

It's already known to almost everyone that transferring nuclear weapons and missiles with 300 Km plus range is against international laws which Indian govt will never break. Then why posts wishing transfer or nookes, Agnee etc to Vietnam are still occupying bulk of discussion ? Please post something that is really feasible, not fantasies.

Jamwal ji , If we go by the conduct of present GoI then nothing is possible.We might as well disband BRF and go home.By the way will the international laws protect Vietnam if it is attacked by China.If not , then why not allow vietnam access to nukes.By the way I do not think that India is a signatory to any of these international laws(I can be wrong on this though).

[ShauryaT]

As for Indian assistance to Vietnam, it'll be nothing more than a show for all parties involved even if it does happen, at least in the medium future. China already controls the Paracel islands, where the greatest contention between Vietnam and China occurs, so China has no reason to be aggressive there beyond cutting some cables and whatnot. As many have mentioned already, Vietnam won't be so foolish as to try to take the Paracel islands through force, so the chances of actual conflict there is essentially zero for even the long term future. The Spratlys are much more complex due to both the number of states involved and the current American interest in the region. I don't see the status quo changing much there either due primarily to the U.S. dominance in the region. In the medium-term future at least, nothing China or India does is going to matter, only what the Americans say and do will. I see the status quo holding there for at LEAST another 20 years.

There is one view you do miss in all of this and that is of a reaction by other powers. Specifically in the Indian context, China's actions in TSP will come with a response from India, most likely in Vietnam. China's string of pearls will be responded to by India's own attempt at encirclement. China's forays in IOR will be met with India's forays in SCS and the Pacific. China's military build up will be responded to by India across the board. At this time, both China and India will build their capabilities, what may trigger its use at what point is anyone's guess. As long as the capabilities exist, the will to use them cannot be discarded. For every place China beats Indian oil companies, India will seek to beat China - even if in alliance with someone else. India is behind in manufacturing today but as it gets its act together she will seek to compete with China on this score and already does in some sectors, such as pharmaceuticals and automotive.

A long term competition with China is what the trajectory shows. The opportunity is for this competition to turn to co-opetition the threat is this would lead to friction. This is the challenge for the leaders of these two nations. In all of this, the vested interests of other powers have to be kept at bay.

[DavidD]

As for Indian assistance to Vietnam, it'll be nothing more than a show for all parties involved even if it does happen, at least in the medium future. China already controls the Paracel islands, where the greatest contention between Vietnam and China occurs, so China has no reason to be aggressive there beyond cutting some cables and whatnot. As many have mentioned already, Vietnam won't be so foolish as to try to take the Paracel islands through force, so the chances of actual conflict there is essentially zero for even the long term future. The Spratlys are much more complex due to both the number of states involved and the current American interest in the region. I don't see the status quo changing much there either due primarily to the U.S. dominance in the region. In the medium-term future at least, nothing China or India does is going to matter, only what the Americans say and do will. I see the status quo holding there for at LEAST another 20 years.

There is one view you do miss in all of this and that is of a reaction by other powers. Specifically in the Indian context, China's actions in TSP will come with a response from India, most likely in Vietnam. China's string of pearls will be responded to by India's own attempt at encirclement. China's forays in IOR will be met with India's forays in SCS and the Pacific. China's military build up will be responded to by India across the board. At this time, both China and India will build their capabilities, what may trigger its use at what point is anyone's guess. As long as the capabilities exist, the will to use them cannot be discarded. For every place China beats Indian oil companies, India will seek to beat China - even if in alliance with someone else. India is behind in manufacturing today but as it gets its act together she will seek to compete with China on this score and already does in some sectors, such as pharmaceuticals and automotive.

A long term competition with China is what the trajectory shows. The opportunity is for this competition to turn to co-opetition the threat is this would lead to friction. This is the challenge for the leaders of these two nations. In all of this, the vested interests of other powers have to be kept at bay.

There are a few differences between China's establishment of bases around India and India's doing so around China. First is the purpose of the "String of Pearls." China wants those bases as much for improving energy and commercial security as it does to encircle India. In fact, energy and commerce are probably a much greater concern at this point. You mentioned the importance of capability and intent, and China simply has more will than India right now because its economy is more dependent on this string of pearls than any possible Indian counterpart in the western Pacific. This may very well change in the future if India's economy becomes more tethered to those of eastern Asia nations and less to Europe/Americas/Middle East, but in the medium term future, China will have a big edge in the intent department. Note that I don't see conflict arising in the medium term future, so the importance of any of these potential bases is only prophylactic right now.

The second difference is the geopolitical situation in the western Pacific and in the seas surrounding India. Now, the U.S. is currently the predominant power in any ocean, but its naval power is more concentrated in the western Pacific than anywhere else in the world. As mentioned before, power is a zero-sum game. Aside from Vietnam where the Americans currently have no presence, an Indian push into the Western Pacific will mean a significant erosion of American power, and the Americans won't like that very much. In other words, Indian expansion of influence into the western Pacific will be met with not only China's resistance but America's as well. China's string of pearls, on the other hand, involve Pakistan, Burma, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, areas of traditional Indian influence, so the only resistance China will meet will be that of India's.

[sourab_c]

There are a few differences between China's establishment of bases around India and India's doing so around China. First is the purpose of the "String of Pearls." China wants those bases as much for improving energy and commercial security as it does to encircle India. In fact, energy and commerce are probably a much greater concern at this point. You mentioned the importance of capability and intent, and China simply has more will than India right now because its economy is more dependent on this string of pearls than any possible Indian counterpart in the western Pacific.

What "threats" does China currently face in the IOR region that would prompt China to invest so much capital in developing ports in other countries? While I do agree with your argument, I believe that the actual reason for China extending its influence in IOR is due to the intrinsic insecurity that is prevalent in the Chinese society. Years of brutal oppression has made them desperate for restoring their long lost "glory." They use this sense of victim hood to justify their action and it has also made them critical of anything and everything around them (exactly like TSP!). This is evident in the fact that they have one kind of a dispute or another with each and every foreign country that surrounds them (Pakistan being the only exception).

If security of shipping lanes is their real objective, peace with India is a much better investment than encircling it. I mean, how hard is it for a country to have good relations with India (and more specifically MMS)?

[chola]

This "String of Pearls" nonsense is a way of giving leverage to the lizard when they have none. I'm tire of this.

The tin cans of the chini navy could barely get out of the China Seas. Investing in commercial ports in insect nations like Bangladesh, Burma and Sri Lanka does not equate to naval presence. There is no PLA tin can within IN range. I have heard of not one encounter between chini and the IN like there are constantly between PRC navy and the USN or between them and the Japs, Vietnamese, Taiwanese, etc.

And that name "String of Pearls" we make to sound like it is some sort of grand alliance when you have nothing but ports for trawlers and container ships in pissant little nations. Why are we discussing this with the PRC drones like they actually have this leverage?

The actual "String of Pearls" is the one surrounding China by the US with real bases and real warships in first-rate nations like Japan and South Korea. Those bases and nation are pearls. The PRC is the one being strangled by a real power.

We on the other hand are "surrounded" by our imagination.

We continue to attribute these phantom strengths to the lizard and we make them a dragon in their eyes and, worse, in our own.

[Surya]

Any pearl in BD or SL will barely survive a couple of hrs into any war.

[Thomas Kolarek]

Since American economy is in shambles, and if at all pentagon cuts off its budget(who knows, it could happen), if India could make some arrangements and lease Diego Garcia, the paper pearls i.e, string of pearls can be easily shredded off right in the middle. I believe US maintains its long range stealth bombers there. But we need an strategists with a vision at the helm to negotiate such an deal.

[Arjunn]

Agree with you Chola ji in one respect. We should treat the lizard for the gecko it is and not attribute to it the qualities of a dragon. The lizard, assuming itself to be a dragon, is antagonizing countries left, right and center and opening strategic space for us in the south lizard sea.

We must ensure that Vietnam has strategic balance viz a viz china with respect to providing Vietnam and other friendly countries the capability to inflict massive unacceptable attrition to Chinese war assets in the event of open hostilities; thereby, ensuring that Chinese coercive domination of the region is checked. Weapons like Brahmos, Prithvi, Prahaar, Pinaka, fast attack crafts, missile boats, Akash batteries should all be given consideration.

Edited 1 time to add sentences.

[chola]

Indians always forget how badly the PRC is outgunned all around its periphery. These incessant cries of fear that we are "encircled" every time the lizard signs a commercial contract in the IOR gives China a weight it doesn't have.

Perception can become reality and there are people and nations who now believe that China already an Indian Ocean power when its tin can green water navy has never operated in the Indian Ocean. India helped create this windfall for the PRC by painting itself into an imaginary corner. Cornered by what? A commercial port in Sri Lanka? Some listening post in Burma? A still-born port in Gwaradar?

There is not a single confrontation between Chinese and Indian navies because the chini tin cans cannot operate more than a few miles from shore. There are however hundreds of confrontation off of China's coast because the US traps China in a naval vise.

I am all for selling weapons to Vietnam and the like provided that it is within framework of the US cordon of the lizard. Let's be truthful to ourselves, aside from Vietnam, every nation barricading the PRC has access to far greater technology from the US and in the case of Japan, Taiwan and SoKo locally than we can provide. Vietnam has no access to American arms yet because it is communist.

At any rate, the point is China is the one who is in the far weaker strategic position, who is really the one encircled and yet we are the one who acts like we are. Treat China as the trapped lizard it is and you will see its influence dissipate to the winds in the IOR. Cry about the "String of Pearls" and commercial ports in pissant nations like Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka suddenly assume the role and influence of "naval bases" without the PRC being even capable of sending warships there.

[Tumba]

Indians always forget how badly the PRC is outgunned all around its periphery. These incessant cries of fear that we are "encircled" every time the lizard signs a commercial contract in the IOR gives China a weight it doesn't have.

Perception can become reality and there are people and nations who now believe that China already an Indian Ocean power when its tin can green water navy has never operated in the Indian Ocean. India helped create this windfall for the PRC by painting itself into an imaginary corner. Cornered by what? A commercial port in Sri Lanka? Some listening post in Burma? A still-born port in Gwaradar?

There is not a single confrontation between Chinese and Indian navies because the chini tin cans cannot operate more than a few miles from shore. There are however hundreds of confrontation off of China's coast because the US traps China in a naval vise.

I am all for selling weapons to Vietnam and the like provided that it is within framework of the US cordon of the lizard. Let's be truthful to ourselves, aside from Vietnam, every nation barricading the PRC has access to far greater technology from the US and in the case of Japan, Taiwan and SoKo locally than we can provide. Vietnam has no access to American arms yet because it is communist.

At any rate, the point is China is the one who is in the far weaker strategic position, who is really the one encircled and yet we are the one who acts like we are. Treat China as the trapped lizard it is and you will see its influence dissipate to the winds in the IOR. Cry about the "String of Pearls" and commercial ports in pissant nations like Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka suddenly assume the role and influence of "naval bases" without the PRC being even capable of sending warships there.

...

a single obsolete rocket fired from these ports of these insect countries from a single obsolete tin can of Chinese navy can cause huge resources to be pulled from active battlefield zones to look after the new hidden threats from these so called commercial ports that Chinese started to expand in early 21st century, making complex changes in strategies of our armed forces, we can not overlook these developments.

to neutralized these threat we should make a similar commercial investments into these insect nations and go one step ahead and play the same game in Vietnam, Taiwan, south Korea and Philippines and in every nation Chinese are investing, we should follow there lead, use the road made by Chinese, make Chinese think the same.

In event of war a single active unit re deployed by Chinese to look after a can arise/ hidden threat is a one less active target in battle zone for our armed forces.

[DavidD]

There are a few differences between China's establishment of bases around India and India's doing so around China. First is the purpose of the "String of Pearls." China wants those bases as much for improving energy and commercial security as it does to encircle India. In fact, energy and commerce are probably a much greater concern at this point. You mentioned the importance of capability and intent, and China simply has more will than India right now because its economy is more dependent on this string of pearls than any possible Indian counterpart in the western Pacific.

What "threats" does China currently face in the IOR region that would prompt China to invest so much capital in developing ports in other countries? While I do agree with your argument, I believe that the actual reason for China extending its influence in IOR is due to the intrinsic insecurity that is prevalent in the Chinese society. Years of brutal oppression has made them desperate for restoring their long lost "glory." They use this sense of victim hood to justify their action and it has also made them critical of anything and everything around them (exactly like TSP!). This is evident in the fact that they have one kind of a dispute or another with each and every foreign country that surrounds them (Pakistan being the only exception).

If security of shipping lanes is their real objective, peace with India is a much better investment than encircling it. I mean, how hard is it for a country to have good relations with India (and more specifically MMS)?

How long do you think it would take to fully establish this string of pearls? 10 years? 20 years? Longer? It would be the most short-sighted to start developing it when a threat is already present against roughly half of your entire nation's commerce. Now, the actual stationing of warships in those ports right now is both unnecessary and threatening, which is why I do not believe that the Chinese government will do that any time soon. However, they will continue to foster relationships with the nations who own those ports and develop the infrastructure so that if the need so arises, warships may be stationed and operated from there within say 2-3 years.

As for the sense of victimhood, it's easy for you Indians to scoff at it when India has not been victimized as China has in modern history. When was the last time a foreign invader massacred 200,000+ Indian citizens in one city in a matter of weeks? Then again, in order to have a sense of victimhood, you need to feel a sense of nationhood first. You need to be able to feel the shame and pain of unrelated men and women from a time long past because you identify with them solely because they are your countrymen. You need to resist foreign occupation not necessarily because it makes your lives worse, but for the simple fact that they're impinging on your nation's sovereignty. That, unfortunately, is something that India in general does not possess.

With that said, I'll have to admit that those on this board have as strong a sense of nationhood as any I've seen, there just aren't enough of you to significantly influence your leaders.

[manum]

How long do you think it would take to fully establish this string of pearls? 10 years? 20 years? Longer? It would be the most short-sighted to start developing it when a threat is already present against roughly half of your entire nation's commerce. Now, the actual stationing of warships in those ports right now is both unnecessary and threatening, which is why I do not believe that the Chinese government will do that any time soon. However, they will continue to foster relationships with the nations who own those ports and develop the infrastructure so that if the need so arises, warships may be stationed and operated from there within say 2-3 years.

As for the sense of victimhood, it's easy for you Indians to scoff at it when India has not been victimized as China has in modern history. When was the last time a foreign invader massacred 200,000+ Indian citizens in one city in a matter of weeks? Then again, in order to have a sense of victimhood, you need to feel a sense of nationhood first. You need to be able to feel the shame and pain of unrelated men and women from a time long past because you identify with them solely because they are your countrymen. You need to resist foreign occupation not necessarily because it makes your lives worse, but for the simple fact that they're impinging on your nation's sovereignty. That, unfortunately, is something that India in general does not possess.

With that said, I'll have to admit that those on this board have as strong a sense of nationhood as any I've seen, there just aren't enough of you to significantly influence your leaders.

boss, We are not interested in your sense of being victim...stop crying crocodile tears. Chinese have pretty distorted notion of what is justifiable, so lets leave it that...I am not entering into Chinese past, which you are so ashamed of that, your own nation has replaced it with western civilization...

So since invaders killed millions of you, in kungfu times...what you going to do take revenge, when everything has change, what happened in past gone irrelevant...In that case Indians will have to go search for Mughals...and keep a constant grudge against British....

are you out of your mind? or this is how normal chinese think?

and ya good luck with your sense of nationhood, and words of wisdom...Now I know what happens when a fool speaks who was silent for long time...David you better talk about Chinese ships and planes than entering into big bang theory where few chinese were killed...

[ShauryaT]

DavidD: What you have written is not out of line, IMO. I may have some minor quibbles but overall do not disagree that India has some ways to go to build this nation-state, which is a work in progress. While things have changed and are changing in the right direction (for India), it would be fair to say, India has a long way to go and learn how to protect her core interests.

Just remember, this young nation, with old roots is learning fast and will react. For China's string of pearls, India has some tremendous assets that she cultivates for use when the need arises in 10-20-30 years. Tibet, Tajikistan (Farkhor, Aini), Mongolia, Vietnam (Cam Ranh).

This does not include co-operation with Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan, Singapore (SIMBEX), Australia and even the US (RIMPAC).

There are other things India is doing across the military, diplomatic and economic areas, which will be OT here. Be assured, India will compete in every area with the PRC and it will not get a free pass.

[ashi]

You would be a fool if you think you can talk politics in here and change other people's opinion.
Let's get back to military and watch a J-10 dog fight short clip, shall we? I just love this bird.

[chackojoseph]

Just another 4 gen a/c moving out of hangar, flying, average maneuvers, land and commie talk. IMO, even 3rd gen M2K's look more awesome in videos and the hair raising maneuvers.

[rajrang]

It's already known to almost everyone that transferring nuclear weapons and missiles with 300 Km plus range is against international laws which Indian govt will never break. Then why posts wishing transfer or nookes, Agnee etc to Vietnam are still occupying bulk of discussion ? Please post something that is really feasible, not fantasies.

Jamwal ji , If we go by the conduct of present GoI then nothing is possible.We might as well disband BRF and go home.By the way will the international laws protect Vietnam if it is attacked by China.If not , then why not allow vietnam access to nukes.By the way I do not think that India is a signatory to any of these international laws(I can be wrong on this though).

I wonder when the international law barring transfers of missiles above 300 km came into vogue? I recall in the 80s Cnina transferred missiles more than 1000 km to Saudi Arabia.

Without China, TSP would not have the conventional, nuclear or missile strengths that it has today. Without China's role, TSP would have been militarily much weaker. Then, India could even have contemplated a surgical strike to eliminate nuclear weapons in TSP at an early stage. China has facilitated this knowing fully well that there is a high probability that at some point in the future a fundamentalist government could be in power in TSP and severly complicate Indian security. All this to stop India from challenging China's dreams of becoming a global power. This cold, calculated thinking has to be paid back in kind.

One cannot hold TSP accountable - it is like expecting sane bahavior from a lunatic. But China is rational. Their "taller than, deeper than, longer than etc." friendship is one thing, but facilitating missile and nuclear strengths in a lunatic is a grave provocation. That is why China is much worse than TSP.

[rsharma]

Dear DavidD,
Just what is the point you are trying to prove on this forum.. essentially, one that represents the pinnacle of Indian Nationalism..
Let's face it.. China is not India.. and India is not China.. for better or for worse..
Your rhetoric is wasted on this very forum, kindly take your sense of victim hood to sino-defense forums..

[Tumba]

Just another 4 gen a/c moving out of hangar, flying, average maneuvers, land and commie talk. IMO, even 3rd gen M2K's look more awesome in videos and the hair raising maneuvers.

well still one less AAM/SAM from the inventory for every panda Jugnu-10.

[hnair]

ooh.... fun

You would be a fool if you think you can talk politics in here and change other people's opinion.
Let's get back to military and watch a J-10 dog fight short clip, shall we? I just love this bird.

droll video.

1) at 00:42, I felt like hugging that gent and saying "everything will be allright".
2) 1:27, the guy in front seat read the "Rajani maneuver" and flipped the tinted helmet visor on cue. Very hao-hao of him, although his looking upward non-chalantly after the flipping open was a bit hammish. Was he looking for a spider web? But his WSO chap seems to have not listened to the video's director-saar carefully and already had it open. Very bu-hao
3) I love chicken tandoori and hence love this bird too.

Pakis are bad. They make fun of China's elderly pilots and their lack of energy in air. We dont do that

[ramana]

LINK

China ties up with Ukraine to nullify India’s edge
Ajay Banerjee
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, August 7
In order to match India, China will acquire top-of-the-line heavy airlift capabilities to move tanks, machines and troops at a short notice to remote and inaccessible areas.

Just two weeks ago, India signed a $4.1 billion deal with the US for the purchase of 10 heavy-lift aircraft - the C-17 Globemaster-III that can carry troops and equipment as varied as tanks, choppers and artillery guns in its belly to airdrop these.

Indian intelligence and security agencies have informed the government that China, in partnership with Ukraine, has almost developed a plane to match India.

Ukraine, a former USSR republic, has expertise in military aircraft. China has code-named it Y-20. Its carrying capacity will be a shade lower that the 77-tonne load-carrying capability of the C-17. However, it will be significantly higher than that the Soviet-origin IL-76’s capacity of 45 tonnes, the security agencies have informed in their report.

The Chinese challenger to the Indian Air Force is expected to take to the skies early next year, around the time of the 18th meeting of the Chinese Communist Party.

According to Indian estimates, China operates some 14 heavy lift IL-76 aircraft that includes the five that have been converted into Airborne Early Warning Systems (AWACS) - fitted with radars to pick out intruders. The Indian Air Force operates the IL-76 in the Himalayan region.

The new acquisition of the strategic C-17 would have titled the balance in India’s favour. “But China’s new military plane will significantly improve its heavy airlift capacity, especially in the Tibetan Plateau region where it has five airfields, for quick deployment of troops and equipment,” said a senior functionary.

Since the Chinese will be the co-producers, the move gives them an edge over India in terms of production capacity and technical knowhow. But India will have to either go back to the US or to Russia for the next lot of heavy-lift aircraft.

China’s choice of partnering Ukraine has not surprised observers as the former USSR republic was a key aircraft hub. Till date, Ukraine services AN-32 transport planes for other countries and even produces the MI-17 choppers - another Soviet era machine that has seen several upgrades.

In the past, Ukraine had sold a sea-borne aircraft carrier ‘Varyag’ to the Chinese who re-fitted it and re-named it ‘Shi Lang’. The ship underwent sea trials this year.

Ukraine has separately won a $400 million contract from Indian Air Force to upgrade 105 AN-32 in its fleet.

Airlifting capability

- India signed a $4.1 billion deal with the US for the purchase of 10 heavy lift-aircraft - the C-17 Globemaster-III
that can carry troops and equipment as varied as tanks, choppers and artillery guns in its belly to airdrop these
- India will have to either go back to the US or to Russia for the next lot of heavy lift-aircraft
- China has code-named its aircraft Y-20. Its carrying capacity will be a shade lower that the 77-tonne load-carrying capability of the C-17. However, it will be significantly higher than that the Soviet-origin IL-76’s capacity of 45 tonnes
Since the Chinese will be the co-producers, this moves gives them an edge over India in terms of production

[svinayak]

^^^ Neither did I see a dog nor a fight. Looks more like Party Propaganda of the new tallel than mountains and deepel than ocheans supel powel !!!

The pilot is cringing after this WVR tight dog fight!

[Victor]

How long do you think it would take to fully establish this string of pearls? 10 years? 20 years?

The very fact that china finds it necessary to go to so much trouble is acknowledgement of India's capacity to cut off oil supplies to China at will via multiple choke points: Bay of Bengal, Malacca Straits, Arabian Sea and PoK. It will only get worse for china going forward and you can call it the Ring of Fire if you like fanciful, clever-sounding names. Nothing chinese--oil or anything else--can pass through it without being at risk throughout the entire route. China does not have a similar capability against India and never will. But by throwing its weight around in India's neighborhood, it has given India an opportunity to 'return the favor' in the South China Sea, much to china's detriment. Of the hostile countries that surround China that are friendly with India, Vietnam is the most interesting at moment for the potential disruption it represents. Go ahead, make our day.

[ashi]

J-20, J-10B, JF-17 in a busy day