China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

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yantra
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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby yantra » 19 Aug 2011 22:14

New Chinese stealth jet starts talk of Russian help
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-stealth-j ... 41615.html

Similarities between a new Chinese fighter jet and a prototype Russian plane have brought suggestions that Moscow may be quietly helping Beijing compete with the world's military powers.

Experts say the fifth-generation J-20 fighter, which made its maiden flight in January during a visit of the U.S. defense secretary, could have its origins in the Mikoyan 1.44 stealth jet that never made it to the production line.
....
Rival designer Sukhoi was eventually contracted to help build the fighter and the Mikoyan 1.44, which lacks the radar-evading engineering of the U.S. F-22, was passed over.
...


Well, well, well.. here we go again. Thought this was very old news..

Christopher Sidor
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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Christopher Sidor » 20 Aug 2011 13:26

yantra wrote:New Chinese stealth jet starts talk of Russian help
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-stealth-j ... 41615.html

Similarities between a new Chinese fighter jet and a prototype Russian plane have brought suggestions that Moscow may be quietly helping Beijing compete with the world's military powers.

Experts say the fifth-generation J-20 fighter, which made its maiden flight in January during a visit of the U.S. defense secretary, could have its origins in the Mikoyan 1.44 stealth jet that never made it to the production line.
....
Rival designer Sukhoi was eventually contracted to help build the fighter and the Mikoyan 1.44, which lacks the radar-evading engineering of the U.S. F-22, was passed over.
...


Well, well, well.. here we go again. Thought this was very old news..


In one of the lines above the article says "its[J-20] origins in the Mikoyan 1.44 stealth jet" and just below it says "Mikoyan 1.44 which lacks the radar-evading engineering of US F-22." Off course US will not share the crucial technologies of F-22 including its stealth and sensor integration. So is this article saying that Mikyoan 1.44 does not have stealth capability or is it saying that Mikyoan 1.44 is not "stealthy" enough compared to F-22 ?

Further I was under the impression that Mikyoan 1.42/1.44 design was dropped due to cost constraints not due to some technical deficiencies.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Austin » 20 Aug 2011 16:12

Christopher Sidor wrote:Further I was under the impression that Mikyoan 1.42/1.44 design was dropped due to cost constraints not due to some technical deficiencies.


The Mig-1.42 never saw the light of the day , the one which did flew was the prototype Mig-1.44 that was suppose to validate the aerodynamics ,engine and many other features of Soviet 5th Gen fighter which would feed into the definitive Mig-1.42.

Stealth was not really a prime objective or the silver bullet of Soviet fighter design , they relied more on super maneuverability ,TVC, persistance , heavy jamming ,LO and weapons to compliment their fighters , compared to US designers that gave priority to passive stealth approach like F-22. Just two different approaches to solve their own problems.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Ashutosh Malik » 23 Aug 2011 10:19

Ravi Rikhye in www.orbat.com

"India to raise new strike corps against China? Hindustan Times says so, and identifies the corps HQ as Panagarh, West Bengal. It further says 23 Division (Ranchi) will go under the corps.

Our South Asia correspondent Mandeep Singh Bajwa says that while there are many plans, including a strike corps for Eastern command, its too early to take this as a done deal. And the Indian press is notorious for getting things wrong on defense.

Meanwhile, Mandeep says plans for a number of new China front independent brigades are proceeding. These include an armored brigade for Ladakh, a infantry brigade for Ladakh, a mountain brigade for the middle sector, a light armored brigade for Sikkim, and possibly a fifth brigade.

We've made this point before: China is a sovereign nation and if it wants to throw its weight around against India, that's right. But what exactly has China gained by its super-aggressive posture. we're already looking at two new divisions raised for Eastern Command, two under raising for Northern Command, two more planned for a strike corps for Eastern, plus 4-5 independent brigades. and this is just the start, by the way.

With Indian forces facing China already increasing by 75% compared to the low point in the 1990s and 2000s, when India thought it had a deal to start demilitarizing the Tibet border, what precisely does Beijing think it has gained? We'd love to know.

And the interesting point is that while India is responding to Chinese aggressiveness, this buildup is NOT defensive. Its intended, for the first time in half-a-century, to give India a solid offensive posture against China. This is because India has concluded the only thing China understands is the big stick.

So for no reason at all except false ago, China has created a problem for itself along its Southwest border where between 1970-2000 tensions were reducing. The Chinese government may think it is being cunningly clever with regard to India. Its being astonishingly foolish.

Also, BTW, India's GDP devoted to defense remains at 2% despite massive increases in the last five years. India has lots of room to spend much more on defense."

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby rajrang » 23 Aug 2011 10:44

Ashutosh Malik wrote:Ravi Rikhye in http://www.orbat.com

Also, BTW, India's GDP devoted to defense remains at 2% despite massive increases in the last five years. India has lots of room to spend much more on defense."


If India's economy continues to grow at the current rate of 8.5%, over the next 20 years it will increase 5-fold in real terms - the Indian GDP in PPP terms will equal that of the US of today! In addition if India decides to grow its defense spending to 4% of GDP during this period from the present 2%, then the Indian defense expenditure will be 10 times greater than today - in real terms, i.e. in today's ruppees. (Inflation will only make it seem even bigger.) This will mean India's defense expenditure which is around $ 40 billion can grow to $ 400 billion (today's dollars). Compare this with the $ 700 billion of the US $ 100 billion of PRC today. I agree that PRC will be foolish to create problems with India.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby rohitvats » 23 Aug 2011 23:58

While searching for some stuff, I came across this 1963 CIA document titled THE SECURITY OF INDIA'S HIMALAYAN FRONTIER..

This is a de-classified document; please read it here:
http://www.faqs.org/cia/docs/82/0000254391/THE-SECURITY-OF-INDIA'S-HIMALAYAN-FRONTIER.html

Link to the original document can also be seen at the bottom of the page.

Just check the level of analysis. I'm yet to see a single book which covers the topics given in the document in such detail.

Please read it to understand the geography in the region where India and China may well face each other. While a lot has changed since 1963, the geography has remained the same and all the efforts are to over come this single most important aspect. Read all the news about infra development in Tibet and India in the context given in the document linked above.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby nits » 25 Aug 2011 10:19

US warns China expanding its maritime power

US commanders worry that China's advances could jeopardize America's longstanding military dominance in the Pacific while US officials have accused Beijing of aggressive tactics against neighboring countries over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. An expanded Chinese naval presence in the region, including warships, submarines, missiles and possible aircraft carriers, would have "implications for regional rivalries and power dynamics," Michael Schiffer, deputy assistant secretary of secretary of defense, told reporters.

Chinese leaders have insisted its modernization program is aimed solely at "self-defense" and accused US officials of trying to portray the armed forces as a threat. The report said China had sought to strengthen its nuclear forces by adding more "road-mobile" ballistic missiles and by stressing "camouflage" tactics to ensure the atomic arsenal could better survive a potential attack, the report said.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby nits » 25 Aug 2011 10:25

India develops cold feet on talks with Japan, US

Worried about China's reaction, India is developing cold feet on a new outreach dialogue with Japan and the US. Though Beijing hasn't yet registered any official objection to the dialogue, Indian rethink is more in the nature of preempting a Chinese reaction.

In April, India had, at the instance of Japan, announced a new dialogue on "regional and global issues of shared interests" among New Delhi, Tokyo and Washington. The dialogue would cover hot-button issues of South China Sea and other matters in Asia-Pacific, all of which are important for India. The new trilateral talks were announced by former foreign secretary Nirupama Rao in Tokyo. The first "trialogue" was supposed to coincide with the new ministerial-level economic dialogue - also between Japan and India - slated for early October.


I really don't understand why we show so much concern and give so much importance to them... when they don't give a damn while helping TSP with all there might... its time we shed this Indian culture "ki arey usey bura lag jayega to?" and starts talking to China in there own Language... Its time our Babus shows sume guts...

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Ravishankar » 25 Aug 2011 13:17

China deploys advanced CSS-5 MRBMs on Indian border: US

http://ibnlive.in.com/generalnewsfeed/n ... 00220.html

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby VinodTK » 26 Aug 2011 05:39

Pentagon warns India of Chinese build-up
NEW DELHI: The Red Dragon is spreading its wings and sharpening its claws at a rapid clip. From deadly long-range nuclear missiles and an expanding blue-water Navy to potent space and cyber warfare abilities, China will have a "modern" military capable of prolonged high-intensity combat operations by the end of this decade.

Pentagon's latest assessment of the expanding military might of China, released on Thursday, paints a scary picture of the frenetic pace at which the 2.25-million People's Liberation Army (PLA) is being modernized, in the backdrop of uncertainty over its long-term intentions.

Though the US report holds that thwarting any American intervention in Taiwan remains PLA's "main strategic direction", New Delhi can ill-afford to ignore China's increasing trans-border military capabilities, its assiduous strategic encircling of India and hardening posture in the border talks.

The report itself notes PLA has replaced its older liquid-fuelled, nuclear-capable CSS-2 intermediate range ballistic missiles with the "more advanced" solid-fuelled CSS-5 medium-range ballistic missile systems along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) to "strengthen its deterrent posture" against India.

"A high level of mistrust continues to strain the bilateral relationship...India remains concerned over China's close military relationship with Pakistan and Beijing's growing footprint in the Indian Ocean, Central Asia and Africa," says the report.

All this might not startle the Indian defence establishment, which also keeps a close tab on PLA, but the fact remains that China can now move over 30 divisions (each with over 15,000 soldiers) to the LAC within a month to outnumber Indian forces by at least three-is-to-one due to the huge military infrastructure build-up in Tibet.

India has taken some steps in recent years to counter China, which range from planning a new mountain strike corps (over 35,000 combat troops) in 2012-2017 after raising two new divisions (over 15,000 soldiers each) in Nagaland and Assam to deploying Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, missile batteries and spy drones in the North-East, as reported by TOI earlier.


But a lot more clearly needs to be done. China, after all, is fast steaming ahead with its projects to build its first stealth fighter, the J-20, and multiple aircraft carriers after its first, the 67,500-tonne Varyag acquired surreptitiously from Ukraine, began sea trials recently.

Moreover, China has a hyper-active ballistic and cruise missile programme to add to its already huge nuclear arsenal. They include missiles like the DF-21D ballistic missile to kill aircraft carriers or large ships over 1,500-km away, the road-mobile DF-31A capable of hitting targets 11,200-km away, and the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile with a reach beyond 7,200-km. "China's nuclear arsenal currently consists of 55-65 ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles), apart from (5-20) IRBMs, (75-100) MRBMs and (1,000-1,200) SRBMs," says the Pentagon report.

China, of course, also helps Pakistan to boost its military capabilities, with the clear intention to bog down India in South Asia. Pakistan remains China's primary customer for weapons, with sales ranging from JF-17 and F-7 fighters, F-22P frigates and early warning and control aircraft, tanks and missiles, says the report.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby NRao » 26 Aug 2011 07:25

On one hand there is this claim of getting cold feet. On the other hand the fact remains that India is raising a strike corps along the Chinese border.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby D Roy » 26 Aug 2011 07:30

On the other hand the fact remains that India is raising a strike corps along the Chinese border.



OR ......
Huge-expenditure-for-China-border-military-modernization-questioned

with the government raising questions about the high capital expenditure involved in it.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby NRao » 26 Aug 2011 07:50

Ah.

Guess that was bound to happen.

China uses eons to build, India sleeps, then MoD wakes up to a huge bill.


Well, such is life.

Wait till the next Kargil - this time on the border with China, and, then pay a bigger bill.

However, I am impressed with the Chinese capabilities. Bet that itself is a downer for India, enough to do nothing.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby SaiK » 26 Aug 2011 08:38

India has to finish off pakistan or china for all such adventures.. launch 100x200 petal walas in one stroke. Problem solved. Now, let us worry about building that NFU strike force.

Kargil types, we will have consider all missile launch as first strike.. and against a nuclear armed attack, it shall be always mad. The threat can't be taken at babu speak value.

China knows it does not want skirmishes with India.. and a dual prong attack on India, will cause injury to the tiger, and that is bad for these nations.

The economic loss for China would be $1Trillion per day, starting from US treasury bonds... cause, they can't produce those made in china's any more.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby rohitvats » 26 Aug 2011 09:51

^^^That 12,000 Crores figure for the two (I) Infantry Bdes and a MSC with 2 Divisions is indeed high. It seems, IA is going for gold plated stuff. Something like M777+airborned elements et all.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby D Roy » 26 Aug 2011 09:59

oh wait, how much did India just spend on 12 VVIP helicopters :

560 millions euros urf 3640 crores.

But of course when it comes to the much needed MSC which must have integral helo assets, organic firepower -- bawahahaha too expensive.

people forget that a lot of money will also have to be spent to help these MSCs attain information and electronic dominance.

while much is written here about overall orbats very little is said about the electronic orbat, because so little of the same is out in the public domain. but its expensive nevertheless.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby zlin » 26 Aug 2011 12:06

Last edited by Rahul M on 28 Aug 2011 17:53, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: do not bother posting fanboy images.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Humorix » 26 Aug 2011 12:40

zlin wrote:WZ10 8)


This looks like CG fan art.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby siddharth » 26 Aug 2011 18:47

Humorix wrote:
zlin wrote:WZ10 8)


This looks like CG fan art.

Yeah, looks like its made of plastic....a RC model maybe?????? Also, the pilots seem to lack basic human features (no lips!!!). The size of the craft is a bit doubtful when compared with the foliage in the background. Seems to be flying in a garden :lol:

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Kanson » 26 Aug 2011 18:53

It clearly shows, wheels are out of place.....copied from video games?

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Philip » 26 Aug 2011 18:58

China rises: US warns Beijing is expanding its military power
China is pouring money into aircraft carriers, missiles, cyber warfare and "space dominance", a US Pentagon report has claimed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... power.html

The report estimated that China spent US$160billion (£98billion) on its armed forces and other military-related projects in 2010. That is nearly double its officially declared defence budget - but still far short of the US$700billion spent by America on its forces over the same period.

Examining the readiness of China's new weapons, the report said that China's carrier program would not be operational until 2015 at the earliest, while its Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter would not be ready until 2018.

Of more immediate impact to US forces in the Pacific is the Dong Feng, or "East Wind", DF-21D carrier-killing ballistic missile which the report estimates is already in the early stages of being operational.

Despite China's repeated assurances that it plans a "peaceful rise", the US and many regional powers are openly expressing concerns about China's military build-up and questioning why China feel it necessary to develop offensive weapons capabilities.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Gerard » 27 Aug 2011 04:43

ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2011

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/2011_CMPR_Final.pdf

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Don » 27 Aug 2011 07:48

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/ ... TY20110824

China on track for modern military by 2020: Pentagon

By Phil Stewart and Paul Eckert

WASHINGTON | Wed Aug 24, 2011 6:17pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China appears on track to forge a modern military by 2020, a rapid buildup that could be potentially destabilizing to the Asia-Pacific region, the Pentagon said on Wednesday.

Fueled by its booming economy, China's military growth in the past decade has exceeded most U.S. forecasts. Its aircraft carrier program, cyber warfare capabilities and anti-satellite missiles have alarmed neighbors and Washington.

Some China watchers, including members of Congress, note with apprehension that rising Chinese defense spending coincides with Washington's plans for defense cuts.

"China clearly believes that it can capitalize on the global financial crisis," said Representative Howard McKeon, adding the U.S. military presence in the Pacific must not be sacrificed in an attempt to control U.S. spending.

The Defense Department's annual assessment to Congress on the Chinese military flagged all the major concerns about China's growing military might, including Beijing's widening edge over Taiwan. It also noted cyber attacks in 2010 -- including those on U.S. government computers -- that appear to have originated in China.

"We have some concerns (on cyber) about some of the things that we've seen. And we want to be able to work through that with China," said Michael Schiffer, a deputy assistant secretary of defense.

The report focused on 2010, a year when the Pentagon said China's military modernization program paid "visible dividends." It cited China's fielding of an operational anti-ship ballistic missile, continued work on its aircraft carrier program and the completion of a prototype of China's first stealth fighter jet, the J-20.

The J-20 program, the Pentagon report said, would not achieve "effective operational capability" prior to 2018.

"Despite continued gaps in some key areas, large quantities of antiquated hardware and a lack of operational experience, the PLA (China's People's Liberation Army) is steadily closing the technological gap with modern armed forces," the report said.

Officials at China's embassy could not be immediately reached for comment.

DESTABILIZING EFFECT?

The military buildup could have a destabilizing effect on the region, Schiffer said, calling for greater openness by the People's Liberation Army and more bilateral military dialogue.

"The pace and scope of China's sustained military investments have allowed China to pursue capabilities that we believe are potentially destabilizing to regional military balances," Schiffer said.

The Pentagon said despite its progress at becoming a more potent regional military power, Beijing was not expected to be able to project and sustain large forces in high-intensity combat operations far from China before 2020.

That is something the United States, still the predominant military power in the Pacific, has been able to do throughout the world for decades.

One of the best ways for a military to project power is with aircraft carriers and China launched its first carrier -- a refitted former Soviet craft -- for a maiden run earlier this month. Schiffer said he believed Beijing was working toward building its own domestically produced aircraft carriers and sources told Reuters China was building two carriers.

Still, the report said any domestically produced Chinese aircraft carrier would not be operational until at least 2015, if construction were to start this year.

"Whether or not this (China's carrier program) proves to be a net plus for the region or for the globe or proves to be something that has destabilizing effects and raises blood pressure in various regional capitals I think remains to be seen," Schiffer said.

One of the biggest irritants in Sino-U.S. ties is Taiwan. The PLA suspended military ties with the United States for most of 2010 over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and warned that a renewed flurry of engagement could again be jeopardized by new arms sales to an island China sees as a renegade province.

Schiffer said the U.S. government has not yet made a decision on any new arms sales to Taiwan, comments echoed at the State Department.

A Reuters report this month said the U.S. sale of 66 new Lockheed Martin F-16 C/D fighter jets to Taiwan appeared unlikely.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Don » 27 Aug 2011 09:09

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... tagon.html

China’s J-20 to be effective capability by 2018 - Pentagon

By Greg Waldron

A Pentagon report has highlighted major advances by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), with specific mention of the developmental Chengdu J-20 aircraft.

Washington believes the J-20 could achieve an "effective operational capability" by 2018, and suggests the aircraft's role is as not a fighter, but rather a long-range attack platform. It says engine technology is the main challenge China will face in developing the J-20.

The US Department of Defense's annual report to Congress, entitled "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China," covers all aspects of China's defence modernisation.

"The J-20 will eventually give the People's Liberation Army Air Force a platform capable of long-range, penetrating strikes into complex air defense environments," said the report.

There has been debate in defence circles as to the exact role of the J-20. Some have speculated that it is intended as a direct rival to the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighter. Another popular theory indicates that it is designed specially for long-range attacks against American aircraft carriers and other targets.

One table in the report underlined the speed and scale of PLAAF modernisation over the last decade.

In 2000, around 2% of its platforms were considered modern, whereas today the number is 25%, with the force being filled out with types such as the Sukhoi Su-27 and Su-30, as well as the Chengdu J-10.

The report indicated that most of China's modernisation efforts are aimed squarely at being able to prevail in a conflict over Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway province.

China has a total of 1,680 fighter aircraft, of which 330 are stationed within range of Taiwan, where they are opposed by Taiwan's fighter fleet of just 388 aircraft. As for bombers and attack aircraft, 160 are within range of Taiwan, out of a total of 620.

"Currently, 490 aircraft could conduct combat operations against Taiwan without refueling," said the report. "This number could be significantly increased through any combination of aircraft forward deployment, decreased ordnance loads or altered mission profiles."

A war over Taiwan could draw in the USA. Recognising this, China has developed new capabilities tailored for an "anti-access" strategy, aimed at delaying or preventing American intervention.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Austin » 27 Aug 2011 11:10

MiG denies stealth technology transfer to China for J-20 fighter

Russia has never transferred any stealth technology to China to assist it with its J-20 Black Eagle fifth-generation stealth fighter prototype, Russian plane maker MiG said on Friday.

"We are not delivering any equipment to China, and never have," MiG spokeswoman Yelena Fyodorova said.

MiG's statement follows claims in the Russian and foreign press last week that China's J-20, unveiled over six months ago, is based on technology and components from the Russian Mikoyan Article 1.44, a stealth technology demonstrator aircraft, development of which was suspended.

Some analysts say the aircraft have close similarities.

"The back end of the J-20 looks awfully like the 1.44, as does the overall layout with delta canards," said Douglas Barrie, an air warfare specialist at the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies.

"If it's a coincidence, it's a striking one. Russia may have provided technical support, but there is nothing substantial to prove that. China has however relied on Russia for much of its defense procurement for a decade and a half," he added.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby DavidD » 27 Aug 2011 13:59

Humorix wrote:
zlin wrote:WZ10 8)


This looks like CG fan art.


Probably because it IS CG fan art. Can a mod edit his post and take down the pic? It's not only just a CG but it's also stretching my screen.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby DavidD » 27 Aug 2011 14:22

NRao wrote:Ah.

Guess that was bound to happen.

China uses eons to build, India sleeps, then MoD wakes up to a huge bill.


Well, such is life.

Wait till the next Kargil - this time on the border with China, and, then pay a bigger bill.

However, I am impressed with the Chinese capabilities. Bet that itself is a downer for India, enough to do nothing.


This is really a non-issue. I don't really get why the Indians are always afraid of some sort of massive attack from China. I mean, let's look at this "possibility" in a fundamental manner.

First, when was the last time either country engaged in a REAL war with the other? I'm not talking about short clashes like '62, but a real war with the aim of total subjugation of the other country, like the Muslims did to India or the Mongols did to China. Never. Why? Well, all military moves have to be analyzed through the prism of capability and intention, so let's look at these two things. First, there have never been nor will there be in the foreseeable future for either nation to sustain any sort of meaningful military endeavor across the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau. That right there kills either nation's capability to engage in a major war with the other. Second, what does India/China have that the other wants? Nothing. Both nations have or will in the near future have only enough resources to barely maintain their own populations, there's nothing left to be taken. With no capabilities and intentions, why all the fear-mongering? The two nations are no doubt competitors, but they'll never meet in major open battle, at least not over land.

Aside from capability and intention, there's one more thing. When's the last time Indians or Han Chinese aggressively expanded their borders? I don't know much about Indian history, but I don't recall any major conquests by native Indians. Similar with China, other than periods of dynastic changes, the Han Chinese have never pursued aggressive border expansions. In fact, whenever the Han Chinese overthrows a foreign dynasty, the borders get SMALLER, not larger. The Ming dynasty was certainly much smaller than the gigantic land mass accrued by the Mongols preceding them, and the PRC of today is also much smaller than the Qing dynasty conquered by the Manchurians. Territorial expansions are simply not in these two people's blood, unlike say the Romans, the Mongols, the Muslim empires, or even the Japanese(I'm excluding the Americans and the Germans for now because their attempts at expansions were at around the time of the births of their nations).

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby gakakkad » 27 Aug 2011 15:30

David , I appreciate the time you have taken in coming up with at least a logical post unlike the trolling your compatriots engage in.

Historically Chinese and Indians were brothers. We had exceptionally advanced , well developed civilizations when the west was a bunch of barbarians. Historic records of cultural exchanges and cooperation can be easily found.

But since ww2 PRC has done absolutely nothing to honour the historic relationship that we once had.

The reasons for mistrust are several--

Supplying nukes to porkis-- Even you would admit , that that was a lunatic thing to do. And the reason for doing it were hostility towards India. How you PRC feel if we supply a couple of warheads to vietnam or Taiwan ? And these countries are sensible nation field with progressive people. Not a tribe of lunatics like the Paki's. I mean why would a sensible nation like yours want to be associated with these terrorists?

Stapled Visa issue -- We did not raise tibet issue or uighur issue at international fora. We did not give stapled visa's to tibetans. Why is it that you still carry on such puerile diplomatic steps . We have not recognised taiwan in spite of the fact that it does a lot of business with us . What if we start paying you back in the same way? Trust me you won't like it.
If we wanted , we could have recognised Taiwan , and there is nothing the Chinese can do about it.

Supporting anti India insurgency in North east-- Our ex PM PV Narsimha Rao asked our intelligence agencies to stop covert ops in China , as a confidence building measure.. But you are keeping our most wanted terrorist paresh barua under you aegis.. Trust me , we have the capability to wreak similar havoc.. Our spineless politicians are not going to last long.

Expensive troops build up in Tibet-- Maintaining the troop level you are attempting to needs vast sums of money. It would perhaps occupy 20% of your annual defence budget. Why would you bear such an expense ? I have heard that you are giving dose of erythropoietin to your sodiers to help them acclimatize . That in itself is very expensive. I have just given it to one of my renal failure patients on dialysis a few hour ago. That guy could barely afford it. Other facilities too are costly..Stuff like decompression chamber..

Previous display's of hostility - Circa 1988.. Rajiv gandhi was India's PM.. Your commies felt a need to teach India a lesson.. Rajiv Gandhi ordered a millitary exercise in NE region. That gave you the shivers. Because unlike 1962 , we were far better prepared in 1988.

Anti India rhetoric on your national channels -- There has been a lot of BS spread around.. Opinions about balkanising India etc.. Crap like dividing it to 28 different pieces etc.

Personally , if India and China become close allies in my lifetime (and I am only in mid-late 20s) I ll be quite happy.. In fact I find a han girl quite attractive :oops: (sharam sharam).. But I don't talk to her because of the hostilities between the 2 nations. Had she been from Taiwan or singapore things would have been different.
Looking forward to your reply.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Don » 27 Aug 2011 15:34

DavidD wrote:
NRao wrote:Ah.

Guess that was bound to happen.

China uses eons to build, India sleeps, then MoD wakes up to a huge bill.


Well, such is life.

Wait till the next Kargil - this time on the border with China, and, then pay a bigger bill.

However, I am impressed with the Chinese capabilities. Bet that itself is a downer for India, enough to do nothing.


This is really a non-issue. I don't really get why the Indians are always afraid of some sort of massive attack from China. I mean, let's look at this "possibility" in a fundamental manner.

First, when was the last time either country engaged in a REAL war with the other? I'm not talking about short clashes like '62, but a real war with the aim of total subjugation of the other country, like the Muslims did to India or the Mongols did to China. Never. Why? Well, all military moves have to be analyzed through the prism of capability and intention, so let's look at these two things. First, there have never been nor will there be in the foreseeable future for either nation to sustain any sort of meaningful military endeavor across the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau. That right there kills either nation's capability to engage in a major war with the other. Second, what does India/China have that the other wants? Nothing. Both nations have or will in the near future have only enough resources to barely maintain their own populations, there's nothing left to be taken. With no capabilities and intentions, why all the fear-mongering? The two nations are no doubt competitors, but they'll never meet in major open battle, at least not over land.

Aside from capability and intention, there's one more thing. When's the last time Indians or Han Chinese aggressively expanded their borders? I don't know much about Indian history, but I don't recall any major conquests by native Indians. Similar with China, other than periods of dynastic changes, the Han Chinese have never pursued aggressive border expansions. In fact, whenever the Han Chinese overthrows a foreign dynasty, the borders get SMALLER, not larger. The Ming dynasty was certainly much smaller than the gigantic land mass accrued by the Mongols preceding them, and the PRC of today is also much smaller than the Qing dynasty conquered by the Manchurians. Territorial expansions are simply not in these two people's blood, unlike say the Romans, the Mongols, the Muslim empires, or even the Japanese(I'm excluding the Americans and the Germans for now because their attempts at expansions were at around the time of the births of their nations).


Hehehehe....I think you are going to get skewered or crucified for saying such thing. : )

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby PrasadZ » 27 Aug 2011 16:42

DavidD wrote:This is really a non-issue. I don't really get why the Indians are always afraid of some sort of massive attack from China..

I agree. For me, chinas rise is a welcome indicator of indian potential, a sporting rivalry, not a territorial or ideological one

DavidD wrote:Territorial expansions are simply not in these two people's blood, unlike say the Romans, the Mongols, the Muslim empires, or even the Japanese

This is han myth making :) but hell, i see nuf mythmaking from indians too. Kinda makes the point that the 2 peoples behave similarly on the international stage.

Bro, u really need to get out more if u r gonna state that the han r not expanding at their neighbors expense.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby D Roy » 27 Aug 2011 20:39

I don't really get why the Indians are always afraid of some sort of massive attack from China. I mean, let's look at this "possibility" in a fundamental manner.

First, when was the last time either country engaged in a REAL war with the other? I'm not talking about short clashes like '62, but a real war



That, is exactly the point. We know very well that your Chicom commanders don't want a major war. That would not serve their purpose at all.

The point of 1962 was very clear -to strike a sudden blow on a rival in order to emerge in the eyes of the world as the "greater Asian power". And 1962 was managed beautifully, kudos to your Chairman Mao for that. He showed dynamism that our leaders lacked.

But 1962 was so effective precisely because it changed perceptions and created new perceptions without China having to indulge in a major war that would have proved too costly. It was absolutely brilliant in terms of the risk/return ratio.

It showed up India to be run by incompetent people and created a psyche of awe and fear in the minds of ordinary Indians about red China. For the hawks in the west it was telling proof of their peculiar belief that the Dragon is "stronger" than the Cow, for isn't that what your comrades had called India while identifying America as the Eagle, Russia as the Bear and of course yourselves as the Dragon? Within a decade and a half of '62 American investment started flowing into China - "the stronger destination". And we had to turn to the Soviets. yes I know you think they came to you "only" to counterbalance the soviets. But that isn't the only reason.

It has taken two generations of Indians to get over the 62 fixation. Now when "dirty" India has started posting the "growth rate" , your leaders are scared. For the last thirty years using your allies in the Anglosphere you have projected yourselves as the true blue Asians rising into prominence through discipline whereas we have been the laggards. Wasn't Chairman Mao's typical refrain that you guys were the 'true Asian power" whereas Nehru because of his contacts in the West got India to punch much above its weight in international fora?

But now that has changed. Our young people are showing what they can do from writing software to holding placards in the rain.


Your central bank does not have any more room for another fiscal stimulus. Your "high" growth rate is completely dependent on Government spending. Inflation targetting isn't working and given that you are an "open economy" you can't really target the interest rate anyway.
Your commanders are now thinking " Hell this bloody India is progressing, it is not overexposed to American dollars and what's more it is progressing despite democracy". That's bad news for your masters and they now think that the time is arriving when if they could strike a short sharp blow that dents India's image and its psyche they could once again manipulate global expectations and perceptions like they did fifty years ago.

Naturally it can't happen out of the blue, so once again "differing perceptions" about the border, "violations" , "talk about Southern Tibet" and of course the fact that India hosts the Dalai Lama is being brought up. Also the Kashmir issue is being raised by you guys by your supposedly clever 'stapled visas" tactic.

So, my friend, we are not at all afraid of a major attack by you guys. On the other hand a "short limited conflict" is something that certainly can't be ruled out given the proclivities of your commanders.

But make no mistake. This isn't 1962. And it ain't gonna be pretty.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby NRao » 27 Aug 2011 21:57

Don wrote:
DavidD wrote:This is really a non-issue. I don't really get why the Indians are always afraid of some sort of massive attack from China. I mean, let's look at this "possibility" in a fundamental manner.

First, when was the last time either country engaged in a REAL war with the other? I'm not talking about short clashes like '62, but a real war with the aim of total subjugation of the other country, like the Muslims did to India or the Mongols did to China. Never. Why? Well, all military moves have to be analyzed through the prism of capability and intention, so let's look at these two things. First, there have never been nor will there be in the foreseeable future for either nation to sustain any sort of meaningful military endeavor across the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau. That right there kills either nation's capability to engage in a major war with the other. Second, what does India/China have that the other wants? Nothing. Both nations have or will in the near future have only enough resources to barely maintain their own populations, there's nothing left to be taken. With no capabilities and intentions, why all the fear-mongering? The two nations are no doubt competitors, but they'll never meet in major open battle, at least not over land.

Aside from capability and intention, there's one more thing. When's the last time Indians or Han Chinese aggressively expanded their borders? I don't know much about Indian history, but I don't recall any major conquests by native Indians. Similar with China, other than periods of dynastic changes, the Han Chinese have never pursued aggressive border expansions. In fact, whenever the Han Chinese overthrows a foreign dynasty, the borders get SMALLER, not larger. The Ming dynasty was certainly much smaller than the gigantic land mass accrued by the Mongols preceding them, and the PRC of today is also much smaller than the Qing dynasty conquered by the Manchurians. Territorial expansions are simply not in these two people's blood, unlike say the Romans, the Mongols, the Muslim empires, or even the Japanese(I'm excluding the Americans and the Germans for now because their attempts at expansions were at around the time of the births of their nations).


Hehehehe....I think you are going to get skewered or crucified for saying such thing. : )


Well, he makes some very good points. Just that his data set is incomplete. Some other posters have made most if not all the remaining points.

But, let me add a few that I feel are important:

1) China has a very small window in which she can actually attack. IMVVHO that window will close around 2015-17 time frame
2) China will not attack - the cost (NOT ROI) will be too much. Politically the PLA will not be able to withstand it
3) The PLA (NOT China - they are two different entities as far as I am concerned - is building only to ensure that they get what they want without a fight. Let us be clear - the goal is to get something - that goal is there. I do NOT believe that the PLA is building up for the heck of it (there is no threat to China on THAT border - and there never will be from an Indian PoV)
4) The Indian build up - like Ravi mentioned (in orbat.com) is an offensive one. (Frankly I am rather surprised that the MoD is making noise at this Point in time. I was under the impression that the MoD had woken up AND matured. Guess not. Diff story tho')

My real concerns:

5) China has used third parties to do her dirty work. Not just by providing nukes to Pakistan (which will backfire - remember they are Islamic nukes - provided by the Almighty through an infidel called China - yes China is an infidel until China converts to Islam. And, Chinese help is NOT help from China, it is Providence that is providing this help to the good Islamic nation of Pakistan. China just happens to be a mere instrument of delivery.) but also by providing help/funds to dilute Indian economy by infusing counterfeit currency, etc. Nepal seems to have been blunted by India. SL should be next. This data point did not exist centuries ago, just like the State within a State, called the PLA (just like the ISI - gosh so many sinilarities between the two nations) did not exist then.

I have trust and faith in China.

I have NO trust nor faith in the State with the State of china, called the PLA. You see THAT is my problem. PLA.

Don, any comments?

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby shyam » 27 Aug 2011 23:37


skher
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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby skher » 28 Aug 2011 02:53

NRao wrote:
I have trust and faith in China.

I have NO trust nor faith in the State with the State of china, called the PLA. You see THAT is my problem. PLA.


Saar, the sorority feeling is mutual. China has faith in Indian Buddhism and India entrusts gastronomical experiments to weekly bouts of chowmein.

Moreover,Customer Support India is busy earning revenue by saying sorry for Overtime World Factory China's manufacturing defects and deriving profits by fixing the Designer American bugs that augment the product's functions.

However, People's Republic and GoI never had faith in each other, least of all in terms of border management & Tibet.THAT is perhaps a Big problem. Or as PLA People's Daily would say that it neither has trust nor faith in the Dalai Clique and his strongest military host, the GoI.

P.S.:
Likely to be OT but might I also add that I have a lot of trust in Pakistan and its paid phreedham phighters, who are financed by Made in China minting machines.They test national defenses without fail.But, The ISI and PakArmy OTOH are regularly unfaithful and have lost without much fight.
Meanwhile, I fervently hope a day will dawn when my nation, the largest importer, can proudly field kwality arms materiel from our Humble Himalayan Northern Neighbour,China. Staying tuned. :twisted: :twisted:

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby rajrang » 28 Aug 2011 10:06

NRao wrote:
Well, he makes some very good points.

1) China has a very small window in which she can actually attack. IMVVHO that window will close around 2015-17 time frame



I think you have made some excellent points, but I am sorry, I am not sure I agree with the above comment. Both gakakkad and D Roy have made excellent arguments as well.

Can you explain your statement that the small window for a Chinese attack will close around 2015-17? From an economic standpoint, one could argue that the potential for a Chinese attack will only increase in the next 10 to 20 years:

1) The economic growth of China (~ 10%/yr) is much faster than US, Europe and slightly faster than India. This means that the ability of the world opinion (i.e. US and Europe) to dissuade China from attacking India will only weaken with time. India will be left facing China (and TSP) alone beyond that time. (By 2020, based on current performance, China will have the largest GNP (PPP) in the world, the US number 2, India number 3, Japan number 4).

2) Further, in the next 20 years, the Chinese economic growth rate will max out (high standards of living) and the growth rate will inevitably slow down, while the Indian economy being relatively behind should continue to have high growth rates. This would tend to narrow the gap between India and China, creating insecurities in China.

3) It is also possible that in the 20-year time frame, the Taiwan and the South East Asia Sea problems have been sorted out, allowing China's military to focus primarily on India.

Therefore, one could argue that early in the second quarter of this century, China's economic power will be maximum relative to India, and at that time China will have the maximum ability to attack India. (This is all based on the logic that military strength is directly proportional to the size of an economy.) At that time the rest of the world may simply be by-standers watching India and China battle it out.

Maybe this belongs in the strategic thread.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Christopher Sidor » 28 Aug 2011 10:59

DavidD wrote:
NRao wrote:Ah.

Guess that was bound to happen.

China uses eons to build, India sleeps, then MoD wakes up to a huge bill.


Well, such is life.

Wait till the next Kargil - this time on the border with China, and, then pay a bigger bill.

However, I am impressed with the Chinese capabilities. Bet that itself is a downer for India, enough to do nothing.


This is really a non-issue. I don't really get why the Indians are always afraid of some sort of massive attack from China. I mean, let's look at this "possibility" in a fundamental manner.

I would beg to differ with you on that point.

DavidD wrote:First, when was the last time either country engaged in a REAL war with the other? I'm not talking about short clashes like '62, but a real war with the aim of total subjugation of the other country, like the Muslims did to India or the Mongols did to China. Never.

In 1962 we lost about 90000 sq kms of Indian territory to the Chinese, our state of Arunachal Pradesh. In the northwestern China occupied some 30000 sq kms of Indian territory, which it continues to do till this date. It would be a mistake to say that "short" clashes took place in 1962. And if china can continue to occupy 30,000 sq-kms of indian territory, then it can occuy 3,00,000 sq-kms too. After all they continue to occupy Tibet, East Turkestan along with Inner Manglolia.

DavidD wrote: Why? Well, all military moves have to be analyzed through the prism of capability and intention, so let's look at these two things. First, there have never been nor will there be in the foreseeable future for either nation to sustain any sort of meaningful military endeavor across the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau.
That right there kills either nation's capability to engage in a major war with the other. Second, what does India/China have that the other wants? Nothing. Both nations have or will in the near future have only enough resources to barely maintain their own populations, there's nothing left to be taken. With no capabilities and intentions, why all the fear-mongering? The two nations are no doubt competitors, but they'll never meet in major open battle, at least not over land.

Thanks for differentiating intention and capability. Before 1989 USA did not have the capability to occupy Iraq. Post the 1989 the fall of berlin wall, that capability came within its grasp. Intention followed Capability. Ditto for China. Prior to the so called "liberation of Tibet" post 1945, China did not have the capability to interfere in the de-facto independence of Tibet. Once the civil war ended and consolidation of Hans Chinese dominated area was completed, the capability came. Please do not assume that today's restriction will apply into future, i.e. say that China will not have the capability or the intention to do a repeat of Tibet on India's Eastern, North-Eastern and North - Western Area.

If there is a belief that Tibet and Himalayas present some sort of barrier to Invasion of India from the east and north, then please answer one question, why was this barrier breached in 1962? This barrier should have prevented PLA troops from reaching the gates of Assam. It should have prevented British troops from invading Tibet prior to our Independence. This so called "myth" that the Himalayas present some sort of "insurmountable" obstacle, is still very prevalent. That is why I have always insisted that the real lessons of 1962 have never been learnt. Maybe it because we are in so much awe of the out-dated imperial British thinking that we continue to believe in its relevance even today.

Just as another assumption is sought to be propagated that China and India will never meet in a land battle. Assumption which is without any foundation. Just wait till Taiwan falls under PRC's control. Wanna bet who will be the target after that ??

Let us now tackle the second part of your argument that, India has nothing to offer China. In early 1960s there was this idea floating around, "Stealing India's monsoons" proposed by some tom-dick-harry chinese. The idea was to blow up big holes in the Himalayan mountain range, Geo-Engineering with nukes on steroids. By the way this is an example of "intent," no matter how fanciful.
Currently the ecological degradation that has happened in China is seen to be believed. China's water supply is contaminated. Its water management is grossly incompetent.

There are various reasons and not one reason why countries are invaded and occupied. One of them is threat elimination. Hitler did not invade France and rest of western europe so as to get something out of them. No it was to secure his western frontier before he could turn on to this primary goal, Soviet Union. He had learnt from the mistake of Kasier. Offcourse success went to his head and when the two front war did became a reality, he refused to change course.

DavidD wrote:Aside from capability and intention, there's one more thing. When's the last time Indians or Han Chinese aggressively expanded their borders? I don't know much about Indian history, but I don't recall any major conquests by native Indians. Similar with China, other than periods of dynastic changes, the Han Chinese have never pursued aggressive border expansions.

You really need to read up the chinese history. This statement is without basis in the history of China. China has always sought to dominate its neighbors. Just see China's perception of itself prior to the modern age the so called "The Middle Kingdom". The place where everybody else went to pay "tribute".

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Philip » 28 Aug 2011 14:31

There was another report recently,can't find it right now,where China is supposed to be able to quickly have in place no less than "30 divisions" against India in Tibet thanks to the Tibetan railway,etc.This the report says ,outnumbers the Indian Army "3 to 1".and is a grave cause for alarm.Added toi this is the fact that the Chinese have also deployed hundreds of tactical missiles against India from Tibet,etc.,indicates that in any crisis,it will be China that will strike first in massive missiles strikes to obliterate our key military bases,ommand centres and military deployments prior to a massive invasion from all 3 compass points.

Should China invade/atttack India thus,we will have NO alternative but to destroy every Chinese warship and merchantman in the IOR and Indo-China Sea.The miserable follow up to the great PRC threat is a scandal and the nation needs an Anna Hazare movement ,perhaps by former military men,to get the rulers cracking on meeting he challenge through immediate action.


China's About To Outfit Its Subs With Controversial "First-Strike" Nuclear Warheads

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon ... z1WJfhl4D8

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby gakakkad » 28 Aug 2011 15:56

@ Rajrang - The economic growth rate of the chinese has already slowed down . Last year India grew faster than China. Their is extreme inequality in the Chinese society. Far more than that of the Americans. The mango chinese does not live a good life. The inflation is at an all time high. There will be a lot of internal troubles. So a distraction is inevitable.

Indian food inflation is much less than that of the Chinese. And yet the Anna movement took place. People simply cannot tolerate food inflation.

So in the window period of 2015-2017 they have an oportunity to mess up with India.

This time around they ll get a bloody nose. If any misadventure is attempted , they ll probably disintegrate. Because the inflation would increase greatly. Also paki terrorist may go uncontrollable in Uighur land. Besides US will bring its navy in north vietnam sea . They may send re-enforcements to Taiwan. And the war would open on all fronts.

Having said that , I wish NREGA funds are diverted to defence..There may be some mole in the Indian parliament.. Who raised the issue of defence budget in the chinese border to be too much ? was it a trinamool MP?

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby kit » 28 Aug 2011 16:33

Philip wrote:smilies




What about a pakee response to a seemingly 3:1 numbers to chinese aggression ? A tactical nuclear attack against PLA formations ? Also why cannot the FIRST USE clause be modified against attack by a nuclear nation.

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Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Mahendra » 28 Aug 2011 17:09

What is the rationale for the so called 2015 to 2017 window, just a few months ago it used to be 2011-2013 window
Last edited by Mahendra on 28 Aug 2011 18:02, edited 1 time in total.


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