China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

[NRao]

Trying to go toe to toe with China is not a very good strategy.

It would help immensely if the Japanese, for instance, wean themselves off of China. China needs to be out of the economic loop ASAP. It will be very difficult for nations to support a non-Chinese proposal if the nation/s are being economically bailed out by China.

Once that writing is on the wall China will heel.

[chackojoseph]

Trying to go toe to toe with China is not a very good strategy.

What are you referring to?

[shiv]

US Carriers have carrier based AWACS that I think look after threats to the CBG from perhaps 1000 km away. Even if India did get bigger carriers we do not have the aircraft to do that job. I suspect that an Indian carrier can be insulated against threats from perhaps 300 km away using ship and helo based surveillance. Just my own guesstimates here.

Having said that Indian carriers will typically be expected to operate in the Indian Ocean with shore based assets helping out. They are hardly likely to be deployed a an independent group in the Pacific or Atlantic. We will look after our pond first.

[chackojoseph]

Bigger carriers will take bigger package including AWACS. Bigger will enable off shore based doctrine. Viet's are already offering replenishment base. Acting in tandem with US and Japan, IMO, will be good to keep sea lanes open. Abe had said that Indons and other ASEAN will join. Since, South Korea and Japan are on the other side of the South China sea. If Chinese are able to choke, we will be deprived of trading with one of the most major economies. It is time, Indian navy starts engaging even the Pacific Islands Forum. All these countries are currently running on Chinese trade and money. Chinese are doing there what we are in Maldives.

[ShauryaT]

3 Indian Aircraft carriers have a psychological impact. It can be seen in former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's speech yesterday ( Japan backs India on South China sea)

with three aircraft carriers, India can assure Vietnamese, Americans, South Koreans “if not the Chinese” of the stability in the region.

Sometime back I had said that our a/c carriers are not big enough and IAC-2 should have a higher tonnage. Japs are used to seeing US aircraft carriers.

There are many reports alluding to IAC2 being at least 65K tonnage with a catapult, presuming US help? IAC 1 has engines from GE. What is the veracity of these reports, any ideas?

[member_19648]

There are many reports alluding to IAC2 being at least 65K tonnage with a catapult, presuming US help? IAC 1 has engines from GE. What is the veracity of these reports, any ideas?

IAC 1 will use General Electric LM2500 gas turbines as per reports I have read. Also, the navy chief had said recently that IAC 2 is not a priority for the Navy at this point of time. Will take time to materialize I guess.

[Garooda]

India warns China:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 000158.cms

Yikes!

You mean scaring the chinese and instill the fear from 'Dhoti ke Neeche kyaa hai..Dhoti ke Neeche...?'

[Garooda]

Here we go...not sure if this was posted or being discussed else where but 'Chest Thumping' at its best?????

I think this "chest thumping" business is mutual .

Frankly I'm surprised though happy with the response from the Dhoti Club

[member_19648]

You mean scaring the chinese and instill the fear from 'Dhoti ke Neeche kyaa hai?'

The same old stuff by the Media with new colour aka Headline. The media is just going on feeding from this news of rebuttals by either side, in line with what the west wants???

One thing I wanted to ask! In recent past, there have been so many incursions and veiled threat, I was chatting with an army major, he said, its a lingering fear that the Chinese would want to cutoff the two chicken necks (very weak areas) of India, I am sure the locations are easy guess. Some 11000 PLA troops are stationed in POK and would increase in coming years. Now, GOI is averse to the idea of increasing India's defence in those areas like building new roads, infra, mountain brigades, helipads and is challenging the chinese in their backyard, the South China Sea which is a very difficult game. Question: Is it a good strategy? Why not increase the guard at home so that no one can challenge and then take the challenge to their backyard? Don't we stand to lose on both sides if some War breaks out?

Pros, pleas enlighten!!!

[chackojoseph]

IAC2 being at least 65K tonnage

IAC-2 specs are not out yet. Last time someone asked, it was said that let the IAc 1 come out first. However, 65 K tonnage is not baseless. If it is so, we will need IAC-3 with 100 - 120 K tonnes. We need one and a half squadron floating in china Sea and we need 3 squadrons during conflicts. EAC should have 3 carriers.

I had two pet theories a year back. I was bit afraid to discuss them. I will tell you folks.

1) I always believed that the Chinese noise about IOR was an attention divert (left signal and right turn) and the real action will be in China Sea and pacific. I had sent this query to a well know expert with a well known think tank and he dismissed it. I had theorised China will inevitably fight with neighbors and they will head to India. China will try to choke them so that they are not able to deal with India and the industries in China will not experience a flight. I wrote about the growing proximity with India - Vietnam advocating that it is India's historic responsibility protecting it ( India finally wakes up to Vietnam). The Japan - Chinese patrol boat incident, the rare earth issue etc, I thought "it's playing out?"

Well yes, its playing out.

I had also visualised that EAC will become the most important sword of arm from 2017 onwards. Let us wait for that and see. We need 3 aircraft carriers. The cost of deploying them will be justified due to economic activity. We need bigger carriers. By 2030, we should have atleast six squadrons to damage China in eastern shores as China may begin bombing our industrial base.

2) Pakistani IRBM's are for CIS and Russia and not India. (A fact verified by a) when Russia threatened to pull out of the IRBM restriction treaty last year or so citing IRBM's in the neighborhood. b) DRDO saying that they will overshoot). Not relevant in this debate though.

[Garooda]

You mean scaring the chinese and instill the fear from 'Dhoti ke Neeche kyaa hai?'

Some 11000 PLA troops are stationed in POK and would increase in coming years. Now, GOI is averse to the idea of increasing India's defence in those areas like building new roads, infra, mountain brigades, helipads and is challenging the chinese in their backyard, the South China Sea which is a very difficult game.

Question: Is it a good strategy? Why not increase the guard at home so that no one can challenge and then take the challenge to their backyard? Don't we stand to lose on both sides if some War breaks out?

Lets not forget that India has a big army too and MBT's that the Chinese might not bring with them if they plan to use POK and Arunachal Pradesh/Tibet or the regions where their MBTs can cross into from the northeast terrain. The logistics and supply chain for the Chinku Army has to be pretty good to provide a sustained operation (if any) against India from either of the east or west entry points. One thing the Chinese are good at (reverse engineering) and have plenty of it is Missiles (cheap ones and not so cheap ones) that many countries around the world use it just to distract or cause significant damage to the military/economy. I'm sure they will use a barrage of both Air and Land based ones to do their initial move before even dreaming about crossing with their army or MBT's (if any).

I'm sure the Indian Military and not the Dhoti Club is aware of the strategic positioning of the different branches of Defense though the procurement of the hardware is not completely balanced at this time to thwart off the possible chinku threat. Can someone post a link or a WAG (Wild Ass Guess) numbers comparing the chinku and india's branches (Army, Navy and Air Force) and their types of equipment(s). http://www.globalsecurity.org is one such website but not sure about their information.

[Christopher Sidor]

U.S. Faces Rising Risks in Vow to Defend Taiwan -- Wall Street Journal

In 1996 US sent two of its CBG to Taiwan after China literally went ballistic. China was forced to back down. But within 16 years, it reversed the situation completely. From the article

A U.S. decision to sell Taiwan upgrades of old fighter jets, rather than new planes, reflects a fresh reality in the region: All sides are calculating that the island is increasingly indefensible to an attack by China, and are banking on closer economic ties as a path to resolving historic tensions.
...
As it is, Taiwan's air force could be overwhelmed in as little as two hours in the event of an all-out invasion by China, which would probably begin with massive missile strikes on air bases and other strategic sites, several experts said.
In the more likely scenario of a naval blockade, Taiwan might hold out for up to two or three weeks—its basic defense doctrine being not to defeat Chinese forces but to resist them just long enough for the U.S. to intervene, the experts said.

Now the only thing which is stopping a full blown reunification is the lack of significant amphibious capability and also the capability to enforce a naval blockade of the eastern ports of Taiwan, i.e. ports which open to the Pacific and not to the Taiwan straits. Again continuing from the same article

Today, though, it is unclear if the U.S. could risk doing the same,(i.e. sending of its 2 CBG to Taiwan in 1996) as its bases in South Korea, Japan and Guam are now within reach of Chinese missiles, and an approaching U.S. carrier would be vulnerable to multiple Chinese missile and submarine attacks.

"That's the million-dollar question, which the U.S. is hoping to keep ambiguous for as long as possible," said Alexander von Rosenbach, armed forces editor of IHS Jane's.

Again from the article

The (US) officials also deny putting commercial relations with China, the world's second-largest economy and biggest holder of U.S. debt, ahead of the U.S. commitment, enshrined in the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, to help Taiwan defend itself.

Let us face it, Taiwan is a pawn, which can be discarded. Also the so called Taiwan Relations Act does not say that US will get involved in a war between Taiwan and PRC. And US will not risk San Francisco for the sake of Taipei. In 1989 after the most brutal suppression of dissidents by China, it took only 4 years for the isolation of China to break. And it was broken, ironically by the japanese emperor.

To this we have to add that Taiwan saw itself as "Republic of China". i.e part of china. It has not till date said that it is independent of China. Even today along with China, Taiwan considers Tibet to be a part of China. Ditto for East-Turkestan.

We have to see what Taiwan brings to China. Taiwan's ports, which face Pacific give PLAAN the capability to access deep water areas of Pacific. Once it has Taiwan, China no longer will be hemmed in by the so called first Island Chain and possibly render, irrelevant the 2nd island chain. Further acquisition of Taiwan gives China unparalleled domination of South China Sea and the ability to choke the shipping lines of Japan and Korea. Shipping lines on which both of these countries depend massively for oil and gas.

[member_19648]

Isn't it obvious! The mighty USA is a long gone era though it will take several years before they hit the dust. In the recent parliament discussion, senators opposed the no-military sales to Taiwan only on grounds that some states would lose jobs, which depend on aircraft assembling. Such is the state of USA which once proclaimed himself to be the defender of justice, the police of the seven seas. Uncle's days of policing are done and it is now trying well too hard to contain its detractors. That's why maybe the desperate push to get others to fight his own wars!

Nonetheless, its a great chance for India to rise up to the occasion and assume leadership role in Asia itself. Other countries are looking forward to it. The only thing lacking in India is strong National objectives and vision for the future, how and where would one see her in the coming years. If the whole nation works towards it, I am sure, she would rise above all. Unfortunately, the previous generation has seen only poverty and so the singular vision remains only to beat it!

[ShauryaT]

One thing I wanted to ask! In recent past, there have been so many incursions and veiled threat, I was chatting with an army major, he said, its a lingering fear that the Chinese would want to cutoff the two chicken necks (very weak areas) of India, I am sure the locations are easy guess. Some 11000 PLA troops are stationed in POK and would increase in coming years. Now, GOI is averse to the idea of increasing India's defence in those areas like building new roads, infra, mountain brigades, helipads and is challenging the chinese in their backyard, the South China Sea which is a very difficult game. Question: Is it a good strategy? Why not increase the guard at home so that no one can challenge and then take the challenge to their backyard? Don't we stand to lose on both sides if some War breaks out?

Already doing that. Slower than we should, but certainly, infrastructure development in the NE is a high priority. One thing, that will add impetus to these is a boost to the local economy with some good governance. There is only so much BRO and Central agencies can do. State level investment can supercharge the efforts.

[NRao]

I had two pet theories a year back. I was bit afraid to discuss them. I will tell you folks.

1) I always believed that the Chinese noise about IOR was an attention divert (left signal and right turn) and the real action will be in China Sea and pacific.
...................................

2) Pakistani IRBM's are for CIS and Russia and not India. (A fact verified by a) when Russia threatened to pull out of the IRBM restriction treaty last year or so citing IRBM's in the neighborhood. b) DRDO saying that they will overshoot). Not relevant in this debate though.

I think you are about right, just that I do not think the Chinese planed it that a way.

Recall that a Chinese Admiral had proposed to the US of spliting the world up - with IOR going to China? That is where I feel their game plan fell apart. I feel now China will reboot. They cannot back out. They have to take on whatever is tossed at them and they seem to be preparing for it.

On Paki nukes, you seem to imply that China has control over them. The larger ones perhaps, but Paki's are nude, IMHO.

[Guddu]

From Stratfor...

That is an amateur analysis. I have seen better commentaries from many BRFites.

Internet+time+enthusiast= "strategic analysis"

Agree, this is not Strat's most brilliant effort. But there are many reasons for posting even a mediocre piece. One of which is that it helps understand how Strat molds public opinion in the US. The reality is that many policy makers read Strat and form opinions about global issues.

[Yagnasri]

Taiwan also bring tech base which is at present not available with it. This Tech base will be a force multiplier for China. Can any guru's post on the Taiwan capability on designing of fighters etc and in the electronic warfare side. Further we can be sure Chinese will come up with yet more strange arguments to claim entire South China sea is theirs.

But will Taiwanese want to join at present when they are better off alone.

[ShauryaT]

But will Taiwanese want to join at present when they are better off alone.

Why is Taiwan better off alone?

[chackojoseph]

I think you are about right, just that I do not think the Chinese planed it that a way.

Recall that a Chinese Admiral had proposed to the US of spliting the world up - with IOR going to China? That is where I feel their game plan fell apart. I feel now China will reboot. They cannot back out. They have to take on whatever is tossed at them and they seem to be preparing for it.

On Paki nukes, you seem to imply that China has control over them. The larger ones perhaps, but Paki's are nude, IMHO.

a) China: I always believed that China doesn't has the resources to be in IOR. Via IOR what will it gain? 1) Oil supplies which it is diversifying from Russia and other places. 2) African Trade: which I believe will never be Chinese major source. It will be always the Asian Tigers, CIS, Russia, Europe, Pacific and US. I don't see China breaking through the IOR region. It will have nominal presense here.

b) Paki's have this extra production of nukes. Ever wondered why? It is because Pakis have slowly realised that India is a tough customer and CIS/Middle east are more fertile for influence due to presence of Muslim brotherhood. India has bleeding them or if they have to fight India, they need resources from the CIS/ME. The IRBM is for the Russians (since Chinese are expected to be allies), who will be a major say in CIS matters. The Missile/nuke combo which is being used to bargain with India will be the template of its relation with Russia.

[Venkarl]

The Missile/nuke combo which is being used to bargain with India will be the template of its relation with Russia.

Sorry to break in Chacko Sir, but the question is what will Pakis bargain with Russia with the combo in its backpack? are you hinting that Pakis still fear Russians' reply to ISI's direct involvement against Soviet invasion OR for its involvement in Chechnya? Can you expand on Russo-Paki equation further specifically on this Combo being developed with Russians in mind for this small brain?(may be on different thread if not here)...please.

Regards.

[chackojoseph]

Sorry to break in Chacko Sir, but the question is what will Pakis bargain with Russia with the combo in its backpack? are you hinting that Pakis still fear Russians' reply to ISI's direct involvement against Soviet invasion OR for its involvement in Chechnya? Can you expand on Russo-Paki equation further specifically on this Combo being developed with Russians in mind for this small brain?(may be on different thread if not here)...please.

Regards.

Pakis are good at their "bomb blast" diplomacy and if you notice, the Russians have begun engaging them. Paki influence in the Islamic CIS nations should be looked into. You will see they have made major inroads. IMO, The combo will be a major element. They will use Islamic card, the bomb blast card etc to engage Russia dominated CIS and will hold Russia by throat with the combo. The only thing thats stopping them is the Afghan impasse. But, they are preparing for the time when US looses interest in the country or US cannot sustain it. Then it will be an cake walk for Pakis. They are prepared for the eventuality, when/if it comes. It's my theory.

[V_Raman]

if that is the case, russia should allow india to into CIS states around AFG. i guess that is already happening.

[krisna]

I had two pet theories a year back. I was bit afraid to discuss them. I will tell you folks.

1) I always believed that the Chinese noise about IOR was an attention divert (left signal and right turn) and the real action will be in China Sea and pacific. I had sent this query to a well know expert with a well known think tank and he dismissed it. I had theorised China will inevitably fight with neighbors and they will head to India. China will try to choke them so that they are not able to deal with India and the industries in China will not experience a flight. I wrote about the growing proximity with India - Vietnam advocating that it is India's historic responsibility protecting it ( India finally wakes up to Vietnam). The Japan - Chinese patrol boat incident, the rare earth issue etc, I thought "it's playing out?"

Well yes, its playing out.

I am with you that real action will be near coastal areas of china.
As with any dictatorship anywhere ccp quells internal dissension severely.
It is always worried about internal coups or revolutions. It is ingrained in them. It keeps herculean efforts to quell them. Internal factors shape external appearances.
1) CCP main policy is always bringing taiwan into its fold, and subverting the nationalistic aspirations of non hans (tibetans, mongols and uighurs). Among all chinese empires ccp is in the strongest position relatively with largest territory under it.
2) CCP wants to control chinese for eons- hence the desire to bring the utopia to chinese slowly and surely by whatever means- have let loose the chinese nationalism unrivalled.
3) common chinese have taken it as a form of protest/dissedent against CCP. CCP channelises them to release the pent up pressure. During these various protests on embassies etc chinese are given various freedom except indulge against party or violence on state apparatus.
4) At present India is important but not at the very top. It is always taiwan/usa, japan and koreas vietnam etc. India is slowly rising in prominence due to vietnam factor. It has grown several manifold due to potential destabilising factor for chinese ccp.

IMHO it is a good move in the escalation game with minimum outright hostilities.
India should not allow china to totally control the coastal areas of china. It need not have a dominant presence but enough to cause takleef to china. (also improve the economic cooperation betwen them). Japan korea and vietnam will be glad to put their navies to good use. China will always look behind its backside to make sure it is not vulnerable.

5) wrt Tibet and aksai chin/pok- It will be difficult for china-pak combo to hold onto to Indian territory for sufficient length of time. India should stop naming tibet as a part of china. diplomatic silence for now unless asked. say pok is Indian territory. Can create minor diplomatic gaffes saying tibet is independent, Indo-tibet border only etc by different officials etc later saying there were individual opinions etc etc. just to keep it boiling without overflow.

6) CCP fears India primarily because it surrounds china across hostile territories- tibet/xinjaing and coastal areas of china(through alliances). It has the potential to rival in economy and militarily , suffciently large straddling the IOR, ability to choke it off at multiple points in IOR.It has the potential to create ccp downfall in the long run if played smartly.

7) Indian economy if it continues to grow well for the next few years irrespective of chinese economic growth, it will help create conditions for its hegemony in IOR and east asian region( with allies).

8 ) democracy is its strongest weapon against ccp dictatorship.

No need for outright war which is foolish but continuing build up of economy with resultant spinoffs to politico-military objectives with minimum fuss.

[Boreas]

a) China: I always believed that China doesn't has the resources to be in IOR. Via IOR what will it gain? 1) Oil supplies which it is diversifying from Russia and other places. 2) African Trade: which I believe will never be Chinese major source. It will be always the Asian Tigers, CIS, Russia, Europe, Pacific and US. I don't see China breaking through the IOR region. It will have nominal presense here.

b) Paki's have this extra production of nukes. Ever wondered why? It is because Pakis have slowly realised that India is a tough customer and CIS/Middle east are more fertile for influence due to presence of Muslim brotherhood. India has bleeding them or if they have to fight India, they need resources from the CIS/ME. The IRBM is for the Russians (since Chinese are expected to be allies), who will be a major say in CIS matters. The Missile/nuke combo which is being used to bargain with India will be the template of its relation with Russia.

Agree with point a).

1. However I doubt that Missile/nuke combo will generate any concerns in Kremlin. They have long and elaborate experience of living under the shadow of nukes. And possess a credible defence mechanism.

1.a) Pakis are relatively completely nude, to what could be Russian response in terms of a missile counter offensive, leave the nukes. I mean even if no one fires anything, just raw data on paper will make kiyani wet his tailor made pant.



2. Secondly China will never support a paki show off of nuke/missile to russia.

2.a) Unless russia gets so weak that China can attempt to make it their doll. This could have been a possibility in 90’s, but not remotely possible now.

2.b) The other reason why China never wishes to be a well-known face in CIS, is that it already got its hand full in East Asia and then what is left is spent on India. Infact they realised that their hands are too full in East Asia and what is left is not good enough to even out India. This is the reason China is engaging pakis so generously these days, they know its virtually impossible now, to go for a one on one with India and survive that gracefully.

2.c) Lastly The two most imp things china needed from ex-soviets was there technology and there resources. Tech as much as was possible they managed from there ukranian friends (and russian as well in 90's). Resources they can buy. And they are buying as somebody said above like gas from russia.



3. Islamist radicalism and nuclear threat in CIS is not in favour of unkil.

3.a) Unkil has both wish and resources to spread its influence in CIS. And nothing pisses unkil more then a bunch of jihadis.

3.b) And nobody knows better than unkil, how to put pressure on the right nerve. For example the recent statement of Mike Mullen.

3.c) Unkil won't let go pakis with something like this, unless Russia again becomes the second super power of world. unkil gets a dejavu and starts funding mujahidin again. This looks highly unlikely.



4. Then ques is why IRBMs? I'll still go with the countering-israel for the whole islamic world theory.



5. However one interesting thing is that I too think in future Russia will engage pakis more closely.

5.a) Russia can use pakis to prevent Indians from forgetting there old friend. Can create a quid pro quo sort of situation. More India will drift away, more bones will be thrown towards pakis. Enough hints have been given and everybody knows what is powering bandar.

5.b) The american phrase of India being a Natural Ally, shows a clear acceptance of its rising power as well as the possible future status. Now this natural alliance although is to counter china, will definitely worry Russia and will affect its zone of influence.

5.c) Despite differences with china, russia by principle will always see unkil as its prime competitor. And will seek to enter into its strongholds.

5.d) Its also in wellbeing of pakistan to seek a friend in russia, as and when it is abandoned by unkil. Its all-weather friendship with china is good enough to engage india, but that can never stop unkil from sending pakis back to stone age. For that they need a bigger hand over there head.


Just speculations

[Boreas]

5) wrt Tibet and aksai chin/pok- It will be difficult for china-pak combo to hold onto to Indian territory for sufficient length of time. India should stop naming tibet as a part of china. diplomatic silence for now unless asked. say pok is Indian territory. Can create minor diplomatic gaffes saying tibet is independent, Indo-tibet border only etc by different officials etc later saying there were individual opinions etc etc. just to keep it boiling without overflow.

good to see somebody else say that too.

[ashi]

J-10B with WS-10B take off
[youtube]Gf0J-T-fmcg&feature=related[/youtube]

J-10A in recent airshow
[youtube]VAj3ykXpcqg&feature=related[/youtube]

[shiv]

J-10A in recent airshow

Nice. Nothing extraordinary in terms of aerobatics. But still nice. Thanks for posting.

[chackojoseph]

krisna,

You have summed the fault lines of China which India should be working on. However, India is not important for China. It will make more sense for china to keep India pushed down and doesn't rival it economically.

1. However I doubt that Missile/nuke combo will generate any concerns in Kremlin. They have long and elaborate experience of living under the shadow of nukes. And possess a credible defence mechanism.

1.a) Pakis are relatively completely nude, to what could be Russian response in terms of a missile counter offensive, leave the nukes. I mean even if no one fires anything, just raw data on paper will make kiyani wet his tailor made pant.

....

Just speculations

Technically you are saying a part of my argument. Moscow will engage Pakistan as a nuclear power. However, since you are dismissing the Paki nuke threat to Russia needs re look. Nuclear weapons are more of instruments of diplomacy and once used looses its potency. Pakis are looking at an insurance that Russia has limited options when attacking Pakistan. Pakis have meddled with Soviet Union and currently is actively engaged in sparring with US. They have honed skills.

[NRao]

CJ,

You are giving, IMHO, tooooo, way too much credit to the Pakis.

A huge part of the problem, which allows Pakistan to behave the way she does, is countries like the US and UK and even India.

Have you ever thought of the option of splitting PakiLand?

Pakis claim India is out to split Pakiland. IF true (and I really hope it is true) then it must be some other nation that is preventing India from acting more decisively. And, if that is true, one has to wonder why do educated politicians want to keep Pakiland stitched?

[chackojoseph]

^^^ Well, time will tell. Pakistan has been not able to break up India, but, has been able to keep it on toes. had not US stepped in on India's behalf, who knows what would have happened. Also, China has officially said that it will not allow Pakistan to split up or die. Pak - China are the nations to be watched as an alliance in CIS in coming decade.

[member_19648]

^^^ Well, time will tell. Pakistan has been not able to break up India, but, has been able to keep it on toes. had not US stepped in on India's behalf, who knows what would have happened. Also, China has officially said that it will not allow Pakistan to split up or die. Pak - China are the nations to be watched as an alliance in CIS in coming decade.

When did US step in on India's behalf?? As far as I know, India has defended herself all this time and maintained its national integrity and sovereignty. India is on her toes because she has no other choice, the choices clearly are: Destroy Pakistan, the root of all evil, or wait the time out till it destroys itself. The leadership in India is unfortunately wary of war and only wants to concentrate on economy and alleviating poverty. So, she has to wait the time out.

And as for China stating that it wouldn't let Paki break up, well, China says a lot of things including how prosperous is North Korea compared to South Korea. Disintegration of Paki is in no one's hand, it is their own undoing. And China just wants hegemony, Paki is just a pawn for them, aiding their overall strategic objective, but for it, they would be very happy to wash their hands off the global supplier of Terrorism and Polio.

[kmkraoind]

PRC has officially one-child policy for a long period of time, that means the little Chinese emperor has 2 parents and 4 grand parents to take care off (if he is married, add wife plus her 6 lineage). Moreover PRC cares very little for individual citizens and largesse of socialistic things like food, shelter and health care facilities are drying up fast . My question is what will be inclination of Chinese soldiers to fight with life, since they know all of his parents and grand parents will be left to their own fate without a compassionate caretaker. What are morale standards of Chinese soldiers.

[member_19648]

PRC has officially one-child policy for a long period of time, that means the little Chinese emperor has 2 parents and 4 grand parents to take care off (if he is married, add wife plus her 6 lineage). Moreover PRC cares very little for individual citizens and largesse of socialistic things like food, shelter and health care facilities are drying up fast . My question is what will be inclination of Chinese soldiers to fight with life, since they know all of his parents and grand parents will be left to their own fate without a compassionate caretaker. What are morale standards of Chinese soldiers.

Unfortunately propaganda is something that can bring the best or the ugliest of someone. The same logic can be applied to Paki suicide bombers or terrorists who have even more at stake like 5 bibis at home or 10 fathers at neighbour's home. So, they should be more jittery, but the case is otherwise.

[chackojoseph]

a) When did US step in on India's behalf?? As far as I know, India has defended herself all this time and maintained its national integrity and sovereignty. India is on her toes because she has no other choice, the choices clearly are: Destroy Pakistan, the root of all evil, or wait the time out till it destroys itself. The leadership in India is unfortunately wary of war and only wants to concentrate on economy and alleviating poverty. So, she has to wait the time out.

b) And as for China stating that it wouldn't let Paki break up, well, China says a lot of things including how prosperous is North Korea compared to South Korea. Disintegration of Paki is in no one's hand, it is their own undoing. And China just wants hegemony, Paki is just a pawn for them, aiding their overall strategic objective, but for it, they would be very happy to wash their hands off the global supplier of Terrorism and Polio.

a) You are right o all the counts. US has controlled Pakistan a lot. How will India destroy Pakistan in war? What is meant by it?

b) With China resurging, we might see a lot more support in future. In past they were not well placed.

[member_19648]

a) You are right o all the counts. US has controlled Pakistan a lot. How will India destroy Pakistan in war? What is meant by it?

No CJ, I might not be right on all counts, but my opinions are based on as far as I have read. The tanks that were used in 1971 war were of American and Chinese origin, so are 99% of arms of Pakistan even as of now. The US has come only now in Pakistan to fight Frankensteins which it itself propped up. Now when they are against their interest, off with their heads. I don't see the US achieve any kind of victory also in this regard. What kind of control? Could they control the Pakis from not sheltering Osama, or the top of the Al-Quaida brass in Pakiland, or could they control the Pakis to take action against the Hakkanis?? And to hope the US to control Paki so as to benefit India is just a fantasy. The US only knows how to serve its own interest. PERIOD. They are no one's father to control.

b) With China resurging, we might see a lot more support in future. In past they were not well placed.

I agree on this point. But then China is a mother rogue nation supporting all the children rogue nations. China is a bully and loves companies of bullies. They have done it in the past, when their economy wasn't strong, and they will continue doing that in future. I am sure the military planners in India, are assessing such threats and are aware of it.

[kmkraoind]

PRC has officially one-child policy for a long period of time, that means the little Chinese emperor has 2 parents and 4 grand parents to take care off (if he is married, add wife plus her 6 lineage). Moreover PRC cares very little for individual citizens and largesse of socialistic things like food, shelter and health care facilities are drying up fast . My question is what will be inclination of Chinese soldiers to fight with life, since they know all of his parents and grand parents will be left to their own fate without a compassionate caretaker. What are morale standards of Chinese soldiers.

Unfortunately propaganda is something that can bring the best or the ugliest of someone. The same logic can be applied to Paki suicide bombers or terrorists who have even more at stake like 5 bibis at home or 10 fathers at neighbour's home. So, they should be more jittery, but the case is otherwise.

But, every paki terrorist and his bibi has at least 5-6 siblings to take care off, if not there are tribal clan system and madarasas, but that is not in the case for an ordinary Chinese citizen

[ParGha]

PRC has officially one-child policy for a long period of time, that means the little Chinese emperor has 2 parents and 4 grand parents to take care off (if he is married, add wife plus her 6 lineage). Moreover PRC cares very little for individual citizens and largesse of socialistic things like food, shelter and health care facilities are drying up fast . My question is what will be inclination of Chinese soldiers to fight with life, since they know all of his parents and grand parents will be left to their own fate without a compassionate caretaker. What are morale standards of Chinese soldiers.

The Chinese planners calculate that even with the constraints you raise they can still pull off a quick punitive action with limited and clear political objectives, indeed this is the basis of their War Zone Campaign doctrine. The 1962 War was a perfect campaign in their books, and in contrast the the First Sino-Viet War was a big mistake.

The morale is boosted through Chinese economic growth and improvements in standards of living, infusion of modern weaponry and better training, and decreased PLA involvement in sticky domestic politics. In short, its good enough to tide them over a short and decisive war.

The factors that can dent this morale are: frustration or obfuscation of the pre-determined political goals (what constitutes victory and what's defeat?), spill-over of the conflict outside the planned area of conflict (opening new fronts), sudden and unexpected high-casualty engagements, and prolonged and indecisive conflict.

Assuming India also doesn't want an economically disasterous prolonged and indecisive conflict, its best bet is to shoot for the other three goals.

The first will require hard-headed realpolitik diplomats and senior bureaucrats who can deal with fast changing political moves and counter act; it will also require that the shrill Indian media be toned down to sane levels such that there is room for political manoeuver. Example: One of the greatest diplomatic achievements of 1965 War is the least known among the general populace -- it was the frustration of Mao's plans to open a second front in the east by simple diplomacy (Chang & Halliday, "Mao").

The second is already part of the IA's official doctrine (Active Defense - that is, counter-attack of the enemy on their own soil from any convenient front), but it needs further coordination with other two services. Example: The strategic impact of such a move is amply demonstrated in the case of IA opening the Punjab front in response to PA's OP Gibraltar.

The third is the most difficult to achieve because it requires a huge cultural shift within the armed forces and in the general society; away from penny-wise/pound-foolish manoeuver warfare, towards an economically sound attrition warfare. Theoretically an Indian General Zhukov can pre-empt any question of a two-front war by achieving a surprising and bloody victory. It would force the Chinese to go after easier prey in SE or N or C Asia, and leave India free to deal with the wolf in its front-yard. Example: The original Soviet commander's 1939 campaign in the Far East, which effectively convinced the Japanese to go after softer targets in the south, and bough the Soviets time to deal with the Nazis first.

[hnair]

PRC has officially one-child policy for a long period of time, that means the little Chinese emperor has 2 parents and 4 grand parents to take care off (if he is married, add wife plus her 6 lineage). Moreover PRC cares very little for individual citizens and largesse of socialistic things like food, shelter and health care facilities are drying up fast . My question is what will be inclination of Chinese soldiers to fight with life, since they know all of his parents and grand parents will be left to their own fate without a compassionate caretaker. What are morale standards of Chinese soldiers.

Unfortunately propaganda is something that can bring the best or the ugliest of someone. The same logic can be applied to Paki suicide bombers or terrorists who have even more at stake like 5 bibis at home or 10 fathers at neighbour's home. So, they should be more jittery, but the case is otherwise.

Good thinking kmkraoind-saar

Ivanev-saar, Chinese public has the disadvantage in that they are not as pure as pakis. So propaganda might work to attract a certain stupider type, but the fear of social security is immediate and when there is tension in the air, there will be lot of pajama shivers from the family members and advise to "play it safe". But interesting line of thought in itself.

[ShauryaT]

^^^ Well, time will tell. Pakistan has been not able to break up India, but, has been able to keep it on toes. had not US stepped in on India's behalf, who knows what would have happened. Also, China has officially said that it will not allow Pakistan to split up or die. Pak - China are the nations to be watched as an alliance in CIS in coming decade.

This is where India has to prove her mettle, if she has it in her.

[ShauryaT]

But then China is a mother rogue nation supporting all the children rogue nations. China is a bully and loves companies of bullies. They have done it in the past, when their economy wasn't strong, and they will continue doing that in future. I am sure the military planners in India, are assessing such threats and are aware of it.

There is another way to think about them. Not a bully, but a proud nation of a proud people, with the longest continuous nation-state in existence. It was the middle kingdom, who did not need anyone else. Outside nations, not linked with Chinese culture were "barbarians", in their view. Others in their periphery, were lesser barbarians depending upon the "level" of Chinese culture, they incorporated and/or the level of suzerainty it exercised over others.

This proud nation, was forced to submit and humiliated. This nation has paid through blood to be on the rise again and has defended its interests, tooth and nail against one and all. Yet, her borders are still not secure, with the far north east in Russian Control (ceded only in 1858), Taiwan (1949) aided by USA, South Tibet in Indian Control (1912?) and Outer Mongolia, propped by Russia and USA. So, it is only a victim. This is how they think, this is what the Chinese are fed. The 100 years of humiliation and then the struggle for independence and the cost they paid to be where they are today and headed. Our challenge is to either accept this version or face the wrath of soon to be the largest and most powerful nation on earth, which it always was!

What is our plan?