China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

All threads that are locked or marked for deletion will be moved to this forum. The topics will be cleared from this archive on the 1st and 16th of each month.
DavidD
BRFite
Posts: 918
Joined: 23 Jun 2010 04:08

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby DavidD » 13 Oct 2011 12:15

Too lazy to quote everything, so I'll just make some short replies:

1) Conventional submarines can be as quiet as a nuclear submarine...if they're running on batteries and moving at 2 knots. It's still much more effective to get nuclear submarines without even taking range into consideration.

2) A sea embargo won't work against China. Too many countries are trading too much with China, how many of them are willing to suffer the economic consequences for Taiwan? I bet even the Americans aren't. Even if they're willing, how long are they willing to go? The CCP won't survive a failed Taiwan invasion and they know that, are the U.S. and her allies as motivated to win?

3) The Yuan appreciated 20-30% from 2005 to 2011, how did the U.S. economy fare during that time period? How did the trade deficit change? How did the Chinese economy fare? Only an idiot would think that a CNY appreciation of another 20-30% would fix the American economy, which is why even the U.S. senators who passed this bill admit that it's symbolic because there's no way it'll get through the house. Heck, even Obama isn't on board.

4) Well Mr. Shiv, that was precisely the aim of Mao. He said quite frankly that, I'm paraphrasing, "one war ensures 50 years of peace on the border". From his and his fellow Chinese' perspective, the Indians were too arrogant, progressively encroaching on Tibet thinking that there would be no Chinese response, hence he decided to "teach a lesson". The lesson being, of course, humility, the opposite of arrogance. As you suggested, many Indians seem to have taken the lesson too hard, and humility turned into a feeling of inferiority plus some paradoxical indignant bravado(I say paradoxical, it's actually a pretty natural human response). Across the border, I think many Chinese took the success of the lesson too far, becoming arrogant in the process and was taught a lesson of their own against Vietnam in '79. With both sides now humbled, I seriously doubt that there's gonna be any sort of military conflict any time soon.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23387
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Austin » 13 Oct 2011 13:14

Some pictures of new SAM HQ-16 test , this is a variant of BUK-M1-2 and the chinese have adapted it with VLS cells and cold launch technique. Range is 40 km.

http://chinesemilitaryreview.blogspot.c ... ce-to.html
http://chinesemilitaryreview.blogspot.c ... ssile.html

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23387
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Austin » 13 Oct 2011 13:21

DavidD wrote:1) Conventional submarines can be as quiet as a nuclear submarine...if they're running on batteries and moving at 2 knots. It's still much more effective to get nuclear submarines without even taking range into consideration.


They can be much quiter than Nuclear submarine , since they can run on battery.

Just came across this pic of Adm Mullen visiting PLAN new Yuan class
http://chinesemilitaryreview.blogspot.c ... inese.html

3) The Yuan appreciated 20-30% from 2005 to 2011, how did the U.S. economy fare during that time period? How did the trade deficit change? How did the Chinese economy fare? Only an idiot would think that a CNY appreciation of another 20-30% would fix the American economy, which is why even the U.S. senators who passed this bill admit that it's symbolic because there's no way it'll get through the house. Heck, even Obama isn't on board.


Desperate times calls for desperate measures with 9 % unemployment could make any senator crazy ;)

rohitvats
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 7726
Joined: 08 Sep 2005 18:24
Location: Jatland

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby rohitvats » 13 Oct 2011 18:17

DavidD wrote: <SNIP> 4) From his and his fellow Chinese' perspective, the Indians were too arrogant, progressively encroaching on Tibet thinking that there would be no Chinese response, hence he decided to "teach a lesson". <SNIP>


Oh! how quant...you know what, we have a saying in Hindi which roughly means, "robber admonishing the policeman". The above perspective actually fits quite well.

svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby svinayak » 13 Oct 2011 23:02

shiv wrote: We are intellectuals. Defeatologists. We know defeat and can smell it from a mile when we learn the name of our adversary.

:lol: super

Craig Alpert
BRFite
Posts: 1440
Joined: 09 Oct 2009 17:36
Location: Behind Enemy Lines

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Craig Alpert » 14 Oct 2011 06:09


kapilrdave
BRFite
Posts: 1566
Joined: 17 Nov 2008 13:10

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby kapilrdave » 14 Oct 2011 09:40

DavidD wrote:From his and his fellow Chinese' perspective, the Indians were too arrogant, progressively encroaching on Tibet thinking that there would be no Chinese response, hence he decided to "teach a lesson". The lesson being, of course, humility, the opposite of arrogance. As you suggested, many Indians seem to have taken the lesson too hard, and humility turned into a feeling of inferiority plus some paradoxical indignant bravado(I say paradoxical, it's actually a pretty natural human response).


Mao used dirty tricks against India and Nehru was fool enough. At that time Nehru Never ever thought of even defending the Indian borders, let alone encroaching in. Regarding the lesson, well India has atleast learned the lesson to not to trust China in any case. No good words can bluff India anymore. And it is this lesson that keeps us on our tows against China and the same thing will deter China from doing any misadventure in foreseeable future.

ashi
BRFite
Posts: 456
Joined: 19 Feb 2009 13:30

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby ashi » 14 Oct 2011 11:22

kapilrdave wrote:Mao used dirty tricks against India and Nehru was fool enough. At that time Nehru Never ever thought of even defending the Indian borders, let alone encroaching in. Regarding the lesson, well India has atleast learned the lesson to not to trust China in any case.


What about Nehru's forward policy and "kick the Chinese out"?

neerajb
BRFite
Posts: 830
Joined: 24 Jun 2008 14:18
Location: Delhi, India.

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby neerajb » 14 Oct 2011 13:57

OT : Shiv your piskological posts are always a delight to read. Why don't you compile all your thoughts in a book on this Indian trait and publish it. That way you can broadcast your message to a broader audience and it is more permanant then posts on BR.

Cheers....

SureshP
BRFite
Posts: 256
Joined: 10 Apr 2002 11:31

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby SureshP » 14 Oct 2011 14:17

[youtube]8PNQ8Ovp6NA&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Fighter jet crashes at China air show

(AFP) – 5 hours ago

BEIJING — A fighter jet plunged to the ground and exploded as it took part in an air display at a show in northern China Friday, organisers and state media said.

China's state-run television CCTV showed images of the Chinese-made plane falling from the sky and bursting into flames when it hit the ground at the show in Shaanxi province.

The pilot managed to eject and was seen parachuting down, but a journalist at the scene said the parachute had not fully opened and it was unclear whether the pilot was injured when he landed.

He added there were no casualties on the ground.

It was unclear what type of fighter plane was involved in the crash. The official Xinhua news agency said it was a two-seat, fighter-bomber Flying Leopard -- or JH-7 -- a model officially launched in December 1988.

But CCTV said it was a Xiaolong ("Fierce Dragon") fighter jet -- or FC-1 -- which is the result of a joint Sino-Pakistani development programme that started in 1999.

"The plane had some malfunction and an investigation team has been sent to the scene," said a spokeswoman for the China International General Aviation Convention, the organiser of the air show held in Xian's Pucheng Neifu airport.

She told AFP she did not know what type of plane it was, adding she had no further details as the scene of the incident was far from the main air show venue.

Reporters for the official Xinhua news agency, who were present at the air display, said they saw heavy smoke billowing from the ground after the crash, but added the show was continuing.

According to the People's Daily newspaper, some 100 foreign and domestic planes are on display at the air show, and around 30 aircraft are putting on displays.

Hungarian, Swedish, US and Lithuanian aerobatic teams have been invited to participate in the three-day show, which is expected to attract around 100,000 people, it added.

The accident is the latest to hit China's air force.

In January 2007, a military aircraft crashed in a southern Chinese city after a mid-air explosion but the pilot survived, according to press reports.

In June of the previous year, an early warning aircraft crashed in China's eastern Anhui province, killing all 40 people on board -- an accident described as the "worst air disaster in the history of China's air force".

Two months before the Anhui crash, a jet fighter came down in the southern island of Hainan after a mid-air explosion.

And in 2004, a Chinese F-7 fighter jet on a training mission over central Hubei province crashed into civilian housing, resulting in the death of a child on the ground.


http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ipiOsi0Oxz9usRfmXyVa0mf1RMCg?docId=CNG.4f5b2edb570be5e984b75aa64ea69735.501

DavidD
BRFite
Posts: 918
Joined: 23 Jun 2010 04:08

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby DavidD » 14 Oct 2011 14:39

Austin wrote:
DavidD wrote:1) Conventional submarines can be as quiet as a nuclear submarine...if they're running on batteries and moving at 2 knots. It's still much more effective to get nuclear submarines without even taking range into consideration.


They can be much quiter than Nuclear submarine , since they can run on battery.

Just came across this pic of Adm Mullen visiting PLAN new Yuan class
http://chinesemilitaryreview.blogspot.c ... inese.html

3) The Yuan appreciated 20-30% from 2005 to 2011, how did the U.S. economy fare during that time period? How did the trade deficit change? How did the Chinese economy fare? Only an idiot would think that a CNY appreciation of another 20-30% would fix the American economy, which is why even the U.S. senators who passed this bill admit that it's symbolic because there's no way it'll get through the house. Heck, even Obama isn't on board.


Desperate times calls for desperate measures with 9 % unemployment could make any senator crazy ;)


Yea, but you can only move at like 2 knots if you're running on battery!

DavidD
BRFite
Posts: 918
Joined: 23 Jun 2010 04:08

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby DavidD » 14 Oct 2011 14:44

kapilrdave wrote:
DavidD wrote:From his and his fellow Chinese' perspective, the Indians were too arrogant, progressively encroaching on Tibet thinking that there would be no Chinese response, hence he decided to "teach a lesson". The lesson being, of course, humility, the opposite of arrogance. As you suggested, many Indians seem to have taken the lesson too hard, and humility turned into a feeling of inferiority plus some paradoxical indignant bravado(I say paradoxical, it's actually a pretty natural human response).


Mao used dirty tricks against India and Nehru was fool enough. At that time Nehru Never ever thought of even defending the Indian borders, let alone encroaching in. Regarding the lesson, well India has atleast learned the lesson to not to trust China in any case. No good words can bluff India anymore. And it is this lesson that keeps us on our tows against China and the same thing will deter China from doing any misadventure in foreseeable future.


Well, I'm not gonna debate about who's right or wrong, neither of us is gonna convince the other I'm sure. However, I think you're a bit too naive if you thought India's leaders are stupid enough to trust anyone, not just the Chinese, but anyone.

Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13262
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Lalmohan » 14 Oct 2011 20:13

Shiv-ji

you asked about air crashes in china...Telegraph - Flying Leopard crash at airshow

prithvi

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby prithvi » 14 Oct 2011 20:46

Lalmohan wrote:Shiv-ji

you asked about air crashes in china...Telegraph - Flying Leopard crash at airshow


here is the video---FBC-1 or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xian_JH-7

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Singha » 14 Oct 2011 21:54

glad the pilot made it out, but the accident looks kind of peculiar as the plane seemed to be just taking a banked turn and not trying anything wild...just seems to drop its nose and plunge.

SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 36415
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby SaiK » 15 Oct 2011 03:48

totally stalled!

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby shiv » 15 Oct 2011 04:51

Singha wrote:glad the pilot made it out, but the accident looks kind of peculiar as the plane seemed to be just taking a banked turn and not trying anything wild...just seems to drop its nose and plunge.

The plane yaws to the right and the nose drops. Looks like the controls suddenly froze - some kind of serious mechanical dysfunction like the rudder moving right and getting stuck. In fact even in the nose down free fall attitude (final seconds) the nose is yawed to the right - that rudder has done some serious g**dmasti.

Guddu
BRFite
Posts: 962
Joined: 01 Dec 2008 06:22

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Guddu » 15 Oct 2011 05:37

The official television said it was Xiaolong jet, which was the result of a Sino-Pakistan cooperation in aircraft manufacturing.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/Fighter-Jet-crashes-in-China-air-show/articleshow/10356450.cms

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby shiv » 15 Oct 2011 05:56

The information available in the usual English internet sources about thie "FBC-1/ JH-7" is suspect. It is allegedly a late 1970s and early 80s design, but is claimed in some places to have FBW controls. That measn that the original likely analog controls have been overhauled to produce a new aircraft.

Some sources say that it can carry a 5000 kg weapon payload, and Wiki says 9000 kg.

The plane is said to be underpowered - with 2 China cloned copies of the Rolls Royce Spey engine that powered the F-4 Phantom. If the engine is "licensed" as is claimed - I am dead sure that Poodlestan is not getting any royalty from Cheena.

Image

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Singha » 15 Oct 2011 06:03

afaik it uses original RR spey engines which china purchased several hundred sets of. ofcourse might be replaced in future if china mass produces a engine of same dimension but better quality.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby shiv » 15 Oct 2011 06:45

Older Speys are noisy gas guzzlers

Spey engines from RR website
Check the t/w ratio and presure ratio
http://www.rolls-royce.com/defence/prod ... s/spey.jsp

Code: Select all

Specification   Spey 807   Spey 250/251
Thrust (lbf)   11,030   11,995
Bypass ratio   0.93   0.64
Pressure ratio   16.3   20.2
Length (in)   96.7   117
Diameter (in)   32.5   32.5
Basic weight (lb)   2,456   2,740
Compressor   4LP, 12HP   5LP, 12HP
Turbine   2HP, 2LP   2HP, 2LP


Jagan
Webmaster BR
Posts: 3032
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Earth @ Google.com
Contact:

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Jagan » 15 Oct 2011 08:06

Dont know about the Jet but thats one fantastic ejection seat/system in action.. AC going straight down, pilot ejecting parallel to teh ground..and surviving..amazing..

andy B
BRFite
Posts: 1598
Joined: 05 Jun 2008 11:03
Location: Gora Paki

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby andy B » 15 Oct 2011 08:38

Shiv ji, IIRC the spey's were a pain in ze bum onlee for the raf. Fitting them speys to the phantoms for the raf ended up with a jet which was mucho more expensive than the usaf versions powered by them GE J79s and was underpowered at the same time :oops: not to mention i am sure they had to muck around with the intakes ityadi to fit em speys in....

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby shiv » 15 Oct 2011 08:53

Jagan wrote:Dont know about the Jet but thats one fantastic ejection seat/system in action.. AC going straight down, pilot ejecting parallel to teh ground..and surviving..amazing..


Jagan garu second pilot "missing"

SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 36415
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby SaiK » 15 Oct 2011 08:56

coming to think of under-powered fighter, the j20's fate seems to be on the similar prediction path - going by the size and weight, for that copied saturn engines.

akimalik
BRFite
Posts: 133
Joined: 14 Apr 2010 11:27

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby akimalik » 15 Oct 2011 10:52

shiv wrote:rudder moving right and getting stuck


1st the a/c rolls to the right, then it starts to roll to the left (maybe the pilot was try to correct the roll).
did the pilot / wso eject? if the wso ejected, could it be that the pilot was incapacitated ... which is why the a/c was hardly maneuvering vigorously?

darshhan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2564
Joined: 12 Dec 2008 11:52

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby darshhan » 15 Oct 2011 12:05

China's network of tunnels for hiding nukes

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 360135.cms

A leading US lawmaker who fears budget cuts could delay modernizing the US nuclear arsenal voiced concern on Friday about an extensive tunnel complex designed to house Chinese nuclear missiles.

"This network of tunnels could be in excess of 5,000 kilometers (3,110 miles), and is used to transport nuclear weapons and forces," said Michael Turner, who chairs a House Armed Services Committee panel focusing on strategic weapons and other security program


Is this true?Or are Americans hyping it up?

DavidD
BRFite
Posts: 918
Joined: 23 Jun 2010 04:08

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby DavidD » 15 Oct 2011 12:16

The WSO ejected, the pilot didn't, nobody is sure of the cause yet. There's a picture of the plane literally less than a second before it hit the ground, and you could see that the pilot's cockpit was still intact so it didn't appear like he attempted to eject.

akimalik
BRFite
Posts: 133
Joined: 14 Apr 2010 11:27

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby akimalik » 15 Oct 2011 12:38

DavidD wrote:the pilot didn't


Condolences to the pilot's family.
Do keep us posted on the findings of the crash.

Don
BRFite
Posts: 412
Joined: 09 Dec 2002 12:31

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Don » 15 Oct 2011 12:45

darshhan wrote:China's network of tunnels for hiding nukes

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 360135.cms

A leading US lawmaker who fears budget cuts could delay modernizing the US nuclear arsenal voiced concern on Friday about an extensive tunnel complex designed to house Chinese nuclear missiles.

"This network of tunnels could be in excess of 5,000 kilometers (3,110 miles), and is used to transport nuclear weapons and forces," said Michael Turner, who chairs a House Armed Services Committee panel focusing on strategic weapons and other security program


Is this true?Or are Americans hyping it up?

Thats old news. The Chinese built those tunnels decades ago as far as I know.

Don
BRFite
Posts: 412
Joined: 09 Dec 2002 12:31

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Don » 15 Oct 2011 12:50

http://in.news.yahoo.com/russias-growin ... 07002.html

Russia's growing ties with China matter of concern: BJP MP

By Indo Asian News Service | IANS – Thu, Oct 13, 2011....tweet0Share0EmailPrint.....New Delhi, Oct 13 (IANS) Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's recent visit to China has been noted in strategic circles in India, with a BJP MP saying Russia's increasing cooperation with China and Pakistan should be 'a matter of concern' to India.

'In a post-cold war era, Russia's increasing cooperation with China and Pakistan is a development that India can't ignore and its implications on our security must be a matter of concern for us,' Tarun Vijay, national spokesperson of the Bharatiya Janata Party and a Rajya Sabha member, said here in a statement.

Alluding to Putin's just concluded high profile three-day visit to China, Vijay said that India should keep 'a vigilant watch over changing geopolitical equations'.

During the visit, Russia and China struck 16 economic and trade cooperation deals worth more than $7 billion in new energy, mining, machinery, vehicle, electronics and agricultural sectors.

'The guiding principle should be - trust Russia but keep a watch,' cautioned Vijay.

'In this background, we find UPA government's attitude completely oblivious of the ground situation. It is in a self-denial mode, paralysed by domestic pressures and survival exercises, failing to strengthen new India-interest-centric positions in foreign affairs,' he said.

India's ties with Russia have steadily accelerated in the last decade, with Moscow still accounting for over 60 per cent of India's military hardware imports.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby shiv » 15 Oct 2011 14:11

akimalik wrote:
shiv wrote:rudder moving right and getting stuck


1st the a/c rolls to the right, then it starts to roll to the left (maybe the pilot was try to correct the roll).
did the pilot / wso eject? if the wso ejected, could it be that the pilot was incapacitated ... which is why the a/c was hardly maneuvering vigorously?


The plane first yaws and then rolls. I think I saw a puff of smoke on processing the video but I am not sure. Maybe unrecoverable low altitude flame out of starboard engine from a bird ingestion. The plane hits the ground in just 6 seconds. If it was just gravity (no power) then the plane was ~500 feet above the ground. But it looks like it was descending anyway when it went out of control.

Rahul M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 17016
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 21:09
Location: Skies over BRFATA
Contact:

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Rahul M » 15 Oct 2011 14:28

I am not sure if it's a puff of smoke reflection of the sun. the aircraft literally dropped like a stone, jammed control is one possibility. the poor pilot was probably trying to recover it.

Prasad
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7489
Joined: 16 Nov 2007 00:53
Location: Chennai

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby Prasad » 15 Oct 2011 21:49

Looks like a bird hit and the starboard engine flames out? Its a hazy cloudy day. So dont really think its a reflection flash. But it sure did plummet very quickly. Sad.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby shiv » 17 Oct 2011 07:15

DavidD wrote:
4) Well Mr. Shiv, that was precisely the aim of Mao. He said quite frankly that, I'm paraphrasing, "one war ensures 50 years of peace on the border". From his and his fellow Chinese' perspective, the Indians were too arrogant, progressively encroaching on Tibet thinking that there would be no Chinese response, hence he decided to "teach a lesson". The lesson being, of course, humility, the opposite of arrogance. As you suggested, many Indians seem to have taken the lesson too hard, and humility turned into a feeling of inferiority plus some paradoxical indignant bravado(I say paradoxical, it's actually a pretty natural human response). Across the border, I think many Chinese took the success of the lesson too far, becoming arrogant in the process and was taught a lesson of their own against Vietnam in '79. With both sides now humbled, I seriously doubt that there's gonna be any sort of military conflict any time soon.


I have bolded what I think is a very interesting statement, coming as it is from a person who posts the Chinese perspective. in this perspective there is confidence that China will not initiate conflict, and confidence that India too would be unlikely to initiate conflict.

If I compare this with the view expressed by the majority of Indians on here I get the following general "Indian perspective". The Indian perspective is "India will not initiate conflict. But China may initiate conflict."

Put the two together:

The Chinese says: "India will not start war. China will not start war"
The Indian says : "India will not start war. China will start war"

Don't you think that is very interesting folks? Neither Chinese nor Indians expect India to initiate war.

Now why don't Indians feel that India will initiate war? If I take the usual statements ion this forum as the "Indian viewpoint", India will not initiate war because we see ourselves as too weak and as losers.

But why would a Chinese feel that India would not initiate war? Could it be because they too understand that India is too weak and too scared? Or too humbled and humiliated? If this is true then this is exactly the time for China to impose war on India. As long as China sees fear among Indians in general as we frequently express all over this forum, it would be a good time to impose war on India. Provided of course that India is really weak, and that the "weakness" is not merely Indian dhoti shivering that does not reflect military capability.

I make these observations in the light of an email entitled "Ominous prediction" I received which is guaranteed to make patriotic Indians shit in their langotis instantly. I quote, in part:

The purpose of my email is to convey what I got from "usually reliable sources" quoting input from people at the top of Jewish establishment quoting military people like "generals etc"

The blunt assessment that " a combined Paki-Chinese attack on India is very likely in 2012" , and the cheerful assessment is that "India get their asses kicked". Their assessment is that the Chinese objective is NOT to grab Arunachal etc but mainly the usual "put Indians in their places"

Don't know if this has been discussed in the usual places


Also in the email
My best guess is that sources are combined US/Israeli, but they have in the past been extremely accurate in strategic predictions...

All this gels in well with an earlier prediction of Chinese attack before 2014.
Last edited by shiv on 17 Oct 2011 08:00, edited 2 times in total.


shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby shiv » 17 Oct 2011 07:54

One would have to assume at first that the Chinese are not stupid and that any action they initiate will be calculated to serve their interests in the long term.

A simple pointless border war with India as a show of "muscle flexing" is likely to have the long term consequences of making every country more alert about China and make them more ready to resist China militarily, knowing that Chinese have a propensity to start a military confrontation.

So any war initiated by China will have to have some definite long term goal. One possibility that comes to mind is to neutralise India and the US in one go and take the pressure off Pakistan in a long term attempt at imposing their own style of hegemony on Afghanistan and change the nature of the world order in that region.

It is obvious to anyone who watches the US and Pakistan that the US is asking Pakistan to move forces away from the Indian border to the North-west. Pakistan feels vulnerable against India and the US is asking India to reduce its forces against Pakistan to reduce Pakistan's feeling of vulnerability. However this has not happened to a great enough extent to make Pakistan comfortable against India.

A combined Pakistan-China attack on India in the west and a Chinese attack in the east would stretch Indian forces and make them weaker against Pakistan. But the border action itself would force the US to stop insisting that Pakistan take action against the Taliban - because of a border war with India. That would force the US into a situation where it would basically have to pull out from Af Pak because of a loss of logistic support from Pakistan.

But would the US do that? For example. Would the US enter such a war on India's side. Unlikely. In fact they may actually bolster Pakistani forces to get more Pakistani cooperation to keep their forces safe in Afghanistan.

If the gamble pays off, India may have lost territory in both the east and west. And the US would be skiing downhill. But there are some problems with this scenario. India is unlikely to meekly lose territory in Kasmhir. India will push into Pakjab while holding Chinese forces in the East. And if India promises the US with bases and logistics and air support to supply Afghanistan during a war, any Chinese action of shooting down an American asset would widen China's problems. So things are not necessarily so straightforward.

i would start looking for signs of Chinese mobilization.

jrjrao
BRFite
Posts: 869
Joined: 01 Jul 2001 11:31

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby jrjrao » 17 Oct 2011 08:28

MJ Akbar has a take:

Tilting at the tilt of history
http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2011/10 ... s-in-arms/
On October 12, India signed agreements with “maritime neighbour” Vietnam to deepen strategic ties, and, in a rebuff to China, continue oil exploration in the South China Sea. Vietnam is the only country in four decades to have silenced China on the battlefield, forcing Beijing to withdraw from its territory after a 17-day war in 1979. Vietnam did not defeat France and America in order to succumb to China.

Today, emotion has been squeezed out of Indian policy, making it leaner and hopefully a bit meaner. Even at the height of Indo-Soviet amity in 1971, Delhi side-stepped Brother Brezhnev’s bear hug. The cool Vajpayee-Singh cultivation of America is bearing reward now, nudging ahead quiet partnerships. There is virtual understanding between India, Vietnam, Japan and the US in the blow-hot-blow-cold relationship with China. They are drawing a line on water.

In 1962, America was ready to send air force squadrons with bombs and pilots to the Himalayas. The key question since 1962 has been: Which nation will support India in a second India-China conflict? The answer is emerging in the Indian Ocean and Pacific.

As the wealth of the world begins to rotate back to resource-hungry Asia, confrontation and cooperation will be calibrated by both long-term perceptions and immediate needs. We will learn, over the next decade, which nations have understood the tilt of history. Fervour is not conducive to comprehension; far better to be cool. Delhi is getting good at cool.

vasu_ray
BRFite
Posts: 550
Joined: 30 Nov 2008 01:06

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby vasu_ray » 17 Oct 2011 08:31

As India's defenses are strengthening the Chi-Pak combine might be seeing a closing window, which is where the timeline fits in I guess

Instead of just focusing on the military goals in the Tibetan theater in the 1-3 week time window, we should be projecting conventional means that can reach their rich coastal industrial belt as a means of deterrence

Shaurya system should be launched from both the Naval ships and the C-130j; whatever means exists today, we should diversify

RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5180
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Postby RoyG » 17 Oct 2011 09:08

I'm thinking an attack will come next year. I agree with Vasu and Shiv that their window is slowly closing and the US wont do much for us. Our goal should be to totally incapacitate the PA within a week. We will probably lose land in the East but our goal should be to keep turkey neck. This isn't going to be like 62. They will try to cut us off from the SE for good and completely embarrass us. We will also have to keep an eye on Nepal and make sure the Bangladeshis dont act funny. POK will probably be in Chinese hands. Messy.


Return to “Trash Can Archive”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 34 guests