Guys, thanks! I have just been following their programs for a while and my belief is that to compete we have to chart our own path. Following them on theirs will be sub-optimal.
Ashi wrote:1) Made in China is low quality
2) China buying all of her advance military technology from RU and Israel, including J-20 and AESA. China is mainly doing ctrl-c and ctrl-v work
3) Even China buying her military technology, those stuff will only work but won't work great. J-20 no match for AMCA.
4) India has high standard unlike China, that's why Tejas MK1 is not inducted yet. India MIC has provided reasonable modern systems in the last two decades.
5) India will outcompete and outfight China. Don't worry, have curry!
Ashi, why the angst?
Lets address your claims one by one..
1. Made in China is low quality...
Well, it depends on what you define quality as. Because as you see, one can define it in two ways - the actual level of the item itself, in terms of sophistication and second, whether it can do the job it promises across the board, in terms of mass produced items, which of course brings us to the common perception of "quality in manufacture"..
But the first, the overall ranking of where the item is in the scheme of things is pretty important too. And here, its a fact that while China has come a long way, its nowhere near what is on the open market, let alone whats available to the developer nation. For instance, the JSF as and when it arrives will have integrated systems on board that dwarf those on the J-10, 20 etc. Its not about just the platform really but the constant innovation into specific subsystems. So yes, you'll have an AESA radar on the J-20 whereas the JSF will have a 4Gen system with more advanced modules with dense packing. Stuff like that matters...
There is also the issue of quality fade. Lets face it, production in China is having issues and the rampant political interference in the structure across all levels means that there will be issues in solving problems efficiently.
Bottomline - your systems work, but all I am saying is that they don't work at the level of sophistication, the systems made by other nations are at. If you take an Abrams tank and compare it to the Type 99 whatever, the former still has the edge in its latest upgraded variant versus the obvious issues with the latter from its warsaw pact style design heritage (carousel autoloader, lack of ammo separation et al). And there is the point. You guys are still copying other folk's platforms and ideas. It leads to rapid development, true but is not best in class. And since you have not made this move, how are you going to produce at that level consistently, since the arms embargo has ensured those who made the transition will not work with you at the platform level. Basically, you are limited to western subsystems and russian integration expertise - while these can take you so far...its not at the level of having the ability to integrate a Rafale AND a PAK-FA..
2. No, you are making your own stuff, but lets face it, you have taken a LOT of help along the way, and in contrast to India or other nations, you have not been open about it. That Taikonaut stuff and Russian assistance for example. There are western imprints all over the Chinese military apparatus, the real modern stuff that is. There's no shame in this, but it seems you guys dont do nuance.
3. Depends on what great is, and thats the point I was making. Your stuff probably meets the minimum requirements set by PLAAF commanders but then again, apart from Pakistan when is the last time your lot actually saw what the rest of the worlds integrated platforms are capable of? Indian pilots through the MMRCA saw the best of todays planes compete. They know what these can and cannot do. Those guys will pass on their lessons to people making local programs and set the standard. Basically, look if you are the leader and spend trillions to do so, like the US or Cold War era Russia, then you are at the top of the pile and others look towards you. Otherwise, there are limits to the isolationist approach, currently imposed on China (justifiably) thanks to arms embargos. Your guys are reading about sensor fusion in technical papers, they can even make their own unique stuff..but point is the actual understanding of how that works in an existing platform with different missions as on the Rafale is not available to them..
As regards J-20, I do think the FGFA will be superior to it, not the AMCA. The AMCA will be in a different weight class, which means range and payload limitations. But yes, if India plays its cards right, the AMCA can have advantages in terms of sophistication over the J-20, but I'd rather not speculate. The FGFA on the other hand, will be ahead of the J-20 in several criteria, IMO - especially aero performance and sensor sophistication. Russia has a significant lead in both fields. There is still talk about purchasing S-400's and it is S-300s which are the baseline of the Chinese AD system. Just shows, all said & done, which nation's systems are still the gold standard..
4. This part is true, and yes, Indian user's standards are higher, because unlike China, India is not subject to an arms embargo. So its services will only induct the best of what they can get. In India, the services don't regard giving the national industry orders as some sort of given goal, they have a focus on winning conflicts. Now, you can well argue this vision is blinkered (and I'd agree, and its changing as they too are beginning to support industry), but they will not compromise on requirements which are often derived from international standards. In a recent seminar, a senior Army functionary, made the exact same point -"we will not compromise standards, standards will be based on our requirements and what is available to us from the market" etc. to paraphrase what he said.
5. Well, if India plays its cards right, it can indeed outcompete China, or more accurately match China's moves without having to spend itself into trouble (like Pakistan did in trying to match India). The point is of the big picture. There are already significant moves underway to steadily move India from its traditional pacifist mindset, weapons are bad, peace is all...to its more traditional civilizational outlook towards what weapons mean! And I must say, China has a lot to do with this. First 1962, then the arming of Pakistan and now the border obnoxiousness...in short, China has forced its neighbours to junk their pacifist ideals and become realists.
wong wrote:1. There is no economics in the research and development for military programs. The only difference between Lockheed Martin and AVIC is private profit-public loss vs. public/state profit-public/state loss. The cost-plus 15% guarantees Lockheed will make money every time regardless of delays or huge overruns. General Dynamics still made money from huge failures like the Crusader and the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle. And the F-35 could be delayed another decade and Lockheed will still make plenty of money on the program for its shareholders.
There are obviously economics in military programs, because if a nation spends too much on its military as versus keeping its revenue generators intact and growing them, plus on growing its quality of life indices...it is headed on a path to disaster. The US can afford its high end thingmajigs because of the scale at which they operate. They are a developed nation and need to sustain, as versus build.
Countries like India, with huge and varied requirements, need to optimize.
Further, what you don't understand is that the US believes in disruptive technology - its by now baked into their MIC. There are several reasons for this, the cynical note that it keeps the MIC happy with heavily funded programs. The less cynical also note that it makes sure the US industry, which is now heavily dependent on the MIC for unique, local manufacturing capabilities - which span all forms of engineering (compsci, electrical & electronics, aerospace, mechanical) remains at the cutting edge. Both are true. The third is that these capabilities are asked for by the user, the US military, which by now is amongst the most technology savvy forces in the world. They embrace technology because it allows them to fight a war on their terms. The sort of innovations that they pursue in terms of a)locating the enemy b) fixing the enemy c)maneuvering for the fight ....are unmatched.
Holding up a few showpiece projects is fine, but the US is learning from its procurement boondoggles. In several homeland security projects, the transition to fixed price contracts has already occurred. If the budget pie were to shrink, then the US would actually go for less ambitious programs. I'd daresay, you in China would NOT be happy. Because then, the US will make full use of cost effective incremental upgrades - which even though its not cool or sufficiently advanced by their MIC requirements - is something they have mastered. Take a look at how the Aegis has developed, or the umpteen blocks of the Viper (F-16) or the Eagle (F-15). If they get into the same developing country style more bang for the buck mentality, they'll probably field more platforms and their recapitalization effort may actually speed up!
Bottomline - there are economics to military programs, which is why military spend as a % of GDP or one tracking mechanism or the other (e.g. spend as a % of the national budget) is closely tracked by analysts. And second, the US really operates on its own level based on its economic strengths, superpower aspirations & requirements. Using them as an example for other nations to emulate is fraught with problems.
2. The Indian system is really the worst of both worlds. Invest huge sums in an indigenous program and then eventually import it from foreign defense companies anyway. The list is huge, but all the jet and basic trainers is but one example.
This pretty much shows that you have completely misunderstood how the Indian defense set up is working. India is dual sourcing. It is importing and making it on its own. For pretty much every program where it has industrial capability, it has imported a few items for partial fill for its requirements, rest it is looking within. In the process, what it makes on its own also improves to a new benchmark. Lets look at ESM fits. India made the Ajanta fit, decided to move to the next gen Ellora, in between it imported Israeli suites as an interim, Ellora was upgraded & these are the new standard. Similarly, in radars, for each class of radars the IAF is using for its Ground Based net, there is a local radar in development or ordered already to supplant/complement the limited numbers for other systems ordered already (LLTR, MPR, LLLWR). In some cases - eg the Rohini/Rajendra etc - they are unique and are the only ones in their category meeting specific requirements. Helicopters - the LCH order split between HAL & a foreign vendor and India will likely insist on offsets for the foreign order as well. The examples are so many...one just has to put a frame of reference and understand what is going on..
Now, India is moving to the next phase, in that it is insisting that even all the orders for the interim systems it places - either come with offsets (MPR order with Elta) or are joint ventures (MTA, FGFA) as well. Net, the aerospace & defence industry in India is set to boom, and that too driven by organic orders.
In other cases, where there is ample time to have a proper program in place, these have been moved to the "make" category, as reports note, with 180 programs in line & large ones already lined up.
While there are delays in decision making, the progress made is substantial and is well on the way to creating a far more rational MIC, than that operating purely with the management of the state.
3. The arms embargo has been the best thing to ever happen to the Chinese defense industry. I hope it stays for another decade.
There are advantages to an embargo in terms of local sourcing. But lets face it, it did cut off technology to China at a crucial time, which is good for all of China's neighbours. And, the more China rises, the longer the embargo shall remain in place. What China was very stupid about, was its overt bellicose posture on everything from Spratly to the Indo-Chinese border issue ...and many others, plus overtly challenging the US on many issues. Its basically set the warning bells ringing in every capital about Chinese intentions. And in turn the US, which leads all the Arms sanctions groups has also become wary of Chinese military build up..
4. The Chinese space program was founded by Hsue-shen Tsien, the co-founder of JPL. He was one of the original guys that debriefed von Braun, so China got its start in the space program the same as the Soviets and Americans.
Thats irrelevant.. Just because a program is started the same time, with one or two biggies does not mean its at the same level as that in another nation which has had a far better economic and industrial base to leverage, with its attendant human resources. China may have started many things but they all went nowhere fast thanks to Mao and his little red book inspired purges..and lets face it, Chinese industry was stagnating and it was Deng who opened up industry and got in foreign technology to provide the impetus on which "todays China" is built.