arnab wrote: krisna wrote:
All my posts to you are related mainly to the polls as you initially based your independence part on the polls. Now you are backing up with data from other sources which every brfite knows.
KV has 90% unemployment is from the polls.It is not my conclusion.
your conclusion that KMs has decisively opted for independence is based on an opinion from the polls. You appear to be consistently inconsistent.
Sir ji - thoda dimag lagane ka. The poll says 90 % (or 87%) of the people consider unemployment to be a major issue (it is a poll). It does not mean that there is 90% unemployment.
The previous posts and the content were known to both of us( myself and somnath). Point noted.
As an analogy - if there was a poll across India about what is the most critical problem facing India. And assume 50% of them answered 'Kashmir'. Does that mean 50% of Indians are kashmiris?
IMO —thoda dimag lagane ka to you also as somehow it does not jell with the above. I would not like to go into details as it is irrelevant.
brihaspati wrote:It will be a most curious argument indeed - if say 90% of polled opinion saw unemployment as the critical problem if in reality unemployment was far less than 90%.
If prosperity alone is not deterministic for separatsim, or that it cannot manifest its efffects without other factors mediating it - then propsperity has no reflection [not analyzable anyway] on separatism.
IMO It is very noticeable about some incongruity in the polls. Hence was referring to it frequently along with other issues particularly mentioned by KMs in KV. It does not tally with what is known to outside world. Either KMs lied in the polls or pollsters lied or what the outside world knows is a lie. (or what they understood was false)
Just wondering if it was done by Indian pollsters it would have been likely discredited. In fact the polls are somewhat favorable to India considering the international attention J&K has got over the years.
As we don’t have any polls other than the lastest chatham polls recently, can we say with any reasonable certainty that KMs want independence- what to make of the elections,elected govt. what about the irrelevance of hurri rats. What about militancy which is rejected by mango Indians( kashmiris are Indians) as evidenced by declining incidents of violence.
somnath wrote:1. Military dominance over the armed groups
2. Irrelevance of the movement
3. Getting global support for the position
Agree with the above.
One of the factors working all over the above 3 points mentioned is the economic growth of India. This has helped in multiple ways along with relative increased gap between India and TSP as terroristan is committing soosai. This has increased the costs on 3.5 friends. They are coming closer to India due to economic growth and better prospects for their countries something like mercenaries.
India has to court them and get some influence over them vis avis TSP. If and only when the benefits outweigh the support to TSP then the TSP will be in deep sh*t.( now it is barely above). unless TSP becomes friends with India- of course it is unheard off in this present universe.
as TSP will cease to exist from that time onwards.
Sporadic protests like when ombaba came are one off events – separatists go on fund raising drive elsewhere as they know the impending visit of ombaba. Here funds are for a specific purpose and finite time, hence achievable to instigate temporary protests. However to sustain it on an ongoing basis requires different level of dedication and perseverance with unlimited funds and no time limit. IOW be a kubera with cheque to be encashed at a later date if successful. If failure then accept the losses.
So far India is defending well keeping the costs absorbed thanks to its economy. It has to change the course politically and economically to keep up the pressure. Military is out of question and is a non starter. It is like a bull dog chained which prevents outsiders to enter but cannot go on its own as it is chained.
Most important of them is destroy TSP which is achievable and cost effective relatively.
It also shifts the scene of action to mainland TSP rather than J&K.
India is always on high alert on north western borders so it does not change much.
Generally chai biskoot sessions are fine but leadership tends to have bouts of momentary madness which results in India rectifying the mistakes leisurely at considerable cost - SeS, selective leaks of so called saffron terrorism, pandering to extremists when law and order should be applied equally to all etc…..
Somehow the feeling is current politicians are not well versed in statecraft. They are good only in putting down locals in pursuit of elections. Hence the despondency among some Indians.Hope future leaders are of different mettle.
Overall nothing will come of the chai biskoot & interlocutors massaging sessions etc other than buying time and show off middle finger to the world.