Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 2011

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harbans
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby harbans » 24 May 2011 14:51

Singha ji, as i mentioned it's also possible to neutralize the anamoly generation. But i doubt that except for very few subs they have any hull wiring to neutralize this as yet. US subs of late vintage guess all have that facility. So even for localized detection it is potent over straits and channels. IIRC op Malabar a few years back Indians got a US Nuke sub by detecting it's wake which they were looking for. There are many instrumentation, with possibly 2 or more systems using different principles of detection confirming the presence of a sub.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby Kapil » 24 May 2011 14:55

8)

Rajiv Lather ji,Good to see you post after ages? Gosh,its been 11 years since that Delhi meet

Kapil

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby RajeshA » 24 May 2011 15:02

R Vaidya ji,

on the question of Taliban and Pushtuns, for your consideration: A New Political Framework for Pushtunistan

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby Singha » 24 May 2011 15:05

the US SSBN bay in kings bay georgia if you look it up in google earth had some enclosed wet docks marked as "degaussing facility" where maybe SSBNs are wrapped in wires and "demagnetized" or something.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby Rajdeep » 24 May 2011 15:24

Was watching some pakee shows based on the latest hit to their H&D , there is one particular anchor called Mubashir Luqman (who is very obnoxious) , he said that we pakis dont need any evidence that this attack was done by Indians.
On his own talk show he said that they have discovered the world's biggest oil reserve just outside Karachi where the sea water is receding (??? reverse global warming ???) and that the new land is being added to paki area ( i am not making this up) So the Indians want to make the paki navy weak so that it wont be able to defend the oil reserves that are under water which the pakis are going to extract (lawd knows how)

I dont know what goes on in these peoples' mind.



Watch 9 min onwards in the above vid.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby harbans » 24 May 2011 15:28

Some contract details on the Onion. Seems they are worth more than 30 million a piece..

Lockheed Martin Corp. Maritime Systems and Sensors in St. Paul, MN received a $186.5 million ceiling-priced modification to a previously awarded indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract (N00019-06-D-0012) for the fabrication, integration and testing of 7 P-3 aircraft missions systems for the Government of Pakistan under the Foreign Military Sales Program. Work will be performed in Greensville, SC (90%) and Eagan, MN (10%) and is expected to be complete in July 2011. The contract is part of a larger P-3 buy worth up to $970 million, and according to Lockheed’s February 13, 2007 release, 1 aircraft has already been delivered. The Naval Air Systems Command in Patuxent River, MD issued the contract.

This modification includes a fully capable Inverse Synthetic-Aperture Radar ISAR/SAR, Electronic Support Measures (ESM), acoustic system, Electro-Optical/Infra-Red system, communication system and Inter-Communication System (ICS). In addition, this modification includes the installation of P-3 mission systems into the Orion aircraft. Retired Indian Commodore RS Vasan’s “The impact of induction of the P3C Orion Aircraft on the Indian Navy’s Preparedness: An Assessment” is an excellent source for those who wish to put these activities in context and understand the regional military implications of Pakistan’s expanded P-3 fleet and recent Harpoon missile purchases.


http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/?s= ... P+3+Orions

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby krishnan » 24 May 2011 15:35

Rajdeep wrote:Was watching some pakee shows based on the latest hit to their H&D , there is one particular anchor called Mubashir Luqman (who is very obnoxious) , he said that we pakis dont need any evidence that this attack was done by Indians.
On his own talk show he said that they have discovered the world's biggest oil reserve just outside Karachi where the sea water is receding (??? reverse global warming ???) and that the new land is being added to paki area ( i am not making this up) So the Indians want to make the paki navy weak so that it wont be able to defend the oil reserves that are under water which the pakis are going to extract (lawd knows how)

I dont know what goes on in these peoples' mind.


Thats normal paki for you..

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby rohitvats » 24 May 2011 15:51

ramana wrote:<SNIP>

3)I think Rana is also ISI covert operator and all this is cover story of being recruited by Daoud Gialni. He was sent to setup shop in Canada and then on to US to handle North American ops for ISI. He is Pak military through and through. And didn't he have high connections in TSP military/elite too?


Also, I find his trip to Germany for high altitude induced sickness and subsequent AWOL as too convinient? Why AWOL? If he had good connections in PA, why desert? Why not honorable discharge? As a deserter, he would have an arrest warrant outstanding against his name. Too many conincidences.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby R Vaidya » 24 May 2011 16:00

Rajesh A

"on the question of Taliban and Pushtuns, for your consideration: A New Political Framework for Pushtunistan"


Thanks

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby Narad » 24 May 2011 16:34

Brahma Chellaney on ET
The terrorist assault on Pakistan's main naval air base is a chilling re-minder that those who play with fire will get burnt and, ultimately, be consumed by fire. The attack was carried out in the coldblooded, professional style taught by Inter-Services Intelligence to its proxies, including those that struck Mumbai in November 2008. Having created a terrorist manual and a sprawling terror infrastructure, the Pakistani military and its spy agency are now reaping a bitter harvest.

The insiders' role highlights a larger concern - the jihadist threat to Pakistan's nuclear weapons (its 'crown jewels') comes not from non-state actors but from within the jihadist-infiltrated military, nuclear and intelligence establishments. The more Pakistan has begun to look like a failing state, the more it has accelerated its nuclear- weapons programme.

Nuclear weapons are for deterrence, they are not an answer to failed national-building, which is what Pakistan confronts. Yet Pakistan values nuclear weapons more for their political utility than their military utility

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby shravan » 24 May 2011 16:47

Tableeghi Jamaats to be banned from Cantts, defence areas

...
Security agencies have been suggesting such measures from time to time in the past in view of the growing terrorism. It has happened in the past that junior officials of the Pakistan Air Force got one-year-long leave on the pretext of accompanying the preaching groups, but when they were later arrested, it transpired that they had in fact been training with different militant groups,” a senior security officer told The News on condition of anonymity.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby SSridhar » 24 May 2011 17:09

Sanku wrote:According to BRaman, TSPN is the arm working most enthusiastically with US and west in putting down the jahil talebs.


That may not be entirely accurate. While every country is involved in some amount of scheming, intrigue and cunning occasionally, the Pakistanis thrive only on it and all the time too. Past history shows that not only Pakistan but also its precursor, the Muslim League, were known for duplicity, fraud and double cross. No wonder the State, as a whole, inherited these characteristics from its leaders. The first decade after Independence was full of these behaviour both in the domestic and external fronts. This set a precedent for Pakistan to follow for ever afterward. One should always analyze Pakistani actions with this in mind.

If one looks at the TSPA, it has also taken part in campaigns against the terrorists, like TSPN. In fact, its involvement is much more high profile, and extensive. At the same time, it has also helped the Taliban, Al Qaeda and Pakistani terror tanzeems. It is common sense that TSPA or TSPAF or TSPN or ISI or GoP cannot openly appear to be on the 'wrong side' in the global war on terror except when it comes to India. The exception is a redline that the US and its allies have come to accept and understand. Having bought their concurrence on the need for employing jihadi terrorists against India, Pakistan went ahead with a double game against the West. Except for a few at the very, very top, the rest believed that the armed forces and GoP were working with the West either because of pressure or because of blandishment. It is true, but the very, very top also hatched a plan right from the beginning to double-cross. So many incidents are living proof of this double cross by Pakistan. One of the facades put up by the evil forces in Pakistan was to sacrifice a few thousand (civilian plus military) for the greater cause. They did send the Army to shell the mud houses in FATA and flatten villages. They sent the PAF to strafe and bomb the living daylights out of these folks. They also fought fierce battles with the bad guys in Bajaur, Swat, South Waziristan etc where the PA suffered huge losses. The PA commanders went in with the intention of fighting to save the fatherland while the very, very top had different ideas about these fights, deception to make the Americans believe that the PA was fighting seriously indeed. Neither the bad guys nor the PA are unwilling to lose their guys if only the end result could be as they want. After all, these folks would have died for the greater cause of Islam. So, it might appear that the State was expending its energy to fighting terror while something else was going on at the very, very top, unbeknownest to everyone. We must remember that Gen. Musharraf openly talked about Hudaibaya in the Urdu version of the televised speech to Pakistanis on the eve of aligning with the Americans after 9/11.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby khan » 24 May 2011 17:09

shravan wrote:Tableeghi Jamaats to be banned from Cantts, defence areas

...
Security agencies have been suggesting such measures from time to time in the past in view of the growing terrorism. It has happened in the past that junior officials of the Pakistan Air Force got one-year-long leave on the pretext of accompanying the preaching groups, but when they were later arrested, it transpired that they had in fact been training with different militant groups,” a senior security officer told The News on condition of anonymity.


If true, this might provoke a civil war. Until now the pure and not so pure in the PA got along because they were focused on the infidels. Now the not so pure is threatening the ideology of the pure. The pure will not go without a fight.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby SSridhar » 24 May 2011 17:41


Too little and way too late and impossible to implement also.

Tablighi Jama'at have followers at the highest levels in political, bureaucratic, academic and armed forces establishments. For example, the then President of Pakistan Rafiq Tarar, also a former Judge of the Supreme Court, used to attend regularly Tablighi Jama'at congretations(ijtima) at Raiwind near Lahore, as also Lt. Gen. Javid Nasir, Lt. Gen. Hamid Gul and Lt. Gen. Naseem Rana, all DGs, ISI. Rafiq Tarar also called the famous sectarian and anti-Ahmedi spearhead Maulana Ataullah Shah Bukhari as his guru. Several famous cricketers such as captain Inzamam-ul-Haq were ardent followers of the Jama'at. Rafiq Tarar, even when he was in office, used to attend the annual conferences of Khattam-e-Nabuwwat where resolutions are regularly passed condemning the Qadianis in strongest possible terms. On the eve of the November, 2009 annual convention of the Tablighi Jama'at, 50 former high-ranking officers of the armed forces met under the chairmanship of Lt. Gen. Javid Nasir met for a day to deliberate how to take the movement forward, possibly within the armed forces. It included many retired Generals, Brigadiers and Admirals including former Chief of Naval Staff (CNS) Admiral Karamat Rehman Niazi. This meeting was known as "Halqa-e-Khawas" (group of special people). In fact, the extreme religious views of DG, ISI, Lt. Gen. Javid Nasir, that sprang directly from his association with the Tablighi Jamaat, ultimately led him to be sacked. In the shuffling of the ISI that followed his dismissal, over two dozen officers were also transferred for their suspected links. According to Ms. Maleeha Lodhi, Lt. Gen. Javid Nasir was dismissed from the Pakistan Army because being a follower of the Tablighi Jamaat he made no secret of his extreme religious beliefs which led him to be personally associated with some very adventurist policies and actions by the ISI about which not just the US but also some friendly Arab countries protested to the then government of Pakistan.

After all that, how are they going to cleanse the armed forces of the influence of Tablighi Jama'at ?

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby Dipanker » 24 May 2011 17:58


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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby shiv » 24 May 2011 18:11

krishnan wrote:
Rajdeep wrote:Was watching some pakee shows based on the latest hit to their H&D , there is one particular anchor called Mubashir Luqman (who is very obnoxious) , he said that we pakis dont need any evidence that this attack was done by Indians.
On his own talk show he said that they have discovered the world's biggest oil reserve just outside Karachi where the sea water is receding (??? reverse global warming ???) and that the new land is being added to paki area ( i am not making this up) So the Indians want to make the paki navy weak so that it wont be able to defend the oil reserves that are under water which the pakis are going to extract (lawd knows how)

I dont know what goes on in these peoples' mind.


Thats normal paki for you..


But still we have Indians who believe that nukes in jihadi hands is somehow worse than nukes in the hands of these worthies.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby shiv » 24 May 2011 18:23

khan wrote:If true, this might provoke a civil war. Until now the pure and not so pure in the PA got along because they were focused on the infidels. Now the not so pure is threatening the ideology of the pure. The pure will not go without a fight.


It's all a question of degree. Is Pakistan failing? By many counts yes. Is there civil war in Pakistan? By many indicators yes.
People argue and say "No it is not failing" or "No there is no civil war" - but things look like Pakistan is failing and there is civil war and the actions that people are taking are exactly the actions required to stop failure and try and reverse the situation that is causing civil war.

The difference between a history book and history in the making is that you can leaf through the book in hours and read about several years of civil war in those hours. Living through history takes longer than that.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby Raghavendra » 24 May 2011 18:47



Height of kufariyat, rejecting a invitation to visit pureland is blasphemy, WUQ this team

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby A_Gupta » 24 May 2011 18:59

shiv wrote:It's all a question of degree. Is Pakistan failing? By many counts yes.


To agree that Pakistan is failing requires some concept of what it would mean for Pakistan to be not failing, or to be successful.

So, e.g., is keeping women illiterate a failure? To us outsiders, yes. To Pakistanis as a whole - probably not at all. It may actually be a success to keep women from getting impure with modernist ideas.

E.g., to the average Abdul in Pakistan, on the security front, the failure of Pakistan is not its support for jihadis, but rather that the state is not able to promote and protect (e.g., from Abbotabadization, drone strikes) iihadis that only attack Indians, Afghans, Americans, Israelis, etc., and do not disrupt daily life in Pakistan (or e.g., do not attack visiting Sri Lanka cricket team). So for all of us outside Pakistan, the failure of Pakistan is the failure to do away with jihadis. For Pakistanis, it is a failure of the jihadi winnowing process.

What are the Pakistani state/kabila's objectives? Is it moving towards those objectives? If yes, then Pakistan is not a failure.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby saip » 24 May 2011 19:01

Not so fast. Afghanistan is touring Pakistan to save their H&D :rotfl:

Afghanistan leap ahead with Pakistan tour

(Few minutes back the headline read 'Pakistan's Pariah status comes to an end'. They must have read BR and changed the headline :twisted: )

http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/24/afghanis ... -tour.html

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby ramana » 24 May 2011 19:04

Rajiv Lather wrote:The discrepancy in the number of militants is interesting. Also interesting is how the attack ended - from militants holed up in one building with foreign hostages to "all militants dead and no hostages".

Looks like they took the Chinies as hostage and then negotiated a safe passage. At least 10 of them got away.



Welcome back Rajiv!!! You should post more often. We miss your incisive analysis.

The odd thing s the number of terrorists/miscreants. It keeps changing with the hour like the US version of Abortabad raid.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby ramana » 24 May 2011 19:07

R Vaidya wrote:In what way the Taliban and / or AQ harmed or intended to harm India--I do not recall any Taliban good or bad-- threat to India. Similarly If my memory serves me right OBL was never interested in K or any other Indian issue or threatened India.
If that is the case why should we not build bridges with Taliban and if they want to rule Afghan or Pak --let them. The enemies of Pak Army/ISI or USA need not be our enemies.
A religious group ruling Pakistan is better than current thugs of PA/ISI
May be I am not getting it right?



R Vaidya garu, Recall even the Taliban did not want to recognize the Durand line. Besides if true democracy comes to Afghanistan the Ghilzai (mostly in Khyber Pakhtunnwa) due to their numbers will be the majority.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby A_Gupta » 24 May 2011 19:13

R Vaidya wrote:In what way the Taliban and / or AQ harmed or intended to harm India--I do not recall any Taliban good or bad-- threat to India.


Taliban hostility was on display in the IC 814 hijack. E.g, Wiki reminds us "Taliban moved its well-armed fighters near the hijacked aircraft in an attempt to prevent Indian special forces from storming the aircraft. " "However, the intention of the Taliban was under doubt after its armed fighters surrounded the aircraft.[13] The Taliban maintained that the forces were deployed in an attempt to dissuade the hijackers from killing or injuring the hostages but some analysts believe it was done to prevent an Indian military operation against the hijackers."

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby shiv » 24 May 2011 19:21

A_Gupta wrote:
R Vaidya wrote:In what way the Taliban and / or AQ harmed or intended to harm India--I do not recall any Taliban good or bad-- threat to India.


Taliban hostility was on display in the IC 814 hijack. E.g, Wiki reminds us "Taliban moved its well-armed fighters near the hijacked aircraft in an attempt to prevent Indian special forces from storming the aircraft. " "However, the intention of the Taliban was under doubt after its armed fighters surrounded the aircraft.[13] The Taliban maintained that the forces were deployed in an attempt to dissuade the hijackers from killing or injuring the hostages but some analysts believe it was done to prevent an Indian military operation against the hijackers."


All the Taliban vehicles and guns were pointed away from the aircraft and would have had to turn around to even look at the aircraft.

This video should jog memories, and edify some younger BRFites - who may have been too young to understand.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/ic814-at-kan ... 863-3.html

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby RamaY » 24 May 2011 19:22

shiv wrote:The difference between a history book and history in the making is that you can leaf through the book in hours and read about several years of civil war in those hours. Living through history takes longer than that.


Excellently put. Applies for many actions we want from Bharat too.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby shiv » 24 May 2011 19:27

A_Gupta wrote:
What are the Pakistani state/kabila's objectives? Is it moving towards those objectives? If yes, then Pakistan is not a failure.


Arun there are some interesting semantics here.

Can a Kabila be a legitimate state recognised by the UN and dignified with all the rights of a member country? Why does no one look at it this way?

The reasons are clear to anyone who acquires the required degree of cynicism about the hypocrisy of the "current world order". The current world order supports monster regimes that fit in with the needs of some powerful nations. Those monster regimes are dignified with the name "nation state" and are given a place in the UN. The UN itself is a puppet body for allowing this hypocrisy.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby Sushupti » 24 May 2011 19:37

Is Pakistan attack a blueprint for nuclear base raid?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/ ... L520110524

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby shravan » 24 May 2011 19:38


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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby Raghavendra » 24 May 2011 19:47

saip wrote:Not so fast. Afghanistan is touring Pakistan to save their H&D :rotfl:

Afghanistan leap ahead with Pakistan tour

(Few minutes back the headline read 'Pakistan's Pariah status comes to an end'. They must have read BR and changed the headline :twisted: )

http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/24/afghanis ... -tour.html


:mrgreen:
Afghans end Pakistan's pariah status http://tribune.com.pk/story/174327/afgh ... ah-status/

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby saip » 24 May 2011 19:48

shravan wrote:Navy base attack: Attack linked with bus bombings, not Osama

CT Hinting at Baloch militant angle.


They could be right. 11/26 took more than year in planning to execution. Osama's raid took several months of planning. It is hard to believe that a rag tag bunch of tali bunnies could launch a successful raid against a well protected naval base in 3 weeks to avenge Osama. This raid must have been planned for months.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby ranjbe » 24 May 2011 19:55

GuruPrabhu wrote:
ranjbe wrote:The P3C if nuclear-armed, would not only be detected by radiation sniffers on satelllites or AWACs.


what are these "sniffers" that can achieve this feat?

These range from simple Geiger Counters available openly in the US to sophisticated devices used by US Homeland security at borders. For the technologies involved, see:
http://www.blackcatsystems.com/GM/RadiationSensor.html

Look at journals involving non-proliferation Ayatollahs where I saw articles regarding airplane and satellite detectors - I think they were solid state sensors. This was a few years ago, and I cannot remember the date/publication. Perhaps nuclear experts on BRF have better knowledge.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby Lalmohan » 24 May 2011 19:57

satellite based systems need to be analysing electro magnetic, optical, infra red and UV wavelengths to detect anything. geiger counters on satellites will detect high levels of natural radiation in space
not sure how this is supposed to work?

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby Raghavendra » 24 May 2011 20:02

http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDe ... 752&Cat=11
The terrorist attack on PNS Mehran in Karachi is an extremely disturbing incident. Besides causing a loss of millions to our national exchequer, it has badly tarnished the image and reputation of our security forces which seem helpless in confronting these terrorists and have failed time and again to safeguard their own high-security areas. Reportedly, the terrorists who attacked PNS Mehran first entered the PAF base through the PAF Museum where a wedding ceremony was taking place. The PAF Museum, adjacent to PAF Base Faisal, is in fact a commercial enterprise run by the PAF where frequent musical programmes, marriage ceremonies and other commercial events take place regularly. This museum is frequented by a large number of people from morning till late night.

In view of its location and because of the precarious law and order situation prevailing in Pakistan and especially in Karachi, the PAF authorities must immediately cease all commercial activities taking place at the PAF Museum and restrict the use of this place as a museum only.

A Rashid

Rawalpindi


Marriage in Museum, Honeymoon in zoo :lol:



ISI's cache of drugs and booze seized
Seven suspects held; 90 bottles of wine seized http://www.thenews.com.pk/NewsDetail.aspx?ID=15872

ISLAMABAD: Islamabad Police have arrested nine accused for their alleged involvement in bootlegging, drug peddling and recovered 90 bottles of wine and heroin from their possession, a polices pokesman said here Saturday.

On a tip off, Aabpara police station arrested Nadeem Maseeh and recovered 81 wine bottles from him.

Shehzad town police arrested Irfan Maseeh for having five bottles of wine while Bhara Kahu police station nabbed an accused Aamir for having four wine bottles.

Tarnol police station apprehended Nadeem Khan and Arif Khan for possessing 600 gram heroin. Industrial Area police nabbed Akram, Siddique, Bushra Rehman and Farah for their alleged involvement in immoral activities.

Meanwhile, Golra police and Aabpara police nabbed five and two suspects respectively and further investigation is underway.



Nawaz to be the next Sunroof lever victim

Army, agencies’ budgets be presented in assembly : Nawaz http://www.thenews.com.pk/NewsDetail.aspx?ID=15533

LAHORE: Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Chief Mian Nawaz Sharif has demanded that army and intelligence agencies’ budget should be presented in the assembly, Geo News reported on Saturday.

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby Sushupti » 24 May 2011 20:07

Before Attack, Pakistan’s Navy Boasted of Role in Fight Against Taliban

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/0 ... t-taliban/

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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby ramana » 24 May 2011 20:26

Sushupti wrote:Is Pakistan attack a blueprint for nuclear base raid?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/ ... L520110524



Worth posting in full

Analysis: Is Pakistan attack a blueprint for nuclear base raid?
By Alistair Scrutton

ISLAMABAD | Tue May 24, 2011 9:05am EDT

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - A group of highly-trained militants with night-vision goggles and the collusion of sympathetic Islamist military officials storm a heavily-guarded navy base situated only a few miles from where a unstable Pakistan stores some of its nuclear weapons.

That is the scary way of looking at the attack on the navy base in Karachi on Sunday night that destroyed two U.S.-built aircraft and killed 10 military personnel, fuelling worries about the safety of the world's fastest-growing nuclear arsenal.

The consensus remains that Pakistan's 70-100 nuclear weapons are safe. Security at installations is reportedly much higher. It is almost impossible for a rogue team to launch any missiles and the vetting of staff at these bases is extremely rigorous.

But each attack in Pakistan seems to up the ante, surprising analysts and military alike about how far militants can reach into the heart of the powerful military establishment -- perhaps one day doing enough to steal nuclear material for a "dirty" bomb or successfully penetrating a nuclear facility.

In Sunday's attack, attackers scaled walls with ladders to enter PNS Mehran, one of Pakistan's most heavily guarded bases, and held off the military for nearly 17 hours.

"It reinforces the fear that terrorists have now developed a range of tactics - foreknowledge, use of uniforms, simultaneous attacks on different entry points, etc - which enable them to penetrate high-security bases and, crucially, hold space within them for hours," Professor Shaun Gregory, director of the Pakistan Security Research Unit at Bradford University, wrote in an email.

"This is a blueprint for an attack on a nuclear facility."

The attack took place only 15 miles away from a suspected Pakistan nuclear weapons storage site at Masroor air base, a sign of how close the nuclear arsenal is to the growing violence from the Pakistan Taliban and other militant groups.

Even in some of Pakistan's more nationalistic media, which for years has dismissed criticism of the safety of the nuclear arsenal as foreign-inspired propaganda, doubts have surfaced.

"This easy action by the terrorists has rightly raised concerns among the nation that neither any part of the country nor our nuclear installations are safe," Urdu newspaper Nawa-i-Waqt said in its editorial on Tuesday.

Some commentators said it was possible that the attack could only have happened with help of insiders within the base - perhaps disaffected and low-level military personnel angry at increasingly open U.S. operations on its soil.

The fear is these kind of insiders could assist an assault on a nuclear base. Even an unsuccessful attack could sow panic in the military and spark more pressure from Washington.

The Taliban hinted at local help, but remained coy to whether there were inside the base.

"Our 'local friends' from Karachi helped us in yesterday's operation but I would not say whether we had friends on the base or not," Taliban spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan told Reuters from an undisclosed location.

ONLY THE LATEST SETBACK

The attack comes after the killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. forces sparked suspicion the al Qaeda leader may have been helped for years by sympathizers within Pakistan's intelligence services.

Nor was this the first attack at the heart of Pakistan's military. There was an attack at the army general headquarters in Rawalpindi in 2009. Later investigations found low ranking soldiers and officers were involved in planning the attacks.

U.S. diplomatic cables from 2006 published in local media showed then Deputy Chief of Air Staff for Operations, Air Vice Marshal Khalid Chaudhry as reporting of small scale sabotage from low ranking Islamist officials to stop aircraft being deployed in security operations along the Afghan border.

This all may lead to a nightmare scenario for the West of a small group of officials managing to steal nuclear material, load it up with conventional explosives, and set it off.

"(The) major concern is not having an Islamic militant steal an entire weapon but rather the chance someone working in government of Pakistan facilities could gradually smuggle enough material out to eventually make a weapon," U.S. ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson said in a 2009 cable released by WikiLeaks, according to media reports.

U.S. officials have said that they do not know everything about the size and location of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, but have publicly voiced confidence in Pakistan's ability to secure its weapons.

There are some 10,000 soldiers guarding the facilities and only 5 percent of individuals pass strict screening tests for staff at the facilities, according to a report by Shashank Joshi of the U.K.-based Royal United Services Institute think-tank. :mrgreen:

Experts say nuclear weapons are stored separately from delivery systems - meaning any militants ability to launch weapons is almost impossible.

But analysts point to weakness in the system.

"Separate storage may provide a layer of protection against accidental launch or prevent theft of an assembled weapon, it may be easier for unauthorized people to remove a weapon's fissile material core if it is not assembled," The U.S. Congressional Research Service said in a report in January.

There are also concerns that any future stand-off with nuclear foe India could lead to a chaotic situation with nuclear weapons dispersed around the country, straining Pakistan's military command structure.

Pakistan's move to develop short range tactical nuclear weapons may also make them more vulnerable to theft or a mutiny by a group of military officers.

"If they are designed for battlefield use, they could present an easier target for terrorists to seize and use themselves," wrote Ben Rhode, research associate for non-proliferation and disarmament at The International Institute for Strategic Studies, in an email to Reuters.


ranjbe
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby ranjbe » 24 May 2011 20:31

Lalmohan wrote:satellite based systems need to be analysing electro magnetic, optical, infra red and UV wavelengths to detect anything. geiger counters on satellites will detect high levels of natural radiation in space
not sure how this is supposed to work?

I do not know either, I am just a poor engineer, not a nuclear physicist. However, I have seen literature which hints at work going on such systems since 1990. Common sense tells me that:
1. This is a very high priority issue for the US. The worse case scenario for the US is an undetected nuclear device/dirty bomb smuggled in to the country.
2. Maybe the problems are insolvable; maybe they have solved them. Maybe the sensors/detectors are on the super-secret stealth HAARP plane which apparently can circle the globe at half the speed of light! Unfortunately, the details will never be known on an open forum such as BRF

shiv
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby shiv » 24 May 2011 20:33

ranjbe wrote:These range from simple Geiger Counters available openly in the US to sophisticated devices used by US Homeland security at borders. For the technologies involved, see:
http://www.blackcatsystems.com/GM/RadiationSensor.html

Look at journals involving non-proliferation Ayatollahs where I saw articles regarding airplane and satellite detectors - I think they were solid state sensors. This was a few years ago, and I cannot remember the date/publication. Perhaps nuclear experts on BRF have better knowledge.


I am not a nuke expert - but relying on physics learned decades ago, nuclear material can only be detected from a distance (through an "air gap" if you like) by detecting the radiation that comes from it. That would have to be either Alpha (Helium nuclei), Beta (electrons) or Gamma (EM) radiation. If the material is shielded so none of these can get out - it would not be detected. Only Gamma rays travel any decent distance.
Last edited by shiv on 24 May 2011 20:35, edited 1 time in total.

Lalmohan
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby Lalmohan » 24 May 2011 20:34

sniffing can be done in the atmosphere by flying into plumes, and was used to confirm Pu traces in the paqui bums of chagai (there's a film title in there somewhere!), i don't see how satellites can do much in that regard. stuff being carried in planes is not going to leave much of a trace...

ramana
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby ramana » 24 May 2011 20:44

Sats can detect the flash after the stuff goes off.

shiv
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Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 201

Postby shiv » 24 May 2011 20:45

Lalmohan wrote:sniffing can be done in the atmosphere by flying into plumes, and was used to confirm Pu traces in the paqui bums of chagai (there's a film title in there somewhere!), i don't see how satellites can do much in that regard. stuff being carried in planes is not going to leave much of a trace...


I would have thought that for this air/dust is sampled and subjected to spectroscopy?


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