India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Part 2

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 06 Dec 2011 00:31

I understand that it is a 126 MMRCA deal. and not a Rs 50000 cr deal. Such figures are given based on certain cost assumptions which are not realistic. Also depreciation can not be factored into while making such assumptions. I would think if two TCO matches nearly, we are getting best prices and not cartel type approach by Euro birds. Possibility of split does not arise as cost offered would be based on 126 + future orders and not on less than 126 birds. btw before new year it could be out.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 06 Dec 2011 00:34

Victor wrote:

And BTW, none of the MMRCA contestants "failed technicals". IAF chief is on record as having said "they are all good aircraft". The 2 finalists were chosen according to a set of variables in force earlier this year which may have been overtaken in importance by recent events.

Those which made the mark are ones which passed and rest "failed" according to "a set of variables". That's all I mean to say. Good aircraft is not same as passed for our requirements. It is IAF ranking which selected top two.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 06 Dec 2011 00:38

chaanakya wrote:I understand that it is a 126 MMRCA deal. and not a Rs 50000 cr deal.

Although this would make sense in normal circumstances, it is not clear if it is so in this case. There was talk of increasing the number to appx 200. It is cheaper and more politically desirable for the vendors, specially now, to sell domestically made jets and not set up an assembly line in India. This may also play into the jockeying in Dilli.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 06 Dec 2011 00:42

The currency depreciation and general economic problems have come at a very inopportune time for the IAF. They are going to be up s*** creek without a paddle if the FinMin babus cry foul over the cost of 126 Rafale's or Typhoons. Hence the statements by the Saab fellows about it "not being over till its over". The Gripen would be very bad news for the LCA though.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Dec 2011 00:45

Victor wrote: In this light, Shukla's plug for the Gripen is not as outrageous or dangerous as some are making it out to be. One way to look at it is: let's say we can get 126 Rafales, 120 Typhoons or 380 Gripens for the same amount of money--which would you choose? I would choose Gripens because 3 of them would kill a single Rafale or Typhoon any day.

Victor, I respectfully disagree. If you look at IAF fleet since Independence it was always settling for the third best : Vampire, Ourgan etc and paid the price for it.

Quantity cannot make up for quality. Read the acounts of 1965 and 1971 air wars. The IAF had to think out of the box to make up for the lack of quality.

IOW if you can get the best then get it.

Grippen will be like the Vampire again if the other side gets gifted State of the Art fighter planes.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 06 Dec 2011 00:51

^^In addition to what ramana garu said, the 3 Gripens cost == 1 Typhoon argument is moot, because regardless of which jet the IAF chooses they will be acquiring 126 only, possibly 60 more if the options are exercised. Besides even 2 Gripens would cost more than a Typhoon anyway.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 06 Dec 2011 00:57

Also since there is consensus over the fact that Gripen NG will be very similar to the LCA MK2 there is not much to gain in terms of operational flexibility and tactics by fielding these two aircraft which invariably will sound the death knell for the Tejas program which is not desired. Apart from the experience gained in designing the fighter there is also a lot to be learned in the production process which we will gain only if we produce 100-200 tejas birds. So i hope Gripen doesnt make it but who knows

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Dec 2011 00:58

Keep this in mind....

Austin wrote:Chinese Air Force way ahead of IAF - Air Marshal Narayan Menon

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 06 Dec 2011 01:02

Victor wrote:By that reasoning, a twin-engined, thrust-vectoring AESA Typhoon should cause HAL to close down the Su30-mki production line. No, it is not an IAF choice to continue to develop LCA, it is and INDIAN choice and no lungi shivering should change that.

But Sir, the MKI is already in an advanced stage of production - the IAF is in fact working on an MLU here. No comparison with the LCA, which is yet to be productionized. The Gripen will come as a complete package, fresh off a coup in Switzerland, and the LCA will come off as a half-baked product. Media perceptions will further color this in favor of the "independent choice", Saab; and take potshots at the "Late combat aircraft" - too old, obsolete, incomplete, 100% phoren. All of this **** will justify IAF support for Gripen, I fear even the 100 odd orders currently given to LCA may be taken away.

Another option is to not set up an assembly line but simply buy 300 Gripens off the shelf and direct the offsets to our choice of tech areas. This will save even more and the money can be spent on LCA.

It may come to something like this with the other two candidates, to save on price.

chaanakya wrote:I understand that it is a 126 MMRCA deal. and not a Rs 50000 cr deal. Such figures are given based on certain cost assumptions which are not realistic. Also depreciation can not be factored into while making such assumptions. I would think if two TCO matches nearly, we are getting best prices and not cartel type approach by Euro birds. Possibility of split does not arise as cost offered would be based on 126 + future orders and not on less than 126 birds. btw before new year it could be out.

COst assumptions etc are fine; but there is also public perceptions. Remember gentlemen, this deal was originally thought of as $ 5 bln, then $ 10.2 bln, now upto $ 15 bln, what next $ 25 bln? Might not fly with aam log and opposition. Like I said, one "G" word and whole thing could come down with Mr. Honest demanding inquiries. Worse, it might not fly with the Finmin, especially if the economic situation does not augur well.

The best thing is if the deal is finalized in the next few days - quick and dirty before anyone can raise a pinky.

vasu_ray · Post by **vasu_ray** » 06 Dec 2011 01:18

suryag wrote:Also since there is consensus over the fact that Gripen NG will be very similar to the LCA MK2 there is not much to gain in terms of operational flexibility and tactics by fielding these two aircraft which invariably will sound the death knell for the Tejas program which is not desired. Apart from the experience gained in designing the fighter there is also a lot to be learned in the production process which we will gain only if we produce 100-200 tejas birds. So i hope Gripen doesnt make it but who knows

it may not be 1 to 1, however knowing Gripens performance aganist known aircraft from adversaries would enable us to guesstimate the LCA mk2? I know the Saab guys would hate to bring in such comparison

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 Dec 2011 02:21

what would shukla ji say, if suddenly unkill comes out of the womb and says, they will participate on equal terms on AMCA, providing all facilities for r&d and testing? Will it change MMRCA numbers?

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 06 Dec 2011 02:32

Cain Marko wrote:
The best thing is if the deal is finalized in the next few days - quick and dirty before anyone can raise a pinky.

Not happening. The FinMin will have to be involved in any price negotiations, since they will be the ones signing the checks. And I am 399% sure that they will balk at a cost escalation of $5b or more, especially with the economic outlook looking grim.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 06 Dec 2011 02:38

Ramana wrote:if you can get the best then get it

The Vampire WAS the best when we got it and so were the Ouragan, Mystere & Hunter in their time. But not having used them when we should have (62), we happened to need them when they were outclassed (65). The only "not best" airplane we bought was the Gnat which no one else wanted but I am not in favor of going "rah, rah" over its having done halal on the "superior" Sabres and Starfighters. Maybe that was just luck.

However the best we can get today is the F-35 and nobody wants to go there. Rafale, Typhoon are 2nd best but cost will soon cause Pranabda to perform Tandav. 3rd best are Gripen/MiG-35/Shornet and all are better than anything the pakis or chinese can throw at us for the next 10 years.

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 06 Dec 2011 02:38

Gripen NG is indeed the cheaper aircraft to operate. It is certainly nimble and boasts of supercruise. Isn't CAPTOR-E offered on the Gripen NG as well? It does have better range than the Typhoon and comes at a much lower cost. It will share the same engine as the LCA MK-2 which will bring in commonality. GE's F 414 is easily the most reliable fighter jet engine ever made, so far not a single technical failure. There is no reason why Gripen NG and LCA mk-2 can't co exist. It's easily also the easist and cheapest to maintain between the eurocanards. It can be quite an aircraft.

Leo.Davidson · Post by **Leo.Davidson** » 06 Dec 2011 03:19

Please refrain from discussing the Gripen or F-35. I bet it's make a lot of us folks nervous. I believe that the IAF has made the right choice, for the final contenders and we need to move forward with them.

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 06 Dec 2011 04:34

Christopher Sidor wrote:With rupee expected to touch Rs 55 to a dollar, what happens to this deal's financials?

The rupee to Euro rate that existed on 7Nov-2011 (date the commercial tenders were opened in front of the EADS and Dassault reps) will be the rate that will be used for the deal.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 Dec 2011 06:50

And.. when US treasury bonds are there, why not reduce those bonds, and pay the selected Euro-canarder the right $ amount? That way we can tolerate the exchange rate.. think about the time when we had $30b at ₹30 a $.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Dec 2011 07:59

I got the odd feeling that India is getting ready to get out of the MRCA deal and go for its own planes. Nothing else expalins the Grippen being back in play, JSF etc. In other words confusion.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 06 Dec 2011 08:23

Let us assume that the $=Rs rate was steady and normal at 44.

There would have still been some (the powers that be and not BRFites) naysayers and some who would muddy the waters in support of their "favourites."

Now throw the >52 into the mix.

The naysayers would have had to be dealt with in any case. How, then, would the economic issue have been handled? The forward cover for the $ or Euro would have a cost which would make it >than 44. Maybe in the vicinity of 7%.

Since all the money is not going to be spent upfront, there is a very good chance that down the road the Rs. would at least come down back to 44 levels. In my opinion, with reports of a global recession looming the chances of Euro and $ weakening is also a possibility.

In my opinion, the way to alleviate it is to stick to the 126 with the option of a few more dozens and then watch how it goes.

The value of the Rs. dropping is in my opinion another incentive to move our backsides to being self sufficient.

manum · Post by **manum** » 06 Dec 2011 10:03

Its not simply about INR depreciating...its a good thing sometimes for exports, but its not good if its an indicator of less investment from foreign countries, fiscal deficit increasing and other burdens rising...Europe is one of biggest investor in Indian and Chinese economy...Europe collapsing means India will be dried of funds coming from abroad...so we are anyways interlinked...Developed world is one of biggest source of growth for our world...It goes, so does our money...(This is why I wondered about China, they are also dependent on Europe as biggest buyer and investor, they cant be immune to this)

I hope we had braced ourselves before hand...and this process remains irreversible in principle as it has been and we buy the best...There shouldn't be any "G or F" word popping up, hopefully...

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 06 Dec 2011 10:19

manum wrote:Its not simply about INR depreciating...its a good thing sometimes for exports, but its not good if its an indicator of less investment from foreign countries, fiscal deficit increasing and other burdens rising...Europe is one of biggest investor in Indian and Chinese economy...Europe collapsing means India will be dried of funds coming from abroad...so we are anyways interlinked...Developed world is one of biggest source of growth for our world...It goes, so does our money...(This is why I wondered about China, they are also dependent on Europe as biggest buyer and investor, they cant be immune to this)

I hope we had braced ourselves before hand...and this process remains irreversible in principle as it has been and we buy the best...There shouldn't be any "G or F" word popping up, hopefully...

The world has shrunk to a global village and hence anyone sneezes other countries catch a cold to varying degrees.

I think we are all of the opinion that we need to fast track our defence preparedness. And the MMRCA is important to us. In my opinion, since we know that we are an emerging market, under threat from the oversized dragon, the powers that be will have to relook priorities and sacrifice on other fronts. After all, what is the use of an emerging market without adequate deterrence?

My POV: I was keen on FDI in retail (in ideal conditions), because that would have boosted our economy, and the economies of scale with improved infrastructure to reduce food wastage, make stuff more affordable would have helped inject more growth since we are a country with a big population and bring in forex.

And it would have helped us to continue the catch up game for our defence needs including the MMRCA.

However, all this is dependent on the people who we voted to power.

Alas, the last sentence does not give me much hope.

saptarishi · Post by **saptarishi** » 06 Dec 2011 11:00

ramana wrote:I got the odd feeling that India is getting ready to get out of the MRCA deal and go for its own planes. Nothing else expalins the Grippen being back in play, JSF etc. In other words confusion.

you too are playing into col ajai shuklas words. mmrca deal cannot be abandoned now. it is in its last phase

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 Dec 2011 11:19

It is important to believe in situations rather scenarios, where the former is more on facts while the latter is tend to false interpretations of actual/real [who knows the truth?] course of events.

Italy is on the verge.. Greek 2, and a partner to Cassadian. It is important to highlight this situation by GoI, and make sure the price is right. [get the drift?]

So believe in it.. or make them believe they are going to perish, if they don't accept India's offer*.

*does anyone know what MoD/GoI is after?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 Dec 2011 11:30

Think about this: If Gripen can be a scape goat with Swiss politics, why can't it be for other places as well. Same BR analogy of woh lahore mein gaandu..

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 06 Dec 2011 12:53

saptarishi wrote:
ramana wrote:I got the odd feeling that India is getting ready to get out of the MRCA deal and go for its own planes. Nothing else expalins the Grippen being back in play, JSF etc. In other words confusion.
you too are playing into col ajai shuklas words. mmrca deal cannot be abandoned now. it is in its last phase

I wonder if some in the IAF/MoD want the Gripen NG to be bought to scuttle the chances of the Tejas. Nothing else would explain the decision if the Gripen NG is selected after being eliminated.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 06 Dec 2011 13:39

When the moment of truth arrives and the GOI is required to take a decision,and when the eban counters take oput their calculators,I wish that it extracts from the IA yet again if not already enunciated,a review of what its doctrine for the future will be in the light of the MMRCA decision,and how it intends to achieve iits goals ,with a family of aircraft,UCAVs,Helos,transports,etc.,bearing in mind the huge acquisition and life cycle costs of operating such aircraft.The beauty with the Chinese is ,that the majority of the Chinese inventory today,both aircraft and weaponry is truly homegorwn This has allowed it to build up in numbers overwhelming supreriority, and in class almost the equiv. in tech. wit itsv latest oferings.But the greatest development it has made is in the field of missiles and ordnance,where it is fully self-sufficient for both AAMs and ASMs and in anti-ship mode,new LR cruise missiles,with even a Tomahawk style missile. These have been possble by the PRC begging,borowing and stealing,the latter being the favoured route to acquire advanced tech.
Vrious Rand and OZ studies have shown that the Chinese,with their large inventory,especially those of reverse engineered Flankers,in a firefight,outnumber US and friendly forces,giving them the advantage,and with the future advent of its own stealth fighter,will reduce the the gap too.

Bearing these factors in mind,the IAF should not spend the major portion of its planned budget on only 4++ gen MMRCAs,when the LCA and FGFA also are required in significant numbers,not forgetting the super-Flankers and upgrded legacy aircraft like Jags,M-2000s and Fulcrums.The MMRCA will not give us a magic bullet,but the sum of all our assets will determine our capability against the combined threat from the Sino-Pak axis of evil.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 06 Dec 2011 20:57

French MP's visiting India
Business standard , Dec 6

[...]
Forissier is leading a delegation comprising Jean Launay, Christian Blanc and Jean-Francois Mancel on a six-day visit to India during which they will also tour Bengaluru, Chennai and Puducherry.

Asked about the Rafale bid for Indian Air Force contract for 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft, Forissier said he was confident that the French company would be successful.

"We are very confident because we believe that we have offered the best plane which is adapted to Indian needs," he said on the bids for the 126 MMRCA, winner of which is likely to be announced later this month.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... /152317/on

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Dec 2011 21:20

Philip,
The way US is wooing with JSF etc its critical to make India buy their wares. Lets face ti the Indian order will keep either French or Eurofighter in business. With Euro in blue funk and huge moentray issues looming, Indian order is significant.
Meantime recall India is investing in its own a/c with and without help.
Does it make sense to keep any of these others in business who can turnaround and sell to India's enemies? Its not like there is eminent danger right now or for sometime till teh world economy rebuilds over next two decades.

TSP collapse will need a lot of money just as East German integration did.

jai · Post by **jai** » 06 Dec 2011 23:50

ramana wrote:Philip,
The way US is wooing with JSF etc its critical to make India buy their wares. Lets face ti the Indian order will keep either French or Eurofighter in business. With Euro in blue funk and huge moentray issues looming, Indian order is significant.
Meantime recall India is investing in its own a/c with and without help.
Does it make sense to keep any of these others in business who can turnaround and sell to India's enemies? Its not like there is eminent danger right now or for sometime till teh world economy rebuilds over next two decades.

TSP collapse will need a lot of money just as East German integration did.

This does seem to be an opportunity to get what we really need - nuclear reactor tech for subs and carriers for example. While it may create logistical hurdles, if we plan to buy upto 200 planes, IMO, we should go for 100 each and get best of both worlds..and keep either looser from selling to lizard and get all the good techs that can help both tejas and amca- spectra, aesa, SCB etc etc..kill two birds with one stone, get all euro biggies in our folds of influence. Win favors while you can.

While some will say this will increase logistical issues, it should not matter much as iaf already has multiple types which will continue to stay/future acquisitions also are of multiple types. May derisk the mix further.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 07 Dec 2011 01:01

I think we are looking at only those technologies where are not up there yet.. and we are not in anyway intending to do a lizard type of re-engineering transactions.

lizard will not ask but will get it by any means of give and take, or it will poison and steal the technology. I think, we have an agenda here to upgrade ourselves in build up an infrastructure for the future. As rightly pointed out, turbines and test facilities for turbojet engines, and man power to develop advanced system gets drained off to advanced countries for salary sake, are the issues.

we pay billions for products, but would not pay our people would be bad karma in a sense. So, if we correct that, and get back on our heals, all we need is certain help to jump start to a level where we can take care of it. We can't and we may not have this comfort zone of putting money into these high price products, without looking at in-house capabilities, in the future.

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 07 Dec 2011 01:11

Got a chance to talk to someone who worked on Eurofighter..... he mentioned that this will be last manned plane designed in Europe and it depends upon India what GoI can access from EADS and BAE etc. They will agree to whatever India will demand with consistency and seriously. Before signing just read the fine points carefully, as EURO countries needs money and they will try to suck last penny by showing fine prints. India can demand anything and everything, they will agree as they are already working on secret UAV program although it is not officially sectioned. ... oops said more then I wanted to say.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 07 Dec 2011 01:17

sope, it's a buy one, get one free deal then!

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 07 Dec 2011 05:47

merlin wrote:
you too are playing into col ajai shuklas words. mmrca deal cannot be abandoned now. it is in its last phase

I wonder if some in the IAF/MoD want the Gripen NG to be bought to scuttle the chances of the Tejas. Nothing else would explain the decision if the Gripen NG is selected after being eliminated.[/quote]

Aren't we getting a bit ahead of ourselves at this point by even thinking of a Gripen NG coming into the mix? In a couple of weeks (hopefully) there will be some leaks or better still, an official announcement on who is L1 and after that the price negotiations can begin. Whether those price negotiations will be scuttled by the MoF is too far into the future to hazard guesses about someone in the IAF/MoD wanting to scuttle the Tejas by bringing in the Gripen NG.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 07 Dec 2011 14:33

Yups, I believe we might as well get as much technology as we can from the European Union, while we can and they are willing to part with it for a price. Later, things may not be so easy.

If the order is split, what is the mix that you, the reader would like to see in the 126 planes being ordered?

40 Rafale 80(..) EF ? [France: Germany+UK+Italy/Spain]

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Dec 2011 16:03

Kumar,it's not that secret.Many moons ago the Brits also said that the EF would perhaps be the last major manned aircraft programme,with UCAVs being the future.This is becoming more relevant,with the advent of PGMs,stand-off LR missiles,etc.,which make even legacy aircraft the equivalent of "snipers".Unmanned aircraft are less likely to provoke outrage when shot down because of the absence of a pilot,who could be used for propaganda purposes.In fact the AMCA should be an unmanned programme,as I said years ago,usingthe tech and experince gained on the LCA programme.to develop a twin-engined UCAV equivalent.

Ramanna,exactly why I've said that we shouldn't spend a huge amount of 4++ gen-tech which will be outdated a decade from now.We already have a 5th-gn programme which we can leverage for future indigenous efforts.If a concerted effort is made to acellerate the LCA MK-2 programme,it could become a cost-effective option in giving the IAF the low-end "safety in numbers" tail,while other programms give us the edge in quality.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 07 Dec 2011 19:45

One doubt I have. How safe and secure is the UCAV communications at present? Do we have any secure communication tech with us now or have capability develop one in near future? Or they will be simply programmed to do x,y, and z tasks and come back ?

koti · Post by **koti** » 07 Dec 2011 20:04

^^ The communication itself is pretty safe from interception given the yet powerful encryption techniques. However, the signal is still prone to jamming by using powerful white noise sources rendering even frequency hopping techniques crippled.

Pre programmed flight path can however take over in such a condition and act as planned(abort mission or go ahead to primary or secondary targets on its own)

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 07 Dec 2011 20:14

Philip ... Public media can print anything what they want... but this information is more accurate and first hand (too me at least). I would like to join the band wagon of people who would like to see MMRCA killed and go for LCA-Mk2. As this deal is already late ( 1 decade for selection and by plane will join in next 3 years when it will be completed only God knows....) I am all for LCA-mk2 but it is still on drawing board and it will be production ready in 5 years if nothing really bad happens and IAF supports it.

But on other side, if we read latest comments of China's president they are not very positive... so better to prepare then buy something during war time (will cost 10 times). So I will let MoD and GoI, decide if they should buy or scrap this deal.

maha ... split is not a good deal ... as we will get nothing but will pay more without any much advantage. It is only myth that more different types of planes .. means more ToT. ToT is good but maintenance and operations is a night mare. We need something using which we can fight a war.

koti · Post by **koti** » 07 Dec 2011 20:48

Philip wrote:Ramanna,exactly why I've said that we shouldn't spend a huge amount of 4++ gen-tech which will be outdated a decade from now.We already have a 5th-gn programme which we can leverage for future indigenous efforts.If a concerted effort is made to acellerate the LCA MK-2 programme,it could become a cost-effective option in giving the IAF the low-end "safety in numbers" tail,while other programms give us the edge in quality

Sir, I think we are loosing sight here in pursuit of perfection.

MMRCA in its current form should be able to counter anything in PLAAF and PAF.
Both the planes in their current form are capable of doing that. They sure will be able to do that in this decade and the next too.
The emerging threats like the J20 can be and will be addressed by emerging Pak-fa, AMCA as time progresses.

We should not be perusing perfection ignoring immediate capability handicap.

Even the mighty USAF is still upgrading its SH and Falcons despite the presence of Raptor or the JSF in its final stages. The PLAAF is still inducting the MKK's, J11's and J10's by the scores just as we speak.

Even though LCA Mk II is promising enough on paper, hoping it to match the current MMRCA contenders that had higher budgets, more skilled labor, experience and requirements is mere over expectation.

There is nothing wrong in aiming high with the LCA Mk II, but we should only do it once we have an airforce that can afford its failure.

saptarishi · Post by **saptarishi** » 07 Dec 2011 20:55

i do not know why people are assuming that gripen is still in fray for this mmrca. this is absurd.gripen guys are doing their publicity stunts.thats it.

RKumar wrote: I would like to join the band wagon of people who would like to see MMRCA killed and go for LCA-Mk2. As this deal is already late ( 1 decade for selection and by plane will join in next 3 years when it will be completed only God knows....) I am all for LCA-mk2 but it is still on drawing board and it will be production ready in 5 years .

.

and regarding cancelling this mmrca stuff and going in for lca mk2.i would like to say that su-30mki,lca mk2,mmrca,fgfa,amca.all these jets are of different categories. while in fourth gen category su-30mki assumes the heavy bird role ,the mmrca and lca occupy the medium and light weight category respectively as you all know. it is indispensable that according to iaf requirements all the categories are filled. so question of going for mk2 tejas by cancelling mmrca is out of question.both belong to different categories