PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

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shaardula
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby shaardula » 17 Aug 2012 18:37

in addition to manufacturing issues discussed earlier, it also prolly depends on the type of product. forging luxury bags is one thing, but forging essentials like fone is another. most people, who buy productivity widgets like fones, and tools buy them because it can increase their productivity.

i would think it is not just about making a product that looks like the original but also behaves like it through its life-cycle -- customer service, grievance addressal, repair, etc. most forgers are prolly small time chinese manufacturers who cannot do this. they are prolly doing this for tactical reasons like maximizing the utility of their capabilities and assets, and are prolly not in it for strategic reasons like making a name in the market.
Last edited by shaardula on 17 Aug 2012 18:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 17 Aug 2012 18:44

amit wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:Dude, we can rationalize what ever but the hard fact remains. Mumbai is a "septic tank" as described by a business persons wife. Chinease cities are much better managed and the people living there have access to basic facilities. Transportation is much better, both public and private. Housing is in oversupply, office space and industrial areas are available at a fair price. There is less petty corruption.

It is high time the Indians start to look them self in the mirror and admit how bad things are. India could have been far ahead of China, and it will have no problem catching up. India just needs a fair legal system a working administration. Sadly Indians are fooled into believing that they have democracy. Actually Indians usually have the choice of electing a thief, who will loot as much as possible while he can. Modi, Nitish Kumar, and a few other remain acceptions.


Bhai saab,

Crapping about India in public while praising the heights of achievement of the CCP in China may make you feel good but amounts to zilch unless you can suggest how things can be remedied in India. Of course I'm presuming you're one of those Indians whom, as you've advised, have looked into the mirror and had their tubelights turned on.

When you say something like this: "India could have been far ahead of Chine and it will have no problem catching up".

You should be more specific on which areas India "could have been far ahead" and why you think "it will have no problem catching up". Unless you do that it just sounds like a huge motherhood statement.

I guess you should understand you're not the only one who's been to China. You should also understand there are folks who have devoted a considerable amount of both free time as well as professional time to analyse the phenomenon of China and the lessons that India can learn from that.

PS: I see you did not even understand the point I was making. This time (and for the last time) let me crunch it and put it in bold: The poor in Indian cities are better off than the poor in Chinese cities because they have a say in their future and possible development of their localities (the Pudong vs Dharavi comparison). So when a majority of your countrymen are poor, rather than uber rich, cities that are more poor-friendly, despite being ugly and infrastructure-wise underdeveloped, are better places.


I would agree that the only advantage the indian poors have is a platform ( media, vote, jhola walas etc ) to mount street protest on the govt and it stops at that. But I would argue that the poors would rather look for things like access to clean water, cheap energy, cheap education, cheap transport etc. I am sure GOI will be beaten pants down by GOC in all these parameters and global indexes like HDI are ample proof. We can continue to leave in denial or act by doing what AN and BRD are advocating that the sleeping/calaous/chalta hai janata come out and take a stand and throw the dynasty out. If the mango folks can install a nationalist GOI for 10years then we will make a lot of progress in catching up on these parameters but till that time it will be loot of public money in the name of creating a welfare state!

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby shaardula » 17 Aug 2012 19:01

^^^ that assumes that the chinese disenfranchised and their indian counterparts are starting from the same position. they dont. in addition to media, vote, jholawalas, indians can and do enjoy political, adminstrative and executive power, and they participate in the associate power struggle.

in as much as we are both asian countries, it is true that there is nepotism etc. but i think we have managed to bring in a much larger and representative group of elites than the chinese have.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 17 Aug 2012 20:53

I'm of the opinion that we are growing as fast as we physically can. We could grow faster but that will be more pain inflicted as well. All these farmers protests and power blackouts and Manesar mayhem type incidents are push back as we try to flog the donkey into moving faster.

Now we could get of the donkey and get on an Arabian stallion, which is what the NRI folk are doing, but for desh we have to deal with the donkey.

It is useful to remember that in year 2000 China electric capacity was 250,000 MWhr. Indias present electric capacity is ~ 240,000 MWhr including private generation.

But then from Year 2000 to year 2012 China's electric capacity went from 250,000 to 750,000. They added 500,000 MWhr of capacity in 12 years. At a rate of 50,000 MWhr per year.

We should pause and think of the consequences if we tried to follow them through this particular rabbit hole. I would like to but I'm deeply conflicted. I think GOI is deeply conflicted about this as well. GOC is not conflicted at all.

Take a look at the spike in coal consumption this caused.

Image

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Rishirishi » 18 Aug 2012 04:21

Theo_Fidel wrote:Rishi,

What portion of China do you think is First world. From what I saw in Wuhan I doubt it is more than 5%.


That is a very good question.
I do not think any part of China can be compared to the "first world" (appart from Hong kong). The legal system, political and standard of living is not in place.

But there is a huge gap between the first world and India. 50% of china is somewhere in between, would be my guess. Again, China has mostly solved the issues of power, transport, water, and litracy and is well placed in housing. But they lack a legal system. The lack of political freedom, is also a problem

personally i believe the only thing hindering Indian in becoming the next developed nation is the legal system, as well as corruption. I believe that corruption is deliberately maintained, by the political class. The lokpal issue should be an eye opener.

Already in 2001 i had predicted the colapse of Chinease economy.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Rishirishi » 18 Aug 2012 04:32

amit wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:Dude, we can rationalize what ever but the hard fact remains. Mumbai is a "septic tank" as described by a business persons wife. Chinease cities are much better managed and the people living there have access to basic facilities. Transportation is much better, both public and private. Housing is in oversupply, office space and industrial areas are available at a fair price. There is less petty corruption.

It is high time the Indians start to look them self in the mirror and admit how bad things are. India could have been far ahead of China, and it will have no problem catching up. India just needs a fair legal system a working administration. Sadly Indians are fooled into believing that they have democracy. Actually Indians usually have the choice of electing a thief, who will loot as much as possible while he can. Modi, Nitish Kumar, and a few other remain acceptions.


Bhai saab,


PS: I see you did not even understand the point I was making. This time (and for the last time) let me crunch it and put it in bold: The poor in Indian cities are better off than the poor in Chinese cities because they have a say in their future and possible development of their localities (the Pudong vs Dharavi comparison). So when a majority of your countrymen are poor, rather than uber rich, cities that are more poor-friendly, despite being ugly and infrastructure-wise underdeveloped, are better places.


What say does the poor have? What say does even the middle class or even the rich have? How many wanted Lokpal? will the poor win a court battle against anyone richer? Can the poor admit their kids to good schools? What type of medical care is available? What type of protection does a domestic servant have against a rapist employer? how does this become "poor friendly"?

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby KLP Dubey » 18 Aug 2012 05:16

Theo_Fidel wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:So my observation was more from that angle that if the CHINESE do have access to the specs and are able to build things from the specs then what is preventing them to launch these products in other markets? If SAMSUNG can do a GALAXY on IPHONE then what is PREVENTING CHINA. Some thing is missing here.


I think the mistake you are making is in thinking all those look alike products are by a single manufacturer. It is not unusual to have 200 different companies cloning the same product. every Chinese company that tries to brand itself is immediately overwhelmed by the clone shops. Branding is only possible with intellectual protection. Forget products even Ph.D thesis's are being cloned and are overwhelming the university system.


I was in Nilgiri biosphere reserve recently and was talking to a former Project Tiger forest official. Apparently some Chinese officials showed up a few years ago and laughed at the forest department for wasting so much energy protecting a few tigers. "We are breeding so many tigers in China (BTW their body parts are sold to Chinese quack doctors). We can sell you 300 tigers to populate your national park".

The difference between a "real" national park and a "fake" one (with bred-in-captivity tigers let loose for enjoyment of tourists and no concern for their long-term survival), was beyond the intelligence - or perhaps the conscience - of these morons.

Good day,

Kishan Lal

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby RoyG » 21 Aug 2012 03:45

Atleast they'll still have tigers.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby KLP Dubey » 21 Aug 2012 08:05

RoyG wrote:Atleast they'll still have tigers.


The NBR has more than 300 wild tigers (+ unknown number of cubs) today, up more than 20% from five years ago. Prey is abundant. The last thing anyone needs is fake chinese tigers to populate it. Those bred-in-captivity chinese tigers will hardly survive more than 6 months in the wild. Our desi wild tigers are highly territorial beasts and will make short work of them. Not to speak of elephants.

If at all it is desired to repopulate a depleted reserve with tigers, it is a long and painstaking process (taking decades) with each animal having to be taught to survive in the wild. One can't just get a consignment of 300 captive tigers from Pandaland and release them. You missed the point.

Ram ram,

KL

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Sri » 21 Aug 2012 12:08

Rishirishi wrote:
personally i believe the only thing hindering Indian in becoming the next developed nation is the legal system, as well as corruption. I believe that corruption is deliberately maintained, by the political class. The lokpal issue should be an eye opener.

Already in 2001 i had predicted the colapse of Chinease economy.


Rishi Jee, Fundamentally, comparing India and China is like comparing chalk and cheese. Indian System can't be replicated there and there's can't be replicated here.

What I am happy at is the fact that both races are growing. one is experiencing a tremendous growth and is grabbing the opportunity by it's horn. Other is in the wings, warming up. Short term yes we all can agree that Chinese system is delivering. Long term I am sure stats in both the countries will mirror each other. It's the destiny.

Rishi do not fret as yet. If you are below 50 right now, in your lifetime, you will most likely see a Bharatha right up there setting standards and pushing humanity forward, like we have done for 1000s of years.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Singha » 21 Aug 2012 12:12

5 Cheen residents were caught by blr customs trying to slip some 300kg of red sandalwood in the luggage. the flight was blr - chengdu.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Raja Bose » 21 Aug 2012 14:06

^^^300 kgs?! :shock: What were they carrying it in I wonder.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby krishnan » 21 Aug 2012 15:36

Raja Bose wrote:^^^300 kgs?! :shock: What were they carrying it in I wonder.


red sandalwood

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Rahul M » 21 Aug 2012 20:29

x-post

had a long series of discussions with a chinese mainland student (studies in one of the ivy league madrassas in unkil sam) over the last week.
fellow is nominally a communist without being blind about it.

some points, many of which we have already discussed here :

a) he describes the system in china as bureaucratic capitalism

b) confirms the points regarding forced govt takeover of lands with bare minimum compensation to the poor farmers or original owners. there is no concept of rule of law. people can't even think of suing the govt.

c) one of his friends was at the foxconn factory and found it difficult to bear the level of abuse. left quickly. when I asked if it was the exception or the usual, he says the foxconn facility is among the best, comparatively speaking. of course, workers have no rights.

d) situation in countryside : can be pretty bad. much worse than what CCP wants people to believe. the hukou system, even though watered down a bit in recent years, prevents families of rural workers to get any kind of public service like education, healthcare etc if they work outside their region.

e) the main problem is complete lack of accountability at all levels and the opacity of the system. in his mid 20's from a relatively well to do and well connected family (his parents are in the party) he has never taken part in any electoral process. this is the situation of the overwhelming majority of the people. people are appointed, not elected. party is the only way to get ahead in life, unless one is good in academics and sometimes even then.

f) china's young gen don't believe in communism, they only want to become like US.

g) censorship : confirms the existence of drones (said they are paid very little :P ) and some other strange forms like certain numbers are censored (before the tiananmen anniv, 4 and 6 for 4th June are not allowed to go through even as part of other numbers, say phone numbers)

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby nakul » 21 Aug 2012 20:32

Rahul M saar, where are his loyalties? Will he be willing to go back to his country or stay in the massa? Perhaps that might tell us how seriously the chinese take their shortcomings.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Rahul M » 21 Aug 2012 20:35

in the short term he will continue in US except for a sabbatical to stay at home for sometime (being an only son staying away from family).

long term, he says things are only going to get worse, he sees no silver lining on the horizon.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Suraj » 21 Aug 2012 20:37

Loyalties ? Their concept of loyalty is not a personal expression. The state can demand it of you, and threaten your family and possessions in China if you fail to comply. It doesn't matter whether or not he's a US citizen. That, to them, is just a piece of paper; he's a Chinese, period.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby vina » 23 Aug 2012 09:53

True state of Chinese Domestic Auto industry .China Auto Joint Ventures Failing to Build Brands

By Bloomberg News - Aug 22, 2012

Liu Yu said he was making a generous offer: a $1 million subsidy to entrepreneurs willing to build a dealership for BAIC Motor Corp.’s Beijing car brand. Though that covers about three-fourths of the cost of each outlet, the BAIC deputy sales chief has struggled to recruit the 150 candidates he wants by year-end, whereas BAIC’s parent company has no trouble finding dealers for its joint ventures with Daimler AG (DAI) and Hyundai Motor Co. (005380), even without subsidies.

“China’s indigenous cars are the lowest in the food chain,” said Liu. “Many consumers are biased against them.”

Three decades after China implemented rules requiring foreign automakers to form joint ventures with domestic manufacturers to build cars in the country, the strategy appears to be failing in one of its key goals. While the policy has attracted investment and created millions of jobs, it has done little to help the Chinese build strong brands.

“We have been trying to exchange market access for technology, but we have barely gotten hold of any key technologies in the past 30 years,” said Liao Xionghui, vice president of Lifan Industry Group Co., a car and motorcycle manufacturer based in the southwestern municipality of Chongqing. “China’s auto industry is still in its infancy. How can a two-year-old beat someone in his thirties?”

Chinese auto brands have lost a quarter of their market share in the past two years as consumers choose vehicles made by foreigners such as General Motors Co. (GM) and Volkswagen AG. (VOW) As many as half of China’s 171 domestic automakers may go out of business in the next three years, the state-backed auto association predicts, as foreign brands push into smaller cities.
Lost Share

Foreign and joint-venture brands had 63 percent of the passenger-vehicle market in July, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Domestic brands saw their share decline to 37 percent from 49.2 percent in January 2010.

“There is a belief at this point in time that international brands have more technology, in some cases better craftsmanship,” Joe Hinrichs, president of Ford’s Asia Pacific and Africa region, said in an interview last month.

The joint-venture policy has failed to create competitive brands because the Chinese have grown dependent on profits from manufacturing for the foreigners, neglecting their own marques, said Jeff Chung at Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Ltd.

“Foreign partners are not willing to transfer their key technology to local partners, and most state-owned companies don’t really care that much,” said Chung. “Their focus is more on sales volume and a high utilization rate.”
Largest Market

There’s little doubt that the joint-venture policy has helped build the industry in China. The country overtook the U.S. in 2009 as the world’s largest market for new vehicles, with sales of more than 18 million units last year. The industry today accounts for an estimated 30 million jobs, or 11 percent of the total workforce, government statistics show. Most major automakers today assemble vehicles in China, with about 410 models available, the most in any country, according to J.D. Power & Associates.

And Chinese cars have improved over the years. Vehicle owners reported a 30 percent drop in problems with domestic makes in 2011, due to improvements in the exterior, engine and transmission, according to J.D. Power’s annual dependability study. Still, problems with local nameplates exceed those of foreign brands by 75 percent.
Product Perception

“It is not just one product that changes perception but it is many products over two to three model cycles, five to seven years,” said Charles Mills, vice president of the global retail practice at J.D. Power Commercial Consulting (Shanghai) Co. “Even if they come up with a beautiful skin of a vehicle, the people still have to believe the vehicle is going to deliver as good an experience as something else.”

To burnish their appeal, some Chinese automakers have brought in star designers from abroad. BAIC’s state-owned parent in April hired Leonardo Fioravanti, who designed the Ferrari Daytona, as chief design officer. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW)’s China partner, Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd. (1114), lured Dimitri Vicedomini from design house Pininfarina SpA. (PINF) Great Wall Motor Co., China’s biggest maker of sport-utility vehicles, appointed former Mercedes-Benz designer Andreas Deufel as design director last year.
National Champions

China’s automakers are also looking overseas, with exports projected to jump by 50 percent this year, extending record shipments in 2011, according to the official trade chamber. Russia was the biggest export destination for China-made vehicles, while Brazil posted the fastest growth. Those ambitions, though, may have been dealt a blow after Australia this month ordered a recall of 23,000 vehicles made by Great Wall and Chery Automobile Co. that were found to have parts containing the carcinogen asbestos.

China’s government has partially met its 2011 targets to have two to three national automakers with annual sales exceeding 2 million units and four to five with more than 1 million deliveries each.

SAIC (600104) Motor Corp., Dongfeng Motor Group Co. (489), China FAW Group Corp. and China Changan Automobile Group Co. sold more than 2 million vehicles last year, according to auto association data. Among the rest, only BAIC topped the 1 million-unit mark.

To encourage consolidation, the industry ministry said last month that it will revoke production permits of automakers that make fewer than 1,000 passenger vehicles annually for two consecutive years.
Indigenous Brands

Yet even the stars haven’t fared well with cars they developed themselves. SAIC, Dongfeng and China FAW Group generated less than 10 percent of their profits last year from selling their own passenger-vehicle brands, according to China FAW deputy engineer-general Zhou Yongjiang.

SAIC suspended production of its “Shanghai” brand in 1991 after it started making Santana cars with Volkswagen. In 2007 it introduced its Roewe nameplate, which sold 47,832 vehicles last year, or about 1.3 percent of the combined sales of its ventures with GM and VW. Dongfeng, which works with Nissan Motor Co., Honda Motor Co., PSA Peugeot Citroen and Kia Motors Corp. (000270), derived about 66 percent of its sales from foreign brands.

For BAIC’s Liu, who previously worked at Chinese ventures of VW and Hyundai, making the new “Beijing” brand stand out among the hundreds crowding the market remains an uphill task.

Our margins are next to nothing,” Liu said. “The difficulties are way more than I previously imagined and we are struggling to find solutions.


And here we had esteemed 50 cent'ers claiming that auto design can be done by some sophomores in out of their colleges :lol: :lol: ! Well, they seem to be paying top dollar for name brand folks from abroad!

Lets face it folks. The Chinese auto industry is a lame duck. No technology, no real engineering skills, no design ability, nothing. The Tata /Ashok Leyland/ Eicher/Mahindra/TVS/Bajaj guys are streets ahead in terms of capability and can go and stare the likes of Honda in the eye. No way , any Chinese company can engineer an SUV 500 or something like an Indica Vista, leave out Nano, by themselves. They basically have no skills in designing and building a platform de novo.

For eg, AL is going to debut with their new Neptune engine with full electronic controls and bench marked against the global best out there in terms of reliability, durability, emissions and most important fuel consumption out there. Can the Chinese industry do something similar ? Don't think so. From the looks of it, they are good are running the JV plants at high utilization and volumes .. ie basic manufacturing , but not much else.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby vina » 23 Aug 2012 09:56

On another note , check out these scenes from China. They could be from any city in India! A cycle rickshaw and a high end car juxtaposed together!

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iUgolVzixGsA.jpg
http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iExrRuk_oEHQ.jpg

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Singha » 23 Aug 2012 12:35

their car market is oriented toward sedans in cities. big roads and all that.

but even in big cities like nanjing there are "autos" which consist of a front end motorcyle and back end passenger wagon. some towns in india might have it.

motorcycle are banned from many CBD areas I think, hence the 'neater' looks in many pics.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby vina » 24 Aug 2012 05:26

China's Economy Beseiged - Confronts Mounting Pile of Unsold Goods

After three decades of torrid growth, China is encountering an unfamiliar problem with its newly struggling economy: a huge buildup of unsold goods that is cluttering shop floors, clogging car dealerships and filling factory warehouses.

The glut of everything from steel and household appliances to cars and apartments is hampering China’s efforts to emerge from a sharp economic slowdown. It has also produced a series of price wars and has led manufacturers to redouble efforts to export what they cannot sell at home.

The severity of China’s inventory overhang has been carefully masked by the blocking or adjusting of economic data by the Chinese government — all part of an effort to prop up confidence in the economy among business managers and investors -- Yawwnn.. Old Chinese Game of Smoke and Millors onree.


“Across the manufacturing industries we look at, people were expecting more sales over the summer, and it just didn’t happen,” said Anne Stevenson-Yang, the research director for J Capital Research, an economic analysis firm in Hong Kong. With inventories extremely high and factories now cutting production, she added, “Things are kind of crawling to a halt.”


Ah, I see. So Yindoo Banias cut back production in the face of slowing demand and reported lower growth, while Deal Tarrel Than Mountain Biladels pumped up output and stuffed the channels resulting in a mountain of inventory and reported "stlong glowth" .. Velly Velly nice.


Problems in China give some economists nightmares in which, in the worst case, the United States and much of the world slip back into recession as the Chinese economy sputters, the European currency zone collapses and political gridlock paralyzes the United States.


Chinese export growth, a mainstay of the economy for the last three decades, has slowed to a crawl. Imports have also practically stopped growing, particularly for raw materials like iron ore for steel making, as industrialists have lost confidence that they will be able to sell if they keep factories running. Real estate prices have slid sharply, although there have been hints that they might have bottomed out in July, and money has been leaving the country through a variety of legal and illegal channels.

All, all the Commie Party rats and the "Guangxi Network" shysters deserting a sinking ship eh or wot?


“My supplier’s inventory is huge because he cannot cut production — he doesn’t want to miss out on sales when the demand comes back,” he said.

Part of the issue is that the Chinese government’s leaders have decided to put quality-of-life concerns ahead of maximizing economic growth when it comes to two of the country’s largest industries: housing and autos.


The Chinese auto industry has grown tenfold in the last decade to become the world’s largest, looking like a formidable challenger to Detroit. But now, the Chinese industry is starting to look more like Detroit in its dark days in the 1980s.

Inventories of unsold cars are soaring at dealerships across the nation, and the Chinese industry’s problems show every sign of growing worse, not better. So many auto factories have opened in China in the last two years that the industry is operating at only about 65 percent of capacity — far below the 80 percent usually needed for profitability.



Automakers in China have reported that the number of cars they sold at wholesale to dealers rose by nearly 600,000 units, or 9 percent, in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year.

Yet dealerships’ inventories of new cars rose 900,000 units, to 2.2 million, from the end of December to the end of June. While part of the increase is seasonal, auto analysts say that the data shows that retail sales are flat at best and most likely declining — a sharp reversal for an industry accustomed to double-digit annual growth.


Ah. I see. The 9% growth of autos by the manufacturers doesn't end up in the hands of the consumer, but ends up in the dealer's stockyards! velly velly good. Jai Hu. Jai Mao.

Officially, though, most of the inventory problems are a nonissue for the government.

Of course. If there are production cuts, then there will be trouble in the "harmonious society"

The Public Security Bureau, for example, has halted the release of data about slumping car registrations. Data on the steel sector has been repeatedly revised this year after a new method showed a steeper downturn than the government had acknowledged. And while rows of empty apartment buildings line highways outside major cities all over China, the government has not released information about the number of empty apartments since 2008.


Ah, I see, car registrations are given out by the "security bureau" and when the data isn't good, doctor or don't give it out. Nice..

“Inventory used to flow in and out,” said Mr. Wu, the faucet and sink sales manager. “Now, it just sits there, and there’s more of it.”

Indeed. Old Chinese saying.

    Clogged-
    Faucet floods and stinks up the entire place with effluvium
    Inventory flows in and out like in a faucet normally- opprobium

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Kukreja » 24 Aug 2012 21:54

"tofu engineering"

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/25/world ... cerns.html

One of the longest bridges in northern China collapsed on Friday, just nine months after it opened, triggering a storm of criticism from Chinese Internet users and underscoring questions about the quality of construction in China’s rapid expansion of its infrastructure.

A nearly 330-foot-long section of a ramp of the eight-lane Yangmingtan Bridge in the city of Harbin dropped 100 feet to the ground. Four trucks plummeted with it, resulting in three deaths and five injuries. :(

According to the official Xinhua news agency, the Yangmingtan Bridge was the sixth major bridge in China to collapse since July 2011. Chinese officials have tended to blame the collapses on overloaded trucks, and did so again on Friday. :eek:

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Hari Seldon » 25 Aug 2012 05:50

Sadly, this dhaga has lost its luster sans 'em panda dlones. PRC must really be in dire straits to stop paying whatever pittance they give to keep face, no? Either that, or they have given up on BR as unable (or unworthy) of investing in further re-education efforts.

pentaiah
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby pentaiah » 25 Aug 2012 06:51

Image

In this image posted by Vina

Notice two things

1) The sign board is in English
so must be suburbs of a metro city
and the guy is wearing headphones listening to mp3 or Apple iPod rip off
2) The Slack in the Rickshaw chain is way too high

must have an idler sprocket to guide it to driving axle sprocket
or must be a geared cycle rickshaw like the ones in NYC


In the second picture the pink car is a BMW Mini or rip off there of

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Hari Seldon » 25 Aug 2012 14:17

The slimy briturd channel Al jazeera now pukes bile on noble china's mighty economy by subtle doubt-casting and all only.

China: Broken Dreams

Despite the country's rapid economic growth, many young Chinese are growing disillusioned as they struggle to find jobs.

Although the nation's economy has expanded to more than $7 trillion and is poised to overtake the US in the next decade as the world's largest, fewer Chinese feel they are sharing in the prosperity.

A sense of disillusionment is spreading, particularly among the post-1980 generation, who are well-educated and mobile but still struggle to find profitable jobs.

Signs that the economy is slowing only add to the malaise. The Chinese government predicts the economy will grow by 7.5 per cent in 2012, down from 9.2 per cent last year, which would be the slowest growth rate since 1990. Economists say this could mean the loss of two million jobs.

At the same time a record number of new graduates are looking for work. Some 25 million Chinese will be on the job hunt this year. Even those who find work are frequently disappointed.

Surveys show that young Chinese office workers in big cities are widely unhappy. Most complain of a feeling of insecurity.

After two decades of economic reform, per capita GDP has risen 13-fold, and average salaries in major cities are on par with those in many developed countries. The post-80s generation, the first to come of age in this era of opportunity, has been raised on a belief that if one can do well in school, graduate from a good university and work hard on his or her career, one can enjoy a measure of success.

Instead, many find themselves squeezed by skyrocketing housing costs, rising prices for basic necessities and family pressures. As a large percentage of the post-80s generation are only children, they alone will be expected to provide for their parents and older relatives.


Notice the psy-ops. Talks of *feelings* of disillusionment, insecurity etc. All touchy feely softy stuff that's amenable to manipulation and spin. And no wonder since the slimy Aljazeera has no hard data to attack noble PRC with. Hah.

As many as three million young Chinese professionals toil in slum-like conditions in cramped housing on the outskirts of big cities. They are known as 'ant tribes,' a term coined by scholar Lian Si, China's foremost researcher on post-80s graduates.

"They share every similarity with ants," writes Lian. "They live in colonies in cramped areas. They're intelligent and hardworking, yet anonymous and underpaid."

Li Zhirui from China's northeast is one of them. Home is an eight square metre space outside Beijing that costs 500 Chinese yuan per month, a quarter of his salary. He dreams of one day buying an apartment, but with average real estate prices in the capital soaring to more than 20,000 yuan per square metre, he could be in for a very long wait.

He has already lost his fiancée, who dumped him when he refused to buy a second-hand car and an engagement ring.
The experiences of Li and other 'ant tribes' resonate strongly with young Chinese and have spawned a popular song and a TV series called Struggle of the Ant Tribe.

But for some despair takes over. Suicide has become the biggest cause of death for Chinese between 15 and 34 years of age.

In a recent trend, some young graduates are deciding to flee the big cities and instead seek opportunity in smaller cities and towns. But there, too, they are frustrated, as they discover that good diplomas - and even ability - do not open doors. Local networks and family background do.

Leading Chinese sociologist Guo Yuhua calls this phenomenon of young Chinese "escaping and returning" an example of widespread disappointment that is spreading across China. She says people are bitter when they see their social status languishing in contrast to the "rise of a great and powerful nation".


More nautanki by the slimy brits to stir trouble in peaceful and harmonious china, no doubt. aakthoo.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Singha » 25 Aug 2012 17:48

looking at the bridge collapse in nytimes photo the roadway looks perfectly intact. it came off at the supporting pillars where I think huge bolts and nuts/plates are supposed to anchor it securely to the pillar.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/201 ... pup-v2.jpg

Theo saar will give the civil engineer a real hiding for this one :twisted:

Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 26 Aug 2012 08:42

Singha,

With large structures thermal & vibration movement means joints can not be rigidly connected. Esp. long-span concrete depends on simple gravity to keep the viaducts in place on bearing pads. Shear pins and keys are some times used in seismic areas but are not required otherwise.

It is not wise to speculate but usually these things happen in China due to 2-3 factors.
- Tendency to copy designs and push it further without understanding.
- tendency to used shoddy materials.
- tendency to not test anything.

I can see signs of all three here. The collapsed section looks like a simple continuous span. The media is wrong to call it a suspended span or a cantilever span. it most definitely is not either. The two center columns only provide vertical load supports. ALL other forces from shear to overturning to vibration to moment forces are being transferred through the span to the end bearing pier and cantilever arms. IMO while this might work at smaller scales at 300 foot span it is dicey to put so much stress on the end arms. There are images of the rebar at the end arms that show very inadequate reinforcing though further investigation would be warranted. The spacing in particular seems to vary greatly which points to extremely shoddy workmanship. I'm baffled that concrete can turn to dust like that. The aggregate seems to be lacking as well. I would have loved to do the accident analysis report on this one. It would have made an excellent book as well. Shame that the Panda overlords don't make the slightest efforts to investigate and learn and reveal. I think this is the damning picture.

IMHO a full independent investigation would show that this entire bridge should be condemned due to design failure and replaced. Fat chance of such an investigation.

Image

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Raja Bose » 26 Aug 2012 09:07



Is that a real Mini Cooper or a Chipanda copy? Hard to tell sometimes from far. The shade of pink definitely makes me suspicious.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Neela » 27 Aug 2012 16:48



Problems in China give some economists nightmares in which, in the worst case, the United States and much of the world slip back into recession as the Chinese economy sputters, the European currency zone collapses and political gridlock paralyzes the United States.

Not a fan of PRC but this kind of reporting is pretty lame.
From collapsed bridge->question overall Chinese infrastructure->doomsday scenario for US because of China.

Schadenfreude under the mask of opinion and reporting! Fat Amreekis are sore losers.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby krisna » 29 Aug 2012 22:37

Why Everyone Watching China Should Keep An Eye On The Price Of Pig
Pigs are an unlikely barometer of inflationary pressure, but in China the country's declining herds are a matter of concern amid fears that a spike in pork sales could drive consumer prices higher next year.

Faced with sluggish domestic demand and the record cost of fattening animals - due to a steep rise in the price of corn and soybeans as a drought grips top exporter the United States - China's hog producers are being forced to sell their herds.


panda is the world's largest producer and consumer of pork.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Don » 31 Aug 2012 17:54

http://www.economist.com/node/21561887
China’s economy

Slow boats

The government has proved uncharacteristically hesitant to revive growth in China. That’s a good sign
Sep 1st 2012 | from the print edition

THE Chinese economy has a habit of beating expectations. For ten years in a row, from 2001 to 2010, its growth rate exceeded the IMF’s spring forecast, often by a big margin. But this year it is likely to disappoint. In recent months, industrial output has slowed sharply; stocks of unsold goods are piling up; and Shanghai’s stockmarket is at a three-year low. For the first time this century, in 2012 China’s growth rate may dip below 8%. With the world ever more dependent on China’s economy, that is worrying.

No economy can grow by double digits forever. As China’s economy matures and its labour force peaks, it is only natural that its pace of expansion eases. But the slowdown of recent quarters is cyclical, not structural, reflecting a loss of puff, rather than a shortening stride. China has seen a sharp drop in demand, as export sales fall and residential investment falters.

Some of the global headwinds buffeting China were foreseeable (see article). Nonetheless, most economists assumed the country’s policymakers could quickly revive growth if necessary. In China, in contrast to Japan or America, interest rates (and bank reserve requirements) have plenty of room to fall. China has an enviable amount of fiscal leeway. And its property slowdown largely reflects government curbs on speculative homebuying that officials could lift, if they so chose.

The government has done some of what was expected of it. It has cut rates and reserve requirements a bit. Infrastructure spending has picked up. In replacing business taxes with a value-added tax, the government has eased the fiscal burden on small firms. It is also happy to help first-time homebuyers.

But its actions have lacked any of the clarity or urgency of November 2008, when policymakers rallied the banks, state-owned enterprises and local officials to fend off the global financial crisis. That stimulus turned out to be bigger than the crisis warranted. This year, in the face of a much smaller shock, the government’s response has fallen short.

What explains its hesitation? Some now doubt the central bank’s ability to revive growth. Even if it did ease rates and other lending restraints, credit would not rebound, they argue, because the banks cannot find willing borrowers. As with the proverbial slow boat to China, there is a rip in the country’s monetary sails. Others blame a twist in the rudder: the policymakers who steer the economy are distracted and divided, preoccupied with this year’s handover of power, which is not going as smoothly as hoped.

Erring do

There is some truth in these arguments. But they are not the whole story. China’s policymakers are still capable of reviving growth. But some are no longer willing to do so at any cost. The divisions at the top are philosophical as well as political.

Economic expansion used to trump almost everything else. Keeping the growth rate up was second only to keeping the birth rate down on the list of priorities. But some Chinese policymakers now worry about China’s reliance on investment and about property speculation, which has priced some middle-class families out of big-city markets.

In the past, a Chinese government faced with a nasty downturn would already be repealing property curbs and appealing to state-owned firms to expand capacity. Such a clumsy, conventional response would no doubt revive growth, but would also delay the structural reforms, like financial liberalisation, that the country requires. Policymakers outside China may long for more decisive action. But if hesitation enables China to keep to the path of rebalancing its economy, it will be good news for everyone.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby kumarn » 05 Sep 2012 15:45

From very authentic sources:
Salary at companies like Foxconn ~ RMB1100/month
Salary at smaller companies ~ RMB 500/month
Normal working hours ~ 80+/week
Workers stay in very small dorm rooms with 6 bunk-beds. Same bed used by two diffeent persons in different shift. in same company, hubby and wife might be working but they will be staying in the respective male and female dorms.
Overall, unimaginable working conditions when compared to workers in the organised sector in desh.

Let me know if cheen-watcher rakshaks want any other relavant info.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby sanjaykumar » 06 Sep 2012 20:49

So the economist potificates on the Chinese economy. Do I recall reading an alrmist article on the over-heating Indian economy 2-3 years ago? With this excellent credibility, the economist should offer a corrective for the imploding British GDP.

Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 07 Sep 2012 09:52

kumarn,

Thanx for that info.
One of the Panda porkers had stupidly let this little piece of info slip earlier. Right after puffing his chest up and claiming '30 year world leading economy.'.
I think one of his supervisors then pulled the plug on that particular experiment and the porkers have disappeared in perfect sync. :roll:
BTW Foxconn India pays more to its workers.

If you can ask I have always been curious what CPC party folks make compared to the pleab's.
This is a completely opaque subject and I strongly suspect that most of those BMW's are actually going to the CPC overlords and not regular folk.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ArmenT » 07 Sep 2012 11:08

kumarn wrote:From very authentic sources:
Let me know if cheen-watcher rakshaks want any other relavant info.

Sure. Please post the sources here.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Christopher Sidor » 08 Sep 2012 03:43

China’s Stocks Rise Most in Eight Months on Stimulus Bets --- Bloomberg Dated 7-Sept-2012

I hope that they do launch the stimulus to keep up their growth. More than 4 years after Lehman collapsed, we still have not seen growth pick up. Now the worrying part is this
The road projects include highways in Zhejiang and Xinjiang provinces

This so-called Xinjinag is a province with which India shares a border. And moreover this stimulus is sounding just like the last one, more fixed-asset building. In one way it is good, as fixed assets once built last for years and right now they are cheap to build.

The problem is that China's economy instead of becoming more consumer-demand led is becoming more fixed-investment led. I know it takes time to move away from an export-led development to a more domestic-oriented development, but still by now we should have seen some progress.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Austin » 08 Sep 2012 14:42

Chinese Economy to Focus Inward – Hu Jintao

China will implement a broad range of measures to make its economy more domestic-focused, ensuring its continuing growth, Chinese President Hu Jintao said on Saturday.

Despite a GDP growth of 9.2 percent last year, lack of balance and sustainability in Chinese economy remains a major problem, the Chinese leader said, addressing a CEO summit that is part of APEC Leaders Week in Vladivostok in the Russian Far East.

To tackle the issue, the Chinese government will prioritize promoting home-driven growth, improving the social security system, developing human resources, continuing to open up China's economy for foreign investors and making China an innovation-driven country, Hu said.

He added that the shift of economic focus is expected to sustain China's growth, boosting retail sales by 15 percent in the next few years.

Hu also said a more balanced economy will allow China to maintain its foreign economic ties, with annual direct investment overseas expected to exceed $500 billion, adding that the reform will also yield benefits for APEC, whose business community will have the opportunity to capitalize on China's upcoming modernization.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby zlin » 08 Sep 2012 22:26

This is a very smart and necessary move to China at this moment

China's president says infrastructure development key to recovery
VLADIVOSTOK, Russia/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Chinese President Hu Jintao urged Asia-Pacific nations on Saturday to speed up infrastructure development to help face the "grave challenges" from the global economy, in comments that follow Beijing's unveiling of $157 billion in such projects.

The remarks at the annual Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit lent further weight to what analysts see as an increasingly vocal commitment from Beijing to stimulate the economy by leaning heavily on the construction of railroads, ports and other infrastructure.

China's economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has approved 60 infrastructure projects worth more than $150 billion. The news boosted asset prices from steel futures to stocks, especially of companies related to construction.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby zlin » 08 Sep 2012 22:29

China approves 25 urban rail projects to boost economy

BEIJING, Sept. 6 (Xinhua) -- China's top economic planning agency has approved 25 urban rail projects that could be worth more than 800 billion yuan (126.98 billion U.S. dollars).

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on Wednesday announced the approvals of project plans and feasibility reports for the 25 projects in cities including Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Lanzhou, Guangzhou and Xiamen, according to the NDRC's website.

The move marks the government's latest effort to stabilize economic growth when external demand remains weak as the U.S. economy has been struggling to gain traction and Europe is slipping toward a recession, Xu Changle, professor of regional economics at the East China Normal University.

China's economy grew by 7.6 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2012, its slowest pace in three years, official data shows.

Forty Chinese cities will have subway systems by 2020, bringing the total track length to 7,000 km, 4.3 times the current length, according to the China Association of Metros, an organization under the direct supervision of the NDRC.


The approved items are:

Changzhou rail transit short-term plan
Xiamen rail transit short-term plan
Shenyang rail transit short-term plan
Harbin rail transit short-term plan adjustment
Guangzhou rail transit short-term plan
Shanghai rail transit short-term plan adjustment
Lanzhou rail transit short-term plan
Taiyuan rail transit short-term plan
Shijiazhuang rail transit short-term plan
Jiangsu Yangtze River city cluster rail transit network
Chengdu subway line 3 phase I feasibility study report
Changchun subway line 2 phase I feasibility study report
Xi'an subway line 3 phase I feasibility study report
Tianjin subway line 5/6 adjustment and line 6 extension feasibility study report
Ningbo subway line 1 phase II feasibility study report
Guangzhou subway line 7 phase I feasibility study report
Suzhou subway line 2 extension feasibility study report
Shenzhen subway line 11 feasibility study report
Shenzhen subway line 7 feasibility study report
Qingdao subway line 2 phase I feasibility study report
Chengdu subway line 1 south extension and Ocean Park Station feasibility study report
Hangzhou subway line 1 franchise operaton project
Gantang-Weiwu (Gansu province) second line project (Railway project)
Huhhot-Baotou-Ordos (Inner Mongolia) city rail project (Railway project)
Suzhou subway line 4 and branch feasibility study report

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby zlin » 08 Sep 2012 22:34

12 of world's largest ports are located in China :)
Image
source: http://www.portofrotterdam.com/SiteColl ... _ports.pdf


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