PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Singha » 07 Jan 2013 11:04

the 'party elders' still seem like a feared force ... almost like a coven of vampire elders or tribal chiefs. I wonder whats the source of such power as they would hold no official or military post post-retirement. perhaps each gen holds some dossiers on the misdeeds of the next gen and this interlocking system of trust and implied threat keeps the peace.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 07 Jan 2013 11:38

chola wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:
Things will be cheap if manufactured locally argument does not fly - look at US, Dubai, Singapore or the western word. The currency has to be strong and that can be strong in a service driven model.



Locally made things are expensive in US, Dubai, Singapore or the western word because they are wealthy. Until you are wealthy, locally made things are cheaper simply because of transportation alone.

As to your second point. IT sits on top of infrastructure and manufactured goods made elsewhere. It does nothing but audits, tracks and organize physical wealth. It will always employ fewer people than the manufacturers.


What makes u feel that a GDP where service is 60% of the output will not make the currency strong and the folks weathy? US is a service based GDP, Singapores is same and these countries are wealthy.

For the second point, you are simply not seeing the facts and sticking to your lecture. If manufacturing could be the mass well paid job generator then 300m chinese would not be out of jobs when their country is the worlds larged manufaturer. Clearly the jobs created by manufacturing has saturated and cannot deal with huge work force of the size of China. Service will always sit on top of manufacturing as it requires innovation and highly skilled manpower but the fact that it services people makes it viral and can spread in nook and corner easily and create jobs rather than poluting manufacturing.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby member_20292 » 07 Jan 2013 11:40

Some countries do not want democracy. Some people have been historically ruled by kings, and like mono-culture. Let them be commie. How does it matter to us? It sets them up for a Japanese style asset price bubble and deflation (which , I am sure is coming ).

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 07 Jan 2013 11:58

chola wrote: Again, India is worthless as a pre-popositioning resource for any market outside SAARC because we don't have the knowledge resources and connections to the largest economies in Asia to our East. No one uses India to supply parts for Chinese, Korean or Japanese markets which constitute the third pole outside the US and Europe as the main consumer markets for MNCs.


I think it makes no sense to be a supplier to a Chinese manufacturer when we are competing with them in rest of the world. Why would TCS supply code modules to a Chinese IT company? Indian business see China as a competitor but partners in the European and US companies. The other reason is that fact that the countries u are refering to are above India in the top 10 manufacturing list and hence does not make sense to source manufactured items - at this stage - from india.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby wrdos » 07 Jan 2013 12:20

subhamoy.das wrote:What makes u feel that a GDP where service is 60% of the output will not make the currency strong and the folks weathy? US is a service based GDP, Singapores is same and these countries are wealthy.
For the second point, you are simply not seeing the facts and sticking to your lecture. If manufacturing could be the mass well paid job generator then 300m chinese would not be out of jobs when their country is the worlds larged manufaturer. Clearly the jobs created by manufacturing has saturated and cannot deal with huge work force of the size of China. Service will always sit on top of manufacturing as it requires innovation and highly skilled manpower but the fact that it services people makes it viral and can spread in nook and corner easily and create jobs rather than poluting manufacturing.


:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Sir, usually it would like the following.

1) poor countries, service >> manufacture
They usually have a larger service sector than the manufacture sector simply because they are not yet prepared to make the stuffs. Their service sector is relatively larger but the majority of it is simply the on-street selling. The other telling truth critical characteristic is that they usually have a relatively larger agriculture sector, often larger than the manufacture sector.

2) mid-level countries, service <= manufacture
As countries becoming more and more developed, the manufacturing sector start to catch up, and even overtake the service sector. The current China included. America before the WWII, Japan before the 1970s, South Korea before the 1990s are all like that.

3) high-level countries, service > manufacture
After moving up the value chain, the countries becoming even more developed, and richer than most of the other countries, they tend to import more and more manufactured products from oversea.

Sir, I am very sorry to say but the truth is that India belongs to the 1). Your service sector is larger not because your service is more developed, but simply because of the failure of your manufacture industry. Just like all of the other south Asian countries, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and so on.

All of the major advanced economies, US, West Europe, Japan, South Korea are becoming rich because their at least once success in the manufacture sector. Not a single country has become rich by outsourcing industry and I don't think India or the Philippians can make any differece in this sense.
Last edited by wrdos on 07 Jan 2013 12:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 07 Jan 2013 12:21

chola wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:
India's core strength is its national obsession with KNOWLEDGE. INDIA may be the only country where the GODDESS of KNOWLEDGE is worshiped all the way from the elementary schools to the Engineering schools.


Fine and poetic words which do us no good in this thread. Every country in the world, especially those in the developed world and the Far East is obsessed by KNOWLEDGE. Who are we kidding? In fact, we score nowhere close to what the chinis, the Japanese and the rest of the Far East in world wide exam studies.

I'm sorry but you can see in this thread those who understand cold hard economics, and Suraj is one of them, and those who depends on some wonderful exceptions that can push us forward. Sorry, when we identify the facts and understand the problem that is when we can move forward.

Again, the world is real and real wealth is dependent on things you can touch and feel. The virtual world that our IT industry depends on is firmly rooted in infrastructure and economic activity created in the US. Remove the US network infrastructure and the Fortune 500 and you have no work.

Sorry for becoming more India centric than CHINA.But the difference in the two civilizations and in what they excell is clear like a crystal.


We are all India centric. But for this thread to be more useful than a dung pile to bait 50-cent trolls then we need to at least understand the basics of the chini economy. Sales figures from the MNCs are one of the few things we can look at independent of the commie mouthpiece that we can look at to figure out something as simple as its size.


Your arrogance seems like you have been treated badly by service in life and so desparate to cling on to manufacturing as you savoir. Words like "pile of dung etc" is unacceptable and shows your lack of maturity. How old are u? 20+? Just by using the word "Again" will not make your view acceptable to others. Learn to live in a democratic world and respect others view unless u tell us that you are a renowed figure in the world econmic forum. Are u a Chines under and Indian name here?

You are not ready to give credit to the thousands who are doing innovation every day yet u will give the credit to the factory worker who produced those network routers and switches. If network was real deal then why did the work come ONLY to INDIA. IT is just an example of service industry such as CAD design service, doctor service, tuition service, legal service....

Regarding KNOWLEDGE u are not able to comprehend my point. What I am trying to tell u that Indian system is naturally greared for a KNOWLEDGE driven service economy. Barring Japan and SOKO there is no country in that Asian region which is known for KNOLWDGE driven INNOVATION. Rest of the gang are contact or reapet manufacturer of goods with 0 innovation and lots of COPY.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Suraj » 07 Jan 2013 12:31

subhamoy.das: Next time you personally attack someone and call them 'arrogant' you will receive a warning. Please edit your post.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 07 Jan 2013 12:57

Suraj Babu: When others can say sarcastic "poetic words" and "pile of dung" why are u not issuing them warning. It this forum a democrarcy or a China style autocracy ?
Last edited by subhamoy.das on 07 Jan 2013 13:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 07 Jan 2013 13:06

wrdos wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:What makes u feel that a GDP where service is 60% of the output will not make the currency strong and the folks weathy? US is a service based GDP, Singapores is same and these countries are wealthy.
For the second point, you are simply not seeing the facts and sticking to your lecture. If manufacturing could be the mass well paid job generator then 300m chinese would not be out of jobs when their country is the worlds larged manufaturer. Clearly the jobs created by manufacturing has saturated and cannot deal with huge work force of the size of China. Service will always sit on top of manufacturing as it requires innovation and highly skilled manpower but the fact that it services people makes it viral and can spread in nook and corner easily and create jobs rather than poluting manufacturing.


:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Sir, usually it would like the following.

1) poor countries, service >> manufacture
They usually have a larger service sector than the manufacture sector simply because they are not yet prepared to make the stuffs. Their service sector is relatively larger but the majority of it is simply the on-street selling. The other telling truth critical characteristic is that they usually have a relatively larger agriculture sector, often larger than the manufacture sector.

2) mid-level countries, service <= manufacture
As countries becoming more and more developed, the manufacturing sector start to catch up, and even overtake the service sector. The current China included. America before the WWII, Japan before the 1970s, South Korea before the 1990s are all like that.

3) high-level countries, service > manufacture
After moving up the value chain, the countries becoming even more developed, and richer than most of the other countries, they tend to import more and more manufactured products from oversea.

Sir, I am very sorry to say but the truth is that India belongs to the 1). Your service sector is larger not because your service is more developed, but simply because of the failure of your manufacture industry. Just like all of the other south Asian countries, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and so on.

All of the major advanced economies, US, West Europe, Japan, South Korea are becoming rich because their at least once success in the manufacture sector. Not a single country has become rich by outsourcing industry and I don't think India or the Philippians can make any differece in this sense.


INDIA is worlds third larget GDP by PPP and that is with 20% manufacturing. So u see, INDIA has already done it and has done it INSPITE of its GOVT - so all the kudos to the people of India. And your constant comparision of India to Philipines and Pakistan is showing how nervous u are of your own achievements.

And regarding manufacturing is rich and service is poor , my friend why the hell are your great Telcom manufacturers willing to go to the extent of opening up source code for inspection for the poor service provides like India. You should have a take it or leave it attituted. Why is 300m of your folks live in abject poverty inspite of the tons of manufacturing jobs u have created by being the worlds top manufacturer. And why are you so rich but dragging your feet in opening up little service delivery window for INDIA in your economy? SERVICE is the future - ignore it at your own peril.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 07 Jan 2013 13:18

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 918661.cms

See how poor INDIA is delivery service to MNC of the world

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby wrdos » 07 Jan 2013 14:25

subhamoy.das wrote:INDIA is worlds third larget GDP by PPP and that is with 20% manufacturing. So u see, INDIA has already done it and has done it INSPITE of its GOVT - so all the kudos to the people of India. And your constant comparision of India to Philipines and Pakistan is showing how nervous u are of your own achievements.

And regarding manufacturing is rich and service is poor , my friend why the hell are your great Telcom manufacturers willing to go to the extent of opening up source code for inspection for the poor service provides like India. You should have a take it or leave it attituted. Why is 300m of your folks live in abject poverty inspite of the tons of manufacturing jobs u have created by being the worlds top manufacturer. And why are you so rich but dragging your feet in opening up little service delivery window for INDIA in your economy? SERVICE is the future - ignore it at your own peril.


Economic level is decided by per capita GDP, not the total GDP, sir. At least the Philippines a richer country than India, isn't it? As for the Telcom example, sir the India service provider is a customer, that's all. You have to be kind to your customers, no matter he a billionaire or a small boy. Sir, you even felt proud of this?

A country need both manufacture and service to become strong. In China we have China mobile and also Huawei, the largest mobile phone provider and the largest tele network equipment manufacturer in the world. In Europe, the US, and Japan, it is all the same, strong provider plus strong manufacturer of telcom, both of them exist.

In Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and India, just as all the other developing countries, only the provider exists.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby PrasadZ » 07 Jan 2013 14:49

wrdos wrote:Economic level is decided by per capita GDP, not the total GDP, sir

Then China is at 94 in the ranking and a failure :rotfl:
It is the total GDP that gives China heft

wrdos wrote:A country need both manufacture and service to become strong. In China we have China mobile and also Huawei, the largest mobile phone provider and the largest tele network equipment manufacturer in the world.

Both companies are in protected markets and face charges of government collusion :roll:

But go on .. I guess chola stands vindicated

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 07 Jan 2013 15:31

wrdos wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:INDIA is worlds third larget GDP by PPP and that is with 20% manufacturing. So u see, INDIA has already done it and has done it INSPITE of its GOVT - so all the kudos to the people of India. And your constant comparision of India to Philipines and Pakistan is showing how nervous u are of your own achievements.

And regarding manufacturing is rich and service is poor , my friend why the hell are your great Telcom manufacturers willing to go to the extent of opening up source code for inspection for the poor service provides like India. You should have a take it or leave it attituted. Why is 300m of your folks live in abject poverty inspite of the tons of manufacturing jobs u have created by being the worlds top manufacturer. And why are you so rich but dragging your feet in opening up little service delivery window for INDIA in your economy? SERVICE is the future - ignore it at your own peril.


Economic level is decided by per capita GDP, not the total GDP, sir. At least the Philippines a richer country than India, isn't it? As for the Telcom example, sir the India service provider is a customer, that's all. You have to be kind to your customers, no matter he a billionaire or a small boy. Sir, you even felt proud of this?

A country need both manufacture and service to become strong. In China we have China mobile and also Huawei, the largest mobile phone provider and the largest tele network equipment manufacturer in the world. In Europe, the US, and Japan, it is all the same, strong provider plus strong manufacturer of telcom, both of them exist.

In Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and India, just as all the other developing countries, only the provider exists.


So your super duper manufacturing is opening up its IP to a small customer? So what will it do when a big customer demands to purchase your IP to get the business? The truth is that this poor customer who makes his living by delivering service to others has a DEEP POCKET to dictate the terms to u and I feel proud about that

Which comapany makes network gears in US? I am not sure if Europe has any one left worth mentioning. Never heard about network grears made in Japan. So at this time these countries just have service providers while the manufacturing happens - guess where - in a poor country called CHINA.

CHINA GDP ( PPP ) is 4+ trillion and worlds TOP manucturer
INDIA GDP ( PPP ) is close to 3 trillion and NOT worlds TOP service provider. So if we become worlds top service provider where will out GDP be? Now u see why u are selling your shirt to a small customer called INDIA?
Last edited by subhamoy.das on 07 Jan 2013 15:44, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 07 Jan 2013 15:36

Marten wrote:wrdos, Nokia Siemens (Motorola) and NEC manufacture critical telecom/tower equipment in India. Cisco as well as top 5 network equipment manufacturers have design offices in India (including Huawei).


This is another example of service delivery ( R&D ) from India. Wrdos and some fellow country men probably think that service delivery is like room service in a hotel or like domestic help. Service delivery is always at the higher end of the value system - the lowest end being made up of manufacturing and agriculture - manual work with no INNOVATION.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Suraj » 07 Jan 2013 21:41

subhamoy.das wrote:Suraj Babu: When others can say sarcastic "poetic words" and "pile of dung" why are u not issuing them warning. It this forum a democrarcy or a China style autocracy ?

There's no need for such snarkiness. There's a report post function. Use it. Calling a post a pile of dung isn't an attack on a person but calling someone arrogant is. You can criticize the contents without making it personal.

PS: This forum isn't a democracy or an autocracy. It's a private website where your posting privileges depend on your civility.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby jamwal » 08 Jan 2013 11:14

subhamoy.das wrote:

The more I analyze, the more I feel that India DOES not believe in following others and tends to keep its IDENTITY or let us say we work ONLY under pressure and hence do not follow a PLANNED approach. We build factories and then the roads, we build the SAT launchers and then the long range missiles, we build local consumer and then focus on exports, we build service industry and then focus on manufacturing, we have democracy and then autocracy.

India's core strength is its national obsession with KNOWLEDGE. INDIA may be the only country where the GODDESS of KNOWLEDGE is worshiped all the way from the elementary schools to the Engineering schools. In schools, we are obsessed with GK and then we have nation wide GK contest in the name of QUIZ. Even AB says that "GYAN HE APKO APKA HAK DILATA HAI" in Who Wants to Be a Millionare. It is this quest for KNOWLEDGE which is driving us towards service driven model and innovation. It is this core element which is missing from CHINA. One of my ex-boss was a CHINESE and he said to me that CHINA will never be able deliver in industry where a touchable OUTPUT is not produced because a CHINESE cannot think of a virtual OUTPUT. INDIA mindset is already engraved in virtual world "MAYA". No wonder we are excelling in service where the output is a smile on the face of the customer - a VIRTUAL thing which cannot be touched but can only be SEEN and felt.

Sorry for becoming more India centric than CHINA.But the difference in the two civilizations and in what they excell is clear like a crystal.


:rotfl:

Sorry, am not an economy expert, but this is too much. :rotfl: Arguing just for the sake of argument will not do anyone any good.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby vina » 08 Jan 2013 12:55

This is hilarious... Chinese posters don't take this too seriously. But check out the way they conduct the "crash tests" on the cars in this show.. and what a God awful name like TrumpChi ..

Stig's Chinese Cousin.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 08 Jan 2013 13:50

Suraj wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:Suraj Babu: When others can say sarcastic "poetic words" and "pile of dung" why are u not issuing them warning. It this forum a democrarcy or a China style autocracy ?

There's no need for such snarkiness. There's a report post function. Use it. Calling a post a pile of dung isn't an attack on a person but calling someone arrogant is. You can criticize the contents without making it personal.

PS: This forum isn't a democracy or an autocracy. It's a private website where your posting privileges depend on your civility.


I agree that calling arrogant is not proper but calling a post a pile of dung is indirectly a personal attack also. I will leave it at that.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby member_20292 » 08 Jan 2013 13:52

^^^ senti mat ho Das babu......:D

ganith me baath karo.. thanda ; kathor ; ganith.

(Cold, hard, maths)

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 08 Jan 2013 14:05

jamwal wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:

The more I analyze, the more I feel that India DOES not believe in following others and tends to keep its IDENTITY or let us say we work ONLY under pressure and hence do not follow a PLANNED approach. We build factories and then the roads, we build the SAT launchers and then the long range missiles, we build local consumer and then focus on exports, we build service industry and then focus on manufacturing, we have democracy and then autocracy.

India's core strength is its national obsession with KNOWLEDGE. INDIA may be the only country where the GODDESS of KNOWLEDGE is worshiped all the way from the elementary schools to the Engineering schools. In schools, we are obsessed with GK and then we have nation wide GK contest in the name of QUIZ. Even AB says that "GYAN HE APKO APKA HAK DILATA HAI" in Who Wants to Be a Millionare. It is this quest for KNOWLEDGE which is driving us towards service driven model and innovation. It is this core element which is missing from CHINA. One of my ex-boss was a CHINESE and he said to me that CHINA will never be able deliver in industry where a touchable OUTPUT is not produced because a CHINESE cannot think of a virtual OUTPUT. INDIA mindset is already engraved in virtual world "MAYA". No wonder we are excelling in service where the output is a smile on the face of the customer - a VIRTUAL thing which cannot be touched but can only be SEEN and felt.

Sorry for becoming more India centric than CHINA.But the difference in the two civilizations and in what they excell is clear like a crystal.


:rotfl:

Sorry, am not an economy expert, but this is too much. :rotfl: Arguing just for the sake of argument will not do anyone any good.


This is an attemp to explain why India's 2+ trillion PPP GDP is 60% service and 20+% manufacturing where as CHINA 4+ trillion PPP GDP is 60% manufacturing and 20+% service. Some thing is different at the core - it is not just polical the polical will, national sentiments etc.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby wrdos » 08 Jan 2013 14:24

subhamoy.das wrote:This is an attemp to explain why India's 2+ trillion PPP GDP is 60% service and 20+% manufacturing where as CHINA 4+ trillion PPP GDP is 60% manufacturing and 20+% service. Some thing is different at the core - it is not just polical the polical will, national sentiments etc.


Sir, where did you get the data of China's 4trillion PPP GDP?

By the end of 2011, China's Norminal GDP was about US$7.3trillion, in market exchanging rate. As for ppp GDP, usually i have no interest on it but if you insist on it, i would say that the current Chinese PPP GDP almost equals to the sum of all EU countries and only a little bit less than the US.

As for the three sectors, in 2011 China, it was like the below.
Agriculture 10.1%, Manufacture 46.8%, Service 43.1%
In 2011, for the first time more Chinese are now living in urban area than the countryside. In 2012, we are still waiting for the data, but it is sure that for the first time, Agriculture had counted for less than 10% of the nation's economy.

I am very sorry to say but your data is always strange; maybe this is the reason of the strange conclusions always found in your posts.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 08 Jan 2013 16:26

Source : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... omposition

I qouted the wrong column but the fact that Chinese economy as of 2010 per PPP is about ONLY 2.5 times of India and has 50/40 ration between manufacture and service vs India's 25/60 which is more comparable to US and JAPAN. Hence the conclusion that INDIA has become the world's 3rd largest ( it became third largest passing JAPAN in 2012 I think ) economy by service delivery. And add this to the fact that China over reports and India under reports its GDP.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby wrdos » 09 Jan 2013 08:45

Sir, in your own quoted figure, both the US and Japan have a agriculture sector around only 1% of the economy while India's near 20%. It is very clear that India's GDP sector composition is closer to Pakistan and the Philippines. Or more exactly, between them just as the per capita GDP of India is slightly greater than Pakistan but less than the Philippines.

A very large agri sector, and a bigger than industry service sector is common among the poor developing countries, apply for almost every of them.

As for your statement, "Chinese PPP is ONLY 2.5 times of India". Sir, 2.5 times of PPP per capita GDP is a very big difference. In fact, 2.5 times of PPP Chinese per capita GDP is just near the average of the European countries, with quite a few EU members less than it.

Sir, your conclusions can only make the audience laughing, just as usual.

subhamoy.das wrote:Source : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... omposition
I qouted the wrong column but the fact that Chinese economy as of 2010 per PPP is about ONLY 2.5 times of India and has 50/40 ration between manufacture and service vs India's 25/60 which is more comparable to US and JAPAN. Hence the conclusion that INDIA has become the world's 3rd largest ( it became third largest passing JAPAN in 2012 I think ) economy by service delivery. And add this to the fact that China over reports and India under reports its GDP.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby wig » 09 Jan 2013 14:05

meanwhile this is a more accurate description of how the system in china works for chinese and how minders make sure good news is disseminated whereas bad news is suppressed

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 073-2.html

the entire article is a good illuminating read, these are merely excerpts. german thoroughness may be observed by the discerning reader when one notes that the journalist photographs the survelliance cameras of the hotel and wants to lodge a complaint( presumably he imagines the hotel staff will disclose the identity of the persons) over his equipment being destroyed (water boarded !) and is told to leave. so much for truth and freedom

The three-hour drive gave us an impression of the challenges involved in governing Guizhou Province. The muddy roads were filled with bathtub-sized potholes, and hundreds of children stood shivering in the cold fog. China's one-child policy doesn't apply to its ethnic minorities, many of which live in Guizhou. At the same time, the region is so poor that about 2 million of Bijie's population of 7 million people are forced to work in the wealthy coastal cities, like the father of four of the dead boys.

When we arrived at the village, neighbors prevented us from meeting with the boys' family. It was unclear to us whether this was because the family didn't want to see us, or whether the presence of Zhao and our other escorts intimidated them.

When we returned to the city, one of the police officers from the hotel joined us for dinner. After apologizing for the rude reception on the previous evening, he tried to ascertain what our next plans were. He also suggested that we refrain from reporting too critically on conditions in Bijie, noting that criticism is bad for the investment climate in the region. We remained under observation, and government agents sitting in the lobby filmed us whenever we left the hotel.

The next morning, people whom we had planned to meet suddenly failed to appear. Others received calls warning them about us as we were speaking with them. When Zhao interrupted a conversation we were having with a local resident, I asked him to leave us alone. He responded: "Okay. But then you will not be my business anymore." We weren't sure whether to interpret this as a promise or a threat.

That afternoon, we hailed a cab for the trip back to the provincial capital Guiyang. Minutes later, our driver received a phone call that he didn't really want to discuss. The drive took six hours, and by the time we arrived we had missed our return flight to Beijing. We decided to spend the night in Guiyang. It was only while taking another taxi back into the city that we chose to stay at the local Kempinski Hotel. After we had checked in, I loaded the remaining pictures I had taken in Bijie from my camera's memory card onto my laptop. We went to the hotel restaurant for dinner at about 9 p.m..

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 09 Jan 2013 14:29

wrdos wrote:Sir, in your own quoted figure, both the US and Japan have a agriculture sector around only 1% of the economy while India's near 20%. It is very clear that India's GDP sector composition is closer to Pakistan and the Philippines. Or more exactly, between them just as the per capita GDP of India is slightly greater than Pakistan but less than the Philippines.

A very large agri sector, and a bigger than industry service sector is common among the poor developing countries, apply for almost every of them.

As for your statement, "Chinese PPP is ONLY 2.5 times of India". Sir, 2.5 times of PPP per capita GDP is a very big difference. In fact, 2.5 times of PPP Chinese per capita GDP is just near the average of the European countries, with quite a few EU members less than it.

Sir, your conclusions can only make the audience laughing, just as usual.

subhamoy.das wrote:Source : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... omposition
I qouted the wrong column but the fact that Chinese economy as of 2010 per PPP is about ONLY 2.5 times of India and has 50/40 ration between manufacture and service vs India's 25/60 which is more comparable to US and JAPAN. Hence the conclusion that INDIA has become the world's 3rd largest ( it became third largest passing JAPAN in 2012 I think ) economy by service delivery. And add this to the fact that China over reports and India under reports its GDP.


I have been following your posts for years now and know that u change the goal post when a defeat is certain.

So when the facts prove that INDIA is worlds third larget economy - AHEAD of JAPAN - and has very large service sector - u tend to bring in agriculture in agriculture to prove that INDIA is at same level as PHILIPINES and that service is for poor folks! Sure India has 20% ( China has 10% ) but these folks will migrate to SERVICE and not to MANUFACTURING - that is the point. So INDIA has clearly taken the SERVICE route to growth.

You then bring in per capita GPD to stay afloat in the game but alas here also CHINA is at 100 postion and India around 120. Your thought of CHINA being EUROPE is a ?et deam at its best. See here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... y_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita. 300m of your CITIZENS live in abject poverty and worse u deny it.

The difference of 2.5 times was high lighted as in reference to CHINE consumption pattern of multiples of 10s against INDIA. So the GDP difference does not match the cosumption difference and the reason being more skewed distribution of wealth.

It is natural to laugh when u donot get it or donot want to get it. So please keep laughing

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 09 Jan 2013 16:19

India pips Brazil, Russia to become fourth largest market for Sony after US, CHINA and JAPAN...
I did not see PHILIPINES in the list!

http://www.samachar.com/India-pips-Braz ... ended_news

And this news again brings us to the question : How come CHINA - with a 1/8th of per capita of JAPAN be consuming more than Japan? India with 1/10th is consuming proportinally less. The same answer - unequal purchasing power driven by autocratic rule.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Suraj » 09 Jan 2013 22:52

A note to all: please keep the discussion to PRC economic matters. This isn't a thread for a continuous debate on India vs China, services vs manufacturing, capitalism vs communism etc. Further thread derailment will lead to posts being deleted without notice.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby svinayak » 09 Jan 2013 23:42

subhamoy.das wrote:

And this news again brings us to the question : How come CHINA - with a 1/8th of per capita of JAPAN be consuming more than Japan? India with 1/10th is consuming proportinally less. The same answer - unequal purchasing power driven by autocratic rule.


This Chinese consumption is under the control of the PRC govt.
In the mid 90s and early 2000s the sudden jump in PC and Car sales was noted and this was revealed to be due to state transaction who keep these items in storage,
These anomolies will show up after few years

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby chola » 10 Jan 2013 10:37

subhamoy.das wrote:India pips Brazil, Russia to become fourth largest market for Sony after US, CHINA and JAPAN...
I did not see PHILIPINES in the list!

http://www.samachar.com/India-pips-Braz ... ended_news

And this news again brings us to the question : How come CHINA - with a 1/8th of per capita of JAPAN be consuming more than Japan? India with 1/10th is consuming proportinally less. The same answer - unequal purchasing power driven by autocratic rule.


As much as I dislike getting in between one of ours and the chini 50-center, the complete misunderstanding of economics expressed here does no one any good in this thread.

High consumption of consumer goods means exactly as what common sense says it means -- high numbers of consumers. When GM or Apple sells as many of their products in China as the US, it means that the chini market, its number of users and its GDP are close to if not the same size of the US one.

The MNCs attack the chini on the assumptions that it is as larger or larger than the US. The US government does the same when it goes after the chinis to raise the Yuan because they know that China undervalues its GDP.

That is the chini game. They underreport their economy and undervalue their currency to game the international trade organizations like the WTO.

Ask Sony if they think their sales figures are right about the size of the Chinese economy or the official GDP figure is. They will tell that the offical chini GDP is a sham and that the actual PRC economy is two or three times what they are telling the world.

The chicoms' strategy is to undersell and undervalue to cheat at the WTO and in bilateral trade negotiations. Having a larger economy means you give concessions to the smaller ones in trade talks. The Americans, the Japanese and the Europeans know this.

But our jingos refuse to see this because they don't understand the PRC's game and would rather beleive the chinis oversell than under sell. If we cannot discuss simply things like the actual size of their economy without going into convoluted explanations that makes no economic sense then we will never be able to take advantage or counter them economically.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby member_20292 » 10 Jan 2013 11:46

^^^^

Chola ji. You have repeated yourself ..

Yes, we are convinced by you (at least I am ) .

A new question for you and others.

How large is the consumer market for customized designer arts and artifacts to be sold and shipped to China?

Something like the brass artifacts shown here :
http://bowmandesignindia.com/

If , as you say, Indians should focus on servicing the Chinese market...how does one do that as a small business, like the one in the link above?

I would say, that a to do list would be ;
a. list your products on ebay/ alibaba.com / global sources.com
b. find the details of shipping. Container shipping, etc.
c. Find details of how to do customs
d. get order. accept money by paypal / money transfer etc.
e. get online and promote your business using facebook, own website, word of mouth (translated to Chinese :D)

A small business can only make a go of what your say as being true, if they are able to find a route into the Chinese mainland and become a successful supplier. A lot depends upon the size of the market, as you so rightly have pointed out!

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 11 Jan 2013 02:06

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2 ... u-s-again/

China’s vehicle market will continue to grow and could be as big as Europe and the U.S. combined, Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, head of vehicle research at the University of Duisburg-Essen, told the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 11 Jan 2013 12:03

http://www.samachar.com/China-December- ... ended_news

Chinese food inflation hits 7 month high

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 11 Jan 2013 13:33

I am sorry there is no conclusive evidence to believe that China under reports.On the contrary, tons of public domain information from independent sources confirms that there is massive over reporting from group level up to top level to reap political benefits under the CPC system where growth is the yard stick for performance. If they were under reporting then why their is media restriction. I read in many posts of folks who has travelled to China and say that Chinese cities are like NW or LA only at the centre and you go a few blocks down the scene completely changes. So I am not buying the fact that they under report.


Let is try to figure out the number of consumers in China using world bank or IMF figures. Let us use USD 8,000 per year as a per capita GDP PPP and use that to determine the purchasing power of the Chinese consumers. It bolies down to about USD 700 per month per peson. If we assume that average Chinese house hold of 3 people then house hold monthy incomes becomes USD 2100. With this much weatlh how many house holds can consumer cars ? Where as Japan - using the same calculaiton as above - with a household wealth of about USD 10,000 pm certainly can afford two cars - one like CAMRY and one like CIVIC. I US with a pay of USD 10,000 per month, I could afford the same hence the assumption.

Now number of house holds in CHINA would be around 500mil ( assuming a total pop of 1.5b and an a house hold size of 3 ). Number of households in US and Europe will be around 150mil ( assuming a total polulation of 450mil ). So for the car sales to be same for CHINA and US+EU 30% of the Chinese households must be a car consumer. For 30% to be a consumer they must get the additional wealth from the rest 70%. So the rest 70% will let go a large portion of their already low USD 2100 pay to make sure the rest 30% can afforrd cars. So it is this 70% of CHINA which is really poor and is to be hiddent from the camera. In case of US or EU every household is a consumer without having to borrow or deprive a another one and hence there is no media coverage and what u see is what is there.

Still JINGOISM and convulated logic?

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ashi » 11 Jan 2013 14:14

subhamoy.das wrote:I am sorry there is no conclusive evidence to believe that China under reports.On the contrary, tons of public domain information from independent sources confirms that there is massive over reporting from group level up to top level to reap political benefits under the CPC system where growth is the yard stick for performance. If they were under reporting then why their is media restriction. I read in many posts of folks who has travelled to China and say that Chinese cities are like NW or LA only at the centre and you go a few blocks down the scene completely changes. So I am not buying the fact that they under report.



What China really looks like should not be too hard to find out. Every year there are millions of tourist to China. Here is a series of China on Four Wheels from BBC. They also made a series on India as well.


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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 11 Jan 2013 14:34

ashi wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:I am sorry there is no conclusive evidence to believe that China under reports.On the contrary, tons of public domain information from independent sources confirms that there is massive over reporting from group level up to top level to reap political benefits under the CPC system where growth is the yard stick for performance. If they were under reporting then why their is media restriction. I read in many posts of folks who has travelled to China and say that Chinese cities are like NW or LA only at the centre and you go a few blocks down the scene completely changes. So I am not buying the fact that they under report.



What China really looks like should not be too hard to find out. Every year there are millions of tourist to China. Here is a series of China on Four Wheels from BBC. They also made a series on India as well.



There is no merit in this documentaary as it will be totally controlled by CPC from where it the can go and what they can film. Google earth would be a better choice.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby vina » 11 Jan 2013 14:39

ashi wrote:What China really looks like should not be too hard to find out. Every year there are millions of tourist to China. Here is a series of China on Four Wheels from BBC. They also made a series on India as well.


Indeed. What China DOES should not be too hard to find out either. Every year there are hundreds of billions of dollars of Exports from China. Here is a story on one such export from China. They mention India in it as well.

BBC story on a Chinese Export

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ashi » 11 Jan 2013 14:40

subhamoy.das wrote:There is no merit in this documentaary as it will be totally controlled by CPC from where it the can go and what they can film. Google earth would be a better choice.


BBC doesn't say that. Maybe they filmed it under gun point. :-)

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ashi » 11 Jan 2013 14:51

vina wrote:Indeed. What China DOES should not be too hard to find out either. Every year there are hundreds of billions of dollars of Exports from China. Here is a story on one such export from China. They mention India in it as well.

BBC story on a Chinese Export


What are you trying to say and what are you trying to prove? There are crooks in China? Yes you bet. So is every country.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby krishnan » 11 Jan 2013 15:49

ashi wrote:
vina wrote:Indeed. What China DOES should not be too hard to find out either. Every year there are hundreds of billions of dollars of Exports from China. Here is a story on one such export from China. They mention India in it as well.

BBC story on a Chinese Export


What are you trying to say and what are you trying to prove? There are crooks in China? Yes you bet. So is every country.


Yes there are crooks in every country...but the problem is when the whole country is a crook...

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby member_20292 » 11 Jan 2013 16:03

These guys get 50 cents for every post. So lets not help them by allowing them to post more and more ripostes to what we reply to them. best is let them post their 2 bit glowing reports about China and leave.

Apart from heech, and to some extent wrdos, I dont believe anyone has had the education to post coherent replies in CHina's defence.


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