PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

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vina
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by vina »

ashi wrote:What are you trying to say and what are you trying to prove?
That rank criminality, skullduggery ,cheating, theft (IP and otherwise) and absolutely shady business practices and ethics are a massive part of the China story (this is just the business side, leaving out the human side out).
There are crooks in China? Yes you bet.
But the crooks seem to be the norm in China. Name ONE Chinese company listed overseas that has a clean and believable financial statements , management and corporate governance and I will show you 10 Indian companies (since you always want a D*ck measuring contest....)
So is every country.
Ah.. This is a motherhood and apple pie statement. This is straight out of the Pakistani playbook of "Terrorism is a global phenomenon" . So you seem to be taking after your Pakistani Proxytute in claiming that "Criminality is a global problem"
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by chola »

subhamoy.das wrote:I am sorry there is no conclusive evidence to believe that China under reports

There is every evidence that China under reports on its GDP.

When sales figures from the MNCs are the same for China as they are for the US then the Chinese market is every bit as big as the American one. Yet it's nominal GDP figure is half the US. Those figures hit anyone with the least knowledge of economics like a cricket bat to the head. You cannot generate American size sales figures for everything without an American sized economy. It is that simple.

Why do you think the US and Europe is hammering away at the chinis to raise the Yuan? The US thinks the PRC has undervalued its currency by 40% that's why. This is after it had already risen 33% over the last four years against the US dollar when every other currency in the world had fallen against the dollar.

Do you even understand why a currency is considered undervalued? An currency is considered under-valued only when people suspects that its GDP is under reported. And the chini currency is majorly undervalued. That should make the even densest economic layman understand the chini GDP is under reported.
Still JINGOISM and convulated logic?
Firstly, economics is not hard. Sales figures equals economic activity. The aggregate of economic activity is GDP. Only GDPs of American-sized economies can generate American-size sales for a comprehensive range of products.

That is why the USSR, Zimbabwe and North Korea could not generate 2.6m sales of GM cars no matter how much they are "skewed by autocratic rule" which is one of the pseudo economic theories you like to spew. Autocrats cannot produce a gain in consumer good sales unless they produce a large enough GDP.

Secondly, there is no economic advantage to over reporting in the real world. Just like no one over-reports on income so they can be taxed more. People like to be taxed less. Mercantilist countries are the same. China (and Japan, Taiwan, Korea) cheat by undervaluing their currency and under-reporting their GDP. You can not cheat by over-reporting. You give concessions in trade regimes if you are the stronger economy.

Jingos imagine that the chinis must be over-reporting because the reality does not fit with their jingo. This puts us at a complete disadvantage because the chini's game is to undervalue and under-report for trade advantages.

There is a reason why the US pressures China to re-value it currency upwards. If the Americans get their way, the official chini GDP would double overnight. American MNCs already treats China as a much larger economy no matter what the official GDP figures are.

The rest of the world look at economics with cold hard eyes and understand how the chinis cheat. Jingos don't and assume the complete opposite.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by RamaY »

^ With all due respect, i think you are reaching a point of China-overdose Chola sir.

Just because China consumes same number of cars as USA it wouldn't make China's GDP == USA's GDP. That doesn't mean I know what China's actual GDP is. Top 10 car manufacturers' revenue in 2010 = ~$1tn - http://www.crazeforcars.com/top-10s/top ... facturers/. What is China's contribution to this, 50%?

What next, if China consumes 6 times more salt than USA then China's GDP is 6 times larger than USA's?

The 2012 total revenue of Fortune 500 is ~$11TN. how much of this is China's contribution? 10% or 20%? Then how are you arriving at China's GDP being ~$16TN?

The world GDP is ~$70tn that is about 7 times revenue of F500. By this calculation China's GDP cannot be more than $7-8TN at best even assuming China contributes to ~15-20% of F500 revenues; given the income disparities in a "developing" country like China.

Source: http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/ ... full_list/
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by svinayak »

Also we need to compare the gasoline consumption with similar vehicle population country consumption.

We need the anomaly on the gas/petrol consumption , coal/electricity consumption and other sales of industrial and consumer goods.
Where is the consumption of raw materials for the GDP of ~$16TN?
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by ashi »

vina wrote: But the crooks seem to be the norm in China. Name ONE Chinese company listed overseas that has a clean and believable financial statements , management and corporate governance and I will show you 10 Indian companies (since you always want a D*ck measuring contest....)
So is every country.
Ah.. This is a motherhood and apple pie statement. This is straight out of the Pakistani playbook of "Terrorism is a global phenomenon" . So you seem to be taking after your Pakistani Proxytute in claiming that "Criminality is a global problem"
You are accusing me want a "D*ck measuring contest" yet you challenge me for another China company vs India Company contest?

You have made many predictions about China in the last few years. ALL of them failed. Maybe you should really take the time to listen to the "50centers" you like to name.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by ashi »

mahadevbhu wrote:These guys get 50 cents for every post. So lets not help them by allowing them to post more and more ripostes to what we reply to them. best is let them post their 2 bit glowing reports about China and leave.

Apart from heech, and to some extent wrdos, I dont believe anyone has had the education to post coherent replies in CHina's defence.
I don't see you made any valid argument either besides calling people 50centers.
Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Acharya wrote:Where is the consumption of raw materials for the GDP of ~$16TN?
Not to mention the Chinese people most definitely DO NOT look like they have per capita income of $15,000 and are living it up, out side 200 million party folk in the cities.

They look like a people with a per capita income of $2,000 -$3,000 or so. Report after report that has asked people what their actual income is has shown this to be true.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Christopher Sidor »

chola wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:India pips Brazil, Russia to become fourth largest market for Sony after US, CHINA and JAPAN...
I did not see PHILIPINES in the list!

http://www.samachar.com/India-pips-Braz ... ended_news

And this news again brings us to the question : How come CHINA - with a 1/8th of per capita of JAPAN be consuming more than Japan? India with 1/10th is consuming proportinally less. The same answer - unequal purchasing power driven by autocratic rule.
High consumption of consumer goods means exactly as what common sense says it means -- high numbers of consumers. When GM or Apple sells as many of their products in China as the US, it means that the chini market, its number of users and its GDP are close to if not the same size of the US one.
Beg to differ with you Boss. Higher Consumption does not mean higher number of consumers. Take the case of America, it is still the largest market in terms of telecom cellular revenue, in-spite of having less than 1/5th of the cellular subscribers as compared to China. For sake of argument I have taken the number of subscribers in China as 1 Billion and in US as 200 million. So how do we compare such markets. The most logical is to see ARPU, i.e. Average Revenue Per User.

The difference is that on an average a Chinese will buy one item, say One iPAD, one LCD TV, etc. But an average american will buy multiple iPAD and multiple LCD TV. There are Chinese families which have multiple goods, but the number of such families is minuscule as compared to the Americans.

Ditto for Japan and china. If you go to Japan the affluence of an average Japanese is much much more than that of an average Chinese. This is despite the fact that Japan's economy is smaller than that of the Chinese economy.

So maybe size does matter. Maybe quantity does matter. But it is no way substitute for quality. And in that China is truly a 3rd world nation, despite having the so called biggest car market or biggest cellular telecom market, etc.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Suraj »

ashi: There's going to be a lot of critical news on China posted here. You know why ? Because that's what we do here - look at stuff critically, not just serve as a platform to display pretty pictures of Shanghai. Have you looked at all the other threads here ? We complain about everything about India quite liberally, and China doesn't get any special treatment here.

So please stop complaining when someone posts a critical article and move along. If you troll, or worse, start a flame war by bringing up something negative about India in response, you'll earn a warning.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by heech »

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireSt ... t-18187148

Apple expects China to overtake the United States as its biggest market, CEO Tim Cook told a Chinese government news agency.
As far as the "hidden" China which is supposedly poor and will never be able to afford a car... the standard of living + salaries continue to increase at very obvious levels in China, and people should really just buy themselves a plane ticket.

I just returned from a month in China. Signs of tremendous progress are still everywhere.

- The legal minimum salary in Shenzhen is now 1600 RMB.
- Walk down any street, and you'll see "help wanted" signs in front of every business. The least skilled jobs (assistant in a local clothing store) are being posted for around 1800 RMB (roughly $300 USD), with room/board included. This is roughly a 2x increase from where it was 4-5 years ago.
- Migrant workers doing construction are now carrying bottled mineral water + sodas to work (and carrying smartphones)! Now that's a sign of encroaching luxury (and future obesity?).
- My 95-yr old grandmother (a retired teacher) has had her pension increased by another 10%. She is now being paid roughly 5500 RMB a month (~$1000 USD).
- In the housing development where I live, the little greenery we had has been cut down even further... converted into more parking spaces. (I am really, really hopeful that car purchase numbers start declining in China... the quality of life is DECLINING as the number of cars increase... but that trend seems unlikely to reverse.)
- My relatives, very average upper/middle-class urban workers (university-educated, but nothing else special about them)... have expanded their vacation circles. 3-5 years ago, they were vacationing in the Philippines or Russia. Now, they're vacationing in South Korea and Italy.
- Multiplex movie theaters are absolutely packed. Tickets still cost roughly the same ($7 - $14 USD in Shenzhen)... 4-5 years ago, except for very special showings (like Avatar), most screenings were almost entirely empty. Now, even during the day, lines for movies are just insanely long. Domestic films are now making over 1 billion RMB ($150 million USD+) in the movie theaters...

All of the above are my direct observations about the quality of life... not "statistics" that I can only find in state-sponsored media. Visit yourself, take your own samples of the state of the Chinese economy.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by heech »

Oh, and another very interesting trend to watch... many of the migrant workers in Shenzhen that I chat with are moving their families back to the countryside. Not out of dissatisfaction with Shenzhen, but purely because the economy opportunities back at home are also surging. The worker famine in production areas in southern China will probably continue to increase.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Yeah! Shenzhen is China nonsense. :roll:

BTW 1500 Yuan is roughly Rs 9,000. Less than Mimimum wage in Mumbai. I doubt too many would be willing to work at that wage in Mumbai.

I thought Panda wonder land was 4x to 5x bigger. WTF. How can you be so poor. I think you revealed something about Panda wonderland. No 50 cent for you this month.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by heech »

Theo_Fidel wrote:Yeah! Shenzhen is China nonsense. :roll:

BTW 1500 Yuan is roughly Rs 9,000. Less than Mimimum wage in Mumbai. I doubt too many would be willing to work at that wage in Mumbai.

I thought Panda wonder land was 4x to 5x bigger. WTF. How can you be so poor. I think you revealed something about Panda wonderland. No 50 cent for you this month.
Google tells me 1600 RMB is Rs 14,000. My point is quite simply that 1600 RMB for a young, unskilled worker (with free room/board) is significant improvement from where things were just a few years ago.

I've never been to Mumbai, but if all Indians in Mumbai are doing better than that, then congratulations, and more power to them.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by ashi »

Suraj wrote:ashi: There's going to be a lot of critical news on China posted here. You know why ? Because that's what we do here - look at stuff critically, not just serve as a platform to display pretty pictures of Shanghai. Have you looked at all the other threads here ? We complain about everything about India quite liberally, and China doesn't get any special treatment here.

So please stop complaining when someone posts a critical article and move along. If you troll, or worse, start a flame war by bringing up something negative about India in response, you'll earn a warning.
There should be critical article about China posted here. I totally agree. We need both side of stories. My reply to Vina was to question what point he was trying to make to reply to my post about BBC's China touring documentary with an article about CHina fake drugs. How are they related? And I didn't drag India into discussion, I knew better.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Abhijeet »

Heech, that's an impressive pension ($1000 = Rs. 50K per month). Is the pension level higher for the Shenzen area, or a uniform number nationwide? Is it given by the federal or local government?

Do you have an estimate of how many people in China might be earning a pension at a similar level?

===========

Is the minimum wage adhered to? Rs. 14K/month would be a respectable starting salary for a college graduate in India and well above the minimum wage.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Christopher Sidor »

heech wrote:
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireSt ... t-18187148

Apple expects China to overtake the United States as its biggest market, CEO Tim Cook told a Chinese government news agency.
As far as the "hidden" China which is supposedly poor and will never be able to afford a car... the standard of living + salaries continue to increase at very obvious levels in China, and people should really just buy themselves a plane ticket.

I just returned from a month in China. Signs of tremendous progress are still everywhere.

- The legal minimum salary in Shenzhen is now 1600 RMB.
- Walk down any street, and you'll see "help wanted" signs in front of every business. The least skilled jobs (assistant in a local clothing store) are being posted for around 1800 RMB (roughly $300 USD), with room/board included. This is roughly a 2x increase from where it was 4-5 years ago.
- Migrant workers doing construction are now carrying bottled mineral water + sodas to work (and carrying smartphones)! Now that's a sign of encroaching luxury (and future obesity?).
- My 95-yr old grandmother (a retired teacher) has had her pension increased by another 10%. She is now being paid roughly 5500 RMB a month (~$1000 USD).
- In the housing development where I live, the little greenery we had has been cut down even further... converted into more parking spaces. (I am really, really hopeful that car purchase numbers start declining in China... the quality of life is DECLINING as the number of cars increase... but that trend seems unlikely to reverse.)
- My relatives, very average upper/middle-class urban workers (university-educated, but nothing else special about them)... have expanded their vacation circles. 3-5 years ago, they were vacationing in the Philippines or Russia. Now, they're vacationing in South Korea and Italy.
- Multiplex movie theaters are absolutely packed. Tickets still cost roughly the same ($7 - $14 USD in Shenzhen)... 4-5 years ago, except for very special showings (like Avatar), most screenings were almost entirely empty. Now, even during the day, lines for movies are just insanely long. Domestic films are now making over 1 billion RMB ($150 million USD+) in the movie theaters...

All of the above are my direct observations about the quality of life... not "statistics" that I can only find in state-sponsored media. Visit yourself, take your own samples of the state of the Chinese economy.
That is good news. I wish Chinese all the best. You have made tremendous strides.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Abhijeet »

IMO, the richer China grows under the current mode of government, the more pain-free their (probably inevitable) transition to a democratic form of government will become. Well-off people don't participate in bloody regime changes.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by jamwal »

Theo_Fidel wrote:Yeah! Shenzhen is China nonsense. :roll:

BTW 1500 Yuan is roughly Rs 9,000. Less than Mimimum wage in Mumbai. I doubt too many would be willing to work at that wage in Mumbai.

I thought Panda wonder land was 4x to 5x bigger. WTF. How can you be so poor. I think you revealed something about Panda wonderland. No 50 cent for you this month.
Putting foot in mouth again, aren't we ? Sometimes I wonder how many Indian posters on this thread know basics of even Indian economy and ground conditions. You guys make me :roll: me more than the Chinese posters.

Let's just assume that 1500 Yuan is for regulated govt jobs onlee and unorganised sector is still paying less than this figure. Then compare it to latest recruitment of junior engineers in J&K state. It's on contract basis for five years probation where they will pay Rs 7000 per month for first 2 years, and 12000 for next 3 years. Full pay ( around Rs 35000 pm starting, maybe more by that time) will be given only after they complete 5 years. It's another matter that J&K is a bankrupt state due to terrorism and corruption, but still govt is offering jobs below minimum wage and people are lining up for it.
I'm no fan of Chinese regime, but try giving credit where it's due. You hardly have anything to say except a silly emoticon and half-truth of a rude reply which should get you a warning at the very least.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by subhamoy.das »

ashi wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote: There is no merit in this documentaary as it will be totally controlled by CPC from where it the can go and what they can film. Google earth would be a better choice.
BBC doesn't say that. Maybe they filmed it under gun point. :-)
I am sure u must have seen the recent story of how it kept secret Britain's worst child sex scandal under the wrap and protected one of its own celebrity staff for 20 years who is now accused of having raped 100s of minors and some on their death bed. So BBC is last to trust. There is no doubt the life of certain % of Chinese folks have improved a lot but a much large % lies on the other side and you Chinese poster are not willing to accept that. That is the difference between your system and Indian system. In India we have the same divide and there are two countries here INDIA ( modern and affluent and west like ) and BHARAT ( poor and holding on to old values etc ). China also has two countries inside China. Do u have local names for them? I am sure CCP will not allow us to see the other CHINA. Otherwise why there is so much media and internet control . For what reason ? Sure there is something to hide.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by subhamoy.das »

chola wrote:
There is every evidence that China under reports on its GDP.

When sales figures from the MNCs are the same for China as they are for the US then the Chinese market is every bit as big as the American one. Yet it's nominal GDP figure is half the US. Those figures hit anyone with the least knowledge of economics like a cricket bat to the head. You cannot generate American size sales figures for everything without an American sized economy. It is that simple.

Why do you think the US and Europe is hammering away at the chinis to raise the Yuan? The US thinks the PRC has undervalued its currency by 40% that's why. This is after it had already risen 33% over the last four years against the US dollar when every other currency in the world had fallen against the dollar.

Do you even understand why a currency is considered undervalued? An currency is considered under-valued only when people suspects that its GDP is under reported. And the chini currency is majorly undervalued. That should make the even densest economic layman understand the chini GDP is under reported.
A 6th grader would under stand the concept of under valued currency as all they have to know is how to arrive at GDP by summing the total value of goods and service produced in local currency / units of foreign currency per local local currency and the effect of a lower dividend on the quotient.

Countries does not go after under countries because their GDP is under valued. They go after when the under valued currency makes labor cheap VS its own country and JOBS start moving away. Currency under value hits trade between countries but would not affect consumption level unless it is highly import dependent. A car in CHINA will not automatically become proportionally cheaper if tomorrow the CHINESE currency is upvalued by 40% and hence will not translate into a 40% increase in number of consumers. I have given the elaborate GDP PPP based break down of a chinese household purchase power and this PPP based values are not skewed by mercantile under value or over value and is a true measure of the GDP by the instrinsic value of the currency.


The simple reason - not need to be hit by a bat - for CHINESE consumption absolute number is close to US absolute numbers because CHINA has 5 times the people and if 20% of them consume like US then they will be a US sized market. And u again and again challenge my basic understanding levels...

chola wrote: Firstly, economics is not hard. Sales figures equals economic activity. The aggregate of economic activity is GDP. Only GDPs of American-sized economies can generate American-size sales for a comprehensive range of products.

That is why the USSR, Zimbabwe and North Korea could not generate 2.6m sales of GM cars no matter how much they are "skewed by autocratic rule" which is one of the pseudo economic theories you like to spew. Autocrats cannot produce a gain in consumer good sales unless they produce a large enough GDP.
They would have for sure if they had CHINA's population. Then all they had to do is ensure that a small population consumes at the expense of larger. I am not saying autocracy increases no. of consumers. I am saying that it makes a small percentage of population consumers and if u have a large population u will be a large consumer base in absolute term.
chola wrote: Secondly, there is no economic advantage to over reporting in the real world. Just like no one over-reports on income so they can be taxed more. People like to be taxed less. Mercantilist countries are the same. China (and Japan, Taiwan, Korea) cheat by undervaluing their currency and under-reporting their GDP. You can not cheat by over-reporting. You give concessions in trade regimes if you are the stronger economy.

Jingos imagine that the chinis must be over-reporting because the reality does not fit with their jingo. This puts us at a complete disadvantage because the chini's game is to undervalue and under-report for trade advantages.

There is a reason why the US pressures China to re-value it currency upwards. If the Americans get their way, the official chini GDP would double overnight. American MNCs already treats China as a much larger economy no matter what the official GDP figures are.

The rest of the world look at economics with cold hard eyes and understand how the chinis cheat. Jingos don't and assume the complete opposite.
All export driven economies will want to keep their currency cheap to export more - no brainer here. But it has nothing to do with the consumption level of the country as the consumption is made in local currency only unless citizens are buying imported items for their daily needs! If increasing the mercantile GDP would have translated into an increase in the purchasing or consumption power of the citizens then WHY IS CHINE resisting.....They reason they are resisting is because such a move will have little effect on the CHINESE purchasing power but a lot of jobs will move back to US as goods sourced from CHINA will become costly - not in CHINA - but US.
Last edited by subhamoy.das on 12 Jan 2013 21:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by heech »

Abhijeet wrote:Heech, that's an impressive pension ($1000 = Rs. 50K per month). Is the pension level higher for the Shenzen area, or a uniform number nationwide? Is it given by the federal or local government?

Do you have an estimate of how many people in China might be earning a pension at a similar level?
My grandmother's pension is paid out of Jiangsu province in eastern China. My understanding is that your pension is determined by a lot of different factors: your actual work unit, local regional funding, and federal funding. Federal (central government) funding is what just increased by a factor of 10% this year. In many cases, you have to "pay in" / work in a certain region for a number of years before you qualify for pensions. I have an uncle who worked for 9 years in Shenzhen before he retired, and now the pension formula requires 10 years of employment before qualifying... so my understanding is that he gets nothing from Shenzhen.

As far as how many people in China might be earning a pension of that level... I can only guess wildly. I would guess maybe 1/4 of retired people who've worked + lived in urban areas?
Is the minimum wage adhered to? Rs. 14K/month would be a respectable starting salary for a college graduate in India and well above the minimum wage.
In Shenzhen at least, yes. And in practice, most people are being paid well above the minimum wage. I would guess the minimum wage probably applies only to the most unskilled/undesirable jobs (garbage collector, street sweeper, etc).
Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Jamwal, what nonsense is that.

First, you realize BRF is banned in China. You are all talking to a certified patriot of the CPC not the chinese public here. The fact that you can't figure this out......

Second the moorakh is talking about Shenzhen not the wilds of Jammu. The idiocy of your comment is quite breath taking in it lack of understanding of geography and economics and class.

Try to do some reading on the Internets before mouthing off...
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by chola »

Christopher Sidor wrote:
Beg to differ with you Boss. Higher Consumption does not mean higher number of consumers. Take the case of America, it is still the largest market in terms of telecom cellular revenue, in-spite of having less than 1/5th of the cellular subscribers as compared to China. For sake of argument I have taken the number of subscribers in China as 1 Billion and in US as 200 million. So how do we compare such markets. The most logical is to see ARPU, i.e. Average Revenue Per User.
It most definitely does. GM cannot sell 2.6m cars unless the numbers are there. I suppose you need to tell the MNCs that they are actually not selling to real customers. Economics is not that hard, sir.


Ditto for Japan and china. If you go to Japan the affluence of an average Japanese is much much more than that of an average Chinese. This is despite the fact that Japan's economy is smaller than that of the Chinese economy.

So maybe size does matter. Maybe quantity does matter. But it is no way substitute for quality. And in that China is truly a 3rd world nation, despite having the so called biggest car market or biggest cellular telecom market, etc.
Why are we worried about the "quality" when we cannot even understand the basics such as the simple size of the chini economy.

And who cares if they are third world (which they most certainly are)? What we should be concerned with is what the MNCs and Western governments are concerned with, the size of the chini markets and how it can be countered or attacked.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by chola »

subhamoy.das wrote:
A 6th grader would under stand the concept of under valued currency as all they have to know is how to arrive at GDP by summing the total value of goods and service produced in local currency / units of foreign currency per local local currency and the effect of a lower dividend on the quotient.
Again, economics is not that hard. GDP equals economic activity. Sales are the calculable results of economic activity. If sales from MNCs (which are verifiable) are higher than the reported GDP then it is the GDP that is under-reported.
Countries does not go after under countries because their GDP is under valued. They go after when the under valued currency makes labor cheap VS its own country and JOBS start moving away.
You don't even understand economics at its most basic levels. A currency is considered under-valued only if the GDP is under-reported. If the GDP is oversold then the currency will lose its value because the GDP or aggregate of economic activity is considered lower than it really it. Your currency is not worth as much as you say it is.

Most countries have a hard time maintaining a higher value for their currency. Only very few countries, mainly in the Far East, like Japan and China try to under-value their currency. The only way for you to under-value your currency is to report lower GDP than what the investors believe you have.
The simple reason - not need to be hit by a bat - for CHINESE consumption absolute number is close to US absolute numbers because CHINA has 5 times the people and if 20% of them consume like US then they will be a US sized market.
And that means their GDP is around the same as the US with five times the population. Their GDP is far larger than they report. You are trying to pretend that sales does not equal GDP which is silly and logically impossible.

China reports that its GDP is barely half of the US but its sales are the same or greater than the US for all consumer goods. So for American MNCs, China is an US-sized market.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by chola »

jamwal wrote:
Putting foot in mouth again, aren't we ? Sometimes I wonder how many Indian posters on this thread know basics of even Indian economy and ground conditions. You guys make me :roll: me more than the Chinese posters.
Basic economics is no match for jingoism at times.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by jamwal »

Theo_Fidel wrote:Jamwal, what nonsense is that.

e wilds of Jammu. The idiocy of your comment is quite breath taking in it lack of understanding of geography and economics and class.

Try to do some reading on the Internets before mouthing off...

Less than Mimimum wage in Mumbai
Right
I've been following this thread since the day I joined BRF and it's the windbag syndrome of posters like you (you plus 2-3 others) which is one of the major problems plaguing it. The kind of expertise you show here is no better than a 12th pass who reads 1-2 economy related magazines and thinks he is the next Amartya Sen.
On this thread, I've been reading about China collapsing next year, CPC facing massive revolts, India surging ahead just because China is a closed, oppressed society and Indic freedom, Chanikyan wisdom and other associated BS. Guess what, not even one prediction made by your kind has come true.

You hardly even know how much people in Indian are getting paid and think that you are an economy expert on China just by reading up on interwebs. I know about internet firewall of China and a majority of Chinese posters being on govt payroll. But your posts are just hot air with no knowledge or proof to substantiate a majority of your claims .
First you bring in Mumbai in comparison with a Chinese province then call Jammu a wild land just because my post punctures a big hole in your hot air balloon. Try hitting the streets and learn about what an average graduate is earning in India. Those 6 figure packages are only for people who have come out of 'elite' colleges.
Just for sake of an example, Delhi Metro is paying around Rs 300 per day to it's semi-skilled, unskilled daily wagers.
Even Heech and to some extent Wrdos contribute better stuff than you. Atleast get your facts right if it's not possible for you to cut down your annoying rhetoric.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by heech »

subhamoy.das wrote:. So BBC is last to trust. There is no doubt the life of certain % of Chinese folks have improved a lot but a much large % lies on the other side and you Chinese poster are not willing to accept that. That is the difference between your system and Indian system. In India we have the same divide and there are two countries here INDIA ( modern and affluent and west like ) and BHARAT ( poor and holding on to old values etc ). China also has two countries inside China. Do u have local names for them? I am sure CCP will not allow us to see the other CHINA. Otherwise why there is so much media and internet control . For what reason ? Sure there is something to hide.
I'm not sure what it is that we "refuse to accept". You claim something MUST exist in China, because it exists in India. What can I possibly say in response to that? Seriously, think of it from the opposite point of view. If you are wrong, if there isn't a "much larger % of folks" who's lives haven't improved... how do you suggest that any of us prove it? Other than repeating what I said earlier, that you should buy a plane ticket and see for yourself?

There are absolutely pockets of poverty in China, especially in rural areas. But I would just point out a few factors:

- population mobility in China is now very high. The 'hukou' system which was crippling even just 10 years ago is now a much less significant issue. Probably the only limitation due to hukou is in things like college admissions + equal access to local schools + admission in pension / insurance plans. I don't deny that migrant workers are still second-class citizens... but for most, especially those who just want to work, 'hukou' is just not a big deal.

- infrastructure development is extensive. Probably at least 95% of the Chinese population live in areas with paved roads and accessible via bus/train.

- important to point out that literacy in China is extremely high. I don't have the statistics in front of me, but I suspect literacy for youths under 30 must be at least 95%.

So, really literally anyone in China can buy a bus/train ticket, and be working in Shenzhen tomorrow. If they are willing to work, they will have opportunities to make at least 1600-2000 RMB/mo (with room/board included). (And of course, over the last 10 years, literally hundreds of millions of Chinese have done exactly that.) So if that's the case... where is this "other" poor China? Why would it exist? What's precluding these people from joining in the the obvious riches in the urban areas of China?

I don't deny that there are certainly extremely poor people in China who are left out entirely. You still have maybe 5-10% of the Chinese population (which is of course 50-100 million people) without access to decent public infrastructure / education, who's kids grow up illiterate + picking through garbage piles for plastic bottles for bare survival. But for 90%+ of the Chinese population, they're absolutely participating in the economic surge of the past 20 years.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Theo_Fidel »

jamwal wrote:First you bring in Mumbai in comparison with a Chinese province
Shenzhen is not just ANY Chinese province. Learn that first. Rest of your blather, what can one say....

I'm sorry to disappoint you that China has not collapsed. Only in your confused jumbled up thoughts was that the criticism of China. Love of China should be matched by actions nah!

BTW I am 12th pass, pah......
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Suraj »

jamwal and Theo: please, enough with the ad hominems.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by member_20292 »

chola wrote: And who cares if they are third world (which they most certainly are)? What we should be concerned with is what the MNCs and Western governments are concerned with, the size of the chini markets and how it can be countered or attacked.
chola anna, you are repeating yourself.

And when I asked you a specific question a page back..you ignored it.

Dont repeat yourself. You can take charge of educating us about sales in china in different field, and something might click in readers minds.

I'll give you an example. Your posts have caused me to do some research in real life ; someone I know works for the worlds leading auto wire harness manufacturer...5 billion in global sales per annum, and I asked him about his "China" strategy. He said we have plants where our customers (the big auto companies) ask us for supplies. They ONLY focus on what their customers, i.e the volkswagens and porsches and gms of the world tell them....they ll put up plants in antarctica if it enables them to sell parts. They , thus do not have any special china thrust, mentally.

another person I know, works for a large indian fmcg . Says that again, they are FOCUSSING on their core market , India...they do not look at China at all. And they have a 50 billion USD market capitalizn despite being almost totally India focussed...their CEO is top 10 Indian cEo acc to harvard business review...so they're doing something right.

So. Since you have the ears of people around here. How about you post some more good data that gives your Indian brethren ideas??
Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Just as a reminder as to what the real call out of the Chinese economy is... ..notice the trend line...

Image
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Waylan »

It is adding more into the economy each passing year in absolute terms. Growth numbers don't need to be as high as the ones from the year before since they start from a bigger base each year.
Fancy charts will do you no good if you can't apply 5th grade math in real life. 1 % of US growth is worth more than 2% of China's growth since US have an economy base twice as big as China's. Eventually growth should slow down as base gets bigger. That doesn't mean absolute numbers get smaller. All you have to ask is what is the base it is supposed to grow on. Remember 5th grade math and think for yourself for once.
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Post by ArmenT »

From the BBC:
Beijing air pollution soars to hazard level :eek:
Air pollution in the Chinese capital Beijing has reached levels judged as hazardous to human health.

Readings from both official and unofficial monitoring stations suggested that Saturday's pollution has soared past danger levels outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO).

The air tastes of coal dust and car fumes, two of the main sources of pollution, says a BBC correspondent.
...
...
A heavy smog has smothered Beijing for many days, says the BBC's Damian Grammaticas, in the capital.

By Saturday afternoon it was so thick you could see just a few hundred metres in the city centre, our correspondent says, with tower blocks vanishing into the greyness.

Even indoors the air looked hazy, he says. :shock:
Scary stuff. Stay safe y'all.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by sanjaykumar »

Image


Image

Something like the London smog of 1952 whence 12 000 died. How many die in China?
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by zlin »

Theo_Fidel wrote:Just as a reminder as to what the real call out of the Chinese economy is... ..notice the trend line...

Image
comparing to this trend :)
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth-annual
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by zlin »

sanjaykumar wrote:Image


Image

Something like the London smog of 1952 whence 12 000 died. How many die in China?
:rotfl:
http://world.time.com/2012/11/30/indias ... an-chinas/
In a study released earlier this year, India ranked last out of 132 countries surveyed by Yale and Columbia in terms of air quality and effects on human health. Because of its high-emissions vehicles and heavy reliance on coal, the country has particularly serious levels of high-particulate matter, which leads to respiratory infections, and the problem is seen both in cities like New Delhi and smaller cities around the nation.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by zlin »

Theo_Fidel wrote:Yeah! Shenzhen is China nonsense. :roll:

BTW 1500 Yuan is roughly Rs 9,000. Less than Mimimum wage in Mumbai. I doubt too many would be willing to work at that wage in Mumbai.

I thought Panda wonder land was 4x to 5x bigger. WTF. How can you be so poor. I think you revealed something about Panda wonderland. No 50 cent for you this month.
I barely see minimum wages over Rs 6,000 in this official chart :roll:
http://www.paycheck.in/main/salary/mini ... aharashtra
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by member_20292 »

zlin.....this thread is about china. its not about how china is better than India. keep India out of it. only post or explain china.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by subhamoy.das »

jamwal wrote:
Theo_Fidel wrote:Yeah! Shenzhen is China nonsense. :roll:

BTW 1500 Yuan is roughly Rs 9,000. Less than Mimimum wage in Mumbai. I doubt too many would be willing to work at that wage in Mumbai.

I thought Panda wonder land was 4x to 5x bigger. WTF. How can you be so poor. I think you revealed something about Panda wonderland. No 50 cent for you this month.
Putting foot in mouth again, aren't we ? Sometimes I wonder how many Indian posters on this thread know basics of even Indian economy and ground conditions. You guys make me :roll: me more than the Chinese posters.

Let's just assume that 1500 Yuan is for regulated govt jobs onlee and unorganised sector is still paying less than this figure. Then compare it to latest recruitment of junior engineers in J&K state. It's on contract basis for five years probation where they will pay Rs 7000 per month for first 2 years, and 12000 for next 3 years. Full pay ( around Rs 35000 pm starting, maybe more by that time) will be given only after they complete 5 years. It's another matter that J&K is a bankrupt state due to terrorism and corruption, but still govt is offering jobs below minimum wage and people are lining up for it.
I'm no fan of Chinese regime, but try giving credit where it's due. You hardly have anything to say except a silly emoticon and half-truth of a rude reply which should get you a warning at the very least.
I am sorry to hear the pay scale for J&K engineer. All I can say that , In KOLKATA, which is not even Mumbai or Delhi in terms of job market for unskilled labor, the average monthly wage without food and lodging is about 7K per month. For semi skilled like a baker or a mason it will be 10k+. I hear from them that Delhi, Pune, Mumbai, Kerala are a lot better and their is a mad rush of migrant labors from Bengal to these places.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by subhamoy.das »

chola wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:
A 6th grader would under stand the concept of under valued currency as all they have to know is how to arrive at GDP by summing the total value of goods and service produced in local currency / units of foreign currency per local local currency and the effect of a lower dividend on the quotient.
Again, economics is not that hard. GDP equals economic activity. Sales are the calculable results of economic activity. If sales from MNCs (which are verifiable) are higher than the reported GDP then it is the GDP that is under-reported.
Countries does not go after under countries because their GDP is under valued. They go after when the under valued currency makes labor cheap VS its own country and JOBS start moving away.
You don't even understand economics at its most basic levels. A currency is considered under-valued only if the GDP is under-reported. If the GDP is oversold then the currency will lose its value because the GDP or aggregate of economic activity is considered lower than it really it. Your currency is not worth as much as you say it is.

Most countries have a hard time maintaining a higher value for their currency. Only very few countries, mainly in the Far East, like Japan and China try to under-value their currency. The only way for you to under-value your currency is to report lower GDP than what the investors believe you have.
The simple reason - not need to be hit by a bat - for CHINESE consumption absolute number is close to US absolute numbers because CHINA has 5 times the people and if 20% of them consume like US then they will be a US sized market.
And that means their GDP is around the same as the US with five times the population. Their GDP is far larger than they report. You are trying to pretend that sales does not equal GDP which is silly and logically impossible.

China reports that its GDP is barely half of the US but its sales are the same or greater than the US for all consumer goods. So for American MNCs, China is an US-sized market.
I am not sure why u are not able to see that fact that when it comes to house hold consumption like cars and phones it is GDP/head or house hold that matters and NOT absolute GDP because the COUNTRY is not the consumer but the house holds in the country are. India is worlds THIRD LARGEST GDP by PPP as per world bank and IMF and if your lahori logic would have its way then INDIA would have been the 3rd larget car market in the world after US and CHINA and INDIA would have been the third largest apple phone market after US and CHINA. Sadly it is not because its GDP per house hold is pretty low and only a small percentage of those households has US level per capita income.
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