PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby wrdos » 29 Aug 2013 10:10

It is proved once more what i have mentioned quite many times "a lot of foreign investment != dependency on foreign investment". It is why during all the crises, we have found that always BRI, especially B and I, rather than China, being more vulnerable to the flows of foreign money.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby habal » 29 Aug 2013 10:24

Boss if entire world including BRI is in doldrums, where do you think China will be at ? ehh ?

China was being artificially supported by countries like India, US; just like US was supporting India by easy liquidity. With US tightening and India in doldrums, what is China's export driven economy going to do.

ahh I get it ... Fudge more books perhaps.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby pankajs » 29 Aug 2013 13:58

Part 1 of the FT series "The Debt Dragon" was posted yesterday. Part 2 follows below.

China companies feel the investment hangover - FT(paywall)
<SNIP>
“Lots of Chinese companies rushed to expand, to be the biggest in the world. This was a source of great pride. Now we see it as a headache,” says a soft-spoken Yunwei executive, back from a business trip where he was trying to sell more of the hard black coking coal piled high in the company’s storage facility in Qujing in the southwestern province of Yunnan.

The Shanghai-listed company never quite cracked the top tier of the chemical industry in China, let alone the world, but it was not for a lack of trying. It increased its assets 30-fold over the past decade in a spree of investment, building an ethyl acetate factory, a calcium carbide production line, a coal distillation plant and lots more.

The problem is that its rivals did the same thing.

As the Chinese economy has slowed, demand for chemicals has dropped and laid bare Yunwei’s excesses. It lost Rmb1.2bn ($196m) last year, at times using just two-thirds of its production capacity. It has avoided large-scale lay-offs but only by enforcing a system of extended, unpaid holidays. Borrowing cash to stay afloat, its debt-to-asset ratio has tripled from 10 years ago to 90 per cent today, making it one of the country’s 100 most debt-laden companies, according to Chinese data provider Wind.

It is a trajectory of rising indebtedness that has been repeated across the chemical industry. Companies had been mistaken in their optimism about the Chinese economy, says Ren Jianxin, general manager of ChemChina, the country’s biggest chemical producer.

And this is just the tip of corporate China’s debt woes. Chemicals are a crucial feedstock for everything from steel to paint and plastic to textiles, so the distress of chemical companies reflects financial troubles spreading throughout China.

The rise in Chinese government debt levels has gathered more attention in recent years, but the increase in corporate debt has been even bigger. The money owed by Chinese companies shot up from 90 per cent of gross domestic product in 2007 to 124 per cent of GDP, or Rmb64tn, at the end of last year, according to JPMorgan.

The International Monetary Fund calculates that the average debt-to-equity ratio of Chinese companies increased to nearly 110 per cent last year, making China’s corporate sector more highly leveraged than those of all other big emerging markets. Corporate Brazil’s debt-to-equity ratio was less than 100 per cent, India’s was closer to 80 per cent and Russia’s was 60 per cent.

The stimulus unleashed by Beijing to counter the global financial crisis was seen as the salvation of companies at the time, but many now blame it for the increase in debt and excess capacity. “It was unavoidable. We were dragged into it by the government,” says the Yunwei executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The race to invest and get bigger took on a momentum of its own. Too much steel was being made, but so long as too many factories and homes were also being built, there was an artificially inflated market for it. The result has been a steady build-up of leverage that is eroding the strength of corporate balance sheets, says the International Monetary Fund.

<snip>

As things deteriorate, Yunwei at least has a cushion to fall back on. Its parent company is owned by the Yunnan provincial government and officials in China have shown repeatedly that they are extremely reluctant to see their local champions fail. Rongsheng, shipbuilder, Shandong Helon, textile maker, and Suntech, solar panel producer, are three high-profile cases of companies that have received crucial government support since the start of last year.

Yet this does not solve the problem. With the steady stream of bailouts, what is nominally classified as corporate debt very quickly becomes government debt. This allows China to avoid the pain of defaults, but the debt remains in the system, just in a slightly different guise.

A Chinese executive with a big international chemicals company says the day of reckoning is not far off. “Winter is approaching. You can still take your coat off and pretend it’s warm, but actually it is beginning to bite.”

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 29 Aug 2013 14:26

Very interesting times in the Chinese and Indian economies. Potentially at inflection points for both.

A few quick observations (quick because I'm typing on my Iphone):

- who said this forum is blocked? I'm on my standard China Unicom 3G connection.

- high speed rail is busier than ever. Random mid-week trip this week from Changzhou to Nanjing, even first-class cabins were filled with people buying standing-room tickets. We couldn't get 2 seats together, had to split up into two cabins. And this despite a train leaving every 30 minutes or so. Roughly $15 USD for a 35 minute, 120 km trip.

- there are both promising and discouraging signs throughout China. Many massive real estate projects built purely on speculation are booming, not just in terms of sales but also in terms of actual usage. Malls are packed, and the size of the city I live in has roughly quadruped in the past decade.

- but yet on the fringes, there are beautiful malls which are more than half empty... Often a few blocks from other thriving projects. This is stuff built in the last 2-3 years. Will they become economically productive in another 3-5 years? Stay tuned.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby member_20292 » 29 Aug 2013 23:13

^^^

you write good stuff heech. well done, and thanks for your efforts (especially for typing on a cellphone screen!)

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 31 Aug 2013 20:17

As i have repeated umpteen times, the CHINESE model of contract manufacturing their way to a wealthy nation for its 1b+ citizens will never happen as a matter of maths. You have invested loads of money and created a fine infrastructure but then you need to generate jobs to be able to use it and pay back on that investment or else you will be in red ( debt ). CHINA today is so much in the RED because its citizens does not have good paying jobs of the scale to return back on that investment. Product driven manufacturing - where the entire supply chain is inside the country and creates tons of jobs - is missing in contract manufacturing. CHINA is now moving towards service to create jobs instead of taking the product manufacturing route instead which needs INNOVATION rather than EFFICIENCY. So far I never received a list of CHINESE products which are exported around the globe and costing more than USD 250.00.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 31 Aug 2013 20:25

pankajs wrote:The penny drops – finally – on China’s economy - FT
Analysts who visit Beijing and Shanghai tend to come back having seen little evidence of China’s lost decade in the making (all credit bubbles are followed by credit busts and years of deleveraging). But venture further, as Ann Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research does, and it’s definitely there. In recent research she looked at retail sales. She didn’t get the answers the optimists might have liked. Instead she found everyone from luxury to mid-range footwear retailers saying that their revenues were down 15-20 per cent year-on-year.
There are bright spots of course. One is rising auto sales. However delve a little deeper and you will see that this is less about rebalancing to consumption than the “crack of credit.” Everyone’s offering 0 per cent financing now and in some cases buyers end up with their car for free. How? The buyer pays for the car but with the guarantee of the money back in two years. The seller invests the money in the shadow banking system where he hopes for returns of 60 per cent a year or so before selling up and giving it back. Not bad. But as Stevenson-Yang notes, in the past this kind of thing has “not ended well.” If you are getting 60 per cent on your money (or even hoping to) you are not in an investment but in a pyramid scheme of one kind of another. And if you live in a country where any meaningful part of growth is built on such pyramid schemes you are living on the edge of a crisis.


Great. I have been making large noise here about the consumer durable sales in CHINA not matching their jobs. Only some thing like a this - free car - can explain it and i was also thinking on the same line. So basically in CHINA u can get loans that u donot have to pay back. So basically u buy things for free and the state picks up your bill. It will put out own UPA to shame where they are trying to provide free food and some digging job and that too is screwing the economy. I want to relocate ASAP to such a country. CHINESE currecncy is PEGGED or else it would have sufferred a geat devalue by now!
Last edited by subhamoy.das on 31 Aug 2013 20:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 31 Aug 2013 20:29

Waylan wrote:I hope you actually know what you are talking about. Because I have no clue what you want to say.

The only problem is that CHINA is holding most of that money interms of US stocks called "Treasury Bond" and the actual money is back in US. China is at the mercy of US to sell these stocks or if the value of these stocks vanishes. They cannot simply print RBM but will have to sell these stocks to get the money first. So CHINA will have to print extra money for covering its bad loans incurred by the right hand.


CHINA does not hold 3T in cash but a vast majority of it in toilet paper called US Bonds which u cannot use to trade or convert to local currency!

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Waylan » 01 Sep 2013 04:52

subhamoy.das wrote:
subhamoy.das wrote:The only problem is that CHINA is holding most of that money interms of US stocks called "Treasury Bond" and the actual money is back in US. China is at the mercy of US to sell these stocks or if the value of these stocks vanishes. They cannot simply print RBM but will have to sell these stocks to get the money first. So CHINA will have to print extra money for covering its bad loans incurred by the right hand.

Waylan wrote:I hope you actually know what you are talking about. Because I have no clue what you want to say.

CHINA does not hold 3T in cash but a vast majority of it in toilet paper called US Bonds which u cannot use to trade or convert to local currency!

Oh so China's bond holdings cannot be used to trade or convert into local currency. And you think that's a bad thing ?
Why she cannot? Care to explain?

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby RamaY » 01 Sep 2013 05:30

^ try to take your $3T currency or convert. You will know.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby TSJones » 01 Sep 2013 05:39

^^^^Beats me. I have no idea what that dude talking about. There is a ready global market for US bonds. Easily convertible to local currency depending upon the currency laws of the nation you are trying to convert to. These guys read ru-today and they'll believe anything it says. go figure. :eek:

Like anyone is gonna dump 3T in bonds in one fell swoop.

China doesn't have 3T in US bonds anyway. Last I heard it was about 950 billion.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby svinayak » 01 Sep 2013 08:36

Some report said that US wants to create a alliance against PRC.
THis report talks about bilateral relationship with PRC

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2 ... ty-threat/


The Pentagon did an evaluation on the risks posed by China’s ownership of U.S. debt in July and came to the same conclusion: “Attempting to use U.S. Treasury securities as a coercive tool would have limited effect and likely would do more harm to China than to the United States.”

The report was sent to congressional committees by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who called China’s ownership of U.S. debt non-problematic and non-threatening.

The USBC’s take is that Chinawants its holdings of Treasury debt to gain value, not lose value. And just because interest rates are going down, that doesn’t mean China is losing value on those holdings. Lower interest rates might be bad for income generation, but they mean more demand for bonds, which means higher bond prices.

China wants the U.S. economy to prosper because that means China will be able to continue exporting here. As it is, exports from China to the European Union are all down. Exports to the U.S. are up. China is not in a position to threaten the U.S. with financial “terrorism” of any kind. A decision by China to sell off massive positions of U.S. debt would send the American economy into a downward spiral, harming not only the value of China’s investments, but also China’s export-driven economy.

The bigger issue for the U.S., says John Frisbie, director of the USBC in Washington is the size of our fiscal deficit and the long term implications for the economy, not the level of China’s debt holdings.

USBC’s leadership unveiled their trade agenda for Congress on Tuesday in a report available on their website.

“The US-China relationship is fast becoming the most important bilateral relationship for both countries, if it isn’t already,” Frisbie said in a statement on Wednesday. “Its importance is only going to grow. We need to expand our engagement. Importantly, we need to get smarter about China.”

Congressmen Charles Boustany (R-LA) and Rick Larsen (D-WA), co-chairs of the Congressional US-China Working Group, each gave brief remarks. “There is much to be gained in both economic and strategic terms if we get the relationship right, but economic and strategic difficulties lie ahead if we do not,” Larsen said.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Waylan » 01 Sep 2013 09:34

PBOC has already taken in US$3T and converted them into Yuan already. No?
Were you trying to ask a different question? Be specific.

RamaY wrote:^ try to take your $3T currency or convert. You will know.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 01 Sep 2013 11:10

Ever heard of a term called "Dollar Trap".

http://thediplomat.com/pacific-money/20 ... -reserves/

In general currency reserves are used to cover for imports. Beyond that it adds inflation for the local currency or the reserver currency. So CHINA will just have to see its stock pile of USD going up and they cannot do any usage of it beyond just using to it pay for imports because other wise it would either inflate the US currency and spooks CHINA exports or it will inflate the CHINE currency and cause inflation and social unrest.

It is like water water every where but not a drop to drink!

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Waylan » 01 Sep 2013 11:34

I can definitely smell a retard lip-syncing every fcuking news article that fits his whim without really understanding the underlying reasons or logic of it. Waste of my time.

subhamoy.das wrote:Ever heard of a term called "Dollar Trap".

http://thediplomat.com/pacific-money/20 ... -reserves/

In general currency reserves are used to cover for imports. Beyond that it adds inflation for the local currency or the reserver currency. So CHINA will just have to see its stock pile of USD going up and they cannot do any usage of it beyond just using to it pay for imports because other wise it would either inflate the US currency and spooks CHINA exports or it will inflate the CHINE currency and cause inflation and social unrest.

It is like water water every where but not a drop to drink!
Last edited by Rahul M on 18 Sep 2013 14:31, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: user warned.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 01 Sep 2013 16:54

Waylan wrote:PBOC has already taken in US$3T and converted them into Yuan already. No?
Were you trying to ask a different question? Be specific.

RamaY wrote:^ try to take your $3T currency or convert. You will know.


Are u so confused that u cannot see the diff between USD and your local currency!

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 01 Sep 2013 16:57

Waylan wrote:I can definitely smell a retard lip-syncing every fcuking news article that fits his whim without really understanding the underlying reasons or logic of it. Waste of my time.

subhamoy.das wrote:Ever heard of a term called "Dollar Trap".

http://thediplomat.com/pacific-money/20 ... -reserves/

In general currency reserves are used to cover for imports. Beyond that it adds inflation for the local currency or the reserver currency. So CHINA will just have to see its stock pile of USD going up and they cannot do any usage of it beyond just using to it pay for imports because other wise it would either inflate the US currency and spooks CHINA exports or it will inflate the CHINE currency and cause inflation and social unrest.

It is like water water every where but not a drop to drink!


Do u care to explain the logic then using you super duper intellect? What and how is this 3T reserve helping u besides buying imported goods?

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby vishvak » 01 Sep 2013 17:06

And gloating internal consumption and budgets within China too, if I am not mistaken.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby chola » 01 Sep 2013 18:59

This thread is completely useless. On one side, we have a handful of 50-centers who troll the same china threads for years and on the other we have our jingos who troll these same five 50-centers.

Ban the chini posters so we can start afresh. There can never be proper discussion if there are any chini. We can go to the WSJ or The Economist if we want their perspective but here in our forum, their presence is completely useless.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ashi » 02 Sep 2013 11:50

China factories regain footing

Factories in China appear to have snapped out of their funk in August, the latest sign that economic growth might be stabilizing in the world's second-largest economy.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Christopher Sidor » 02 Sep 2013 18:49

That is a good piece of news, if it is true. Indicators are pointing up in major economies of the world, from EU/Euro-zone to America to Japan to PRC. All the best to PRC.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ArmenT » 03 Sep 2013 09:55

From the BBC:
China sacks top economic official
China has sacked a top official responsible for overseeing state-owned companies amid a corruption probe, Chinese media say.

Jiang Jiemin was removed from office due to "suspected serious disciplinary violations", state-run news agency Xinhua said, citing authorities.
...
...
Until March, Mr Jiang was head of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). Four CNPC executives are also under investigation for corruption.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby svinayak » 05 Sep 2013 06:20

Image

100-km Chinese traffic jam enters Day 9

http://theinternetpost.net/2013/02/25/1 ... ers-day-9/

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ArmenT » 05 Sep 2013 07:35

The bad side of rapid industrialization:
China chemical spill kills thousands of fish
Chinese authorities have recovered about 100 tonnes (220,000lb) of poisoned fish from a river in central Hubei province, state media report.

The fish died after a chemical factory discharged ammonia into the Fuhe river, Xinhua news agency said.

Environmental officials blamed a nearby local firm for the incident.

This latest industrial incident comes after more than 16,000 dead pigs were recovered earlier this year from a river that runs through Shanghai.

The photos accompanying the article are truly stunning. Stay safe, y'all.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ArmenT » 05 Sep 2013 07:37

Acharya wrote:100-km Chinese traffic jam enters Day 9

http://theinternetpost.net/2013/02/25/1 ... ers-day-9/

Old news. That was some time in February.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 06 Sep 2013 11:26

Very interesting article, primarily about the Indian economy actually, but uses many data points from the Chinese economy for comparison purposes:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/05/busin ... wanted=all

Poor infrastructure has also driven up costs for industrial real estate in India, which are high compared with China’s. Just in the last five years, China has opened 5,800 miles of high-speed rail routes and 400,000 miles of highways of two or more lanes. That has allowed tens of thousands of factories to move to smaller towns in the interior with much lower land costs.

..
Roads and bridges to inland towns are not the only infrastructure problem. Shakti Industries, which thins and cuts aluminum wires for jewelry manufacturers, pays the equivalent of 15 to 18 cents per kilowatt-hour for electricity. In China, even after a round of price increases coming in late September to pay for more clean energy, factory owners will pay half as much.

..
Arun Prajapati, 21, a migrant worker at a fabric fusing machine at Challenge, said that he earned about $100 a month, just a fifth of what Chinese workers earn these days.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 06 Sep 2013 11:26

ArmenT wrote:
Acharya wrote:100-km Chinese traffic jam enters Day 9

http://theinternetpost.net/2013/02/25/1 ... ers-day-9/

Old news. That was some time in February.

Actually, if you look at the link... the original story is from 2010.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Austin » 06 Sep 2013 13:28

China says Yunnan county 'faked' economic data

China's National Bureau of Statistics has said that a county government in Yunnan province "faked" economic data, state-owned Xinhua has reported.
Authorities "coerced local companies" to inflate the value of their output to boost economic figures, it said.

The county, Luliang, was also found to have faked investment numbers.

There have been concerns over the quality of Chinese data and analysts said the development showed that it was an issue policymakers needed to tackle.

"One has been hearing stories like this for some time now," said Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management.

"The fact that the government has now admitted that this happening confirms the doubts that people have had for a long time," he told the BBC.

'Enjoy favourable policies'


If this issue is widespread, and the numbers are inflated, then growth may not have been as strong as it seems and that means policymakers may have underestimated the seriousness of the problems that China is facing”

Patrick Chivanec Silvercrest Asset Management

According to the Xinhua report, 28 companies in Luliang in south-west China reported a total of 6.34bn yuan ($1bn; £660m) in industrial output value in 2012.

However, initial calculations showed the actual value was less than half of that - 2.8bn yuan.

For their part, the companies alleged if they did not provide inflated data, then their reports were sent back by local government departments.

"They also said that fake reports would ensure they would enjoy favourable policies such as securing bank loans," the Xinhua report said.

The statistics bureau said that the issue had "seriously affected the authenticity and independence of company data".

The report also added that while it was not clear why the authorities had faked the data "it is a well-known fact that local government leaders are assessed for their performances based on economic data".

"Nice-looking data sheets mean promotion opportunities," it said.

Growth slowdown

China, the world's second-largest economy, has seen a slowdown in its growth rate in recent months.

Its economy expanded by 7.5% in the April to June quarter, from a year earlier, down from 7.7% in the previous three months.

Chinese policymakers have been taking steps to help sustain growth.

Analysts said that the issue of fake data posed a serious problem for policymakers as they tried to spur a fresh wave of economic expansion.

"They have been making economic policies based on supposition that the official numbers were roughly correct," said Mr Chovanec.

"But if this issue is widespread, and the numbers are inflated, then growth may not have been as strong as it seems and that means policymakers may have underestimated the seriousness of the problems that China is facing," he added.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Suraj » 18 Sep 2013 04:48

Very interesting gallery showing what Shenzhen looked like in 1980:
Photos of old Shenzhen

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby krishnan » 18 Sep 2013 11:23

Suraj wrote:Very interesting gallery showing what Shenzhen looked like in 1980:
Photos of old Shenzhen


interesting comment

@Sam Peckinpah:
I was just there and the pollution is god awful. My eyes burned. But, of course, they are richer then they ever have been and much more economic opportunity. On the other hand, all anybody could talk about was a) how expensive housing had become b) how 100 yuan counterfeit notes were being passed around c) how the mafia was exorting small businesses. Who knows...

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/photos-o ... z2fDrs8HaG

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 22 Sep 2013 09:08

Also some photos on the 'reality' of china. The one the bottom 80% population occupies.

http://www.businessinsider.com/side-by- ... 013-9?op=1

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 24 Sep 2013 04:09

Last week, I took a trip to Shanghai with our new baby. Because of her age, we decided to splurge and go with the more expensive "business" class seats. These seats have been much maligned by many (inside and outside of China) because of their price.... roughly 50%-80% more than normal "first class" carriages.

On this trip at least (Shanghai to Beijing route), the business class carriage was completely, 100% full. Another sign how popular high speed rail is, and how dominant it will be as a tool for travel for decades to come.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby saip » 24 Sep 2013 05:13

It may be because there is only one First class and one Business Class carriage in the train. Farewise it is comparable to Shanghai - Beijing airfare and time is probably the same. But I found the second class carriages are not that full.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby zlin » 24 Sep 2013 08:17

Poster permanently banned for trolling.
Last edited by Suraj on 24 Sep 2013 08:52, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Please find another forum to collect your 50c/post

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby TSJones » 24 Sep 2013 09:09

Theo_Fidel wrote:Also some photos on the 'reality' of china. The one the bottom 80% population occupies.

http://www.businessinsider.com/side-by- ... 013-9?op=1


I have to be honest here, Theo. As you know, I am not a fan of Chinese economic theory and practices. However, I don't think the pictures of Chinese poverty to be all that bad. I see pictures of people reasonably clothed and eating. I think the pictures of poverty show how far the Chinese have come from the "Great Leap Forward" nonsense. It's come pretty darn far. They deserve acknowledgement for it. I don't like all the other BS the Chicomms have pulled but for that, they get the nod.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby saip » 24 Sep 2013 09:30

True. We saw only the right side pictures but our guide was candid and said (s)he is not allowed take us 'there'. But still the high speed rail has no slums around it, only high rises (we can not see if they are ocuupied) and the stations (even the ones we did not stop) looked decent but did not see that many people. Even the farms we passed by (nearly 1000 miles) we did not see that many people working. May be it is because we traveled while it is sunny (11 am from Shanghai and reached Beijing at 4 pm and that is IMPRESSIVE)

Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 24 Sep 2013 10:15

TSJ,

I suspect you won't understand the dynamic an Indian gets from those images. Those images reflect how 90% of India lives. Unless you have been through those types of areas the power of the images will be lost on you. Not to offend but It is hard for an American to relate to poverty in Asia. All the subtext is illegible.

I think the entire Cultural revolution $hitstorm is overblown in the west. They managed to get 90% literacy thru the cultural revolution.
China was not as bad as it may have seemed back then and not so 'sooperior' as it likes to pretend right now.

Again 80% of chinese live like the left side images.

wrdos
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby wrdos » 24 Sep 2013 12:17

Dear Theo,

I think we all agree that China is not and will not be a perfect country. In fact, by almost any means, it is a poor country right now. The situation described on the left side of your pictures is true and in fact quite easy to be found in any Chinese cities.

But would you please give us your reference of the "80%" data? Or would you please to identify a single city or town where the "left-side" consists of up to 80% of the town?

Theo_Fidel wrote:TSJ,

I suspect you won't understand the dynamic an Indian gets from those images. Those images reflect how 90% of India lives. Unless you have been through those types of areas the power of the images will be lost on you. Not to offend but It is hard for an American to relate to poverty in Asia. All the subtext is illegible.

I think the entire Cultural revolution $hitstorm is overblown in the west. They managed to get 90% literacy thru the cultural revolution.
China was not as bad as it may have seemed back then and not so 'sooperior' as it likes to pretend right now.

Again 80% of chinese live like the left side images.

heech
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 24 Sep 2013 12:37

Keep in mind the above pictures are of areas dominated by migrant workers in Beijing. Migrant workers (those without hukou) represent something like 20% of the population of Beijing. And as I mentioned before, anyone NOT a migrant worker but native to Beijing must be a millionaire (in USD terms)... Because that's how much their government/work provided housing units are now worth. So, I also wonder how its possible "80% of Chinese" live in those conditions.

And just for frame of reference, 30 years ago 100% of Chinese lived in those conditions or worse.

wrdos
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby wrdos » 24 Sep 2013 13:47

heech wrote:And just for frame of reference, 30 years ago 100% of Chinese lived in those conditions or worse.


Heech, it was not that bad. Even 30 years ago in the 1980s, "Da Yuan" or big campuses of government/military/state company dormitory buildings, usually 3~4 stories with reliable supply of electricity/water/gas, widely stand in the cities. Up to 20% urban population was living there according to my memory.


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