PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

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kish
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by kish »

X-post from prc thread.

Comparison between Indian & Chinese economy. Chinese get jittery, jerky when they hear the words like freedom, democracy

Check out the comments section Michael, Tony, Johny, Karl are defending the communist rule :D

Beware, China: India's Economy Could Have an Even Brighter Future
Mindful of the differences in the two political economies, India’s growth may seem lower than that of China, but a close examination of the comparison is revealing. In 2014, India’s rate of growth in GDP slowed to less than 5 percent, well below the hopes and expectations of investors and analysts. Meanwhile, China claims a growth rate of over 7.5 percent in the second quarter of 2014—if you believe the official statistics :mrgreen: . The quality of India’s growth, however, is arguably superior and may suggest bright prospects for the future.
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Veteran Asia watcher James Gruber, writing in Forbes, argues that India will soon outpace China in terms of real economic growth. He writes:

Dig a little deeper though and the picture doesn’t appear as favourable for China’s economic prospects vis-a-vis India’s. First, it’s highly probable that China’s GDP growth rate is slowing much more than the fraudulent figures put out by the government :rotfl: (I’m not picking on China here as many governments are guilty of this). Second, credit tightening in China will almost certainly take years rather than months given the boom which preceded it. Third, Chinese economic reform will be a drag on growth in the near-term, as can already be evidenced by the crackdown on corruption and its impact on retail consumption.

The key aspect of the China-India comparison is that the former is a highly controlled society where market forces play little role in the country’s economic life. India is a chaotic, messy democracy where social upheaval is a regular feature of the social fabric—but is accepted as such. China’s rulers, on the other hand, fear social unrest, as illustrated by the protests in Tiananmen Square, which were crushed by the People’s Liberation Army on June 4, 1989. So fragile was the Chinese Communist rulers’ grip on power that they used armed troops to suppress a demonstration that originated with public antipathy to rising food prices.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Suraj »

China loses appeal of WTO ruling on exports of rare earths
China lost an appeal at the World Trade Organization in a case brought by the United States, the European Union and Japan to challenge China's restrictions on exports of rare earths, according to a WTO Appellate Body ruling published on Thursday.

"... China has not demonstrated that the export quotas that China applies to various forms of rare earths, tungsten and molybdenum by virtue of the series of measures at issue are justified ... " the document's conclusion said.

China produces more than 90 percent of the world's rare earths, which are key elements in defense industry components and modern technology from iPhones and disk drives to wind turbines. It imposed strict export quotas in 2010, saying it was trying to curtail pollution and preserve resources.

Prices soared by hundreds of percent, and the United States, European Union and Japan complained that the restrictions gave Chinese companies a competitive edge in products like hybrid car batteries, wind turbines and energy-efficient lighting.

China's defeat at the WTO was widely expected after it lost a similar case over exports of other commodities. It will now be obliged to cancel its export quotas to abide by the WTO ruling.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by panduranghari »

Image
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Austin »

I think it depends on how much percentage of that loan is toxic and there is no chance of recovery , IIRC Lehman collapsed because a great percentage of those loans were toxic asset.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by panduranghari »

^ 4 stages of Chinese Growth
A developing country needs to implement two sets of policies if it is to succeed in advancing to the developed stage. One set is pretty obvious. These are policies aimed at directly improving the environment under which businesses operate – by giving them the resources they need, such as good infrastructure, capital, and an educated work force.

The second set is much harder to prescribe and is aimed at improving social capital precisely so that individuals and businesses can use these resources efficiently and productively. These reforms involves creating productive incentive structures, robust and efficient legal systems with predictable enforcement, financial systems that allocate capital productively, limited political and elite interference in the wealth-creation process, limited rent seeking, clarity and ease in the ability to create businesses or otherwise create economic value for society, etc. It is perhaps worth noting that in every country, reforms that build social capital are likely to be highly idiosyncratic, and dependent on that country’s particular culture and history, which may explain why grand development theories applied uniformly to different countries never seem to work outside their country of origin.

To understand the challenges that face China today it is necessary to understand how these two sets of policies have very different political economy implications. Because the first set of policies often involves the allocation of resources from the center, it tends to receive tremendous support from a rent-capturing elite, and because these policies benefit the elite, this support tends to be self-reinforcing. The more the policies are implemented, the better for the elite, which in turn increases their power, which creates stronger support for the policies.

The second set of policies are much more difficult to implement because they often or usually require a dismantling of the distortions and frictions that create rent for the elite, thus the undermining the ability of the elite to capture a disproportionate share of the benefits of growth. A financial system that allocates capital efficiently and productively, for example, is not one that allocates capital on the basis of power or access. A fair, clear, and predictable legal system is not one in which some groups are privileged relative to others. If anyone can start a business, the benefits of monopoly or oligopoly are undermined.
1. The first liberalizing period. In the late 1970s and early 1980s Beijing forced through a series of liberalizing reforms that I would characterize as aimed at building social capital. By eliminating laws that severely constrained the ability of Chinese to behave productively, these reforms unleashed an explosion of economic activity that generated tremendous wealth creation. It became legal, for example, for Chinese to produce and sell as individuals, not just through the relevant and usually badly managed state-controlled collectives or organizations. A limited number of farmers were allowed to keep anything they produced above some quota, and agricultural yields doubled almost immediately. If a man believed there was a shortage of bricks in his town, he could create a company to manufacture bricks, and China’s hopeless jumble of soaring brick inventories in one part of the province matched by severe brick shortages nearly everywhere else was replaced with a system in which the more efficiently you made and delivered bricks, the richer both you and the country became.

But the implementation of the reforms was not easy. It undermined a very powerful party structure (not to mention the managers of the old state-controlled brick manufacturer) that had been built up over the previous three decades around the ability of its members to constrain and direct economic activity, and so these reforms met with powerful elite resistance. It was only, I would argue, because of the credibility, prestige, and power that Deng Xiaoping and the men around him had, and the loyalty they had built within the PLA, that Beijing was able to overcome elite resistance and successfully implement the reforms. Even in the 1990s, Deng struggled with elite opposition and my understanding is that his famous 1992 Southern Tour was arranged mainly to outflank and defeat provincial opposition to continued economic liberalization.

2. The “Gershenkron” period. As Chinese productive activity swelled it soon began, however, to run into infrastructure and capacity constraints. This began the second phase of China’s astonishing growth, one characterized by the marshalling of domestic resources to fund an investment boom aimed at creating infrastructure and capacity. Like the many previous examples of investment-driven growth miracles, China embarked on a program to resolve the major constraints identified by Alexander Gershenkron in the 1950s and 1960s as constraining backward economies: a) insufficient savings to fund domestic investment needs, which had to be resolved by policies that constrained consumption growth by constraining household income growth, and b) the widespread failure of the private sector to engage in productive investment, perhaps because of legal uncertainties and their inability to capture many of the externalities associated with these investments, which could be resolved by having the state identify needed investment and controlling and allocating the savings that were generated by resolving the savings constraint.

Because China’s infrastructure was far below its ability to absorb and exploit infrastructure efficiently and productively (its social capital exceeded its physical capital, in other words), it was relatively easy for the central authorities to identify productive investment projects, and as they poured money into these projects, the result was another surge in wealth creation from the early 1990s to the early 2000s. Although all Chinese benefitted from this wealth creation, the new elite benefitted disproportionately, in large part because of the constraints imposed on the growth of household income aimed at generating higher savings. Of course over time these new elites became politically entrenched. This elite today is famously referred to (in China) as the “vested interests”.

3. Investment overshooting. But China was still an undeveloped economy with “backward” (in Gershenkron’s sense) social, legal, financial and economic institutions that sharply constrained its citizens from achieving the levels of productivity that characterize developed countries. Its social capital was still very low, in some cases perhaps even as a partial consequence of policies that had led to the earlier rapid investment-led growth by allowing elites to control access to cheap capital, land, and subsidies. As investment surged, China’s physical capital converged with its social capital (i.e. its infrastructure more or less converged to its ability to exploit this infrastructure productively), after which additional physical capital was no longer capable, or much less so, of creating real wealth.

Instead, continued rapid increases in investment directed by the controlling elites (especially at the local and municipal levels) created the illusion of rapid growth. Because this growth was backed by even faster growth in debt, however, it was ultimately unsustainable. This period began around the beginning of the last decade, I would argue, and it is the period in which we currently find ourselves.

4. The second liberalizing period. What China needs now is another set of liberalizing reforms that cause a surge in social capital such that Chinese individuals and businesses have incentives to change their behavior in ways that generate greater productive activity from the same set of assets. These must include changing the legal structure, predictably enforcing business law, changing the way capital is priced and allocated, and other factors that determined the incentives, so that Chinese are more heavily rewarded for activity that increases productivity and penalized, or at least less heavily rewarded, for rent seeking.

But because this means almost by definition undermining the very policies that allow elite rent capturing (preferential access to cheap credit, most importantly), it was always likely to be strongly resisted until debt levels got high enough to create a sense of urgency. This resistance to reform over the past 7-10 years was the origin of the “vested interests” debate.

Most of the reforms proposed during the Third Plenum and championed by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang are liberalizing reforms aimed implicitly and even sometimes very explicitly at increasing social capital. In nearly every case – land reform, hukou reform, environmental repair, interest rate liberalization, governance reform in the process of allocating capital, market pricing and elimination of subsidies, privatization, etc – these reforms effectively transfer wealth from the state and the elites to the household sector and to small and medium enterprises. By doing so, they eliminate frictions that constrain productive behavior, but of course this comes at the cost of elite rent-seeking behavior.
The problem for China, of course, and as I think nearly everyone understands, is to implement these liberalizing reforms well before the country starts to bump up against its debt capacity constraints. Xi’s administration must do this against what is likely to be ferocious resistance from those who have benefitted enormously from constraints on Chinese productivity growth, and who consequently stand to lose the most from real reform.

I would argue that this is exactly what President Xi seems to be doing, and why even before he was formally in power he sought to consolidate power, undermine and frighten potential opposition, strengthen his relationship with the military, and unify the country’s policymakers behind the need for reforms. This may also be why PBoC Governor Zhou – who was among the first senior policymakers, I believe, to recognize the urgent need for China to rebalance economic growth away from the current debt-addicted model – seems to be among the key economic decision-makers.

Unless President Xi is successful in consolidating power and control over economic assets, an abundance of historical precedents suggests that he is unlikely to overcome powerful elite resistance. If he is successful – and for now I am cautiously optimistic that he will pull it off – he will be in a position to implement the urgently needed liberalizing reforms that will push China onto its next stage of sustainable productivity growth, in which case he is likely to be hailed as China’s greatest leader since Deng Xiaoping – and for many of the same reasons.

Perhaps not everyone in Beijing understands, however, that this will happen only after a difficult and probably long adjustment period, during which GDP growth rates, although not necessarily household income growth rates, must fall far more than they already have, for reasons I have discussed elsewhere. This matters to the long-term success of China’s reforms, because sharply slowing growth may revive or unify political opposition.

In fact I suspect the reason credit growth in the past year or two has not slowed nearly as sharply as it should, or as sharply as required by the economic analysis implicit in the Third Plenum reform proposals, is precisely because of the expected impact of meaningful credit constraint on GDP growth. Any attempt to rein in credit will sharply reduce GDP growth, and there is of course likely to be a positive correlation between lower growth and a stronger and more unified opposition. Xi must take steps to slow growth, but he might not yet be able to do so.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Rishirishi »

Austin wrote:I think it depends on how much percentage of that loan is toxic and there is no chance of recovery , IIRC Lehman collapsed because a great percentage of those loans were toxic asset.
According to the URL below, bad debts are very very high. Up to 3 trillion dollars. some even put it to 2,5 times the GDP.


http://qz.com/234779/chinas-enormous-ba ... y-experts/
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Austin »

In the link it mentions the bad debt between $1 to $3 trillion ....I would assume most of these are state companies.

China have the advantage that it is growing at 6 % and has huge internal market ....so as long as the party is going they wouldnt care .....its only when they start growing that 2-3 % they would worry about these bad debts.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

panduranghari wrote:Image
what a wrong comparsion.

Leman was a investment bank while the listed Chinese banks are all Commercial Bank.

most of Leman assets are stocks ,which value vibate frequently according to the stock market price.


most of CHinese banks assets are loans ,which usually has real asset as The mortgaged property.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

Sri wrote:Dear Liu,

I have a colleague who bought one Mi3 recently. There were a lot of localisation issues. The charge plug is not of Indian standards. Even the user Manual was in Chinese. May be as market matures Xioami will do more localization. My friend is not complaining.
the minu system of MI3 is nice...

my wife is going to order one mi4..
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by panduranghari »

Liu wrote: what a wrong comparsion.

Leman was a investment bank while the listed Chinese banks are all Commercial Bank.

most of Leman assets are stocks ,which value vibate frequently according to the stock market price.


most of CHinese banks assets are loans ,which usually has real asset as The mortgaged property.
I am afraid you are making classical assumptions. There is a guy called Mark Pettis who is a professor in economics who teaches in Peking university. He used to teach in Columbia. He knows better than you or me. And he lives in China so his opinions are with understanding of the ground realities.

Losses cannot be socialised
I think a similar misunderstanding is taking place in the analysis of Chinese debt. Clearly in the past two or three years there has been a huge shift in market perceptions of Chinese debt. Everyone recognizes that debt has become a serious problem.

But there are two very different ways to recognize this. Some believe that the Chinese financial system, and perhaps the shadow banking system more specifically, took a number of wrong steps, compounded by the lack of discipline among local governments, and created a debt problem. By that logic, Beijing can take administrative steps to address credit creation and to bring debt under control. It is especially important, according to this view, to analyze the source of risky credit creation and to suppress it, which is perhaps why so much attention of late has been placed on the shadow banking system and on ways in which Beijing can “resolve” the existing stock of bad debt.

My view is different. Burgeoning debt was not an unlucky accident. It is fundamental to the way the growth model works, and we have arrived at the stage, probably described most imaginatively by Hyman Minsky in his work on balance sheets, in which the system requires an acceleration in credit growth simply to maintain existing levels of economic activity.

China’s debt problems, in other words, cannot be resolved administratively, by fixing the shadow banking system, by imposing discipline on borrowers, or indeed by eliminating financial repression (much of which, by the way, has already been squeezed out of the system by lower nominal GDP growth). Without a massive transfer of wealth from the state sector to the household sector it will be impossible, I would argue, for GDP growth rates of anything above 3-4% – and perhaps even less – to occur without a further unsustainable increase in debt, whether that increase occurs inside or outside the formal banking system and whether or not discipline has been imposed on borrowers.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by chaanakya »

China inaugurates new rail link in Tibet, close to Indian border in Sikkim
BEIJING: China on Friday inaugurated its second railway line in Tibet, built at a cost of $2.16 billion, close to Indian border in Sikkim, enhancing mobility of its military in the remote and strategic Himalayan region.

The 253-km railway line links Tibet's provincial capital Lhasa with Xigaze, the second-largest city in Tibet and also the traditional seat of the pro-Beijing Panchen Lama — stated to be second important Monk in Tibetan hierarchy
It reduces the travel time between Lhasa and Xigaze from the current four hours by highway to around two hours, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

It is the second railway line in Tibet and an extension of the Qinghai-Tibet railway, the world's highest rail link connecting China's mainland with Tibet.

Construction of the railway line started in 2010 with an investment of 13.28 billion yuan ($2.16 billion).

In addition to this, China last month unveiled plans to construct a new crucial railway line in Tibet close to Arunachal Pradesh, which Chinese analysts say could act as a "bargaining chip" during the border talks with India.
The construction of another railway line linking Lhasa to Nyingchi in the east is also expected to start soon, recent official media report said.

Nyingchi is located right close to Arunachal, the nearest area to the border. China claims Arunachal as part of Tibet.

The railway expansion will connect, Nepal, Bhutan and India by 2020, the report said.
The construction of a railway connecting Xigaze with Gyirong county, close to Nepal, will be constructed under the five year plan ending 2020, an official recently said.

Gyirong county has a checkpoint connecting Nepal and Yatung county, close to Indian border near Sikkim and Bhutan, a trade centre bordering India and Bhutan.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by satya »

If a bank cannot liquidate an asset against which it has the loan , it doesn't matter if its a physical asset or a paper one.In both types of assets , bank can continue to keep the 'asset' on its book by assigning a value . Before 2008 it used to be marked to market value ie what the market think the fair price or value is of that particular asset but 2008 changed all that since market for a range of assets became illliquid so Fed allowed banks to keep such assets ( paper in most cases) marked to pre-2008 crisis value or something around that. On paper PRC too can do that ie print yuan and keep bank's book in order but what to do with millions of chinese workers who depend on chinese infrastructure sector for their livelihood/employment .For chinese worker's employment chinese banks have no choice but to continue to issue new loans for ever new ghost cities since there are not so many real chinese buyers.Had there been real chinese buyers buying to live ghost cities/unoccupied apartments blocks/apartments would not exist in first place.They exist in absence of real demand. If this is the situation now just imagine what will be the situation in 3-5 years from now when hundreds of real estate projects would have been completed. Here PRC face a bigger problem that US didn't ie massive employment connected to real estate . IIRC investment in creation of physical assets still constitute a major part of chinese economy .Chinese banks can keep these real estate assets on paper but where will they find the buyers other than phantom REITs !
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Vriksh »

A relative is in Shanghai and says though the Infrastructure is top notch it is undersized for the mass of humanity living there. Though he may be comparing it with US layouts which are more spread out. The correct comparison should be Tokyo.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Rishirishi »

Shanghai has an excellent infrastructure. But there are problems with quality of water and traffic. Traffic problems are everywhere.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by sanjaykumar »

Shanghai has an excellent infrastructure.
Not only that the pollution has benefits:

According to Yahoo News, China's state broadcaster CCTV attempted to shine some absurd light on the smog situation by listing five reasons as to why this air pollution is beneficial. The list is as follows:
It unifies the Chinese people.
It makes China more equal.
It raises citizen awareness of the cost of China's economic development.
It makes people funnier.
It makes people more knowledgeable (of things like meteorology and the English word 'haze').
- See more at: http://www.dailytech.com/Chinese+Media+ ... 1fynG.dpuf
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

Anti-corruption Nacht der langen Messer in SHanxi province, CHina

On the night of June,30,1934, Hilter suppressed hundreds of opponents and challengers ,which is usually called Nacht der langen Messer.


Now, when anti-corruption tide is sweeping Shanxi province, CHina, almost all local senior officials and CCP boss find they are on Nacht der langen Messer too...

According to the reports, 4 of 13 province top CCP bosses, which are the members of Standing committee of the provincial party committee,have been arrested under the accusation of corruption in one month.
the top boss , Shanxi Provincial party committee secretary also has been replaced recently with a guy,which is famous for iron fist against currption.

CCP's Commission for discipline inspection, the top anti-corruption administration in CHIna, has declared that " the whole officialdom in Shanxi province is accustomed to corruption".


people believe that more senior officials in Shanxi provices will be investgated during the anti-corruption Nacht der langen Messer
Last edited by Liu on 05 Sep 2014 18:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

well,
here is a introduction how CCP runs CHina....


The politburo of CCP is the Board of CHina,which runs CHina. it usuall has about 2 dozen members and 7-9 standing members. the chief member of CCP's politburo is also the chief secretary of CCP and usually CHina's president.
the 7-9 standing members of CCP's politburo are legally equal coleagues and each of them owns one vote when making decisions.
So,it is CCP's politburo,instead of any indivivual, that collectively "dictators" CHina.



as for provinc-level and county-level, local CCP also has its own Board, the Standing committee of the local party committee. such a standing committee usually also has about one dozen members and all members are named/sacked by its superior standing committee.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Austin »

Alan Greenspan China’s debt bubble is going to burst

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-1 ... omy-stinks
China’s debt bubble is going to burst.

China’s overall level of debt has gone from 140% of its GDP to 230% of GDP, which Greenspan glibly remarked is a sure sign that the Chinese economy is becoming overleveraged. It is requiring ever-larger amounts of social debt to fuel the country’s growth rate.

Greenspan noted that China has had “a remarkable run” the likes of which have never been seen before in measurable history. But, its gains in productivity and standards of living were all done with borrowed capital and technology. Annual lists of the world’s most innovative companies feature no Chinese companies, and nearly half of those lists are made up of American companies. This is leading to a narrowing productivity gap between China and the U.S. that is putting serious pressure on the Chinese economy.

The reality is that China is hitting the ceiling and its growth rate must slow. But when you have a one-party political system, there usually isn’t a whole lot of out-of-the-box thinking, which is precisely what China needs right now. And since you can’t divorce economic thought from political thought, this does not point toward good things for China. The Chinese hierarchy is acutely aware of this, Greenspan said, and it plans to allow a number of companies go into bankruptcy.

This is big, since most of the institutional lending in China has been backed by the government. There is a substantial amount of essentially shadow banking that operates with the same presumed backing of the government, but that backing is not really there, and the government is about to let some companies know that the hard way. Look for some Chinese defaults in the future, perhaps in its seriously overextended steel industry or elsewhere in tis manufacturing sectors.

That said, Greenspan also noted that while bubbles, by definition, burst, not all bubbles are toxic. The dot-com bubble bursting in the 1990s was individually ruinous for many people, but it was not an institutional bubble. The subprime mortgate situation in the late 2000s was an institutional situation. China knows the difference and is doing everything to ensure that when its bubble bursts, it'll be the first kind of problem and not the second kind. Will they succeed? Who knows.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Shaashtanga »

All this rapid economic growth of China is fine and dandy but what about the air /water / soil pollution. China will end up spending their Forex reserves to clean up their air / water / soil and make it live-able again. This is what happens when you allow un-restricted growth under a 1 party system with no checks or balances.

Here are the options for CPC -

1). Spend 1 trillion USD each for cleaning their air / water / soil so that their most populated & urbanized cities are livable again and not cancer death traps.

2). Move their populations inwards (arid regions but less pollution or the ghost cities they have built)

All this rapid & un-controlled growth of the Chinese reminds me of a dying star just as it burns the brightest before collapsing onto itself.

Now it will be fun to see how Mr.Liu counters this or will he try to give this a positive spin that the pollution is making the Chinese population for resilient.



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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Picklu »

Were they banned or did the 50 cent-ers left BRF en-mass, like their soldier brethren in Chumar, once it became clear that NaMo trumps Eleven always and every time?
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by svinayak »

Picklu wrote:Were they banned or did the 50 cent-ers left BRF en-mass, like their soldier brethren in Chumar, once it became clear that NaMo trumps Eleven always and every time?
The instructions are very clear from the HQ

The strategy of baiting Indians in forums and learning what Indians try to compare and what facts Indians use is no longer applicable
Their 30 years secretly watching what Indians do and what Indians talk is not working anymore. World has become too complex for them to keep tab on India and simply trying to out-do India.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by ashi »

Deleted
Last edited by Suraj on 01 Oct 2014 10:35, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Stick to the topic.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by svinayak »

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/a ... y+Thursday
Alert From Chongqing: Foxconn Strike Is An Epochal Inflection Point
by David Stockman • October 9, 2014

Foxconn workers are striking again—this time in Chongqing. But you have to look at the map to see why this is an event of extraordinary significance. In a word, these strikes mean that the rice paddies of China have been nearly drained of cheap, docile labor.



So the strikes in Chongqing are of potentially epochal significance. It was the two-decades-long flow of quasi-slave labor into the export factories of east China that enabled the major global central banks to go on a money printing rampage like the world has never before seen. Yet during that same period the induction of several hundred million peasants into the world’s factory system caused worldwide prices of consumer goods to fall, even as the money printers were enabling an orgy of credit-fueled spending by American and European households.

Yes, there is an extensive geography west of Chongqing, but here’s what it mostly consists of: mountains, as in the massive Plateau of Tibet; arid lands, culminating in the forbidding Gobi Desert; and the factory-less rain forests of southwest China.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by member_28756 »

A green light for China to take over Australian resources via "investment" :roll:

Australia and China seal major free trade deal

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-30076974
China and Australia have sealed a major free trade agreement, as Chinese President Xi Jinping made a rare address to parliament in Canberra.

The deal, the result of a decade of talks, will open up markets worth billions of dollars, Canberra says.

It will give Australian dairy farmers, winemakers and other sectors tariff-free access to the huge Chinese market within a few years.

Meanwhile, China is seeking greater access for its investment projects.

Mr Xi is on a state visit to Australia following the G20 summit. In his speech to parliament, he vowed China would pursue peaceful development with Australia and other nations.

'Tariff-free'
Ministers from China and Australia signed a Declaration of Intent on Monday, however the agreement will be signed in 2015 after the draft is translated and legally reviewed, a statement said.

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott described the deal as the first China had concluded "with a substantial economy, with a major economy; and it's the most comprehensive agreement that China has concluded with anyone".

The big winners are seen to be Australia's dairy and beef industries which will see tariffs removed. Parliamentary Secretary Josh Frydenberg said the agreement meant that "up to 95% of our exports over time will enter the Chinese market tariff-free".

In the past two decades, trade between Australia and China has grown substantially, with China now Australia's largest two-way trading partner, according to the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

In 2013, trade between the two countries was worth A$150bn. The government has said the deal could add A$20bn to that figure, however the full details of the benefits are yet to be released.

This is the third FTA signed by Canberra this year, following similar agreements with South Korea and Japan, as Australia looks to increase its exports of food and agricultural products to feed Asia's growing middle class.

China-Australia free trade deal: key points

Gives Australian exporters wider access to the lucrative Chinese market and private Chinese investors more freedom to put their money in Australia.
About 85% of Australian exports into China will not incur tariffs, including dairy, beef, leather, mineral commodities and horticulture. Set to increase to 95% on full implementation of the deal.
Chinese exports to Australia such as clothes, shoes, vehicles and electronics will be tariff-free.
Threshold for Chinese investment in Australia without need for a government review raised to A$1.078bn from A$248m.
Service sectors in both countries will benefit with freer access to industries such as healthcare, tourism, construction, banking and insurance.


However, Australia failed to get a reduction in tariffs on key commodities such as rice, wheat, cotton and sugar.

China was not able to get Australia to change its practise of scrutiny by the foreign investment review board on all investment by state-owned enterprises, which make up most of Chinese investments.

The deal is not without its critics. Last week, Senator Bill Heffernan, a senior member of Australia's Liberal Party, warned that China's refusal to float its currency could give it a big advantage over Australia.

In his comments to parliament, Mr Xi said the agreement would "create a high-level platform and provide better institutional arrangements for our economic co-operation".

Along with pledging deeper co-operation with Australia, Mr Xi also said China was willing to resolve territorial disputes with its neighbours in a peaceful manner.

"The Chinese government is ready to enhance dialogue and co-operation with relevant countries to jointly maintain freedom of navigation and safety of maritime rules," he said.

China is embroiled in territorial disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea with several countries including Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines.

Mr Xi said China would never use force to achieve Beijing's goals.
panduranghari
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by panduranghari »

http://thedailycoin.org/?p=12109#sthash ... InEWf.dpbs

Insiders claim China has amassed 30,000 tons of Gold bullion.
girish.r
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by girish.r »

Jaguar Land Rover Not Amused by Chinese ‘LandWind’ Lookalike


Image

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014 ... /?mod=e2tw

Jaguar Land Rover in China has vowed to take action against Chinese car brand LandWind for producing a sport-utility vehicle that bears an uncanny resemblance to its Range Rover Evoque.

LandWind, which is owned by a joint venture company formed between Chinese companies Changan Auto and Jiangling Motors, unveiled the vehicle – which it calls the X7 — at the Guangzhou auto show in southern China last week.
sanjaykumar
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by sanjaykumar »

Not sure they need to, driving a Land Wind would mark out the country yokel, even in China.
Liu
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

girish.r wrote:Jaguar Land Rover Not Amused by Chinese ‘LandWind’ Lookalike


Image

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014 ... /?mod=e2tw

Jaguar Land Rover in China has vowed to take action against Chinese car brand LandWind for producing a sport-utility vehicle that bears an uncanny resemblance to its Range Rover Evoque.

LandWind, which is owned by a joint venture company formed between Chinese companies Changan Auto and Jiangling Motors, unveiled the vehicle – which it calls the X7 — at the Guangzhou auto show in southern China last week.
if X7 can perform as well as rover, then rover obviously is overpriced and should consider cut down its price for survival.

most people would not pay one penny ,just for it is "rover".
amritk
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by amritk »

Come on Liu. You know as well as anyone that Chinese are still suckers for foreign brands. It's a side effect of the media isolation from the world. Sometimes I think China could become the most powerful country on earth but the Chinese people would still be deeply unhappy because they would not know that. :D
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by vishvak »

Tatas could have started the Jaguar Land Rover /Range Rover plant in India and avoided the circus.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Rishirishi »

Liu wrote:
girish.r wrote:Jaguar Land Rover Not Amused by Chinese ‘LandWind’ Lookalike


Image

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014 ... /?mod=e2tw

Jaguar Land Rover in China has vowed to take action against Chinese car brand LandWind for producing a sport-utility vehicle that bears an uncanny resemblance to its Range Rover Evoque.

LandWind, which is owned by a joint venture company formed between Chinese companies Changan Auto and Jiangling Motors, unveiled the vehicle – which it calls the X7 — at the Guangzhou auto show in southern China last week.
if X7 can perform as well as rover, then rover obviously is overpriced and should consider cut down its price for survival.

most people would not pay one penny ,just for it is "rover".
Only the looks are same. Everyone knows what the rest is. I have tried everything from QQ to BYD. Most of the Chinease brands are crap. The chinease could probably produce as good cars as any, but no one would want to pay the price of a Toyota for the brand of QQ.
Liu
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

Rishirishi wrote:
Liu wrote: if X7 can perform as well as rover, then rover obviously is overpriced and should consider cut down its price for survival.

most people would not pay one penny ,just for it is "rover".
Only the looks are same. Everyone knows what the rest is. I have tried everything from QQ to BYD. Most of the Chinease brands are crap. The chinease could probably produce as good cars as any, but no one would want to pay the price of a Toyota for the brand of QQ.
well,
every auto has its lowend and highend brand, you can not count on that 10KUSD QQ performs as well as Toytota higher-end brand.

you should compaire the same-class CHinese auto,such as Geely's EC7 with Toyata's
EC7 costs about 80-120K RMB while Collora costs 100-140K RMB in CHina. collora is a bit more expensive,but both are widely looked on as the same class,which is the typical family car for ordinary employees class.
Geely's EM7
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 13378.html
Toyota's collora
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 23148.html


BTW, Xiaomi proves that cheap product sometimes also can perform well. it also proves that sometimes it is not made-china is too cheap,but some West-made/Japan-made are overpriced.
Last edited by Liu on 29 Nov 2014 11:15, edited 2 times in total.
Liu
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

vishvak wrote:Tatas could have started the Jaguar Land Rover /Range Rover plant in India and avoided the circus.
well, I can provide another Chinese "copy" of Land rover "Evoque aurora"
http://car.autohome.com.cn/duibi/tupian ... ,18493,0,0
that is CHinese Chang'An CS75
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 83623.html
Land rover "Evoque aurora"
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 89335.html
CS75 costs only 100-140K RMB while Land rover "Evoque aurora" costs 520-660K RMB in CHina
however, CS75 Seems not bad at all. I am very keen on it,because I am going to replace my family car with a SUV,with the budget less than 250K RMB.
here are the internal picture of CS75,it almost has all necceary features of a SUV,such as radars,Auto AC,GPS,and ABS and so on.
here is some pic about CS75
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 87187.html
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/18493/10/2483610.html
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/18493/10/2483606.html
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/18493/10/2483578.html
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/18493/3/2483565.html
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/18493/3/2483501.html
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/18493/12/2483449.html
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/18493/1/2483620.html
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/18493/1/2483620.html
sanjaykumar
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by sanjaykumar »

most people would not pay one penny ,just for it is "rover".


:?:


Then why simulate a real Range Rover?
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Shankas »

The Chang'An CS75 is the result of a Ranger Rover Evoq mounting a Ford Escape :rotfl: :rotfl:
sanjaykumar
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by sanjaykumar »

....that failed to escape.
Liu
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

Shankas wrote:The Chang'An CS75 is the result of a Ranger Rover Evoq mounting a Ford Escape :rotfl: :rotfl:
My family auto now is GM's excelle. it is the my first auto and bought in early 2012. now it has run 30K KM.I am going to replace it with a SUV the next year ,when the car will have run 40000-50000 KM.
GM's excelle is not popular among CHinese youth,because CHinese youth think it is too " old fashion" and only "glassy-eyes old uncles" are ready to buy it........
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 37808.html



My family auto replacement plan has a budget of 150-250K RMB.
Ford Escase ,as well as Nissan qashqai, is also on the shortlist of the plan,because either of Ford Escape and Nissan qashiqai costs about 160-240K RMB in CHina.

however, now I find that Chang'an Cs75 has almost all features of Escape and Qashiqai,but costs only 2/3 of them...

so, I now have to rethink may auto replacement plan.

here are the candidates on the shortlists
http://car.autohome.com.cn/duibi/tupian ... 9791,12765
Ford escape ,which costs 160-240K RMB
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 21521.html
Nissan qashqai,which costs 130-220K RMB
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 60726.html

Chinese Greatwall Hoval H6,which costs 120-170K RMB
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 01733.html

Chinese Chang'an Cs75,which costs 110-150K RMB.
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 83623.html
Last edited by Liu on 30 Nov 2014 20:49, edited 4 times in total.
Liu
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Liu »

the drivers of different auto brand usually leave different impression on Chinese people.
here are a popular joke,tell us the difference of those impressions.

the owner of GM's excelle, are usually glassy-eyed Uncle at the age of 40s-50s.....well I have always regretted been looked on as a "Glassy-eyed Uncle" ,since I bought one GM Excelle...
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 37808.html

the owner of Focus, are usually those youth who are born in 1980s and enjoys racing.
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 43092.html

the owner of Rongwei350( one cheap car ,costs only 800-120KRMB),are usually those freshmen who has just got a long-term job.
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 20400.html

the onwner of elantra, are usually those red-neck from villages.
http://car.autohome.com.cn/photo/series ... 38548.html
Last edited by Liu on 30 Nov 2014 20:29, edited 2 times in total.
Christopher Sidor
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Post by Christopher Sidor »

Thanks Liu your posts have been the most informative. How do you plan to pay for your automobile? Is it through financing or is it an outright purchase? If it is financing, what is the rate of interest that you will or are paying? Is it fixed for the tenure of the loan or is it floating?

And if possible can you please shed some light on how an average PRC citizen purchases his automobile?
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