PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 10 Feb 2012 02:15

China's Inflation Rises Faster Than Expected

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 58466.html

BEIJING—Inflation in China accelerated unexpectedly in January because of higher food prices during the Lunar New Year holiday. The pickup in inflation breaks a five-month trend of moderating price increases, raising concerns that Beijing may not be able to loosen policy aggressively to support growth. Nonetheless, economists said they expect inflation to continue to decline in the months ahead, after the holiday effect has faded. "Food price inflation, in particular, saw a big jump higher in January," Royal Bank of Canada economist Brian Jackson said in a note. "Nevertheless, the downward

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 10 Feb 2012 02:18

Gold Confirms Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless

There is reason to believe investments in China will eventually be worthless for firms such as PetroChina (PTR) and China Life (LFC) and that the supply chains of companies sourcing in China such as Apple (AAPL) and Walmart (WMT) will eventually be broken. The question now is how soon? (There is an entire December 26 Seeking Alpha article "Why Investments in China Will Eventually Be Worthless" explaining why this will occur.)
Presently there is an implicit social contract between the Chinese people and their ostensibly communist government: the people don't challenge the government and, in exchange, get a degree of economic freedom and access to better paying jobs. In essence, the political leadership provides stability and mostly low-wage job opportunities and, in exchange, gets to remain in control while its officials and their cronies get rich.In other words, the situation is similar to that which prevailed until recently in Tunesia, Yemen, Libya, Eygpt, and Syria - because there is no democracy and no rule of law there is no way except revolution to change the government.
China's Social Contract is breaking faster than expected.
Recent indicators and activities suggest the investment collapse and end of Chinese producers as reliable supply sources may occur sooner than was initially expected. The people's social contract with the Party appears to be rapidly breaking down - and there will be the usual chaos, collapse, and redistribution of wealth and power when it does.hina's basic and accelerating problem is the lack of the rule of law and the all-encompassing corruption that has been enriching government officials and their cronies while leaving great masses of Chinese people throughout the entire country in relative poverty.
In a word, the income distribution is worsening and civil and political upheaval appears to be accelerating - just as it did in Tunesia, Libya, Yemen, Eygpt, and Syria, and earlier in Russia and the USSR.
The indicators confirming the coming collapse.
The first indicator is the huge increase in the Chinese demand for gold. Gold is where people go when they cannot actually leave a distressed economy. It is a very significant indicator of what the Chinese man-in-the-street thinks of the future that China imported 428 tons of gold from Hong Kong in 2011 compared to 119 tons in 2010. In essence, people who can't get out of the country are moving their wealth into gold.

The second indicator is related to the first - the apparent unwillingness of the man-in-the-street to deposit money into Chinese banks. The banks are extensions of the government which provides their funds and directs their lending. If the government changes the banks will almost certainly collapse or significantly change.

The third indicator is the recent increase of wealthy Chinese buying property and investing overseas instead of in China and Chinese manufacturers such as Foxconn (FXCNF.PK) establishing overseas operations in places such as Mexico, Brazil, and the Czech Republic despite their labor costs being higher than in China.
The fourth indicator is that Apple (APPL) and Walmart (WMT) have begun diversifying their supply changes away from China, apparently as fast as they can. Its what savvy companies do when they see problems ahead.

The fifth indicator is the effort of the Chinese government to suppress the news and prevent communications between its potential opponents. Syria's doing the same thing. It's what authoritarian governments do when they are afraid of their own people.

The sixth indicator is social unrest. In 2010 there appears to have been as many as 180,000 "mass incidents" - public demonstrations and protests against public officials and policies - despite jailings, beatings, and deaths. That's up from 87,000 in 2005.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/353251- ... -worthless

member_20810 · Post by **member_20810** » 10 Feb 2012 04:51

A Land Grab Epidemic: China’s Wonderful World of Wukans

from http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2012/02/07/a- ... e-atlantic

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 10 Feb 2012 06:26

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Feb 2012 07:10

Jhujar wrote:http://seekingalpha.com/article/353251- ... -worthless

Nice article, even though some of the speculation may be a bit premature. With the CPC announcing recently a commitment to a 13 per cent wage hike annually (however, they can always go back on that after the succession) the "China price" will take a hit sooner than later.

Even though China has indeed made some impressive strides in high-end, high-skilled and high paying jobs, the vast majority of Chinese work in price sensitive jobs like those provided by Foxconn. These jobs will simply move out of China the moment the cost crossed a certain thresh hold.

As China inevitably goes up the wage ladder will they be able to move up the value chain in sync? That's the million dollar (or should that be yuan?) question.

I particularly liked this part of the article:

Presently there is an implicit social contract between the Chinese people and their ostensibly communist government: the people don't challenge the government and, in exchange, get a degree of economic freedom and access to better paying jobs. In essence, the political leadership provides stability and mostly low-wage job opportunities and, in exchange, gets to remain in control while its officials and their cronies get rich.In other words, the situation is similar to that which prevailed until recently in Tunesia, Yemen, Libya, Eygpt, and Syria - because there is no democracy and no rule of law there is no way except revolution to change the government.
China's Social Contract is breaking faster than expected.
Recent indicators and activities suggest the investment collapse and end of Chinese producers as reliable supply sources may occur sooner than was initially expected. The people's social contract with the Party appears to be rapidly breaking down - and there will be the usual chaos, collapse, and redistribution of wealth and power when it does China's basic and accelerating problem is the lack of the rule of law and the all-encompassing corruption that has been enriching government officials and their cronies while leaving great masses of Chinese people throughout the entire country in relative poverty.
In a word, the income distribution is worsening and civil and political upheaval appears to be accelerating - just as it did in Tunesia, Libya, Yemen, Eygpt, and Syria, and earlier in Russia and the USSR.
The indicators confirming the coming collapse.

Maybe a collaspe per say may not happen. However, a major unheaval is certainly on the cards IMO. If that happens within the next five-10 years, then that's the period when IMO we may have a major incident on our borders. That could explain the rather surprising alacrity being shown by our govt to shore up infra and fighting capabilities at the China border.

JMT

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 10 Feb 2012 07:18

Theo_Fidel wrote:

Freakish . The instructor has a whip and the kids are crying .

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 10 Feb 2012 10:38

Originally quoted by Theo, and fixed the link.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 10 Feb 2012 10:41

Chinese imports fall sharply in January

It seems last quarter Chinese bump in exporter are probably related to western holiday buying spree, and now it is down again signalling a cyclical downturn, and probably and slowly manufactures are moving out of China. JMT.

wrdos · Post by **wrdos** » 10 Feb 2012 14:54

I personally suggest you to wait for 1 more month to give the conclusions.

Chinese new year varies between January and February every year. Last year it was February and this year January. You know, it is the most important holiday of a year with at least 7-10 days off for almost every company.

Therefore in China, we usually use the combination of Jan. and Feb. data, since the single month data of the two months is seriously distorted by the seasonal factor.

kmkraoind wrote:Chinese imports fall sharply in January

It seems last quarter Chinese bump in exporter are probably related to western holiday buying spree, and now it is down again signalling a cyclical downturn, and probably and slowly manufactures are moving out of China. JMT.

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 10 Feb 2012 20:18

kmkraoind wrote:Originally quoted by Theo, and fixed the link.

Here's the complete story

Chinese Gymnastics Kids: Training with Tears, Sweat, & Dreams

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 10 Feb 2012 23:17

Truly a profoundly civilised race.

sampat · Post by **sampat** » 13 Feb 2012 01:49

Traveling Light in a Time of Digital Thievery

He leaves his cellphone and laptop at home and instead brings “loaner” devices, which he erases before he leaves the United States and wipes clean the minute he returns. In China, he disables Bluetooth and Wi-Fi, never lets his phone out of his sight and, in meetings, not only turns off his phone but also removes the battery, for fear his microphone could be turned on remotely.

interesting read..

amit · Post by **amit** » 13 Feb 2012 09:54

anishns wrote:Here's the complete story

Chinese Gymnastics Kids: Training with Tears, Sweat, & Dreams

I personally think this story and the general reaction here (and my reaction is in perfect sync with what others here have been saying) shows a stark civilizational difference between us and what the CPC has turned China into after 60 years. This in turn has a profound impact in many areas including the economic aspects we discuss on this thread. Indulge me a bit and let me explain.

The heart wrenching picture in this story pained us all. But if you ask our Chinese friends on this thread I'll bet you what they would say is this: "So what? Look at our women gymnasts they are among the best in the world. Your country doesn't have any women gymnasts who are anywhere near to top in Asia let alone the world. So China> India".

Of course this is a hypothetical statement and in actuality the message would probably be delivered in a more cultured and nuanced manner. However the whole intention would still be the last sentence, that is bottomline: China> India.

Now most of us (including myself) would counter that statement by saying in essence: Ends don't justify the means and we'd rather not have world class women gymnasts than put poor little girls through such torture and rob their childhood.

That's what I mean by a difference in civilizational approach.

This same difference is evident in the economic sphere as well.

And so while we gush in envy at things like how a backwater town like Pudong in Shanghai has been turned into a gleaming airport and suburb; how China has the world's largest concentration of skyscrapers; and how China virtually assembles the entire iPhone etc, we never pause to think if we are willing to pay the cost that China has and is paying in order to do all these things which we cannot do?

In short, IMVHO opinion I think as a civilization we are not willing to pay the kind of cost which the Chinese - ramrodded by the CPC - has been willing to and is paying for the "progress" they have achieved.

What that of course means, again IMVHO, we'll probably become rich a decade or a decade and a half later than what we could have achieved if we had followed the China model.

In such circumstances I really think its pointless to make comments like for e.g.: Oh China has already won the race and we've lost.

I would humbly like to point out we were never in the race together and we are following two different paths which are in sync with our civilizational ethos.

I also think it's pointless to blame the CON DIE-Nasty and the "baboons" who run our civil service for China racing ahead. Even Modi ji or Gadkari ji and other assorted "nationalists" would be hard pressed, IMVHO, in turing India into another China. Because to do that they would have to change our civilizational ethos. I think that would be a tall order even for them, despite their great poweresses.

Jai Ho, Jai Hu & Jai Mao

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Feb 2012 13:29

Gymnastics is a prime example of sports and the quest for medals leading to abuse of underage bodies. in no other sports can catching 4 yr old kids and beating the crap out of them lead to olympic 'glory'.....though I am sure PRC is experimenting with young bodies in every sport to see if a early start can eke out some more medals.

this problem can be fixed perhaps by putting minimum age limit on all international sporting contests of 18 years. else it becomes a circus show of performing animals, bent and broken since toddler age to perform to the oohs and ahhs of the crowd.

amit · Post by **amit** » 13 Feb 2012 13:34

Singha wrote:Gymnastics is a prime example of sports and the quest for medals leading to abuse of underage bodies. in no other sports can catching 4 yr old kids and beating the crap out of them lead to olympic 'glory'.....though I am sure PRC is experimenting with young bodies in every sport to see if a early start can eke out some more medals.

this problem can be fixed perhaps by putting minimum age limit on all international sporting contests of 18 years. else it becomes a circus show of performing animals, bent and broken since toddler age to perform to the oohs and ahhs of the crowd.

Getting OT here but its pertinent to point out Romania was the undisputed champion in women's gymnastics when Nicolae Ceausescu was bossman. The moment he was ousted and Romanians tasted freedom the "quality" of their women's gymnasts fell. Remember Nadia Commenscu and the sob story she later revealed?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Feb 2012 14:35

I dont know her details but her coaches the karolyi couple once they defected to US did produce some good talent who won olympic medals like mary lou retton...so I doubt the 'efficient' and 'hardworking' techniques one sees applied to these toddlers were in use as the US does have some laws and protection around and parents are not so desperate!
leaving aside the karolyi's the US is a world level power in mens and womens gymnastics surely without these 'methods' in use here...even a sdre indian guy won a medal in the floor exercises in last asiad on dal and sattu roti onree

if we assume for every 100 on this assembly line of toddler elite, 1 will go on and bring glory in big events, what happens to the rest 99. are they shunted out once they reach a certain age and the assembly line pared down to the hyper-elite of say 10. I wonder what their parents will think of years being fed to the training regime and then just kicked out saying 'you are not good enough to bring home a medal, so go home now'

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Feb 2012 15:36

amit wrote:In such circumstances I really think its pointless to make comments like for e.g.: Oh China has already won the race and we've lost.

I would humbly like to point out we were never in the race together and we are following two different paths which are in sync with our civilizational ethos.

Point conceded.

However, it is my equally humble contention that it is the lack of the value for human life among the chinis, jihardons etc that makes them formidable foes too. We cannot fight them way they fight us because the costs are asymmetrical. We are hobbled by the fact that we care about human life and freedom. Like it or not, truth is like that.

It is also why telling 'em cheenis what they wanna hear - that they won some race against us SDREs - costs us nothing, keeps 'em complacent and keeps the peace a tad longer while we are still growing. Maybe this point is lost on you sir, humbly or otherwise.

I also think it's pointless to blame the CON DIE-Nasty and the "baboons" who run our civil service for China racing ahead. Even Modi ji or Gadkari ji and other assorted "nationalists" would be hard pressed, IMVHO, in turing India into another China. Because to do that they would have to change our civilizational ethos. I think that would be a tall order even for them, despite their great poweresses.

Complete strawman argument. Expected logic and reason better from you, Amit ji.

That Mr Modi has faced attacks from the UPA in all ways - political, electoral, legal, extra-legal (e.g. the UC Bannerjee report) is no secret. That governments have sometimes played politics with external affairs is also no big secret. So if someone rhetorizes that another instance of that has happened here, no big deal. IMO, of course. To make it a matter of Mr Modi's 'prowesses' wanting to change something as fundamental as India's civilizational ethos (which, btw, these worthies well appreciate and revere having succeeded in politics from humble origins), nay turning India into another China itself, is a rather considerable logical and rhetorical leap that I would normally put beyond your seemingly sane self. Only. Oh, IMVVHO, JMTPs and other standard disclaimers etc follow, of course.

Jai Ho, Jai Hu & Jai Mao

Cho chweet. Same to you, amit ji!!!

Jai Ho, Jai Hu & Jai Mao

amit · Post by **amit** » 13 Feb 2012 17:12

Hari Seldon wrote:However, it is my equally humble contention that it is the lack of the value for human life among the chinis, jihardons etc that makes them formidable foes too. We cannot fight them way they fight us because the costs are asymmetrical. We are hobbled by the fact that we care about human life and freedom. Like it or not, truth is like that.

It is also why telling 'em cheenis what they wanna hear - that they won some race against us SDREs - costs us nothing, keeps 'em complacent and keeps the peace a tad longer while we are still growing. Maybe this point is lost on you sir, humbly or otherwise.

Hari ji,

I have no problem if you frame the point thus. However, I'm sure you'd excuse me, if I read your original point rather differently, particularly the point you made:

Its no secret there's no India-China economic race anymore. PRC won it long ago

But anyway choro, I think we're on the same page here, so why worry?

Complete strawman argument. Expected logic and reason better from you, Amit ji.

Now, now Hari ji no need to get upset when the other shoe drops.

When you did not see anything strawman about converting a statement from a middle ranking Foreign Ministry Babu (err, sorri that should be Baboon, after all the Baboon's name is: (Gautam) Bambwale with 2 "Os" in between "b" and "w" written with invisible ink!) calling for postponement of the visit as a tit for tat into some kind of grand CON-spiracy against Modi ji, aren't you being a bit harsh on poor ole me?

I mean if a postponement of a visit of a delegation from Zhejiang can derail Gujarat's "economic miracle" then... Incidentally AFAIK those folks were looking to set up a power plant in Gujarat, among other things. And as per Modi ji Gujarat is already power "surplus"!

So if someone rhetorizes that another instance of that has happened here, no big deal.

I wonder? Doesn't rhetoric on Indian politics and machinations of the UPA against Modi ji on the PRC Economy - New Reflections qualify as a strawman designed to take the thread in an OT direction? Maybe not, it's just that the deep significance of this discussion on UPA machinations against Modi ji and the fact that all our IAS wallas are actually baboons on this thread (there's a China thread on the strat fora if you recall) is going way over my head.

It's quite possible I fail to see the intellectual significance of it and so, if required, I'll do the mandatory Mea Culpa!

Cho chweet.

Yes isn't it?

Almost sounds like a bhajan, designed to stop quaking dhotis from coming off. We can even hum it in our spare time or when we go to dump our Inner Pakistaniat in the mornings. Try it almost as effective as isabgool.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 13 Feb 2012 18:39

>>I also think it's pointless to blame the CON DIE-Nasty and the "baboons" who run our civil service for China racing ahead. Even Modi ji or Gadkari ji and other assorted "nationalists" would be hard pressed, IMVHO, in turing India into another China. Because to do that they would have to change our civilizational ethos. I think that would be a tall order even for them, despite their great poweresses.

Who wants India to be another China ? Not me . The amount of mess the Chinese , have made in their country nearly rivals by the mess DIE-nasty made in India .

But without the DIE-nasty parivar inc. India would have been a much happier , better India ..It would not have been a China .

When you did not see anything strawman about converting a statement from a middle ranking Foreign Ministry Babu (err, sorri that should be Baboon, after all the Baboon's name is: (Gautam) Bambwale with 2 "Os" in between "b" and "w" written with invisible ink!) calling for postponement of the visit as a tit for tat into some kind of grand CON-spiracy against Modi ji, aren't you being a bit harsh on poor ole me?

I mean if a postponement of a visit of a delegation from Zhejiang can derail Gujarat's "economic miracle" then... Incidentally AFAIK those folks were looking to set up a power plant in Gujarat, among other things. And as per Modi ji Gujarat is already power "surplus"!

Not a grand conspiracy saar. Neither does anyone allege that it ll cause a slowdown in Gujarat . It ll barely cause a trifle inconvenience , if at all anything.

But would disallowing the delegate solve any problems , or help India in any manner ? Surely not .Likewise allowing the delegate would not have cause a national security emergency . Your argument would have had some substance if allowing the delegate would destroy India , and disallowing them was the only way to save it . So its only a straw man argument .

Why did I post the link here ? Because it had something to do with the PRC economy .

Why the anti-baboon overtone ?

Even though this particular action would be irrelevant even in the short term , it shows that the gov't has factors other than business in mind while doing business. And in other instances, that has created problems . serious ones .

That this was done to give a 'tough' message to China is a non argument . Because the timings of this action coincide with our foreign minister visiting China and indulging in the most blatant and shameless form of dhoti shivering and browning in modern History . The guy disowned the tibetans . When we should be poking and prodding the CPC at any given opportunity , we are shivering and giving them trade concessions .... running trade deficits with them etc.

If there was a right time to engage the provincial overlords of China , it is now . Anti china sentiment is growing in HKAR . It can grow elsewhere too . Who knows , in Zhejiang also ? Bottomline - we should talk tough with the central CPC , keep doing business with them in a manner that is profitable to India , and engage with a friendly dialogue with their provincial governments . That would be of immediate value too .Because the central cpc does not micromanage daily business . The Indian businessmen would have been freed much earlier , if someone had a cordial relationship with zhejiang .

By constantly persisting with your argument on this one , you have ensured that the story gets highlighted to even the casual visitor of this dhaaga . I thank you for that .

amit · Post by **amit** » 13 Feb 2012 19:12

^^^^^

Ok my bad. Didn't realize you wanted to slip one in with the hope that nobody would notice. Actually I don't care a damn if you give gaalis to the Congress, no skin off my teeth. What I did find objectionable is you calling an unknown IAS officer who was just probably just doing his job with best intentions a Baboon. I hope you have the decency to realize why l found that objectionable.

Anyway pointless to argue.

Abhijeet · Post by **Abhijeet** » 14 Feb 2012 01:20

I strongly disagree with the claim that it's the Indian ethos, respect for human dignity etc that has prevented China-like manufacturing from taking place here. This might make us feel better about the situation, but it's a misreading of the facts.

India has lost the manufacturing race (so far) because it has stupid labor laws and completely inadequate infrastructure. Nothing more or less.

All the fancy talk about human rights, dignity etc is well and good on BR, but it doesn't address the hundreds of millions of Indians who still work in the unorganized sector, in far worse conditions than any which Foxconn could have cooked up. If anything, the scrutiny that goes with being a global-scale company ensures that the Foxconn workers are treated far better than most others in any developing country.

If Indians were really so touchy-feely about human rights and dignity, there wouldn't be so many industries where worker protections are non-existent. We've all seen how construction workers in Indian cities live -- in shanties around the construction zone, with no sanitation or any other facilities. Where is the Indian outrage over those conditions, as there should be if we were really so civilizationally enlightened?

Indians should welcome a move into large scale organized employment, even in Foxconn-like low-skill conditions, because such employment has -- over a period of time -- always resulted in better worker protection and rights than the primitive employment structures within which most Indians work.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 14 Feb 2012 01:44

I don't understand this need to self flagellate in this thread.

This entire website is filled with threads that excoriate India. This tread is to reflect on the reality of Panda wonderland and the life of the average Chinese. Some insights on the Chinese please....

Abhijeet · Post by **Abhijeet** » 14 Feb 2012 01:52

One man's self flagellation is another man's attempt to explain the facts as they are.

I don't understand the need to gloat in this thread about our supposedly more evolved civilization either. Understanding the true reasons for why things are the way they are is so much more important than feeling better about ourselves, isn't it?

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 14 Feb 2012 01:58

So no insights on the Chinese I guess....

Figures.

BijuShet · Post by **BijuShet** » 14 Feb 2012 02:32

Singha wrote:...

if we assume for every 100 on this assembly line of toddler elite, 1 will go on and bring glory in big events, what happens to the rest 99. are they shunted out once they reach a certain age and the assembly line pared down to the hyper-elite of say 10. I wonder what their parents will think of years being fed to the training regime and then just kicked out saying 'you are not good enough to bring home a medal, so go home now'

Former Chinese Gymnastics Champion Now Homeless Beggar

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 14 Feb 2012 05:06

Theo_Fidel wrote:So no insights on the Chinese I guess....

Figures.

Theo-saar, everyone serves a purpose - think of the agitation at lunch-break amongst the drones. I mean, an SDRE doing a much better job than them is something out of the worst IT-vity nightmares

Due to various aspects of this thread, am sure some of them sport bumps on their heads from waking up and banging their head on the Foxconn employee's bunk above....

Singha wrote: else it becomes a circus show of performing animals, bent and broken since toddler age to perform to the oohs and ahhs of the crowd.

"else it becomes"? Olympics is already a circus show - individual sports are nothing but PT Barnum's Freak Sideshow format (watch large man lift weights, colored gent run fast, jump high et al) done with corporate sponsorship.

I am eternally thankful to The Kalmadi (and his band of merry looters), that they left a severe distaste amongst Indians for hosting such circuses in the name of national pride.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 Feb 2012 08:00

yes we are watching the aftereffects in greece and no doubt london will be saddled with a huge bill. last I heard montreal 1976 was still paying loans off.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 Feb 2012 08:11

>but it doesn't address the hundreds of millions of Indians who still work in the unorganized sector

there are hundreds of millions of chinese who work in worse or similar conditions in their unorganized or SME sector. like for example the people who recycle e-waste for metals without much protection. sometimes very rarely pictorial glimpses emerge usually from people campaigning against pollution....but mostly its peace, progress and development onree with soothing white painted industrial estates with broad tree lined avenues and low floor buses full of happy organized sector workers

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 14 Feb 2012 08:43

Theo_Fidel wrote:I don't understand this need to self flagellate in this thread.

This entire website is filled with threads that excoriate India. This tread is to reflect on the reality of Panda wonderland and the life of the average Chinese. Some insights on the Chinese please....

not self flagellating saar ... My posts have innuendos about splitting China. I am unimpressed by the 'PRC Economic miracle' . I don't want India to be another China .

wong · Post by **wong** » 14 Feb 2012 08:58

wrdos wrote:
Theo_Fidel wrote:The question is purely on rich/wealth. No needed to make it more complicated than that. No qualifiers necessary. We are 5 years behind.
This year is 2012, so India is now China at 2007? Excellent!

- So the India GDP is 3.3 trillion US$ now?
- So India's Foreign-exchange reserves is now >1.5trillion and will doubled within 3 years?
- So 4 years ago, India had finished her first manned space flight?
- So next year India will held an Olympic, instead of London?
- So 2 years from now, India's GDP would equal to Japan's GDP at market value, despite the yen would appreciate nearly 30%?
- So Indian people will buy more cars than America within 2 years from now?
- So India will open new expressways >8000km, i.e. equals to Japan's total expressway network, in this year alone?
- So India's expressway network will be longer than the American inter-state within 4 years from now?
- So thousands km of HSR are under construction now, within 2 years, India's HSR network will be longer than all the other countries' combined?

BTW, I have been on the BR 7 or 8 years. I am tired of hearing expressions like "India WILL", but let's wait 3 or 4 more years to observe.

The "India WILL" can easily be explained by behavioral finance. The "make no mistake India will" is no different than a gambler who thinks their luck will change and their turn at winning is next. There's a reason casinos make the slot machines payoff extra loud with flashing lights and drop each coin one at a time. China is their slot machine and they are positive their turn is next (even if there is absolutely no ratioinal basis for it other than just a "belief". The South Koreans themselves say China is exactly 20 years behind them. The South Korean and Chinese growth curves overlay each other almost perfectly. Nobody in China is saying India is exactly 5 or even 10 years behinds them. The only people saying it are Indians on this forum.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 14 Feb 2012 09:04

>>The South Koreans themselves say China is exactly 20 years behind them. The South Korean and Chinese growth curves overlay each other almost perfectly.

The south Koleans are making big money from you guys .They ll say anything. We don't care what anyone from China says about us. Because what you usually say deals with splitting India into pieces .

We don't want a growth curve similar to yours . For all I know , your curve might well be the ascending phase of an inverted parabola .

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 14 Feb 2012 09:10

I think wong needs a break from BR. He has no value to add except indulge in shlong contests.

Perhaps heech could take them to a retraining camp; they need a Great Leap Forward or a Cultural Revolution.

Hopefully mods can do the needful.
=========================================
Incidentally, CPC is not behaving as if all is normal. They did not increase liquidity as many anticipated a few weeks ago, probably to keep the real estate priced down.

I also tried to repair an iPhone 3G this weekend. Some of the screws (especially the ones on the volume controller on the side) are really tiny. I perhaps did not have the best tools around, but assembling electronics is not easy on your hands and eyes (I am yet to turn 40). I have some new found respect on all the workers who toil to manufacture them.
========================================

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 14 Feb 2012 09:16

VikramS wrote:I think wong needs a break from BR. He has no value to add. Hopefully mods can do the needful.

Perhaps heech could take them to a retraining camp.

agree with that part. Heechs posts are quite good . The guy is broad minded .

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 14 Feb 2012 10:30

What the heck is this?

Chinese Authorities Are Removing iPads From Store Shelves

Apple bought the rights from a Chinese company called Proview to use the word "iPad," but Proview claims that their agreement didn't include the rights to do so in China. The courts agreed and now Chinese officials are enforcing it.

What did those guys think? Apple bought the "word" iPad to sell them in USA?

Abhijeet · Post by **Abhijeet** » 14 Feb 2012 14:46

Singha wrote:there are hundreds of millions of chinese who work in worse or similar conditions in their unorganized or SME sector. like for example the people who recycle e-waste for metals without much protection. sometimes very rarely pictorial glimpses emerge usually from people campaigning against pollution....but mostly its peace, progress and development onree with soothing white painted industrial estates with broad tree lined avenues and low floor buses full of happy organized sector workers

Indeed. It would be quite stupid to think that all Chinese employees work in Foxconn-like conditions. But those who do are far better off than those who are still stuck in the unorganized sector.

Turning up our noses at Foxconn ignores the ground reality that most Indians would be happy to work there because it would be a massive step up from where they currently are. It's not because of our great respect for human rights that we don't have those manufacturing units here, and we are fooling ourselves when we claim that it is.

amit · Post by **amit** » 14 Feb 2012 15:10

Abhijeet wrote:Turning up our noses at Foxconn ignores the ground reality that most Indians would be happy to work there because it would be a massive step up from where they currently are. It's not because of our great respect for human rights that we don't have those manufacturing units here, and we are fooling ourselves when we claim that it is.

Abhijeet,

I wanted to give a more detailed response to your previous post as you bring up some valid points. However, I'm a bit pressed for time today, will try to answer later.

However, this part in your last post begs two questions:

1) It's true that Foxconn, at least it's Apple plant, is one of the best employers in China, even our Chinese friends admit as much. A similar factory in India would also be a source of pride and in the forefront of our organised sector - far removed to the unorganised sector you talk about. However, IMO we will never have a similar factory despite every thing else being equal? Why? Set aside for a moment our "restrictive labor laws" (I'd like take up this point in a later post). Assuming all things were equal - in terms of supply chain itaydi - do you think the Foxconn model of having armed guards, workers committing suicide by jumping off the roof of the factory and the management putting up nets to prevent this from recurring, child labor (you've read the reports, seen the pictures), cameras to monitor whether workers are taking time off and pre-determined toilet breaks would work in India? I don't think so.

And the reason why it would not work in India is not just because of unionised labor etc. There would be other factors involved. If you think about them then you'd understand what I mean by civilizational ethos. Do note when I said there's a fundamental difference in civlizational ethos between India and China, I was not suggesting it in any derogatory sense vis a vis China; I am stating facts as I see them. IMO acceptance of authoritarian rule is ingrained in China and the CPC has used that to its advantage. India is the polar opposite - one of the reasons why, again IMO, folks like Charu Mazumdar were failures despite capturing popular imagination while Mao was a success.

2) Foxconn has got an outfit in Chennai. It has unions with whom the management regularly consult. It pays roughly around the same as the Foxconn China subsidiary if you use PPP deflator. And yet according to all anecdotal accounts, the productivity in the Foxconn Chennai factory is comparable to what they have across the globe.

I'd like you to ponder these two points and, time permitting, give you thoughts.

TIA

amit · Post by **amit** » 14 Feb 2012 15:20

Marten wrote:Amit, according to wrdos, foxconn was not considered amongst the best employers in China.

I know Marten but he said that as part of a downhill skiing exercise.

If you recall zlin and others were singing hosannas in praise of Foxconn earlier before the rather inconvenient facts were dug up by folks like you and Theo.

Incidentally, just in passing, I think this is why this thread is so vitally important and should not lose its focus with green on green firefights. The thread goads us to sift facts from fiction about China.

I still maintain that there's a lot to learn from the Chinese experience but let's not learn the wrong lessons.

JMT

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 14 Feb 2012 17:16

Indeed. It would be quite stupid to think that all Chinese employees work in Foxconn-like conditions. But those who do are far better off than those who are still stuck in the unorganized sector.

Turning up our noses at Foxconn ignores the ground reality that most Indians would be happy to work there because it would be a massive step up from where they currently are. It's not because of our great respect for human rights that we don't have those manufacturing units here, and we are fooling ourselves when we claim that it is.

You are talking like there is a complete absence of organized sector in India . Most of India's manufacturing is organized sector. And work conditions are pretty decent . Our manufacturing output will increase by 6 folds in this decade . And 100 million people will enter the organized manufacturing sector . So its not that we are not entering manufacturing. When it reaches a size comparable to China , Indian manufacturing will be far more efficient .

amit · Post by **amit** » 14 Feb 2012 18:25

gakakkad wrote:So its not that we are not entering manufacturing. When it reaches a size comparable to China , Indian manufacturing will be far more efficient .

You're spot on. Indian manufacturing is already a far more efficient user of capital than Chinese manufacturing. I have a post a couple of pages back which compared capital use with GDP growth. Indian manufacturng has been more efficient user of capital since the turn of the millenium.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 14 Feb 2012 20:21

And energy. China uses about 10 times as much coal for instance to output 3 times as much GDP. And the ratio continues to decline.
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Roubini's latest.
5% of 9% growth is investment boom. Panda central government is the last resort now. Probably can fund the boom for 2-3 more years. Then all strings will be cut.