PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby JE Menon » 16 Mar 2013 16:25

Krishnan pls note what suraj said above regarding staying on topic.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Lilo » 16 Mar 2013 19:09



If only Chinese were willing to trade with us in INR instead of insisting on Dollah, lot of these surplus capital equipment would have found a large and ever expanding import market in India , considering that the US and European markets are contracting .

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 16 Mar 2013 19:54

What is happening in CHINA was bound to happen if a country with 1b+ population treads the path of wanton contract manufacturing driven model which created less number of jobs and that too low paying resulting in a very low local consumption and when the overseas buyser have dried up they are pilling up the inventory because the world's second-largest economy cannot afford to buy them! It is scary as to where CHINA go from here. A lot of these companies will go bust resulting in furthre loss of jobs and social unrest.. That is why I can see the despire in the CHINESE job holders and they are ready to keep their jobs at any cost if it requires opening up their super duper source code of their routers and switches to working under deep holdes in Metro work in India to working on construction projects in India...So much for putting factories on all directions....

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Christopher Sidor » 17 Mar 2013 13:03

Lilo wrote:


If only Chinese were willing to trade with us in INR instead of insisting on Dollah, lot of these surplus capital equipment would have found a large and ever expanding import market in India , considering that the US and European markets are contracting .

Why should we be replacing one source of capital inflows, i.e. US+UK+Euro+Dubai+Mauritius with another source, considering the state of our relations with PRC ?
We have achieved two true independence in two aspects
1) Political in 1947
2) Food after the Green revolution of 1970s.

What we should now be targeting is
1) Energy independence where we shift to renewable and thorium powered nuclear reactors.
2) Financial independence where all the money required by Indian firms and consumers is generated in India and consumed in India, without having to resort to capital inflows.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Lilo » 17 Mar 2013 22:13

CS ji,
My proposition had nothing to do about dependence or independence from China

India needs a LOT of infrastructure (Maunmohan ji has pegged it at 1 trillion USD requirement in the next 5 years) on Roads, Electricity generation capacity , communication and fiber lines, storage and distribution facilities and what not.

Much of the equipment needed to achieve above is being manufactured in China at the present .
Indian capacity for manufacturing such "capital equipment" is comparatively insufficient or in some cases non existent (as in comm equipment) . Therefore even though we have BHEL and BEML, due to lack of sufficient capacity, we have been importing super critical turbines , earth movers etc from china all along.

Now China happens to be facing a huge glut in its warehouses and over capacity in its factories - so it is a very good time to purchase "capital equipment" from china using our own money . As China currently has a big surplus in their trade with us, we cannot pay them back in Renmibi , therefore only INR is left as an option (assuming that dollah option is somehow off the table).
Yes , in effect if such a scenario comes to pass , China's investing in INR is equivalent to investing in GOI bonds.
But that will be beneficial for them too because we are helping them tide over their current glut till they manage to restructure and rationalize their factory capacity (which iam sure they will manage to do in time) . When the cycle gets back to an upturn - China anyway has the option to retain its built up INR reserves or pay it back to us when we again start exporting cheaper grades of Iron ore , Food stuffs , Pharma (or whatever we are exporting to them at that time).

Why all this trouble?
its because trade in dollah is getting costly for India and risky for China (it has been this way for a while now) . And such gestures (if they come to pass - a big IF) will be good CBMs in our economic relationship.

Lets see what happens to dollah denominated trade in the meantime .

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Christopher Sidor » 18 Mar 2013 18:19

^^^^
We need these inflows because our government sucks in such massive amounts of money for its so called non-planned expenditure that nothing is left for rest of the economy. In many cases it is the case of earning 75 paise and spending 100 paise and that too is such an inefficient way that only some 20% of the benefits reach the intended targets. If our government were to run a sensible house and not spend what it does not earn then rest of the money would be available to the Indian economy for its infrastructure needs.

Add to this is the misguided currency policy of our government, past and present. They have allowed our currency to depreciate and loose its value. In such a condition, an earning person or families will turn to assets which will hedge against this fall in currency hence the wild speculation in real estate and gold. Think about it, Europeans have a per-capita higher than India, more than 10 times. But they do not hoard gold. For the simple reason, that their currencies have not depreciated so much as much as Indian currency has. In 1990s it used to take some 11 Rs to fill up one liter of petrol. More than 20 years the same thing takes some 70 Rs. A rise of 7 times. Faced with such a circumstances people will loose all faith in the currency. They will simply hoard something which will retain its value. Unfortunately that happens to be gold.

So we are taking about inflows and preventing another 1991-balance-of-payment-crisis from happening, because once again we have not learnt the real lessons of 1989-91.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Hari Seldon » 19 Mar 2013 05:42

When first I heard rumors about "gene doping" by cheeni athletes, I thought twas too far-fetched. You could always detect regular doping but if your genes themselves were doped i.e. artificially enhanced onlee??

Now it seems twas not all smoke no fire...

CHINA IS ENGINEERING GENIUS BABIES

Kinda cheeky in style but worthwhile read perhaps...



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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Singha » 22 Mar 2013 11:00

China it seems has serious pollution problems if its as bad as in the imagery
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/22/world ... ml?hp&_r=0

back in late 90s parts of delhi used to be somewhat like this with the cold air holding pollutants close to the ground but the move to cleaner fuels rapidly solved that problem, plus relocating 1000s of small factories out into western UP.

Mr. Yue and others say that because of constant haggling by the oil companies, the government for years delayed issuing upgraded China IV diesel standards that are on par with European standards. On Feb. 6, after the uproar over record-breaking air pollution, the State Council, China’s cabinet, smashed the gridlock by putting out guidelines that called for a nationwide adoption of the new China IV diesel standards by the end of 2014.


india has moved to euro IV in 13 biggest metro areas in 2010 and euro III in entire country.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 22 Mar 2013 13:51

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 122058.cms

Dealer cheating causes havoc at Volvo's China unit

Paging CHOLA ... see how reliable the MNC sales figures are ? I was suspecting the the govt was buying up all the cars but this simple trick did not come to my mind? Hell what if the deadlers are fakign the sales.....

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Sri » 22 Mar 2013 17:30

Das Ji,

No great shakes. It doesn't hurt the bottom line as car sales revenue is based on Ship date and not on indent from dealerships. Cars are shipped by manufacturer only after getting money in advance. Dealers are financed by Channel financing companies who too get volume incentives from manufacturers. Later over booked sales are adjusted in next quarter / month / financial year. :) This is a worldwide practice generally encouraged by Manufacturer himself if he sits on large inventory. This is true for consumer electronics and home appliances too. Bottom line is Manufacturer wants to shift excess inventory to dealer. Dealer wants to make the most of extremely good terms and incentives.

The only negative is customer service and maintenance which is screwed up because it is impossible to plan spare part and service requirements.

We Indians read Chinese economy the other way round but that's just me saying. Also I think it will not be wise to consider the above report as something unique to Chinese economy.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Abhijeet » 22 Mar 2013 19:26

These attempts to constantly downplay the Chinese economy are silly and misguided. China has a huge market for many types of goods, deal with it. Yes there is over-investment, misallocation of capital and obfuscated stats, but using that to discredit all the data points that say otherwise decreases the signal to noise ratio here and doesn't advance our understanding of their economy.

I also think the whole pollution thing is overblown. Pollution can be, and has been, taken care of in every country that has industrialized rapidly. The "black" Thames in 1800s London, the Chonggyecheon river in Seoul that is now a beautiful walkway etc. At a certain per capita income level, all sins are forgiven -- the question is, can you get there, and how long does it take?

If anything, the fact that India has any city at all that had comparable smog (say Delhi in the 1990s) indicates that we are getting a bad bargain -- we are polluting at comparable levels without seeing commensurate GDP growth: less growth per unit of pollution.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 22 Mar 2013 21:00

http://news.in.msn.com/gallery/pollution-in-china-pics

For all CHINESE and factory lovers here......

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 22 Mar 2013 21:06

Now this becomes even more interesting. What the MNC are reporting is items shipped and not retailed. Surely this means that a large number of those shipped never retails and that is in line with CHINESE household consumption figures. The balance is written off as bad loans from the govt controlled banks.

Sure China is large market and that is easy to deal with but 10x of India is a aboslute fake and cannot be supported by GDP, GNP and public consumption PPP, electricity generation etc etc. Just like CHINESE super duper widgets and war machines are sold only in Pakistan, Venezuella, Niger.... their stats are also like that, believed only in such countries.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 23 Mar 2013 18:06

When a country uses propaganda to built a image then it is expected that its critics will also resort to same tactics. China also gets a fair share of negetive propaganda and they have to deal with it.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 25 Mar 2013 14:03

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 186129.cms

How the CHINESE govt is racking in the mullah via land sale of its poor peasants.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Sri » 26 Mar 2013 07:30

subhamoy.das wrote:When a country uses propaganda to built a image then it is expected that its critics will also resort to same tactics. China also gets a fair share of negetive propaganda and they have to deal with it.

Das ji,

I know exactly from where you are coming from. But Sir we are an Indian forum. Surely our priority must be to have informed discussion amongst brfites. Ack Ack fire on drones derails discussion.

Anyways would love to read discussionon Chinese economic model here on BR. For that to happen thread has to attract bade bhai log.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Vipul » 26 Mar 2013 07:41


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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Prem » 27 Mar 2013 00:11

http://www.tuaw.com/2013/03/26/china-ca ... pty-and-s/

China calls Apple's response to warranty complaints 'empty and self-praising'

Apple's products are overwhelmingly popular in the land where most of the devices are created -- China. But recent moves by the ruling Chinese Communist Party could spell trouble for Apple and other Western firms that currently command the smartphone market. The latest such move came yesterday when the government-controlled People's Daily newspaper ran a front-page article accusing the company of turning down journalists' requests for interviews and providing an "empty and self-praising" reply to a critical report broadcast by state-run China Central Television.According to an article in today's Wall Street Journal, this latest in a series of attacks suggests that the Chinese government is promoting the growth of home-grown smartphone companies like Lenovo, Huawei and ZTE, a move that could spell trouble for Apple. The company was recently accused by China Central Television of providing customer-service policies for Chinese customers that were different from those in other countries.Apple responded to the accusation on its website on Saturday, noting that "Apple's Chinese warranty is more or less the same as in the US and all over the world." The People's Daily article quoted a student who was upset with Apple's "double standards," saying that the company repairs broken phones in China but gives customers in other countries new replacement phones instead.
Apple is not the only smartphone powerhouse being singled out by the Chinese government. Earlier this month, a government research institute published a report saying that the country relied too much on the Android smartphone operating system and accused Google of using its dominance in the smartphone market to discriminate against Chinese competition.The Verge reports that the Chinese government has approached Canonical for a custom version of Ubuntu to act as a national OS. The country is also pursuing standards that, if adopted, would force smartphone manufacturers to help the government identify users and track their use of apps.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 27 Mar 2013 09:07

China: China has made huge strides in world economy in past few decades but it has suffered on the social front. With a suicide rate of 22.23 per 100,000 people per year, the mortality in China due to suicides is one of the highest in the world. The country's disease control centre mentions that suicide is the highest among the youngsters in the age group between 15 and 34. According to the Chinese media reports, extreme academic pressure and ...

http://in.news.yahoo.com/photos/countri ... 30879.html

So much for land of economic prosperity via contract manufacturing.
For a reference India's suicide rate is at 10, half of that of China.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ashi » 27 Mar 2013 13:11

On the Reliability of Chinese Output Figures

We found that reported Chinese output data are systematically related to alternative indicators of Chinese economic activity. These include alternative indicator indexes of Chinese activity composed of variables that are less susceptible to official manipulation, as well as externally reported trade volume measures. Importantly, these models suggest that Chinese growth has been in the ballpark of what official data have reported. We find no evidence that recently reported Chinese GDP figures are less reliable than usual.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby rohitvats » 27 Mar 2013 14:15

subhamoy.das wrote:http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/china-authorities-got-5-trillion-from-land-economist/articleshow/19186129.cms

How the CHINESE govt is racking in the mullah via land sale of its poor peasants.


From the above link:

By law, officials may provide compensation worth up to 30 times the value of the land's output, but in practice they have skimped on payments or foregone them altogether -- then sold the land to developers at much higher rates.


Herein lies the example of Communist Party profiteering from land acquisition at the expense of the landlord and local people.

By pegging the acquisition cost to land produce it is ensuring that the payout by the government is drastically lower than the price at which it is sold to the builders. The price needs to be governed by the dynamics of demand-supply of land and not produce. As it is, the sale price of land for real estate purpose does not depend on the fertility of the land or otherwise.

So, a party supposedly in place to look after the interest of common man is in fact cheating the same person and getting fat on the their blood money.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby amit » 27 Mar 2013 15:24

^^^^

Rohit,

CCP was never meant to be for the "common man". No Communist party ever was, including those in India

However, IMO the land sales demonstrate another "short-term" get rich quick policy followed by the CCP.

That's because despite China being a big country, land is a finite commodity and with 1.3 billion people, there's limits to how much land even the CCP mandarins can swindle from farmers and other poor people. In short land for sale is running out and even the market for selling this land does not look as rosy as before due to the looming real estate bubble which - for now - has been kept at bay by government intervention.

As a result, local officials, who's rise in the party heirachy depends on a large extent on how much money they can raise (remember the CCP gets a cut from every deal), are getting desperate as the land bank is running out. So they have resorted to taxation on companies. There was a report which, I think was posted earlier, of how steel mills are being asked to pay, sometime as much as two-years of advance tax by prefecture governors. And this at a time when the steel sector is reeling from over capacity. I'm sure it's same case for other industries, save to those under the patronage of the "princelings".

In short, land sales is an interesting metric to watch in the Middle Kingdom.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby svinayak » 28 Mar 2013 00:41

Land sales in PRC is to create real estate bubble and to create a private market for land even though the CCP can confiscate at any time.
This is the false image they can create and make money out of it.

Watch for how new private markets are created out of nothing and without past history.
This is another way to keep the money inside the economy.

Since one house can be owned lot of new PRC citizens are coming over to California and investing in REIT

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Prem » 28 Mar 2013 01:47

Acharya wrote:Since one house can be owned lot of new PRC citizens are coming over to California and investing in REIT


True, a Fresh Chinaman just bought a 2006 Sq feet tear down house for 1.66 M. It was so bad that One could not walk through the house because of the bad odor from the walls and floor. May be he felt at home. Per broker, the buyer made one call to Hong Kong and deal was closed in 2 days. No Loan Woan ka Lafra like for locals here.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Prem » 28 Mar 2013 02:05

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57576 ... ple-again/
Communist Chinese media mouthpiece bashes Apple again
Is Apple turning into one of China's most hated companies? That seems to be the intent of a state-orchestrated media campaign.


he financial magazine Caijing followed up on the People's Daily piece with its query: Playing on the title of the People's Daily article -- "Smash Apple's 'Incomparable' Arrogance" -- Caijing wrote on its account early Wednesday morning: "As a consumer, which arrogant company or companies do you want to smash? Please give specific names so that we can announce a top 10."Meanwhile, Apple has been on a nonstop tear in China. During the company's first fiscal quarter of 2013, the Greater China region's quarterly rose to $6.83 billion from $4.08 billion a year earlier. Indeed, China, which is Apple's fastest-growing region, accounted for 15 percent of the company's revenue last quarter.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Prem » 28 Mar 2013 02:13

May Allah increase chinese nationalism and xenophobia
Why I'm leaving China

While living in China I was able to co-found several companies, including online video site Tudou.com, the Asian operations of Dutch online game company Spil Games and online fashion site UnitedStyles.com. I also invested in many Chinese Internet and tech startups and helped them to grow.However, about two years ago I realized that my love for China was slowly changing, and I first started thinking about moving to a different place.
Over the years, doing business had become more and more difficult for a non-Chinese. Although many areas have opened up for foreign investment, outsiders are not always able to do business on equal terms with Chinese entrepreneurs.
For example, foreigners need more capital to set up a business. Once you have a business up and running, it will be more closely scrutinized than Chinese firms. There are still tons of business opportunities available in China, but I generally felt less welcome in recent years as a foreign entrepreneur.Much more important than this, however, was the fact that air pollution and food quality were getting worse in my adopted home.I have a family with two young kids, and found myself wondering about the health effects of long-term exposure to hazardous air
. Without children, the pollution may not have been as important a factor to me, but I want my kids to grow up in a healthy environment. I also missed being able to exercise outside, having been forced to run indoors on a treadmill for several years -- even while training for marathons.
Related gallery: China's epic traffic nightmares
I also won't miss China's slow and restricted access to the Internet. Because I traveled internationally at least twice a month, I was able to see how fast connection speeds were in other countries, and it frustrated me every time I came back to China and the Great Firewall. The fact that more and more sites were censored and only accessible with a Virtual Private Network didn't make life easier either. When the government also started to block VPNs, I realized that the situation was not likely to improve anytime soon.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby ashi » 28 Mar 2013 09:05

China Doesn't Belong in the BRICS

But the brute fact is that China has continued growing more than twice as fast as other members of this club. Indeed, in every year since 2001, the gap between China's GDP and that of each of the others has widened. In the decade ahead, the gap is likely to become even more pronounced. Given this divergence, it is more appropriate to consider China separately from Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa, which, if an acronym is called for, can be called: "RIBS."


In 2001, China's GDP was equal to the GDP of all the RIBS combined. In the five years since the global financial crisis, just the increment of growth in China's economy is larger than the entire economies of Russia and India combined. Indeed, in the half decade since the financial crisis, 40 percent of all growth in the global economy has occurred in China.

Last year, the economy of China expanded by $1 trillion; Russia and India grew by $100 billion; Brazil and South Africa shrank.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Suraj » 28 Mar 2013 09:23

In order for China to get approx 16% nominal growth in dollar terms last year with 7-8% real growth, inflation would be far higher than the reported 3-4% , since CNY appreciated by just around 1% over the whole year. More Shanghai statistics at work to goose up the GDP and GDP growth figures...

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby amit » 28 Mar 2013 09:25

Jhujar wrote:http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57576599-37/communist-chinese-media-mouthpiece-bashes-apple-again/
Communist Chinese media mouthpiece bashes Apple again
Is Apple turning into one of China's most hated companies? That seems to be the intent of a state-orchestrated media campaign.


he financial magazine Caijing followed up on the People's Daily piece with its query: Playing on the title of the People's Daily article -- "Smash Apple's 'Incomparable' Arrogance" -- Caijing wrote on its account early Wednesday morning: "As a consumer, which arrogant company or companies do you want to smash? Please give specific names so that we can announce a top 10."Meanwhile, Apple has been on a nonstop tear in China. During the company's first fiscal quarter of 2013, the Greater China region's quarterly rose to $6.83 billion from $4.08 billion a year earlier. Indeed, China, which is Apple's fastest-growing region, accounted for 15 percent of the company's revenue last quarter.


This Apple bashing is quite an interesting development.

Have a look at this chart:

Image

This Verge article has some interesting data points:

Apple and Samsung continue to dominate the world's smartphone market, but emerging Chinese companies are starting to climb the ranks. That's according to IDC's latest report on global smartphone shipments for Q4 2012, released earlier this week. The market research firm's data show that China's leading manufacturers, Huawei and ZTE, enjoyed robust year-on-year growth in 2012, placing them among the world's top five handset makers. Huawei's market share jumped by 89.5 percent over the year — higher than any other smartphone maker — while ZTE's share grew by 48.4 percent.

Huawei is now ranked third among smartphone vendors with 10.8 million units shipped last quarter, marking the first time it has ever cracked the top five. ZTE dropped one spot to number five, on the strength of 9.5 million quarterly shipments. Their rise has displaced both LG and HTC, which have seen their shares gradually decline in recent quarters.

Both, however, still trail Samsung and Apple by a significant margin. Korea-based Samsung led IDC's rankings with 63.7 million Q4 shipments last year, good for a 29 percent market share. Over the year, the company's share has increased by an impressive 76 percent. Apple, meanwhile, saw its share jump by just 29.2 percent over the year, but still came in second last quarter, with 47.8 million shipments and a 21.8 percent market share — nearly 17 percent higher than third-ranked Huawei. Rounding out the top five is fourth-place Sony, which shipped 9.8 million smartphones last quarter.


Huawei and ZTE have shown impressive gains and have overshadowed the likes of HTC and Motorola. However, this is where it gets interesting. If you live in the US, Europe and most of Asia and you went to a shop with the idea of buying a China brand phone you wouldn't find one - but you'd be able to grab a Moto Droid or HTC One with ease.

So what does that say? It shows that an overwhelming percentage of sales for these China brands come from, where else China. But it's gets even more interesting. Despite the strong presence of Huawei, ZTE and even Lenovo (yes they also make pretty good Android smartphones) the number one smartphone brand in China is - Samsung, because of its "cool factor".

Now talking about the "cool factor" what's the biggest war going on in the global smartphone industry? That's which is more "cool" Samsung Galaxy S4 or the iPhone5. And this war has practically decimated the other phone makers like HTC whose latest phone One, is IMO, the best smartphone in the world (you need to see the 441 ppi screen and the aluminium unibody to really understand how gorgeous it is).

Coming back to China, like all nations which gotten rich quickly it's hugely brand conscious. Now if Apple ramps up its presence in China, particularly if it can close its deal with China Mobile, then this "war" comes to China and can have the same effect on the China brands as it had on the other international brands.

So IMO this is the Chinese Governments way of painting Apple as "evil" in an attempt to take its sheen off so that when it eventually lands a deal with China Mobile, there will be - they hope - less craze for the product.

To round off read this: The iPhone drops out of China’s top 5 list

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Don » 28 Mar 2013 10:18

Deleted
Last edited by Suraj on 28 Mar 2013 11:21, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: posted previously

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 29 Mar 2013 19:06

http://news.in.msn.com/international/dr ... n-in-china

Drought in China. With all the super duper infrastructure and loads of cash on which CHINA sits, how come this happened....?

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 29 Mar 2013 19:15

ashi wrote:China Doesn't Belong in the BRICS

But the brute fact is that China has continued growing more than twice as fast as other members of this club. Indeed, in every year since 2001, the gap between China's GDP and that of each of the others has widened. In the decade ahead, the gap is likely to become even more pronounced. Given this divergence, it is more appropriate to consider China separately from Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa, which, if an acronym is called for, can be called: "RIBS."


In 2001, China's GDP was equal to the GDP of all the RIBS combined. In the five years since the global financial crisis, just the increment of growth in China's economy is larger than the entire economies of Russia and India combined. Indeed, in the half decade since the financial crisis, 40 percent of all growth in the global economy has occurred in China.

Last year, the economy of China expanded by $1 trillion; Russia and India grew by $100 billion; Brazil and South Africa shrank.


The reason is simple. It is GDP per capita and public consumption per capita which is driving this blocking. And also the fact that the GDP data and consumer retail data is faked by a good percentage. CHINESE govt may be rich but its citizens are poor as the weatlh in conentrated in a hand full few. For example, the % of middle class, with income of USD 2000/ pm is just 10-15% more in CHINA than that in India. No matter how much u crave to be in US leage, it is simply not going to happen by contract manufacturing and currency manipulation.

And not to mention the Sangahi maths here. CHINA GDP PPP is about 11T and hence a 7% would be 700b increase. Indian GDP is about 4T and a 6% would be 250b increase.

Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 29 Mar 2013 19:26

subhamoy.das wrote:CHINESE govt may be rich but its citizens are poor as the weatlh in conentrated in a hand full few. For example, the % of middle class, with income of USD 2000/ pm is just 10-15% more in CHINA than that in India. No matter how much u crave to be in US leage, it is simply not going to happen by contract manufacturing and currency manipulation.


Yes, many of us have noted this odd little item.
The majority of Chinese earn the same as the BRICS. In fact Brazil, SA & Russia are streets ahead of China in per capita income. We have also the noted odd discordant notes. The foxconn workers in India & China countries earn similar salaries. The average Chinese apartment is 30 to 50 times annual salary. And consumption, meaning paychek, of the economy continues it awe inspiring decline WRT to the GDP.

One is at a loss as on what to make of it....

pankajs
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby pankajs » 29 Mar 2013 23:00

As the Pace of China’s Junk Bond Sales Grows, So Do Worries
HONG KONG — It has an all-too-familiar ring. Investors in search of better interest rates rush to risky, high-yield bonds, raising worries that the market is overheated.

But the concerns — which have already been voiced about the $120 billion of European and American junk bonds issued this year — are now being applied to the fledgling Chinese market.
The junk bond market in China took off this year. Although the deals still account for a small share of the global total, Chinese companies have sold $8 billion of high-yield bonds to overseas investors since January. That’s up from $2.3 billion during the same period a year earlier, according to figures from Dealogic.

“Bond markets are booming because companies have had difficulty getting the level of debt they want out of banks onshore or offshore, and in tapping equity markets,” said Nick Gronow, a senior managing director at FTI Consulting in Hong Kong and an expert in Chinese bankruptcies. “So bonds have really taken up the slack.”
But the Chinese market has its own set of potential problems, and some analysts worry that investors aren’t being properly compensated for the added layer of risks.

For one, the bulk of the high-yield bonds in Asia this year — roughly half — come from Chinese real estate companies. The fear is that the housing market, which has been booming, is a bubble that will eventually burst.

The industry is especially uncertain, given the periodic government intervention. On March 1, Beijing announced new measures to curb excess in the market, including the strict enforcement of a 20 percent capital gains tax on the sale of preowned homes.
Chinese junk bonds also have a unique structure, which could leave investors vulnerable.

Mainland China’s domestic bond market remains largely off limits to foreign buyers. So most investors buy offshore Chinese bonds, which are issued through holding companies headquartered in places like the Cayman Islands.

The bonds tend not to be backed by the actual businesses and underlying assets in mainland China. That means foreign bondholders may have little legal recourse if a company defaults on its debt, especially if local banks or other Chinese creditors make claims.

Bondholders are now facing such difficulties with the bankruptcy of Suntech Power.
If previous Chinese bankruptcies are any indicator, those local banks will take priority in the so-called liquidation process, while foreign bondholders may lose everything. “The greatest difficulty the bondholders have, when things go wrong, is what leverage do they actually have against the company?” Mr. Gronow of FTI Consulting said.

The answer, usually, is not much. Mr. Gronow cites the case of Asia Aluminum, a manufacturer in the small southern city of Zhaoqing that collapsed in 2009 after accumulating more than $1.7 billion in debt.

pankajs
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby pankajs » 31 Mar 2013 12:17

China's urbanisation drive leaves migrant workers out in the cold
(Reuters) - Twenty minutes' drive from Shanghai's glitzy financial district, dozens of migrant workers are preparing to abandon homes in old shipping containers, as one of the more unusual solutions to China's housing shortage faces the wrecking ball.

Cheap but crowded neighbourhoods are being cleared across China as part of a stepped-up "urbanisation" campaign by China's new leaders. The country aims to spend an estimated $6 trillion on infrastructure, including housing, as a projected 400 million people become urban residents over the next decade.

But in an ironic twist, the clearance of so-called "villages within cities" removes cheap housing stock for the very people targeted to fuel that migration, without providing sufficient replacement units. The land is sold by municipalities to developers who generally erect expensive apartment towers.

So how will the expensive apartments help the expected 400 million migrant people who cannot afford to buy them?

pankajs
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby pankajs » 31 Mar 2013 12:22

U.S. firms in China say their No. 1 fear is rising labor costs
U.S. companies operating in China cited rising labor costs as the biggest risk to their business in the country for the first time, an annual survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham China) showed.

Among 325 businesses surveyed, 47 percent said rising labor costs were their biggest risk, just above the number that said slowing economic growth in China was the major concern, the China Business Climate Survey said. More than a quarter of respondents said they had been the victim of data theft.

pankajs
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby pankajs » 31 Mar 2013 12:27

Foxconn plant shows labour eroding China edge
"I don't have high expectations, I know I'm a migrant worker," said Wang, 22, who earned 1,600 yuan ($258) in December, after deductions for lodging. "But I want to make 3,500 yuan a month, net. That's a fair price."
The gap between manufacturing costs in the US and China has almost halved in the past eight years and will fall to 16 per cent this year, according to Hackett Group Inc., a Miami- based consulting company. That's a "tipping point" that will prompt some companies to shift factories back to the US or to destinations nearer consumers, says Hackett, which lists customers including Pfizer Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Boeing Co. on its website.
The average monthly pay for a factory worker in Guangzhou was $352, compared with $111 in Hanoi, $82 in Phnom Penh and $78 in Dhaka, the Japan External Trade Organization's survey said.

krisna
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby krisna » 01 Apr 2013 01:47

Buy India sell China
Another china pessimist about its economy.


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