PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby member_20292 » 01 May 2013 13:06

^^^^ exactly.. R2C accounts please

heech
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 01 May 2013 18:32

Sure, happy to. It's been interesting telling people about our "R2C" plans (I take it this is derived from an Indian term...?).

- Just about every non-Chinese American we've mentioned this to thinks its the best idea ever. But this is partly because many Americans are comfortable with the idea of living overseas, for a semester or a year, in order to "experience" different cultures and learn different languages.

- At the same time, the great majority of first-generation mainland Chinese immigrants in the US we've mentioned this to thinks it's the craziest idea ever. Many first-generation Chinese immigrants aren't even sure they want to teach their kids Chinese; their greatest priority is making sure their kids can integrate well into American society.

I personally think many of these Chinese immigrants are being shorted sighted. I think it's obvious that mainland China will go down the same route that Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan have gone. For many from these states, living in the US or Asia is just a matter of convenience or mood. They might attend college in the US, work in Asia for a years, work back in the US, etc. National borders becomes very flimsy. In my kids lifetime, I think that will become very common for mainland Chinese as well.

Let me talk about the schools as well. Our kids will be going to public elementary schools, not private institutions. Chinese public schools have a mixed reputation. I know (from my own experience) that Chinese education can give you a huge advantage in life; you learn more, you learn great academic habits, and you learn better. I've since gone to top academic institutions in the US, and I think early education in China played a key role in making that possible.

But the Chinese school system is also absolutely horrible in the workload that it imposes on kids. By third grade, parents + kids are obsessed by the question of which junior high school (7th-9th grade) they will be able to test into... why? Because that determines which high school (10th-12th grade) they will test into... why? Because that ultimately determines which university they will test into. By 4th grade, many Chinese kids are doing homework until 11 PM, if not later. And because EVERYONE is doing it, the peer pressure to conform and compete is very high. This is why I plan to have my kids stay in Chinese schools only the first few years (2nd grade, maybe 3rd).

Because of the huge surge in new construction in China, from a facilities point of view the schools we looked at are all brand new (< 10 yrs), and fantastic. I remember when I was a kid, our physical education class involved kicking a soccer ball on on a street. I was so terrified of the unbelievably disgusting bathrooms that I actually pooped my pants in 2nd grade. Now these schools all have big grassy fields, clean cafeterias, and more than decent bathrooms. But when I spoke to the teachers / staff, it was obvious that many schools still had a very traditional mindset towards kids that I felt uncomfortable with... teachers often went beyond demanding to being mean. We found one elementary school where the principle claims a different attitude; he's a firm believer in children being happy, before they can really learn. He's committed to "entering the children's world" instead of enforcing the adult one on them. Best of all? This isn't one of those super-popular busy schools that everyone is fighting to get into... just a laid-back neighborhood school where anyone living in the area could attend.

Class sizes at many elementary schools is in the 45-50 range. The top schools all have 50+ per class, there's just too much demand. There's a move towards "small-class" systems... and some schools are now doing a pilot program at around 30 kids per class. We'll be in one of those.

How serious is schooling in China...? Well, let's talk about the political freedom issue mentioned above. Obviously, people don't take to the streets casually, not even when someone on the internet challenges them. In the city/community we ultimately chose, the school district is being re-drawn for two elementary schools. (Huge population growth in this new district, thousands of people are moving in every year.) One elementary school has a very good reputation (why? because it has tested well - lots of kids going to a good junior high school)... ALL of the parents in the area want to be in that school's district (and people WITHOUT kids still want to be in that district - it can dramatically increase property value). Lots of petitions being passed around.

Finally, the education department came up with what I thought was a pretty good idea.... in order to accommodate everyone, both schools will be "merged" and administrated together. (One will be called School #1, the other is School #2.) Grades 1-3 will be located at school #2, grades 4-6 can be at school #1. Not bad, right? Double the capacity for the same quality school. Unfortunately, not quite. Some parents are angry beyond belief about this... angry enough that there have been several very public protests in front of the education department over the past few weeks. THAT'S serious in China. Fortunately, we're avoiding all of this and going to a school none of these parents care about.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Gus » 01 May 2013 19:35

r2i is a common word for expat indian returning to india. I myself am one and there are plenty in this forum as well. There is an r2i thread where we post our experiences.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby member_20292 » 01 May 2013 19:50

^^^^

Good post heech. ( I wonder how you got that name though....)

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 01 May 2013 20:02

There are quite a few Chinese sea-turtles (Chinese version of r2i). But these are almost all entirely returning professionals. Mostly the huge population of Chinese grad students returning after graduation. There are now increasing number of young kids returning to live with grandparents - parents cant afford them / want to focus on career. As of now at least, families rarely choose to r2c.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Suraj » 01 May 2013 22:17

Very interesting posts, heech. Please continue. A question though - you mentioned: " Because that determines which high school (10th-12th grade) they will test into... why? Because that ultimately determines which university they will test into."

Are you referring to just the schools being good, or that if you want to get into, say, BeiDa (Beijing University), you have to go to specific schools to strengthen your application file through the status of the school, beyond the better education and (hopefully) better scores you'll have ? I thought entrance is driven by GaoKao only ?

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 01 May 2013 22:40

Suraj wrote:Very interesting posts, heech. Please continue. A question though - you mentioned: " Because that determines which high school (10th-12th grade) they will test into... why? Because that ultimately determines which university they will test into."

Are you referring to just the schools being good, or that if you want to get into, say, BeiDa (Beijing University), you have to go to specific schools to strengthen your application file through the status of the school, beyond the better education and (hopefully) better scores you'll have ? I thought entrance is driven by GaoKao only ?

The reputation of the school doesn't matter. Admission at each level is determined by test scores (junior high, high school, university). The belief is just that certain schools will better prepare you for these tests. I guess if I was going to take an optimistic view of things, the fact that parents will fight tooth + nail for the right school is "proof" that meritocracy is still alive in this sense in China.

Oh, another anecdote from the less attractive side of this obsession with education... teachers at top tier elementary schools never have to worry about their finances. Although technically illegal / against regulations, they are bombarded with gifts from parents. I'm talking large amounts of cash, Coach bags, expensive perfumes, etc, etc. Parents want to buy every advantage possible for their kids. If you send gifts... your kids will get called on in class, will be moved closer to the blackboard. If you don't send gifts, expend them to languish in the back of the classroom ignored by the teacher. Again, I feel free blessed I don't have to compete in that rat race.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby member_20292 » 01 May 2013 23:03

^^^ How did you avoid it? You moved the kid to the American school in China ?

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 01 May 2013 23:47

mahadevbhu wrote:^^^ How did you avoid it? You moved the kid to the American school in China ?

No, my kids are going to a local public elementary school. The kind of under-the-table corruption I mentioned only happens at the top, most competitive elementary schools. (3 are consistently thought of as the "best" in this city of about 8 million in eastern China.) The school we picked for our kids is a very normal, average school where that wouldn't happen.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Suraj » 01 May 2013 23:53

Being a teacher seems like a very cushy job in those parts of China. Here and in India, the tiger moms just hassle them at PTA meetings. Over there, they gift the teachers Coach and Looey Wooiton for guanxi :rotfl:

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby member_20292 » 02 May 2013 01:19

^^^ and heech, I assume that you can run asset management firms from anywhere around the world?

Do not China's laws on private capital, the lackluster Shanghai index and other financial issues hamper your work?

I encourage you to invest in India BTW..... :) {Indian stocks love you long time! :D }

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 02 May 2013 02:34

mahadevbhu wrote:^^^ and heech, I assume that you can run asset management firms from anywhere around the world?

Do not China's laws on private capital, the lackluster Shanghai index and other financial issues hamper your work?

I encourage you to invest in India BTW..... :) {Indian stocks love you long time! :D }

I don't plan to accept Chinese investors, and I don't plan to (in the short term) invest in Chinese markets. I invest in US and European-listed commodities at the moment, and I leave behind an operations team in the US. I would actually save myself a lot of money if I ultimately gave up my US residency.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby paramu » 02 May 2013 04:20

Shouldn't you invest when the market is low to reap the rewards when it goes high? Otherwise you will be far away from market and customers which could be a disadvantage.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby sanjaykumar » 02 May 2013 04:44

I don't plan to accept Chinese investors, and I don't plan to (in the short term) invest in Chinese markets. :roll:

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 02 May 2013 06:39

sanjaykumar wrote:I don't plan to accept Chinese investors, and I don't plan to (in the short term) invest in Chinese markets. :roll:

What part of this is confusing for you?

I love China, it's my homeland. I'm very proud of what China has achieved so far, and I'm very optimistic about its long-term future. I enjoy living there, and I look forward to sharing it with my family. That said, China's capital markets are opaque, immature, and very poorly regulated. Investors are mostly unsophisticated (capital markets only have 20-years of history in China), and I am personally always concerned about source of funds + money laundering issues for newly rich Chinese.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby sanjaykumar » 02 May 2013 07:12

Well as long as they are teaching your kids about money and great China dream, they don't really need to know the word for freedom.

As long as you are making money, it is okay that women are being widely sold into sexual servitude . The CCP Audis more than compensate. Or that intellectually handicapped people are being insured and then killed by Chinese entrepreneurs for the money. But then to be rich is to be glorious.

Your protestations seem more like you are trying to convince yourself, not me.

You seem to be fundamentally well meaning. But somewhat naive.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Suraj » 02 May 2013 07:53

Sanjaykumar: stop trolling.

member_20292
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby member_20292 » 02 May 2013 08:24

so ....

heech saar.... I d like to pm you about working in China.

you might put an email where I can reach out to you here and delete the post in a day.

or

my email Id is com.
Last edited by member_20292 on 03 May 2013 07:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 02 May 2013 19:54

The HSR does 1000km in 4h and cost USD 100. Now In India a distance of 1500 km would be travelled in 2h at a cost of USD 80 if we take the flight and book in advance.So why did the CHINESE go the HSR route and not air? Seems like a flawed strategy or some other objective is there?

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby sanjaykumar » 02 May 2013 19:54

I don't follow this thread and may have been off topic. If so, I do apologist to Heech.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 02 May 2013 21:00

subhamoy.das wrote:The HSR does 1000km in 4h and cost USD 100. Now In India a distance of 1500 km would be travelled in 2h at a cost of USD 80 if we take the flight and book in advance.So why did the CHINESE go the HSR route and not air? Seems like a flawed strategy or some other objective is there?


HSR is not competitive beyond 500 km. This is a real physical limit. You have to ask the Chinese why they went this route.


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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 02 May 2013 22:45

subhamoy.das wrote:The HSR does 1000km in 4h and cost USD 100. Now In India a distance of 1500 km would be travelled in 2h at a cost of USD 80 if we take the flight and book in advance.So why did the CHINESE go the HSR route and not air? Seems like a flawed strategy or some other objective is there?

The 4 hr trip I took cost roughly 700 RMB for 1st class seats (and I think 500 RMB for 2nd class seats). I looked at airfare for the same trip, and it was 2 hrs... but actually cost more, I think 1050 RMB (roughly $150 USD). But yes, as Fidel mentioned, HSR loses much of its advantage for that kind of a trip. It's primary advantage is in shorter trips, those within 300km. My trip to Beijing had 4-5 stops along the way, and there was quite a bit of both on/off traffic at every stop.

There *are* other advantages for HSR over air, from the point of view of planners:

- scalability. One day, hundreds of millions of trips will be done on HSR every year. To accommodate that many travelers in the air... well, I'm not even sure it's possible. You can't afford to have extra passenger jets sitting around unused during the off-season.
- separation of freight / passenger traffic. This is what I've read, not something that I personally have any expertise in. But it does make sense that moving cargo will be much more efficient if you can separate it from time-critical passenger traffic.
- urbanization. Every HSR rail stop between Beijing and Shanghai, or Wuhan and Guangzhou becomes a new hub for urbanization.

Ignoring the big picture view... speaking on an entirely personal basis, I would still prefer HSR for that 4 hr trip, even if it cost more than airfare... for any number of reasons.

- It's departure and arrival times are VERY reliable. No delays for weather or traffic or whatever.
- And if I happen to miss my scheduled departure... no big deal, next train's in 15 minutes. What happens if you miss your flight?
- HSR train stations tend to be very convenient, located in the heart of cities and directly connected to the subway system. Most airports in China are probably 30 KM+ away from the city core. And so now you have to deal with potential traffic problems getting to/from the airport.
- Finally, just minor quality of life stuff. I get cell phone coverage for the whole trip; I can walk around and use the restrooms + dining car at my convenience; I can plug in and use my computer (without having to power stuff down for take off / landing).
- (And god forbid, if a terrorist sneaks on a bomb... I have a better chance of surviving on my HSR than on my plane!)

As a business traveler, I think HSR is the much more attractive solution. If I was flying once a year for vacation and wasn't dealing with a tight schedule, then I'd probably just pick the least expensive option.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 03 May 2013 03:08

With migrant workers now averaging US$395 a month in salary (in addition to free room / board) ... you can see how China is changing. And why high speed rail, even at $50-100 / ticket, becomes increasingly accessible for hundreds of millions.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... TopStories

The measures are a response to an unprecedented shortage in China's workforce. Demand for workers exceeded supply by a record in the first quarter. China's working-age population, defined as people from ages 15 to 59, fell last year for the first time in decades, a result of the national one-child policy that was implemented in 1980.

While the number of migrant workers in China rose 3.9% last year, manufacturers face stiff competition from construction, mining and other industries for staff. The average monthly wage for such workers has increased 74% in the past four years, to $395 in the first quarter.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby KrishnaK » 03 May 2013 06:39

A lot of EU residents and even desis there appreciate HSR. City centre to city centre makes it very convenient if commuting to a diff city is a routine job.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby vina » 03 May 2013 14:17

A lot of EU residents and even desis there appreciate HSR. City centre to city centre makes it very convenient if commuting to a diff city is a routine job

Trouble is ,in china, the HSR doesn't go from city center to city center, but a far off HSR port to another far off HSR port .

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby wong » 03 May 2013 17:06

vina wrote:
A lot of EU residents and even desis there appreciate HSR. City centre to city centre makes it very convenient if commuting to a diff city is a routine job

Trouble is ,in china, the HSR doesn't go from city center to city center, but a far off HSR port to another far off HSR port .


Now, you're just making stuff up. Take for example the Beijing-Shanghai HSR. It starts at Beijing South Station, which was originally built in the 1890's. It's located on the third ring. No, the HSR doesn't start at the Forbidden City, but everyone else non-Indian would consider it city center.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Prem » 03 May 2013 22:49

Rat-Meat Ring Busted, Almost 1,000 People Arrested
http://www.webpronews.com/rat-meat-ring ... ed-2013-05

Rat meat is passing for mutton in China these days.
Police have discovered a ring of criminals who were using spices to flavor rat, mink, and fox meat at marketplaces. So far, 904 people have been arrested, and nearly 20,000 tons of tainted or fake meat has been confiscated. The arrests came after a sharp crackdown in food safety measures in Shanghai and Jiangsu after sudden outbreaks of bird flu, which is a major problem in China right now. Health officials there recently updated the death toll from H7N9–a new and particularly virulent strain of the disease–to 27, the latest victim a 55-year old man. 26 people have recovered from the virus. Scientists have confirmed that the flu is being passed to humans from chickens.Food safety is a growing concern in China, as is the safety of the drinking water. More than 16,000 rotting pigs were reportedly found in a main water source in Shanghi in March; officials believe overcrowding of a nearby pig farm was to blame. “Food safety crimes are still prominent, and new situations are emerging with new characteristics,” the Ministry said in a statement.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby heech » 04 May 2013 02:20

wong wrote:Now, you're just making stuff up. Take for example the Beijing-Shanghai HSR. It starts at Beijing South Station, which was originally built in the 1890's. It's located on the third ring. No, the HSR doesn't start at the Forbidden City, but everyone else non-Indian would consider it city center.

And ends at Hongqiao station in Shanghai, which is pretty close to the core of the city.

Some of the smaller cities in between intentionally built their stations further out, because they're trying to build a new urban district. But by and large, it's incredibly convenient.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Austin » 04 May 2013 10:48

No yuan for growth

China's investment binge of 2009-10 is dragging down its economy

China's policymakers obviously recognised the challenge in 2008. Unfortunately, they botched their policy response. Instead of channelling resources to boost domestic consumption and the private sector, Beijing splurged roughly $2 trillion on fixed investments, most of them undertaken by local governments and state-owned enterprises. Predictably, such investments, financed largely by bank debt, were doomed to be unproductive.

Not too long ago, few people thought that the mighty Chinese economy, which registered an average annual growth rate of 10 per cent between 1979 and 2009, could slow down. Some economists used linear assumptions to project that the Chinese economy could overtake the American economy in size before 2020.

As with similar overly optimistic projections about the Soviet economy and the Japanese economy, the forecast of an ever-rising China now seems grossly off the mark. The latest growth data released by Beijing showed Chinese GDP rose 7.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2013. On its own (and if we accept Chinese official numbers as honest ones), this should be respectable growth. But the world's financial markets reacted poorly. Share prices plunged. The reason? The number came in below expectations. Nearly everybody was counting on China to grow close to 8 per cent.

Although it is possible that financial markets may have overreacted to China's sub-par growth data, the fact that the Chinese economy has been slowing is hardly in dispute. Since it last recorded double-digit growth (10.4 per cent) in 2010, the Chinese economy has decelerated rapidly, falling to 9.3 per cent in 2011 and 7.8 per cent in 2012. Taken together, the magnitude of GDP deceleration was roughly 25 per cent.

There is no shortage of theories about the slowdown of the Chinese economy. The anaemic global economy is an obvious culprit. As the world's largest exporting power (by volume), China's fortune is closely tied to the rest of the world. In particular, China's main export markets — the United States, Europe and Japan, which account for 60 per cent of Chinese merchandise exports — have been struggling with financial deleveraging, debt crisis and high unemployment. However, a poor external environment is only partly responsible for the great Chinese slowdown. While net exports contributed roughly 25 per cent of China's GDP growth between 2001 and 2008, their contribution to GDP growth has been negative since. In other words, in the last four years, the Chinese economy has relied almost exclusively on domestic investment and consumption for growth.

That is where the main causes of the economic slowdown lie. In the fast-growth period, China depended on three engines to power its economy: exports, investment and consumption. Exports and investment contributed roughly 60 per cent of the growth, with 40 per cent coming from consumption. But as the share of contribution to GDP growth from exports becomes negative, investment and consumption must make up the shortfall.

China's policymakers obviously recognised this challenge in 2008. Unfortunately, they botched their policy response. Instead of channelling resources to boost domestic consumption and the private sector, Beijing splurged roughly $2 trillion on fixed investments, most of them undertaken by local governments and state-owned enterprises. Predictably, such investments, financed largely by bank debt, were doomed to be unproductive.

But for the short-term — 2009 and 2010 — the Chinese GDP maintained its speed because massive fixed asset investments fuelled the economy. The rest of the world cheered. Many intelligent people went so far as to claim that only a one-party regime could deliver such an effective policy response.

Little did they know that a significant portion of the Chinese stimulus went into useless projects. Local governments went on a spending spree, building shining office buildings, shopping malls, highways, bridges and power plants. Real estate developers erected pricey apartment buildings to capitalise on sky-rocketing property prices. State-owned enterprises expanded their production capacity indiscriminately.

Today, the investment binge of 2009-2010 is dragging down economic growth through two channels. The financial leveraging in this period, during which Chinese banks issued new loans worth $3.6 trillion (about 43 per cent of the Chinese GDP in 2011), led to a massive build-up of debt accumulated by Chinese cities and corporations. While the Chinese government has not disclosed the percentage of non-performing loans on the books of Chinese banks, many economists following China believe the number is substantial. At the moment, Chinese banks have not recognised these loans as non-performing, mainly because Beijing has not pushed them to do so. However, the highly indebted local governments and corporations have become huge credit risks and, as a consequence, are finding it harder to draw new loans to survive. That is the reason why China's shadow banking system has grown explosively in the past few years. These entities are now issuing high-yield securities called wealth management products and, through Chinese banks, selling them to unsuspecting Chinese savers seeking better returns. The assets in the shadow banking system are estimated to be 10-15 per cent of those in the banking sector (which equal to roughly 300 per cent of the GDP). Credit tightening, prompted by rising credit risks, thus effectively shuts off access to capital for risky borrowers, thus slowing down growth. Of course, China can stimulate growth by loosening credit, as it has done in recent months. Unfortunately, even loosening is delivering less bang for the buck — because the economy is highly inefficient.

This leads us to the second channel through which the stimulus of 2009-2010 is holding back growth. The massive investments in manufacturing capacity, which began earlier last decade but got a boost during this period, produced enormous overcapacity in many industries in China. As a result, profit margins have been squeezed, if not destroyed. Heavily indebted Chinese corporations, even when they get new credit, can only use it to service old loans, instead of producing for profit. Such "zombie companies" now dot the Chinese industrial landscape.

Without addressing the two interconnected problems of over-leveraging and excess capacity, the Chinese economy is likely to stagnate and face its own version of a debt crisis at some point in the near future. Obviously, with a closed capital account and near-total government control of the banks, a rapid meltdown of the Chinese financial sector, such as the one the world witnessed following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, is unlikely. But the drag on growth caused by over-leveraging and excess capacity is both real and substantial.

For China's new leaders, financial de-leveraging and industrial consolidation are among their top economic priorities. Unfortunately, these two tasks, critically important for sustaining long-term growth, will mean only more bad news to come. If accomplished, they could further depress short-term growth.

The writer is a professor of government and non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the US

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 05 May 2013 11:01

Totally agreed.The basic thing which CHINA failed to do is create sustainable jobs and millions of them. The $ of dollars they pumped into the economy,whether to create factories or malls or buildings or power plants or roads, created much less number of sustainable jobs and hence did not boost local consumption to the extent and hence the low bang for the buck. The HSR can be seen in that light another attempt to create tons of jobs. A push to knowledge driven economy is the ONLY answer where millions of knowledge jobs are created and sustained. CHINA need to build working offices where people will come and work for their lives. But the problem is that such job creation can only be done in a democratic way - means by the people or private enterprises and not by GOVT. So the CHINESE GOVT is inviting foreign knowledge workers to come and work in CHINA and staff offices because jobs are where offices are.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Theo_Fidel » 05 May 2013 20:44

Is China too in a liquidity trap, where low consumption keep inflation under control, while keeping the economy on the edge of deflation...


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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby jamwal » 06 May 2013 11:10

heech wrote:
In Beijing for example, homes within 5-10 km of the urban core is going for 40,000 RMB/sq m (roughly $7000 USD / sq m). A single, fairly sized 90 meter home is therefore $630,000 USD. These are not speculators buying new construction, and there is no debt on these homes. They might be earning only $10,000 USD a year through work, but their net worth (especially for younger generations inheriting multiple homes) is nearing the millions.

Of course, these Beijing'ers would tell you paper wealth isn't worth much since they still need a place to live. They can't cash out and still afford to live in Beijing. I think the next trend that will come (at least I *hope* it will come), is that these people will realize they can cash out... and just move into the suburbs. High-speed rail makes the "suburbs" a very large area.

Doing the math in my head... I can sell my $630,000 USD home, buy another one in the suburbs for $150,000, and pocket $500,000 USD. Isn't that a pretty damn nice alternative, when I'm just making $10,000/year in my day job? If this happens, I can see the real estate bubble in mainland China gradually deflating rather than imploding.




It's same in every city with high population growth. People living in even 2 room shacks are worth millions due to exponential increase in land prices. Just for an example, land prices in Dwarka, a sub-urban area of Delhi have shot up to 20 times their value in just 10-12 years. There are many people who sold their properties in Old Delhi area and bought new ones in rest of NCR. Now, even these newer properties are worth so much money that these guys are multi-millionaires yet again..
I don't know how it exactly compares with China, but IMHO land prices will keep rising for a long time in Asia at least.

krishnan
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby krishnan » 06 May 2013 12:48

Place where i live , its normal for a 2400 sq ft area to go for 1 - 1.5 crores

kmkraoind
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby kmkraoind » 06 May 2013 14:28

Protest turns violent in China's Guizhou province

Photos circulating on Chinese websites showed several police cars overturned and destroyed, with reports saying that police fired tear gas and arrested several protesters.

The statement said that the protesters blocked the road leading to the scene with coffins and hurled abusive language at the police and workers while attacking them.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________
The Economic Observer
- Shanghai Seeks Young Cadres.
- Government Weeds Out Freeloaders.
- Shenzhen's New School Admissions Scheme Gives Home Owners Priority over Locals.

LOL, yet PRC is called socialistic. Wondering what happens when little princes aka Chinese soldiers die in battle, who will look after his 2 parents and 4 grandparents.

subhamoy.das
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 08 May 2013 17:47

place where i live, 1500 sqft goes for 1.5 crore right now....So i can also sell and move inlands and become a millionire. But that is not how a country becomes rich....

subhamoy.das
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby subhamoy.das » 08 May 2013 17:48


Austin
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Austin » 09 May 2013 00:12

China plans yuan convertibility this year

China will propose plans this year to allow freer flows of its currency in and out of the country, Bloomberg reported. The plan on yuan capital-account convertibility will also include a way to let individuals make overseas investments, the State Council said. Other measures include improving controls on risks from local-government debt and pushing forward changes to the country’s household-registration system.



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