Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions

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srin
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby srin » 27 Jan 2014 21:16

What about the reserves ? Each fighter would require atleast say, four times the amount of AAMs, no ? And using your number of $2.5M, it works out to 40M per fighter.

And 2.5M per missile is daylight robbery.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Eric Leiderman » 27 Jan 2014 22:09

Yes the European missiles are expensive, However the Katrina will be mated with Russian missiles and hopefully down the line with our own missiles.
If the learning curve is followed by our MOD ,( hopefully in the contract,) enough info will be available fm OEM, such that upgrades can be done inhouse , possibly with Israel on board.
The IAF wants the bird, They seem confidant that it will be more than good enough till the AMCA comes in numbers.
Also the Raffy is already compatable with American weapons ,which were used in Libya , so thats another not so expensive alternative,
With the bird having multiple options as far as weaponary is concerned, the corrosponding tactics incorporated by opposing airforces will have a built in delay till the type of missile can be narrowed down(I taking a hail mary pass here) and diversonary measures deployed.
The logistics of stocking the same is the downside
Last edited by Eric Leiderman on 27 Jan 2014 22:17, edited 3 times in total.

Lalmohan
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Lalmohan » 27 Jan 2014 22:15

missiles will follow a declining price curve no? (function of volume)

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby V_Raman » 27 Jan 2014 22:32

The only way we can afford such a loadout is on Tejas.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby vishvak » 27 Jan 2014 22:58

Declining prices is one factor and another could be advances in tech(miniaturization or lighter or quicker or better performance in some way). This is why Tejas can get more priceless over time. It is lethal as it is for an enemy and will be better still with time.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby abhik » 27 Jan 2014 23:16

Lalmohan wrote:missiles will follow a declining price curve no? (function of volume)

Even if the India orders, the europeans might dump their share of the committed numbers, as they have been doing with the Typhoon etc., leading to no substantial decrease in price. Anyway why should we even talk about sustaining another country's MIC by letting them suck us dry.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby abhik » 27 Jan 2014 23:17

Eric Leiderman wrote:...With the bird having multiple options as far as weaponary is concerned, the corrosponding tactics incorporated by opposing airforces will have a built in delay till the type of missile can be narrowed down(I taking a hail mary pass here) and diversonary measures deployed.
The logistics of stocking the same is the downside

Sounds very chanakyan (or chunkian in BRF lingo).

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Christopher Sidor » 27 Jan 2014 23:27



Wonder what is the RCS of such a fully laden Rafale? And also its combat radius?

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby vivek_ahuja » 28 Jan 2014 00:07

Don't know about others, but I for one would like this negotiation thing played out as much as possible. The more pain it inflicts, the more power goes behind making Tejas a success. It may be painful in the short term, but I suspect in the long term it will be the catalyst behind more indigenous aircraft projects.

IMVHO, of course.

-Vivek

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby anand_sankar » 28 Jan 2014 00:17

@vivek_ahuja

The sums that are being talked about now are truly phenomenal. It will be a miracle if contract gets signed and the number of aircraft stays at 126.

It is almost an impossibility that the contract will be signed before March 31. Model code of conduct for the elections is just about 75 days away.

Route ahead might be some more Su-30MKIs, a few 40/60+ Rafales or even a contract for 60+ Mig 35s, and a bump in the Tejas Mk-I order.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby anand_sankar » 28 Jan 2014 00:19

@Christopher:

ATC: Unidentified aircraft, are you an A-380 or a blimp?

Unidentified Aircraft: Just a fully-laden Rafale.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Viv S » 28 Jan 2014 00:28

abhik wrote:Even if the India orders, the europeans might dump their share of the committed numbers, as they have been doing with the Typhoon etc., leading to no substantial decrease in price. Anyway why should we even talk about sustaining another country's MIC by letting them suck us dry.

Its the same with Dassault as well -


In its proposed defence planning law for the six-year period spanning 2014 to 2019, the French defence ministry has proposed slashing its number of received Dassault Rafales to just 26 aircraft.

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-d ... tion-rate/


Between 2016 and 2017, the French MoD plans to use the production line only for export orders (assuming they come through), sustaining the minimum production rate (11 aircraft per year) required to keep it profitable.
Last edited by Viv S on 28 Jan 2014 00:33, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Viv S » 28 Jan 2014 00:32

anand_sankar wrote:Route ahead might be some more Su-30MKIs, a few 40/60+ Rafales or even a contract for 60+ Mig 35s, and a bump in the Tejas Mk-I order.

The IAF already operates six different types of fighter aircraft (not including the Tejas). The service needs to consolidate around three (or at worst four) types post-2030. Adding the Rafale or MiG-35 will be counter-productive.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby vivek_ahuja » 28 Jan 2014 00:36

Viv S wrote:
anand_sankar wrote:Route ahead might be some more Su-30MKIs, a few 40/60+ Rafales or even a contract for 60+ Mig 35s, and a bump in the Tejas Mk-I order.

The IAF already operates six different types of fighter aircraft (not including the Tejas). The service needs to consolidate around three (or at worst four) types post-2030. Adding the Rafale or MiG-35 will be counter-productive.


Exactly my thought. I shudder to think of adding 40-60 of any additional type of aircraft to the circus we already have. Either we buy the Rafale and replace numerous types with it as Karan M had stated earlier, or we shelve the MRCA deal and get behind the Su-30/LCA/AMCA/Jag idea.

-Vivek

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Avarachan » 28 Jan 2014 03:45

vivek_ahuja wrote:Don't know about others, but I for one would like this negotiation thing played out as much as possible. The more pain it inflicts, the more power goes behind making Tejas a success. It may be painful in the short term, but I suspect in the long term it will be the catalyst behind more indigenous aircraft projects.


Vivek, I think that the MMRCA competition was intentionally dragged out to allow the Tejas a chance to mature. If the contract had been awarded back in 2005 or even in 2008, there's a good chance that the IAF would have decided to purchase 400 of one of the cheaper, less-capable planes. The Tejas would have been cancelled or a small token order for it would have been placed.

I'm not exaggerating. Several years ago, it was commonly whispered by foreign manufacturers that if the Tejas were cancelled, the MMRCA order would go up to 400.
Last edited by Avarachan on 28 Jan 2014 05:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby srai » 28 Jan 2014 04:44

In the current timelines, LCA Mk.2 won't be entering squadron service until after 2020. By 2017/18 it is expected that peak production capacity of 16 a/c a year would be reached and all 40 Mk.1 on order will be delivered by then. It would be wise for the IAF to order another 40 Mk.1 aircrafts to be delivered by 2020 to replace 4 MiG-21 squadrons while the Mk.2 gets ready for production (with possible program delays). Compared to the Rafales (with its price escalating out of control), these LCA Mk.1s are very cheap and yet fully capable for their planned role. As intended, they should be used to bulk up fleet numbers like the MiG-21s. Expensive planes like the Rafale can only be bought in limited quantities.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Viv S » 28 Jan 2014 05:37

srai wrote:In the current timelines, LCA Mk.2 won't be entering squadron service until after 2020. By 2017/18 it is expected that peak production capacity of 16 a/c a year would be reached and all 40 Mk.1 on order will be delivered by then.


The Mk2 will fly in 2015 and be in production by 2018 (no LSPs).

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Singha » 28 Jan 2014 07:41

>> However the Katrina will be mated with Russian missiles

really? I feel we will have a struggle and pay very heavily even to integrate Astra and sudarshan with OEM support.
they have no vested interest in cutting sales of their own Mica in favour of replacements.
thankfully the rafale already seems integrated with the paveway series (?) in that case might as well pay for SDB integration and skip the AASMs.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby NRao » 28 Jan 2014 08:20


vic
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby vic » 28 Jan 2014 19:41

It seems that Rafale per Unit will cost USD 120 Million + Ground Support equipment, say 50% = 180 Million per Rafale. Which will make the deal around USD 22 Billion for 126 Rafales. For this sort of money we can get 846 LCA Mark-1s. And for the cost of 200 Rafales, we can get around 1300 LCAs. I think that Rafale is Criminal waste of money.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Singha » 28 Jan 2014 19:43

even at around 100 mil for a MKI super30, with solid ground infra and stock of weapons already built up, we could get twice the number of flankers.
ideally we bridge the gap with a Mix of super30 and tejas mk1 and mk2 (HAL to be funded as appropriate to step up production) and use another 3 billion to bring into production a range of desi weapons like astra mk1 & mk2, sudarshan, sudarshan-glonass, range extn kit, brahmos3, and my favourite a 18 feet long air launched heavy torpedo on mki centerline to blast ships from long range 8)

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Christopher Sidor » 28 Jan 2014 19:49

anand_sankar wrote:@Christopher:

ATC: Unidentified aircraft, are you an A-380 or a blimp?

Unidentified Aircraft: Just a fully-laden Rafale.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
On a serious note what is point of a fully-laden Rafale, if it cannot deliver its load and get back to its base for another mission? Are we expecting Tibet and East Turkestan to be bereft of any PLA's air defense forces?

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Lalmohan » 28 Jan 2014 19:50

no doubt we will get a handful of AASM's for super special missions, and then make do with larger numbers of paveways and sudarshans
perhaps even use the eSM capabilities to sneak in some dumb daylight bomb trucks who otherwise wouldn't have made it in to the zone
many things are possible
have faith!

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby srin » 28 Jan 2014 20:48

vic wrote:It seems that Rafale per Unit will cost USD 120 Million + Ground Support equipment, say 50% = 180 Million per Rafale. Which will make the deal around USD 22 Billion for 126 Rafales. For this sort of money we can get 846 LCA Mark-1s. And for the cost of 200 Rafales, we can get around 1300 LCAs. I think that Rafale is Criminal waste of money.



Overall, point taken and agreed.
But nitpick - you'd still need to pay for the missiles for LCA, so math will change. R-73 may be cheaper than MICA but it is still going to cost something.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby abhik » 28 Jan 2014 21:38

^^^
If I am not wrong the weapons are extra in the Rafale deal too, which will skew the ratios further in favour of the LCA.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Viv S » 28 Jan 2014 21:55

abhik wrote:^^^
If I am not wrong the weapons are extra in the Rafale deal too, which will skew the ratios further in favour of the LCA.


Hugely. The MICAs for just 50 Mirages put us back by $1.25 billion, in 2012. Add in Meteors & AASMs for 126 Rafales and add it a little inflation and we're looking at a staggering bill. Higher still if we decide to purchase SCALP-EGs to complement that.

The only alternative is to opt for an US munitions package, but Dassault will doubtless present another (still hefty) bill for their integration.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby sarkar » 29 Jan 2014 16:01

Since rafael price has shoot up so high, are we going to get complete transfer of snecma engine technology.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby srai » 29 Jan 2014 20:09

sarkar wrote:Since rafael price has shoot up so high, are we going to get complete transfer of snecma engine technology.


No one is going to give full TOT right away (even at a very high price). Wording for such TOTs have a catch to them: "... as soon as the customer can absorb it". This basically means TOT is released very slowly and "full" TOT is only realised after 10 to 20 years later. By then, the seller has used the money to move ahead on to the next generation (or two) technologies.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Will » 29 Jan 2014 22:15

The way things are going don't be surprised that a case for the F-35 is being made. Delay so that the price of the Rafale goes through the roof. Scrap the whole deal on that point. Have the IAF cry blue murder that it cant defend the country with a depleted fleet. Then bring the F-35 in through the govt-to-govt route in the interest of meeting urgent national security requirements. Oh and yes...pay through your nose for the F-35 with no benefit whatsoever to local industry. This is all desi logic :twisted:

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby RoyG » 30 Jan 2014 04:18

sarkar wrote:Since rafael price has shoot up so high, are we going to get complete transfer of snecma engine technology.


:lol:

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby shukla » 30 Jan 2014 05:24


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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby shukla » 01 Feb 2014 06:42

x-post from fgfa thread

Criticism of FGFA project unfounded - Russian strategic analyst

The reports criticising the Indo-Russian project are aimed at diverting attention from the financial problems that the Indian Air Force will face if a contract to purchase Rafale jets is signed, according to Konstantin Makiyenko.


The Russian strategic analyst noted that under the current economic conditions, the French fighters cannot be purchased without cutting spending on other programs. “Going ahead with this project threatens to consume the whole budget for modernizing the Indian Air Force and will leave the country without any fifth-generation technologies,” Makiyenko said.


According to him, the accusation that ‘Russians have been reluctant to share design information’ is completely untrue. “Russia and India are working on the project together, and all information about it is available to Indian engineers and designers,” Makiyenko said.


http://www.redstar.ru/index.php/2011-07 ... roektu-byt

"The continuation of MMRCA project threatens to engulf all allocations for the Indian Air Force and leave the country without the fifth-generation technologies",

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Mort Walker » 03 Feb 2014 23:30

The Rafale is simply not going to happen. The cost in absolute Euros or Dollars has escalated to absurd levels. It is time to end this charade and simply get more Su-30MKIs and Tejas. In a best situation the current Congress government will be forced in to a coalition where they will not hold portfolios of key ministries including PM, home, defence, and finance. At worst the Congress will be booted out all together. What this means is that the Rafale purchase will be reviewed by the next government due to its high cost.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Hitesh » 04 Feb 2014 02:19

I agree.

The technology level by Rafale is being closed upon and/or superseded by Super-30 Flankers and despite the higher operating costs of Flanker, the acquisition costs posed by Rafale do not make Rafael a viable platform. Time to junk Rafale and move on. I would spend more money on getting more Su-30s and LCAs and use the savings to spend more on R&D budgets for AMCA and LCA mk II.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Karan M » 04 Feb 2014 03:16

Per Chaiwallah info, a key Rafale selling point is AESA radar - promises mix of long range performance and very high MTBF/MTBO...as and when India/Russia get to that in airborne FCR, Rafale (perceived) utility will take a big hit.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Philip » 04 Feb 2014 11:34

Flipping through a back issue of AWST.The Dutch planned for 85 JSFs.However,due to the cost increases they've ordered only 37 to keep within their def. budget and planned replacement costs for their old F-16s. The IAF would do well to see how other nations are paring their acquisition plans in the face of eco slowdowns and if wants Rafales would seriously have to rethink upon numbers and costs and the contours of the deal..

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Austin » 04 Feb 2014 12:01

Rafale deal will go ahead the only question is will it happen before the present election or post the new government ie before the end of this financial year or the next one.

After investing so much of Time .Money and Effort the MOD and IAF wont cancel the MMRCA deal .......IAF would definitely face a depleting squadron strength and worse is it is not just quality but quantitative. ( FWIW some one reliable who spoke with IAF chief some month back mentioned that the actual available squadron with IAF is 29 the rest are just glossed up figures ) , MMRCA is a matter of life and death for IAF.

There are also vested interest in Pvt Sector ( Reliance ) and DPSU ( HAL and Co ) that would like to see this deal go through for their own self interest.

Tejas is a non-starter for MMRCA and MKI was never considered for MMRCA ....if IAF needed MKI it would have said so 10 years back.

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby sattili » 04 Feb 2014 12:08

Austin wrote:Rafale deal will go ahead the only question is will it happen before the present election or post the new government ie before the end of this financial year or the next one.

After investing so much of Time .Money and Effort the MOD and IAF wont cancel the MMRCA deal .......IAF would definitely face a depleting squadron strength and worse is it is not just quality but quantitative. ( FWIW some one reliable who spoke with IAF chief some month back mentioned that the actual available squadron with IAF is 29 the rest are just glossed up figures ) , MMRCA is a matter of life and death for IAF.

There are also vested interest in Pvt Sector ( Reliance ) and DPSU ( HAL and Co ) that would like to see this deal go through for their own self interest.

Tejas is a non-starter for MMRCA and MKI was never considered for MMRCA ....if IAF needed MKI it would have said so 10 years back.

Good points...there is a similar discussion going on JSF Turkey or Talisman thread. Some of our rakshaks suggesting that MMRCA to be scrapped immediately (and FGFA also while we are at it) and wait till 2016 or 2018 or.....whatever time it will take for F-35 to get IOC before we take any decision on next fighter. Wouldn't that strategy work for IAF :mrgreen:

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Viv S » 04 Feb 2014 14:50

sattili wrote:Good points...there is a similar discussion going on JSF Turkey or Talisman thread. Some of our rakshaks suggesting that MMRCA to be scrapped immediately (and FGFA also while we are at it) and wait till 2016 or 2018 or.....whatever time it will take for F-35 to get IOC before we take any decision on next fighter. Wouldn't that strategy work for IAF :mrgreen:


Have you wondered why the Rafale has been stuck with the 'Cost Negotiation Committee' for two years? Watched the cost stumble from $11 billion to $13 billion to $18 billion and now past $20 billion?

Our workshare in the FGFA is already minimal, which just goes to show its nothing but a customized PAK FA. And the IAF is yet to refute the news about 'unreliable propulsion', 'badly engineered stealth features'. As far as ToT is concerned, we haven't gotten it for our other sterling 'joint' program i.e. BrahMos (not to mention the T-90). You think Russia is going to hand over PAK-FA's tech (assuming we can even assimilate it)?

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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Postby Austin » 04 Feb 2014 15:10

On Brahmos , Dr Pillai stated recently it will be indiginised in 3 years

Fully indigenous BrahMos missile to be rolled out in three years
"We currently use fully indigenous steel for the missile. Now we are trying to undertake the integration part also at BrahMos," Pillai told reporters here.

"Efforts to make the missile engine at BrahMos will also be realized in three years. However, the explosive components of the missiles will be sourced from outside as we cannot handle explosives in our unit," he said.


On FGFA Direct Interview Quotes from Air Chief and HAL Chief to FORCE

Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne

What design changes has the IAF sought in the FGFA? What does the MTA mean for the IAF in terms of sought capabilities considering that this will be the partnership from the design stage itself with Russia?

There have been no design changes to the FGFA sought vis-à-vis the ASQRs. The FGFA includes features like super manoeuvrability, super cruise, low observability, sensor fusion and centralised information management. The MTA project is a Joint Venture between HAL and Russian UAC-TA for development and production of a Medium Transport Aircraft. The MTA will be a 15 to 20 T class aircraft. As HAL will be involved in the project from the design stage, it will provide HAL the opportunity to absorb critical transport aircraft technology that would be useful for future requirements of the IAF

Air Chief PV Naik

gfiles: What inputs has the IAF provided for the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), and when do you expect it to be operational?
Air Chief Marshal PVN: The FGFA is being jointly developed by India and Russia to meet the operational requirements of both countries. It is a swing role fighter with very advanced avionics, stealth characteristics, enhanced lethality, 360-degree situational awareness, smart weapons, data links and high-end mission computers. The aircraft will also have super-cruise and long-range capabilities. All issues pertaining to the FGFA programme have been discussed and resolved with Russia. The agreement is in its final stages. We envisage induction of these aircraft by 2017.

Chairman, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, Ashok Nayak


What is meant by FGFA’s preliminary design contract being under government approval? Hasn’t the design been frozen by the Russians?


The Russians have already completed 20 flights of their version of FGFA. By government approval we mean the approval to commence the project and the first step would be to sign the Preliminary Design Contract. The exact definition of the scope of activities in the programme and crystallisation of costs and time schedules are expected to take place during the Preliminary Design Phase which is planned to be completed in 18 months. At present, the aircraft has not been frozen into its final configuration.

The Indian Air Force will have certain requirements of its own which will be put across to the Russians and they in turn will share all the design parameters with us that have been done so far. Once the IAF-specific requirements have been spelt out, they will be considered and dovetailed into the preliminary design; it would then be frozen and feasibility studies would be done and the final configuration of FGFA will be established through development flights.

Let me emphasise at this point, the understanding is that all aspects of the FGFA design will be shared by the Russians. I would like to point out that we have never done a programme of this magnitude before. The Russians hope to develop their aircraft by 2015 and after that our (IAF) special requirements will be met for the Indian FGFA which is planned for induction from 2018.

What will be the high-point of FGFA?

The ultimate attribute of FGFA would be its stealth capability. In addition, it will feature supersonic cruise, ultra-manoeuvrability, highly integrated avionics suite, internal carriage of weapons, network centric warfare capabilities etc.

Considering that Su-30MKI is being talked off as fourth generation plus aircraft, how different will FGFA be from this?

FGFA will be a much superior aircraft when compared to the Su-30 MKI. Su-30 aircraft does not have stealth feature and the other fifth generation capabilities as mentioned earlier. FGFA will be able to fire the latest Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missiles. I must point out that we will have a significant contribution to make in the FGFA programme. For example, there are six indigenous avionics systems in Su-30MKI which incidentally have also been accepted by the Algerian Air Force on their Su-30 aircraft. These systems will also be there in the FGFA. We are hopeful to contribute in the area of composites as well.

How sure are we that the Russians indeed have the capability of producing the FGFA, after all, this will be the second FGFA in the world after the US’ Raptor programme?

The Raptor of the US is a reality while the Russian FGFA is still in the preliminary stages. The other FGFA which is under development by the US and eight participating countries is the Joint Strike Fighter (F-35). We have to understand two aspects about the Indo-Russian FGFA programme. First, its development cost will be much lower than the Raptor and second, US is unlikely to share its fifth generation aircraft technology with other countries. In this scenario, the joint Indo-Russia FGFA is the best option available to us.


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