Pakistan arms sales, ops, doctrine, etc

[venug]

They are also claiming it was tested in some undisclosed location in Indian Ocean according to Radio Pakistan

http://www.dawn.com/news/1307384/pakist ... ssile-ispr

hmm, am I missing something? the video shows the missile hitting a target, in the background are mountains after traveling over a beach, lauched by a sub in the Indian Ocean, the missile's range being 450km? which IOR island nation has mountains?

[Prithwiraj]

That's the point... must be some kind of misreporting. it is clearly Arabian Sea

[Sridhar]

I just noticed another aspect of the video posted for the supposed SLCM. The missile that was shown being launched was grey/white/silver in color. The subsequent shots show a red colored missile. I knew about the Pak expertise in painting missiles, but this in-flight paint job is a first even for them! Congratulations to them for this amazing feat!

[Aditya_V]

The only problem is I doubt the French will allow any of the Agostas to be capable of Firing Babur, so Pakis will have to wait to induct thier Chinese subs. But Nukes on a Diesel Electric Sub firing a subsonic cruise missile? No boomers eh? The Chinese to be rattled and this means any Paki subsonic can be a nuclear threat to all nations and aircraft carrier groups for a possible nuke attack. Makes no miltary sense to put a nuke on Diesel Electric Sun in a subsonic cruise missile , seems more for H&D

[bijeet]

BBC - Pakistan test launches submarine cruise missile

Video included.

[nirav]

It's only in paki dreams that a sub launched cruise missile capability is adequate "second strike capability"..

If that were the case IN has operationally deployed sub launched club mijjiles for a while now and could be said to have operationalized the triad.

The strategic utility of the sub launched barber is suspect. It might mostly see al bakistans tac nukes at best employed on them barbers.

But a Paki can ofcourse dream..

[Rakesh]

The only problem is I doubt the French will allow any of the Agostas to be capable of Firing Babur, so Pakis will have to wait to induct thier Chinese subs. But Nukes on a Diesel Electric Sub firing a subsonic cruise missile? No boomers eh? The Chinese to be rattled and this means any Paki subsonic can be a nuclear threat to all nations and aircraft carrier groups for a possible nuke attack. Makes no miltary sense to put a nuke on Diesel Electric Sun in a subsonic cruise missile , seems more for H&D

The only boats the PN has are the three modern Agosta 90Bs. They have two older Agostas (from the 70s). That is it! They have nothing else. The Chinese boats - eight S20s to be delivered from 2022 onwards - are on order and yet to enter service. Therefore, one of three scenarios is possible;

Scenario # 1) The Babur was fired from one of the three Agosta 90Bs. Since the last boat - Hamza - was built entirely in Pakistan (the Saad was partially built in Pakistan and partially in France, while the Al-Khalid was built entirely in France), the PN probably knows a work around to modify the Hamza (or the Saad or the Al-Khalid) to fire the Babur.

Scenario # 2) The Babur was fired from a Type 41 Yuan Class boat. Since the PN is getting a variant of this boat - the S20 - that idea is not entirely unbelievable. Granted not a single S20 is in service with the PN, but a Type 039A (the S20 is an export variant of this type) boat could be loaned by the PLAN to the PN for the purpose. Seeing how Chinese boats visit Gwadar regularly, it gives this conspiracy idea more weight.

Scenario # 3) No Babur was fired at all. The video being shown to the world is completely doctored. That is a fact. No missile changes colour mid-flight. There is no tactical need to. However put out a fake video and prove to India that Pakistan too has a second strike capability in response to the successful Agni test and to rub it in for the failed Nirbhay test.

[Bheeshma]

Most likely a pontoon or something.

[ranjan.rao]

BBC - Pakistan test launches submarine cruise missile

Video included.

1. It's funny with the cameraman searching for missile to begin with, speaks volumes about their telmetry and other capabilities. Compare and contrast with the video of nirbhay's second launch(Rajabhoj and gangu teli)
2. at 00:18, the red flag still remains, its only afterwards it goes invisible in the dust. So much for the pinpoint accuracy.
3. I am not sure if the initial white color theory, the image in the beginning is too grainy to ascertain whether the color is red or not, will go by what gurus here say.

[abhishek_sharma]

RAJ ‏@rajfortyseven · 3h3 hours ago

#Pakistan #Nuclear #SLCM #Babur3 Notice video closely at 7s. Missile was flying with canister for almost 8 secs? Cavitation canister??

RAJ ‏@rajfortyseven · 12h12 hours ago

#Pakistan #SLCM #Babur3 Fake video clip uses CGI. Geo-location coming up shortly.

[shiv]

Pakistan’s Lie Of Detecting Indian Submarine Exposed

idrw.org . Read more at India No 1 Defence News Website , Kindly don't paste our work in other websites http://idrw.org/pakistans-lie-of-detect ... ore-121124 .

On November 18, 2016, a video was released by Pakistani military showing that they detected an Indian submarine in Pakistani waters. The video is legit and the submarine shown in the video is Indian Navy’s Type 209 (Shishumar class) submarine which are 2 to 3 decades old. ?However, that was the half truth with manipulated story, and when you will realize the actual story, you won’t get shocked, but laugh instead because only a third grade military of a failed country filled with people in a delusional atmosphere can make such a claim. So here’s how it started…Two warships from People Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) or Chinese Navy left its homeport sometime within late October 2016 for bilateral exercise with Pakistan Navy and the flotilla got surely trailed (followed) by US Navy till Indonesian archiepelago, and later trailed by Indian Navy after getting information of a Chinese flotilla entering in Indian Ocean from eastern side and quickly dispatched a Kilo-class (Sindhughosh) submarine under Eastern Naval Command to trail and monitor the Chinese flotilla to ensure they don’t snoop around Indian water territory when visiting Pakistan. Interestingly, Indian Navy found there were not 2 Chinese ships in the flotilla, but a Type 039G1 Chinese diesel-electric submarine as well, secretly diving submerged with the 2 warships. It was a great opportunity for Indian Navy to study the Chinese Type 039G submarine acoustic data and Indian Navy grabbed the opportunity. When the Chinese flotilla was about to enter the Arabian Sea during late 2nd week of November, Kilo-class submarine stopped trailing and the Indian Western Naval Command took charge and assigned task to one of the Type 209 class (Shishumar) submarine to trail the flotilla till the International waters of Arabian Sea, a few hundreds kilometers from Karachi port (in other words, Type 209 was ordered not to violate Pakistani water territory). Here’s when the main incident starts: Pakistan Navy dispatched its P-3C Orion aircraft to escort the Chinese flotilla to Karachi port. As ordered, Indian Navy trailed the Chinese flotilla till few hundred kilometers away from Karachi port (international waters of Arabian Sea) and SURFACED when the task of trailing was finally done, as there was no need to remain hidden anymore. Co-incidently, the P3C Orion meant to escort Chinese flotilla saw the Indian submarine diving surfaced near Chinese flotilla and recorded the video. And on November 16th, 2016, Pakistan Navy officially announced arrival of a Chinese flotilla for bilateral exercise. (http://www.dawn.com/news/1296721) And finally to everyone’s surprise, on November 18 (2 days later), Pakistan military released a propaganda video showing a surfaced Indian submarine with a manipulated story, quickly gaining headlines. Only an unprofessional miltitary with dirty mindset can come up with such a video. No other countries accepted the Pakistani claim. When it comes to anti-submarine warfare, Pakistan military capability is poor. The news of it spread like wild fire prompting Indian Navy to immediately respond to the allegations. Indian navy rubbished the propaganda, but Pakistan military continued to stick with the stupid claim and even making outrageous claims like Indian submarines are used to give aid to terrorists (freedom fighters) in Balochistan. Its worth noting that both Pakistan and Chinese Navy didn’t announce the secret chinese submarine in the flotilla that docked in Karachi in November 2016, so Indian Navy too decided to be silent about it. However, the information of Type 039G1 in that chinese flotilla was confirmed later after Type 039G docked at the Royal Malaysian Navy’s submarine base from January 3rd till 7th for picking up perishable supplies and for their crew complements to rest after conducting anti-piracy patrols off the coast of Somalia. The mystery is finally solved and Pakistan is totally exposed… Now the big question is, will the Pakistani media show the truth or will they continue being a puppet of Pakistani Army?

idrw.org . Read more at India No 1 Defence News Website , Kindly don't paste our work in other websites http://idrw.org/pakistans-lie-of-detect ... ore-121124 .

[Farooq]

RAJ ‏@rajfortyseven · 3h3 hours ago

#Pakistan #Nuclear #SLCM #Babur3 Notice video closely at 7s. Missile was flying with canister for almost 8 secs? Cavitation canister??

RAJ ‏@rajfortyseven · 12h12 hours ago

#Pakistan #SLCM #Babur3 Fake video clip uses CGI. Geo-location coming up shortly.

The debate is between believers and disbelievers. As always, Pakistan is a country of believers, Djinn launched missiles are the strength of Pakistan. I do not expect kufr Yindoos to believe in what Pakistan says.

BTW, was there a NAVAREA warning for Babur's invasion of Paki land from sea?

[Aditya_V]

Regarding Babur Sub launch some questions.

1. It can be launched by AGosta's, French combat management systems cannot interact with the Missile, so no Pakistani Navy sub launched.

2. Too far away from the coast, so no pontoon either, so what could have launched it a PLAN sub?

3. Chinese subs are about 6-8 years from Induction.

4. Is putting a nuke on a conventional subsonic cruise missile carried in a Diesel Electric sub whicch neither outrun nor have great range a very good idea?

5. All Navies, carrier battle groups in the region then may be extremely vary and actually sink your sub accidentally.

Above all giving Paki past record, it could well been just a sub launched Harpoon or an Exocet from an Agosta and not even a C-602 to please to divert media attention to please thier Insecure taller than mountains and deeper than oceans friends.

[Aditya_V]

The only problem is I doubt the French will allow any of the Agostas to be capable of Firing Babur, so Pakis will have to wait to induct thier Chinese subs. But Nukes on a Diesel Electric Sub firing a subsonic cruise missile? No boomers eh? The Chinese to be rattled and this means any Paki subsonic can be a nuclear threat to all nations and aircraft carrier groups for a possible nuke attack. Makes no miltary sense to put a nuke on Diesel Electric Sun in a subsonic cruise missile , seems more for H&D

The only boats the PN has are the three modern Agosta 90Bs. They have two older Agostas (from the 70s). That is it! They have nothing else. The Chinese boats - eight S20s to be delivered from 2022 onwards - are on order and yet to enter service. Therefore, one of three scenarios is possible;

Scenario # 1) The Babur was fired from one of the three Agosta 90Bs. Since the last boat - Hamza - was built entirely in Pakistan (the Saad was partially built in Pakistan and partially in France, while the Al-Khalid was built entirely in France), the PN probably knows a work around to modify the Hamza (or the Saad or the Al-Khalid) to fire the Babur.

Scenario # 2) The Babur was fired from a Type 41 Yuan Class boat. Since the PN is getting a variant of this boat - the S20 - that idea is not entirely unbelievable. Granted not a single S20 is in service with the PN, but a Type 039A (the S20 is an export variant of this type) boat could be loaned by the PLAN to the PN for the purpose. Seeing how Chinese boats visit Gwadar regularly, it gives this conspiracy idea more weight.

Scenario # 3) No Babur was fired at all. The video being shown to the world is completely doctored. That is a fact. No missile changes colour mid-flight. There is no tactical need to. However put out a fake video and prove to India that Pakistan too has a second strike capability in response to the successful Agni test and to rub it in for the failed Nirbhay test.

Scenario 4- A Harpoon or Exocet launched from Agosta branded as Babur. Look at the BBC and other video's again, the missile surfacing and the Missile hitting the target look completely different. So launch is an old or new Video of Harpoon or Exocet launch, missile near target is an old or new video of Babur/ C802/C602 hitting the target. In fact in slowly analysing and Freezing the BBC video, I see a Grey Coloured Missile at Launch, a Red coloured missile cruising, a small grey coloured air dropped bomb look a like causing a small explosion.

[Paul]

Pakis reconfigured Anti ship Harpoons for land attack roles in violation of the contract with US. No surprises US looked other way when this news came out.

[tsarkar]

There is an immediate need for Naval Coastal Batteries to re-equip with Akash batteries - that would be effective against all three - Harpoon, Exocet & Babur

[Philip]

Don't underestimate the Paki capacity-with PRC assistance to possess a sub-launched cruise missile which could be N-tipped .The PRC has developed their own and the Paki Babur-3 missile is of Chinese parentage. China has for decades helped Pak with its delivery systems for its strat. deterrent.This was only to be expected when our own SSBN programme has been well known for over a decade. Pak possessing conventional AIP subs with N-tipped cruise missiles is the way for an inferior power to go.Israel for long have possessed such a capability using their German U-boats for the same.Similarly,some of our planned conventional subs,preferably with AIP could also have similar capability to confuse and confound the enemy,esp. Pak,using our SSBNs with ICBMs dedicated to deterring China, The Kilos already have Klub capability.Land attack Klub missiless-range reduced Kalibir missiles which were used so effectively against ISIS in Syria from 1500km away by Russia,with enhanced range or even Nirbhay when perfected,would be valuable additional weaponry for our smaller diesel/AIP boats.

This development however only underscores the most vital requirement of the armed forces.MORE SUBS!

[abhishek_sharma]

Shiv Aroor ‏@ShivAroor · 6m6 minutes ago

Shiv Aroor Retweeted Shiv Aroor

#PakFakesBabur: Hilarious fakery in Babur-3 missile test video exposed, Pak ducks for cover. @IndiaToday newsbreak fallout @ 5PM w/ experts.

[rohitvats]

IMO, the point mentioned in the tweet above the 'speed' of the missile, and hence, doctored video, is incorrect.

The video is not contigous; it has snippets from different points in the flight. It does not claim that missile traveled from location X to location Y in the time-mentioned in the video. The author of the tweet has assumed that missile flew from X to Y in Z seconds and came up with speed claim; which of course makes the video as invalid.

[sum]

Shiv Aroor ‏@ShivAroor · 6m6 minutes ago

Shiv Aroor Retweeted Shiv Aroor

#PakFakesBabur: Hilarious fakery in Babur-3 missile test video exposed, Pak ducks for cover. @IndiaToday newsbreak fallout @ 5PM w/ experts.

Whatever the fakery there is no doubt that the day is not far off when the actual Chinese LACMs/SLBMs/<insert xyz> will find their way into TSP OrBAT ( only with a different name and colour) and we will have to take all possible measures to stop this else we will be spending fortunes in building defensive measures for each of these toys being donated to the cat's paw

[Paul]

Lots of dhoti shivering going on. Time for a piskology session here pronto.

[IndraD]

India need to develop strong military ties with Japan & SoKo, unfortunately these nations want development and have people who want to live unlike NoKo & Pk the two proxies of Cheena who are on self destruction mode. This makes India's job difficult.
#Dhotishiver

[shiv]

Land attack Klub missiless-range reduced Kalibir missiles which were used so effectively against ISIS in Syria from 1500km away by Russia,[/b]

Not to pour cold water - but apart from the psychological impact I did not find out what effect those missiles had on ISIS and why the Russians then deployed men and aircraft after that attack

Similarly - i haven't been able to figure out the effect of a US cruise missile attack on Taliban camps in 1998.

Earlier in 1990 Cruise missiles were used in Iraq and were shown in dramatic pictures on CNN. I didn't find out how that shortened the war.

Cruise missiles form 1500 km way are advertised as being able to hit pinpoint targets. Waypoint navigation, satellite guidance and stored imagery of targets were touted as the reasons for their success. But what did they succeed in doing exactly using conventional warheads?

The point really is - unless one uses nuclear warheads or are able to launch 100s of cruise missiles - exactly what is the point in having long range cruise missiles. This is a serious question.

[shiv]

This is no cavitation canister. It is two separate videos spliced together with one fading into another

[Lalmohan]

the original intent of LACM's was to create (no) first use ambiguity and were a highly de-stabilising development in the NATO/USSR European landmass power balance

[Supratik]

I will not wave this away. The next logical step for China to arm Pak is or was nuclear-tipped SLCM on diesel submarines- as SLBMs in SSBNs will invite response from the US. As our experience shows both cruise missiles and pontoons are harder to make than ballistic missiles and Pak's industrial capacity doesn't suggest it has the capability. It has China written all over it. S-400 plus ABM is the way to go for us.

[Aditya_V]

One more thing is the grey missile launched from under water is that there is no booster rocket which gets dumped and fumes show it is a solid fuel missile and no turbojet, so it was most probably an Exocet SM-39. The missile/ Bomb clearly looks like an airlaunchd missile.

As of now Pakis don't have a Sub to fire the Chinese missile and French combat management systems will not allow the integration of this missile. So Pakis will have to wait 6-7 years for the Sub to arrive, I am not aware of Chinese AIP also. So Pakis are going to put Nukes on a Diesel Electric Sub with 7 days submerged Endurance on a missile which will travel at Subsonic speed.

A) So Paki 2 strike ability will mostly be in port or about 3-4 days sailing distance away. Cant outrun ships once missile is fired against a coastal can be tracked Aerostats/ Aew/Awacs and be intercepted.

No distinction between 2 nd strike ability and conventional subs, so everyone in the region to Foreign Carrier battle group is going to intensively scrutinize them.

hmmm

[Supratik]

I think it mentions somewhere that it was fired from a pontoon not a sub. It is most likely a demonstrative event rather than a technical test like all of Pak strategic program. IIRC, we had help from the Russians in building submerged pontoons for testing our missiles. So my guess is that this is a Chinese missile from the same Babur family tested from a pontoon. It will eventually appear in the submarines they are buying. This may be an interim solution till they get their supersonic CMs (cousins of BMos) ready. I don't think the US and their allies will be very happy if China gives them SLBM and SSBN techs. So this is the best second-strike capability they can have as of now. But we don't know given the NoKo program.

[abhishek_sharma]

On the India Today channel, a colonel talked about how the colour of missile has changed.

He also talked about how the direction of missile's movement has changed ...I didn't follow that point.

[Sid]

Let's not focus too much on the video itself, in all probability it's a compilation of stock footage from their archive. Reason for a fudge video,like @Rakesh suggested, can be that it was not test launched from their own platform.

It might be a presales demo from Chinese biraders. No one tests a prototype weapon for the first time straight from active duty submarine, specially when you only got 3 in inventory.

We should count it in their arsenal and develop appropriate response, simple. Why so much butt hurt?

[Supratik]

Yes, we should not put emphasis on that video. It is probably a demo or did not even happen but to tell India we have given them SLCM. If they did it in 2022 with the sub they would have to give more explanations. Now Pak has successfully developed a SLCM ready for integration with the Chinese subs.

[Supratik]

Reading some of the strategic experts on Indian MSM and news report is revealing. They actually believe Pakistan has modified an indigenous CM called Babur into a SLCM which has hit bulls eye. And we SDREs struggle to make even the damn thing to fly in four years.

[shiv]

He also talked about how the direction of missile's movement has changed ...I didn't follow that point.

See the screen grab I have posted above which shows a double missile. The upper one is the one that was launched. Suddenly this second trail appears and goes in a different direction while the original one fades

[Rakesh]

Scenario 4- A Harpoon or Exocet launched from Agosta branded as Babur. Look at the BBC and other video's again, the missile surfacing and the Missile hitting the target look completely different. So launch is an old or new Video of Harpoon or Exocet launch, missile near target is an old or new video of Babur/ C802/C602 hitting the target. In fact in slowly analysing and Freezing the BBC video, I see a Grey Coloured Missile at Launch, a Red coloured missile cruising, a small grey coloured air dropped bomb look a like causing a small explosion.

Yes a very strong possibility. Here is a video of a PN Agosta 90B firing a Harpoon missile....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owxhqD21rWI

There is no way a Babur was fired. That much is now determined.

[Rakesh]

Most likely a pontoon or something.

This link gives credence to that theory, however judging by all the videos and analysis, it seems highly unlikely that a Babur was fired. By the way the link below is a Pakistani sponsored website. So if they are stating it themselves, then you know daal mein kuch kaala hai

Pakistan tests Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile
http://quwa.org/2017/01/09/pakistan-tests-babur-3-submarine-launched-cruise-missile/

It is not clear at this stage if this specific Babur-3 test was conducted from a submarine or another platform, such as a submerged pontoon.

The quote below - from the above article - also lends credence to my earlier theory of a Chinese platform being used to test the missile (if one was indeed fired!). BeiDou is a Chinese satellite navigation system. I am posting a wiki link...

The Babur-3 retains the TERCOM and DSMAC-based guidance suite of the Babur-2 and Babur, but ISPR noted that it also benefits from “global navigation” – suggesting that a satellite-navigation system is also in place. It is possible (in light of a likely wartime blackout of GPS) that this is made possible with BeiDou.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BeiDou_Navigation_Satellite_System

[Rakesh]

and this was to be expected....the Indian Navy will likely have a new platform to deal with...

Pakistan Likely To Acquire Chinese Nuclear Attack Submarines
http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakistan-likely-to-acquire-chinese-nuclear-attack-submarines-ndtv-exclusive-1647370

A Chinese Type 093 'Shang' class submarine, possibly the same boat to have docked in Karachi...

How much would one like to wager that if Babur was indeed fired, that it was from a Chinese boat like the above?

[Rakesh]

Wiki article on Type 093 'Shang Class' submarine....at 7,000 tons, she ain't no pushover.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_093_submarine

[Ankar]

Wiki article on Type 093 'Shang Class' submarine....at 7,000 tons, she ain't no pushover.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_093_submarine

.

Pakis are getting this submarine from the chinks - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_039A_submarine#Export_variant:_S20

[Rakesh]

Yes Ankar we know. I mentioned that in an earlier post. However the lease of a nuke sub is not entirely out of the realm. The chinese are churning out SSNs like pancakes. Leasing one to the PN to keep India engaged in the Arabian Sea makes perfect sense.

China is like Pakistan's sugar daddy.

[Prithwiraj]

Scenario 4- A Harpoon or Exocet launched from Agosta branded as Babur. Look at the BBC and other video's again, the missile surfacing and the Missile hitting the target look completely different. So launch is an old or new Video of Harpoon or Exocet launch, missile near target is an old or new video of Babur/ C802/C602 hitting the target. In fact in slowly analysing and Freezing the BBC video, I see a Grey Coloured Missile at Launch, a Red coloured missile cruising, a small grey coloured air dropped bomb look a like causing a small explosion.

Yes a very strong possibility. Here is a video of a PN Agosta 90B firing a Harpoon missile....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owxhqD21rWI

There is no way a Babur was fired. That much is now determined.

I even doubt this ancient video with funny music.. did you see the ship that go hit by that harpoon-- I doubt PN even had a ship of that size which they used as a target after de-commissioning.