India Border Watch: Security and Operations

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sudeepj
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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby sudeepj » 28 May 2020 06:48

Mort Walker wrote:
sudeepj wrote:Please tell me, why you think India wont request foreign arms if we are fighting a 4-6 week existential war! What happens after the magic 4-6 weeks time is over? We just stop fighting and say sorry-sorry? And what a rubbish start to a 6 week war of annihilation by the Chinese.. PLA lady boys swinging clubs? :rotfl: Here I was expecting ride of the valkyries stuff after watching all their PR videos! :rotfl:


There is NO guarantee of foreign arms, ammunition or even spare parts. Especially if the international community decides to impose an arms embargo on both India and China after a couple of weeks. China's production capacity of weapon systems, no matter how flimsy, exists and can ramp up quickly. India's indigenous weapon systems exist only on paper. After 4-6 weeks India gives up the fight after being annihilated. Either that or opt to go nuclear. If the Chinese build up enough stand-off weapons and aircraft, it becomes very difficult to sustain a counter offensive if the Chinese decide to occupy Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh even after taking significant losses of men and material.

Please cut the bluster and come down to earth. It sounds too much like Pakis boasting.


Keep dreaming hallucinating!

Added Later: There are too many ifs in your scenarios. Both Sikkim and Arunachal are recognized world over as Indian territory. Check CIA/... or any other international maps if needed. Some thing like this would mean not only the end of every bit of post WW II institutionalization of world politics, but also of permanently alienating India from any Chinese influence.

Post Mao/Zhou/.. and post Deng, Chinese leadership has had very a different point of view. What advantages would accrue to China by conquering Sikkim/Arunachal? Its not like any of the world powers can contest their occupation of Tibet from these areas. Its not like their occupation gets any more validity.

Yes, they will injure Indian armed forces severely in this, but India will survive, recover and be ever more hostile and war like. It will go full nuclear. The noisy bandar log that serve Chinas interests in India today will be crushed with an iron hand. If the govt. does nothing the public will lynch them. There will be no trade with China. This is not what the Chinese want and not in their interest.
Last edited by sudeepj on 28 May 2020 07:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 28 May 2020 06:58

ldev wrote:
fanne wrote:Chinese missile forces is the only trump card. They can hit deep and effect Indian population center using shorter range missile. For us to respond in kind (and do not have to, we can hit targets in Tibet using short range missiles), we will have to use IRBM/ICBM which would be many times costlier than SRBM.


Consider the escalation ladder:

Artillery and infantry at the border - both sides

Armor (Indian tanks) vs Chinese helicopter gunships

A preemptive Chinese missile attack on all Indian airfields in the North and East from Avantipur to Tezpur - runway denial being the objective. China has about a 1000 short range ballistic missiles DF-15s and DF-16s so they can keep this up for days or even weeks.

India responds with Brahmos but because of its range it can only reach Chinese targets in Tibet.

Stalemate.

To cause an equivalent amount of pain to China by targeting its primary bases (located in or around population centers) India has to reach the South China Sea to launch ship launched Brahmos missiles. For India and Indians such a war will be a very real experience with damage and destruction around population centers. For China it will be a pinprick on a distant border thousands of kilometers from their centers of commerce, industry and power.

Agni 3, 4 and 5 have the range but are nuclear missiles and limited in numbers so cannot be used for a conventional role.


Exactly the point I was making earlier in the thread. The buffer state allows China to hide behind Tibet. So you have to create a pain point by taking Tibet and holding it or doing something in the SCS. Fighting the war in the Himalayas is intrinsically advantageous to the Chinese. Localizing and restricting the theater is hurting India's interests. This is the reason we should drop the CBM's that are agreed upon and start to define the theaters where we engage the Chinese from an advantageous position. That is accomplished by either taking Tibet from them or engaging them in SCS. This has nothing to do with the economics of war but everything to do with whether you take a look at all the options on your table or simply focus where the Chinese want you to focus.

You can solve logistics issues by emergency acquisitions or ramping up local production. Chinese will not escalate the war, they are trying to coerce and manipulate India into its sphere of influence vs allowing it to engage them in SCS. My recommendation is sign a defense pact with the US for ammo supply and engage them with a game plan to change the theater.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby shaun » 28 May 2020 07:36

As I said earlier , numbers have their own value , from Cruse missiles to ballastic missiles , they can overwhelm our defense anyday . Our piece meal orders are better only to counter pakis . China have invested heavily on their MIL industrial complexes and on their defense forces , playing catch-up with indigenous technologies ( whether they have stolen doesn't matter ) with west , where as we are still importing tanks and assault rifles , even the platforms that are available locally are not ordered in sufficient numbers .

There is no doubt , when the balloon goes up , our armed forces will fight with whatever they have and probably will give a bloody knock to the Chinese , but to sustain the same , we simply don't have the resources.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby ldev » 28 May 2020 08:12

Sravan wrote: This has nothing to do with the economics of war but everything to do with whether you take a look at all the options on your table or simply focus where the Chinese want you to focus.

You can solve logistics issues by emergency acquisitions or ramping up local production. Chinese will not escalate the war, they are trying to coerce and manipulate India into its sphere of influence vs allowing it to engage them in SCS.


Very true and a correct prescription.

Do not focus where the enemy wants you to focus. But focus where you can cause your enemy the most damage.

But I sincerely doubt that anybody in GOI or the armed forces or the assorted think tanks will think along these lines. They will call this audacious, a pipe dream and beyond the capacity of a "poor country" like India. Sad.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 28 May 2020 08:16

ldev wrote:
Sravan wrote: This has nothing to do with the economics of war but everything to do with whether you take a look at all the options on your table or simply focus where the Chinese want you to focus.

You can solve logistics issues by emergency acquisitions or ramping up local production. Chinese will not escalate the war, they are trying to coerce and manipulate India into its sphere of influence vs allowing it to engage them in SCS.


Very true and a correct prescription.

Do not focus where the enemy wants you to focus. But focus where you can cause your enemy the most damage.

But I sincerely doubt that anybody in GOI or the armed forces or the assorted think tanks will think along these lines. They will call this audacious, a pipe dream and beyond the capacity of a "poor country" like India. Sad.


We don't even need to actively fight them. You can obfuscate and hit them covertly through collaborations with Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, Australia, Thailand, Nepal. I think it's time for India to really ramp up defense relationships with these countries and empower them to challenge China.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby ldev » 28 May 2020 08:30

Sravan wrote:
ldev wrote:
Very true and a correct prescription.

Do not focus where the enemy wants you to focus. But focus where you can cause your enemy the most damage.

But I sincerely doubt that anybody in GOI or the armed forces or the assorted think tanks will think along these lines. They will call this audacious, a pipe dream and beyond the capacity of a "poor country" like India. Sad.


We don't even need to actively fight them. You can obfuscate and hit them covertly through collaborations with Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, Australia, Thailand, Nepal. I think it's time for India to really ramp up defense relationships with these countries and empower them to challenge China.


The problem is that 50 years of non alignment has inculcated a deeply held mindset in India that an "alliance" is somehow dirty and distasteful. And even the present GOI is tip toeing around it. If you have a practical mindset you will realize as you have said that India needs an alliance to comprehensively solve it's China problem. Otherwise the border will continue to fester.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Roop » 28 May 2020 08:56

YashG wrote:You've zero Idea about how republicans/democrats function in US.


Oh, I have a better idea than you think I do, and apparently a better idea than you.

You're living in a dreamworld. No one will take sides with China anytime soon.


Really? Check with Nancy Pelosi, the NYT, CNN and MSNBC to see if they agree with you. But all this is coming dangerously close to thread hijacking, and I am not going to respond further on this topic. I stand by what I said.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby yensoy » 28 May 2020 09:00

ldev wrote:Do not focus where the enemy wants you to focus. But focus where you can cause your enemy the most damage.

But I sincerely doubt that anybody in GOI or the armed forces or the assorted think tanks will think along these lines. They will call this audacious, a pipe dream and beyond the capacity of a "poor country" like India. Sad.

Exactly!

We are not thinking of things from a Chinese PoV. We are looking at our own weaknesses and pretending that China has none. Only strengths that emanate from its huge economy and MIC. This isn't helpful and only leads to more dhoti-shiver because on paper China is unstoppable. Things don't work that way in practice - the US is still trying to extricate itself from Afghanistan despite the obvious differences in capability; it had a similar experience in Vietnam decades ago.

So what are Chinese weaknesses? China is a country and society which loves stability. The Chinese economy works on stability - excellent logistics, compliant labour, stable services. The moment those change, the China factory is no longer what it was. And the Chinese factory is what gives the country a huge surplus of money and productive capacity with which to drive its agenda. Their population is rich but also stressed about economic issues with little stomach for a downturn. Remember their social contract with their population is that population works 12 hours a day, 6 days a week and doesn't question the leadership; and in exchange, their needs, wants and future generations are promised a better life - were this social contract to be invalidated, the CPC edifice will collapse.

We would necessarily have to look at economic targets, including their huge shipping fleet. We may even be advised to make it a 2-front war by knocking out Gwadar and reclaiming PoK, at least making the CPEC/KKH permanently unusable by occupying heights and denying access.

Taking out a few runways or the railway line in Tibet is a pinprick for them, which will only embolden them to launch a full-on assault on military targets. Also unless things get really bad, I doubt they will deliberately hit civilian targets.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Deans » 28 May 2020 09:30

Y I Patel wrote:
Deans wrote:Apart from 3rd Infantry division at Leh, we have 8 Mountain division at Dras and 17 Mountain handling North Sikkim, both of which are at altitudes above 10,000 Ft and can be fairly quickly moved as they are in quieter sectors and can in turn be reinforced by mountain divisions in the plains.
Its more important to permanently station more artillery and mechanised forces there.

IIRC during the ongoing IA reorganization into IBGs, one infantry division from 9 corps has been dual tasked to central sector (I.e. HP and U.K.). 6 infantry division has been triple tasked including to China border for a long time now. Other strike corps infantry or RAPIDS divisions might also be freed up if decision is taken to not go on offensive against Pak.

Check Rohit Vats posts and blogs for more details


I agree. My post was more about which acclimatised infantry units can be moved to Eastern Ladakh. Rohit's blog is the best I've seen on the
ORBAT & deployment of the IA.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby ldev » 28 May 2020 09:46

yensoy wrote: Remember their social contract with their population is that population works 12 hours a day, 6 days a week and doesn't question the leadership; and in exchange, their needs, wants and future generations are promised a better life - were this social contract to be invalidated, the CPC edifice will collapse.


Correct.

There is no doubt that on the LAC, India at the present moment has superior forces according to various reports. So this force will hold the line in the event of a Chinese attack.

However the present situation on the LAC is that China has presented India with a fait accompli by occupying an area in 4 different locations, maybe more. In all these locations you had an Indian Claim LIne, and a Chinese claim line and then the LAC somewhere in the middle of these 2 lines. Both forces did not put up camps or fortifications in such areas between the 2 respective claims lines (pending a resolution of the border) but only patrolled there and sometimes got into physical altercations. What China has done now is that it has occupied an area between their claim line and at least the LAC. Reports are murky so it is not clear if they have moved their forces all the way to the Chinese claim line and effectively "taken over" all of the area. What is clear is that some part of the area under dispute has been occupied by the Chinese.

So what is India going to do about it? China has presented us with a fait accompli. Will India go to war to reclaim this area? Or will it rely on negotiations. Reports indicate that all efforts to negotiate to have China revert back to their earlier positions have failed so far in the last month. And the Chinese are now making "nice" diplomatic statements via their Ambassador in Delhi. They can afford to be nice now, because they have got what they wanted on the LAC.

The question is whether the superior Indian force on the border can/will use force to evict the PLA from their present positions? And if does so then the escalation ladder that I wrote about earlier comes into play.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Roop » 28 May 2020 09:54

ldev wrote:The problem is that 50 years of non alignment has inculcated a deeply held mindset in India that an "alliance" is somehow dirty and distasteful. And even the present GOI is tip toeing around it.


Bingo! You have put your finger on one of the greatest psychological hangups of the country / society. I believe Modi, Doval etc. know this very well, but have to (as you say) tip-toe around the problem to get at the obvious solution staring them in the face: an unapologetic and full-fledged alliance with the West. All this signing of agreements (BECA, CISMOA, Son of CISMOA) had to be done really hush-hush, stretching out over many years to avoid Modi / Doval themselves becoming the targets of torrents of gaali-galoch.

If you have a practical mindset you will realize as you have said that India needs an alliance to comprehensively solve it's China problem. Otherwise the border will continue to fester.


The problem is, I think that there are still large numbers of Indians in the decision-making class (neta / babu / mantri types, internet bloggers etc.) who feel deeply insulted at the very notion that India needs allies to achieve its goals. Modi et al know this and have decided (wisely, I think) to try and go around the problem instead of making a frontal assault on it.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby ldev » 28 May 2020 09:58

^^
I am glad that I am not a lone voice who realizes this :)

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby yensoy » 28 May 2020 10:43

Camping out in tents in summer is very different from permanent occupation. Yes there is hope that they will move back to their prior positions, or be forced to move back once winter sets in; but in case they don't then it will be difficult to evict them from these places.
The first thing we will have to do is to counter-occupy till within 100m of their camps and not budge otherwise there is going to be another saga next summer, or the summer after... And it won't be enough to only park at places across from the Chinese, but also in other unguarded frontier areas which are accessible from their side.

In other words, we need to put an end to salami slicing even if the current slice is lost (which I don't believe is the case, but even if it were...).

The LAC needs to be defined and defended by us, because ambiguity has clearly not worked. The message to the Chinese is that we were willing to live with ambiguity which was suiting them but we will now punish them for their aggressive actions by removing all ambiguity.

The other thing is that we need to think differently. If we could occupy the heights overlooking Galwan nalla, then it makes them sitting ducks. Likewise for other river, lake and plain boundaries where we need to command the heights.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Larry Walker » 28 May 2020 10:46

If there are no targets for our SRBM's to hit in Tibet, it means that Chinks have not massed for a war. It is just not possible that PLA is about to invade us and yet our forces don't have juicy enough targets to hit in Tibet. And in today's day-and-age no professional army will attack any civilian target or population.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Deans » 28 May 2020 11:05

Larry Walker wrote:If there are no targets for our SRBM's to hit in Tibet, it means that Chinks have not massed for a war. It is just not possible that PLA is about to invade us and yet our forces don't have juicy enough targets to hit in Tibet. And in today's day-and-age no professional army will attack any civilian target or population.


There are no targets because there is none of the infrastructure required to house thousands of PLA troops in Tibet. We keep dhoti shivering about
our lack of infrastructure, but there is no comment about the PLA's ability to sustain even a division in East ladakh, Their nearest base is at Hotan - which is 800 km by road. See google earth to realise that there is nothing along those 800 km to house large quantities of troops, vehicles, POL, Ammo etc. The last 100 km of that road, where it leaves the highway (in only 2 places) and moves towards the LAC, do not look black topped and represent huge bottlenecks if there are air or artillery strikes on supply convoys.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby shaun » 28 May 2020 11:06

yensoy wrote:Camping out in tents in summer is very different from permanent occupation. Yes there is hope that they will move back to their prior positions, or be forced to move back once winter sets in; but in case they don't then it will be difficult to evict them from these places.
The first thing we will have to do is to counter-occupy till within 100m of their camps and not budge otherwise there is going to be another saga next summer, or the summer after... And it won't be enough to only park at places across from the Chinese, but also in other unguarded frontier areas which are accessible from their side.

In other words, we need to put an end to salami slicing even if the current slice is lost (which I don't believe is the case, but even if it were...).

The LAC needs to be defined and defended by us, because ambiguity has clearly not worked. The message to the Chinese is that we were willing to live with ambiguity which was suiting them but we will now punish them for their aggressive actions by removing all ambiguity.

The other thing is that we need to think differently. If we could occupy the heights overlooking Galwan nalla, then it makes them sitting ducks. Likewise for other river, lake and plain boundaries where we need to command the heights.


Counter occupation should have been done weeks ago if we had the stomach to fight . We are the defender and they are the occupier , this mindset sinks in when you know you can't compete with them . Problem is we have an active border with pakis , where a substantial part of our resources are drained everyday . Maybe we could compete to some extent one to one with Chinese , apart from the lack in resources the paki factor is bogging us down.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Mort Walker » 28 May 2020 11:16

sudeepj wrote:
Added Later: There are too many ifs in your scenarios. Both Sikkim and Arunachal are recognized world over as Indian territory. Check CIA/... or any other international maps if needed. Some thing like this would mean not only the end of every bit of post WW II institutionalization of world politics, but also of permanently alienating India from any Chinese influence.

Post Mao/Zhou/.. and post Deng, Chinese leadership has had very a different point of view. What advantages would accrue to China by conquering Sikkim/Arunachal? Its not like any of the world powers can contest their occupation of Tibet from these areas. Its not like their occupation gets any more validity.

Yes, they will injure Indian armed forces severely in this, but India will survive, recover and be ever more hostile and war like. It will go full nuclear. The noisy bandar log that serve Chinas interests in India today will be crushed with an iron hand. If the govt. does nothing the public will lynch them. There will be no trade with China. This is not what the Chinese want and not in their interest.


1. The PLA can "liberate" Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh with the claim they are freeing it from Indian domination. Spewing the age old crap of not being the same people. It does not matter what a map says. These same maps may say that POK is part of India when it is occupied by the RATS. The rest of world will not care as long as there is no shooting visible to the public.

2. They don't need to conquer or continuously occupy it. Just put up a puppet government after thrashing India where it won't dare attempt to retake it. China has a history of puppets. Tibet, DPRK and Khmer Rouge in Cambodia are good examples. Burma is partly like this today where there is significant Chinese influence.

3. There are 1.38 billion people in India. Any war with a major power like China will wreck the livelihood of hundreds of million. The public will be upset and not care for Sikkim or Arunachal which have a combined population of 2.4 million. Especially when India's traitorous opposition parties will obfuscate the issue.

This incident to should be a BIG wakeup call for India. Domestic production of major weapon systems must take precedent. It will create employment, knowledge base, extract maximum defence preparedness for the same money, instill confidence and national pride. You can not stand up to China by making purchases from 2/3 world powers like Russia and France, or even from the US. Indian leadership is following some nonsense European economic models by sacrificing national defence in the name of budgetary austerity. It doesn't work that way for a major world power. India is not some fcuking Scandinavian country.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby shaun » 28 May 2020 11:32

Army top brass discusses Ladakh situation during commanders conference

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 527212035/

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby manjgu » 28 May 2020 11:38

i would trust Modi Doval & co. to handle this..they have the complete picture of the situation and know whats best..rest all is idle speculation..

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Cain Marko » 28 May 2020 11:51

Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/majorgauravarya/status/1265689011701440512?s=20 ---> Hello @realDonaldTrump

You wanted to mediate in Kashmir. We said no.

Now you want to mediate between China and India. Again, no. We can manage our own affairs. Thank you.

If you want us to mediate between US and China, let us know. Welcome to the neighbourhood.


:-? :roll:
I don't see why not use DTs rambunctious Twitter melee? Response shouldn't be snooty... But a welcome thank you. It should be, at least in the media, used to point out China's historic wrongs and weaknesses and put them on the defensive

This is the time to show some solidarity vs the dlagon and make it real nervous.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby putnanja » 28 May 2020 11:54

manjgu wrote:i would trust Modi Doval & co. to handle this..they have the complete picture of the situation and know whats best..rest all is idle speculation..


Agree. And I also have good confidence in our armed forces and their capabilities and Indian army of 2020 is much different than 1962. And based on changes in last decade, its different than army during Kargil war too , especially in eastern sector.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Cain Marko » 28 May 2020 12:34

fanne wrote:Chinese missile forces is the only trump card. They can hit deep and effect Indian population center using shorter range missile. For us to respond in kind (and do not have to, we can hit targets in Tibet using short range missiles), we will have to use IRBM/ICBM which would be many times costlier than SRBM.

Time to test a few A series...slbms etcetc

Indias response needs to be aggressive, much more so than expected by China. Time to break a few bones, trash buildings and structures. Destroy some infra.

As far as economic and manufacturing deficit is concerned, this is not an issue. India has plenty of options. And such a situation will provide great opportunity to develop a proper MIC. start churning out those lcas in droves.

Chinese manufacturing is dependent on oil in the long run. That oil comes from some very interesting places. India can squeeze and their manufacturing will cry....

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Yagnasri » 28 May 2020 12:53

For those who fear the long war leading to our defeat, have we considered the effect of the long blockade of sea lines and destruction of the merchant shipping of China in IOA? I mean why we are thinking that our Navy will keep quite in the event of war. We have used it during the Kargil effectively and I am sure it will be the first tool to be strategically used in the even of war with China. Plus what about the IAF? We are sure to have the local advantage in the Tibet region which will be a very big factor in our favour.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby nam » 28 May 2020 13:03

A word on Chinese BM threat:

Conventional BM are NOT war winning weapons. Iranians fired 8-10 BM at American bases. It required a high definition image of the base to even find the damage. Houthis fired numerous BM on Saudi airport. What was the result?

BM & CM are glorified 250KG & 900KG bombs, because a fighter cannot deliver it. No one blinks an eye when fighters drop 2000lb bombs, but for some reason BM are to be feared.

Chinis will attack our airbases with BM, sure. We have smart enough to deal with it. How you deal with a fighter dropping 2000lb bomb? You move assets around. Don't keep them in one place.

A BM can hit a pre-determined target. It cannot follow a target.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby YashG » 28 May 2020 13:04

Roop wrote:
Really? Check with Nancy Pelosi, the NYT, CNN and MSNBC to see if they agree with you. But all this is coming dangerously close to thread hijacking, and I am not going to respond further on this topic. I stand by what I said.


I just checked 9 hours ago on Nancy Pelosi & her house. They have sent a China Sanctions bill with 413-1 majority to trump.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/27/house-sends-china-sanctions-bill-to-trumps-desk-as-tensions-escalate.html

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby nam » 28 May 2020 13:07

In other news, we diffused a 40kg VBIED in J&K. The dimmer knew it was coming.

It is end of May, so it is the right when Pak are generally up to something. Monsoon season, so difficult to mount offensive in to Punjab.

I don't know if it was joint, but if the IED had killed, then we are looking at two front deployment, if not two front war.

With our forces deployed in strength on LAC, Pak will be facing reduced strength on LC & IB.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby shaun » 28 May 2020 13:56

Yagnasri wrote:For those who fear the long war leading to our defeat, have we considered the effect of the long blockade of sea lines and destruction of the merchant shipping of China in IOA? I mean why we are thinking that our Navy will keep quite in the event of war. We have used it during the Kargil effectively and I am sure it will be the first tool to be strategically used in the even of war with China. Plus what about the IAF? We are sure to have the local advantage in the Tibet region which will be a very big factor in our favour.
sir how are we supposed to block an international lane , it will affect the whole region

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby shaun » 28 May 2020 13:59

nam wrote:A word on Chinese BM threat:

Conventional BM are NOT war winning weapons. Iranians fired 8-10 BM at American bases. It required a high definition image of the base to even find the damage. Houthis fired numerous BM on Saudi airport. What was the result?

BM & CM are glorified 250KG & 900KG bombs, because a fighter cannot deliver it. No one blinks an eye when fighters drop 2000lb bombs, but for some reason BM are to be feared.

Chinis will attack our airbases with BM, sure. We have smart enough to deal with it. How you deal with a fighter dropping 2000lb bomb? You move assets around. Don't keep them in one place.

A BM can hit a pre-determined target. It cannot follow a target.
BMs are fastest cheaper delivery mechanism against which no defense is there at present

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Sravan » 28 May 2020 14:06

China wants the border problem to linger; it keeps India off balance and prevents India from focusing its attention on Tibet, where China is in deep problem[s].

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/tense-india-china-standoff-himalayan-border-escalate-200527120501581.html

chetak
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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby chetak » 28 May 2020 15:01

Yagnasri wrote:For those who fear the long war leading to our defeat, have we considered the effect of the long blockade of sea lines and destruction of the merchant shipping of China in IOA? I mean why we are thinking that our Navy will keep quite in the event of war. We have used it during the Kargil effectively and I am sure it will be the first tool to be strategically used in the even of war with China. Plus what about the IAF? We are sure to have the local advantage in the Tibet region which will be a very big factor in our favour.



There will be no shooting war, short or long, simply because the hans just cannot afford it.

the confrontation between the two nuclear armed, significant economic powers, both facing the menace of the chinese virus that has already caused a significant slowdown in their economies has multidimensional global repercussions that will hit the hans very much harder than it will India.

Besides, Modi's chair is not at all at risk but xi's neck is surely on the line.

The ripples of such a shooting war, if it ever comes to pass, will have global ramifications that will cause the unravelling of many of the long standing han plans and will embolden many countries to default on their OBOR commitments and "loans".

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby TKiran » 28 May 2020 15:42

. Besides, Modi's chair is not at all at risk but xi's neck is surely on the line.


Just assume that you are average Joe in China. Will you admire a leader who restricted the effect of Wuhan virus to Wuhan itself, with minimal damage to life of Hans ?

China is now without the virus. Xi's popularity is highest in China, and envy for EU and USA. Why you call envy as "Xi is in trouble". It's wet dream of EU and USA if "Xi is in trouble". His power has increased mult-fold, you don't like to accept.

It's the incompetence of EU and USA to control the virus, which they want to blame on " Xi".

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Deans » 28 May 2020 15:49

shaun wrote:
Yagnasri wrote:For those who fear the long war leading to our defeat, have we considered the effect of the long blockade of sea lines and destruction of the merchant shipping of China in IOA? I mean why we are thinking that our Navy will keep quite in the event of war. We have used it during the Kargil effectively and I am sure it will be the first tool to be strategically used in the even of war with China. Plus what about the IAF? We are sure to have the local advantage in the Tibet region which will be a very big factor in our favour.
sir how are we supposed to block an international lane , it will affect the whole region


My book `2022, India's two front war' (Kindle/ Amazon) talks of exactly this point. Among other things I look at how the Chinese merchant trade
can be hit badly, because they are very vulnerable at certain choke-points. It would require more cooperation between friendly navies, but that is
happening and the pace has increased given the current situation. China can't really retaliate because our merchant fleet is negligible in size.
A simpler way to hit China would be to increase tariffs and non tariff barriers like:
- Minimum floor price for imports of certain products (prevents under-invoicing)
- Countries unfriendly to India (i.e. defending terrorism against India, or investing in POK) barred from govt/ PSU tenders.
- data storage in India for non friendly countries (US can get a waiver as part of a trade negotiation).
- Anti dumping duty
-Consumer products have to meet Indian labelling and quality standards.
- Increase duty to the limit allowed by WTO on predominantly Chinese imported products.
- Include HK in goods originating from China.

If we really want to act tough:
- Make China invest in Indian govt bonds or equity, to the extent of their trade deficit
- Liberalised trade regime with Taiwan
- Work with US, Japan, Taiwan to find instances of Chinese dumping /trade cheating (e.g. using Thailand, or B'desh to finish their products and
claim 0 duty imports into India).


This alone can reduce Chinese imports by about $ 20-25 Billion and increase our duty collections by around $ 5 billion (40,000 cr) AND provide
a boost to our manufacturing.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby chetak » 28 May 2020 16:01

Deans wrote:
shaun wrote: sir how are we supposed to block an international lane , it will affect the whole region


My book `2022, India's two front war' (Kindle/ Amazon) talks of exactly this point. Among other things I look at how the Chinese merchant trade
can be hit badly, because they are very vulnerable at certain choke-points. It would require more cooperation between friendly navies, but that is
happening and the pace has increased given the current situation. China can't really retaliate because our merchant fleet is negligible in size.
A simpler way to hit China would be to increase tariffs and non tariff barriers like:
- Minimum floor price for imports of certain products (prevents under-invoicing)
- Countries unfriendly to India (i.e. defending terrorism against India, or investing in POK) barred from govt/ PSU tenders.
- data storage in India for non friendly countries (US can get a waiver as part of a trade negotiation).
- Anti dumping duty
-Consumer products have to meet Indian labelling and quality standards.
- Increase duty to the limit allowed by WTO on predominantly Chinese imported products.
- Include HK in goods originating from China.

If we really want to act tough:
- Make China invest in Indian govt bonds or equity, to the extent of their trade deficit
- Liberalised trade regime with Taiwan
- Work with US, Japan, Taiwan to find instances of Chinese dumping /trade cheating (e.g. using Thailand, or B'desh to finish their products and
claim 0 duty imports into India).


This alone can reduce Chinese imports by about $ 20-25 Billion and increase our duty collections by around $ 5 billion (40,000 cr) AND provide a boost to our manufacturing.


Deans saar,

These are great ideas and workable too.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby chola » 28 May 2020 16:14

TKiran wrote:
. Besides, Modi's chair is not at all at risk but xi's neck is surely on the line.


Just assume that you are average Joe in China. Will you admire a leader who restricted the effect of Wuhan virus to Wuhan itself, with minimal damage to life of Hans ?

China is now without the virus. Xi's popularity is highest in China, and envy for EU and USA. Why you call envy as "Xi is in trouble". It's wet dream of EU and USA if "Xi is in trouble". His power has increased mult-fold, you don't like to accept.

It's the incompetence of EU and USA to control the virus, which they want to blame on " Xi".


Being without the virus will haunt them.

They have 4 vaccines at the testing stage that they can't finish because they don't have enough infected.

And with low infection, they constantly need to be on guard like what they locked down 100m in northern China just as their economic engine is revving up. Countries with a high infection rate now will be better off in the future with vaccines and a higher rate of immunity.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby arshyam » 28 May 2020 16:19

Mort Walker wrote:1. The PLA can "liberate" Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh with the claim they are freeing it from Indian domination. Spewing the age old crap of not being the same people. It does not matter what a map says. These same maps may say that POK is part of India when it is occupied by the RATS. The rest of world will not care as long as there is no shooting visible to the public.

2. They don't need to conquer or continuously occupy it. Just put up a puppet government after thrashing India where it won't dare attempt to retake it. China has a history of puppets. Tibet, DPRK and Khmer Rouge in Cambodia are good examples. Burma is partly like this today where there is significant Chinese influence.

3. There are 1.38 billion people in India. Any war with a major power like China will wreck the livelihood of hundreds of million. The public will be upset and not care for Sikkim or Arunachal which have a combined population of 2.4 million. Especially when India's traitorous opposition parties will obfuscate the issue.

Mort-ji, sorry to say this, but your post betrays a complete lack of understanding of this country and the people who call it home. You are assuming that we will just watch while China does all that you say they would, and our people would be so selfish that they won't want to fight for our border states. Whereas time and again, history has shown otherwise.

It's okay to be apprehensive, but one would appreciate if such fact-free dhoti-shivers were kept to a minimum in order to keep the SNR of the forum at a high level. Also, one is not compelled to post if one doesn't have anything useful to contribute.

Just my 2 paise, hope you take it in the right spirit.
Last edited by arshyam on 28 May 2020 17:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby arshyam » 28 May 2020 16:22

Cain Marko wrote:This is the time to show some solidarity vs the dlagon and make it real nervous.

Won't this be better addressed to DT instead? Why is the onus always on ourselves to show this, demonstrate that, etc?

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby yensoy » 28 May 2020 16:26

Deans wrote:If we really want to act tough:
- Make China invest in Indian govt bonds or equity, to the extent of their trade deficit

Sir, you do realize that this is financially identical to taking a loan from China, right? The only silver linings being that these loans will be denominated in rupees, and at a reasonable interest rate. Not taking away from the other important points you made which I mostly agree with, but I am perplexed as to why requiring China to give us a massive loan will help us in any way.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby Rakesh » 28 May 2020 16:29

Cain Marko wrote:
Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/majorgauravarya/status/1265689011701440512?s=20 ---> Hello @realDonaldTrump

You wanted to mediate in Kashmir. We said no.

Now you want to mediate between China and India. Again, no. We can manage our own affairs. Thank you.

If you want us to mediate between US and China, let us know. Welcome to the neighbourhood.


:-? :roll:
I don't see why not use DTs rambunctious Twitter melee? Response shouldn't be snooty... But a welcome thank you. It should be, at least in the media, used to point out China's historic wrongs and weaknesses and put them on the defensive

This is the time to show some solidarity vs the dlagon and make it real nervous.

Tweets are not mine Saar :) I onlee do cut-and-paste :lol:

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby TKiran » 28 May 2020 16:32

chola wrote:
TKiran wrote:
Just assume that you are average Joe in China. Will you admire a leader who restricted the effect of Wuhan virus to Wuhan itself, with minimal damage to life of Hans ?

China is now without the virus. Xi's popularity is highest in China, and envy for EU and USA. Why you call envy as "Xi is in trouble". It's wet dream of EU and USA if "Xi is in trouble". His power has increased mult-fold, you don't like to accept.

It's the incompetence of EU and USA to control the virus, which they want to blame on " Xi".


Being without the virus will haunt them.

They have 4 vaccines at the testing stage that they can't finish because they don't have enough infected.

And with low infection, they constantly need to be on guard like what they locked down 100m in northern China just as their economic engine is revving up. Countries with a high infection rate now will be better off in the future with vaccines and a higher rate of immunity.


That's another wet dream, come September, you won't find Wuhan Corona virus anywhere in the world. All the American pharma companies will loose all the dollars they poured into to find a vaccine.

Corona virus is a biological weapon, it can last only 10 months. After that, there will be no traces of the virus. That's how it is engineered. The people who want to trace back the origin of the virus to Wuhan lab will be very disappointed as by the time Tredos allows the WHO to start investigations, the virus would be gone, untraceable.

Only Modi and very few know this, remember GT was crying aloud when they came to know that India has hacked into Chinese cyberspace and immediately announced lockdown?

Xi is a very confident man and 10 times more powerful now than before the Wuhan Corona virus outbreak. Only kabab me haddi is Modi of India, that's the reason for agression against India.
Last edited by TKiran on 28 May 2020 16:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India Border Watch: Security and Operations

Postby nam » 28 May 2020 16:40

shaun wrote: BMs are fastest cheaper delivery mechanism against which no defense is there at present


BM are not cheaper. For the amount of explosives they delivery, it is very expensive. If someone thinks China will fire 2000-3000 BM at India in the first hour of conflict, they are delusional.

Nowadays there are winged 2000lb bombs, with range of 100KM available. What defense does anyone have against them?


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