India Border Watch: Security and Operations

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 03 Jun 2020 18:45

I think the timing of this border movement on multiple fronts from Ladakh to Sikkim is being coordinated by Beijing to put pressure on India to back off from moves to solicit international companies to move to India from China because of the virus, to back off from India's position on a full investigation into the origins of the Wuhan virus and to stop the closer coordination/integration of India with the Quad which will inevitably accelerate in the post virus world. These IMO are the real reasons. It has nothing to do with any border road/infrastructure that India is building. I really hope that India is not bullied by this pressure to back off and continues to solicit companies to move to India as well as the virus origin investigation and closer coordination with the Quad. The last will be invaluable in opening up a second front against China in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits.

Bharadwaj · Post by **Bharadwaj** » 03 Jun 2020 19:49

Nitin Gokhale has clearly explained the situation. It is a literal dummies guide to the issue.

http://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status/ ... 9511681024

Karna · Post by **Karna** » 03 Jun 2020 20:01

ldev wrote:I think the timing of this border movement on multiple fronts from Ladakh to Sikkim is being coordinated by Beijing to put pressure on India to back off from moves to solicit international companies to move to India from China because of the virus, to back off from India's position on a full investigation into the origins of the Wuhan virus and to stop the closer coordination/integration of India with the Quad which will inevitably accelerate in the post virus world. These IMO are the real reasons. It has nothing to do with any border road/infrastructure that India is building. I really hope that India is not bullied by this pressure to back off and continues to solicit companies to move to India as well as the virus origin investigation and closer coordination with the Quad. The last will be invaluable in opening up a second front against China in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits.

Movement across multiple fronts from Ladakh to Sikkim would have taken a lot of planning and I doubt this is a reaction to above mentioned pts.

While India may want to attract companies planning to move out, cheen really cannot control the destination. Remember India offers a large captive market.

Officially India hasn't pointed fingers at cheen for the Wuhan Virus. While India has voted for an investigation it's been a part of multi lateral group unlike US and Aus who have called out cheen

Quad has been in existence for more than a decade and while the relationship may get deeper there has been no signs on the ground. For ex Inviting Aus to Malabar exercise.

I think removing of art 370 may have set this in motion. It could also be cheen's ploy to raise nationalism internally or just plain bullying..

This isn't the first instance of cheen doing something like this. It has done this in 2013, 2017 and now...

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 03 Jun 2020 20:53

ldev wrote:I think the timing of this border movement on multiple fronts from Ladakh to Sikkim is being coordinated by Beijing to put pressure on .....

Just a guess,

a) It could be we are making the LAC(at some points) a defined one.
b) We are trying to exercise patrol rights up to our perception. (which we had not doing up to now due to logistics or stopped during kargil and subsequent)
c) We are showing strength and not allowing the Chinese patrols to fully reach their line of perception.

It could be the combination of all the above plus the typical Chinese bullying meeting the real steal(IA) now. Good to see we are going ahead with road development with full speed. Now, the Chinese has two option. Physically use the force to stop the construction using their army(as an insurance for that IA is deployed all along with 1:6 ration).

Its reassuring to know we are not getting bogged down by the schemes of China in the infra development in border. Both the countries are taking a big risk by putting the men eye ball to eye ball. We like it or not, a small trigger may start a mini war in the border. If it does not happen and got diffused - Good. If a border skirmish/war happens, people should stand behind the govt like a rock and support the army/govt for the risk/boldness they took in guarding the border.

Personally i feel, even if situation diffused in LAC, we should gain something in LOC so as to not lose the once in life time opportunity( as almost all countries are busy with their own problems and economy).

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 Jun 2020 21:01

an old picture but...........

pappu looks absolutely frozen, like a deer caught in the headlights

Karna · Post by **Karna** » 03 Jun 2020 21:09

By d-atis
High resolution satellite images via @Planetlabs & @AuroraIntel of the #PangongTso sector improve visualization of the stand off between #India-#China #IndiaChinaStandoff https://t.co/reVNBLvpMJ

Clear camps possibly between Finger 6& 7

Edit : YT video of Nitin Gokhale is very insightful.
So the question is : Loss of IA ability to no longer been able to do foot patrol beyond Finger 4 is loss of Indian territory since our perception of LAC is till Finger 8.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Jun 2020 21:31

Karna wrote:
By d-atis
High resolution satellite images via @Planetlabs & @AuroraIntel of the #PangongTso sector improve visualization of the stand off between #India-#China #IndiaChinaStandoff https://t.co/reVNBLvpMJ
Clear camps possibly between Finger 6& 7

Edit : YT video of Nitin Gokhale is very insightful.
So the question is : Loss of IA ability to no longer been able to do foot patrol beyond Finger 4 is loss of Indian territory since our perception of LAC is till Finger 8.

My understanding is that until Doklam, India did not patrol beyond finger 4. It was only recently - once we got a road upto finger 4 and the
ITBP camp at finger 3, that we have started patrolling upto finger 6. The Chinese have always had patrols upto finger 4 and even closer into
Indian territory. It is the intersecting patrols that cause a problem.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 03 Jun 2020 21:32

am not war mongering here but given our numerical superiority should not there be atleast one time where we go out and surround these camps and hold them hostage and fight off a fire fight, there needs to be some antibiotic for this kind of repeated infection(depsam, doklam etc) so that we dont have this infection atleast for another 20 years and may be now is the time given everyone is in terrible shape on the economy side.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Jun 2020 21:32

chetak wrote:an old picture but...........

pappu looks absolutely frozen, like a deer caught in the headlights

[

Isn't he always ?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Jun 2020 21:36

suryag wrote:am not war mongering here but given our numerical superiority should not there be atleast one time where we go out and surround these camps and hold them hostage and fight off a fire fight, there needs to be some antibiotic for this kind of repeated infection(depsam, doklam etc) so that we dont have this infection atleast for another 20 years and may be now is the time given everyone is in terrible shape on the economy side.

What we could look at doing is reclaim some of the land lost during the UPA regime, by using Chinese style tactics. I have long felt there should be an division deployed in the South East Ladakh region between Chushul and Demchok - if that is done we should assert our territorial rights there. Reclaiming part of the Demchok region - with flat ground upto the Chinese base (and only large settlement in the region) of Ngari would be a nightmare for the Chinese. Then we can resolve with Chai-Biskoot, major / major-general level talks etc.

Karna · Post by **Karna** » 03 Jun 2020 21:43

suryag wrote:am not war mongering here but given our numerical superiority should not there be atleast one time where we go out and surround these camps and hold them hostage and fight off a fire fight, there needs to be some antibiotic for this kind of repeated infection(depsam, doklam etc) so that we dont have this infection atleast for another 20 years and may be now is the time given everyone is in terrible shape on the economy side.

That will be the last outcome.. there is a Meeting at Lt.Gen level on 6th June . So let's see what's the outcome of that meeting is.

However in my view, our perception of LAC is at Finger 8 which is clearly articulated by Col S. Dinny and not been able to access it is a loss of territory since it effectively re organises the LAC to Finger 4 which we control physically.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 03 Jun 2020 21:44

Bharadwaj wrote:Nitin Gokhale has clearly explained the situation. It is a literal dummies guide to the issue.

http://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status/ ... 9511681024

Yes, everyone should watch the interview with Col. Dinny also. Things will be very clear.

khan · Post by **khan** » 03 Jun 2020 22:03

SSridhar wrote:
Bharadwaj wrote:Nitin Gokhale has clearly explained the situation. It is a literal dummies guide to the issue.

http://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status/ ... 9511681024
Yes, everyone should watch the interview with Col. Dinny also. Things will be very clear.

I saw this (all ~30 mins with no skipping), it clarified what the situation used to be 3 years ago. Doesn’t clarify what is happening now.

According to Col Dinny, Chinese were fine with construction in Indian territory, but that seems to have changed.

Why do we have all this mobilization then? Something must have changed.

Sumair · Post by **Sumair** » 03 Jun 2020 22:06

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG2w3pWyYzQ
Very interesting discussion. Listen 26 minutes on wards, one of the penalists is saying that Chinese have already agreed to a withdrawl.

Karna · Post by **Karna** » 03 Jun 2020 22:46

khan wrote:
SSridhar wrote: Yes, everyone should watch the interview with Col. Dinny also. Things will be very clear.
I saw this (all ~30 mins with no skipping), it clarified what the situation used to be 3 years ago. Doesn’t clarify what is happening now.

According to Col Dinny, Chinese were fine with construction in Indian territory, but that seems to have changed.

Why do we have all this mobilization then? Something must have changed.

Cheen have built what looks like temporary shelters between fingers 6&7 and effectively stopped Indian Patrolling as per the new open source satellite maps available. This wasn't the case earlier.

Also by Abhijit Iyer
Pary 3 of my #LadakhTension series. There is a significant build up of Chinese armour on their side of Gogra (1.5 battalions, 12 howitzers, 21 BMP type vehicles). In Pangong new images reveal a minor consolidation of Chinese positions east of Foxhole Point
https://t.co/sITHD2TSBw

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 Jun 2020 22:48

Deans wrote:
Karna wrote:
Clear camps possibly between Finger 6& 7

Edit : YT video of Nitin Gokhale is very insightful.
So the question is : Loss of IA ability to no longer been able to do foot patrol beyond Finger 4 is loss of Indian territory since our perception of LAC is till Finger 8.
My understanding is that until Doklam, India did not patrol beyond finger 4. It was only recently - once we got a road upto finger 4 and the
ITBP camp at finger 3, that we have started patrolling upto finger 6. The Chinese have always had patrols upto finger 4 and even closer into
Indian territory. It is the intersecting patrols that cause a problem.

per a video in one of the threads, it looks like both sides use the same narrow tracks to patrol on foot beyond finger 4.

though the intersecting patrols may be more than just a few, only a very small number ends up in actual physical confrontations as per Col Dinny who is speaking in the video and has actually commanded troops in that specific area.

the rest of the intersecting patrols seem to peacefully pass by each other without any manner of incident.

the chinese are now badly spooked with being blamed for the wuhan virus related events around the world where they are being shown in a bad light and they don't want a jugalbandhi between the US and India, especially on their borders by an increasingly assertive India who is just not willing to back down as was so very usual during the previous regime.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 03 Jun 2020 22:56

chetak wrote:
Deans wrote:
My understanding is that until Doklam, India did not patrol beyond finger 4. It was only recently - once we got a road upto finger 4 and the
ITBP camp at finger 3, that we have started patrolling upto finger 6. The Chinese have always had patrols upto finger 4 and even closer into
Indian territory. It is the intersecting patrols that cause a problem.
per a video in one of the threads, it looks like both sides use the same narrow tracks to patrol on foot beyond finger 4.

though the intersecting patrols may be more than just a few, only a very small number ends up in actual physical confrontations as per Col Dinny who is speaking in the video and has actually commanded troops in that specific area.

the rest of the intersecting patrols seem to peacefully pass by each other without any manner of incident.

I think as someone posted above, that is an old (3 years?) narrative.

Today's ground reality seems to be different. China is not going to back off. They will come up with a new reality - grab maybe even a furlong or two. This is what happened in Tibet and the SCS.

India needs to take a more proactive position. As an example, IF indeed the Chinese have built a few tents past Finger 8, then India needs to do so past Finger 4 too (and be prepared to supply them). In addition, give Nepal an ultimatum too. Else this creep will keep moving forward. One step at a time.

And, no more meeting between Modi and Xi, please.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 Jun 2020 22:59

NRao wrote:
chetak wrote:
per a video in one of the threads, it looks like both sides use the same narrow tracks to patrol on foot beyond finger 4.

though the intersecting patrols may be more than just a few, only a very small number ends up in actual physical confrontations as per Col Dinny who is speaking in the video and has actually commanded troops in that specific area.

the rest of the intersecting patrols seem to peacefully pass by each other without any manner of incident.
I think as someone posted above, that is an old (3 years?) narrative.

Today's ground reality seems to be different. China is not going to back off. They will come up with a new reality - grab maybe even a furlong or two. This is what happened in Tibet and the SCS.

India needs to take a more proactive position. As an example, IF indeed the Chinese have built a few tents past Finger 8, then India needs to do so past Finger 4 too (and be prepared to supply them). In addition, give Nepal an ultimatum too. Else this creep will keep moving forward. One step at a time.

And, no more meeting between Modi and Xi, please.

yes, the video is not current.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 04 Jun 2020 01:44

Karna wrote:
By d-atis
High resolution satellite images via @Planetlabs & @AuroraIntel of the #PangongTso sector improve visualization of the stand off between #India-#China #IndiaChinaStandoff https://t.co/reVNBLvpMJ
Clear camps possibly between Finger 6& 7

Edit : YT video of Nitin Gokhale is very insightful.
So the question is : Loss of IA ability to no longer been able to do foot patrol beyond Finger 4 is loss of Indian territory since our perception of LAC is till Finger 8.

Yup if they have already built a road within our "perceived" that means we are at a massive disadvantage enforcing our claim.

BTW the lake itself although narrow and shallow at many places reaches all the way to G219, might be a perfect palace for amphibious action, has this been considered before?

khan · Post by **khan** » 04 Jun 2020 02:34

I think the end game is to wait them out. Once it guard is down (maybe in the middle of winter), send 2-300 people over with hammers and crowbars to demolish whatever they have built. Maybe even dig up that road from Finger 4 to Finger 8.

Without a road, India can’t build anything there or hold any territory.

nam · Post by **nam** » 04 Jun 2020 02:52

I don't get it why we haven't mounted a similar incursion somewhere else. The LAC is 3000+ km long.

khan · Post by **khan** » 04 Jun 2020 03:59

nam wrote:I don't get it why we haven't mounted a similar incursion somewhere else. The LAC is 3000+ km long.

I think there might be a shortage places along the LOC where, India enjoys overwhelming logistical advantage over the Chinese (to the point where India has a road and China has no road).

The only reason China is able to make camp between Finger 4 and Finger 8 is because of that road they build during Kargil, while Indian soldiers have to walk on that footpath by the cliff around finger 4.

Davidrock · Post by **Davidrock** » 04 Jun 2020 06:46

With the information available till date in the public domain, 4 June 2020, I am collating it.

1. Col Dinny : Area between finger 4-8 is grey area. IA Patrols were conducted till fingre 8, even though the chinese had constructed road till finger 4.

2. Col Dinny : Our road is till the ITBP base between finger 3-4.

3. Col Dinny : Some part between finger 3-4 is too narrorw and there is no road. IA patrols on foot from finger 4-8, since we cant drive beyond finger that narrow area. PLA patrol till finger 4 on motorable road.

4. Abhijit Mitra: Assumes finger 4 is LAC, since chinese construction beyond that point. Also LAC as per google maps, from outside India show finger 4 as LAC.

>> Abhijit wrongly assumes that finger 4 is our LAC, it is actually the chinese LAC/CCL and in this context says that there is no incursion. He also goes on to say that there are rapid incursions from both sides. He is probably watching the patrols which are probably still going on. However, we dont know how deep or if they are till finger 8.

As per geo location, he also says the area where the chinese suv related incident happened is to the west of finger 4. This is of serious concern because this is our area outside of the grey area. The incident probably happened to the east of the narror cliff (west of finger 4) where there is no Indian road.

As per OSINT, chinese boats are moored near finger 4, which means they are firmly in control till finger 4.

With all this info, it appears that we were patrolling finger 4-8 until recently, though chinese had built their roads there in 1999. Chinese probably deployed repidly between finger 4-8, taking advantage of their roads and engaged ITBP patrol pary and injured them.

5. Lt Gen DS Hooda: 70-80 Soldiers injured.

>> Since a partrol party may not contain 70-80 soldiers, I assume that reinforcements were sent after first scuffle, and the reinforcement party was also attacked by chinese numerical superiority between finger 4-8.

6. Ajai Shukla: Chinese troop buildup in our area.

>> All his irrresponsible comments not withstanding, he may be partially right. But in his debate with Abhijit, he could not give an important fact that our patrols were till finger 8. All of Abijit's claims have to be taken with the now known knowledge that he does not know where the Indian LAC is ! Hence be may be wrong in Gogra and Galwan too.

I have been reading for about 20 years that chinese are building roads for rapid deployment. Yet, successive Indian governments have failed to build infrastructure in forward areas.
I wonder if we have any infra in the grey area, where we can drive from our side, and they patrol on foot. If we have then we should leverage those areas to do the same.

Irrespective of Infra, I am sure there will be areas where we have advantage. We need to deploy there permanently, like siachen. If there is a limited war so be it, we are not afraid of sacrificing our lives for India.

khan · Post by **khan** » 04 Jun 2020 07:11

IMO Finger 8-4 was lost when the Chinese built that road. The only way to get it back is to demolish that road.

Maybe sneak 1000 people in there when there is some natural disaster or weather phenomenon (Snowstorm) on the Chinese side, dig up that road and that new base between finger 4 and 8.

Essentially, just like the Chinese took advantage of Kargil, take advantage of some favorable moment in time and make a move.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 04 Jun 2020 08:06

Davidrock wrote:With the information available till date in the public domain, 4 June 2020, I am collating it.

1. Col Dinny : Area between finger 4-8 is grey area. IA Patrols were conducted till fingre 8, even though the chinese had constructed road till finger 4.

I haven't seen this interview yet, but does he give a timeline of when this was? Does he mention till what point did the Chinese patrol?

Davidrock wrote:2. Col Dinny : Our road is till the ITBP base between finger 3-4.

Not anymore, if you look at Google satellite view, you can make out a kachcha un-metalled(?) road going beyond the ITBP base, all the way up to the foxhole on Finger 4, and ends a few hundred meters short of the southern most point on the north shore (33°43'36.8"N 78°45'41.8"E). Beyond this, the options are: either we need to use explosives and carve out space for a road from the cliff (big no-no right next to the LAC) or reclaim land from the lake edge, or simply cut across the ridge. The latter is perhaps the best option, what we had been doing for our patrols beyond Finger 4 (and conversely, what the Chinese did during their patrols). But I don't see a motorable track over the cliff, whereas there is a kachcha road on the side of the cliff going to Sirijap. So it does not look like either side can drive across Finger 4.

Davidrock wrote:4. Abhijit Mitra: Assumes finger 4 is LAC, since chinese construction beyond that point. Also LAC as per google maps, from outside India show finger 4 as LAC.

>> Abhijit wrongly assumes that finger 4 is our LAC, it is actually the chinese LAC/CCL and in this context says that there is no incursion. He also goes on to say that there are rapid incursions from both sides. He is probably watching the patrols which are probably still going on. However, we dont know how deep or if they are till finger 8.

Finger 8 is the international border, as we see it. LAC is indeed Finger 4. Since it is a line of "control", it could have moved over time, and maybe people like Col Dinny would know better, of course. But going by the Chinese infra build up between finger 4-8, including their camp at Sirijap (they don't seem to be recent), the LAC has been at Finger 4 for a while.

As I understand it, LAC does not mean both sides did not patrol beyond it - both sides patrol up to their respective claim lines. What's not clear at Pangong is: how far did we patrol, say last year, compared to now, and similarly for the Chinese. I'd assume that if we are not allowed to patrol up to Finger 8 but were doing so till last year, conversely the Chinese also are not
allowed to patrol up whichever finger their claim line is at.

Davidrock wrote:As per geo location, he also says the area where the chinese suv related incident happened is to the west of finger 4. This is of serious concern because this is our area outside of the grey area. The incident probably happened to the east of the narror cliff (west of finger 4) where there is no Indian road.

The Print article images are not that conclusive - maybe it is just that the resolution is not good enough. But the source image he is using shows some sort of a glacial drain into the lake (the light brown patch to the left of the vehicles in the background), which is not seen in the other two images. There are many such spots along the north shore, east of finger 4 as well and they are visible from satellite imagery. Also, consider the fact that the video showed the Chinese vehicle on an unmetalled road, and there being no motorable (even un-metalled) road across Finger 4 (going by sat pics) - there is a chance of this happening east of Finger 4 as well.

Be that as it may, what is the Chinese perception of the border - were they patrolling west of Finger 4 up to some location? The way I see it, both sides have asserted control at finger 4 and neither can go beyond it now. Sure, we can call it a loss, but it is also a loss for them.

Davidrock wrote:With all this info, it appears that we were patrolling finger 4-8 until recently, though chinese had built their roads there in 1999. Chinese probably deployed repidly between finger 4-8, taking advantage of their roads and engaged ITBP patrol pary and injured them.

Once again, the devil's in the details - how recent was "recent", and till where did the Chinese patrol?

samirdiw · Post by **samirdiw** » 04 Jun 2020 08:19

As long as we keep on defending we will keep on losing territory. Has there been any exceptions in history for states that act this way?

What will it take for India (besides attitude) to capture the below in the following order?
1. Territory upto Yarlung Tsangpo
2. Lhasa
3. Tibet (per Chinese)
4. Tibet (per Tibetians)

Shouldn't it be expected for the IA to have created plans for these and run simulations? We are not surprised right that Chinese army would have created similar plans on their side for capturing ladakh, sikkim, arunachal then why wouldn't/shouldn't we plan to capture and hold land on their side

It should be equally difficult for India/China to hold territory half way through Tibet. The distance from China proper (outside historical tibet/plains) is close to 3000km. This is approx the same distance or more than someone coming from Southern India (Bangalore/Salem) to the Chinese border (with worse terrain in between). It should have been impossible for the Chinese to hold the border. Imagine we we had to constantly send forces from that far away to man the borders which is what China is managing to do. What can we do to turn the tide and meet the Chinese half way in historical Tibet? How about a thought experiment here in BR?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 04 Jun 2020 08:31

khan wrote:IMO Finger 8-4 was lost when the Chinese built that road. The only way to get it back is to demolish that road.

Maybe sneak 1000 people in there when there is some natural disaster or weather phenomenon (Snowstorm) on the Chinese side, dig up that road and that new base between finger 4 and 8.

Essentially, just like the Chinese took advantage of Kargil, take advantage of some favorable moment in time and make a move.

The Chinese resurfaced the road you mention during the Kargil episode. India should have destroyed it then. Today it is The Norm. It may be too late for that.

Today, whatever the Chinese have built, since last summer, needs to be destroyed. Else that will be the new norm.

China has - as usual - prepared the plan very well. No matter what India does, they will say India has become a pawn of the US. Does not matter what India does. Uness India is prepared to take a rather large economic hit, I do not see this noose being loosened.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 04 Jun 2020 08:47

1) the road was built during kargil 1999 till finger 4... IA patroll(ing) till f 8 post kargil at least till col dinny was CO....so road was not an obstacle for IA to patrol till f 8. we dont know whats the situation as of today?? 2) in the galwan valley pic...the IA/PLA seem to be inside the valley not at the mouth of galwan where it meets shyok ( as suggested by shooklaw) .if the story abt PLA damming galwan is true, is it to release water at one go and damage the IA bridge over galwan. Its not hard to dam the galwan which atleast in the pic looks to be a big nullah only. not sure though..

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 04 Jun 2020 09:01

In 1962 India lost Aksai Chin, an area of Ladakh which is 43,000 sq km, the size of Switzerland. Think about that, losing an area equal to a entire country in Europe. 58 years later China is still nibbling away at Indian land without any serious repercussions from India. Just some chai biskoot between Modi-Xi or between the Lt. Generals this coming Saturday.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 04 Jun 2020 09:17

I agree that the road is not an obstacle. The obstacle is in ND.

The resurfacing of that road is the latest in a sequel that started with Aksai Chin - where, as we all know, not even a blade of grass grows. The carpet that China has rolled out India has to roll it up again. Aksai Chin is the goal. Either take it all back - not going to happen. Or start rolling back events one by one - the most probable solution. It is like playing a movie backward.

Focus on Aksai Chin (or even Tibet) and make decisions, is what I would like to happen.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 04 Jun 2020 09:26

NRao wrote:I agree that the road is not an obstacle. The obstacle is in ND.

The resurfacing of that road is the latest in a sequel that started with Aksai Chin - where, as we all know, not even a blade of grass grows. The carpet that China has rolled out India has to roll it up again. Aksai Chin is the goal. Either take it all back - not going to happen. Or start rolling back events one by one - the most probable solution. It is like playing a movie backward.

Focus on Aksai Chin (or even Tibet) and make decisions, is what I would like to happen.

Deja Vu?? With the discussion on the forum.....

Excerpt from an India Today article on the 55th anniversary of the start of the 1962 war:

Skirmishes continued throughout the first half of 1962. But, the Indian think tank was not fully convinced that China would go to war with India. They believed that China would engage in small skirmishes as it was not in a position to wage a full-fledged war.

Major General JS Dhillon, who later played a major role in 1965 war with Pakistan, had said in September 1962 that "a few rounds fired at the Chinese would cause them to run away".

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 04 Jun 2020 09:36

ldev wrote:In 1962 India lost Aksai Chin, an area of Ladakh which is 43,000 sq km, the size of Switzerland. Think about that, losing an area equal to a entire country in Europe. 58 years later China is still nibbling away at Indian land without any serious repercussions from India. Just some chai biskoot between Modi-Xi or between the Lt. Generals this coming Saturday.

95% of Aksai Chin was lost well before 1962. The Chinese highway running through it was completed in 1959. The actual gains for the Chinese in 1962 were relatively small - between their claim line and the posts along a line we were occupying from 1959 onwards. The largest action in ladakh in 62 involved a single infantry company (13 Kumaon) at Rezang La.

khan · Post by **khan** » 04 Jun 2020 09:40

NRao wrote:The Chinese resurfaced the road you mention during the Kargil episode. India should have destroyed it then. Today it is The Norm. It may be too late for that.

Today, whatever the Chinese have built, since last summer, needs to be destroyed. Else that will be the new norm.

China has - as usual - prepared the plan very well. No matter what India does, they will say India has become a pawn of the US. Does not matter what India does. Uness India is prepared to take a rather large economic hit, I do not see this noose being loosened.

The main thing that matters is IA’s *perception* of the LAC. If IA keeps patrolling until Finger 8, they will keep the claim alive and that new camp will mean as little or as much as that finger 4-8 road.

Also, if you remember last week there was a video that was “leaked” which showed IA (or was it ITBF) beating the tar out of some Chinese soldier and damaging their hummer clone. This has now assumed new significance for me.

Because no Vehicle can go past finger 4, this had to have happened between finger 4 and 8. So in-spite of the Chinese having the advantage of a metaled road between finger 4 and 8, the “real” message being telegraphed with the video is, IA/ITBF is still patrolling until finger 8 and giving a good account for themselves.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 04 Jun 2020 09:41

Deans wrote:
ldev wrote:In 1962 India lost Aksai Chin, an area of Ladakh which is 43,000 sq km, the size of Switzerland. Think about that, losing an area equal to a entire country in Europe. 58 years later China is still nibbling away at Indian land without any serious repercussions from India. Just some chai biskoot between Modi-Xi or between the Lt. Generals this coming Saturday.
95% of Aksai Chin was lost well before 1962. The Chinese highway running through it was completed in 1959. The actual gains for the Chinese in 1962 were relatively small - between their claim line and the posts along a line we were occupying from 1959 onwards. The largest action in ladakh in 62 involved a single infantry company (13 Kumaon) at Rezang La.

Thanks for pointing that out. Does it make a difference? Chou en Lai proposed an exchange of Arunachal Pradesh(then NEFA) in exchange for Ladakh. Nehru refused. That I believe was during the Tibet uprising in 1959. When Nehru refused China just walked in and took it over from 1959 to 1962, all 43,000 sq km of it.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 04 Jun 2020 09:44

khan wrote:
NRao wrote:
The main thing that matters is IA’s *perception* of the LAC. If IA keeps patrolling until Finger 8, they will keep the claim alive and that new camp will mean as little or as much as that finger 4-8 road.

Also, if you remember last week there was a video that was “leaked” which showed IA (or was it ITBF) beating the tar out of some Chinese soldier and damaging their hummer clone. This has now assumed new significance for me.

Because no Vehicle can go past finger 4, this had to have happened between finger 4 and 8. So in-spite of the Chinese having the advantage of a metaled road between finger 4 and 8, the “real” message being telegraphed is IA/ITBF is still patrolling until finger 8 and giving a good account for themselves.

My perception is that "now", at the present moment,the Chinese are preventing any Indian patrols east of Finger 4. That is what has created the present crisis.

The metaled road runs west from Finger 8 upto Finger 4. West of Finger 4 there is no metal road. The video where the Chinese vehicle was being attacked was on a dirt road with stones.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 04 Jun 2020 09:45

khan wrote:
NRao wrote:The Chinese resurfaced the road you mention during the Kargil episode. India should have destroyed it then. Today it is The Norm. It may be too late for that.

Today, whatever the Chinese have built, since last summer, needs to be destroyed. Else that will be the new norm.

China has - as usual - prepared the plan very well. No matter what India does, they will say India has become a pawn of the US. Does not matter what India does. Uness India is prepared to take a rather large economic hit, I do not see this noose being loosened.
The main thing that matters is IA’s *perception* of the LAC. If IA keeps patrolling until Finger 8, they will keep the claim alive and that new camp will mean as little or as much as that finger 4-8 road.

Also, if you remember last week there was a video that was “leaked” which showed IA (or was it ITBF) beating the tar out of some Chinese soldier and damaging their hummer clone. This has now assumed new significance for me.

Because no Vehicle can go past finger 4, this had to have happened between finger 4 and 8. So in-spite of the Chinese having the advantage of a metaled road between finger 4 and 8, the “real” message being telegraphed is IA/ITBF is still patrolling until finger 8 and giving a good account for themselves.

Khan Saheb, if you want to deal with bread crumbs - road resurfacing, tents, Finger x and Finger y, that is fine. I really do not care about Fingers. Roll each one back. Not ASAP.

I think I am done. Thx.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 04 Jun 2020 09:49

NRao wrote:
Khan Saheb, if you want to deal with bread crumbs - road resurfacing, tents, Finger x and Finger y, that is fine. I really do not care about Fingers. Roll each one back. Not ASAP.

I think I am done. Thx.

NRao,

Agree,India has to occupy either Aksai Chin or any other area of equivalent size, 43,000 sq km and then negotiate.

khan · Post by **khan** » 04 Jun 2020 09:57

ldev wrote:
khan wrote:
My perception is that "now", at the present moment,the Chinese are preventing any Indian patrols east of Finger 4. That is what has created the present crisis.

The metaled road runs west from Finger 8 upto Finger 4. West of Finger 4 there is no metal road. The video where the Chinese vehicle was being attacked was on a dirt road with stones.

Wasn’t aware of that. If that is the case & the status quo cannot be reestablished diplomatically, then an escalation is in order.

Karna · Post by **Karna** » 04 Jun 2020 11:19

Interesting view point

CommandEleven
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India-China standoff: Indian Options on Current Ladakh Situation
By Reporting Desk -June 3, 20201679 0
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CommandEleven is pleased to present an analysis written by Major General Mian Nadeem Ijaz (Retired), former Director General – Military Intelligence in the Pakistan Army.

Indian Options on Current Ladakh Situation

The Indians have created the present Ladakh crisis by their belligerent behaviour in the region since Modi’s re-election last year. India has tried to treat China as if it is one of the SAARC countries. The open threats to CPEC (China’s jewel in its OBOR vision) because it is running through Pakistan’s NAs & the abolishment of article 370/35A for IOJ&K with bifurcation of Kashmir & Ladakh into Union territories(with ramifications for Askai Chin area) has been seen very seriously by China.

The Chinese are prudently extending the perimeter of security for CPEC (by moving onto Shyok river & India’s Sub-Sector North through Galwan valley) & also ensuring that no envelopment move can germinate from western side of Askai Chin which can threaten the Western Highway from Tibet to China.

The following are India’s options in order of priority:

Negotiations to save face like done by China at Doklam & return of Chinese troops to LAC. Some curtailment of road making (by India) to placate China & claiming it as peaceful resolution.
Saving face by limited escalatory response like flights by helicopters, show of force through troop build up and firing(without causing Chinese casualties) along LAC incursion points. Then using Russia (to convince China) to deescalate situation and stabilising LAC.
Military response to restore status quo or push Chinese back at one or two points of incursion, the Galwan Valley being priority. Based on assumption that Trump will openly come out in India’s diplomatic and logistic support. However, this will only be done if build up of about two division strength takes place in Galwan valley & finger areas 3 to 8 in Pangong lake.
Rider clauses:

India will not go to UN as it means internationalising the IOJ&K dispute by India itself.
Pakistan will be pressurised by U.S. & its money lenders like IMF/WB etc to remain out of the fray (like in 1962). Whether it is possible in present environment is another issue.
Whatever additional Indian troops move into the area, they are now there to stay – whichever way the situation plays out. Both China & Pakistan will now have to factor in this aspect for the future

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 04 Jun 2020 12:21

khan wrote:
ldev wrote:The metaled road runs west from Finger 8 upto Finger 4. West of Finger 4 there is no metal road. The video where the Chinese vehicle was being attacked was on a dirt road with stones.
Wasn’t aware of that. If that is the case & the status quo cannot be reestablished diplomatically, then an escalation is in order.

Nope, I'd suggest to see for yourself on Google earth. All the images are recent (2020 vintage), and note the contrast between how the road surface appears on our side up to the ITBP camp at Finger 4, and the road on the eastern side of Finger 4.

The Chinese road does not look like a metal road, or even a concrete one - a properly finished road would have some signs of culverts, bridges, causeways, etc. We can see these on our road up to finger 4 (look for the frequent white patches - they are concrete causeways to let the water drain. The 2017 road construction video I shared a few pages back also shows them in close-up). The road east of Khurnak camp at the end of Finger 8 (33.763005N, 78.990581E) has some such signs. To some extent, I could see some signs of permanence on the road up to the Sirijap camp at the end of Finger 6 (33°44'28.1"N 78°52'35.8"E). But west of this point, the road is definitely kachcha and is only a dirt track. Heck, we can even see signs of water overflowing/washing off the dirt track (see at 33°44'15"N, 78°47'59"E and 33°44'50"N, 78°50'52"E). The only part where it appears to be a road is on the eastern edge of the Finger 4 fox hole just before the u-turn point at 33°43'11"N, 78°45'48" - it's perhaps sheltered from the elements there are there appears to be no river/glacier draining into the lake. But even here, it does not appear like any sort of metalled surface.

Now, if after a close inspection and comparison with our road, anyone still maintains that the Chinese road is metaled, it only speaks to their quality, I guess