China Watch Thread-I

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Vriksh
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Vriksh » 07 May 2015 02:15

An interesting take on "fearlessness/recklessness" of Chinese

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Quora Post on Chinese Recklessness

Excerpts:

Many years ago when I first visited China I saw a woman with two bags full of groceries absent mindedly about to cross the road while a gigantic truck was barrelling down at full speed. Before I could utter "oh my gawwd!" a little girl grabbed the woman, pulled her off of the street, and with tears in her eyes started berating her mother about how she almost walked into a speeding truck. The mother was completely unfazed and kind of ignored her sobbing child as she crossed the street (this time safely) once more.


I came across a gap on the mountainside that had a plank of wood over it. My brothers and I decided "We've already gotten some great vistas, let's not risk plummeting to our death crossing that". Immediately afterwards a Chinese father and mother (wearing a blazer and a sun dress respectively) stomped across. Their little daughter stopped and refused to cross though, she recognized that a plank of wood is not that stable. Her parents then made fun of her for being scared.


When those reckless parents were younger, they were living through the most crazy times of mainland China filled with political upheaval. And then their parents lived through even crazier times of patriotic rampaging and beating up any adults that pissed them off. Now they are the adults with kids and grandkids.


Take Away Quote:
The closer a Chinese generation is to the Mao era, the less they fear death.


Moral of the story is that Chinese leadership and Mentality has an inherent Recklessness/Fearlessness that has been forged in the fires of the Great March in this they are not unlike the Jihadis of Islam who prefer to die and take others down with them.

The Younger Chinese are not as reckless (remains to be seen) since they have only seen more stability. India needs to see off the Mao Era Premier Xi and Most of the Older PLA sabre rattlers. The younger crowd though brainwashed is less likely to commit suicide by supporting and Nuclearizing Pakistan and other unstable nations.

The Youth of India has to connect to the Youth of China and lead them away from China is in Danger == Islam is in Danger equalitis. The interesting part is that of all Nations only China has the Balls to Shackle Islam and not bat an eyelid to any uproar. If the Islamic act uppity then they are re-educated in concentration camps and no news leaks out.

Neshant
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Neshant » 11 May 2015 11:39

China To Build Military Base In Africa Next To Critical Oil Transit Choke Point

One year ago China was well on its way to marking its territory in southern Africa, with a core military presence near the all important for global trade Cape of Good Hope which is the transit point for about 10% of global seaborne-traded oil. Fast forward to today when AFP reports that after securing Southen Africa, China is now in process of securing the second critical geopolitical area in Africa: the horn, which just happens to be right next to the infamous Bab el-Mandeb Strait located by the recently infamous country of Yemen, which in recent months has been overrun by US-armed Houthi Rebels. According to AFP, China is negotiating a military base in the strategic port of Djibouti, the president said, raising the prospect of US and Chinese bases side-by-side in the tiny Horn of Africa nation.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-1 ... hoke-point

Philip
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Philip » 12 May 2015 17:30

How the Chinese lie and lie,deceive the world and hide their true diabolic intentions.Mr.Modi should be extra careful during his visit to Beijing and not sign away by deception India's interests either economic or strategic.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac ... ic-Desktop
'Unlucky guy' tasked with buying China's aircraft carrier: Xu Zengping
Xu Zengping opens up about the clandestine operation to buy the Liaoning and unfinished business

It was a stealth operation like no other in China - even the highest echelons of political power were kept in the dark.

The only sign, if anybody had been looking, emerged in April, 1997, just a few months before Hong Kong's return to China. It was then that Hong Kong-based businessman Xu Zengping, best known for owning a Palace of Versailles-style home on The Peak, opened an unassuming office in three rented suites of Beijing's Grand Hotel.

To the outside world, the sole purpose of the office, with its sweeping views of the Forbidden City, was to organise a stunt on the Yellow River to mark the handover.

But inside, Xu's staff were coordinating one of the biggest covert deals in the military's history - the mission to buy an unfinished Soviet aircraft carrier from Ukraine and deliver it to China.


Xu Zengping says the carrier was not a gift to the navy.

Xu, a former captain of the Guangzhou Military Command basketball team, said he had been persuaded over the course of several talks to take on the challenge by the then-deputy commander of the PLA Navy, vice-admiral He Pengfei.

"He told me that it was a once-in-a-century opportunity for China to buy a new carrier," Xu told the South China Morning Post in an exclusive interview. Two other Hong Kong businessmen had turned down the request, leaving Xu as the only man standing.

"I was totally convinced and moved by him when he held my hand and said: 'Please do me a favour - go and buy [the carrier] and bring it back for our country and our army'."

Xu said the two met about a dozen times between April, 1996 and February, 1998. One of the most memorable meetings was on July 10, 1996, when, at He's invitation, Xu attended a parade in Qingdao in Shandong province to see off the North Sea Fleet on a trip to North Korea. It was one of the rare occasions that a civilian had been invited to such an event - all the more so because it was the fleet's first trip to North Korea.

After the ceremony, He asked Xu to stay on at the navy's Beihai Hotel for three days, using the time to try to convince the businessman to take on the task. On the last day, a naval plane sent He and Xu to Beijing and the two continued discussing plans for the carrier deal. That was when Xu said he would consider going to Ukraine to negotiate the purchase. Xu finally agreed in March, 1997 to broker the deal. The vice-admiral was present again in Guangzhou in late 1997 to bid Xu farewell on his mission.

"I promised He that I would take the carrier home at any cost because I really appreciated his patriotism. He was a responsible leader who devoted himself to China's long-term defence and maritime strategies, daring to take political risks for the right decision," Xu said.


Vice-admiral He Pengfei (middle) gave Xu Zengping a farewell in late 1997 before he departed for Ukraine. Photo: SCMP

At the time, Beijing was wary of antagonising the United States and had told the military to shelve its plans to build or acquire a carrier. Such an offensive vessel, it was thought, would send the wrong aggressive signal to Washington. A carrier was also an expensive proposition - one China could ill-afford.

So the whole project had to be conducted in secrecy, with Xu acting as a proxy for He and pretending to buy the ship to set up a floating casino in Macau.

According to Xu, the navy had been hard at work in preparation since the cash-strapped Ukrainian Black Sea Shipyard announced in 1992 that it would sell the Varyag. In the new post-cold war order, the shipyard needed money and the aircraft carrier was its biggest floating asset.


Xu Zengping on the Liaoning with Captain Zhang Zheng and political commissar Mei Wen. Photo: SCMP

China had already bought and refitted a 37,000-tonne refuelling ship from the former Soviet supplier; today the "Qinghai Lake" vessel is part of the nation's anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden.

To hold up his end of the bargain, Xu sold his coveted home on The Peak, mortgaged a plot of land on Peng Chau and took loans from business partners. It wasn't easy - this was at the height of the Asian financial crisis - but he summoned enough cash to open two offices for the deal, one in Beijing and another in Kiev. "I rented three business suites in the Grand Hotel in early 1997 and made it our Beijing office … We set up another company in Kiev and a dozen shipbuilding and naval experts were sent there to work to negotiate with the Ukrainian authorities," he said.

The Beijing office stayed open for 18 months and was shut down the moment Xu signed the carrier deal contract with the Ukrainian authorities in March, 1998. The Kiev operation continued until the carrier left the Black Sea Shipyard in July, 1999, Xu said. "I paid all the operating costs of the two offices," Xu said.


Xu Zengping (middle) with Zhong Jiafei (left) and Xiao Yun (right) in Guangzhou on June 9, 1996. Photo: SCMP

In 1998, then-premier Zhu Rongji formally rejected the carrier project, according to China's Carrier, a book published by China Development Press, and Xu said that the central government's lack of support meant the navy could not refund him.

Xu claimed he spent at least US$120 million of his own money on the deal between 1996 and 1999, covering costs that included running the two offices, the US$20 million auction price for the carrier, towage fees, overdue payments and port fees.

Whatever the personal and financial price, buying the ready-made carrier may have helped save China at least 15 years of scientific research, one mainland naval expert said.

Xu has had no official recognition of his contribution and state media have never clarified his link with the carrier. It is still unclear how the only person to sign the contract with the Ukrainian authorities handed the ship over to the Chinese government.

Two of the military officials at the centre of the covert operation cannot say: vice-admiral He died in 2001, a year before the carrier arrived in China, and another key player, former PLA intelligence chief Ji Shengde, who also worked with Xu behind the scenes, was jailed for life on corruption charges by a military court in 2000.

And Xu certainly won't say. He told the Post in an earlier interview that he "didn't sell the ship to either the government or the military".

Asked if the carrier was a gift to the navy, Xu answered: "Did you see any presentation ceremony for the carrier? I can tell you that it never happened. I can only say that I was an unlucky guy because … key senior military officials involved in the deal are either dead or in jail," Xu said.


Xu Zengping and his family on the Liaoning with Captain Zhang Zheng (third from left) and political commissar Mei Wen (second from right) on August 10, 2013. Photo: SCMP

Despite the lack of official recognition, Xu is well regarded among the top ranks of the navy. On August 10, 2013, a year after the refitted carrier went into service as the Liaoning, Xu and his family were welcomed aboard the vessel by the two men at its helm, Captain Zhang Zheng and political commissar Mei Wen.

On the backroom role of Ji, Xu said he was the "real boss" who gave his stamp of approval on the deal. Xu said that when he set up a Beijing office to oversee the deal, it was Ji who agreed to Xiao Yun , then deputy head of the naval air force's armament department, heading the office. Xiao retired from the military to take on the new job.

Zhong Jiafei, a former project agency head of the Central Military Commission's Arms Trading Company, was the middleman between He and Xu. "The roles of Xiao and Zhong were arranged by me, and Ji personally endorsed my planning and gave me a lot of support and professional advice," Xu said.

Macau-based military observer Antony Wong Dong said Xu was one of the navy's unsung heroes. "It seems like the navy sent Xu's contributions up in flames after the death of He and Ji's incarceration. Besides He and Ji, no one is qualified to testify to his efforts in the carrier deal," Wong said. "Many unsung heroes lost their lives during the carrier's refit and trials. Xu is just one of the casualties of the carrier project's rough ride over the past four decades, thanks to the PLA's lack of transparency."




Key dates in secret deal for China's aircraft carrier

March, 1992 - Navy sends a delegation to Ukraine's Black Sea Shipyard

November 6, 1992 - Navy buys a half-finished 37,000-tonne refuelling ship from Ukraine. The ship is designed to be a supply vessel for a Soviet aircraft carrier

1993 to 1995 - Carrier project on hold due to the central leadership's opposition

April, 1996 - Vice-admiral He Pengfei approaches Xu Zengping

March, 1997 - Xu decides to take up the mission

April, 1997 - Sets up an office in Beijing

June, 1997 - Sets up an office in Kiev

August, 1997- Sets up a Macau shell company as part of the "floating casino" cover plan

October, 1997 - Xu flies to Ukraine for talks

December, 1997 - Xu pays HK$6 million to the Macau authorities for casino documents

February 1, 1998 - Xu flies to Kiev again with the documents, US$2 million in cash and dozens of bottles of Chinese liquor

March 19, 1998 - Xu wins the bid for the carrier with a US$20 million offer

March 20, 1998 - Carrier's blueprints, weighing 40 tonnes, are sent overland to Beijing

Late March, 1998 - Xu shuts down his Beijing office

July, 1999 - Carrier begins its journey from the Black Sea to China

Late 1999 - Xu closes his office in Kiev

March 3, 2002 - Ship arrives in Dalian, Liaoning
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as 'Unlucky guy' sent to buy China's carrier

NRao
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby NRao » 12 May 2015 22:01

even more fun:

How Chinese hackers snooped on Indian defence agencies for over 10 years

A Singapore based firm has uncovered a large scale cyber espionage network that is says is linked to the Chinese government. The network has been active for 10 years in the region and targets India in particular by infecting computer systems of key, selected individuals and organisations. Terming it the APT30, Singapore firm FireEye says that the infection is specially targeted at Indian military, aerospace and maritime sector.

What is interesting is that Singapore researches have uncovered the modus operandi of the spying network that uses decoy documents that users would download or read in their emails or online. The decoy documents contain a bug that can transmit data and information from the infection computer system back to servers in China. The bug can even hide in documents and infect secure computers not connected to a network.

The Decoy documents are specially tailored to meet the interests of individuals or organisations to be targeted - these include government agencies, private industry and media groups. Chinese hackers used decoy documents on Indian military movements in the South China sea, papers on the indigenous aircraft carrier under construction in Kochi, incidents on the China border and relations with Nepal to infect key

A sample of the phising documents includes -

A document titled - "India deploys world's largest military transport plane.doc"

chanakyaa
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby chanakyaa » 13 May 2015 03:13

Please feel free to move the article if not in the spirit of this dhaga

One case of economic angle and Chinese opportunism (nothing wrong with that. They didn't invent it and definitely not the first to use it)

Chinese took over the funding and construction of a mega resort in the Bahamas. The primary objective was, as it always has been to deploy worthless paper currency to buy hard assets, employs its population in overseas projects, and establish construction foothold in the Amercias.

Bahamas Resort’s Delay Hurts China’s Plans to Win Construction Business

Philip
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Philip » 13 May 2015 11:47

Tough talking needs to be done by Mr.Modi.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/columns ... 811089.ece
Bad Policy, Geostrategics Will Go against India
By Bharat Karnad
Published: 13th May 2015

Prime minister Narendra Modi goes to China weighed down by traditionally bad geostrategics and even worse policy.

Consider the underway Chinese initiatives in India’s neighbourhood—the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to access the warm water port at Gwadar, submarines and combat aircraft to Pakistan, the Qinghai-Lhasa railway with a loop-line to Xigatze on the Nepal border, the “maritime silk route” and the “string of pearls” in the Indian Ocean, the old silk route connecting China with Central Asia and Russia majorly through Kazakhstan, investment in infrastructure and extractive industry in Afghanistan, and the BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) scheme worked out of Kunming to provide the fast industrialising western provinces an opening on the Bay of Bengal. These developments are enveloping India in a geostrategic mesh—the essence of Wei-qi, an ancient Chinese board game and template for Chinese statecraft.

In Wei-qi, the objective is to fill as many of the squares on the board with one’s pieces, the corners inwards, to crowd the adversary and leave him little manoeuvring space and freedom of action. Using trade, aid, military assistance, and cultural exchanges with countries around India and farther afield, China means to influence India’s policies by influencing these states that otherwise fall naturally within the Indian strategic penumbra.

What is the Indian geostrategic model to compete with Wei-qi? From ancient times the Hindu sense of the subcontinental space bounded by the mountains, deserts, and the seas is that of Jambudwipa—the great big island state. It is hardly surprising that its outlook has been insular, and friends and foes conceived on the basis of geometric determinism dictated on the basis of a simplistic formulation of the mandala, codified in the Arthashastra. The mandala concept of concentric circles—the inner-most circle comprising adversaries, followed by a tier of friends, the next outer circle again of enemies, and so on has ensured maximally-riled neighbours. Whatever its utility in pre-historical India of perpetually warring kingdoms, the mandala scheme virtually disabled rulers from envisaging distant threats, because vast intervening spaces made perceiving nations far from the homeland as friendly or adversarial difficult, whence the preoccupation with smaller, weaker, adjoining states—a foreign policy affliction to this day. Wei-qi obviously scores over the less engaged mandala-infused approach (non-alignment, strategic autonomy).

Against a more equal rival such as the United States, however, Wei-qi turns, in effect, into a classical balance-of-power game, with moves countered by corresponding moves to deny the opponent spatial domination. Against a strategic vision deficient-India that, for instance, did not respond with alacrity to China’s nuclear missile arming Pakistan by prompt transfers of nuclear and conventionally warheaded missiles and major armaments to Vietnam, the Philippines, and other countries on the Chinese periphery, Beijing will always have the upper hand.

The new thing Modi brings to the table is his boundless confidence and ready wittedness. An impactful incident of Modi’s diplomacy that few know about occurred during Chinese president Xi Jinping’s visit last September. With the intrusion of an armed unit of the People’s Liberation Army in the Chumar sector of the disputed Aksai China region as backdrop, Modi asked Xi if the PLA in China dominated the political leadership in the manner the army does the government in Pakistan. Cut to the quick Xi professed ignorance of the intrusion, but PLA troops pulled back the next day.

This little episode no doubt induced in Xi respect for Modi, particularly for the manner in which the message was conveyed, complete with the derisory allusion, and in light of the history of PLA provocations as accompaniment to high-level meetings. Recall that China invaded Vietnam in February 1979 on the day external affairs minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee reached Beijing, a symbolic slap and a warning to India that it may be next! But can the personal regard Xi has for Modi be converted into real benefits for India? Doubtful, because Chinese leaders, pickled in the brine of China’s centrality in the world, are not swayed by flummery. For them the strategic end-state matters, not small profit from marginal attributes.

The larger picture is still more worrisome. Deng Xiaoping’s 1991 guideline—“hide your capability, bide your time”—has been given the heave-ho. Xi has apparently determined that China’s economic and military capability is sufficiently muscled to flex it and that now’s the time to begin challenging the United States for supremacy in Asia. This is evident in the growingly aggressive military measures—naval patrolling in far-off waters, announcement of the air defence identification zone in the South China Sea, embedding of sonar buoys around the disputed Senkaku Islands to monitor Japanese and US warship traffic, and by rendering potential partners of the US, such as India, less effective once Beijing starts acting decisively in Asia-Pacific.

This is the reason why despite Modi prioritising the resolution of the border dispute, the 18th meeting in late March this year of the Special Representatives—National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and the former Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi—achieved nothing. This outcome was preordained, because keeping a border solution dangling keeps New Delhi in check. Then again Beijing has had to do little for Indian governments to unilaterally cede ground on the Tibet issue—surrendering of inherited Indian rights in Lhasa, recognition of Chinese suzerainty, then sovereignty, “One-China” policy, stapled visas, in return for zilch (unless Beijing’s infirm acceptance of Sikkim as part of India is considered a big deal). But this is the recessive China policy the ministry of external affairs has flogged, and Modi has not retracted.

Modi will get investment but only if India stays with the Chinese line on Tibet, and the lopsided, neo-colonial, $75 billion trade—Indian minerals for Chinese finished goods—and a skewed balance-of-payments problem that cost this country $37 billion last year. This imbalance will not be dented by increased Indian exports of vegetables, fruit and, ironically, in the face of the brouhaha over cow slaughter, of beef. The fact is the China-assisted infrastructure build-up, a rousing welcome for Modi in Xian, and a hall full of screaming Indians in Shanghai do not compensate for India’s strategic reduction.
an overboard

India needs to keep its interests in mind when dealing with China with NO compromise.We must ratchet up our defence relationship with Vietnam,Taiwan,etc,providing them with arms and N-tech (Vietnam),so that Vietnam can one day go nuclear on its own,the same way that China helped Pak!

If China continues with stapled visas,we must do likewise.I cannot understand the servility of our MEA.Likewise,the balance of payments ratio must be leveled.If not,then Chines egoods must face severe strictures//duties and absolutely no handicrafts from China which is destroying our small-scale local industry.It is sacrilege that Indian deities are "made in China",a godless China that too!

Our little neighbours who yap way beyond their strength,like the Maldives,etc.refusing to be neutral and not harbor anti-Indian external forces like China and Pak,must be given an ultimatum.[b]India can do to the Maldives what Putin has done in the UKR and not a ghost will come to its aid. and the local troublesome Sino-Pakis can be asked to swim home.Sri Lanka has reversed its anti-Indian and pro-active China policies with refusing to allow Chinese subs to use Colombo and a halt to the Port City development.With the US now on Lanka's side too,with an overboard profuse welcoming from the Lankan govt.,the Chinese have been effectively shut out of the Island,but are still trying their best to get their old bum-chum Rajapakse in with a chance at the next parliamentary elections where he may start a new party to salvage his future.

prahaar
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby prahaar » 14 May 2015 10:57

https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/598732087076618240

The crowd that has gathered to see Modi in China is quite surprising (if it is not planned by CPC and most of them are Chinese nationals not expat Indians). Probably a word or two about Modi has reached Chinese cities as well. Can anyone who has been to China or living there comment?

member_27845
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby member_27845 » 14 May 2015 16:39

I am glad NM didn't bow down to 11 ping when he walked up to him

Used to cringe when MMS did it ( that too at his venerable age )

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Amber G. » 14 May 2015 22:25

prahaar wrote:https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/598732087076618240

The crowd that has gathered to see Modi in China is quite surprising (if it is not planned by CPC and most of them are Chinese nationals not expat Indians). Probably a word or two about Modi has reached Chinese cities as well. Can anyone who has been to China or living there comment?


I have visited a few times but not for a very long time in recent time period. My son (an US engineer - Indian/American OCI/US citizenship) visits it quite often .. about 25%-40% time (one-two week every 5-6 weeks).. and apart from work has travelled inside China a lot. He, in fact will be leaving for China tomorrow for about 2 weeks. (Will be in Shanghai at the same time as NaMo)

People are in general quite friendly. People who work there (from iPhones to x-boxes are manufactured there these days) of course are very respectful (he is quite young and is not used to such "respect" in US from people who work under him).

This is quite different from old days. I remember the time when China was closed to US (or Indians)..One of my prof (a word famous Chinese/American physicist) was one of the first US person to visit main land China .. allowed to go to visit his ailing father (after a gap of 20+years)... but welcomed by Mao personally in China. This was before Nixon's visit. (This prof was, in fact, did the important work for Nixon/China opening up).
Interesting to read this prof's experiences (he has written quite a lot about this aspect in his autobiography )


Having a big crowd is not surprising (even if 30% of people have positive opinion - it is still a large number)

One big surprise for me was common people (of NaMo's age) were/are VERY familiar with Mukesh/Raj.
Kapoor. I have heard people who know no Hindi, singing Mukesh's songs (in Hindi).

Once while seeing a Chinese Movie ("Not One Less" - I did like the movie) I was told by the person who recommended this movie that , she has seen only one hindi movie, long time ago, when she was young, but she liked it very much and it was extremely popular then. She could not remember the name but could hum the tune of one song. I recognized right away it was from "Awaara".. (I did mail her a copy of DVD later and she was very happy).


Another person I know and have read his detail articles, is a French-Indian physicist who has spent quite some time in China around 1990's-2000's and wrote extensively about his experiences. He even sneaked in Lhasa around the time when no foreigners were allowed in Tibet - and travelled (very big adventure - some very hard interactions with Chinese security services ) over land route to India. (He spoke language(s) fluently so, interestingly, was able to hide the fact that he was a foreigner-- and sometimes got mistaken as ethnic Uighur)... Anyway it was fun to read his travel logs.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Mihaylo » 15 May 2015 00:05

prahaar wrote:https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/598732087076618240

The crowd that has gathered to see Modi in China is quite surprising (if it is not planned by CPC and most of them are Chinese nationals not expat Indians). Probably a word or two about Modi has reached Chinese cities as well. Can anyone who has been to China or living there comment?



The Chinese guard next to Namo is freaking out. :eek: :D :D

-M

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby NRao » 15 May 2015 07:42


Philip
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Philip » 15 May 2015 18:59

China's Naval Plans for Djibouti: A Road, a Belt, or a String of Pearls?
As China looks to Djibouti, it may be apparent that Beijing’s “peaceful rise” is showing its claws.
By Rob Edens
May 14, 2015

Last autumn, a Namibian newspaper leaked a story that sent ripples across the world. In a November article, the Namibian Times presented an unofficial Chinese report outlining steps for the building of 18 military naval bases (including one in Namibia, at Walvis Bay). In addition, Chinese ambitions extended to Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar in the northern Indian Ocean; Djibouti, Yemen, Oman, Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique in the western Indian Ocean; and Seychelles and Madagascar in the central South Indian Ocean. These bases together would frame China’s three strategic lines for “maintaining the safety of international maritime routes” and, ultimately “world stability.”

Although the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA-N) blasted the report as “utterly groundless,” Djibouti’s strongman Ismail Omar Guelleh recently acknowledged that his country is indeed holding high level talks with Beijing for a Chinese naval military base in the northern port of Obock. Is this the first sign that China is serious about developing a blue water navy capable of acting outside its immediate sphere of influence? Is “China’s peaceful rise” starting to show its claws?

Much ado has been made of Xi Jinping’s Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road initiative (jointly known as “one belt and one road”), a $140 billion plan meant to expand China’s global reach. Best understood as a circle that originates on China’s East coast and spans South Asia and the Middle East, climbing to Europe via East Africa and the Suez canal, on one side, before returning to its original point via Russia and Central Asia, on the other, the project is an integral part of Xi’s “China Dream” of national rejuvenation.

Beijing went to considerable pains to frame the Modern Silk Road (MSR) merely as an economic plan of global proportions that will impact 4.4 billion people and facilitate a jaw dropping $2.5 trillion in commerce over a decade. Despite its massive scale, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi sought to play down the more than $140 billion program’s importance, insisting it was “not a tool of geopolitics.” However, some have expressed concern over the operational level of the project. Even if for many countries included in the MSR, Beijing’s ambitions will bring a welcome economic boost, the project will become entangled in multiple foreign disputes the Middle Kingdom has traditionally sought to avoid.

Although both pundits and Chinese officials have devoted a great deal of attention to the MSR’s Asian route, its African component, despite being the focus of important political developments, has barely registered a blip in the debate. But as Djibouti’s recent announcement so pointedly showed, Beijing’s narrative of solely pursuing a strategy of economic diplomacy is perhaps tinted with geopolitical flavors after all. Reacting to the news, military analyst Lesley Anne Warner stated “I don’t want to use the word alarming, but what’s happening is a departure from China’s role in Africa, which has until now been primarily economically focused.”

It’s no longer a secret that China has climbed to the top of Africa’s trade partner ladder, going from a paltry $1 billion in bilateral trade in 1980 to a record $200 billion in 2014. Fueled by loans, foreign direct investment in critical infrastructure projects, and advantageous prices for exports, this primarily economic relationship is now slowly morphing into a more comprehensive partnership that risks displacing the existing balance of power on the continent. For example, a Cornell University study from 2013 uncovered evidence that “trade with China generates foreign policy consequences,” especially concerning the voting patterns of African countries inside the United Nations General Assembly. What’s more, since Africa is already host to a complex network of military alliances and defense agreements signed either with former colonial masters or the United States, China’s expanding influence on the continent at the behest of Xi’s “ one belt and one road” vision will likely cause frictions and push Beijing into taking a more active stance.

Djibouti is a case in point. The country has contracted Chinese loans and is currently developing 14 lavish megaprojects, worth some $9.8 billion, with Beijing’s help. However, Djibouti is also arguably Washington’s most important African ally and plays host to the biggest American base on the continent, Camp Lemonnier. Home to some 4,500 personnel, fighter planes, Predator UAVs and helicopters, the base is the principal hub for drone operations in Yemen and Somalia and wider U.S. counterterrorism campaigns throughout the region. Sensitive to national security issues, Washington heavily protested against a 2014 security and defense agreement Djibouti signed with Beijing, and agreed to a doubling of the rent it paid for Lemonnier in the hopes of maintaining the country’s three-going-on-a-litigious-fourth-term president, Guelleh, on its side. In the run-up to a May 5 visit by Secretary of State John Kerry, U.S. lawmakers even sent a letter calling out Guelleh’s double standards toward Washington as well as his long-standing human rights abuses and autocratic tendencies. The May 10 announcement of a future Chinese base will surely not go down well in Washington.

In the context of a growing rivalry between Beijing and Washington, Djibouti showcases that certain strategic points are underpinned by a zero-sum logic, where one power’s gain can only come at the other one’s loss. What this means is that the idea of the MSR as a purely economic initiative is fanciful to say the least.

It should also be noted that the MSR initiative is not financed through grants or development aid but through loans, some of which carry high interest rates. The IMF expressed concern at Djibouti’s own capacity to repay the billions of dollars borrowed from Beijing. Furthermore, the recent kerfuffle in Sri Lanka and the Maldives—where the governments accepted loans at unsustainable rates and were force to cede control to Beijing of strategic assets it helped finance in exchange for relaxing conditions—presents a different narrative for the MSR. According to this latter interpretation, the project is nothing more than a long-term strategy through which China gets to have its cake and eat it too—a government contracts a development loan, builds infrastructure useful for both its needs and China’s, before ceding administration of the asset to Beijing over solvency concerns.

If that were the case, then the MSR would enforce a line of analysis dubbed the “string of pearls” model, according to which China’s maritime strategy is to disguise military bases across the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, all the way to Africa, as commercial deep-water ports.


A PLA-N base in Djibouti would most certainly give a nod to this view.

The author is a London-based researcher.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby prahaar » 15 May 2015 21:14

Amber G. wrote:
prahaar wrote:https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/598732087076618240

The crowd that has gathered to see Modi in China is quite surprising (if it is not planned by CPC and most of them are Chinese nationals not expat Indians). Probably a word or two about Modi has reached Chinese cities as well. Can anyone who has been to China or living there comment?


I have visited a few times but not for a very long time in recent time period. My son (an US engineer - Indian/American OCI/US citizenship) visits it quite often .. about 25%-40% time (one-two week every 5-6 weeks).. and apart from work has travelled inside China a lot. He, in fact will be leaving for China tomorrow for about 2 weeks. (Will be in Shanghai at the same time as NaMo)

Having a big crowd is not surprising (even if 30% of people have positive opinion - it is still a large number)

One big surprise for me was common people (of NaMo's age) were/are VERY familiar with Mukesh/Raj.
Kapoor. I have heard people who know no Hindi, singing Mukesh's songs (in Hindi).



Thanks for the detailed insight about China, very helpful. Based on your description, sounds like a very "normal" place, with casual friendly interactions. Unlike the uptight/robotic image that is more prevalent in the official media.

Based on the above, Modi going on Weibo was a useful effort and at the crowd might be there of their own volition.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Philip » 17 May 2015 15:03

Can we have a debate upon the gains/outcome of PM Modi's China visit? It was a v.significant visit from China's viewpoint,where they've laid out the red carpet to prevent India from joining an anti-China mil alliance with the US-Japan-Oz- alliance. The Chinese ambassador had a large review of the visit in the media today.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ramana » 18 May 2015 21:09

Philip wrote:Can we have a debate upon the gains/outcome of PM Modi's China visit? It was a v.significant visit from China's viewpoint,where they've laid out the red carpet to prevent India from joining an anti-China mil alliance with the US-Japan-Oz- alliance. The Chinese ambassador had a large review of the visit in the media today.



Why don't you start a thread on the topic?

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ramana » 20 May 2015 08:41

Rising China Indian discourse

Download pdf

IDSA OCCASIONAL PAPERS
Talking About a ‘Rising China’: An Analysis of Indian Official Discourse 1996- 2012
Peter Van Der Hoest

IDSA Occasional Paper No. 38
2015

This Occasional Paper looks at the idea of China being a potential security threat as spoken about in India's official discourse that is, as written down in annual reports or governmental statements or mentioned in the speeches of Indian officials. It does not analyse India's foreign policy, the strategic environment, or offer a new perspective on the development of bilateral security relations. Instead, the aim is to identify which drivers and themes figure most prominently in New Delhi’s publicly uttered concerns over a rising China, and to see if, when and how India’s official rhetoric has changed over time. The three themes that figure largely in the discourse--the contested border, nuclear proliferation, and China’s inroads into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are discussed in separate sections. The Occasional Paper begins with a generic analysis of the overall discourse, and discusses the specific themes identified above subsequently. This Occasional Paper does not address statements made by retired officials or servicemen or reports or articles. Although their opinions give valuable insights, they do not, strictly speaking, speak in any official capacity.
About the Author

Peter van der Hoest is a Ph. D Candidate at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo, Japan. His research focuses on comparative official and public discourses over a rising China.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby panduranghari » 20 May 2015 11:59

http://www.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/video ... px?id=3073
and


A very good talk about China and its top leadership. Hank Paulson claims to be a good friend of Xi. Perhaps what he says here may help re assess out assumptions of the strengths of the Chinese. They kind of have similar issues like India but perhaps the leadership has a bit more control than what we have in India. The economic engine is slowing down and there is a real fear within then top leadership that this has to be managed.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby UlanBatori » 21 May 2015 22:03

Why has this not been reported here I wonder.

In memory of 'Wrong Way' Wong Wei

warned a U.S. surveillance plane flying over artificial islands that Beijing is creating in the disputed South China Sea to leave the area eight times, according to CNN, which was on board the flight on Wednesday.

At one stage, after the American pilots responded by saying the plane was flying through international airspace, a Chinese radio operator said with exasperation: "This is the Chinese navy ... You go!"

Poseidon "Lego" airplane is still in use I see.. after being returned in crates a while back from Hainan.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby UlanBatori » 22 May 2015 16:34

China cracks down on cleavage at cosplay convention

What gives? Communist Party going Burkha? Mao Coats coming back in fashion?
Organizers of Asia's largest digital entertainment expo -- where scantily clad models usually dress up as characters from comic books, movies and video games -- say they will levy a fine of $800 on women who reveal "more than two centimeters of cleavage."
Men are not exempt from the crackdown on exposed flesh.
They will face the same penalty if they wear low-hanging pants or expose their underwear. If models are caught dancing in cages or around a pole they will be fined a whopping $1,600, as will anyone caught striking vulgar poses.
It's the latest example of what appears to be a government campaign for stricter morality in China.
This year's Shanghai Auto Show banned "car babes" -- scantily clad models who in previous years had posed provocatively on car hoods to draw crowds.
And in December, government censors pulled a historical TV show off air for the ample cleavage it featured.


Imagine! A Mao Coat vs. Burkha Couture Contest! Already the price of cotton has zoomed sky-high, this would take it right past gold.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby SSridhar » 23 May 2015 17:52

UlanBatori wrote:China cracks down on cleavage at cosplay convention
Organizers of Asia's largest digital entertainment expo -- where scantily clad models usually dress up as characters from comic books, movies and video games -- say they will levy a fine of $800 on women who reveal "more than two centimeters of cleavage."

So, who is going to measure them?

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby svinayak » 24 May 2015 11:23

panduranghari wrote:http://www.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/player.aspx?id=3073
and

A very good talk about China and its top leadership. Hank Paulson claims to be a good friend of Xi. Perhaps what he says here may help re assess out assumptions of the strengths of the Chinese. They kind of have similar issues like India but perhaps the leadership has a bit more control than what we have in India. The economic engine is slowing down and there is a real fear within then top leadership that this has to be managed.


The Bankers were trying to use the Chinese financial market to help bailout the 2008 crisis but it did not work

Paulson was known to have persuaded President George W. Bush to allow him to spearhead U.S.-China relations and initiated and led the U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue, a forum and mechanism under which the two countries addressed global areas of immediate and long-term strategic and economic interest. In spring 2007, Paulson warned an audience at the Shanghai Futures Exchange that China needed to free up capital markets to avoid losing potential economic growth, saying: "An open, competitive, and liberalized financial market can effectively allocate scarce resources in a manner that promotes stability and prosperity far better than governmental intervention." In September 2008, in light of the economic crisis experienced by the U.S. in the interim, Chinese leaders evidenced hesitation to follow Paulson's advice.[20]

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby panduranghari » 24 May 2015 18:23

Paulson was the chief proponent of G2 talks. In the other Chinese thread there is a post on Chinese leadership given by Arne Westad. http://www.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/video ... px?id=3061 listen from 1hour 1 mon 30 seconds. This guy is an historian and he says internal turmoil within the political establishment is problematic because some are hawkish and some are dovish. They want the presidents ear. And foreign policy bureaucracy has no ear of the president. The fear is nationalism within China will lead to fall of the communist party. This leads to Chinese government trying to 'ride a tiger' by using nationalist argument in their favour. But they fear if they fall off the tiger they will be devoured by the tiger. 1989 was the attempt at the same. And he expects it to happen again.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby svinayak » 24 May 2015 20:18

panduranghari wrote:P And he expects it to happen again.

Likely to happen in 2020

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ramana » 26 May 2015 04:57

At outset China looks stable. Less than a dozen dynasties from 2850 B.C to modern era. And mpa of China from early times to modern has expansion vs contraction theme.

I am interested in the twilight of the different dynasties to see what was common and what was unique.

One comment I have is without strong central ruler i.e twilight period, China fractures into 3 regions.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby SSridhar » 26 May 2015 16:55

"Emperor is far away . . ." is a famous Chinese adage.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ramana » 30 May 2015 19:45

X-pos....

Ashutosh Malik wrote:Would recommend reading this while we make strategies based on China being 5x ahead of India, etc. Best regards.

http://dravirmani.blogspot.in/2015/05/p ... china.html

"RELATIVE SIZE
That is one basic reality: China’s real economy is about 2.4 times that of India, or inversely India’s real economy is about 40% the size of China’s. As China’s GDP at PPP was about the same as India’s in 1985, it took thirty years for China to open this gap.[1] During this period Chinas growth rate (9.9%) averaged 3.4% points more than the 6.5% average Indian GDP growth rate. As people some time confuse GDP with per capita GDP, the corresponding facts are as follows: China’s real per capita GDP, which was equal to India’s in 1992 (0.99) had become 2.2 times India’s per capita GDP (PPP) by 2013. The average growth rate of per capita GDP from 1990 to 2013 was 9% for China and 4.8% for India. It thus took, 25 years for a per capita growth difference of 4.2% per year to translate into a per capita income difference of 2.2 times.
By way of benchmark, note that China’s GDP at PPP is now almost equal to that of USA, even though its Per Capita GDP at PPP (PcGdpPpp) is only about 22% of US( because its population is 4.3 times). India’s GDP is therefore also 40% of the US, while its per capita GDP is 10% of the US."

"GROWTH DIFFERENTIAL
The second basic reality is that the difference in the growth rates of China and India has been narrowing during this period 1990 to 2013. Thus estimating and plotting the GDP “growth differential” and introducing a linear trend through it shows that the “growth differential” has declined by about 0.16 per cent point per year. The per capita GDP growth differential has narrowed at the slightly slower rate of 0.15 per cent point per year. Those concerned about the new Indian data with base 2011, should be reassured that this narrowing trend was clear in the old data available up to 2013-14. If we extend this data to include the forecast growth for 2015, we see a sharp narrowing of the GDP growth differential suggesting that the China’s growth trend will go below India’s from 2016 (actual GDP growth is virtually equal in 2014).
Along with the GDP Gap, have been the narrowing of the gap is several ratios, known to be correlated to per capita GDP growth. These include the Export/GDP, Import/GDP and FDI/GDP ratios. The faster growth of exports of goods and services, their imports and FDI, may in fact be driving the narrowing of the per capita GDP growth gap."

"APPRAISAL & PROJECTION
A realistic appraisal of the relative position of India viz China and how we got there also provides a basis for projecting into the future. Thus it took about 22 years for China’s real per capita GDP to become 2.2 times that of India’s with an average per capita GDP growth differential of around 4.2% per year. Given relative population growth rates, it took about 28 years for China’s real GDP to become 2.4 times India’s with an average GDP growth differential of about 3.4% per year. If India’s average GDP growth averages about 3.4% points more than China’s, India’s GDP will take between 25 to 30 years to catch up to, and become equal to that of, China. Thus for instance if India is able to accelerate growth to an average of 8.5%, while China’s growth slows to about 5%, it would take about 28 years to close the gap. This is however an optimistic projection from India’s perspective.
A more realistic scenario would be for both Indian and Chinese growth rates to decline gradually, with Indian GDP growth averaging about 2.3% points higher than China over several decades. Based on this scenario, a realistic objective for Indian Growth and development would be to target an elimination of the GDP PPP gap with China by 2050. Though this is a generational challenge it is far from impossible one."

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Suraj » 04 Jun 2015 22:49

Letter from overseas Chinese breaks silence on Tiananmen
They were born too late to remember the night 26 years ago when Chinese troops slaughtered hundreds of pro-democracy student activists in the heart of Beijing. Many grew up hearing only government accounts of the event, which paint the massacre as the unfortunate conclusion to some vague political intrigue.

Nonetheless, this June 4, 11 Chinese university students living overseas are trying to break through the official silence with a widely circulated, passionately worded letter that encourages their compatriots to learn more about the Tiananmen massacre — a watershed event that has defined China ever since.

Written by University of Georgia graduate student Gu Yi, and co-signed by 10 other overseas Chinese students, the letter has become one of the few flashpoints as this year's anniversary arrives, with Chinese authorities on guard against even the tiniest of commemorations.

The letter remembers the government crackdown that killed hundreds and possibly thousands of unarmed protesters and onlookers. It demands that the Chinese leaders who gave the orders late on June 3 and in the early morning hours of June 4, 1989, be held responsible.

"We do not ask the (Chinese Communist Party) to redress the events of that spring as killers are not the ones we turn to to clear the names of the dead, but killers must be tried," the letter reads. "We do not forget, nor forgive, until justice is done and the ongoing persecution is halted."

An online copy of the document has reached readers in China with the help of software that let PDFs get past Chinese censors, Gu said. The document has already drawn a strong rebuke from the Communist Party-run Global Times, which said in an editorial that the students "harshly attacked the current Chinese regime, twisting the facts of 26 years ago with narratives of some overseas hostile forces."

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Suraj » 05 Jun 2015 03:56


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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby VijayN » 06 Jun 2015 04:13

Alright folks, time for some action. In the past many of you have narrated the possibility of a limited war, in a small window that may become available. Looks like it perhaps may not be a fantasy after all!

http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/why-china-may-be-plotting-a-short-border-war-with-india-as-in-1962/ar-BBkJVaf

If panda does do the unthinkable, are we ready on two fronts?

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Singha » 10 Jun 2015 09:18

nobody is ever ready in the ideal sense. if russia attacks alaska today with some 20 bombers how many fighters do you think the mighty usaf can put into the air instantly... < 10 probably just 4 raptors or f15 from elmendorf. usaf would need a week to gather a strongish force and a full month to deploy on a full scale in emergency mode.

less said about the rest of nato the better, barring the FrAF.

what matters is how much resources can you deploy on day0, in 2 weeks, in 4 weeks,....reserves of manpower, weapons, POL, delivery network, ability to cut enemy supplies...a complex matrix with 100 dimensions....

in this we are short on border road infra, GMTI sensors, munitions of all types.....but otherwise have good staying power as our sea lanes can be kept open and our country is very large and well populated.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Singha » 10 Jun 2015 10:39

China is building the most extensive global commercial-military empire in history

http://flip.it/q8fee

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Singha » 10 Jun 2015 16:57

Seems China is losing influence in Myanmar
Top leaders to host Suu Kyi on her 1st visit to China

http://flip.it/lEF8f

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ramana » 11 Jun 2015 02:23

Forget about getting insight from NPR in US. NPR reports on China sound like CCTV documentaries!!!!

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby NRao » 11 Jun 2015 20:10


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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Suraj » 11 Jun 2015 22:31

China's ex-security chief jailed for life after secret trial
China's former security chief Zhou Yongkang was jailed for life Thursday after a secret trial, state-media said, the highest ranking ex-official prosecuted by Beijing for corruption in decades.

He admitted to charges of "bribery, abuse of power and leaking state secrets" at a closed hearing in the northern city of Tianjin, the official Xinhua news agency said in a surprise report.

Zhou, 72, is a former member of the ruling Communist Party's all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee who wielded vast power as head of the police and courts until his retirement in 2012.

State broadcaster CCTV showed a humbled Zhou bowing his head and saying he "admitted his crimes" in a wood-panelled court, his black hair now white and his previously fierce expression gone.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Singha » 13 Jun 2015 13:08

NYT - another home run attack by cheen hackers

WASHINGTON — The White House on Friday revealed that hackers had breached a second computer system at the Office of Personnel Management, and said that President Obama was considering financial sanctions against the attackers who gained access to the files of millions of federal workers.

Investigators had already said that Chinese hackers appeared to have obtained personal data from more than four million current and former federal employees in one of the boldest invasions into a government network.

But on Friday, officials said they believed that a separate computer system at the agency was breached by the same hackers, putting at risk not only data about the federal employees, but also information about friends, family members and associates that could number millions more. Officials said that the second system contained files related to intelligence officials working for the F.B.I., defense contractors and other government agencies.

The attackers focused on sites used by journalists and ethnic minorities. “There’s no financial gain from targeting these sites,” said Jaime Blasco of AlienVault, a California security company.

Sam Schumach, a spokesman for the personnel office, said that the F.B.I.’s incident response team had concluded “with a high degree of confidence” that systems containing information related to background investigations of current, former and prospective federal employees were compromised.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Austin » 14 Jun 2015 12:58

That claim of China Hacker attack on US is along the same lines of US hacker attacking China.

There is no evidence presented by either side and perhaps there would be none , So both sides can just claim any thing and we dont know who is right and who is bluffing.

Atleast the Snowden episode did prove that US has extensive capability and have been using it to attack China cyber system or military ones no surprise if China does the same.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby kit » 14 Jun 2015 19:48

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 666269.cms
Critics say much of the rail infrastructure being built to connect Europe by land has remained idle for want of demand for goods in both Europe and in China. Beijing is keen on developing the land routes as an insurance in case of disturbances on sea routes in future.

Talking about the train between Chongqing and Europe, Jorg Wuttke, president of the European Chamber of Commerce, recently said that it was being mostly used to move Chinese goods as China buys very little from Europe.

"For every five train loads that go from China to Europe, only one comes back. The rest of the containers return from Europe by sea. If China allowed market access to European goods, five trains would go and five would return with goods from Europe," he said at a recent press conference.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby svinayak » 14 Jun 2015 23:29

panduranghari wrote:Paulson was the chief proponent of G2 talks. In the other Chinese thread there is a post on Chinese leadership given by Arne Westad. http://www.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/video ... px?id=3061 listen from 1hour 1 mon 30 seconds. This guy is an historian and he says internal turmoil within the political establishment is problematic because some are hawkish and some are dovish. They want the presidents ear. And foreign policy bureaucracy has no ear of the president. The fear is nationalism within China will lead to fall of the communist party. This leads to Chinese government trying to 'ride a tiger' by using nationalist argument in their favour. But they fear if they fall off the tiger they will be devoured by the tiger. 1989 was the attempt at the same. And he expects it to happen again.

When the PRC has nothing else they will resort to nationalism.

With nationalism they need an external enemy. Indian border will be a great excuse for the purpose.

They will look for a period when they will not have much adverse global public opinion. They had this period during 2009-2010.
Also they are looking for a period when India does not have strong global support from key powers. Fall of the western economies and financial crisis of EU and global banks will create such a situation,
They want global public opinion to turn against India. That period is what PRC will wait for before they strike. The period is between 2019 and 2022.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby panduranghari » 15 Jun 2015 18:35



Very enlightening. Highly recommended.


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