China Watch Thread-I

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Paul » 25 Jun 2017 10:16

Thanks Ssridhar.............However any action taken by Trump on H1B visa is just at discussion stage at this point. All changes to the visa are just at proposal stage and have not changed much on the ground. Please feel free to correct if I am wrong.

This could also tie in with possible PLA resistance to Xi's reforms where he is pushing for cutting PLA manpower by 300K and transfer the funding to the Navy to build more warships. PLA may be looking to create some action on PRC's hitherto dormant land borders to justify it's paycheck.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ritesh » 25 Jun 2017 11:31

sivab wrote:https://twitter.com/Swamy39/status/878251770404716545

Subramanian Swamy‏Verified account @Swamy39

The Chinese army I.e., PLA is getting restive. So fasten your seatbelts folks




https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/878607408477519872

Saurav Jha‏ @SJha1618

Yup, there are reports of PLAA destroying bunkers in the Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction.

Saurav Jha‏ @SJha1618 7h7 hours ago

The Chinese seem to be getting jittery about their position in the Chumbi valley. They destroyed the Indian bunker in the Dokala area.

Saurav Jha‏ @SJha1618 7h7 hours ago
Replying to @SJha1618

Not only does the PLA want to offset its vulnerability in the Chumbi Valley they are also signalling towards the Siliguri Corridor


well there goes rhetoric of no bullet being fire in decades...

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby SSridhar » 25 Jun 2017 12:08

Paul wrote:Thanks Ssridhar.............However any action taken by Trump on H1B visa is just at discussion stage at this point. All changes to the visa are just at proposal stage and have not changed much on the ground. Please feel free to correct if I am wrong.

This could also tie in with possible PLA resistance to Xi's reforms where he is pushing for cutting PLA manpower by 300K and transfer the funding to the Navy to build more warships. PLA may be looking to create some action on PRC's hitherto dormant land borders to justify it's paycheck.

Paul, why, Trump did sign an executive order directing the GotUS to issue visas only for 'highly-skilled and highest-paid' applicants. I am no longer in contact with the IT industry and therefore cannot say with certainty how much this has impacted the operations on the ground. But, the fact that NASSCOM has expressed fears, the GoI is concerned and the individual companies have issued statements on this score all mean that there is some fear, whether the US has actually started implementing the Presidential order or not. OTOH, the US has not initiated any meausre against China on this scale on any of its outstanding issues with it except possibly levying some dumping duties which is business as usual.

On the question of PLA doing this as a retaliation to Xi's restructuring of the armed forces, I don't think so because the reorganization was announced in c. 2015 and the efforts were in the works since at least c. 2013. It was probably Xi's top priority when he assumed the Presidency because he had been a co-chair of the CMC prior to that. The lapse of two years and the not so significant scale of the incident (though we still do not have complete details as they are sketchy) preclude the motivation of PLA 'settling scores' with Xi.

OTOH, the severe incidents on the eve of the Li Keqiang visit and later during the Xi visit were certainly very serious and did suggest some sort of rebellion against Xi's restructuring exercise. The stern order by Xi upon his return to Beijing that the PLA must be disciplined etc. did add credence to this line of analysis.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby panduranghari » 26 Jun 2017 21:01

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener ... -Road.html

The last paragraph was interesting.

The Belt and Road Initiative is a highly ambitious undertaking in line with China’s aspirations to emerge as the central economic power at a time when the United States makes plans to step back from global affairs. Its success depends on China’s ability to move beyond the bilateral framework and allowing a truly multilateral vision for the project to evolve. Otherwise, China can expect to contend with opposition from more countries than India.


Chinese so accustomed to cheque book diplomacy will need to really proce is OBOR is actually any good. They will have to demonstrate the benefit somewhere soon. While many nations have attended OBOR summit, it does mean they are all going to GUBO- Except Bakis.

Now what if one of the OBOR project runs foul of local laws and sensitivities, what will the other nations do? They will think again.

How can India throw a spanner into the works?

Provide parallel alternative small scale example of an infrastructure project where Chinese OBOR is going. We wont waste time with terrorist republic of Bakistan, so what alternative place?

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby sivab » 26 Jun 2017 22:07

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/sta ... 4677604352

Global Times‏Verified account @globaltimesnews

#Indian troops’ provocation in border areas has violated Sino-Indian consensus and endangered peace: Chinese MoD

Image

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Rudradev » 28 Jun 2017 00:19

I want to point out something.

The Western (specifically US and British) deep-state establishments have begun a renewed Psyops offensive against PRC.

US State Dept has listed China for the first time among the"Worst Human Trafficking Offenders", alongside Russia, Iran, and Syria (Myanmar and Zimbabwe meanwhile were "upgraded" to a higher-tier "watchlist").

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/27/politics/ ... index.html

What is going on here?

Trump recently tweeted that
"While I greatly appreciate the efforts of President Xi & China to help with North Korea, it has not worked out. At least I know China tried!"


This was taken to mean that Trump was pro-China and had essentially succumbed to the PRC's claims of supremacy in Asia. Trump's support for OBOR, and his scaling down (at least in rhetorical terms) of the Obama-era "Pivot to Asia" activity in the Indo-China Sea, seemed also to point in this direction.

But now we are seeing the "stick" being deployed in addition to the carrot.

Is this a low-cost, low-risk means of keeping the Chinese on the defensive regarding their "image"? PRC by all accounts has a Paki-like obsession with what others think of them, with "loss of face" etc. The West can keep deploying these sorts of psyops declarations through its various agencies, and China can be induced to jump through hoops to get them expunged or reversed.

*****
Also of note, though arguably less important: here is the latest story from a newly instituted "China Desk" of the BBC World Service (syndicated to NPR and many other stations across the planet). The "China Desk" apparently specializes in gutter-inspecting "human rights" stories regarding PRC. BBC of course is a direct mouthpiece of the UK Deep State.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40403416
Liu Xiaobo: Jailed Chinese dissident has terminal cancer

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ShauryaT » 28 Jun 2017 00:53

RD: My view is Britain is pivoting to China. They have taken a lead on this for about 10 years now. Their participation in the China led AIIB is an example but there are other things too. The US is likely to follow Britiain's lead. The game is changing.

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China Watch Thread-I

Postby Peregrine » 28 Jun 2017 02:57

US-India bonhomie rattles China, Pakistan

WASHINGTON: New Delhi's purported adversaries clearly feel the pinch of the US-India clinch. Both Beijing and Islamabad reacted sharply on Tuesday to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump explicitly and implicitly identifying Pakistan and China respectively as nettlesome adversaries.

While Pakistan was publicly called out for backing terrorist groups and received a drubbing both in the joint statement and a warning by way of designating Kashmiri extremist Syed Salahuddin as a global terrorist, the US-India position on China was more nuanced. Without once mentioning China by name, Trump twitted Beijing for not being helpful in bringing North Korea to heel, while lavishing praise on India's little known contribution towards making sanctions against Pyongyang a success. India's salience in the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific region were referred to several times and the US also backed India's role in Afghanistan.

Trump also spoke about a joint naval exercise in the Indian Ocean that will involve Japanese, Indian and American warships, coming on the heels of his administration selling Guardian drones to India that will enable New Delhi to keep a check on Chinese activity in the Indian Ocean. A Senior White House official was cited telling the US media that Trump's display of warmth towards Modi was at least partly aimed at President Xi Jinping of China, who has disappointed the US President in recent weeks by failing to impose more pressure on North Korea to curb its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

China's guidance to Pakistan and North Korea in the nuclear weapons and ballistic missile sphere has long resulted in an axis of nuclear powers.

The US-India bonhomie, coming on the heels of a rather more stiff meeting between Trump and China's President Xi Jinping in Mar-a-Lago last week, sent the Chinese media into a tizzy. ''To assume a role as an outpost country in the US' strategy to contain China is not in line with India's interests. It could even lead to catastrophic results,'' fumed China's state-run newspaper Global Times, while maintaining that U.S was cozying up to India to ratchet up geopolitical pressure on Beijing.

Meanwhile, China's client state Pakistan, which has been in the American bad books for several years now for its backing of terrorism and has been condemned to the doghouse by the Trump administration, raged against the global terrorist designation tagged on Syed Salahuddin, a Kashmiri radical who is coddled by Islamabad.

''The designation of individuals supporting the Kashmiri right to self-determination as terrorists is completely unjustified,'' Pakistan's foreign office spokesperson Nafees Zakaria said in a statement quoted in the local media, even as the Trump administration has signaled it may resume drone strikes and more punitive aid cuts because of Islamabad's recalcitrance in reigning in terror groups.

However, it was not all hunky-dory for Modi and India despite the positive optics. The U.S President made sure to remind him in public the trade imbalance between the two sides, while declining to commit himself to visit India at Modi's invitation (they will meet again at Hamburg at the G20 summit just ten days from now).

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Rudradev » 28 Jun 2017 03:15

Peregrine wrote:US-India bonhomie rattles China, Pakistan
...

The US-India bonhomie, coming on the heels of a rather more stiff meeting between Trump and China's President Xi Jinping in Mar-a-Lago last week, sent the Chinese media into a tizzy.

...'


What is Rajghatta talking about? This is a report from today, June 27. Have Xi and Trump met in Mar-a-Lago (or anywhere else) since April?

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby SSridhar » 28 Jun 2017 04:47

That's a mistake in reference to the meet 2 months back.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Y I Patel » 28 Jun 2017 08:23

The likely cause of confrontation in Sikkim may be the Chinese highway S204 to Yadong - and thence, as a smaller road, on to Nathu La. This highway skirts through disputed territory with Bhutan and is easy to spot in Google Maps. In this case, the alignment seems to be easiest along the ridgeline that marks the boundary between Bhutan and China, and the Chinese, in their typical way, must have gone ahead with the illegal land grab just because they could. The importance of the situation is the ready analogy to the Aksai Chin highway, and given that it is right there in Google maps, this is not something that happened recently.

Another ready parallel to the Aksai Chin highway situation is that GoI knew about construction activity long before the issue was raised with China in '58 or '59. In this apparently more recent case, did the GoI make an issue when the highway (S204) was being built? There are pointers that it may have. Recollect that around the 2007-09 time frame, there was one of the most serious confrontations over a Chinese incursion into Bhutan. Sikkim now has a settled border, but even before that the region was very quiet from '70s right through Op Parakram, when the entire Eastern Command was severely denuded of divisions (including the entire 3 Corps) to augment formations in Kashmir and along the IB with Pak. That all changed quite dramatically in 2007-09 and the decision to start raising new divisions and the mountain strike corps practically came as a bolt from the blue. Given the usual GoI pace, the new divs for 3 and 4 Corps were raised at a lightening pace, and even the process of raising the mountain strike corps was underway before it hit a wall. In hindsight, the new raisings in the Eastern Command after what seemed to be a very peaceful couple of decades must be because the GoI decided (wisely) to avoid a knee jerk immediate response and build up force levels before precipitating a crisis.

So it is quite possible that this current confrontation is because the other shoe finally dropped - I'm willing to bet good money that the offending stretch in Bhutan has now been damaged, and that more than a couple of IA BDEs or maybe even a full div from 33 Corps is there in case this crisis escalates. And it goes without saying that since India started this, the Army and ITBP must be on very high alert along the entire LAC in anticipation of a response. If this conjecture is true, then this is potentially an extremely serious confrontation. The timing of the trigger seems to have been calculated at a politically sensitive time for China, what with all the recent hoopla over OBOR. Given how unambiguous and negative India's position is on OBOR, I was thinking that there might be some dramatic development at around that time to send the Chinese a strong message. So I am thinking the damage to the highway must have been carried out a few weeks back, and the Chinese chose to retaliate now, when the India-US meeting was taking place.

So will this escalate? Maybe not, because GoI picked a good time. China wants badly for things to be peaceful and settled right now, so that it can convince OBOR partners that everything is sweetness and light. An India verbally opposing OBOR and CPEC is one thing, but an India actively playing spoiler, which it has never done so far, is entirely new, unprecedented and unexpected. The initial Chinese response is much more suitable for a timepass incursion along Aksai Chin where such dramabaazi can be easily managed. If they use the same tactics of "destroying" bunkers by rearranging the stonework along a settled border, IA does not have to do much to get away with what it is doing. On the other hand, there is still danger that they will do something more serious to save face, now that they have announced to the whole world that India started it by destroying their road in the "Sikkim" region. Note the clever play on words, especially if the road involved is actually passing through disputed territory with Bhutan and has uncomfortable parallels to other Chinese highways through disputed territory.

If all of this is true, then I think that it is in keeping with the New India that publicly punishes Pakistan for terror attacks. This is a bold and assertive move, and it can develop into something a lot more serious that the usual incursions.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Paul » 28 Jun 2017 20:23

The message to China is: " You mess with Bhutan, You have to deal with India first" !

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China Watch Thread-I

Postby Peregrine » 30 Jun 2017 01:01

X Posted on Managing Chinese Threat Thread

China 'highly alarmed' after reports of Australian spying

BEIJING: China said Thursday it was "highly alarmed" over threats to its national security, after a state-run newspaper accused Australia of spying on the country and stealing its technology.

An employee of China's national security department told the Global Times that Australian intelligence agents "in disguise" collect information from Chinese people overseas or "even encourage them to subvert China".

The report, published on the nationalistic newspaper's front page, comes weeks after Beijing rejected allegations of interference in Australian politics.

"We are highly alarmed and remain alert on other countries' actions to endanger China's national security and state interests," foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said at a regular briefing.

"(The report) reminds me that recently the Australian media also played up reports on so-called Chinese spying."

According to the Global Times, Australian agents closely monitor Chinese people and the embassy in Australia to foil "Chinese spy threats".

"In global covert struggles, Australia had never played the role of victim," the unidentified staffer was quoted as saying.

"However, they are wantonly working on intelligence about China and groundlessly accusing China of spying on them. The logic is ridiculous."

The Australian government did not immediately respond to the allegations.

The article followed an Australian media report this month that the country's intelligence agencies had major concerns China was interfering with Australian institutions and using political donations to gain access.

An investigation by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation and Fairfax Media found the country's political elite had been warned two years ago about taking donations from two billionaires with links to the Chinese Communist Party.

But despite being cautioned by the nation's spy agency both the Liberal and Labor parties continued accepting substantial sums of cash.

The probe showed that property developers Huang Xiangmo and Chau Chak Wing, or their associates, had donated around AUS$6.7 million ($5 million) to political parties over a decade.

Following the report Canberra announced it had launched an inquiry into espionage laws and foreign government interference.

China's foreign ministry has called the reports "totally groundless" and said Australian media should not "waste their time on such meaningless and malicious" stories.

The Global Times article said many Chinese people have been interviewed or harassed by Australian intelligence and are required to provide information on Chinese communities and the embassy.

Some have been sent back to China to "gather information", the report said.

It also accused Australia of "stealing Chinese technology" and installing listening devices in China's embassy.

China's national security department could not be reached for comment as its phone number is not available to the public.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Paul » 30 Jun 2017 16:15


Tibet is China's Right Hand and Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal are its Fingers - Mao Zedong
.

China’s legendary revolutionary leader Mao Zedong, standing in front of Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in the 1950s, talked about Tibet and the Himalayas: “Xizang (Tibet) is China’s right hand’s palm, which is detached from its five fingers — of Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal (formerly NEFA). As all of these five are either occupied by, or under the influence of India, it is China’s responsibility to ‘liberate’ the five to be rejoined with Xizang (Tibet).”

Beijing and New Delhi are two capitals of two of the most populated nations of the world, with the Himalayas forming the most formidable barrier to an extensive interaction between them. The Himalayas, however, have much more to do with Hindu history, culture and the traditions of South Asia than that of China owing to its remote distance from China. Beijing owes its glorious rice culture more to the Hwang Ho and Yangtze rivers than to the Himalayan rivers of the Sindhu, Ganga and Brahmaputra.

Just like Jerusalem is the cradle of both Christianity and Judaism, and Mecca and Medina the centre of Islam, the Himalayas and its waters have played a seminal role in the rise, growth and development of Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism and Sikhism. The Chinese owe the origin and development of their glorious civilisation more to the twin non-Himalayan river valleys of the Hwang Ho and Yangtze than to the remote Himalayas, the abode of snow. The name originates from the combination of two Sanskrit words “him (snow)” and “alay (abode)”.

Let’s study the distance of the Himalayan “five fingers” from the two capitals of New Delhi and Beijing. Leh (Ladakh) is 1,258 km by road from Delhi and 3,490 km from Beijing; Kathmandu (Nepal) is 1,160 km from Delhi and 3,160 km from Beijing; From Nathu-La (Sikkim) to Delhi is 1,636 km, while to Beijing it is 2,888 km; Thimphu (Bhutan) is 1,782 km from Delhi and 2,820 km from Beijing; and lastly, from Tawang (Arunachal) Delhi is 2,315 km, while Beijing is 2,640 km from there.

Indeed, the “five fingers” of Beijing are rather too far when compared to the distance thereof from Delhi. Nevertheless, let us see things from Beijing’s point of view as well, in the light of its BRI/CPEC and SCO objectives. Several of its “economic” projects have been given different names to keep the non-Chinese guessing. That is the Chinese way, which could be to look different without being different. Why? Because the goal is always fixed. It’s the way to the acquisition of land and money, in the old Chinese tradition of kowtowing by rivals. Even when things do not exist, there is a need to make them “exist”. Almost like that of Voltaire’s logic: “Even if God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him”. The belief has to prevail. If not today, in the long term and in the long run. The Chinese can go on hammering. The wall is bound to crack and crumble inevitably one day.

Ladakh is still with India, forced Chinese part-occupation notwithstanding. Nepal is independent and pursues its policy with great élan, despite its abolition of the monarchy and the tag of being a Hindu state. Sikkim joined India on its own volition in 1975, and there doesn’t seem to be any sign of a reverse gear. Bhutan too can’t be penetrated, as it is too steadfast in its approach. The proposed Chinese embassy in Thimphu is still a long way off. Arunachal Pradesh is one of the 29 states of India, and there is little to suggest that it can be anything other than that.

Therefore, the direct approach to “liberate” the “five fingers” of Xizang needs to change to an indirect one. How? By the application of “economics”. Development, investment, people-to-people contacts, profit, infrastructure, connectivity and corridor are alluring words. The Chinese aim to entice them, cajole them, as they are all landlocked terrain. All are “helpless” at the mercy of others. They need “liberation” by or under someone. Dissatisfaction and resentment is the key to their changing sides.

To begin with, a country has to have proximity to sea outlets. Five landlocked fingers cannot operate from Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea. It is remote and turbulent. It has to be the Bay of Bengal, with its six ports of Kolkata, Haldia, Khulna, Chalna, Cox’s Bazar and Chittagong. Nathu-La to Kolkata is 727 km, Dhaka 640 km, Chittagong 900 km.

No wonder China is anxious to open its embassy in Bhutan to balance New Delhi’s influence and to breach Siliguri’s “Chicken’s Neck” of less than 80 km to reach the shoreline of the Bay of Bengal. It does not matter what it takes to achieve the so-called economic goal. It matters little whether or not turbulence is created to breach the established polity of India and reach the beaches of West Bengal and Bangladesh. It is simply “economics”!

One of the priorities is the Sino-Bhutan border “issue”. The year 2017 has seen hectic Chinese activity in Bhutan — with very little effect though. They are trying hard in the Chumbi Valley tri-junction of Bhutan, Sikkim and Tibet. The Yadong railway will also reach Kathmandu via Gyirong (Tibet). The Chinese want a railway line through Bhutan, West Bengal and Bangladesh as well. Not too soon, it appears, as tension and turbulence go on increasing in the highly vulnerable Chicken’s Neck area of India, that in turn may well contaminate all four nations in the neighbourhood — Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal. Paradoxically, however, the adverse effect on these four nations is likely to be advantageous to China.

The Chinese hopes still revolve around Mao Zedong’s unfulfilled dreams. Hence, the renewed Chinese keenness to go to the east as well as the Northeast in Indian territory. India is the gateway to all the five (landlocked) fingers. The gate must be prised open — the sooner the better. It is the all-embracing “Chinese economics”: which Beijing sees as the only way to “liberate the “five fingers”.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Paul » 30 Jun 2017 16:54

^ If Mao really said this, it could explain why the Chinese have refused to demarcate the border with India to this day. From FB

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Paul » 30 Jun 2017 17:01

Note the gel with Mackinder's heartland vs Rimland battle. The Eurasian Heartland is exerting pressure on the rimland.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby manju » 30 Jun 2017 22:41


Tibet is China's Right Hand and Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal are its Fingers - Mao Zedong

China’s legendary revolutionary leader Mao Zedong, standing in front of Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in the 1950s, talked about Tibet and the Himalayas: “Xizang (Tibet) is China’s right hand’s palm, which is detached from its five fingers — of Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal (formerly NEFA). As all of these five are either occupied by, or under the influence of India, it is China’s responsibility to ‘liberate’ the five to be rejoined with Xizang (Tibet).


It is time to harvest the hand and take it home! :rotfl:

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby sanjaykumar » 30 Jun 2017 23:07

They have. A general I think Sunderji admitted that the IA had chopped off their hands in one gruesome encounter.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ArjunPandit » 01 Jul 2017 04:40

sanjaykumar wrote:They have. A general I think Sunderji admitted that the IA had chopped off their hands in one gruesome encounter.

Here you go
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/ARMY/history/1960s/270-chola-incident.html

By this time the Chinese had taken up position, presumably because their commander had already taken a decision to escalate the incident. And one of the Chinese sentries bayoneted Gyan wounding him in the arm. The Gorkha's response was swift. Both arms of the Chinese who hit the JCO were chopped off with a Khukri. At this point the Chinese opened fire and the two sides engaged in a firefight at close range. Lance Naik Krishna Bahadur, the Post Cdr., then led a charge against the Chinese in the vicinity who were forming up for an assault. Although hit & incapacitated, he continued to harangue his men forward. Rifleman Devi Prasad Limbu directly behind his Post Cdr. was already engaged in a close quarter battle with the enemy and his Khukri took off five Chinese heads.

Pretty familiar names, Chola, Gyan...

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ArjunPandit » 01 Jul 2017 04:47

In one of the random searches this evening, came across this article on '62.
http://usiofindia.org/Article/Print/?pub=Journal&pubno=586&ano=848
Havent gone through in detail, but few things caught my eye.
1. Parallels with korean war in their strategy. Given that they havent fought any war for quite some time, they will heavily rely on their cronies, Pak and NoKo, esp Pak. Another place they can learn is Syria (directly through observation and indirectly through russians) and through some trainings
2. The signalling of chinese to declare their intent of war in the third part, was quite interesting.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby tandav » 01 Jul 2017 09:47

I keep reading about China military activities post 1950 in Korea, 1962 in India and 1970s in Vietnam and I keep wondering if Indian Armed forces /strategic community have effectively studied PLA methods and systems. It appears that Chinese have thought offensively, their leadership has acted decisively and to their credit quite innovatively utilized their own strengths of superior manpower and shorter logistics in Korea and bypassed Indian forts in their attacks in 1962. The link above makes it clear that the PLA knew the command of IA arrayed against them whereas India in 1962 did not know the PLA leadership arrayed against them. Its unlikely that PLA will use the same strategies today since their own military has at their disposal more advanced tools (but the innovation and the ability to change tactics on the fly may not have changed).

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby maxratul » 01 Jul 2017 10:39

India and China are locked in the Thucydides trap. Conflict is inevitable.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby g.sarkar » 01 Jul 2017 12:55

Arjun Panditji,
Thanks for posting the Chola incident, I have not read it for some time now, a re-read was just great. China will attack India immediately, if it was 100% sure of victory. It can not afford a defeat at all with the accompanying loss of face. It can also not afford a "win" like that of 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War.
Gautam

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Vips » 02 Jul 2017 20:39

China's launch of 'Long March-5 Y2' rocket fails.

China's attempt to launch its second heavy-lift carrier rocket 'Long March-5 Y2' on Sunday failed after abnormality was detected during the flight, official media reported.

Abnormality was detected during the flight of the rocket, which blasted off at 7:23 pm (local time) from Wenchang Space Launch Center in southern province of Hainan, state-run Xinhua news agency reported. Further investigation will be carried out, it said.

The rocket was due to carry the heaviest Shijian-18 satellite. The launch was the last test for the Long March-5 series before its mission to send the Chang'e-5 lunar probe into space in the latter half of this year, which was to return with samples.

With a weight of 7.5 tonnes, Shijian-18 is China's latest technology experiment satellite and the heaviest satellite China has ever launched into space, an earlier report by Xinhua said. It was aimed at testing China's new Dongfanghong-5 (DFH- 5) satellite platform and carry out in-orbit experiments including Q/V band satellite communication, satellite-ground laser communication technologies and an advanced Hull electric propulsion system, it said.

The Long March-5 made its maiden flight in November 2016 from Wenchang. It can carry a payload of 25 tonnes into low Earth orbit and 14 tonnes in geostationary orbit, over twice the capacity of previous Long March models.

The rocket uses environmentally friendly fuel, including kerosene, liquid hydrogen, and liquid oxygen, rather than highly toxic propellants, the report said.

In April this year, China had launched its first cargo spacecraft, Tianzhou-1, into space using the country's heaviest Long March-7 Y2 carrier rocket to dock with the orbiting experimental space station which was expected to be operationalised by 2022. Tianzhou-1 was larger and heavier than Tiangong-2, which is 10.4 meters in length and has a maximum diameter of 3.35 meters,weighing 8.6 tonnes.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby schinnas » 02 Jul 2017 21:05

ArjunPandit wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:They have. A general I think Sunderji admitted that the IA had chopped off their hands in one gruesome encounter.

Here you go
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/ARMY/history/1960s/270-chola-incident.html

By this time the Chinese had taken up position, presumably because their commander had already taken a decision to escalate the incident. And one of the Chinese sentries bayoneted Gyan wounding him in the arm. The Gorkha's response was swift. Both arms of the Chinese who hit the JCO were chopped off with a Khukri. At this point the Chinese opened fire and the two sides engaged in a firefight at close range. Lance Naik Krishna Bahadur, the Post Cdr., then led a charge against the Chinese in the vicinity who were forming up for an assault. Although hit & incapacitated, he continued to harangue his men forward. Rifleman Devi Prasad Limbu directly behind his Post Cdr. was already engaged in a close quarter battle with the enemy and his Khukri took off five Chinese heads.

Pretty familiar names, Chola, Gyan...


Is there a net assessment on the casualties on both sides regarding the Chola incident?

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Iyersan » 02 Jul 2017 21:19

January 19, 2017 12:00 pm JST
Brahma Chellaney: India should rein in China's dangerous antics in Tibet

New Delhi's accomodative stance has encouraged dangerous Chinese adventurism

While it has become fashionable to pair China and India as if they were joined at the hip, it is often forgotten that the two have little in common politically, economically or culturally.

Comparatively speaking, the countries are new neighbors. The vast Tibetan plateau, encompassing an area greater than Western Europe, separated the two civilizations throughout history, limiting their interaction to sporadic cultural and religious contact.

It was only after China's annexation of Tibet in 1951 that Chinese army units appeared for the first time on India's Himalayan frontiers. This was followed 11 years later by a war in which China's battlefield triumph sowed the seeds of greater rivalry.

Today, Tibet remains at the center of the China-India divide, fueling territorial disputes, diplomatic tensions and feuds over river-water flows. For example, Beijing was harshly critical of New Delhi in December for allowing the exiled Dalai Lama -- who has lived in India since fleeing Tibet in 1959 -- to visit the presidential palace for a public event and meet President Pranab Mukherjee, India's head of state.

Further diplomatic protests from Beijing are expected in the coming weeks when the Dalai Lama begins a religious tour of Arunachal Pradesh, a sprawling Indian state famous for its virgin forests and soaring mountain ranges. China claims the territory, which it has called "South Tibet" since 2006.

Tibet is an issue of relevance far beyond China and India. With its lofty terrain, featuring the world's tallest peaks and largest concentration of glaciers and riverheads, the Tibetan plateau influences atmospheric circulation -- and therefore climate and weather patterns -- across the northern hemisphere.

China has turned this resource-rich but ecologically fragile plateau into the center of its mining and dam-building activities. With the plateau warming nearly twice as fast as the rest of the world, glacial recession in the eastern Himalayas and the thawing of permafrost in Tibet are increasingly apparent.

WEDGE ISSUE The environmental crisis haunting the plateau threatens the ecological well-being of multiple nations, including those dependent on the 10 major Asian river systems that originate on the Tibetan massif. But the environmental problems are dwarfed by political strains in the region.

China lays claim to vast tracts of Indian Himalayan land on the basis of purported Tibetan ecclesial or tutelary links. Tibet's long shadow over China-India relations is also apparent from the Dalai Lama's lengthy residence in the Indian hill resort of Dharamsala, the seat of the Tibetan government-in-exile.

The fall of Tibet represented the most far-reaching geopolitical development in modern Indian history. It gave China borders with India, Bhutan and Nepal for the first time, and facilitated a Sino-Pakistani strategic axis by opening a common land corridor.

New Delhi's accomodative stance has encouraged dangerous Chinese adventurism

The impact has been exacerbated by Indian blunders that have compounded the country's "China problem" and undercut its leverage. New Delhi was one of the first capitals to embrace the Mao Zedong-led regime in Beijing after the Chinese Communist Party seized power in 1949. But just months later, Mao began annexing the historical buffer of Tibet, eliminating India's outer line of defense by 1951.

Led by Jawaharlal Nehru, a romantic who viewed China sympathetically as a fellow post-colonial state, India went on to surrender extraterritorial rights in Tibet inherited from the U.K., its former colonial master. It also acknowledged the "Tibet region of China," without getting Beijing to recognize the existing Indo-Tibetan border. Ironically, the pact that recognized China's rights in Tibet was named after the Tibetan Buddhist doctrine of Panchsheela, the five principles of peaceful coexistence.

Almost half a century later, India went further still, using the legal term "recognize" in a document signed by the heads of government of the two countries in 2003 that formally accepted Tibet as "part of the territory of the People's Republic of China."

DICTATING TERMS Meanwhile, China has sought to crimp the Dalai Lama's freedom within a democratic India. Initially, Beijing objected to official discussions between the Dalai Lama and foreign heads of state or government. But China has progressed over the years to protesting his presence at any state-linked event, and even visits to other countries, such as a purely religious trip to Mongolia in November.

The New Delhi event that riled Beijing in December was organized for children's welfare by Nobel laureates, a group that includes the Dalai Lama. Demanding that India respect China's "core interests" and refrain from causing "any disturbance" to bilateral ties, China couched its protest in imperious terms. Instead of censuring Beijing for seeking to dictate terms to India, New Delhi responded almost apologetically that the meeting was a "nonpolitical event."

The more accommodative that India has become of China's claims and concerns over Tibet, the more assertive Beijing has been in upping the ante. For example, in ratcheting up the Arunachal Pradesh issue in recent years, Beijing has contended that the region -- almost three times larger than Taiwan -- must be "reunified" with the Chinese state to respect Tibetan sentiment. The flimsy basis of its historical claim has been exposed by the Dalai Lama, who has publicly declared that Arunachal was never part of Tibet.

By bringing its position on Tibet into alignment with China's claim, India has not won Chinese gratitude; rather, it has boosted Beijing's clout and encouraged Chinese re-engineering of transboundary river flows, on which India is critically dependent.

According to Aquastat, a database maintained by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, 718 billion cu. meters of surface water a year flows out of the Tibetan plateau and the Chinese regions of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia to neighboring countries. Of that amount, 48.33% runs directly into India. In addition, Nepal's Tibet-originating rivers drain into India's Gangetic basin. So no country is more vulnerable than India to China's current focus on building cascades of large dams on international rivers.

India can reclaim its Tibet leverage by emphasizing that its acceptance of China's claim over Tibet hinged on a grant of genuine autonomy to the region. Instead of autonomy, Tibet has experienced tightening political control and increasing repression, triggering grassroots desperation and a wave of self-immolations.

A braver Indian approach would include showing Tibet in its official maps in a different color from the rest of China and using expressions such as "the Indo-Tibet border," instead of "the India-China border." Using measures such as this, India can subtly reopen Tibet as an outstanding issue without having to formally renounce any of its previously stated positions.

Whatever it does, India must not shy away from urging China to begin a process of reconciliation and healing in Tibet. Having ceased to be a political buffer between China and India, Tibet can still become a political bridge between the world's demographic titans if Beijing initiates a process of genuine reconciliation there to ease the feelings of estrangement among Tibetans. Otherwise, Tibet will remain at the core of the China-India divide.

India has played an important role in aiding the survival of Tibetan culture by funding Tibetan schools for the large number of exiles it hosts. By recalibrating its policy, India could elevate Tibet as a strategic and environmental issue that impinges on international security and climatic and hydrological stability.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ArjunPandit » 03 Jul 2017 03:50

schinnas wrote:
Is there a net assessment on the casualties on both sides regarding the Chola incident?


Wiki has this combined with Nathu la incident around the same time, quoting MoD/parliament statement
The Indian Defence Minister informed the Parliament that Indian losses in the two border incidents were 88 killed and 163 wounded, while the
Chinese casualties· were estimated to be 300 killed and 450 wounded in Nathula firing, and 40 in Chola.

It gives a reference to loksabha debates as well.

Seems like chinese are itching/probing for a war/conflict/battle that they can win and proclaim to be superpower. However, the fact is their protracted baring of fangs have given or will give others who keep their eyes open adequate time to prepare

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China Watch Thread-I

Postby Peregrine » 03 Jul 2017 14:53

Fully Posted on the OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications Thread

Learning with the Times: China doesn't accept the McMahon line agreed on by Britain & Tibet

Cheers Image

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby chetak » 03 Jul 2017 15:17

maxratul wrote:India and China are locked in the Thucydides trap. Conflict is inevitable.


both are also rapidly rising economic powers along with the obvious military dimension. china is agressive but India is relatively passive. Indian troops are battle hardened by circumstances and train specifically for specialized high altitude warfare.

the Thucydides trap as enuinciated may not be directly applicable here. For all their bluster, the hans are cautious by nature where they do not clearly have the overwhelming advantage.

Viet Nam has f(uked with their minds. Besides, the hans have a lot of enemies eager to payback in the same coin and make the hans lose face globally which means eleven may be soon seeing the inside of some prison cell for tanking both face and the economy. He is bidding for his third term which by itself is unprecedented so he does not lack for enemies inhouse.

Their OBOR/CPEC/silk route gambit goes for a toss with interest costs alone reaching stratospheric levels so conflict is not an option. Unfinished projects will hurt the han reputation. they seem to be stretched quite thin at this time.

Hence the Thucydides trap scenario has to be modified to suit the situation of the two asian protagonists.

The IOR and the SCS situations will also kick in with multiple interested players going up against the hans.

It would be interesting to game this.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Anurag » 03 Jul 2017 18:26

China heavy duty rocket fails mid-flight

https://www.engadget.com/2017/07/03/chi ... id-flight/

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby chola » 03 Jul 2017 18:52

g.sarkar wrote:Arjun Panditji,
Thanks for posting the Chola incident, I have not read it for some time now, a re-read was just great.


I did not know that the fistfight I had with a few drunken frat boys in Manhattan's Chinatown had made it to BR's archives. But thanks for the props, Saar!

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Vivek K » 03 Jul 2017 19:09

Anurag wrote:China heavy duty rocket fails mid-flight

https://www.engadget.com/2017/07/03/chi ... id-flight/


Interesting - Japan wants to put a man on the moon before China does!

Some form of collaborative effort between India and Japan may help.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ArjunPandit » 03 Jul 2017 19:09

Chola!
Keep the khukri dripping and unsheathed! Seems like it may be used anytime..

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby chola » 03 Jul 2017 19:19

ArjunPandit wrote:Chola!
Keep the khukri dripping and unsheathed! Seems like it may be used anytime..


I prefer the tamil arruval. Good for chopping heads and coconuts onlee.

Image

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Iyersan » 03 Jul 2017 19:26

chola wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:Chola!
Keep the khukri dripping and unsheathed! Seems like it may be used anytime..


I prefer the tamil arruval. Good for chopping heads and coconuts onlee.

Image

Har har Mahadev!!!,

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Philip » 03 Jul 2017 20:49

V.good omen for India,failure of the (edited out slur; Philip please refrain - JE Menon) rocket
It bodes ill for China.They are now in a cleft stick.Back down or get their backside tanned by India.Any Chinese adventurism with India now will reveal its true hegemonistic interests globally,alarm smaller nations of Asia and will see it isolated internationally.

Both the US and Russia ,at the very least will deny support for China,both military and diplomatic.The Indo-Russia strat. relationship is far deeper than that with China.Only Pak and NoKo will bat for China.Moreover,India may very well use either or both of the "T"cards in its hand.OBOR will collapse if China crosses the red line in the Himalayas.

China also runs the risk of a humiliating mil defeat,at the very least a failure to intimidate India and achieve its land grab goal.What the Chinese fear most is loss of face.They are actually scared sh*tless about simple demos in China and Hong Kong.Emperor XI Gins has no clothes.There is no question that India will savage Chinese shipping in the IOR Malacca Straits should they invade.The sight on global telly of Chinese ships burning at sea will see China's reputation and credibility as a mil power sink to Davy Jones'locker.Vietnam destroyed China's mil reputation for sev decades.It is now India's turn to teach China a lesson
Last edited by Philip on 03 Jul 2017 21:01, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Singha » 03 Jul 2017 20:53

Kaal bhairava muhurtam approaches

The pure annihilation form of Shiva....

People speak of him only in hushed tones

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby sanjaykumar » 03 Jul 2017 23:15

No need for khukris at all. If Chinese are so great, why can't they read the ravings of inconsequential Indians, on the web?

Will the empire fall? ( he asks rhetorically).

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby chetak » 03 Jul 2017 23:59

Peregrine wrote:Fully Posted on the OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications Thread

Learning with the Times: China doesn't accept the McMahon line agreed on by Britain & Tibet

Cheers Image


they want to realign to absorb arunachal pradesh.

the whole standoff currently is to move the mcmahon line to a position suitable to them so as to lay claim to vast stretches of India's land

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Bade » 04 Jul 2017 00:53

^^^ Then India be ready for fireworks...as they cannot get vast stretches by just posing along the boundary with a slow creep.

The only way for them to get Arunachal again is by taking over the whole of Bhutan or bringing it under their influence. Nepal is also a similar project in the works for them. India then will be left with no other choice but to fight for bringing both Nepal and Bhutan under the Indian Union as new states in such a scenario with a heavy price to pay in the present. Without doing that now, the price will be exacted later in any case by China if India cedes control of both these countries to China. The choice is clear, fight now and keep what is yours.


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