China Watch Thread-I

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yensoy
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby yensoy » 06 Jul 2017 15:54

There are a lot of misunderstandings in some of the above posts.

1. China is not falling apart. There is a huge amount of debt, and massive social inequities; but the country as such won't collapse. Nor will the Party unless XI oversteps his mandate. By all measures, the Party has delivered. People are largely beneficiaries and have got accustomed to the patron state.
2. Eleven's own future is shakier. A lot of crises are self-manufactured. There is plenty of resentment in the party ranks with the various purges which have been above and beyond the ordinary.
3. Forget about nuclear war; or even all-out sub-nuclear war - it's not going to happen.
4. The size of the economy very much drives the military. The real economy is what pays for shiny toys. Unless we want to go the Fat boy Kim way.
5. In some ways the current Indian action is the exact opposite of war. Our intent is to ensure that Dolkam is not used for war, and for that we are enforcing the no-grab zone. A stitch in time saves nine. If such strong action is not taken today, this will be a much bigger disadvantage for us later.
6. China respects show of strength and derides show of sympathy/reasonableness. That is generally true for the country and people at large. We have to draw the line, be reasonable about its legality and be fully prepared to defend it. Again, demonstration of Indian resolve will prevent future escalations and miscalculations.
7. It is not in our interests to go to war. It is not even in our calculations or intentions. It will be China which decides to go to war if it opens fire on our soldiers, at which point we take out G219 and the Karakoram Highway.

anupmisra
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby anupmisra » 06 Jul 2017 16:00

Separatist movements in sugarland:

1. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
2. Manchukuo
3. Tibet
4. Xinjiang
5. Hong Kong

I also hear that people of Macau are not that happy even thought they look happy!

Singha
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Singha » 06 Jul 2017 16:02

>>and no need for loss of face for Beijing.

it is necessary for peking to lose face bigtime on this one, to curb its pushing tendency.

if they are allowed to withdraw from the monkey trap without loss of face, they will back soon enough in another sector.

having painted themselves into a corner with daily threats, its upto them to lose face and slink away or lose a border war.

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China Watch Thread-I

Postby Peregrine » 06 Jul 2017 18:22

X Posted on the Managing Chinese Threat

US-China gap on North Korea widening; Donald Trump mulls sanctions on Chinese companies

BEIJING: President Donald Trump's hopes for China's help with restraining North Korea appear to have gone nowhere, with the sides growing further apart as their approaches and concerns diverge.

China shows no sign of caving to US pressure to tighten the screws on Pyongyang, while the North's recent missile tests have done little to rattle Beijing, in contrast to the anxiety sparked in Washington. China's bottom line continues to hold fast: No to any measures that might topple Kim Jong Un's hard-line communist regime.

"There's been a lot of wishful thinking on the US side that China was coming around in its approach," said John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul.

Trump seemed to think he'd found a partner on North Korea in Chinese President Xi Jinping following their April summit in Florida. Yet, North Korea continued to test missiles and China continued to keep open, and even expand, economic channels with Pyongyang. By this week, he bloom was well and truly off the rose.

"Perhaps China will put a heavy move on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all!'' Trump tweeted on Tuesday, as if still holding out for a Hail Mary from Beijing. The next day, he seemed requited to the facts: ``Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40% in the first quarter. So much for China working with us _ but we had to give it a try."

Where persuasion hasn't worked, Trump's administration has turned to threats. Washington's UN ambassador Nikki Haley warned Wednesday that China's trade with the US could suffer if it didn't help out following Pyongyang's successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile. Haley said that "much of the burden of enforcing UN sanctions rests with China," which accounts for 90 percent of trade with North Korea.

The US has already blacklisted one Chinese bank accused of illicit dealings with North Korea and is penalizing a Chinese shipping company and two Chinese individuals accused of facilitating illegal activities by the North. US officials say they plan to look at other Chinese entities as possible targets of so-called secondary sanctions.

Already on Monday, Xi appeared to respond to the downturn in ties, warning in a phone call with Trump that "some negative factors" were hurting the hurting the relationship.

Although Beijing is far from happy with the current situation, and relations between Beijing and Pyongyang are getting "colder and colder," China will remain resistant to any approach to Pyongyang other than a multilateral one, especially one that involved the United Nations, said Niu Jun, an expert at Peking University in Beijing.

North Korea's missile tests, meanwhile, aren't seen as such a concern because China itself doesn't feel threatened, Niu said. "For China, it's a question of regional imbalance, of contradictions between the sides," Niu said.

In keeping with that sense of threat level, China has counseled a calm approach centered on negotiations and bilateral give-and-take. That is seen most prominently in what has become known as the "dual suspension" proposal whereby North Korea suspends its nuclear and missile tests in return for the US and South Korea suspending large-scale military exercises that Pyongyang sees as rehearsal for an invasion.

That idea, which originated with Pyongyang, has been rejected by the US and some experts see it as a ploy by Beijing to avoid committing itself. "It requires nothing on China's part, so it's easy for them to make such a proposal," Delury said.

Meanwhile, a fundamental disagreement over the utility of sanctions remains a major obstacle to further cooperation, said Tong Zhao, an associate at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, a think tank in Beijing.

The US seems to believe that sanctions must be so tough as to threaten the survival of the Pyongyang regime and force them to end their programmes. Yet, by leaving Kim feeling even more under threat, ending their programs might be the last thing Pyongyang does, Tong said. "China still doesn't understand the American logic," he said.

Despite poor relations between Xi and Kim, China remains heavily invested in the North Korean regime. It acts as a buffer with the South and the 30,000 American troops stationed there, and remains a reliable, if isolated communist ally. Chinese companies benefit from a lack of competition in the North and worries over the Kim regime distract from China's own controversial actions in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

The collapse of the regime, on the other hand, would bring a set of unknowns _ civil war, loose nukes, refugees flowing across the Chinese border and US and South Korean troops on the Yalu River _ none of which are particularly appetizing to Beijing.

That China sees relatively little reason to act on North Korea is born out also in its concerns that events on the peninsula are overshadowing other aspects of the US-China relationship.

"You can't say that they're coming closer on North Korea, but not everything has to do with that," said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Beijing's Renmin University.

"It's not good to have everything else crushed under the issue of North Korea," he said.

Cheers Image

Philip
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Philip » 06 Jul 2017 21:16

The US was fooling itself in imagining that China would rein in NoKo.NoKo and its hyperventilating is all part of China's strategy to divert attention to the real war games that China is undertaking in the Asia-Pacific-IOR region.China has two "joined at the bum" allies,Pak and NoKo.Both have been recipients of its nuclear and missile largesse and used by it from time to time,to keep the west,India and Asian democracies at bay,while it scooped up many islands in the Indo-China Sea,built mil facilities on them including airstrips,etc.Fait accompli.

The US has to penalise China and lift the cloth covering China's N-proliferation,terrorist support,etc.using Pak and NoKo.Its hegemonistic agedna must be both exposed and exterminated. Eco sanctions in line with those imposed upon NoKo a must.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ramana » 06 Jul 2017 21:22

Philip, Similar commentary is emerging from US chatteratti too that Trump mistook Xi's resolve to deliver on NoKo.
What is forgotten is that this diversion on wrong road took place about 25 years ago during Clinton Presidency.
The climate for Korean unification which would solve this issue was there then. He chose to keep them separate to please his China policy.

During his term, NoKo supplied long range missiles to Pakistan and Clinton Admin was amused and looked askance.
Instead they talked about Sagarika and other missiles India was developing as justification.


Now shoe is on other foot and pinches.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 06 Jul 2017 21:53

yensoy wrote:There are a lot of misunderstandings in some of the above posts.

1. China is not falling apart. There is a huge amount of debt, and massive social inequities; but the country as such won't collapse. Nor will the Party unless XI oversteps his mandate. By all measures, the Party has delivered. People are largely beneficiaries and have got accustomed to the patron state.
2. Eleven's own future is shakier. A lot of crises are self-manufactured. There is plenty of resentment in the party ranks with the various purges which have been above and beyond the ordinary.
.....


Yensoy sarr. I am quoting two of your points:
2) 11's future. Totally agree. The key to understanding the Dragon is understanding power factions within the CC.
1) This one I don't quite view similarly. I could very well be wrong but today China increasingly resembles the Soviet economy. Looks unbeatable but had same structural problems. Remember even as late as 1979 western economists were singing paeans to the strength of the Planned Economy Model.

Just my 2 naya paisa

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby JE Menon » 06 Jul 2017 21:56

Plus, I'm sure the US has not forgotten that China has for long been using it's NoKoPak as cat's paws against India and Japan, and it is not likely to stop until it is made to. If it does, how else is it going to project itself as the pre-eminent power in Asia if Japan and India are not tied down by these nuclear proliferated nuisances. That's exactly why China proliferated nuclear technology to these two countries, and that's why it is using them with impunity and plausible deniability. But by playing that game though, what it has done is created adversaries out of countries that were looking to be partners. Sun Tzu will by tzhitting in his grave.

yensoy
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby yensoy » 06 Jul 2017 22:47

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:Yensoy sarr. I am quoting two of your points:
2) 11's future. Totally agree. The key to understanding the Dragon is understanding power factions within the CC.
1) This one I don't quite view similarly. I could very well be wrong but today China increasingly resembles the Soviet economy. Looks unbeatable but had same structural problems. Remember even as late as 1979 western economists were singing paeans to the strength of the Planned Economy Model.
Just my 2 naya paisa


There is a lot we can say and analyze about the Chinese economy, but the fact remains that they have a huge trade surplus, huge amounts of domestic savings and massive infrastructure + well trained/conditioned population in place. The Chinese top party leadership and bureaucracy are remarkably honest in their self-appraisal within the confines of Zhongnanhai, I believe they even have a very critical internal newsletter with translations of key scholarly works & articles for internal consumption. They learn from past mistakes not only within China but worldwide, so be assured what happened to the Soviet Union most definitely will not happen to China. There is no shortage of any kind (provided you have the money to buy it), and some amount of state directed production but well within limits of affordability - in other words they can misdirect several hundred billions of dollars of their economy and still be solvent. They can fund CPEC, recover nothing, write off the loss and move on. At least for the next decade.

A look at India from the outside is even more scary - huge swathes of population fall well into the most liberal definitions of poverty, there is widespread underemployment as the population continues to grow, and several pockets of armed resistance throughout the country. There is disunity at various layers, unique challenges of caste, religious vigilantism, linguistic and racial tensions. We continue to deplete groundwater at an alarming rate, convert fertile areas of land into unplanned concrete blocks, pollute the air and what little water we have left. In all objective measures we are heading for collapse. But you know and I do, we are far from collapse.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby naruto » 06 Jul 2017 23:07

^^^ One may or may not agree about your views about Chinese economy yensoy ji, but why this barb about India on Chinese thread.

yensoy
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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby yensoy » 07 Jul 2017 00:09

No barb intended sir.

What I want to point out is that something appears very different from the outside than it is from the inside. So don't get fooled by what you read in the papers, especially in Western papers which like to paint countries & economies as heading for imminent disaster.

Oh and I am personally very troubled by the ecological devastation I witness around me :eek: That in my mind is a bigger threat to us than Pak or China.

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby g.sarkar » 07 Jul 2017 00:55

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 480024.cms
Bhutan not the sole sufferer, Beijing is bullying other nations too
BY DIPANJAN ROY CHAUDHURY, ET BUREAU | JUL 06, 2017, 11.52 PM IST
NEW DELHI: The standoff at the India-Bhutan-China trijunction may be in the news at present but Bhutan is not the only smaller neighbour that has been on the receiving end of China’s territorial ambitions over the past few decades.
Several countries in Central Asia (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan), Southeast Asia (Viet​nam, Laos and Cambodia) and East Asia (Taiwan and Japan) have been forced by China to accept either its territorial claims or loans at high interest rates, with failure to repay resulting in China acquiring ownership of projects and land.
“China’s penchant to compare its modern borders with those that existed prior to the perceived ‘historical losses’ of territories is significant to understanding of China’s current boundary issues,” said DS Rajan, a former government official who has served in China.
China’s unresolved land and maritime border disputes with its neighbours continue to hurt its relations with many countries and vitiate regional politics. It shares 22,000 km land borders with 13 neighbouring nations — the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam. Pakistan also has border with China but through PoK.
Many of China’s claims on neighbours’ territories are based on unsubstantiated and unprecedented “historical precedents” dating back centuries, as in the case of Bhutan, according to a report published in Brisbane-based China Daily Mail a few years ago. The publication follows developments in China closely. While China’s land boundary disputes with India and Bhutan remain unresolved, disputes with most of the other neighbours have been settled in its favour.
.......

Gautam

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ramana » 07 Jul 2017 01:17

^^^ Gautam, ET is talking like the Buffalo in the "Brahmin and the Tiger" story in Panchatantra.
Bhutan is our problem. If China misbehaves with others what goes our father?

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby g.sarkar » 07 Jul 2017 02:16

Ramanaji,
Unfortunately, something does go our father as Sugarland and Aryavarta are in this game forever. Any thing that affects China also concerns us. It is in China's interest to take care of its "problems" one by one to its advantage and in its own time and not allowing the "problems" to unite in a common front. China has "solved" its border problems with those nations that it wants to, others will be dealt with one by one at its pleasure. The natural solution to this type of behavior is to build military alliances of weaker nations against a stronger one. For example this was the case in WWI, which succeeded in the long run, when Germany was defeated. The NATO alliance also functions in a similar fashion. This may happen on the long run also in case of Sugarland. As China becomes more assertive, the opposition to its policies will grow and they will unite.
Gautam
PS I do not know the Panchatantra story you mentioned, could you elaborate?

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby g.sarkar » 07 Jul 2017 06:26

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/indi ... 95628.html
India responds to Chinese claim: There was no Modi-Xi meeting planned at G20
Highly-placed sources in the Modi government have told India Today that New Delhi had not made any request for a bilateral meeting between Modi and Jinping.
Shortly after China claimed a meeting between its President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G20 Summit was unlikely as Indian troops "had damaged the political foundations of bilateral relations", India responded by saying no such meeting in Hamburg was planned in the first place.
Highly-placed sources in the Modi government have told India Today that New Delhi had not made any request for a bilateral meeting between Modi and Jinping. Sources added that neither side had made any formal request for a bilateral meeting, and therefore there is no question of a meeting being cancelled. In response to a query regarding Prime Minister's schedule in Hamburg, an official spokesperson said Modi is visiting Hamburg from July 6-8 for the G20 Summit. His pre-planned bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summit are with Argentina, Canada, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, United Kingdom, and Vietnam.
......

Gautam

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Re: China Watch Thread-I

Postby ramana » 07 Jul 2017 06:48

Locking the thread for two months. Please post in the Managing China Threat thread.

Thanks,

ramana


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