Indo-UK News and Discussion - April 2013

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 24 Jun 2016 07:51

Don't let the seemingly close 48.5 Remain to 51.5 Leave fool you. The Remain areas have voted pretty heavily for Remain, and vice versa. So the country is effectively polarized, with Leave sentiment dominating in Leave areas and Remain sentiment in Remain areas.

Scotland, in particular, seems to have gone 60% for Remain and 40% for leave - maybe the gap is even more than that. Maybe London can be the capital of the new Scotland

.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 24 Jun 2016 07:57

The leave lead is deceptive. many London areas are yet to be counted.

London has a pop of around 8.5m. I can;t find how many London votes have been counted so far but the ~1m leave lead could evaporate in a blink once the remaining London start coming in.

Added later: With 73 results left - lead narrows to ~804k

ITV News has now called a victory for Leave.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 24 Jun 2016 08:01

Only nine more London areas remain to be counted. More than 20 have been declared. All but two voted to Remain, and yet Leave is leading nationwide. The remaining 9 London areas aren't likely to make any difference.

And overall, 80% of the votes have already been tallied. Those 9 London areas are more than balanced, population-wise, by some other uncounted areas to the north and east and west, which are very likely to vote leave.

And for the record, *every single* Scottish constituency has voted to Remain, with wide margins.

But Northern Ireland can still play the spoiler, looks like....

malushahi · Post by **malushahi** » 24 Jun 2016 08:07

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/ ... 8239683585

BBC Breaking News Verified account
‏@BBCBreaking

BBC forecasts UK votes to #Leave the European Union
http://bbc.in/28RVXAE #EURef #Brexit

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 24 Jun 2016 08:09

I think scots like EU very much then. This is the slap of all ME lovers and big wig experts by the people.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 24 Jun 2016 08:15

N. Ireland has voted overwhelmingly to Remain - and the overall national picture has hardly changed as a result. It's still 51.5% Leave to 48.5% Remain. So I don't think the rest of London is going to make a difference either. And now only 7 London constituencies are yet to be counted.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 24 Jun 2016 08:18

The telegraph has also called it for leave and their site keeping throwing up server side java exceptions.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 24 Jun 2016 08:23

sudarshan wrote:Only nine more London areas remain to be counted. More than 20 have been declared. All but two voted to Remain, and yet Leave is leading nationwide. The remaining 9 London areas aren't likely to make any difference.

And overall, 80% of the votes have already been tallied. Those 9 London areas are more than balanced, population-wise, by some other uncounted areas to the north and east and west, which are very likely to vote leave.

Leeds and Bradfordistan votes are yet to come in. I would expect them to overwhelmingly vote for remain..Surprised to see Birmingham vote to for leave.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 24 Jun 2016 08:25

Leeds has already voted to Remain, with a surprisingly low margin.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 24 Jun 2016 08:30

The lead is over a million. Is it possible to change such a lead now? 338 of 382 were already declared.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 24 Jun 2016 08:32

Postals are yet to be counted. British Backchod Charlatans reckon it will be leave, once those are accounted for.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 24 Jun 2016 08:33

Total eligible voters = 46.5m

Turnout = 71.73% so total voted = 33.35m

Total counted so far 28.8m

remaining to be counted = 4.5m

Leave needs another ~2m with 43 results remaining.

Its quick madrassa math which i have not checked. E & OE

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 24 Jun 2016 08:35

This is like watching a train wreck about to happen. You know it will be not a pretty sight, but it's so fascinating that one cannot take their eyes off it.

Shankk · Post by **Shankk** » 24 Jun 2016 08:36

What's the big deal? They can always apply for membership and get in if the opinion changes in future. Of course EU needs to exist by then but possible.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 24 Jun 2016 08:38

Meanwhile the fun

Nicola sturgeon uvvacha:

She also said: “If less than two years later (after the independence referendum) Scotland was to find itself taken out of the European Union against our will, because we had chosen to stay in the United Kingdom, it’s not hard to see why that might lead to a growing clamour for a further referendum.”

Let me absolutely clear, I want the vote on the 23rd of June to result in an overwhelming victory across all parts of the UK for remaining in the EU

Scottish warning for David Cameron over referendum on EU membership

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 24 Jun 2016 08:41

Bradford votes to LEAVE. Big margin too. It's all over for the Remain camp.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 24 Jun 2016 08:43

I am seeing BBC live on my laptop. Scotish leaders seems to warn UK about consiquenses of this vote. Some one said you asked us to remain in UK to be in EU and now taking us out of EU when we remained in US.

I am loving it. Did now Churchil said UK made India. I wonder who will unmake UK which is going to happen with scots leaveing.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 24 Jun 2016 08:45

sudarshan wrote:Bradford votes to LEAVE. Big margin too. It's all over for the Remain camp.

I get a feeling that the Bakistanis are voting overwhelmingly to leave, since they think that once the Euro immigrants are cut off, they can flood the country at will.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 24 Jun 2016 08:46

Prepare for Scottish referendum

Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon has said "the vote here makes clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union."

A not very subtle hint at a near-future renewed push for Scottish independence, so it can rejoin/not leave the EU.
Technically, Westminster has to allow Scotland a new referendum, and will not want to.
This, like many other things, could get interesting

The Scotts and the bourgeois voted to stay, every body else got what they wanted.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 24 Jun 2016 08:53

We already have Londonistan. Soon it will be Scotisthan when (not if) there is a second referendum there. Maybe London wants to get out of UK and have their own referendum.

My computer, in fact, showing that there is a word in English as Londonistan. Great.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 24 Jun 2016 08:56

OK, now Remain needs >70% of the remaining votes to win.

Of course, that can still happen (anything can happen), but I don't want to wait around anymore. I'll read about it tomorrow.

All I can say is, it's going to take one heck of a wave-function collapse to reverse this right now.

MurthyB · Post by **MurthyB** » 24 Jun 2016 08:57

Of-course, the depressing thing about brexit is the havoc in the markets and portfolio tomorrow. But watching all the leftist scumbags wallowing in even greater depression like the chotiners, shainins, priyamavadagopals, not to speak of their presstitute sepoys makes it somewhat worth it I suppose

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 24 Jun 2016 08:58

2 big events happening at the same time literally poles apart - Brexit and NSG. The tectonic plates are surely moving.

Ameet · Post by **Ameet** » 24 Jun 2016 09:15

We just witnessed a nation commit suicide.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 24 Jun 2016 09:17

The referendum is not legally binding. Lets see what happens in the parliament.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 24 Jun 2016 09:20

It would be a brave and perhaps foolish parliament that goes against the referendum.

The minimum period after a vote to leave would be two years. During that time Britain would continue to abide by EU treaties and laws, but not take part in any decision-making, as it negotiated a withdrawal agreement and the terms of its relationship with the now 27 nation bloc. In practice it may take longer than two years, depending on how the negotiations go.

Screambowl · Post by **Screambowl** » 24 Jun 2016 09:25

V_Raman wrote:The referendum is not legally binding. Lets see what happens in the parliament.

People are making calls to Cameroon that he should better resign now.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 24 Jun 2016 09:26

^
Nah brishits are on their destined path for poodledum under massa.

Now with the backstabbing perfidious Albion out of the group , hope French-German understanding becomes stronger to stand up to the anglosaxon hegemony represented by massa and the poodle (and other assorted atlanticists).At a later stage if Russia finally integrates into Europe via energy links ,trade and commerce - the longterm dominance of the anglosaxon bunch is irreversibly put paid.Notwithstanding China and India's emergence in the Asian sphere.

EU should now take the right lessons from the brexit vote - namely the fear of jihadi immigrants was one of the driving forcefor brexit.
A modern day reconquista , kicking out turkey finally and slamming the door shut on middle east and northafrica immigrants will put EU on a stable path.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 24 Jun 2016 09:31

According to Al-Guardina

Remain needs 108.3% of still uncounted votes to win

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Jun 2016 09:34

Ameet wrote:We just witnessed a nation commit suicide.

What a great moment to watch this unfold. I can only respond:

UK just took a big gun, aimed at their toes and pulled the trigger. Both their main political parties are gutted. The Tories will be furious at the working class who cost them their Euro engagement . Labour are panicking at UKIP and SNP eating their electorate. Their PM who just won by a landslide recently is going to be deposed. Their currency just went down the pakistan.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 24 Jun 2016 09:36

Let all the babus in Brussels to vote. I am sure they are some 5% of UK population.

We are forgetting Gibraltar. It may also want to join Spain after this vote.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 24 Jun 2016 09:36

All Aha hu Akbar

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 24 Jun 2016 09:39

UlanBatori wrote:Lead widening:
41.9% Reporting. Remain:48.9%, 5,819,095
Leave: 51.1% 6,076,476
That's what - 257K votes lead?

Mike Bird
@Birdyword
Sterling flirting with $1.40 from $1.50 five hours ago. 6.6% drop, astonishing. HSBC suggested it'll do -20%.
Gurus: Why is pound falling if UQ is heading for independence? I would think Oiro should be collapsing?

I believe the Pound is falling because UK is running a 7%+ Current Account Deficit currently and i guess all these days - the govt has been borrowing money to run their welfare state at comfy interest rates due to their presence in EU & as well as having their own currency (unlike the Euro dollars). I think - now the markets will ask for a hike in interest rates being paid on the borrowings by the UK government since this deficit gap is large.

BREXIT is quite bad for EU since it hits them right at their core aim.
Euro $ now needs to start going down.

All the above are good for both British & Euro land exporters - specifically those entities who import less of their product parts (to make their final products) in comparison to their export of finished products. I read somewhere that Tata's JLR's profits will be hit by around 1 billion US$ over next 4 years or so if BREXIT happens. Is it because the US $'s are now more costly or is it because they import a lot of their parts ?.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 24 Jun 2016 09:39

What happens next?

The Germans are angry

"This was a British vote, not a European vote. Co-operation within Europe is a question of self-assertion of the continent.

"We want a better and smarter Europe. We have to convince the people and bring Europe back to them.

"Exit negotiations should be concluded within two years at max. There cannot be any special treatment. Leave means leave."

Business leaders want the easiest terms possible [for trade and people], to prevent economic harm. But political leaders say the conditions will be brutal to discourage other states from following suit.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Jun 2016 09:45

SaraLax wrote:All the above are good for both British & Euro land exporters - specifically those entities who import less of their product parts (to make their final products) in comparison to their export of finished products. I read somewhere that Tata's JLR's profits will be hit by around 1 billion US$ over next 4 years or so if BREXIT happens. Is it because the US $'s are now more costly or is it because they import a lot of their parts ?.

UK will lose out enormously on their financial services industry, which is tailored to serve the greater EU region while also enjoying the benefit of the British legal protection and English language base. A lot of this will move to and benefit Ireland now. UK hollowed out a lot of its manufacturing industry and went all in on services, particularly financial services based around London. They'll suffer significantly when regulatory requirements force them to leave London. Brussels won't be willing to have UK quit and still have its cake.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 24 Jun 2016 09:50

The Scotts have already fired their salvo. The Dutch and French are getting twitchy

Dutch anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders called for a referendum on the Netherlands' membership in the EU following the British result.

"We want be in charge of our own country, our own money, our own borders, and our own immigration policy," he said in a statement.

Marion Le Pen of France's National Front has tweeted that it's now time to "import democracy to France:"

and

Mr Cameron is already facing up to a place in history defined by defeat on Europe, the issue he never wanted to define his leadership. But from his point of view, posterity’s verdict may get worse still. History may yet record him as the man whose European failure led to the break-up of Britain

and and

It is now clear that we can no longer speak of London as being part of England. The UK capital may sit geographically in England, but its political outlook, like its economy, is so widely different as to justify a different constitutional status. This is now the United Kingdom of England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and London.

And how long will that union remain in its current form?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Jun 2016 09:58

Scotland may force a split from UK within the next decade. The vote pattern is telling. Scotland is almost entirely Remain. Same for Northern Ireland. In England, Almost all of the country voted Leave, except for greater London area, as well as metros like Birmingham. Wales is schizophrenic - split between Remain and Leave.

United Kingdom
Born 1707
(Pretty Much) Dead 2016

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Jun 2016 10:01

99% counted. Leave: 51.8% Remain 48.2. Pound at $1.35.

nytimes.com/2016/06/25/world/europe/britain-brexit-european-union-referendum.html?_r=0

For the European Union, the result is a disaster, raising questions about the direction, cohesion and future of a bloc built on liberal values and shared sovereignty that represents, with NATO, a vital component of Europe’s postwar structure. Britain is the second-largest economy after Germany in the European Union, a nuclear power with a seat on the United Nations Security Council, an advocate of free-market economics and a close ally of the United States. The loss of Britain is an enormous blow to the credibility of a bloc already under pressure from slow growth, high unemployment, the migrant crisis, Greece’s debt woes and the conflict in Ukraine.
“The main impact will be massive disorder in the E.U. system for the next two years,” said Thierry de Montbrial, founder and executive chairman of the French Institute of International Relations. “There will be huge political transition costs, on how to solve the British exit, and the risk of a domino effect or bank run from other countries that think of leaving.”
Europe will have to “reorganize itself in a system of different degrees of association,” said Karl Kaiser, a Harvard professor and former director of the German Council on Foreign Relations. “Europe does have an interest in keeping Britain in the single market, if possible, and in an ad hoc security relationship.”

Next up:
ISISB
AoA!!

UBCNews predicts major riots at next soccer match either in UQ or on Le Continente.

Samudragupta · Post by **Samudragupta** » 24 Jun 2016 10:03

Commonwealth Union anybody...

http://www.futureforeignpolicy.com/comm ... h-meaning/

God save the queen...

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 24 Jun 2016 10:05

More people turned out for the Referendum that for the last General Elections

I say, this is the perfect time for India to exit the CHOGM and declare it irrelevant. Increase our bargaining power - we sit outside your colonial tent, here in the dusty Indian heat - come and talk to us - we may listen or not. The Commonwealth is headed by the Queen and is a reminder of British Colonisation.